Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/18
2:00 |
: Welcome to this very special episode of the Dan Szymborski chat!
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2:00 |
: I want to talk about teen smoking. If a bigger, stronger boy is making you smoke, you should say “No! Smokers are jokers!” And then push him down the steps.
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2:01 |
: I do have an announcement to make. At the END of the chat. And I promise you, unlike a certain children’s book THAT PROMISED A FRIGGING MONSTER, it won’t just be fricking Grover.
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2:01 |
: I don’t promise that it won’t be disappointing. Incoherently promise, incoherently deliver, I always say.
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2:01 |
: A question I never imagined even considering — Does Nick Markakis deserve a qualifying offer? Would he accept it?
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2:02 |
: It’s a lot to pay for one year of Markakis. I remain unconvinced that this is a good idea, but he *has* had a valuable season, the bes tof his career, at least offensively.
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2:02 |
: We may have more clarity in October.
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2:03 |
: If he’s *still* hitting like he has and ends up with a five-WAR season, I’m not sure you *can’t* not give him a QO. A year deal really is nothing and the Braves have room.
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2:03 |
: Dan, I can’t chat today because meetings. If this is going to be the last Dan chat, I’m going to be sad. It’s always one of the best parts of the week.
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2:03 |
: Ignoring Money (tough to do, I know).. Harper or Machado for the next 8 years. Who would you take? And has the first 1/2 of 2018 had any tangible impact on this choice?
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2:04 |
: Machado. ZiPS actually projected Machado as slightly more valuable long-term than Harper coming *into* the season and I’m pretty sure if that’s what one believed then, this year certainly isjn’t changing it
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2:04 |
: and next time you’re in North Baltco, hit me up. I’ll buy you a beer at the Corner Stable.
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2:04 |
: Is there a place to look up park factor splits? Trying to see how LHP and RHP perform at specific locations instead of general park factor
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2:04 |
: Seamheads usually updates theirs. I do my owns.
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2:05 |
: And there’s always the secretive FanGraphs Guts pages.
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2:05 |
: The Indians broadcasters were railing on Mejia yesterday pretty hard about not wanting to play outfield, citing some things Francona said. Seems an odd strategy three weeks from the trade deadline. Does Mejia really have character issues or does he have having to move to accommodate Perez and Gomes issues?
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2:05 |
: I’m not sure what’s going on with Cleveland and St. Louis. I kinda feel like these are things that probably shouldn’t air publicly
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2:06 |
: I know the A’s are in the conversation for a WC slot, but they have to be curious about what they could get for Blake Treinen, right? What kind of package do you think they could scrounge up for him?
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2:06 |
: I’d listen at least, but I think my request would be steep. The team *is* competitive right now and Treinen doesn’t hit FA until after 2020.
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2:06 |
: What’s your take on the pie structure vs. ingredient matrix? Does a pie need to be fully encased in crust like apple pie or does an open topped pie like pumpkin pie count? Also are you ingredient neutral? Is chicken pot pie a type of pie? Is a deep dish pizza a type of pie?
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2:06 |
: As with sandwiches, I’m a structure purist, ingredient rebel.
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2:07 |
: I do prefer either encasement or no top crust over a lattice.
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2:07 |
: The lattice cuts weird and you just kinda feel like you’re being robbed of crust
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2:07 |
: Have you any sense of how similar (or not) the Angelos sons plan to run the Orioles compared to dad? The acknowledgement of needing to catch up internationally sounds like MAYBE the sons could be a little more forward thinking. Am I delusional? I’m delusional. I can feel it.
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2:07 |
: At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it. The O’s ain’t earned any faith.
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2:08 |
: The Orioles, who have resisted rebuilding for so long, will trade Machado. What does a team in denial about its future target in a trade? Mediocre talent close to the bigs? I can’t see them wanting lottery tickets in the lower levels, but the franchise defies reason.
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2:08 |
: Logic would dictates they would go the normal route and get the best prospects they can.
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2:08 |
: But as I’ve said on Twitter, one of my nightmares *is* they go for an established player as a part of the package.
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2:09 |
: Something like Nick Ahmed and a prospect wouldn’t shock me, with some dumb argument about how “Ahmed keeps us competitive the next two years.”
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2:09 |
: Now, I should be shocked because that would be MINDBOGGLINGLY AWFUL, but the O’s don’t shock me.
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2:09 |
: WHY IS JOSH TOMLIN STILL ON THE INDIANS????
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2:09 |
: Inertia
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2:09 |
: Per the front page description: “The owner-operator of the ZiPS projection system takes questions and answers a certain percentage of them.” So, do you have a SLA on % of questions that must be answered? If I flood the question box, does that destroy your efficiency? I’m looking for ways to sabotage your chats.
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2:09 |
: I try to get to a quarter of the questions.
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2:10 |
: If I actually catch up to the present time wtiht aht percentage, I’ll backtrack and try to start grabbing ones I missed.
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2:10 |
: I have a bias in favor of answers I can question quickly and answers that are relevant to more than just the asker.
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2:10 |
: I can’t answer a question in which I need to do 10 minutes of works
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2:11 |
: and it’s hard to ask too many “WHO DO I DROP FOR THIS PITCHER HERE ARE MY OTHER ELEVEN PITCHERS” because it’s super specific.
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2:11 |
: Should the Royals try to trade Danny Duffy and Salvador Perez?
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2:11 |
: Eventually. I’m not sure this is the best time with the vortex of suck overcoming th em.
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2:11 |
: Try to sell or hold Moncada in a shallow OBP keeper if competing?
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2:12 |
: Shallow and OBP make this a harder hold.
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2:12 |
: What is your new career announcement, are you leaving us?
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2:12 |
: I WILL DIE AT SOMEPOINT BETWEEN THIS MOMENT AND LIKE, 2068.
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2:12 |
: on a scale of p to potato, what’s your favorite starch?
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2:12 |
: I tend to like pasta over other starches.
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2:12 |
: Wait, are we counting beer?
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2:12 |
: If so, that’s my favorite starch.
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2:12 |
: Hi Dan, on a scale of 0-10 how in trouble are the Nats?
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2:13 |
: If 10 is more trouble, about a 6
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2:13 |
: so special episode due to a personal career announcement, so are you:
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2:13 |
: NOT SCOTUS
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2:13 |
: Have we reached the end of the road with Joe Mauer?
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2:13 |
: Nearly reaching it. Not sure what’s going on with Minnesota, there are a LOT of guys who should just be playing a lot better than they are.
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2:13 |
: On offense
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2:13 |
: Is there no sort of microaggression in your chat announcement assuming my time zone?
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2:14 |
: I commit macroaggressions always.
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2:14 |
: Biggest All Star snub?
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2:15 |
: Snell. Given that I’d seriously consider putting him on my Cy Young ballot if the season ended today, he ought to be in the ASB
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2:16 |
: Theoretically, I don’t know if I’ll vote in the Cy Young balloting this year and since I’m in the Cincinnati BBWAA chapter, I’m far, far more likely to vote for the NL Cy Young than the AL anyway.
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2:17 |
: Socrates Brito really fell off the map, but he’s getting the ball in the air more. He has an inflated BABIP and still chases too much, but is he deserving of a real shot now?
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2:18 |
: It would have been interesting, but I don’t htink thtey’re going to release Jon Jay to find out. It’d be easier if he hit right-handed. I’m a believe in always letting a player change your opinion of them.
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2:18 |
: What happens with arbitration with a guy like Danny Salazar? Got 5m for this year and is going to miss the whole year due to injury. If the Indians think he has the chance to make a comeback next year, would they ever be able to settle a lower salary in arbitration, or is about 5m again probably a good assumption?
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2:18 |
: Still subject to the maximum cuts.
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2:19 |
: You mentioned a big career announcement today. Are you defecting to North Korea?
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2:19 |
: JUCHE IDEA
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2:19 |
: Should Max Muncy’s positional flexibility (1B,3B,2B) be considered more in the Final Vote, despite it not being quantified?
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2:19 |
: I think it’s worth breaking a tie
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2:19 |
: Has Nick Markakis’ All-Star season caused you to question your existence and leave the baseball industry?
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2:19 |
: No. Baseball going to baseball. My opinions change as the underlying facts change.
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2:20 |
: Do you think you could pull off a convincing dropkick on Aaron Judge?
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2:20 |
: No, he’s too tall and too…errr…gravity bound to get THAT high on him.
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2:21 |
: Though I could pull it off better than an enzuigiri. Now, I could be a dick and do like one of those heel dropkicks to the knees.
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2:21 |
: Because let’s be honest, if I were a wrestler, I’d be a bad guy, a manager that people love to see get beat up.
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2:21 |
joining the supreme court new head of the EPA starting your WWE career dedicating more time to being president of the Nick Markakis fan club going back to work at H&H bagels now that they have met your demands (strikes over!) |
2:21 |
: Why should the Padres do with Brad Hand?
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2:21 |
: Trade him.
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2:21 |
: Is Hosmer a good player?
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2:21 |
: He’s an averageish player with moments.
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2:22 |
: Does ZIPS assign different IP for a given pitcher based on whether they are expected to be an SP or RP or is it just based on previous season’s IP’s? If the former, how does ZIPS adjust WHIP/ERA/K9 between being an SP or RP (or is it just prorated)?
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2:22 |
: ZiPS goes by previous play unless I ORDER it not too.
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2:22 |
: I have historical data in majors and minors for players that switch back an dforth
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2:22 |
We have to know. |
2:22 |
: I like cotton generally.
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2:23 |
: Because it doesn’t shrink and I can just throw it in the washing machine.
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2:23 |
: As Mitch Hedberg would say “This shirt is dry clean only…so it’s dirty”
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2:23 |
: Is Alex Bregman elite?
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2:23 |
: Yes
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2:23 |
: Should the Padres trade Ross, Hand, Stammen, etc?
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2:23 |
: Yes
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2:23 |
: Come playoff time should the Indians consider moving Carrasco into the bullpen? He’s really been the 4th best starter for them this year, and I expect his stuff plays up in the bullpen the best of any of their starters
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2:24 |
: Eh, I still think he’s likely to be one of the top 3 on the team
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2:24 |
: But I can see it happening
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2:24 |
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2:24 |
: Are the Padres moving in the right direction?
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2:25 |
: Broadly yes. There are some things that I really don’t like — excessive commit to a very average player, renting Freddy Galvis for no good reason — but they haven’t really waylaid the rebuild, so much as slagged on unhelpful slatherings
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2:25 |
: Hi Dan, congrats on whatever is making this episode very special. Unless it’s bad, in which case, condolences. Congratudolences, just to be safe.
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2:25 |
: It’s not bad. At least for me, some of you might think it’s bad.
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2:26 |
: But I wouldn’t tease something like a cancer diagnosis, that would be real sociopath stuff
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2:26 |
: Does anything matter why try?
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2:26 |
: 4 the lulz
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2:27 |
: and the dank memes
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2:27 |
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2:27 |
: But what about tokers?
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2:27 |
: I used jokers…uhh..Rokers?
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2:27 |
: Why don’t more GMs rip other GMs in the media for not getting deals done? It seems effective.
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2:27 |
: GMs compete, but there’s also a sense of collaboration in that they have to come to agreements on stuff
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2:28 |
: What should the A’s do at the deadline Dan?
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2:28 |
: I think we need to see where they are in 3 weeks. A’s playoff hopes, given the shape of the league (lots of really bad teams, only a few legitimate WC contenders) could soar or implode before then
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2:28 |
: Could you ever have imagined Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp as starting OFers in an All Star game in 2018?
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2:29 |
: Given the horrors in my dream log, it’s not that crazy a vision. Weird stuff happens in baseball.
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2:29 |
: My prediciton for Dan’s announcement: Be sure to drink your Ovaltine
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2:29 |
: I preferred Nesquik anyway as a kid
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2:29 |
: the monster at the end of this book is delightful and my sweet baby boy loves grover. my question is: how dare you?
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2:29 |
: THEY PROMISED A MONSTER
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2:29 |
: They promise something so horrifying that it will CHILL grover’s soul and put him back in his place.
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2:30 |
: Now you can’t even THREATEN grover. he walks around like he’s a robber baron now. He’s like Jay Gould now
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2:30 |
: How big a difference does ZIPS attribute to starting vs. relieving on average? Half a run of ERA? More?
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2:30 |
: not that clear cut, it’s more peripheral based (and season-to-season ZiPS uses velocity in this too)
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2:31 |
: Who is the best player on the Padres?
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2:31 |
: I’m tempted to say Tatis
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2:31 |
: Why do GMs make trades?
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2:31 |
: For the same reason you trade money to your grocer for bread.
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2:32 |
: The grocer does not need ALL THAT BREAD. It’ll go bad if they don’t trade it.
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2:32 |
: And YOU can’t make a sandwich out of dollars. It’s way too inky and hard to digest, no matter how much jelly you put on it
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2:32 |
: Let’s say a team has a great, forward thinking FO, but a bumbling idiot of a GM. They also have a great cost-controlled starter, but no immediate future for the MLB team. Could Cashman trade himself to said team for said pitcher?
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2:32 |
: You don’t like Cashman?
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2:32 |
: What are the Padres doing right?
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2:32 |
: Player development
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2:32 |
: How are things such as the FIP constant calculated? total-league stats, or qualified players? Also, by lature of league averages being fluid, would each season’s constant be variable until the end of the season (so, a pitcher’s FIP could change between starts).
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2:33 |
: I THINK FG is calculating it live, but I really don’t know
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2:33 |
: It’s the first day of free agency. You’re a GM with financial flexibility and a team ready to contend. What’s your best offer to Bryce Harper?
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2:33 |
: Votto’s deal
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2:33 |
: There’s too much uncertainty to give him $300 million, I feel
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2:33 |
: Can you just wrap up the chat now so that we can get to your big announcement?
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2:33 |
: It’s an art
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2:34 |
: My Dan’s announcement prediction: Joining the Trump administration as the new sandwich czar. Will implement a strict fascistic interpretation of “sandwich” and ban the hot dog from America.
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2:34 |
: STOP MAKING FAKE SANDWICHES. I’M LOOKING YOU WRAP PEOPLE
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2:34 |
: So, you are Batman, right?
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2:34 |
: I wouldn’t fit into that molded uniform
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2:35 |
: I’m way into the 200s weight-wise, I don’t know what batarang cables are rated at
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2:35 |
: someone tell me why Jose Reyes is still a major leaguer!
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2:35 |
: Inertia?
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2:35 |
: I know I answer that a lot
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2:35 |
: Is there a historical precedent for Moncada’s profile that reflects positively on him?
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2:35 |
: He could literally be 2B Juan Gonzalez the OF
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2:35 |
: I don’t have the skills, but I’d like to make a t-shirt with that “Footsteps on the Beach” thing with Jesus, but with Jesus Aguilar.
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2:35 |
: Is the announcement that ZiPS finally became fully sentient and is forcing you to do its bidding in its attempt to establish world domination and to install the designated hitter in the National League?
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2:36 |
: No, I’d have to be way smarter to program something like that
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2:36 |
: Scale 1-10 how much do you like the ASG not “mattering” anymore?
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2:36 |
: 7
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2:36 |
: Would you be in favor of a two division per league format?
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2:36 |
: Yeah, but it wouldn’t happen
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2:36 |
: Will you help me set the line up for my niece’s tee ball team, I can provide the data. Her friend Lily has a high OBP because she throws a tantrum if she’s tagged out, I think this is an overlooked strategy
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2:36 |
: I think for little kids, you put them in the order at which they’re least likely to cry
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2:36 |
: My Dan’s announcement prediction: Moving to antarctica for the next 12 months due to losing a Markakis-related bet made with a college friend 10 years ago.
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2:37 |
: Would you rather have Wil Myers or Kyle Seager for the rest of their contracts?
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2:37 |
: Seager still I think, but it’s much closer than I’d think a year ago
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2:37 |
: Is there a physical upper limit to the number of Tommy John surgeries one can have? Or can Nate Eovaldi just keep going?
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2:38 |
: Have you seen The Frankenstein Chronicles?
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2:38 |
: As long as Eovaldi has victims, he can keep trying
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2:39 |
: Taking out the Washington factor, does degrom deserve to be the Allstar game starter based on merit?
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2:39 |
: I don’t think ti’s clear cut
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2:39 |
: I think you can make a good case for all of deGrom, Nola, Scherzer
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2:39 |
: Dan, I can’t stop Zillow-ing the possible cities we’ll end up in for the remainder of this season. It’s a brutal cycle. We probably won’t even be there more than 3 months and I still can’t turn it off. Please at LEAST help me narrow the search. I’ve got like 12 tabs open. Don’t think, just say it. WHERE SHOULD I BE LOOKING??
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2:39 |
: You’re not buying a house for 3 months
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2:39 |
: Snell has 2.3 fwar so far, Simmons has 3.5 and Benintendi has 3.4 fwar. I think Snell should be an All Star, however it seems like there are a lot of players having great years who dint make it. And the you have someone like Moreland who does.
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2:40 |
: Yeah, but I like a mix of bWAR and fWAR, in which Snell goes up
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2:40 |
: The next foreign secretary of the United Kingdom!
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2:40 |
: It IS a country with more meat pie availability
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2:40 |
: Worst official All-Star of your lifetime?
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2:40 |
: Redman?
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2:40 |
: Should the Tigers trade Castellanos or try to extend him?
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2:41 |
: I’d try to extend first if I can get a reasonable deal, but I’d explore trading him if I couldn’t
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2:41 |
: Would you be hesitant to introduce your significant other to Pat the Bat Burrell
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2:41 |
: No, any woman who puts up with me has a high tolerance for weirdness and stupidity
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2:42 |
: Would the Padres have been better off taking the money guaranteed to Hosmer and using it to install beach sand in all seating sections?
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2:42 |
: Yes
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2:42 |
: If you were a manager you would be Paul Bearer and Bryce Harper would be your Undertaker
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2:42 |
: THERE’S WAR IN THIS URN
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2:42 |
: Enyel De Los Santos will be a good starter in the league, yes? Numbers look legit in AAA this year…
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2:42 |
: Looking increasingly like he has a good shot. At the least, I think he’ll be a good reliever
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2:42 |
: What are your thought on wool. Are you Anti-Wool? A Wool-ite per say?
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2:42 |
: I don’t like anything I can’t put in the washing machine
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2:42 |
: Oh no, did you go see the bicycle man?
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2:43 |
: Wait, what?
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2:43 |
: If you were ever given the opportunity to throw out the first pitch, would you practice day and night until you could toss it over the plate, or just lob the ball and shrug?
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2:43 |
: I used to pitch as a teenager so I’d try to be good again.
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2:43 |
: Well, relatively speaking; my fastball topped out at 70
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2:43 |
: and probably isn’t 50 now.
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2:43 |
: Is the announcement Smash Mouth-related?
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2:44 |
: You might as well be walkin’ on the sun.
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2:44 |
: Seeing Adam Jones traded to a world series contender would make you happy, right?
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2:44 |
: Yes
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2:44 |
: Both for me and for him
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2:44 |
: is Eloy Jimenez going to be basically Nelson Cruz?
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2:44 |
: You say that like it’s a bad thing
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2:44 |
: Did Boras Corp fire Heyman and hire you as the new hype man?
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2:45 |
: BRYCE HARPER HAS A 1.000 BA IN THE ABS IN WHICH HE’S NOT PUT OUT. SUCK THAT DOWN
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2:45 |
: Maybe the monsters aren’t the real monster, Dan. The monster is you.
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2:45 |
: Call me a monster one more time and I’ll club you and eat your bones.
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2:46 |
: Do you ever visit baseball think factory any more? It’s a ghost town compared to when zips was first released there. Sad.
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2:46 |
: I still read the arguments, mostly the Lounge
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2:46 |
: Do you have thoughts on what the Rockies should do with Jon Gray?
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2:46 |
: Be more patient
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2:46 |
: Did you finally give in and approve the ZiPS-Steamer merger?
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2:46 |
: STEAPS
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2:46 |
: Renaming Fangrahs to Dangraphs?
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2:46 |
: No, Apples already turned down my resdesign idea.
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2:47 |
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2:47 |
: A sandwich is a sandwich but a manwich is a ______?
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2:48 |
: sandwich
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2:48 |
: sloppy joes are sandwiches
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2:48 |
: Oh, you can post gifs in here!
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2:48 |
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2:49 |
: If you ever found yourself swept up in an anti-donut protest, would you show solidarity with the mob, or cave for an offer of free donuts?
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2:49 |
: I’m pronut
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2:49 |
: On a integer scale of [1,4], how much do you hate scales without a mid-point?
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2:49 |
: 2,2,3
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2:49 |
: Dan is going on writing/speaking strike until the Orioles show that at least 10% of the brain cells in the front office are active. …..He will be missed.
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2:49 |
: How will I feed my cats over the next 15 years?
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2:49 |
: Rockies: Buyers or sellers?
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2:49 |
: Poseur buyers
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2:50 |
: Announcement prediction: Dan is Taking a sabbatical to write a collection of poetry focused on reviving heroic couplet.
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2:50 |
: Were you booked as the opening act for Carson’s artisan kazoo band’s summer tour?
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2:50 |
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2:51 |
: Sorry, I’m just excited that GIFS work.
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2:51 |
I guess I’m generally asking what you think of Devers’ chance to be good the rest of this season. |
2:51 |
: I like Devers, but I’d want to upgrade Beltre short-term
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2:51 |
: Isn’t there an underrated chance that the Mariners just fall off a cliff one of these days and start playing sub .500 baseball the rest of the season?
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2:51 |
: There’s always a chance, but I think they’re at heart a .510-.520 team
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2:51 |
: If defensive metrics were better and more available in the 90s and beyond, would Jeter have moved off SS, would he have worked on his fielding more, or would the Yankees have just dismissed the available fielding metrics?
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2:52 |
: The latter I think. They’d have let Jeter pitch if he demanded it
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2:52 |
: Dan’s going to be taking on the role of ombudsman for Fangraphs. His first move will be looking into foul play for when Carson made fun of commercials made by long time Boston business owners.
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2:52 |
: Do you know me?
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2:52 |
: Dude, I’ve been to your house on Drury Lane
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2:52 |
: Not that a Muffin Man can afford to live there these days
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2:53 |
: When my sister was tiny, I used to sing her children’s songs, but darkly in a minor key. One of them was Muffin Man.
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2:53 |
: It totally helped disturb here
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2:53 |
: Is the announcement you’ve signed on to play One-eyed Willie for the remake of the Goonies?
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2:53 |
: IVE GOT TWO EYES LEARN TO COUNT PROLE
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2:53 |
: Please tell me you’re joining my “most-hated team”.
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2:53 |
: Does it have benefits?
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2:53 |
: Is “Dan Szymborski” a burner account for Dayton Moore?
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2:54 |
: Distinct possibility.
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2:54 |
: Is it true that one out of three announcements you make is food related? Are you entering an all-you-can-eat contest?
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2:54 |
: I can’t take Joey Chestnut.
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2:54 |
: It is called Fangraphs, but no looks at the graphs. Makes you think.
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2:54 |
: Fang Raphs
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2:54 |
: Also please don’t stop chatting. You’re the only FG writer who looks beyond my ridiculous username to answer questions.
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2:54 |
: Who’s giving you a show on MLB Network?
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2:55 |
: I would totally love to do a panel show, a baseball version of Bill Maher’s show, in which I have baseball players and random pop culture people and ask them inane questions before I lecture them.
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2:55 |
: LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, THE CLOWN SHOW HAS BEEN PUT ON HIATUS FOR RETOOLING
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2:55 |
: Ty Wigginton was the Orioles’ All Star representative one year!
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2:55 |
: Holy sharking fit, I totally forgot this
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2:56 |
: I’ve blocked out most of my O’s 2000-2010 memories, with a lot of help from alcohol and stubborness.
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2:57 |
: Every time someone brings up Buck Martinez’s stint broadcasting the O’s, I literally have ZERO memory of this
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2:57 |
: ANNOUNCEMENT TIME
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2:57 |
: Thanks for coming all! See you next time!
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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.