Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/12/13
| 11:58 |
: For your mild amusement, here is the Satrap of Snark, the Plenipotentiary of Persiflage, the Mesomedes of Metaphors, and the Dan Szymborski of Self-Delusion: Dan Szymborski!
|
| 11:58 |
Universal DH – yay or nay? |
| 11:59 |
: I’m that rare person that doesn’t have a strong opinion. I grew up watching both AL and NL games, and I’m not violently for or against the DH like 99% of other people.
|
| 12:00 |
: But purely on a “does it make sense?” standpoint, with interleague play every day, it makes sense to have a universal DH, given that the scattershot nature of needing a DH prevents NL teams from stashing fill-ins at AAA for the set, planned DH run
|
| 12:00 |
If you could make one change to MLB, what would it be? |
| 12:00 |
: Change the revenue sharing so that 1% goes to Dan Szymborski
|
| 12:00 |
Want to just email me those GAR rankings? I’ll sign a nondisclosure agreement! |
| 12:00 |
: Tom’s Plan: Get there super-quickly so that Dan can’t not pick your Qs!
|
| 12:01 |
: I haven’t done more with them, simply because I have them on the backburner while the season’s going on. It’s something I probably won’t get back to until after the playoffs.
|
| 12:01 |
have you considered making a professional wrestling version of zips? |
| 12:01 |
: Not quite as much fun, given that it would essentially be a WWE/TNA Writer projection system.
|
| 12:02 |
Sonny Gray’s curveball is a majestic unicorn that will explode your brain if you look at it directly in the eyes. |
| 12:02 |
Deep league and I could use speed and OBP… can Jordan Schafer get enough PT to help me? |
| 12:03 |
: Probably not.
|
| 12:03 |
: He was never really getting a ton of playing time before the injury, after all
|
| 12:04 |
: and he’s been out for like a month and a half. Plus, you probably already ahve the best Schafer production in the bag already
|
| 12:04 |
Is there a good way to analyze pitch f/x data to determine whether the pitcher intentionally threw at the batter? |
| 12:04 |
: I’m not sure you can really track intention
|
| 12:04 |
: You need soul f/x for that.
|
| 12:05 |
Going to get a chance to see the dan bejar solo tour? |
| 12:05 |
: depends where he goes. ahven’t looked
|
| 12:05 |
O’s at C position this year – .276 OBP, at 2B – .275 OBP, at DH .273 OBP. Markakis has zero power. The pitching has been subpar. How are they 13 over .500 with 3 automatic outs all season and a below average staff? |
| 12:06 |
:
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| 12:06 |
What does a Colby Rasmus extension look like? 4/55 with a 15 team option? |
| 12:06 |
: That’s the kind of thing I can give a better answer to over twitter
|
| 12:06 |
Can we get some Jose Abreu MLE’s pretty please? 🙂 |
| 12:06 |
: Yeah, but I have to answer other questions in the meantime
|
| 12:07 |
: Or maybe not, I thought I had his cuban stats handy
|
| 12:07 |
Sonny Gray’s curveball or a giant slab of apple pie? |
| 12:07 |
: Gray doesn’t lead to obesity
|
| 12:07 |
How long before the Royals sign me to play 2B? |
| 12:07 |
: I thought you were named Chris Getz?
|
| 12:07 |
Is Mike O’Neill the next Cardinal to come up and outproduce his talent, a la Craig, M. Carpenter, David Freese, etc? I’ve never seen a guy with his skill set before. |
| 12:08 |
: I really worry about the walk machine guys in the minors
|
| 12:08 |
: But obviously he’s earned a shot
|
| 12:08 |
who are your ten playoff teams? how do the playoffs shake out? |
| 12:09 |
: BOS, DET, TEX (OAK v. TB), ATL, STL, LA (CIN v. PIT)
|
| 12:09 |
: at this minute, I’m thinking a Detroit vs. Braves or Cards series
|
| 12:09 |
Universal DH? Why do I never hear of universal pitchers-hitting-for-themselves? Not that I care either way, just curious. |
| 12:10 |
: It’s less popular and removes some older popular sluggers like David Ortiz from the mix
|
| 12:10 |
: And the NL and the low minors when 2 NL teams are playing are the last places on earth not to use a DH
|
| 12:10 |
Am I in an alternate universe? It looks like Dan Haren has been pretty fantastic for the last 6 weeks or so. That is all. |
| 12:11 |
: It’s about time. I thought it was a good signing, but it was looking pretty fugly until his current run
|
| 12:11 |
With 180 innings, what kind of pitcher is Alex Wood? Could you see him reaching 180 innings? |
| 12:12 |
: He’s a lot of fun, he knows what he’s doing with his pitches
|
| 12:13 |
: I still think, however, his future is as a reliever
|
| 12:13 |
David Lough + Justin Maxwell = Royals aren’t so stupid after all? |
| 12:14 |
Do you see Ludwick making a big contribution to Reds? |
| 12:14 |
: wait, where did my ansewr go?
|
| 12:14 |
: They still have an uphill climb. It’s not just the games behind, but how many guys you have to leapfrog
|
| 12:14 |
: There it is. Out of order. WTF?
|
| 12:15 |
: On Ludwick, I think they’re expecting too much of him.
|
| 12:15 |
: He had that huge run last year, but he’s not really a 130 OPS+ guy
|
| 12:15 |
To follow up on the Lough/Maxwell platoon… Can you run ZiPS to output what a player would do against only opposite-handed pitchers? |
| 12:16 |
: I don’t have it set up to do that explicitly without a little extra work.
|
| 12:16 |
: But even in straight platoons, players do end up seeing some of the wrong pitchers as well
|
| 12:17 |
What do you see from Pujols in the future? Will he get healthier and bounce back to near 2011 levels or is 2012/2013 the real Pujols? |
| 12:17 |
: I think he’ll bounce back a bit.
|
| 12:17 |
: He still has some highlights left, but they won’t be St. Louis-type highlight seasons
|
| 12:17 |
: At the time, I described it in the sense of the Cardinals get the Beatles while the Angels get the solo stuff. Now, there’s been a lot of Ringo, but there’s some George Harrison stuff left in him
|
| 12:17 |
Eno has his beer thing. What -graphs spinoff would you like to do in the future? |
| 12:18 |
: DanGraphs – graphing the sheer derangement of Dan’s mind.
|
| 12:18 |
According to coolstandings, the NL playoffs look pretty well settled. But the Orioles are looming around 50%, trying to crack the wild card party. What do you think the chances are that two (or more) teams tie for the second wild card spot in the AL? |
| 12:18 |
: 10-20%? That’s the kind of thing that I’d like ZiPS to answer as that kind of thing’s hard to calculate in your head
|
| 12:19 |
Turn around in store for Sabathia? |
| 12:20 |
: To a degree – I think he’s more likely to be a durable #2 guy through the rest of his career than an ace any more
|
| 12:20 |
I was pretty high on Cody Allen and his chances of stealing the Cleveland closer position. Now after a month of sporadic implosions I’m not quite so sure. How do you see the Indians bullpen situation for the next couple of years? |
| 12:20 |
: Actually, I think your first inclination was correct. He’s the guy they have up there who has the best tools to be a closer long-term
|
| 12:21 |
: He was drafted just two years ago – you can’t expect him not to have a rough patch here and there
|
| 12:22 |
: I think he has more upside than Bryan Shaw does, more likely to be a dominating reliever long-term
|
| 12:22 |
: Or as long-term as relievers are.
|
| 12:23 |
: Outside of the few elites, closers have shorter shelf-life than mayonnaise the dollar store marks down to 50 cents
|
| 12:23 |
what do you think of JA Happ? any hope for him or destined for DFA? |
| 12:23 |
: He’s 5th starter material.
|
| 12:23 |
DH should be universal, and I’m an NL fan through and through. I hate watching pitchers try to hit. It’s boring, it kills rallies, they are terrible hitters, and they don’t deserve to get 2-3 at-bats a game. Give those at-bats to a competent, qualified major league hitter, and don’t risk injury to a pitcher by making them swing and run. |
| 12:23 |
Does offseason Zips put any stock into how a player finished a season, or are all accrued stats the same? |
| 12:23 |
: I haven’t found much value in the month distribution.
|
| 12:24 |
What do you make of Wade Miley? |
| 12:24 |
: He is what he is. A solid mid-rotation guy, but he’s probably already hit his ceiling
|
| 12:24 |
Wieters extension with Baltimore? Or is he a goner? What could he get on the open market? |
| 12:25 |
: Now’s a good time to try to get an extension as he’s had a pretty disappointing season
|
| 12:25 |
Brian Roberts is really just an expensive team chaplain at this point, right? |
| 12:26 |
: Pretty much. I guess the O’s get credit for their loyalty in giving him chances every time he’s healthy, but there’s no reason to include him in any kind of plan
|
| 12:26 |
Would you ever consider ZIPS for collegiate players? |
| 12:26 |
: I’d consider just about anything that’s useful.
|
| 12:27 |
: Don’t know how super-useful it would be to me, though. I know that sounds terrible, but I’m a practical guy
|
| 12:28 |
: I’m a working writer, after all, not so much a working sabermetrician. Tools that aid me in writing interesting, intellectually honest stories, are tools that i’m more likely to develop
|
| 12:28 |
: Again, I’m not sure how to say that without coming across as douchey.
|
| 12:29 |
was a hell of a battle. |
| 12:29 |
Are you planning on getting Batman: Arkham Origins? |
| 12:29 |
: Probably
|
| 12:29 |
will anyone pick newly dfa’d outfielder delmon? |
| 12:29 |
: He’ll end up with a AAA job in the end.
|
| 12:29 |
Dodgers are 67-50 with 45 games left. Is a 95-win season in play? |
| 12:30 |
: 28-17 is certainly possible.
|
| 12:30 |
: Probalby a few wins less.
|
| 12:30 |
Is it possible Jeff Francoeur has the best arm in the history of baseball? |
| 12:30 |
: Of players that I’ve actually seen, it’s still Barfield
|
| 12:31 |
: and I’m sure Clemente and Kaline fans will get ya
|
| 12:31 |
Braves or Cards from the NL? What separates them from the Dodgers in your opinion? |
| 12:31 |
: I think they’re deeper teams overall. But again, all this is very clsoe. Liking a division winner over another division winner is like saying you like a team to be 13.5% instead of 12.5% or somethign
|
| 12:32 |
Do the FG’s fielding and baserunning WAR stats update only cone a week, on Sunday nights? |
| 12:32 |
: Literally have no idea. I’m just about the worst person to ask this kind of thing.
|
| 12:33 |
I ate the answer. I ate the whole fucking thing. In one sitting. |
| 12:33 |
: Ah, the side benefits of trying to answer as many questions as I can – I inevitably end up 20 minutes behind and am completely confued by comments referring to answers
|
| 12:33 |
How many buds pure would you offer for Jose Abreu? |
| 12:34 |
: I’m always a sucker for TF2 questions. Probably a million buds, given that I think they’re about $30 right now.
|
| 12:34 |
: For those unaware, it’s a true story – virtual Ipod buds in a first-person shooter fetch more money than *actual* ipod buds that you can physically own and use in the universe
|
| 12:35 |
How bleak has Kyle Gibson’s outlook become? |
| 12:35 |
: I woudln’t say bleak, but he hasn’t looked that great in the majors. Ignoring the stats for now, it looks like he’s just going out there and chucking the ball
|
| 12:35 |
If you’re Arte Moreno, would you be presenting Trout’s agent with a 10/$300 contract offer, ASAP? |
| 12:35 |
: Yes.
|
| 12:36 |
When Maholm comes back, its going to be Minor-Teheran-Maholm-Beachy-Medlen with Wood getting bumped to the bullpen, right? But should it be? |
| 12:36 |
: Honestly, I still think Wood’s a better fit for the pen
|
| 12:36 |
Gyorko turn it around this season? Starting with trip to Coors? |
| 12:37 |
: I still like Gyorko, I think he’ll be fine
|
| 12:37 |
BasementSexDungeonGraphs |
| 12:37 |
If, for example, the save rule was changed so you only got a save with a 2 run lead rather than 3 do you think managers would still bring in their “closer” up 3 in the 9th? |
| 12:38 |
: No, because using closers has become more and more based on whether something is a save rather than something being a good idea
|
| 12:39 |
What is wrong with Pablo Sandoval? Why is he so awful all of a sudden? He has a.whopping .279 wOBA. Odd for a guy that makes a ton of contact |
| 12:39 |
: Honestly not sure. He looked a few weeks ago as if he was getting back in track.
|
| 12:40 |
: My gut tells me that his foot is still giving him problems
|
| 12:40 |
: Or there’s something else.
|
| 12:40 |
Expectations for me ROS? Will I be as good as a cobb salad or as bad as Cobb the movie? |
| 12:40 |
: I actually liked Cobb the movie
|
| 12:41 |
: and I’m not big on cobb salad – i prefer field greens to various lettuci.
|
| 12:41 |
: I’m still bullish though.
|
| 12:41 |
The giants have been playing Jeff Francoeur in center field. Good god |
| 12:42 |
: Well, at least it shows some realization that he can’t hit well enough to play a corner…
|
| 12:42 |
Besides Stanton and CarGo, what good, young players might be available in a trade this offseason? |
| 12:42 |
: Stanton’s really the most likely to be available.
|
| 12:42 |
: Teams don’t like giving up good, young players after all.
|
| 12:43 |
Mets 1B of the future, Ike or Wilmer? Do you fear the mullet? |
| 12:44 |
: I still think they give Ike Davis a last chance to forget his 2012 season
|
| 12:45 |
: I don’t think the Mets would experiment so much wih FLores at 2B at AAA if they were ready to just stuff him at 1B in 2014
|
| 12:45 |
Best 1-2-3 SP punch in the majors right now? |
| 12:45 |
: Correia-Pelfrey-Diamond
|
| 12:46 |
: Yeah, some might say that Verlander-Scherzer-Sanchez is scarier, but they only help 1 team
|
| 12:46 |
: CoPD helps 29 teams
|
| 12:46 |
ROS: Ethier or Ludwick |
| 12:46 |
: Oh, ludwick
|
| 12:46 |
Would a high career BABIP be a good sign that the hitter has an elite hit tool? |
| 12:47 |
: It depends how long the career is.
|
| 12:47 |
: When you’re talking about an up-and-comer, you should never get excited about BABIP, because you’re dealing with too short a history to be sure of it
|
| 12:47 |
What kind of numbers do you see Danny Salazar putting up for the ROS? |
| 12:47 |
: I think he may be a real 105 ERA+ guy right now
|
| 12:48 |
the shark has really been struggling lately. Any concern or just a bad stretch? |
| 12:48 |
: I’m not worried yet. Except, of course, that worry that always exists that a pitcher has a secret surprise lurking in his shoulder parts
|
| 12:48 |
Who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Jason Heyward or Upton? |
| 12:49 |
: Heyward
|
| 12:49 |
IS it just me or does AROD look better at the plate than has in two or three years? Also, I am rooting him to go on a monster 2 month run just to piss everyone off. |
| 12:49 |
: I didn’t think he looked all that *great* but he at least seemed like he was playing with less injuries nagging him
|
| 12:49 |
: I’m kinda rooting for that too. Baseball’s heavy-handed nature has made me root for him.
|
| 12:51 |
: If I run baseball, when I hear news of Biogenesis, I simply write a press release with someting to the effect of “Baseball has the most stringent drug-testing in sports and as new information comes forward, we’ll strive to be at the forefront at modifying the Joint Drug Agreement to include new drugs and methods that game thte system.”
|
| 12:51 |
: And then never talk about biogenesis again
|
| 12:51 |
If all 42 of my home runs were strikeouts, I would be slugging 16 points higher than Jamey Carroll. |
| 12:52 |
Do you think Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus will buy a timeshare together in the Maldives? |
| 12:52 |
: Do you know what I would pay to see? A show involving Selig and A-Rod buying a timeshare together, that they’re forced to live in without leaving the house for 3 months
|
| 12:53 |
: And it wouldn’t be somewhere cool, it would be in some shack in rural alabama or next to a landfill in jersey
|
| 12:53 |
Now that Nate Silver is part of ESPN, is there truth the rumor of him stealing Zips for elections? |
| 12:53 |
: Wait, what? I’m not sure I get the question or the joke
|
| 12:54 |
Who gets more PA’s next season: Delmon or Francoeur? |
| 12:54 |
: Frenchy
|
| 12:54 |
: They both suck, but Frenchy has the benefit of not slugging tourists
|
| 12:54 |
: For all his suckitude, at least Francoeur has the reputation of being a good guy, which goes a long way for a fringe player
|
| 12:54 |
O/U 4 years before Gabe Kapler is either a manager or GM? |
| 12:55 |
: Hard to fast-track a GM spot, but he’s shown that he’s thoughtful and that’ll get him some interesting job choices
|
| 12:55 |
DH is inevitable. Just do it already. |
| 12:55 |
Not that it’s a competition, but who do you think has the most viewers in their respective chat? DC? Jeff? |
| 12:55 |
: I really have no idea, but I imagine Cammy would have the highest ratings
|
| 12:55 |
: He’s the face of FanGraphs, after all
|
| 12:55 |
Would it be more fair to accuse Pujols of being older than 33? It actually seems likely. |
| 12:56 |
: It would be less dickish, but I’d hardly describe it as more fair.
|
| 12:56 |
: I only know what I can prove.
|
| 12:56 |
Has Trout moved ahead of Harper, Machado, and Puig when we mention young talent in the game? |
| 12:57 |
: Already did. No knock on the others, but Trout is ZYXLEFABRISTIC
|
| 12:57 |
: In other words, so awesome, that a word describing him does not exist and there’s no reference in human history that makes derivation of such a word describing him possible
|
| 12:57 |
If you can only look at one offensive number for a player, what do you use? wOBA? wRC+? Something else? |
| 12:58 |
: I’m going to get in trouble, but OPS+ is still a handy number and it’s been around a long time, so your audience will be better acclimated to it
|
| 12:58 |
What more likely for 2014: Miggy hitting .250, or Dunn hitting .290? |
| 12:58 |
: The former. Miggy’s more likely to have an injury than Dunn is to discover some magical uninjury
|
| 12:58 |
why not have an 8 batter order? |
| 12:58 |
: Kinda ruins the whole multiple of 3s thing baseball has going
|
| 12:59 |
Has strasburg actually become underrated at this point? Its not like he’s bad (3.09 FIP, 84 xFIP-) |
| 12:59 |
: Possibly – you don’t hear him talked about quite as much.
|
| 12:59 |
Thoughts on the Jack Clark/Albert Pujols rigmarole? |
| 12:59 |
: Very disappointed in Clark.
|
| 12:59 |
Do you see Cargo or David Wright back before the season is over? |
| 1:00 |
: I think Wright’s season is over, but I expect Gonzalez to be just healthy enough that the Rockies bring him back
|
| 1:00 |
: Though if I had any say in it — I don’t obviously — CarGo’s season would be over now
|
| 1:00 |
: Rockies are done for ’13 – I do not want him testing that finger
|
| 1:00 |
Dan, why don’t batting runs, base running runs, fielding runs, positional runs, and replacement runs add up to runs above replacement? |
| 1:01 |
: It depends on which site you’re using. For instance, BR’s tinkered a bit in recent years with what adjustments go where
|
| 1:01 |
RE: buds. It could have as much to do with how shitty real ipod earbuds sounds and fit as it does the silliness of TF2. But probably not, actually. |
| 1:01 |
: I wear big headphones
|
| 1:02 |
: I can’t wear any kind of buds, I have these really small ear canals for some reason
|
| 1:02 |
So you’re saying the Pirates’ collapse has officially started and the Cards are going to win the division? |
| 1:02 |
: I don’t think there’s any collapse, but I think the Cards are a significantly better team.
|
| 1:02 |
If Trout gets offered 10/300, does he accept? |
| 1:02 |
: Hard to tell. I don’t know how risk-averse he is
|
| 1:02 |
: I’d do it if I were him.
|
| 1:02 |
Wood’s a better fit for the pen based on… |
| 1:03 |
: It’s improved, but I don’t think his loopy breaking stuff is really all that effective long-term
|
| 1:04 |
: that kunckle curvey thing isn’t Mussina-esque by a long shot
|
| 1:04 |
: now, if it keeps improving, maybe it’s a different story
|
| 1:04 |
What’s up with Bruce Chen? He’s looked great. |
| 1:05 |
: He’s always had that occasional run.
|
| 1:05 |
: His command has to be really on for him to be dominating – if it gets slightly off, he gets hit hard
|
| 1:05 |
Who would be a realistic option for the Indians to add to the front of the rotation next season? via FA or trade |
| 1:06 |
: Unfortunately, the FA market isn’t looking pretty
|
| 1:06 |
: either wait a year for Shields or hope Amaro sees reason with Lee. Otherwise, the best way to add a front of the rotation guy is to develop your own
|
| 1:06 |
Did the Giants pick up Delmon yet to pair with Frenchy? |
| 1:06 |
: That’s just mean.
|
| 1:07 |
I dropped Beachy and now feel stupid. He’ll still struggle with his command this year, right? |
| 1:07 |
: He’s looked better than I thought he would since comiong back. Even against the Rockies when they got a billion hits, he still looked better than that
|
| 1:08 |
: He was a bit up and down in the minors, so I don’t expect him to really be on track until he gets tos tart fresh in 2014
|
| 1:08 |
Sox rotation starting to unravel. Lackey’s starting to lose his stuff, Dempster is hurt, Lester is retooling, where’s Waldo, er , Buchholz? Farrell pulling starters earlier, and the pen has to run on the PAW shuttle to keep live arms available. Do you project they can hold on with the latest performances or is it a blip? |
| 1:08 |
: The rotation’s just been bad in August.
|
| 1:09 |
: I think he’s going to have to keep trying to hold it together with glue and duct tape.
|
| 1:09 |
: As there really hasn’t been anybody who hasn’t come without questions.
|
| 1:09 |
: The only silver lining is the bullpen’s been better in the second half too
|
| 1:09 |
As much press as he gets I feel like a lot of fans and analysts don’t really appreciate how awesome Miguel Cabrera has been. His 208 wRC+ is 24 points higher than Albert Pujols best season (184) |
| 1:09 |
: It’s hard to appreciate a terrific player when they’re terrific so much
|
| 1:10 |
Do you think the Indians try to keep Kazmir around next year, considering the glut of mid to back-end starters that they already have? (Carrasco, Kluber, McAllister, Bauer, Salazar) |
| 1:10 |
: I think they will. He’s really looked sharp here and there and the market doesn’t look that great
|
| 1:10 |
Should Francouer try to be a RP? |
| 1:11 |
: Why not? I’ve actually advocated that someone try to sign Frenchy to be a AAA pitcher
|
| 1:11 |
: I think if you can get the player to go along with it, practically every failed position player with a strong arm should at least be tried on the mound
|
| 1:11 |
Have you ever gone outside in jorts? |
| 1:11 |
: I’ve actually never won jean shorts
|
| 1:11 |
: I have the world’s largest collection of old navy cargo shorts
|
| 1:12 |
Dee Gordon – in need of a change of scenery or just a career pinch runner/BU util? |
| 1:12 |
: Just not that good.
|
| 1:12 |
MLB The Show has terrible CPU GMs. My Road to the Show shortstop is an awesome major league 20 year old who should bat second, but no, 56 rating Mike Fontenot is there with his .175/.220/.230 slash line. He’s worse than the 2B in AA. WHY????? |
| 1:12 |
: The CPU GMs tend to look at the skills more than the stats
|
| 1:12 |
: and doesn’t always want to start the FA clock
|
| 1:12 |
: AI is hard
|
| 1:13 |
: One thing we’re still missing is that AI revolution. It’s all mostly still brute force
|
| 1:13 |
Would the Macho Man’s diving elbow have been as devastating if he had remained a catcher? |
| 1:13 |
: I’m not sure it’s the most useful move for a catcher
|
| 1:14 |
: Squatting behind the plate, you’re better off with some kind of leg-related submission
|
| 1:14 |
Ignoring that this could stunt his overall development, would the Indians benefit from bringing up Lindor and putting him at SS and batting him low in the order? His defense should be far better than Asdrubal, and his bat can’t be much worse. |
| 1:15 |
: The Carthaginian has been off again lately, but I think you’re underrating him a little still
|
| 1:15 |
Chances Chris Johnson is the best line drive hitter in the history of baseball? |
| 1:16 |
: If he is the best line drive hitter in history, that’s a sign that his existence is within a false vacuum and the braves have to be very careful not to destroy it
|
| 1:16 |
Jose Abreu through 2011 http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ABREUcubaJ01.shtml |
| 1:16 |
If someone like Cliff Lee hits you, it was probably intentional. |
| 1:16 |
Abreu including ’12 and ’13 http://cuban-play.com/estadisticas/labor-de-por-vida-en-series-nacionales/jose-dariel-abreu-correa |
| 1:16 |
Conversely to Mr. UncleKruncle, how many PA’s (or other data) is needed to conclude that a pitcher can sustain a low BABIP? Understand that he’s a rare cat, Kershaw seems to be able to do it. How much is defense-centered? |
| 1:17 |
: Without any team information, the break even point at which the player’s actual BABIP becomes as predictive as league average is at roughly 3000 PA.
|
| 1:17 |
: For BABIP above team, somewhere in the 2200-2500 TBF range
|
| 1:17 |
are you seeing dan straily’s mustache right now? its probably a 20. or an 80. its polarizing |
| 1:18 |
: All mustache growth should start in the offseason. You either have tos tart the season with a badass mustache or wait until next year
|
| 1:18 |
: If I were a player, I would use a sharpie and draw in the mustache of an opposing pitcher on my face every game in the most mocking way possible.
|
| 1:18 |
: OK, let’s call this the lightening round, where one can get enlightenment on any random question.
|
| 1:19 |
Brett Lawrie: Actually good baseball player again? |
| 1:19 |
: I think he’s actually healthy
|
| 1:19 |
: The Jays didn’t go crazy trying to rush himback
|
| 1:19 |
Which is worse news for a pitcher? Bullet to the kidney or capsule tear? |
| 1:19 |
: Probably the capsule tear. Now, the second lost kidney is pretty bad
|
| 1:19 |
Totally unique interesting that only I’m asking right now: Puig or Myers? |
| 1:19 |
: I think Puig has higher upside, but Myers safer
|
| 1:19 |
I have learned from this chat that video games lead to math skills and basement sex dungeons. |
| 1:20 |
Which classic WWF heel’s persona should A-Rod adopt? I say Ted DiBiase. |
| 1:20 |
: That would be awesome, though I don’t think A-Rod has the self-awareness to pull it off well
|
| 1:20 |
: Seriously, he should go full-on heel. *Embrace* the hatred. Let it power him
|
| 1:20 |
: Audience boos? Move your hands up in the air to beckon for you.
|
| 1:21 |
: Audience chants steroids at you afte ryou hit a home run? Mime an injection into your biceps and point to the scoreboard
|
| 1:21 |
: If you can’t not be the bad guy, play the bad guy
|
| 1:21 |
Why don;t they sell apple pie at baseball games? If I was in the marketing department at chevrolet, I would sponsor apple pie stands in every ball park. |
| 1:22 |
: You’d have to transform it into a self contained apple pie hot pocket thing, like mcdonald’s apple pie
|
| 1:22 |
: Actual slices of apple pie would be a little unwiledy
|
| 1:22 |
: Salty seems to beat sweet in MLB concessions
|
| 1:22 |
Do you know if FG MiLB are park adjusted? |
| 1:23 |
: Unless I missed something, they shouldn’t be
|
| 1:23 |
Where do you see Brian McCann landing next season? Seems like 4-1 against the Braves resigning him, but as Gattismania has cooled they have to be at least contemplating a serious run at him. |
| 1:23 |
: I think the Braves will try to bring him back, but won’t go into a bidding war
|
| 1:23 |
: I can see him ending up a yankee
|
| 1:24 |
Just because everyone else does it, that doesn’t make it right. The NL is just about the only league in the world playing actual baseball. Nine players both field and hit. It’s simple. |
| 1:24 |
: I’m just arguing practicality
|
| 1:24 |
Pujols is over 33, and he has been since the moment after he turned 33. |
| 1:24 |
Do you think MLB leaked Biogenesis and is using the media to crucify A-Rod to show even the best can’t escape Selig’s wrath and MLB is serious on PEDs |
| 1:25 |
: Again, I only know what I can prove, but I wouldn’t be shocked. MLB has a long history of being short-sighted, with commissioners believing they’re some kind of avenging philosopher-kings.
|
| 1:25 |
ROS: Trout or Achilles? |
| 1:25 |
: Achilles would be really old.
|
| 1:25 |
: Plus, those heel injuries can be a bitch. Bothered McGwire for years mid-career
|
| 1:25 |
Poor, fragile pitchers. It’s so dangerous to hit. We must protect them. Actually, hitting is so dangerous, we should just get robots to do it. Why risk a great fielding shortstop? He could get hurt running the bases! |
| 1:26 |
: Pitchers *are* fragile! Between innings of pitching, I’d encase them in styrofoam with tubes for food, air, and expelling waste.
|
| 1:26 |
Higher end of season WAR: Heyward or Freeman? |
| 1:27 |
: Freeman
|
| 1:27 |
I’m using FanGraphs’. For example. A-Rod 2012. The components add up to 17 runs. He’s credited with 18.7 RAR |
| 1:28 |
: I’d have to look at it.
|
| 1:28 |
: I don’t really utilize those components myself, so I haven’t come across the issue
|
| 1:28 |
Available front end pitching for next season pretty much appears to be David Price or bust, right? Maybe Samardzija, if he rebounds in the last month and a half of the season? |
| 1:28 |
: I don’t think the Shark is moving and Price would be very expensive for the Indians
|
| 1:29 |
: Rays will trade their guys, but they’re not giving you any steals
|
| 1:29 |
Got a good fake word to describe Miguel Cabrera’s skills with the bat? |
| 1:29 |
: Flabamajazz
|
| 1:29 |
If Francoeur made it as a pitcher he would the inverse Ankiel. A Liekna if you will, though that certainly sounds awful, so I wouldn’t. |
| 1:29 |
Don’t wear cargo shorts. They make you look like a 14 year old. |
| 1:29 |
: I like having pockets
|
| 1:30 |
: I look too dissipated to be 14
|
| 1:30 |
: Though I did have trouble buying alcohol a few months ago at a grocery store
|
| 1:30 |
If we’re going to talk about MLB: The Show, I’m more upset that the game has a player’s skills deteriorating if they’re at or above the age of 35. Mariano Rivera is still a great closer, stop dropping his overall rating below 80! |
| 1:30 |
“The CPU GMs tend to look at the skills more than the stats” I think they look at age first. Donnie Murphy is the AAA 2B and is rated over 20 points better and is killing AAA. No reason they shouldn’t be using him. Stupid video games. |
| 1:30 |
A-Rod. That black-bearded Hulk Hogan thing… |
| 1:30 |
But what about double switches?!? WON”T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE DOUBLE-SWITCHES?!? |
| 1:31 |
You are now the Palpatine to A-Rod’s Luke. And that metaphor makes me uncomfortable. |
| 1:31 |
: Plus, I’m 3 years younger than A-Rod?
|
| 1:31 |
: That should be an exclamation.
|
| 1:31 |
: Though if I impregnated a woman at age -3, that would make me the world’s biggest player, I assume
|
| 1:31 |
Can people please tone down the resentment towards the Dodgers? They’ve been mediocre-to-terrible for 20 years, up to and including the first half of this season. Can we fans please just enjoy the run without hearing how horrible our team is for having a high payroll? |
| 1:32 |
If you can get a pizza at a game, you can get a pie |
| 1:32 |
: I don’t generally like ballpark pizza
|
| 1:32 |
A-Rod should embrace his inner Randy Orton and come to the plate wearing only a speedo. |
| 1:32 |
“Salty seems to beat sweet in MLB concessions” because beer. |
| 1:32 |
: Yeah. Beer is the breadmaker
|
| 1:32 |
: People eating apple pie probably want a glass of milk rather than beer.
|
| 1:32 |
: (though I always want to have beer)
|
| 1:33 |
You don’t think shoving tubes up pitchers’ butts every inning could lead to injury? |
| 1:33 |
: I think it’s a question of lubrication. MLB can pay for good medical professionals.
|
| 1:33 |
I see some problems with styrofoam encased pitchers. Claustrophobia comes to mind. |
| 1:33 |
: Then only do it between games rather than innings, through use of medically induced comas
|
| 1:34 |
: I can’t be responsible for thinking ov everything!
|
| 1:34 |
Nothing wrong with delicious fried pie pockets. |
| 1:34 |
This woman at my work wants to hook up. Good idea? Bad idea? If we didn’t work together it’d be a total go no questions |
| 1:34 |
: Depends on the Hotness-to-Job Importance Ratio
|
| 1:34 |
Trouble buying alcohol? You forgot your fake id? |
| 1:35 |
: When I’m clean shaven and really need a haircut, I look really young
|
| 1:35 |
: It doesn’t help that my voice isn’t that deep.
|
| 1:36 |
: My voice doesn’t sound like a 35-year-old, more like I’m in my late teens.
|
| 1:36 |
: The guys around here that I play TF2 with can vouch for that, or you can check out one of my radio appearances/ESPN AV things
|
| 1:36 |
Hotness 7. Job importance 3. So 7/3? |
| 1:36 |
: At least a 2:1 ratio, I think, to venture
|
| 1:37 |
Seriously, cargo shorts are the worst. Regular shorts are also pretty bad but I don’ t know where you live. Adults wear pants. |
| 1:37 |
: I’m not really an adult
|
| 1:37 |
: I work at home, write about baseball, and play a lot of video games. If I’m wearing pants, I’m seriously annoyed.
|
| 1:37 |
I’m thinking you and Dave could host a very entertaining talk show on ESPN. |
| 1:38 |
: I have a lot of fun talking to Dave. It also helps that I’m the dissipated one and he’s very straight laced
|
| 1:38 |
this is why I don’t check out these chats any more… |
| 1:38 |
: A few years ago, we were at a writers thing at ESPN when they had NY offices
|
| 1:39 |
: The Daves went to bed at midnight, while I was out until 4, with a completely different group of people
|
| 1:40 |
: Slept for 3 hours, went up to get breakfast at barney greengrass, and was bright and fresh at the office at 930
|
| 1:40 |
I look bad in shorts, most of us do, don’t let that bother me! |
| 1:40 |
: I actually have pretty muscular legs. They need to be strong to get my fat ass around.
|
| 1:41 |
: My gut is a bowl of jelly like Santa Claus, but my calves are harder than when you open up a pack of baseball cards from the 80s and test the bubble gum
|
| 1:41 |
You’re the perfect foils for each other. Forget ESPN, how about a sabermetrics-themed buddy movie? |
| 1:41 |
To the guy who hates shorts: If you live in the South, pants aren’t really an option for outdoor activities in July and August. |
| 1:41 |
What you need to wear is a kilt |
| 1:41 |
: On that note, time to shut off the chat for a week!
|
| 1:41 |
: Thanks for coming and I hope to see you all next week.
|
| 1:42 |
So Selig is mad that A-Rod tried to buy the same evidence MLB tried (and eventually succeeded) in “buying”? |
| 1:42 |
: Pretty much. Only MLB is allowed to intimidate and pay off witnesses.
|
| 1:42 |
:
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
If you believe there’s something to all the games Flores played at 2B in AAA, what do you think the Mets do with Murphy next year?