Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/30/14

Dan Szymborski: And here we go. Sorry I’m late. People flooding my twitter with political talk delayed me.

Comment From TB
JD Martinez: What the hell? Flash in the pan or the next jose Bautista?

Comment From Brules Rules
J.D. Martinez, any of the breakout sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: Flash. No.

Comment From Colletti, Ned
Were you too quick to write off the Dodgers a few weeks ago?

Dan Szymborski: Gave them a 1-in-10 chance at the division. Strongly believe it was well-founded based on the facts at hand at the time.

Dan Szymborski: The Giants collapse was highly unusual in baseball.

Comment From Pale Hose
George Springer looks a lot like 2009 Mark Reynolds, which makes me skeptical. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I think Springer is a more naturally gifted hitter than Reynolds is.

Comment From Bryan
Are the Reds a legit playoff contender? The hitting is coming alive and the starting pitching remains strong.

Dan Szymborski: It’s tough, I dont’ think they have a ton of upside and have some serious depth issues.

Comment From Rothbard
Who are some of your favorite libertarian philosophers and thinkers?

Dan Szymborski: oh oh, don’t drag that in here.

Dan Szymborski: But since this is a neutral position, Faure (though I don’t agree, fascinating ideas), George, Dejacque

Dan Szymborski: One of the PCs on my network is named Rothbard.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, presidents!

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Comment From TacobyBellsbury
Thoughts On Mookie Betts debut?

Dan Szymborski: I think that people are possibly expecting a little too much right away. He’s going to have value, but I think people are a little spoiled by some of the players that have instantly starred lately.

Comment From tommy
how would you go about projecting holds?

Dan Szymborski: Well, some combination of past holds and ability.

Comment From Guest
Hi Dan, thanks for the time. Does Mookie get everyday at-bats even when (or should I say if) Victorino returns? Is his defense good enough to supplant S.Drew at SS barring his bat is better? (which shouldn’t be hard)

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll mix him in as much as possible. I would not be shocked if the Flyin’ Hawaiian is flying elsewhere.

Comment From TB
Better chance as full time closer going forward, Benoit or Balfour.

Dan Szymborski: Probably Benoit

Comment From Krusty
Mike Trout ROS Zips projection is 4.9 WAR. You taking the under, i.e. no one can average 5 WAR per half season, regression looms large?

Dan Szymborski: Regressions already in there! He’s ridiculous.

Comment From Bryce Harpers Uncle
Is Kershaw the favorite for NL Cy Young now?

Dan Szymborski: He should be – I think he makes it up.

Comment From Guest
Is Matt Cain done? Any chance of a strong second half like last year?

Dan Szymborski: I really hope not, but I’m getting a bit worried that we’ve seen the best of Cain.

Comment From Fredo
Wasn’t the Giants “collapse” more about regression to the mean? They never had 105 win talent when they were on a 105 win pace.

Dan Szymborski: Regression *toward* the mean, not regression way under the mean.

Dan Szymborski: You should have expected them to play at a lower level closer to their abilities, not completely shut down.

Comment From zurzles
what the hell do the Os do about Ubaldo? they’ve never had to deal with a failing FA pitcher, or any FA pitcher. just keep sending him out there for the next 4 horrible years? i’m sad.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll have 4 horrible years. I’m worried, but I don’t think that on a going-forward basis, he’s out of the 5 best on the team.

Dan Szymborski: Going forward (though I hate the term, it’s effective), I think Gonzalez is the 6th best option.

Comment From dbet
Think Kershaw will be considered one of the greats when his career is over?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: On a peak level, he already is.

Comment From Joe
Matt Cain has over $80M left on his contract. Not that he’s been awful, but do you think there’s any legitimate chance he bounces back? Is this what we should get used to seeing?

Dan Szymborski: Again, I’m a little worried, but I’m still cautiously pessimistic.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the contract ends too badly

Comment From Guest
philosophers is pretty strong word for those idiots

Comment From Brian
What tweaks/updates are in the works for 2015’s iteration of ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: More use of batted ball data in the minors to estimate BABIP.

Dan Szymborski: Likely, the changes I deem “ready” will be of a BABIP (especially hitter) projecting nature.

Dan Szymborski: This may sound counter-intuitive, but hitter BABIP is a more difficult projection issue than pitcher BABIP even though the latter is more volatile.

Dan Szymborski: Since there’s more actual meat in a batter BABIP than a pitcher BABIP, you have to make more of an effort to find the meat.

Comment From shawn
Are the Braves a legit playoff contender? Our lineup is coming alive, the bullpen is getting settled, and our pitching should actually have positive regression after its June swoon.

Dan Szymborski: Like if you know going in you have a big salad and there’s no meat you don’t bother looking for it. But if you have a cheesteak salad (they exist), you’re damn well going to have to check behind mystery stalks to find all the meat.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the answer for the Braves Q obviously

Dan Szymborski: Any team leading at the halfway point is a legit contender! Even fi they were behind, they certainly would be – both the Braves and Nats have substantial upside.

Dan Szymborski: I expect the Marlins to continue to fall back and the much expected raise between Atlanta and Washington to be more surprising.

Dan Szymborski: Errr exciting.

Comment From Vandy Commodores
What are your thoughts on what the A’s did with Sonny Gray this week? Should more temas look for way to push back there young starters, or is routine important?

Dan Szymborski: Routine is important, but unless I’m a mistaken, this was just a judgment issue that he as an individual would get a benefit from an extra dy of rest. Plans should be detailed, but never inflexible.

Dan Szymborski: I’d like teams to bring back more of a longman/spot starter role – it increases flexibility.

Comment From GSon
Tigers are beginning to put some distance in the AL Central.. The Royals are proving to be tough competition.. The Indians can’t put it together.. Assuming trajectories remain, would an Asdrubal Cabrera for Ziomek or Smyle trade be beneficial for both clubs?

Dan Szymborski: I think that something like this would be beneficial, but the Indians won’t get it done by targeting Smyly.

Dan Szymborski: He’s too important to them in a win-now mode. Remember, Scherzer’s increasingly likely to be gone and Verlander hasn’t been that dependable.

Comment From K$$
Who performs better over next 3 years offensively: Starln Castro or Xander Bogaerts?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think they’re close enough that I’m going to call that too close to call.

Comment From john
How about corporations being able to use their freedom of religion to get out of doing things for employees they don’t like?

Dan Szymborski: On a fundamental level? None of my business or yours. Contracts are full of things that neither party would want to do without mutual consent.

Comment From Stephen
Do these presidential fights occur in the oval office?

Dan Szymborski: If you read the tournament bracket, they fight in a ring that’s shaped like Uncle Sam uppercutting King George.

Dan Szymborski: Whiel I didn’t specify, it would be George III, as the most recent George that all the presidents would have knowledge (contemporary or historical of)

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t do George V because earlier presidents wouldn’t know the shape of the ringt.

Comment From Danny Danielson
What kind of moves do the Blue Jays need to make to improve? What about the A’s?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re the best fit for Samardzija or Lee.

Comment From Steve
Do you think Bundy enters the rotation after the ASB>

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to be careful with him. The need isn’t that pressing. I wouldn’t have an issue of using him in the pen if he’s regularly on.

Comment From Baltic Fox
Colby Rasmus: free agent that might be of interest to the Orioles? Good glove, lots of power, poor plate discipline. Seems like a perfect fit for the team, lol, with Markakis probably gone next year.

Dan Szymborski: Eh, I don’t really see the pull for the Orioles. If his ability to play a meh-ish CF isn’t being used — and it wouldn’t be as long as Adam Jones keeps getting confusing Gold Glove — I don’t see the lure.

Comment From Steve
Think Despainge is worth holding or strictly a streamer?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m ahead in my league, I don’t value him. But if I’m behind, I grasp him because even if his median is kind of bleh, there’s a lot of uncertainty and there’s at least a chance of catching lightning in a bottle.

Comment From Michael
Worried about Latos’ down-tick in velocity (2.1 MPH)? How long does it take for velocity to normalize?

Dan Szymborski: While it tends to normalize very quickly, that’s for general situations. While I haven’t researched the pitch/fx coming off injury (might not be a bad idea), I do get the impression that there’s a bit of caution for a returning player.

Comment From David
So do we know anything more about Wright’s shoulder yet? Could this have been a season long thing and responsible for his power outage?

Dan Szymborski: Other than the fact that he’s having an MRI, there’s no new news, at least that I’ve seen or heard from insiders.

Comment From My Name
First there was Fausto Carmona, then Leo Nunez. Who’s next in line for a name change?

Dan Szymborski: I hope for once that a boring name becomes a COOL name.

Dan Szymborski: Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez both had name downgrades.

Comment From Baltic Fox
DeJacque: not the sort of guy you associate with the American brand of libertarianism. He was an anarchist, wasn’t he?

Dan Szymborski: He asked my favorite philosophers, not specifically the ones I agree with the most

Dan Szymborski: I’ve very Georgist in outlook – I don’t believe land can be physically owned.

Comment From Markus Lynn
Can we talk about Mookie some more please? I like his mustache.

Comment From Marcus A.
This is something I could probably look up relatively easily but don’t know exactly how to go about it… If Trout keeps this season going roughly as is, is this the best 3 year run of all time? Has to be close.

Dan Szymborski: It would be up there, I don’t have the 3-year runs memorized.

Comment From Wat
Are the Mariners really a playoff team with the current lineup?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve got some definite weaknesses, but there aren’t a lot of strong teams in baseball right now. They certainly have a good shot, even if I consider their “true ability” (as abstract a concept as that is) to be somewhere in the .500 range.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, going back to Wright (I didn’t finish answer), a shoulder absolutely could sap his power.

Dan Szymborski: The bad side of course is that bad shoulder have sapped other careers. See Brad Wilkerson and Morgan Ensberg.

Comment From Pat
Do you expect Votto or Bruce to bounce back the second half of the season? Or do their creaky knees hindre them the rest of the year?

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic.

Comment From John
Koufax had to retire early. Knowing what you know at this point in time (midway through 2014), would you take Kershaw or Koufax if you had a team and the were both active plyaers about to begin their rookie seasons (you know Koufax’s exact stats over the next 12 years in this situation)? Koufax played 12 or so seasons, and you know what he did, but Kershaw could hurt his shoulder tomorrow and never pitch again or go on to pitch another 12 years on top of what he has done. Who you picking?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, if I had to choose as rookies but knew exactly waht Koufax’s future was, I’d take Koufax.

Dan Szymborski: And ZiPS would too – ZiPS didn’t project Kershaw to be this good after all.

Comment From Sirras One
RE: Trout is absurd – regardless of whether you believe 1 WAR in the market place is worth $6 million or $8 million, Trout is getting paid roughly $24 million per year and yet it STILL seems like it’s team-friendly

Dan Szymborski: He’s crazy sauce.

Comment From Pat
Should Alfredo Simon’s success from bullpen to rotation give hope Chapman might find his way to the rotation next year?

Dan Szymborski: I think that ship has sailed, though I think the Reds should have explored it more seriously.

Comment From thieves
are we going to seen an 80-steal season this year? also, in terms of projections, what do you use to try and guess SB success rates beyond just speed rating?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses a modified speed score and historical SB attempts – haven’t found much else that really means much on a predictive level

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anyone gets to 80 this year. Either Hamilton or Gordon could get to 70

Comment From Sadwick
I feel like Hayes should beat Harding easily, but Harding would probably have friends show up to help him out as “fighting consultants.”

Dan Szymborski: No, we have security for that sort of things.

Comment From bigdaddysmooth
Any thoughts on the volatile collegiate career of Tyler Beede? Has there ever been a pitcher who was exceptionally dominant one year, than have no control the next- and seen major league success? Hes piqued my interest with this tomofoolery

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a good enough memory of college performances to really give a reasonable answer here, but I hate to simply not post a long question.

Comment From Nate
Say a player had peak-Bonds talent but had such a fear of flying that he couldn’t travel by plane with the team. Think any team would still take a chance on him and chauffeur him around and maybe avoid cross country trips?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. At the most, he’ll miss the first game in series with long travel.

Dan Szymborski: Consider it an injury.

Comment From stonepie
how come certain players see a huge improvement in their ROS projection. for example, beltran was just updated today and profiles as a top 15ish outfielder the rest of the way

Dan Szymborski: He does? That’s weird.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at 0.4 the rest of the way, there’s no way that’s a top 15 in ZiPS

Comment From J
In general, are fastballs better against older players and breaking balls better against younger players?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s a lot of evidence for a hard and fast rule such as this

Comment From Thomas
Who performs better over next 3 years offensively: Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion?

Dan Szymborski: Abreu. Age breaks a close call.

Comment From jocephus
create a stat called CHIPs

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is already a callback to CHiPs

Dan Szymborski: I just forgot to make the s small the first time.

Dan Szymborski: and since it got quick publicity (Jay Jaffe was the first person to mention ZiPS, so he gets credit for that)

Comment From Krusty
I was a gamer back during the early days of Apple Macintosh, but quit long ago. Assuming I don’t like 3rd party character shoot em ups, what’s a fun entry level game to get back into it?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what types of games you like! There are a *lot* of non 3rd party character shoot em ups!

Comment From Naveen
So far, the Mariners have been the best team in baseball at run prevention with 3.43 runs allowed per game. Is that going to continue?

Dan Szymborski: It should stay pretty high – that’s mostly driven by bullpen, who mostly have excellent peripherals, Elias has already regressed and Chris Young’s inevitable decline will like be balanced by Iwakuma going the other way.

Comment From THE average sports fan
What is your take on the Frieri-Grilli swap? Challenge trade deluxe?

Dan Szymborski: Better for Pirates.

Comment From Zach
Speaking of inter-AL Central Short Stop trades, does Alexei Rameriz for Jose Iglesias make sense?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse ideas.

Comment From Sadwick
I just finished my burrito and face a quandary: what should I do with a bag full of cheap, bland corn chips? I could simply leave them to the vultures that circle the break room, but I’m leaning toward dissolving them in a cup of truly horrid coffee and using the resulting cement-like mixture to fix a split in my desk.

Dan Szymborski: Save them, put them in the food processor at home.

Dan Szymborski: Use ’em like you would bread crumbs.

Dan Szymborski: Or if you’re at work and don’t want to bring them home, pelt them at people when they’re not looking.

Comment From Phil
Your periodic question about Eric Hosmer: WTF? He looks utterly lost. Will it get measurably better?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea at this point. I was unsure of what to think of Hosmer LAST year. No more sure this year, though I think he’ll be better.

Comment From Bradley
Hey Dan: I joined twitter last week because you suggested it in one of your chats. It’s awesome for sports talk. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Today, not so much.

Dan Szymborski: I *rarely* talk politics on Twitter (or anywhere besides the usual dreadful politics thread at BTF, where I’m mostly interested in mocking a couple people that are real idiots)

Dan Szymborski: But the propensity of people I don’t follow for political commentary making political commentary has dragged me in

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
?I’m, waiting for my Dan. Twenty-six dollars, in my hand?

Comment From Guest
how are zips updated nightly? simply pro-rated to # of games left or something more complex?

Dan Szymborski: Nightly. And not pro-rated, you can see the difference between pre-season projections and ROS on a rate basis!

Dan Szymborski: Now yes, the model is simpler in-season (it would take more than 24 hours to calculate all the players by full ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: but it’s not *that* simple.

Comment From Sadwick
Make sure you have well insulated gloves when you catch that lightning in a bottle.

Dan Szymborski: rubber boddle?

Dan Szymborski: Bottle

Comment From Dylan
Is Scherzer looking bad for turning down the extent ion offer? He has regressed to the underperforming Scherzer we all knew and loved prior to 2013. And it is increasing likely that him and Lester will be in heated competition for who get the biggest pay check?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s looking *that* bad. There’s a lot of money out there and not a lot of great pitchers out there.

Comment From Visitor
What’s the most annoying question you get asked regularly?

Dan Szymborski: Ones with blanks in them. That’s why my policy is to answer them as if I were a 7-year-old doing mad libs.

Comment From Visitor
I missed the beginning of the chat. Do I want to know what the deal is with the weird Presidents brawl poll?

Dan Szymborski: Read the question!

Dan Szymborski: Who win a no-hold-barred, bare-fisted brawl? Assume combination of peak and life abilities, at your discretion.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the bracket, though I haven’t marked in John Adams upset last week over his son in the uploaded version

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Comment From Bryan
Regarding Mike Trout, and the best 3 year peaks ever. This article ran a couple weeks ago http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From John
you’d pick Koufax, evern though you know his exact career line, and you know the first 6 years of kershaws? knowing kershaw could continue and play for way more than 12 season possibly?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought I didn’t know Kershaw but I did know Koufax

Comment From Brandon
What has been the single biggest surprise to you this year?

Dan Szymborski: well, the way the giants have folded the last two weeks.

Dan Szymborski: the 2014 giants folded in june folded as quickly as the 2014 giants folded in june. That’s right, there’s no other simile candidate.

Comment From Shooty BABIP
Were you saying Cliff Lee to Oakland? He’s 35, hasn’t pitched in a month and a half, and owed $25M next season. No way Beane takes on that much risk.

Dan Szymborski: Toronto. Did I say Oakland? If so, I didn’t intend to write Oakland as that would be insane.

Dan Szymborski: Why would Oakland want to get an already good pticher? They turn straw into gold. Straw is cheaper than gold.

Dan Szymborski: Except Jim Johnson, which was a real WTF think for Oakland.

Comment From Matt
Would Price to the Mariners still make sense? The had the borderlines of a deal in place in the off season and Jack-Z needs them to make the playoffs if he wants to keep his job. A one-two punch of Felix and Price would be incredible.

Dan Szymborski: Still does. The Mariners should make it happen. They didn’t pay top dollar for the next 5 years of Cano’s career to not capitalize on it.

Dan Szymborski: (He’s signed longer, but he’s essentially signed for his quality the next 5 years, not what he’ll do at the end of his deal)

Comment From Doyle Alexander
How bad did the Angels get fleeced in the Grilli trade?

Dan Szymborski: I think it was a bad deal. It was a challenge trade with one team getting significantly higher upside.

Comment From gnomez
You might not be the best person to ask this question of, but I’ll give it a try: why has FG removed tERA from the player pages? I understand that it has less predictive value than SIERA, but it’s always been my impression that it is the best representation of actual performance.

Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely not the best person to ask the question! I’m probably the worst one since it’s ESPN that pays me and while I’m a good friend of FG (I’ve been acquainted with Cameron since we were both teenagers in the mid-90s sabermetric community on usenet), I don’t make policies.

Dan Szymborski: I’d know more about what’s going on internally at Bristol, but then, I’m not going to tell you!

Comment From Dreamin
Clutch Hitting in Perspective

Comment From John
with the fear of flying question, why wouldn’t they just knock him out for the flights>? lol dope him up.

Dan Szymborski: That would seem practical. It worked for Mr. T.

Comment From Jay
Would it be smart for the Cardinals to pursue Price/Zobrist if it meant giving up Taveras+, as Dave suggested? That seems like a very un-Cardinal move.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? I think that’s probably not far from a fair deal.

Comment From John
will grilli close in LA?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, I think he starts in a setup role.

Comment From Raz
How do you come up with fantasy ranks using zips? (Like the ones in your undervalued and overvalued players article from before the season.)

Dan Szymborski: I took mock drafts and made a model of likelihood for each player being picked sequentially (by position)

Dan Szymborski: then I made 100,000 12-team leagues and simulated a reasonable roster distribution.

Dan Szymborski: Then I’d measure the effect on the projected rotisserie standings with 1.2 million times (the player in question replacing the starting player at htat position)

Dan Szymborski: Counting on the large sample size to sorta even out any resulting oddities.

Dan Szymborski: In other words, similar to David Tate’s old marginal measures of runs created, with a self-calculating replacement level

Dan Szymborski: And then ranked the players by average points added to the 1.2 million teams in the 100K leagues.

Comment From atoms
Eugenio Suarez is a legitimately good-hitting SS, true or false?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not this good. But he was really solid in the minors this year. I thought he was their best option after Iglesias going into the season (I’m sure I’m on teh record somewhere) and his >.850 OPS in the minors this year ain’t making me more pessimistic!

Comment From Dr. Met
Will the success of Abreu and other Cubans skew the way the stat translations are run or do we need a few more years of sample

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it skews them that much – they’re really not *that* far away.

Comment From Caveman Jones
What does ZiPS suggest for a Jon Lester contract? Hhas it changed much since the start of the season?

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, was around 6/140 preseason. There’s a lot of money out there.

Comment From Phanatic
As a Phillies fan, I pretty much just wish they could trade EVERYBODY! Rollins, Utley, Howard, Lee, every single one! I love those guys, but boy does Ruben disgust me! Will he be gone soon?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies need to hope for losses. As I’ve talked about regularly, the best thing for the team is to have no hope.

Comment From Guest
___ me in the goat _____

Dan Szymborski: Fart me in the goat poop.

Comment From gnomez
If not you, who should I direct my tERA question to?

Dan Szymborski: D-Cam or Apples.

Comment From John
you know kersdhaws whole career, and then kershaws career to date, but his future can’t be seen. He could get injured tomorrow and never pitch again, or go on to win 8 more cy youngs. You don’t know the future, only the past, and Koufax is done. Who you pick?!?

Dan Szymborski: In that case, Kershaw. Koufax’s peak more valuable, but I don’t have to wade through the Jonathan Sanchez years before I get to it.

Comment From Rothbard
The libertarian philosophy on non-aggression is anarchism if taken to its logical conclusion. As it is never permissible to initiate force against others the state can’t exist.

Dan Szymborski: But that’s an eventual *goal* nto something you can institute. I want us to move society *towards* the ideal, not instantly decree it.

Comment From CH Smoot
I don’t get it – you say questions with blanks annoy you, yet you post a “The Electoral Brawllege” sheet that has a bunch of blanks on it

Dan Szymborski: Brackets aren’t blanks!

Dan Szymborski: And I can use blanks. I have more blank authority than you guys have!

Comment From Cesaro
No-holds-barred but you don’t allow outside interference? What kind of silly no DQ fight is this!

Dan Szymborski: The cage is designed so nobody can get in.

Comment From John
Dave _______________

Dan Szymborski: Fartnuggets?

Comment From Rothbard
Definitely an eventual goal. But I wouldn’t advocate for removing 95% of the cancer in my body. I would advocate for 100% to be removed even if it wasn’t entirely possible at the time.

Dan Szymborski: I’d advocate for 100%, but I’ll take 95% over 0%. We all compromise our ideals on a daily basis.

Dan Szymborski: My presidential votes: Clinton, Browne, Nader, nobody, Romney. Each choice involved someone who disagreed with a lot of my ideals.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m never running for political office.

Dan Szymborski: ON that note, time to move on for another week. Thanks for joining me and hope to see you guys next week!

Comment From Gila Monster
Comprising ideals is dumb when one side is wrong.

Dan Szymborski: The mugger may not have the right to my wallet, but I’d rather lose my wallet and compromise my ideals than be a morally superior corpse.

Comment From John
Obama, Osama or George W Bush in 2016?

Dan Szymborski: Heh.