Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/13/15

Dan Szymborski: Noon: A Time for Chatting

Comment From Neil Huntington
How about them Boccos!

Dan Szymborski: Bocco?

Dan Szymborski: Sounds like a Commedia dell’arte stock character that got banned for making children cry.

Dan Szymborski: “Hey kids, it’s Bocco, the Clown Prince of Reaping Souls!”

Comment From GSon
and.. Dan is right on time.. whuttah guy !!

Dan Szymborski: Must be an accident

Comment From Gary
How come the FG zips updates don’t take into account minor league numbers for MLB players? I’ve noticed Oswaldo Arcia’s haven’t budged. Speaking of which, why the hell is he still in the minor leagues?

Dan Szymborski: Still need to get a minor league translation thing up.

Comment From Josh G
What do you expect from Gregory Polanco in the second half? Will the power be there?

Dan Szymborski: It *should* but I’m a bit concerned

Comment From GSon
early consideration for AL Cy Young.. Sonny Gray.. and everyone else?

Dan Szymborski: Keuchel and Gray are the frontrunners

Comment From Schide
Everyone loves Bocco ball

Comment From dom
Cardinals have better FG playoff odds than Dodgers, yet LA is given 19% chance of winning WS compared to 9% Cardinals? Is this basically Kershaw effect?

Dan Szymborski: That’s hard for me to answer (remember guys, the Dan Doesn’t Know Internal Working of FanGraphs So Don’t Direct FanGraphs-Specific Questions His Way discussion)

Dan Szymborski: But there *should* be a big difference – raw playoff prob is kinda meaningless here.

Dan Szymborski: The difference between 93% division and 61% division is massive.

Dan Szymborski: A wild card essentially drops your prob in half.

Dan Szymborski: Now, the diff is still larger than I have in ZiPS when I run my own methodology, but I can’t speak more than that.

Comment From Houzer
Tigers are just gross right now … think they could pull off a Soria for Castro trade?

Dan Szymborski: Which Castro?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, dont’t hink Soria has much trade value

Comment From Schide
Why aren’t foul tips reviewable and do you think the league will actually care enough to look into adding it any time soon?

Dan Szymborski: They’re trying to limit what’s reviewable for pragmatic reasons

Comment From Los
Are you going to make it all the way to Cincinnati for All Star Week?

Dan Szymborski: All the way? It’s an hour drive for me. ALready been down at Cincy twice for a few functions

Comment From laxtonto
Do you want to come and teach my Freshman toady intro Stat?

Dan Szymborski: I do not have the patience to teach.

Comment From Pale Hose
Mike Trout has made being awesome boring.

Dan Szymborski: I joked on twitter last week that Trout’s kinda becoming this Run-of-the-Mill Future Inner Circle Hall of Famer

Dan Szymborski: which sounds weird. when it comes down to it, Bryce Harper on some level tends to be more interesting

Comment From Dy-nasty fantasy baseball player
Was offered Daniel Norris for my Corey Seager in a 12-team dynasty (H2H points). I have machado and Correa manning SS and 3B, but I’m not sure if I’m underselling Seager. My pitching staff is alright and I have Ryu, Darvish, and Giolito for the future

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s an unfair trade, though of course everything depends on your league keeper rules

Comment From alex
Nick Castellanos, putting it together or simple hot streak?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a better hitter than he’s shown in the early months this year

Dan Szymborski: Now, less than enthralled about defense

Comment From Joe
Say something nice about Trevor Rosenthal.

Dan Szymborski: Before this weekend, I think he had allowed one run since early May

Comment From White Ford Brocco
CJ Cron mash enough the rest of the year to justify his absurd K/BB?

Dan Szymborski: Not really.

Comment From Josh G
Do you think the Red Sox caught Buchholz’s injury in time before any real damage was done? When is your best guess for a return date?

Dan Szymborski: This is hard to say – I’m not his doctor

Comment From dom
is your cat catting right now

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a cat under my left arm and one sitting on my lap

Comment From Raoul Duke
Would this be a decent way to incorporate error bars into draft decisions: Total up the Z-Scores for each measured category. Then reduce by the percentage chance that the player will have an OPS+ of 120. It’s not perfect because we don’t have that confidence rating for each category. But at least it incorporates some measure of confidence that the player will be better than average. … Or am I completely confused.

Dan Szymborski: Might be an OK kludge, but I think you’re overthinking it – I’m not sure you get a ton of benefit here for the extra work

Comment From duhhh buhhh
QUICK DAN RELEASE YOUR HOME RUN DERBY PROJECTIONS

Dan Szymborski: Well, ZiPS doesn’t do HR derby projections. My picks are in the ESPN panel picks, don’t know if they’re up or not

Comment From Scott
Hi Dan, what are some good resources for someone who is interested in doing their own projections but has no clue where to start? Especially with regards to translating minor league stats (and college stats for basketball)

Dan Szymborski: I have a very old article (about 20 years old) on calculating Bill James MLEs. There’s not a whole lot of infor out there – the best thing to do is develop your own tools.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t tend to write straight-up sabermetrics pieces in this manner.

Comment From Idiot GM
How come GMs aren’t more aggressive taking bullpen 2 guys and making them their closer? Why go after Ramos or Chapman if you could get Carter Capps for far less?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody gets fired if magical closer fails

Comment From Neil Huntington
I cant see the Pirates adding more than a bench bat or two at the deadline.

Dan Szymborski: Neither can I

Comment From Bret
Padres are apparently asking teams about James Shields, which got me thinking – who says no to a deal based around James Shields for Jose Reyes?

Dan Szymborski: Jays should be more interested in trading future for present rather than simply reallocating MLB level players.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the Jays would be dealing from a surplus here

Comment From Doug
Seems like we’re well past the point of Lucroy rebounding from his injury. He’s now just having an awful year offensively, right?

Dan Szymborski: He’sa ctually been solid since coming back

Dan Szymborski: Not amazing, but just tallied it up – 274/335/370. Not great, but that’s a plus.

Dan Szymborski: He’s young enough still I think he’ll have a better 2016

Comment From Scott
10 players in a dynasty league? Doesn’t have to be in order. Sale starting to get close?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Julio Pepper
This is something that’s always bothered me re:contract extensions, related to Dave Cameron’s most recent podcast. Players like Longoria/McCutchen/Sale are just buying insurance from their teams, and the team is getting a huge discount and reaping benefits. Why does this have to be done through the team? Couldn’t players just buy insurance against performance/injury risk during their minimum wage/arb years from some third party that’s much closer to their market value?

Dan Szymborski: Injury insurance and performance insurance are very, very different things.

Dan Szymborski: Players and teams do take out insurance against health, but insurance against disapopintment? That’s something you don’t really see.

Dan Szymborski: (With players that is)

Comment From Joe
If Cincy is holding out on selling Cueto until post all-star festivities, why the bloody hell did he start on Sunday? This ensures that he WON’T APPEAR IN THE GAME!!!

Dan Szymborski: You’re assuming the Reds pay any attention to their decisions.

Comment From Josh G
Is Matt Duffy this good?

Dan Szymborski: *This* good? No.

Dan Szymborski: But he’s passed into the realm of decent, like Crawford a few years back.

Comment From K
True or False: Adam Lind will be a Bocco at the end of August

Dan Szymborski: Falso

Comment From K
Chris Archer has to be an AL CY candidate too, no?

Dan Szymborski: He *is* but as of right now, I think Gray/Keuchel are the first tier

Comment From Bryan
Who would you rather the Mets trade for – Upton? Gomez? Bruce? Someone else?

Dan Szymborski: Bruce probably the most interesting – Mets should not be interested in trading their pitching depth for 2 months of anybody

Comment From laxtonto
Where do you think the wave of prospects this year will rank in comparison to other talent heavy single seasons?? Is it possible to pull all the rookie eligible players for the last 20 or 30 years and and compare WAR to see?

Dan Szymborski: Very highly. This is on my article to-do list so I won’t speculate further.

Comment From GSon
Is the Dan in any way related to the Donald.. and can we speak privately about a no interest non-repayable loan?…

Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of.

Comment From Peter
Curious: Why does a Byron Buxton .270-ish in the Southern League but get exposed quickly in the majors, but a Miguel Sano hits .270-ish in the Southern League and looks a whole lot different in his first 11 games? (Yes, he will get exposed to some degree, too, but still…)

Dan Szymborski: You’re taking small sample sizes too seriously.

Dan Szymborski: Willie Mays wasn’t “exposed” when he started his career 1-for-26. He just had a shitty week.

Dan Szymborski: This was a popular question when George Springer came up

Dan Szymborski: And yeah, those sample sizes matter. 100 at-bats doesn’t tell you much. And they guys having 100 at-bats that are bad aren’t going to look good doing it.

Dan Szymborski: People go .500 OPS in 40 PA all the time. And none of them look awesome while doing it

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Hey Dan, I have been on vacation for 2 weeks… What did I miss and what should I look up??

Dan Szymborski: Well, Tsipras negotiates less competently than Ruben Amaro.

Comment From Death
Have you ever had an affliction with some player? I mean, let’s say for me, I always said Giavotella was good, mind you I had no reason for it. I just, for some reason, thought he was going to be a starter if given a shot. Same with Josh Harrison, which is how I got him in an NL only league last year. He got called up and I always, ALWAYS picked him up when he got the call. Mind you, there’s others who haven’t found success and ended up as AAAA guys, but is it a common thing? I love it, it makes me look like a mad genius when they break out or at least start and my mates or league buddies always ask how I figured that out.

Dan Szymborski: I was a Scutaro/Arrieta believer for a long time, but was actually cured of the affliction for both briefly before they both actually became good

Comment From Apoplectic
Is Marte a good comp for Betts? Who has the better second half?

Dan Szymborski: Not perfect, but not the worse I’ve herad

Comment From Balls
So who you got winning the NL Central?

Comment From Michael
Why does ZiPS hate Steven Wright? Is it blatant general anti-knuckleballer bias or something about him in particular?

Dan Szymborski: Card

Dan Szymborski: Mostly becausehe hasn’t been all that amazing in the minors – ZiPS liked Wakefield and Dickey just fine

Comment From Andrew
Who has a better hit tool: Kyle Schwarber or Kris Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: Bryant, but I’m praising with dim insults.

Dan Szymborski: faint insults?

Comment From Somewhat Dan Szymborski
Will Mitch Moreland continue to get enough ABs to be worth it going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: How are you *somewhat* me? I think that’s pretty binary

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
What are your thoughts on a skill competition before the derby? (Fastest around the bases, and stuff like that)?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like, teams would not

Comment From dom
Which player’s WAR will inspire a writer to pull a Jeff Passan and start this argument all over again? This year’s Alex Gordon?

Dan Szymborski: Jeff does good work – people just read way too much into a few phrases out of context in that piece.

Comment From Oh By The Way…
I mean Indianapolis has 23%!!! poverty rate.

Dan Szymborski: OK, uh, thanks?

Dan Szymborski: That’s gotta be one of the most random submitted comments.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Also, I’ve never seen a team more than this year’s Twins I love to watch hit as much as I hate to watch them on defense.

Dan Szymborski: The play defense worse than…let me think of an analogy

Dan Szymborski: The Twins play defense worse than John Bell Hood playing Civilization V with Win Butler after he sold all his catapults for beer money.

Dan Szymborski: THere’s a whole slew of anti-Indiana comments that I’m not posting. I am very confused by them.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
How many different “work” files do you have on your computer? Are your work files well organized, or is ZIPS sitting beside photos of Natalie Dormer? 😉

Dan Szymborski: My files are organized, but I name documents very very poorly.

Dan Szymborski: I’m really bad at naming “one-time use” things in Excel very poorly

Dan Szymborski: It suggests book 1 and then I end up with book and then a bunch of random crap that doesn’t identify the file

Dan Szymborski: here, I took a small screenshot

:

Dan Szymborski: Now, if I need to reference something later that I didn’t name well, I have trouble finding

Comment From dom
you can tell a cat by the way it is

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Any Chance that the Yankees trade CC to the NL for a lottery ticket type prospect? (and eat a portion of his salary)

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Archibald
put on some pants Dan

Dan Szymborski: That defeats the purpose of working from home

Comment From Johnson Nash
Can we stop acting like the Reds NEED to sell? They are only 7 games back of the WC. This is a good team. Disassembling because of 7 games is ridiculous.

Dan Szymborski: This is not a good team.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a team that could only be good If Everything Magically Worked Out and Nothing Bad Happened Ever.

Dan Szymborski: *Only* 7 games back?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a completely absurd statement

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the list of what the REds have to do just to gain a coin flip playin to the “real” playoffs

Dan Szymborski: Win 15 games/162 more than 2 of the 3 NL Central teams ahead of them.

Dan Szymborski: AND be 13 games/162 better than the Mets

Dan Szymborski: AND be 11 games/162 better than the Giants

Dan Szymborski: AND be 5 games/162 better than the Diamondbacks

Dan Szymborski: AND 3 better than the Braves/162. AND be better than the Padres. AND not be outplayed by the teams below them

Dan Szymborski: *All* of these things have to be true…just for a wild card.

Dan Szymborski: The Reds are not a good team. If you’re deluded enough to think a mediocre team that is *9th* among non-division leading teams *and* 7 1/2 games back isn’t a bleak division, well, you can imagine the punchline

Dan Szymborski: Excuse me, 8th

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Reds playoff probs at 0.2%. And ZiPS likes the REds more than Steamer does.

Dan Szymborski: But maybe ZiPS is off. Maybe the REds are five times as likely to make the playoffs as ZiPS thinks. So they’re a 1-in-100 chance. Big @%#@% deal.

Dan Szymborski: While we do this, I’m going to open the ZiPS Puter. And figure out what average winning percentage the Reds would need just to be 5% at making the playoffs.

Comment From Pete
Do you think either the Marlins or Stanton regrets the deal and if so, which one more?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either regret it right now

Comment From Scott
Do you know if teams take into account time between innings when considering whether or not to send a pitcher back out there? Or do you think most just look purely at pitch count?

Dan Szymborski: They do. In the most extreme situations, look at rain delays

Comment From B
Will Rusney Castillo get another shot or has he been effectively De Aza’d?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get another shot

Comment From hfb
what’s the best way to go about figuring how inflated or deflated a slash line is by BABIP? if a player is batting 350/450/550 with a 400 BABIP, is a “true performance” estimation of 250/350/450 a safe way to go (ie, just subtracting the surplus above 300)? or would it have to be a case by case analysis?

Dan Szymborski: To do it right is a little complex – as rules of thumb go, simpler is better

Comment From duhhh buhhh
are the astros who we thought they were (not very good)?

Dan Szymborski: I though they were a 77-79 win team coming into the season. And I think they’ve shown enough to think they’re a true 80-83 win team right now. They had a great position, but they’ve played worse than expected lately

Comment From Julio Pepper
But when a good player signs a long, team friendly extension, a lot of that is performance insurance, right?

Dan Szymborski: Essentially – but a payout structure between a player and a team is different than between a third-party insuring.

Comment From Art Vandelay
I’m confused, I thought Cueto didn’t even make the team?

Dan Szymborski: He didn’t

Dan Szymborski: Umm, the sky outside just turned black as night, so given my neighborhood history of thunderstorms, I may suddenly disappear in the next 15 minutes

Dan Szymborski: The red is where I am.

Dan Szymborski: Give me a second guys, I want to run upstairs and turn off the AC.

Dan Szymborski: OK, back

Dan Szymborski: Sorry. While the AC is only a couple months old, I don’t want to take any chances with any kind of electric surger.

Comment From Lorna Doone
What depth do the Mets have to deal from? Would love Bruce or Frazier but who do they part with?

Dan Szymborski: Frazier would be a lot more.

Comment From Johnson Nash
Dan S is an idiot

Dan Szymborski: Yes, Dan Sickles’ charge into the Peach Orchard without support was mighty dumb, even if it had the effect of disrupting the Confed plan a bit.

Comment From STiVo
for Scott: Doesn’t Podhozer have a book called “Projecting X”? I think that’d be a good resource for someone who wants to try projections on their own. Pretty sure that’s the basis of the book. Check Amazon.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t read it yet, but Mike does good work

Comment From grand admiral braun
Do you expect Kris Bryant to become a .400obp guy consistently? He’s in the .380 realm right now as a rookie (but with a high BABIP), but I don’t think he’ll strike out 30% of the time in the near future either.

Dan Szymborski: .400 is tough. I expect him to be a solid but not terrific OBP guy

Comment From Johnny5Alive
I am not kidding when I say Alderson admitted recently that Cuddyer is playing too much. The guy you basically gave starting player money and gave up the rights to a first round prospect before you didnt expect to be playing almost every day? And you are openly admitting that? How about just admitting you were wrong? This guy

Dan Szymborski: Cuddyer was a terrible signing at the time that looks even worse now

Comment From Peter
Fair point on Sano/Buxton – but you’re talking numbers, and I’m talking at-bats. There’s a big difference in the types of at-bats they’ve had. That’s not a great vs. shitty week. That’s something else.

Dan Szymborski: Nobody looks good with a .500 OPS

Comment From Jeet
Hey Dan, I saw that you said that ARod is a sell-high. Is age the only reason you don’t believe in him?

Dan Szymborski: Age and the fact its’ been a long time since he’s played this well

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, he *is* very old, he *is* an injury risk, and it’s been a long time since he’s been good

Dan Szymborski: Is he guaranteed to regress? Not at all. He just needs to regress more than the average fantasy owner thinks he will.

Comment From Bran Stark
Do I rescue Jon Snow or nah?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he’ll be involved in the storyline

Comment From jocephus
did ZIPS determine your HR derby champion?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Gung-Ho Jang
THIS IS MY NAME!!!

Dan Szymborski: As far as I know, what we’re using is the romanization that he approves of.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
FWIW, I also basically like Jeff Passan. I don’t know why people hate on him so much.

Dan Szymborski: It’s very nitpicky. And I’m not known for being a patient fellow, but I’ve never had any issue with Passan’s use of sabermetrics.

Comment From Aunt Jessie

You do realize that the comments for the remainder of this chat are going to be analogy suggestions, right?

Comment From mapsamountainrange
Given a large enough sample size, are batter or pitcher handedness-splits more predictive?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers platoon splits tend to stabilize before batters do

Dan Szymborski: But it’s a *lot* of PA required. Generic platoon splits predict better than actually platoon ones for years.

Comment From Josh
What do you think the best division race is going to be?

Dan Szymborski: Central. Not as many participants, but I’ll take a 2 or 3 team race of good teams over 4 or 5 middling ones

Comment From RRR
How much does ZiPS take real life factors into consideration? Derek Norris is breaking down because the team has been riding him into the ground, does ZiPS factor something like that in?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS only takes real life factors into consideration if they can be objectively denoted somewhere and the type has proven to have predictive value

Dan Szymborski: For instance, players do not underperform projections in the week or month after they return from the bereavement list

Dan Szymborski: (As a group. Obviously some will overperform and some will underrperform)

Comment From Houzer
for early retirement- slow growth dividend portofolio safely yielding 3%, or higher growth portfolio increasing by 4% average?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how old you are

Comment From Maxamuz

Dan Szymborski: I have a friend who will love that gif

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Now the time to deal Todd Frazier?

Dan Szymborski: Absofrigginglutely

Comment From Book1fuckyou
I thought I was special 🙁

Comment From dom
do cats regress to the mean

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine they do

Comment From Francis McDormand
Things that bother Dan Szymborski: hitler, famine, earthquakes

Comment From Francis McDormand
Things that REALLY BOTHER Dan Szymborski: someone saying the Reds might make the playoffs

Comment From Josh G
Ben Zobrist plays for the___________ on August 1.

Dan Szymborski: fartsmegmas

Comment From Johnny5Alive
hey dan, let the reds fan believe in miracles.

Comment From mapsamountainrange
As a Reds fan, I love this playoff rant. They’re delusional if they think they can be above mediocre in the next three years. They need to sell, and if Walt was smart enough, they should do a Braves style rebuild.

Dan Szymborski: For the Reds to be a coin flip to make the playoffs, I have to tell ZiPS that they are a “true” .652 team.

Dan Szymborski: The current best by ZiPS is the Dodgers at .567.

Dan Szymborski: If I tell ZiPS that the Reds are the best team in baseball (.568 midpoint), they *still* have only a 12.4% projected chance.

Dan Szymborski: If I tell ZiPS that the Reds are the average of the 2nd and 3rd best projected teams in baseball, the Pirates and Cards (.542 and .540 respectively) then their projected playoff shot is *still* just 6.5%

Dan Szymborski: The Reds are not this good. Remember The Stand? You have a slightly better chance of surviving Captain Trips then the REds do to make the playoffs.

Comment From TigersFan
Is it finally time for the Tigers to just throw in the towel and start rebuilding?

Dan Szymborski: It’s getting close, but it’s worth waiting to see if they’re in a better position in 2 weeks or not.

Comment From laxtonto
Off to teach, be nice to the chat minions

Comment From Andrelton Simmons Big Rig
Chris Sale not in that AL Cy Young top tier?

Dan Szymborski: Voters don’t look at FIP.

Comment From Cain Marko
“Book1f*ckyou” contents must be on how bad the Reds are.

Dan Szymborski: Opening it up, it’s actually a log of all Eric Dickerson’s rushing attempts for his career.

Comment From dom
Does Cameron walk around in real life thinking about everything in terms of surplus value?

Dan Szymborski: Everybody does, if not so explicity.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re buying a hot dog, you’re essentially projecting that you are better off with the hot dog and five fewer dollars than not having a hot dog and an extra fiver

Comment From dom
the question wasn’t hating on Passan the question was which player’s WAR would be most out of line with main stream media’s perceptions/valuations

Dan Szymborski: Probably someone like Betts or Kiermaier

Comment From AL East
4 or 5 middling teams?! Hey, that’s us!!!

Comment From dom
what was the rational behind Cuddyer signing?

Dan Szymborski: “We’re insane.”

Comment From Sean
Would ZiPS be better if you re-coded it in MATLAB or something similar (assuming you still setup Excel outputs)? Or is Excel the easiest for you?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is quite complex – recoding it would have the same issues that BP ran into turning Silver’s excel clogs into a program

Dan Szymborski: And here’s the thing – I’m always tinkering, looking for new things or ways to express stuff that I’m not using, and not being a programmer-type that’s difficult for me

Dan Szymborski: I’m comfortable with STATISTICA – I’ve been using it since windows 3.1, but that’s not really the same type of thing

Dan Szymborski: Excel and a whole buttload of plugins and third party tools is what works for me

Comment From Guest
Orville Redenbacher is from Indiana! (As a native hoosier just want to throw out some positive comments out there to balance the hate you’re getting)

Comment From Expat
Hot dogs cost five bucks now??

Dan Szymborski: Well, if you don’t tip like you’re some sort of peasant barbarian.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
I’d totally be interested in helping you recode ZIPS sometime! I’m a stay at home doggy mom with a background at a major tech company for 15 years. (Even if you didn’t use the recoding, if you were willing, I’d be interested in looking at ZIPS and giving it a go. I know, proprietary, blah blah blah, but I know all about NDAs etc.)

Dan Szymborski: You might be pulling out all of your hair very quickly.

Comment From Peasant Barbarian
WHO TIPS FOR HOTDOGS??

Dan Szymborski: Proper people do.

Dan Szymborski: Even when I’m at events at which my food and drink are comped, I’ll always get a soda off-tab at the end so that I can give 20% of what my bill likely would have been.

Dan Szymborski: It’s unfair for bartenders/waiters/waitresses to suffer just because I got something for free.

Comment From Josh
A dodger dog is $6

Dan Szymborski: I was thinking more dirty water dogs.

Comment From Guest
In Indiana we tip 100% on hotdogs.

Dan Szymborski: OK, 1:18, let’s switch over to the Lightning Round before this storm knocks over my house.

Comment From Hugo Z
There’s something about the phrase “buttload of plugins” that bothers me, but I can’t quite…

Comment From Aunt Jessie
I totally endorse tipping in the US, but when you travel, read the tipping section of your lonely planet. I lived in Ireland for 2 years, for example, and for the first year or so I’d leave tips on the counter and when I came back to get the next drink, the money was still sitting there 45 minutes later. Bartenders in Ireland were sort of offended by tips, I learned later.

Dan Szymborski: I know, I’m more careful in foreign countries that don’t have the same tipping etiquette.

Comment From Michael
Wait, what, you can’t tip unless you pay for something yourself? You Americans and your tipping habits are so weird.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually use cash, so I need to get something so I can use my card to tip

Dan Szymborski: OK, Lightning Round Rules: I have to answer everything that is asked, so long as it is off topic and not subject to one of the exceptions (really tasteless, work-related reasons)

Comment From alex
favorite type of dog?

Dan Szymborski: Beef

Comment From Nick
How many houses have you had knocked over.

Dan Szymborski: None.

Comment From Schide
Ya Feelin’ Alright? Not feeling too good myself…

Dan Szymborski: Someone locked the door and took the key.

Comment From Mark
This week’s Tavern Brawl: Great or the Greatest?

Dan Szymborski: Best yet.

Comment From Guest
Just FYI because my company hosts several of those kind of free meal/bev events… they usually charge whatever company is paying a “service charge” and often the purchaser will tip the staff on their own (at least, my company does)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t care what others do, I just know what I do. And if someone gives me good service, my ethics require I give them at least 20%

Comment From Aunt Jessie
(The “correct” tip in Ireland for a waiter at a restaurant was just “round up.” Bartenders were not into even rounding up.)

Comment From alex
HERE’S A TIP: GET A BETTER JOB AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH…..why am I so lonely?

Comment From marc
just finished Arrested Development. Great show. Have any recommendations for a new comedy show on netflix? (watching Parks and Rec now but still need another)

Dan Szymborski: It’s Always Sunny? 30 Rock? Portlandia? Eastbound and Down?

Comment From Schide
Ever get around to playing the FF6 romhack Brave New World?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Dan Szymborski: Should I?

Comment From Michael
No cash? You Americans and your disdain for keeping your personal information private is so weird…

Dan Szymborski: Meh, I’m essentially a public figure anyway. The most embarrassing thing about my spending habits is how much I spend on upscale beer, but I think everybody’s figured that out anyway

Comment From Schide
When’s the last time you went to the zoo?

Dan Szymborski: 5 years ago. Cincinnati Zoo.

Comment From Michael
Explain why World of Xeen is the best CRPG ever.

Dan Szymborski: I actually haven’t played M&M IV or V, thougH I do own them

Comment From Lil Sebastian
Ketchup on your hot dog?

Dan Szymborski: Never.

Dan Szymborski: Kraut. *Or* mustard. *Or* onions and tabasco. *Or* just tabasco. *Or* just chili (not the Cincy style)

Comment From Bill
FWIW, Python is very easy to learn and good for statistical programming. You could probably pick up most of what you needed to do it yourself in ten days.

Dan Szymborski: It probably is, but it’s one of those things I just never get around to doing.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Tipping at a comp’d event is sort of correct/polite in the US if you eat/drink, I concur.

Comment From carl
ever seen a tornado?

Dan Szymborski: Not inperson.

Comment From marc
just got a man cave (small extra bedroom), What are some key things i need? (have tv, beer, seating)

Dan Szymborski: Computers! Memorabilia maybe.

Comment From Maxamuz
Marc, Cheers has 275 episodes of comedy gold.

Comment From dom
Archer (television not Chris)

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Re Arrested Development fan… I liked The Incredible Kimmy Schmidt on netflix. 30 Rock is good too.

Comment From Brad
True Detective Season 2?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t watched.

Comment From Michael
Better Villain: Bud Selig or Wolfgang Schäuble?

Dan Szymborski: Selig. I have no problem with Schäuble

Dan Szymborski: Yes, Greece has very hard terms. Getting a third significant loan from a party that doesn’t trust you at all, that you spent weeks insulting, that you met when you joined a club by lying repeatedly, is going to have some serious terms attached.

Dan Szymborski: The #thisisacoup tag is bullshit. Greece always had the opportunity to walk away if they felt it was a better deal.

Comment From alex
So I stay or should I go now?

Dan Szymborski: If you say that you are mine, I’ll be there till the end of time

Comment From alex
favorite south park episode?

Dan Szymborski: Good Times with Weapons

Comment From Schide
I recommend the FF6 romhack, yes. Fixes a lot of the bugs and balance issues with the gameplay. Kinda has that romhack difficulty problem though, but it’s not too bad.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
any comic-con trailer “leaked” releases that got you excited?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen any – I don’t get excited about trailers

Comment From Aunt Jessie
My normal tip at a comp’d event is like a dollar per item taken though. Dan, just prep for comp’d events as if you were going to a strip club! ;-p

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t been to a strip club since Toronto SABR

Comment From marc
burgers or dogs?

Dan Szymborski: Burgers

Comment From Aunt Jessie
What are your three favorite zoo animals?

Dan Szymborski: Penguin, lion, tiger

Comment From Michael
Did you see the John Oliver HBO segment about public funding for stadiums? Do you agree with him 110%?

Dan Szymborski: I have not, but guessing his opinion, probably 130 or 140%

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Am I weird for thinking that I’d like to be on the hosting end of one of these chats? It’s probably pretty stressful if a lot of Qs come in, eh? (And I’m not Canadian. I’m from the real CA.)

Dan Szymborski: I feel bad that I can’t answer all the questions. I answer like 20%. There are a lot of questions.

Comment From Schide
How great are red pandas

Dan Szymborski: pretty great

Comment From RSG
why have you never in this entire season answered one of my questions. I’m getting a complex.

Dan Szymborski: I have no such grudge against any reader. If I have not answered your question, it may not be one I feel has mass appeal or one that’s too difficult to answer in this kind of format

Comment From Guest
Someone in the (public) restroom stall was just watching a video with the sound on. They’re a freak right, and this is way outside the bounds of common decency? Let me pee in peace please.

Dan Szymborski: You’re supposed to look straight ahead and get your pee finished.

Comment From alex
If you received a million dollars but could only pay in pennies how pissed off would your waiter be when it came time to to pay/tip?

Dan Szymborski: Very. But who is carrying all these pennies aroudn?

Dan Szymborski: Why can’t I go to the bank with them?

Dan Szymborski: Or put them through one of those change machines?

Comment From alex
BYE BYYEEE LIL SEBASTIAN

Dan Szymborski: miss you in the saddest fashion

Comment From Johnny5Alive
i spent $36 for 750mL of a sour red a few weeks ago

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Have you ever had anyone UBER spam you in the lightning round? I apologize for like… mega spamming you. (Ketchup on dogs? Dog no. Mustard and relish and maybe onions or kraut. =p)

Dan Szymborski: People are usually good

Comment From Michael
If you were forced to listen to one of these music styles for a whole day, which would you choose? J-Pop, K-Pop, or Cantopop?

Dan Szymborski: Probably J Pop since playing console RPGs has me kinda used to it

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
Last movie you watched

Dan Szymborski: In Secret. Which was really awful. It completely butchered the Zola

Dan Szymborski: Without the whole section at the end in which Thérèse and Laurent descend into paranoia and eventually plan to kill each other, it’s completely pointless

Dan Szymborski: It’s like Lord of the Rings without them putting the ring in Mt. Doom

Dan Szymborski: Like after the Fellowship broke up, the screen just went to black and white text set “Frodo destroyed the ring. Then he went over the sea in some kind of death symbolism thingy. “

Comment From Captain Kirk
Do you think Gouverneur Warren will ever be given the credit he deserves for the North’s vitory?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not at this point – all the legends are firmly entrenched now.

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
what should i get for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Sandwich

Comment From Jim
Have you seen Lucha Underground?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
Think Leto can pull off the Joker? hearing good things…

Dan Szymborski: I think he can.

Comment From alex
Kimmy Schmidt: Pinot Nooooooooir

Comment From Aunt Jessie
I would be willing to give recoding ZIPS in python a go under an NDA. I am in limbo between jobs while I help my mom recover from 3 years of reconstructive foot/knee surgery, and need to reup my skills before I reapply to work this winter after my mom’s last surgery… Um, I guess I’ll email you that.

Comment From Michael
if you have no problem with schäuble you need to read http://www.newstatesman.com…

Dan Szymborski: I have read that before. Varoufakis did more to screw up negotiations than even Tsipras did – I’m not taking his view of things.

Dan Szymborski: Schäuble had good reason to be extremely skeptical.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
The messed up thing about Greece is this was happening like SIX YEARS AGO when I was still living in Ireland, when the whole recession thing happened after 2008.

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
Bernie Sanders, can he give Hillary a run for her money?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Guest
Who are you voting for in the Rep. primary for 2016? YOU HAVE TO ANSWER

Dan Szymborski: Depends if I’m still registered as a Republican then – I tend to change my registration depending on the status of future nominating contests.

Dan Szymborski: I tend to vote for split government and gridlock.

Dan Szymborski: It really depends on what the climate looks like in a few months, whether I need to vote for Clinton or if I need to vote for the best Trump alternative (these in the event that Sanders or Trump remain plausible)

Comment From Maxamuz

Just a bit outside?

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
last concert you went to?

Dan Szymborski: Decemberists in May

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
Italy or France?

Dan Szymborski: France

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
first job ever?

Dan Szymborski: When I was 16, I worked for a housewares/hardware store in Towson called Stebbins-Anderson.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t do much work – I was the only part-timer that could operate Unix and shut down the store, so they didn’t care what I did generally because it kept a full-timer from having to stay on until 9 PM to do closing

Comment From alex
Because that was the only way you get that million dollars. NOTHING IN LIFE IS FREE DAN

Comment From alex
You may hire someone to carry around the pennies though, I’ll allow it.

Comment From dom
when do u next cat

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Comment From Christian
Game with most hours played in your Steam library

Dan Szymborski: Team Fortress 2.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
(Don’t respond to this. I apologize for sorta spamming you. I’m halfway around the world at the moment and I’d been drinking and I’m using the hostel’s computer, so … sorry for a few more questions than normal. Still serious about recoding ZIPS since I’m literally doing nothing with my life at the moment. I’ll mail you. And I’ll sign NDAs as you need.)

Comment From Curious
If you could have an infinite tap of some beverage installed in your house, what would you pick? (besides water)

Dan Szymborski: Coke. Simply because I drink a billion different beers but really only 1 soda, so it makes the most sense.

Comment From Aunt Jessie
Otters, Red Pandas, uh… whatever Monkey is being cute. And a bubble is a Komodo Dragon if they have one. (I’m in Socal, and the SD Zoo’s dragon seems to look right through my brain every time I go.)

Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
side note, definitely think Affleck will be ok as Batman

Comment From Michael
favorite stanley kubrick movie?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not very creative pick, but clockwork orange

Comment From Jim
Lucha Underground has a lot of content already but what I’ve seen is worth your time. The arena set up and universe are really unique, and it plays out more like a Fight Club TV show than an episode of Raw.

Dan Szymborski: OK, caught up with all the off-topics. Thus ends the Lightning Round.

Dan Szymborski: I am amazed I still have electricity and internet.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections and FanGraphs, and @DSzymborski on Twitter.

Comment From jocephus
did you ever drink clearly canadian?

Dan Szymborski: I did.

Dan Szymborski: I liked the cherry one.

Dan Szymborski: Also ZimSmash on Twitch, but I don’t have as much time to stream during the baseball season.

Dan Szymborski: See you all next week!

Dan Szymborski: Unless I like die or something, which is always a statistical possibility