Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/23/14

Dan Szymborski: Boom.

Dan Szymborski: First thing’s first, our Electoral Brawllege business.

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Dan Szymborski: Adams v. Adams!

Comment From Eminor3rd
Do you ever go to Dragons games?

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Comment From Rated Rookie
How good can Anthony Rendon be? As a ballplayer, I mean.

Dan Szymborski: Pretty darn good. He could very well have a peak that fits comfortably into the middle of Jeff Kent’s career.

Comment From Guest
Anthony Rendon is on pace for a 5.4 WAR season…and nobody is talking about him.

Dan Szymborski: RATED ROOKIE JUST DID!

Comment From kevinthecomic
Panik time in SF!!! Projections for Panik ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Search DSZymborski twitter Panik – talked about his RoS over the weekend.

Comment From Only Hugh Can Prevent Florist Friars
Are you as confused about Alex Gordon’s success as I am?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’m confused at this point. That last 4 years or so is how people expected him to play.

Comment From Krusty
Ned Yost says he is going w the hot hand in LF. Even I learned the hot hand theory is bunk, playing fantasy baseball. Can Yost really be this stupid? Oh, and note he could have said he’s going with a L/R platoon of Dyson & Maxwell, but presumably the player he deems is “hot” is going to get PA’s vs same handed pitching.

Dan Szymborski: The hot hand theory results in you having the best team last week.

Comment From Marlins Main Man
Does Chris Young (mets) get released?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve been rumored to be considering that. Of course, they said they weren’t, but baseball teams always deny something is in the works until it actually happens.

Dan Szymborski: Anthopoulos is the best at that. He’ll deny rumors that a specific trade is even being talked about and then the exact trade happens. WHAT A COINCIDENCE

Comment From Marlins Main Man
is there any player that personifies the definition of a replacement level player in your mind?

Dan Szymborski: Endy Chavez.

Comment From Matt
Hey Dan. Apart from Gattis, which catcher do you think will hit the most homers ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Santana

Comment From Ben
Who do you like best (ROS) Cishek, Perkins, Soria?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Soria, he’s been rocking it.

Comment From Captain Geech & The Shrimp Shack Shooters
Alex Wood v Houston or Iwakuma v Boston?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Iwakuma

Comment From Guest
Are we finally seeing a regression for Brad Miller?

Dan Szymborski: I certainly hate so. I hate when talented young players are struggling and I also hate when I look stupid!

Comment From Dave
What are your thoughts on Polanco so far in his first 12 games?

Dan Szymborski: Bad. Ass.

Comment From Beam Me Up
I dumped the vortex of suckitude a.k.a. Everth Cabrera for Shane Victorino, stashed Victorino in my DL slot, then picked up Kevin Gausman. Can I haz cookie?

Dan Szymborski: Gausman’s just floating around?

Comment From Sandy
Dan, what’s up with Kenley Jansen? His ERA is more than 2x his FIP, and his BABIP is .417. Is he just the unluckiest MFer in the majors, or is there something that the advanced metrics are missing?

Dan Szymborski: Non-pitchers being used as pitchers have a historical BABIP in the .330-.340 range, so I wouldn’t worry about .417 being a falloff in ability.

Comment From Bruce
When a pitcher has a 4 year career of not getting lefties out, and now a half a season of no significant splits. Is it just the sample size? How long till we can say he made some real change?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how many BF we’re talking about. Generic platoon split are generally more predictive than a player’s individual platoon splits until you get around 5 years.

Comment From Red Sux
Mookie Betts…Boston OF a mess. ETA of arrival?

Dan Szymborski: It’s gotta be soon. I think the Red Sox should throw in the towel and he’s likely past any super-two worries.

Comment From Guest
Do you think Neil Walker can continue to produce at the same rate as before he went on the DL?

Dan Szymborski: He *can* but I think his true ability is more his usual .760-.780 OPS range.

Comment From Eminor3rd
WTF is up with the demo now? Aren’t nerfs/new weapons supposed to make alternate playstyles MORE appealing? GL + Tide Turner + either Eyelander or Claidh is now clearly the best loadout. You’d onyl use sticky to camp, and in that case, you use Scottish Resistance. What is the idea here?

Dan Szymborski: Shotgunning stickies is still effective, just not quite as effective.

Dan Szymborski: The ramp-up isn’t *that* extreme.

Dan Szymborski: Pyro got the bigger issue – the axtinguisher is always a downgrade from powerjack now.

Comment From Matt
Dad Adams has to win on the account of having old man strength at every point during their mutual lives.

Comment From RBest
Your challenge: a song that captures the spirit of the World Cup. Go!

Dan Szymborski: Hmmm

Comment From Kevin
Dan, as a non-fantasy player I realize occasionally there will be a prospect I think is good that won’t get a lot of writeup because they may not have great fantasy impact, but other than the K% what’s the drawback on Michael Taylor (WAS)? Has he just not done it long enough to create more buzz?

Dan Szymborski: That’s part of it. The other part is he’s a little old for his league (and was a high-A repeater and still wasn’t exactly dominating). I think he won’t be taken truly seriously unless he does this at AAA (and he should be promoted their ASAP)

Comment From Every Tigers Fan
How well can J.D. Martinez actually hit going forward? And what do you think the Tigers outfield looks like (or should look like) once Dirks is back from his rehab assignment?

Dan Szymborski: No. I think I get yearly J.D. Martinez questions after his first month. He’s a replacement-level guy, very easily could fit my prvious question.

Dan Szymborski: OK, 30 seconds to turn down your speakers.

Dan Szymborski: (Found a song that I feel captures the World Cup)

Comment From Mat
Would a trade involving Joc Pederson (and others) for David Price make sense for the Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: I think it would. They haven’t made much of an effort to clear the field for him and at some point, they’re just wasting his time.

Comment From Billy the Goat
Got into a debate whether or not Tony Gwynn was a top 5 hitter all time. I’m pretty confident the answer is no. But I proposed a different top 5 list of most decent human beings to play baseball: 1. Jackie Robinson 2. Roberto Clemente 3. Ted Williams 4. Gary Carter 5. Tony Gwynn. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: I’m uneasy ranking people as human beings. There’s so much we don’t know about players privately.

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Comment From Lars
Adrian Gonzalez has just a .268 BABIP. Can we count on that to rise and approach his career .320 BABIP?

Dan Szymborski: Lazy answer – likely.

Dan Szymborski: Full answer, let me open xbabip calculator!

Dan Szymborski: Career BABIP .320, career xBABIP .324.

Dan Szymborski: 2014 BABIP: .268, 2014 xBABIP .311

Comment From peiderp
Thinking about the Law/Cameron debate on Twitter – how much, if at all, less reliable are projections for players with little MLB track record?

Dan Szymborski: Projections are quite valuable, but it’s always a mistake to limit your information. There are some things that scouts can see, but there are also some things that projections can see.

Comment From Matt
Do the Dbacks have anyone that another team is actually going to trade for?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how willing they are to deal.

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced they’re going to do much – Towers and Gibson are in job-saving mode.

Comment From Opti-mets-tic
Despite their mysterious financial situation, can the Mets be buyers at the deadline considering they are only 5 games out of 1st place?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s smart for them to be buyers. Stay the course. It’s a sellers’ market – better for a team to take advantage of that then fight for a boobie prize that most teams can still see as a possibility

Comment From Vic
Do you have any faith in Jose Peraza to play 2b next year for Braves?

Dan Szymborski: He could get there, but it’s a little soon to get that specific given that he *just* got to AA.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Gotten any calls about the Padres GM job?

Dan Szymborski: I hvae to check my email. Given that the rumor is they’re interested in Towers, it must mean they called about 8 billion other people over the weekend to get to Towers.

Comment From Mat
As of today the most complete team in baseball is _____?

Dan Szymborski: A’s

Comment From Rick
Which of Hammel, Arrieta, Shark and Jackson will get traded out of Chicago this summer?

Dan Szymborski: I think Hammel and Shark get traded.

Comment From JAMES
Who would you take over the next 5 years fantasy wise, miguel sano & kris bryant, assuming both are healthy and playing 3B. And why.

Dan Szymborski: Bryant. Missed year breaks the tie for me, even if he comes back healthy.

Comment From Matt
Better pitcher ROS Kennedy or Kazmir?

Dan Szymborski: Kazmir, but there’s always that blowup chance.

Comment From Sam
Can you recommend a good book on sabermetrics?

Dan Szymborski: The Book

Comment From Matt
Do you play Dota 2?

Dan Szymborski: No. Tinkered with it a little, but found the tactical style of the game a little boring.

Dan Szymborski: Too much of the game is not attacking and simply trying to get the last hit on creeps.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like playing chess but only semi-slav positions.

Dan Szymborski: 1. d4 d5
2. c4 c6
3. Nf3 Nf6
4. Nc3 e6

Comment From hittfamily
How does playing time effect WAR. Is it fair to say a guy who posts a 1.5 WAR in 300 PA is a 3 win player if given a full time gig? I’m looking for 2nd base options for the Braves, and Sean Rodriguez’ name keeps popping out to me.

Dan Szymborski: Well, it always depends. Is that 1.5 WAR above his projections? Below?

Comment From Gene Autry
Josh Hamilton is flailing away at everything again, with his power AWOL since he returned. Is this the new norm? Josh or Springer ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, was there a time Hamilton didn’t flail away at everything? He does that even when he’s good.

Comment From Dan
Should we trust Verlander now? Supposedly he fixed his mechanics.

Dan Szymborski: Gonna need more than 1 start to have faith in him again

Comment From Vic
Do you think shifts would ever be considered illegal defense like offsides in soccer?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

Comment From Orioles were the Yankees
Do you think Kevin Gausman will be recalled soon and finally stick in the rotation?

Dan Szymborski: First answer easy yes (since the plan was to bring him up for this Friday’s start)

Dan Szymborski: Second *ought* to be yes. He’s one of the Orioles best five starting pitchers right now.

Dan Szymborski: There’s nobody in the O’s rotation right now that’s good enough to make them un-movable to the pen for the rest fo the season.

Comment From Vic
Mike Montgomery is having a nice year at 3A. Is he a sleeper for the Rays rotation?

Dan Szymborski: He is. Andriese has looked solid too

Comment From Steve
Someone dropped Stroman in my league, should I use my priority waiver claim on him? Does he have top-40 SP potential this season?

Dan Szymborski: I like stroman, but top 40 SP this year is a stretch from me

Comment From Rated Rookie
Dallas Keuchel’s starts last week: command faltering a bit plus hitters not swinging at the borderline stuff quite as much?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see Keuchel’s starts last week, but I think his reasonable upside is a 2/3 guy, not an ace type. He’s simply walking a finer line.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers can succeed with a fastball in the 80s, but it’s still harder.

Comment From Steve
When do you think we realistically see Bundy this season? Is he worth a roster stash?

Dan Szymborski: I think it depends if the O’s are willing to let him pitch in relief in the majors this year. If they are, he could bust through minors pretty quickly as the O’s don’t have a ton of depth in bullpen.

Comment From Gson
The Bumbling Tribe can’t seem to catch the ball.. can’t seem to throw the ball… when does Tito stop chewing the bubble gum and rip someone a new one?. Bring up a defensive wizard to play a predominantly defensive position?.

Dan Szymborski: One issue is that it appeared they were going to do this with Asdrubal for awhile, but he’s having ab etter year and I don’t think it happens while Indians still competing

Comment From Steve
How highly do you rate Joc Pederson? Think he’ll be an impact bat when he’s called up or suffer from his high SO%?

Dan Szymborski: Strikeout rate will cap his BA a bit (see Springer), but he’s just so talented otherwise that you deal with it (see Springer)

Dan Szymborski: He also hasn’t shown a repeat of his lousy vs. LHP stats from last year, also good news.

Dan Szymborski: I think he ends up in another organization to get that full-time job, given the Dodgers situation.

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers best outfield now is Kemp/Pederson/Puig, but I don’t think they know it.

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers are a solid team, but they got there with the “brute force” of cash, the front office isn’t particularly creative.

Comment From Matt Wieters Facts
UCL reconstruction will now be known as “Matt Wieters Surgery.”

Comment From David
Josh Harrison hits *meh* for an OF, but decently for a 2B. Does he get enough PT to be worth carrying ?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe he does. You’ve already gotten the best offense he’s likely to ever provide. Now the Pirates have to be more creative to get him into the lineup, but he’s not likely to match that play so far.

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re in an extremely deep league, he doesn’t have a lot of fantasy value.

Comment From Krusty
Touki Toussant… good baseball name?

Dan Szymborski: Indubitably!

Comment From Guest
Why isn’t Trout stealing more? Is there truth to the talk that Albert doesn’t like it? But Trout stole a lot more last year hitting in front of him. And should Pujols at his current level be allowed to make a call like that?

Dan Szymborski: It’s always hard to tell the “true” reason, but there is a very strong tendency for extremely talented overall players that steal bases early in their career to have their steals drop off fairly quickly

Dan Szymborski: What it comes down to is that Trout doesn’t need to steal many bases to be extremely valuable (or any really) and the increased risk of injury may worry the team. He was bound to steal fewer regardless of how Pujols feels.

Comment From Dan
are you by Zips? Can we get a Chase Whitley or Bolsinger projection on twitter at some point? (I also have some AA/AAA guys to ask about but would start with MLBers)

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Whitley at least is on my to do list

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Fangraphs gives the O’s a 31% chance of making playoffs (play-in game or better). Sound about right to you?

Dan Szymborski: That smells like the right neighborhood.

Comment From Guest
This electoral brawllege is insane. I think we all know Teddy Roosevelt would win hands down…and its not even that close

Dan Szymborski: Andrew Jackson kills people just to watch them die.

Comment From Guest
Best underrated follow on Twitter for baseball business info?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot of guys *focus* on that

Dan Szymborski: Maury Brown and Darren Heitner both talk about a lot of sports business and law stuff generally.

Comment From derp
remember the last time people thought Boston needed to promote a hot-hitting outfield prospect to help their team out? He didn’t turn out so great.

Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of gypsy curse reasoning.

Dan Szymborski: Betts isn’t more likely to be disappointing simply because a chronological recent different human being that was disappointing so far played for the same organization

Comment From Lonnie B. Goode
thoughts on the Byrnes firing? Right move?

Dan Szymborski: Smells deck-chair shuffling to me.

Comment From SunnySideUp
David Price gets traded to ___________.

Dan Szymborski: ____FART EATERS_____

Dan Szymborski: Remember guys, all fill-in-the-blank questions, for now on, will be answered the way a seven-year-old playing Mad Libs would. Fill-in-the-blanks are the Nickelback of the chat question world.

Dan Szymborski: I’d love if a band named Power I announced they were the mortal enemies of Nickelback

Comment From John
Does Cole Hamels and/or Cliff Lee get traded? I’d have to assume Hamels is ridiculously frustrated at this point.

Dan Szymborski: Hamels doesn’t. Lee might, but I don’t have any faith in the Phillies having a realistic view of their team.

Comment From SteveV
How much of a concern is Abreau’s lack of walks? What is the chance he’s Reynolds long term?

Dan Szymborski: Mark Reynolds actually used to walk quite a bit!

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry too much about Abreu. He’ll hit the way he has for the next 3 or 4 years and then become a terrible Phillies signing when he hits free agency.

Comment From Kyle
ZiPS has Jose Abreu hitting 37 HRs, how likely do you think it is that he breaks 45 and pushes closer to 50?

Dan Szymborski: He’s got a solid shot, for sure.

Comment From Marcus A
How do you decide to cut off the players you project? I notice Chris Taylor doesn’t have a projection despite being a top 10 organizational prospect and hitting well in Tacoma. I understand you have to draw the line somewhere, just wondering how you decide where.

Dan Szymborski: It was probably a mistake not to project him. Usually, my failsafe is people ask for players that I don’t project and I get to them before the season.

Comment From person hscer
do you play chess online? We don’t have to play Semi Slav, although I am a 1 d4 guy

Dan Szymborski: Here and there. Used to play more back when World Chess Network was a thing.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a 1. e4 guy and tend to play caro-kann or dutch defense.

Comment From Rated Rookie
How worrisome is Wacha’s stress reaction in his shoulder?

Dan Szymborski: Very. I’m terrified of anything that puts pticher and shoulder in the same sentence.

Dan Szymborski: I would not let my pitchers even eat pork shoulder, use head and shoulders shampoo, or give anybody a cold shoulder or a shoulder to cry on.

Comment From Dan
_____ is to ____ as ____ is to ______

Dan Szymborski: Poop is to diarrhea as butt is to ass.

Comment From Mr Football
Brewers are still projected to play sub .500 ball ROS. Tell me projections are lagging on this team.

Dan Szymborski: They still smell .500ish to me. The good news is that .500ish when you have a 5 1/2 game lead and a 7 1/2 game lead on wild card spot 1, you’re likely a playoff team

Comment From Guest
Most informative, under-the-radar baseball follows on Twitter?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, my favorite follows are entertaining baseball people, not necessarily the most informative ones.

Comment From Bradley
Indubitably! Did you learn that word from 3 Stooges like I did?

Dan Szymborski: It was the fanciest word that curly knows!

Dan Szymborski: plus, it’s the start of homer’s song at the end of the shary bobbins episode.

Dan Szymborski: Indubitably! Around the house, I never lift a finger. As a husband and father I’m subpar. I’d rather drink a beer than win father of the year! I’m happy with things the way they are.

Comment From Yogging
Can we talk about Sean Doolittle’s 50:1 K:BB? Halfway to 100.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s crazy.

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see him play for an NL team that convinces him to hit a little between games. Brooks Kieschnick was fun.

Dan Szymborski: Though I imagine A’s fans are happy with things they way they are.

Dan Szymborski: (See, tied it into previous answer, just like Mr. Show!)

Comment From Helpy Helperson
Dan, been trying to find out more about how OLIVER is created. Any idea where I can go?

Dan Szymborski: Ask Cartwright.

Comment From Matt
Dan Szymborski’s favorite food is __________

Dan Szymborski: boobs?

Comment From jim
is the injury to correa serious. these astros seem to have a bright future, will this factor in to the time it takes to become successful?

Dan Szymborski: It is serious, no doubt. But I’ms till cautiously optimistic – I feel better about broken bones than soft tissue and he’s very young.

Comment From person hscer
do you go e6-f5, or f5 right away? I have a definite favorite move vs the latter. I still don’t have a favorite reply w/black to e4, but if I feel comfortable vs the opp. I usually go Scandinavian

Dan Szymborski: I usually go to f5 right away. You’d be surprised how many internet people will Staunton gambit it and go for the e4. I’m comfortably with the much crappier reverse spanish that the main line after that gets white to.

Comment From Yogging
Least informative, under-the-radar follow in Twitter: @RealCarrotFacts

Comment From person hscer
Have you ever found an athlete’s Twitter feed not to be entirely worthless?

Dan Szymborski: McCarthy can be fun.

Dan Szymborski: But yeah, most athletes have boring twitter feeds.

Dan Szymborski: Because, let’s be honest, terrible jokes are what make twitter fun.

Dan Szymborski: All it takes is one control pitcher writing “Batters walk less often against me than Christopher Reeve!” before they get berated off Twitter and forced to do the whole auto-da-fe ritual.

Comment From dbet
Nickleback is the _____________ greatest band in the world.

Dan Szymborski: can is say shitballs on FanGraphs?

Comment From Gio Gonzalez
What’s my deal?

Dan Szymborski: 5 years, $42 million, IIRC

Comment From Garthok
Pujols or Rizzo ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Rizzo.

Comment From person hscer
How often do you see 1 d4 f5 2 Bg5 because that’s what I’ve started doing

Dan Szymborski: Once in a while. I’ll happily go 2…h6 3. Bh4 g5, blow open my kingside and 0-0-0 later.

Comment From Matt
What is to be made of Castro’s year to date? Seems like more of a serious breakout rather than a mere comeback.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’d call it a *breakout* yet, he’s kinda where I thought he would be after 2011-2012.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
I’m I the only one waiting for Donald Gibb yelling “Nerds!”

Dan Szymborski: You’re at a FanGraphs chat.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a place where I might randomly tell Bagman that he should be sterilized and exiled on an ice floe for nominating plr_hightower.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to log off for another week. Thanks for coming everybody! You can read my work at ESPN.com, chats here at FG an the aforementioned site at times, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Comment From person hscer
you probably know not to try and trap the bishop in that line ;p

Dan Szymborski: You ain’t gonna trap the bishop, but I *am* going to waste your time.

Dan Szymborski: Err I ain’t

Dan Szymborski: I was likely castling queenside anyway.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t want to play dutch stonewall anyway