Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/13

Dan Szymborski: Party. Started. Explosions. Eroticism. One. Word. Sentences.

Comment From Gregory
Favorite whiskey-based cocktail?

Dan Szymborski: Old-Fashioned. Though I drink very little with any kind of hard liquor due to stomach issues.

Comment From zack
What in the name of Kyle Blanks is going on in San Diego?

Dan Szymborski: SD’s having a fun year.

Comment From Nelson
So, the Pirates…. That’s it. That’s my question.

Dan Szymborski: I have a piece on the Pirates tomorrow over at ESPN.

Comment From zach wheeler
Scouts always thought I was better than Matt Harvey. What Gives?

Dan Szymborski: Harvey’s turned possibilities into current news. It’s not like anyone hated Harvey.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
As a DBacks fan how hard should I be crying?

Dan Szymborski: Lost 6 of 7, but there’s a rule that you don’t get to cry as long as you’re still in first palce.

Comment From zack
Adam Lind sucked for three years, yet is currently good. WTF?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been a lot more patient – it actually started last year but didn’t show up in results

Comment From Brad
My original question was going to be, “Is Trevor Cahill broken?” but I decided that “How broken is Trevor Cahill?” would be more appropriate

Dan Szymborski: He keeps blaming his mechanics. Given pitchers, I expect there’s at least a chance that something’s physically wrong

Comment From Thors Hammer
Will Chris Davis hit the Warehouse this season? And, if so, will it still be standing after impact?

Dan Szymborski: Surprised he hasn’t hit it yet.

Dan Szymborski: I was there for that All-Star Game in Camden and people were going apeshit on Eutaw at the prospect of someone hitting the warehouse

Comment From Guest
Are there any Angels prospects worth noting? I don’t see any guys that could really make a big league impact

Dan Szymborski: Not all that exciting a group, probably one of the thinnest organizations right now

Dan Szymborski: (Now that they no longer get to count Trout).

Dan Szymborski: Angels are willing to trade prospects, which does catch up to you if you don’t re-stock well.

Dan Szymborski: Kaleb Cowart hitting like crap certanly hasn’t helped the rankings of the system.

Comment From zack
Padres should go all in, deal for cliff lee, vindicate swydan

Dan Szymborski: Not my cup of tea. I think the Padres really need more than one starter to really be threatening.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Thoughts on the run Jason Grilli has had the last 2+ calendar years?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure nobody’s crying OMG PIRATES LOST PROVEN CLOSER BYE BYE HANRAHAN!

Dan Szymborski: His slider is much better it was than back in his prospect days. He used to try to get the slider as hard as possible and it was less effective.

Comment From HN
Best whiskey based cocktail: Boulevardier

Dan Szymborski: Whiskey + Vermouth + Campari for those wondering

Dan Szymborski: I do like campari and soda in the summer

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Can Nate Eovaldi miss more bats going forward w/ the serious velo bump he’s shown this season?

Dan Szymborski: You would think it would help, but Eovaldi’s generally had trouble closing the deal

Comment From Jamie
When do the Mets start their traditional second half surge?

Dan Szymborski: My advice: Don’t go on a nunger strike waiting for it

Comment From Sam
I have the headline for your Pirates article…”They’re real, and they’re spectacular!”

Dan Szymborski: I don’t write headlines

Dan Szymborski: Though I did approve of “Maxwell Scherzer’s Silver Trophy” last week.

Dan Szymborski: Given that I frequently call him the Silver Hammer

Comment From Tomcat
Tyler Chatwood was converted to P as a HS senior, two years later he was in MLB, does his performance this year have staying power? Not as a

Dan Szymborski: I’d still be more confident if he had better peripherals. He’s a lot better at keeping the ball down now, which is super important in Coors Field, for obvious reasons

Comment From Travis
Thoughts on Julio Teheran? Other than those first three starts, he’s been pretty fantastic.

Dan Szymborski: I think i must have given “Don’t throw the towel in on Teheran after a bad 2012” answers in half my chats over the last year

Dan Szymborski: People were very quick to give up on a 22-year-old pitcher based on a lousy 2012

Comment From Bert
Need to trade one for pitching help, Marte or Cespedes? Thanks for the chat.

Dan Szymborski: Marte – I think Cespedes will be better than what you get for him

Comment From zack
Russell Martin signing=best offseason move? (Also, why the hell are the Yankees paying Vernon Wells the same amount of money as the Pirates are paying Martin, who is actually a really good player?)

Dan Szymborski: Chris Stewart’s actually been surprisingly non-horrific at the plate, though I don’t expect that to continue

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t like the Wells pickup then and don’t like it now

Comment From Bert
Thoughts on Geroge Springer? Cna he force his way to Houston before September?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll finish the minor league season, but if the Astros don’t get a taste of Springer, I’d be very surprised

Comment From Pete
What you think about swinging at the first pitch as opposed to being more patient at the plate?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like blanket rules – it depends on the player’s skill and the pitcher.

Comment From zack
The Phillies are really going to play Delmon in RF all year, aren’t they?

Dan Szymborski: His bat’s over replacement level for the season now! Bring out the celebratory ham for Delmon to eat.

Comment From Das Otter
Have you ever made your way to Wisconsin to have a Brandy Old Fashioned?

Dan Szymborski: I have to go all the way to Wisconsin for one?

Comment From Crusty
Chris Davis for June… more HR’s, less BB’s, more K’s. What does it mean?

Dan Szymborski: Some regression was always likely – it’s easy to get off your absolute best approach when things are going amazingly

Dan Szymborski: But given Davis’s year, you couldn’t complain unless Crush ran over a family member with a car.

Dan Szymborski: And even then, a close family member – not like a second cousin or something.

Comment From JayRay
Since they’ve stayed in the hunt through all the injuries, I’d have to imagine the Yankees will be serious buyers over the next month. Which of their prospects are likely to be moved and which are untouchable?

Dan Szymborski: You’d also imagine that they wouldn’t have left the outfield in that state over the offseason, but that’s exactly what they did.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect a quiet deadline for the Yankees, actually. I believe there’s a realization that this edition isn’t the one to start cashing in good prospects for.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a second-tier guy, but I’d be surprised to see any blockbusters.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Junichi Tazawa….come on down! You’re the next contestant on “The Red Sox bullpen hasn’t been quite right since Papelbon left but it doesn’t really matter”!

Comment From Pete
The Reds have been scuffling a little bit lately. Any chance they let Dusty Baker go before the end of the season?

Dan Szymborski: They’re still too good to do something that drastic in-season

Comment From Ben G
Do you think the Dbacks should be looking for a starter at the deadline>

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell – they have a lot of wait-and-see guys.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Can the Cardinals find regular playing time for Matt Adams when they are not in interleague play? Any chance he gets in the lineup when (not if) David Freese gets injured again?

Dan Szymborski: Right now, he needs injuries. He’s in that Allen Craig rule form a few years ago

Comment From Spence
Minnesota Twins are 6 games out of first and most certainly not even entertaining the thought of buying at the deadline. Phillies are 9 games out of first place and apparently not sold on selling. I don’t… I don’t get it?

Dan Szymborski: If your GM is going to give Ryan Howard $125 million extension past current contract, you should already suspect that there are serious delusions at play.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
There was something incredibly aesthetically pleasing about Miggy’s HR that landed w/ a splash in the Rays Tank…correct?

Dan Szymborski: It was certainly fitting, and you don’t get that much against other teams.

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m tired of hearing about the stupid UK monarchy and would be in favor of him taking out various Windsors with HRs if they visited KC

Comment From atoms
So, it turns out that the Dodgers weren’t actually sucky, they were just hurt?

Dan Szymborski: Rumors of their suckitude were greatly exaggerated.

Dan Szymborski: Incidentally, I’ve already left instructions that whenever I require an epitaph, I want it to be “Rumors of my demise were not, in fact, greatly exaggerated.”

Comment From Dan
Tons of rookies having huge impacts on contenders. Do you see any more guys getting called up and getting playing time for winning teams?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta see more Carlos Martinez at some point.

Dan Szymborski: And I’d love to see Taillon just called up just for the Pirates bragging that they were winning even before using him!

Comment From Dave
Do the Pirates trade James McDonald? When will our rotation become unbroken?

Dan Szymborski: By an dby.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think McDonald has a ton of trade value at this minute.

Comment From Nick
I bet Chase Headley wishes he had been more willing to talk extension with the Padres in April/May. What does his future hold?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there’s always a risk in not signing a contract. He’ll be better, though.

Dan Szymborski: And I’d still like to see Headley in a different park

Comment From Mike C
have you tried RTS’s like starcraft warcraft etc.? how about League of legends?

Dan Szymborski: Always loved the straight-up Warcraft games. Wonder if we’ll ever get another one of those.

Dan Szymborski: Was never into Starcraft as I don’t care for the setting.

Dan Szymborski: and League of Legends/Dota, I’ve played, but so much of the game involves trying *not* to win and obnoxious farming that it gets annoying.

Comment From Dionysus
Fangraphs Current Projected Final Standings have BAL and TB in a one game playoff… in order to play a one game playoff against OAK. How exciting would that be?

Dan Szymborski: A few days ago, ZiPS had Red Sox projected at 90 and everyone else tied at 86

Comment From kevinthecomic
Better chance of turning it around this year: Josh Reddick or Starlin Castro?

Dan Szymborski: Castro

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Does Brian Dozier have any hopes of getting back in the good graces of the babip gods?

Dan Szymborski: The BABIP gods have no good graces. They are cruel gods, who do not suffer man.

Comment From Sean T.
Mechanics or an injury, do you expect Cahill to return to form at some point and be a good #2?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so. Always hard to tell with pitchers.

Comment From Mike C
I’m in S korea right now and SC & LOL seems like the only games ppl play here

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Ric Flair or Hulk Hogan?

Dan Szymborski: Flair.

Comment From Steve
What exactly is ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Rest of Season

Comment From Tribe
Kipnis is the new Pedroia. That is all.

Dan Szymborski: Smells like a career year to me. I expect him to return to being a B+ player, but I’ve been wrong before

Comment From davey j
What kind of haul do you see the Cubs grabbing for Garza and Gregg?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t think it’s going to be a haul, but the’ll get a few interesting guys.

Dan Szymborski: No A-listers.

Comment From Steve
ZIPS likes a .279 average for Matt Carpenter ROS. Matt playing over his head in the first half?

Dan Szymborski: If you ask me if he’s an .890 OPS guy, I’ll say no. But he’s handled 2B admirably and there’s no reason to not be very high on him.

Dan Szymborski: Now, Kozmic Pete probably needs to take a sad trip to the far side of the barn

Comment From Blockhead
Leonys Martin has been worth over 1 WAR more than Hamilton. Odds you thought you would be saying that at the beginning of the season? I’m willing to bet he outproduces Hamilton from here on out as well now that he’s getting every day starts.

Dan Szymborski: I had Martin about 2 WAR over a full season of games and Hamilton at around 3, so it’s not *that* shocking. I do think we haven’t seen the end of useful Hamilton

Comment From Oden
What are the chances Jacob Turner outperforms Anibal Sanchez over the 5 year contract Anibal just received? Without taking the 60-70 million less he’ll cost into consideration.

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low. Though he’s still younger than people think.

Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t really that good in the minors.

Comment From ManBearPuig
This IS my Regression!!!!!!!!!

Comment From Rated Rookie
Cracker Barrel going with one.word.sentences. in their highway billboard is the official death knell for that grammatical styling.

Dan Szymborski: Ham. Eggs. Knick-knacks.

Comment From DBremen
How well would Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine have done in the Questec era?

Dan Szymborski: I think Maddux would have fared better.

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t think much of umpiring.

Dan Szymborski: Bring on teh robots.

Comment From Guest
How much does the discussion of Wheeler’s tipped pitches affect his value ROS and long term?

Dan Szymborski: That’s really hard to get a feel on from a statistical standpoint. One of those things floating in the aether.

Dan Szymborski: And hey, everybody knew what Mariano Rivera was going to throw you

Comment From Dionysus
You are Ben Cherington. What trades, if any, do you make at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Schierholtz, DeJesus, Garza

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Is Matt Cain back to Ace levels?

Dan Szymborski: he’s had what, 6 QS in a row?

Dan Szymborski: He was solid in May too, it’ sjust that his start sucked so bad

Comment From Chris
Whats been up with goldie?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been hitting more like you would expect him to reasonably.

Dan Szymborski: Too many peopel suddnly anointed him Top 3 1B.

Dan Szymborski: When we had that franchise player draft chat, you should’ve seen how many pro-goldschmidt comments there were. lots of people were mad that he wasn’t seltected over votto

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
When are the Tigers going to call up Castellanos? It seems like he’s been mashing for a month now.

Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking they’re about to, but they never actually do it.

Comment From atoms
Is Stephen Fife a legit MLB starter, or is he smoke-and-mirrors and due for regression? His MLB peripherals this year seem solid, but they’re better than his minor league numbers (esp. K’s). Can he be a #3/#4 guy?

Dan Szymborski: He’s pitching well legitimately, but I don’t think he’s got all that much upside.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he changes speeds anywhere near well enough to become the next fister or anything

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, with Marcus McBeth out of baseball, we’ll never see the payoff of the Fife/McBeth grudge match.

Comment From Dionysus
A nunger strike? What have you got against nuns? Hit with one too many rulers in your day?

Comment From HStone
Jameson + Ginger Ale = Summer Fun! Refreshing, yet quite manly do the high octane Irish mouth wash!

Comment From 5-cent head
Do you have any idea how bad Harper’s knee is? rotonews was writing that its still swollen….

Dan Szymborski: He’s determined to get back in the game. May be one of those things that’s not quite right until he has an offseason to rest

Comment From Yan
Bud Norris goes to Baltimore, San Diego, San Francisco or the field?

Dan Szymborski: SF

Comment From Blockhead
Where would your rank Jon Daniels as far as current MLB GMs go?

Dan Szymborski: Daniels is way up there. The Eaton trade early on was horrific, but he improved much since then.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to fault him for Chris Davis – Crush wasn’t inevitably going to become the player he was in 2013.

Comment From Scott
Thoughts on Jonathan Schoop? Ceiling better than an average regular?

Dan Szymborski: His absolute *ceiling* is higher, but I think he’ll simply be a decent player rather than a near-star or better.

Comment From Crusty
I’m thinking of abandoning prospect hunting altogether in my keeper league, going forward. How do you expect I’ll fare? It’s amazing the young MLB players you can pick up off the waiver wire after the original owners sour on them, after holding them for 3+ years.

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the league, really.

Comment From Guest
I need a pitcher badly Dickey Garza or Liriano?

Dan Szymborski: Liriano’s safest at this point, which sounds reallyw eird.

Comment From Tom
Is Manny Machado a sell high in fantasy? My league doesn’t count doubles and I have to think his BA comes down.

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Not because Machado isn’t an amazing player, but that you’re not getting full payoff for his awesomeness in fantasy.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s been a fantasy league in history that hasn’t had at least 1 owner that too heavily evaluated his fantasy players as if you get points from real life

Dan Szymborski: Remember, you don’t get anything for his phenomenal glove, either.

Comment From Budblack
My final roster spot, two have to go, please rank for ROS – Cahill, Cashner, Erasmo Ramirez?

Dan Szymborski: Cashner/Erasmo if I’m gambling, Cahill/Cashner if I’m playing it safer.

Comment From Crusty
When a writer like Dave Cameron openly postulates in a piece that Utley should be dealt to the A’s, does it make it more or less difficult for such a deal to get consummated?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it really makes a difference.

Comment From Bob
Buxton – why is everyone always hoping for a new trout? Trout is like, 21. he’s perfect. why can’t we be happy with TROUT? SO MUCH MORE fun to come amirite?

Dan Szymborski: People have gotten spoiled by Trout, Harper, Machado over the last 18 months.

Dan Szymborski: NOT EVERY DAY CAN BE DOUBLE CHRISTMAS~!

Comment From atoms
How likely is it that Miguel Sano gets at least a September call-up? He has an ISO of .340 this year between A+ and AA.

Dan Szymborski: He’s possibly heading to at least a little espresso shot.

Comment From Crusty
Uehara gives up 1 ER, in one outing, which the Red Sox still went on to win, and the fans are restless? Sheesh.

Comment From Joe
Do you lend any credence to R.A. Dickey’s comment that his back is feeling better? I missed his last start, so I don’t really know what his knuckler looked like in his last start — though the results were nice.

Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell – confirmation bias is always in play, after all

Dan Szymborski: His back may feel better becuase his knuckler is working more often than in April

Comment From Marcus A.
Any knowledge on the guy the Orioles just gave up for Eric Thames? Worth caring about if you’re a Mariners fan or just minor league depth?

Dan Szymborski: Kelly’s a plate discipline freak. He’s more of a utility guy as long as you don’t need him to be Ss

Dan Szymborski: His 2B defense isn’t very good and he doesn’t have enough power to play 3B regularly in the majors

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
@Spence the Twins economics aren’t based on convincing the fans they have winner. The Phillies need their high attendance numbers or else they have to do a lot more than selling. So the Twins have the latitude to be honest. The Phillies have Amaro, AKA Omar Minaya Jr.

Comment From Tom
What’s your take on Civ5? Ever play Europa Universalis?

Dan Szymborski: Civ5 is fun. EU is more of an intense strategy game than Civ – I love all the Paradox games. CK2!

Comment From Marcus A.
Would you rather be a team that is fairly complete and just needs to improve at the margins (think Rangers) or a team with an obvious black hole that could be massively improved upon as the deadline approaches (think Cardinals SS)?

Dan Szymborski: I like the obvious black hole – makes acquisitions easier

Dan Szymborski: improving a complete team can be a frigging pain as the bar for getting a marginal gain is very high

Comment From Rennie
Is it to early for me to feel good about Hosmer?

Dan Szymborski: ssssh don’t jinkx it!

Comment From Jay
How are we evaluating Chris Davis in a keeper league? Is this Brady Anderson? Or a changed player? ZIPS doesn’t seem too confident in him.

Dan Szymborski: Brady Anderson was really a terrific player elsewise

Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS

Comment From Evan
Does any month have greater/worse predictive value over the others? Potential example: September and April are the worst months to draw samples from.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t found anything useful there.

Dan Szymborski: Even if there’s signal there, the noise is just tremendous

Comment From zuzzles
If Chris Davis were to hit 62 homers and break the “clean” record, do I have to suffer an offseason of “is he or isn’t he roiding” debate? It’s gonna happen no matter what isn’t it

Dan Szymborski: I generally dismiss anyone who starts talking about the “clean” record.

Dan Szymborski: No such thing.

Dan Szymborski: I should say, that if a player had Maris’s exact career today, that player would instantly be assumed to be a steroid user.

Dan Szymborski: Imagine a player that:

Dan Szymborski: Goes from 16–>39–>61 after the first widely available steroid hit the US (dianabol), broke down physically in his late 20s, had a breakdown with team and fans that had organization calling him angry, and died of lymphoma very young.

Dan Szymborski: That player would instantly be called a cheater.

Comment From Das Otter
The optional substitution of brandy for whiskey in Old Fashioneds seems very localized to Wisconsin, that is why. But I suppose they do have brandy everywhere, but come on! Why not just come hang out in Wisco?

Dan Szymborski: I have a friend in Wisconsin (used to teach at Boise State)

Dan Szymborski: But i mean, I can have a brandy old-fashioned anywhere. I can just ask for brandy!

Comment From Izzy
Certain players don’t have ZIPS ROS projections, mainly ones that didn’t qualify in the beginning of the year. Gausman, Wacha, Puig, etc. Can you fix that?

Dan Szymborski: No. FanGraphs does not have an in-season translation mechanism, so I’d prefer it be mostly guys that have played all year

Comment From Oden
Dan, does your comment on Turner/Sanchez suggest you aren’t overly concerned with Anibal’s shoulder? Guy who has been through what he has, any soreness in shoulder scares the heck out of me.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m very concerned about his shoulder, but I think he’ sthe better pitcher easily.

Dan Szymborski: I’m concerned about all arm-related parts of a pitcher at all times

Comment From Noether
Is Asdrubal Cabrera still an Indian on August 1?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Tom
Any chance I get to see your GAR rankings before I kick over?

Dan Szymborski: Still trying to get my head around the 19th century issue. I probably won’t be looking at it again until the offseason

Comment From Theo
When does Ryan Jackson finally usurp Kozma?

Dan Szymborski: he should’ve already. THe Cards are being overly conservative here

Dan Szymborski: It’s not messing with success – Kozma’s not much of a part of their success.

Comment From Tom
What are some of your favorite games for your phone?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t play much in the way of phone games. I work from home, remember, so I have access to an excellent gaming rig very frequently.

Dan Szymborski: And when the GF gets me putting on pants and leaving the house, she’s definitely not going to let me play any phone games!

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
http://deadspin.com/michiganmagic1-no-chris-davis-chrisdavis_19-june-635341719

Dan Szymborski: On that note, can’t push too far into overtime – have an appointment at 1:45 to get my bi-yearly shaming from my gastroenterologist, who keeps trying to get me to eat things on that acid reflux-friendly list. No caffeine, dairy, soda, alcohol, spicy foods? That’s most of my diet.

Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find me at ESPN.com, on FanGraphs for chats and projections, and DSzymborski on twitter

Dan Szymborski: and playing TF2 (same as my twitter handle) because I play that a lot.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!