Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/25/14

Dan Szymborski: BAR THE DOOR KATIE, IT’S A PIER SIX BRAWL

Dan Szymborski: In other words, the chattage has commenced.

Dan Szymborski: But first off, our usual strangely non-baseball related business.

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Comment From CS
Thoughts on Wada ROS and next year? Iawakuma 2.0? (somewhat racial profiling)

Dan Szymborski: Iwakuma’s damn good – I wouldn’t call Wada *that* good.

Dan Szymborski: Though I always liked him and thought he’d be a good pickup for someone after the injury

Comment From John Stamos
Is RA Dickey finished in providing value for fantasy teams?

Dan Szymborski: Probably – a league-average, durable inning-eater more valuable in real-life than fantasy.

Dan Szymborski: Not all that dissimilar from Wakefield’s valuation – he had value for Boston, but wasn’t much of a fantasy value

Comment From STiVo
Did anything interesting come up on the radio show you were just on? How do I make that sound less stalkerish?

Dan Szymborski: We talked about scrabble and the Egyptian protests!

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
A slightly random question but I hope you’ll indulge me. If you had to trust one arm ROS, would you prefer to rely on Hiroki Kuroda or Rubby De La Rosa? Thanks so much!

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d still feel safer with Kuroda

Comment From Tom
Is Trumbo’s power outage injury-related?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby has something to do with it – feet are useful, though probably not as directly damaging as a wrist or shoulder issue.

Comment From Farting for Science
Have you ever read about The Proteus Effect and its relation to avatar gaming? Google it.

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Normally we don’t want to put much stock in the AZFL stats, but would Buxton in theory be different in the sense that it could prove that he’s healthy?

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re not so much looking at the stats in this case, just that he’s healthy

Comment From Babe Ruth
On day one of the 2015 regular season, the Boston Red Sox outfield will consist of ???

Dan Szymborski: three outfielders, given the labels of “leftfield” “centerfield” and “rightfield” based on their loose geographical locations.

Comment From Jim
Nixon ftw. He sent some people to infiltrate Ikes headquarters and steal Ikes plans.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Is Billy Hamilton the type of player to keep in an OBP dynasty or trade for a more well rounded but less standoutish player?

Dan Szymborski: Depends if you feel you can survive the OBP or not. His stolen bases should increase

Comment From Double Simcoe
Hi, Dan! I know that you (for good reason) don’t answer a ton of team-specific fantasy questions, but I have some really close calls and would really appreciate some guidance. Can start 2 of 4 guys in an AL-Only, weekly league: Aoki, Mookie, Dyson, Wil Myers. You thoughts? Thanks!!!

Dan Szymborski: The Royals if I need to play it safe, Mookie and Myers if I need to reach for the upside.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Ugh, Memphis heel is such a good description of Nixon.

Comment From I like IKE
Ike hated Nixon, supposedly, so I will give Ike the edge here on heart and gut. Just like K Gibson says…and no video games in the locker room!

Comment From someGuy
How much do you think the injuries in the Angels rotation affect their ability to advance this postseason? Also how worried should Tigers fans be right now?

Dan Szymborski: It’s rough – Richards was their scariest starter to face in the playoffs.

Comment From Jon
Mookie Betts this week or Avisail??

Dan Szymborski: I’m staying away from Avisail this year. Recovered or not, I’m shying away from a dude coming back from torn shoulder unless he’s scary good otherwise

Comment From Nate
If there was a team that knew they’d finish .500 with their current roster, but would win the World Series by signing a particular FA, what kind of 1 year contract does he get? $50M?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly even more.

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Is Oscar Taveras finally showing us that it was just SSS, or should his lack of walking counteract any hitting too much?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s best to just stop worrying and be patient

Dan Szymborski: A *lot* of worrywarts talked themselves out of George Springer very quickly

Comment From Mike (DE)
I was hoping to get your thoughts on Pawtucket’s Derrik Gibson and how/if he fits in the Red Sox future plans?

Dan Szymborski: I get the impression they’re wait-and-see with him and will see how he does in AAA at the start of next year

Comment From Mike (DE)
Absolutely loving the Kiley McDaniel stuff. Really terrific.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
If Tanaka comes back healthy, how does this change the AL landscape? (with McCarthy, Kuroda, Tanaka and Greene/Capuano) the yankee rotation looks pretty solid.

Dan Szymborski: I’m still calling it a significant if. He of course helps, but in a month, one player isn’t a landscape changer

Comment From I like IKE
Do you have any insight on Pineda being potentially hurt from the MASH report?

Dan Szymborski: I do not, but given Pineda’s history, I always expect him to be a little bit injured.

Comment From RotoCurious
Who closes in Oakland w/Doolittle hurt?

Comment From Adam D
Hey Dan, what are your thoughts on Eric O’Flaherty filling in for OAK at closer? He’s never saved a game in MLB. Does he have the stuff to do the job?

Dan Szymborski: I like when questions answer themself!

Dan Szymborski: (The first one)

Dan Szymborski: The stuff to be a closer is the same stuff to be a good reliever.

Dan Szymborski: Doug Jones was an awesome closer and I din’t think he threw 90 *km* per hour.

Comment From Mack the Knife
Cano’s last year of .139 ISOp was 2008 – age 25 (and he had two .180s before that!). Will he see the power return next year, or do age and park mean this is what he is now? (I vote power)

Dan Szymborski: I think we should expect a power reduction for the reasons you posit

Comment From The Oberamtmann
Is dark-chocolate flavored ice cream still actually dark chocolate? I need to know if I can count on those health benefits.

Dan Szymborski: Depends how they obtain the dark chocolate.

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine any ice cream related proportional health benefit to dark chocolate ice cream would come down to the chunkiness quotient.

Comment From JBD
Have you ever seen evidence that home teams receive more favorable ball-strike calls from umpires?

Dan Szymborski: I have, but I can’t quote it off-hand.

Dan Szymborski: So I’m only like 95% sure, there’s a 5% chance that my brain is messing with me and I pulled it out of my ass

Comment From francis
Is Jeter batting #2 hurting the Yankees ?

Dan Szymborski: I’d argue that anything that results in Derek Jeter playing baseball in 2014 is hurting the Yankees.

Comment From Mike (DE)
Under the radar MVP candidates: Cano and Rendon?

Dan Szymborski: Cano’s been excellent, but I think too many writers are going to go OMG WHERE IZ THE POWR

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Rendon’s gotten enough writer buzz

Comment From Bobby Valentine
Are the 2014 red sox the most talked about last place team of ALL TIME?? It seems like the chats are about nothing but Xander, JBJ, Betts, Castillo and the Red Sox as a whole.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a popular team so they (Yankees too) will be talked about no matter what

Comment From Nate
I know how fickle pitchers are with their routines, but say your throwing your ace and in the 1st inning your team scores 10 runs. Would you go to the long man in the bullpen and save the starter for the following day when he’ll serve a greater purpose?

Dan Szymborski: It would be fun to try, but it’s the kind of thing you really need to get the players on the team to “buy” before you try

Dan Szymborski: But I’m all for crazy experiments – teams don’t spend enough time doing crazy experiments in the spring or when the season’s over

Comment From Bret
Jays offseason – double down (for real this time), stand mostly pat, or rebuild?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll just depressingly tread water like they did this yera

Comment From Mike (DE)
Mike Trout’s bomb last night evidence that he will be,from now on, impossible to pitch to?

Dan Szymborski: Now on? That was ago.

Comment From Josh
Is it time to worry about Machado spending his career on and off the DL?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry quite yet

Comment From Hamilton Porter
Do you think that Polanco was sent down to fine tune some things or more to build up his confidence with regular ABs?

Dan Szymborski: That’s likely – he’ll be back soon

Comment From AL
Dan, what are your expectations for Xander next season? What type of player do you see him being, and at which position?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a solid offensive SS, passable defensive SS. Hopefully Red Sox just leave him alone

Comment From Rated Rookie
I hate that football (the American variety) is back.

Dan Szymborski: Not me.

Comment From AL
Dan, which 2 outfielders would you take in a dynasty league,

Dan Szymborski: Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig!

Comment From Vic
What is to be expected out of Starlin Castro going forward? Will he rediscover his 300+ AVG?

Dan Szymborski: I think his true ability will be in the .290s. Not easy to put up a good BA when the league’s under .250.

Comment From Trent
Hammel has had two brutal starts with Oak, but otherwise been his normal self from this year. I think he’ll get back in the groove after a rest/skipped turn in the rotation. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: Yes – people get too obsessed with short-term trends

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Has Jose Abreu Locked up the AL ROY? and who is the NL ROY?

Dan Szymborski: I think Tanaka’s injury sealed the deal

Dan Szymborski: NL kinda tricky. Hamilton deserves it on merit I think, but there’s still this feeling that he’s not what he was “supposed to” be.

Comment From Robert
Wouldn’t the Angels winning the World Series with their rotation be awesome, considering how much has been disuccsed about their issues, and how much we have talked about the rotations of OAK/DET/LAD/WSH? Then again, they might just win every game 7-4 in spite of their staff which wouldn’t really prove anything

Dan Szymborski: Anything can happen in baeball essentially. That’s why I feel the WC having a much steeper uphill road is a good change

Comment From Good Gravy
Would the world be totally different right now if Nixon had allowed makeup to be applied to him during his televised debate with JFK?

Dan Szymborski: I think probably not

Comment From AL
(Sorry, my kid is trying to help) Dan which 2 outfielders would you take in a keep until you trade dynasty league: Hamilton, Tavares, Polanco, Springer

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, I thought I was going to take any 2

Dan Szymborski: Part of it is going to depend on the team construction

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably take Hamilton and then agonize between the two non-Polancos

Dan Szymborski: I love Polanco, but I think he’ll be a better real life player than a fantasy one

Comment From francis
Is there a site that shows a teams W-L when specific guys start or play at all in a game ? Not pitchers, position players.

Dan Szymborski: I do not believe so. Now the Elias Baseball Analysts in the 80s used to be obsessed with team-record w/ player, but that’s not directly helping you now

Comment From Nate
What’s the greatest possible 1-game WAR that you could realistically envision? Maybe a guy hits 5 homers and pitches a couple shutout innings?

Dan Szymborski: Hit 5 homers and injures Mike Trout if he’s on the other team

Comment From francis
I would say it is 98% certain Tanaka has TJS.

Dan Szymborski: I probably owuldn’t put it that high, but elbows don’t have happy endings.

Comment From THE average sports fan
If you had to wager an amount of money that mattered to you, who would you bet on to play 150 games in a season: Carlos Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Tulo, but you better give me some significant odds of that.

Comment From jocephus
do you have a nickname? zymbo, simbo, szymbo?

Dan Szymborski: Szym or Zim. I’m Szym internally at ESPN and I tend to use Zim as my gaming handles

Comment From Chris
In the month of August, Nolan Arenado leads the NL in wRC+, with a strikeout rate lower than his walk rate. Clearly the Rockies missed him and others due to injury, but it seems like the Rockies always miss a ton of guys due to injury; it seems like more than average. Do you think there’s something in the air out there, literally, that makes the Rockies more prone to injuries?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think they miss more than average, but I could be wrong.

Comment From Karl Karlson
Nats/A’s is the most watchable WS matchup in my opinion. So many aces! You?

Dan Szymborski: Well, O’s/Nats so I can easily go to all the games!

Comment From francis
The NYT had an article on the home field ball strike bias this weekend.

Dan Szymborski: I missed that one (I’d surely remember something I read over the weekend)`

Comment From Vincent Vega
Bacon tastes good!

Dan Szymborski: Correct.

Comment From francis
over-under Chris Davis year end BA: .185

Dan Szymborski: Over

Comment From Albert Pujols
Can we say that Strasburg is going to be an ERA underachiever until something significant changes? Sort of a Curt Schilling without the Innings?

Dan Szymborski: Isn’t his ERA/FIP disparity a quarter of a run or so? That’s not exactly alarming

Dan Szymborski: (Over a few years)

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Ad for Pizzeria Pretzel Combos on the right frame of the page is making me…. hungry?

Dan Szymborski: I cannot answer questions about your internal hunger.

Comment From AL
Projection for Dee Gordon next year, bust or more of what he’s been doing this year?

Dan Szymborski: I was skeptical of Gordon too, but he’s been legitimately good, not pretend good like some random dude with a .400 BABIP or somethign

Comment From Jim
To counter the ‘favorable strike zone’ argument, Atlanta Braves world series wins (not appearances). If they had favorable zones, they would have more than one in that time.

Comment From Sandy
Brett Talley’s post today about limiting hard contact suggests that Stephen Strasburg is particularly susceptible to being hit hard. Do you think this is advice that fantasy owners should act on? Is it time to sell high on Strasburg if you can?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s premature.

Comment From Guest
It seems Zips is more pessimistic on breakout pitchers and slower to adjust than Steamer.

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t compared them.

Comment From Don
Can/should Kershaw win the Cy with the reduced innings? He has already compiled 5+ WAR despite the missed time…

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Who is more valuable to their teams.. Lebron James of Peyton Manning?

Dan Szymborski: I will say Peyton, but that’s partially the nature of the quarterback position in football

Comment From Prospecting for Prospects
Do you know of any research that shows the success rate of top-rates prospects vs. non-top-rated prospects? All the hype around the Cubs (and not just for scrimping on healthcare) and their prospects and I wonder if we should all be looking at other players……

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m not sure of this one. I may have read something but I don’t remember.

Comment From Guest
Do you think the Mariners have the best pen?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, Ii’d say Royals.

Comment From Vic
If Delmon Young received 600 PAs next year as a DH, what would it look like?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby more usual Delmon.

Dan Szymborski: If Delmon’s a .360 BABIP guy, then I’m a dude who gets $100 from each person in this chat.

Dan Szymborski: (See what I did there? If I’m wrong you guys gotta pay up now. Blame Vic)

Comment From Scott
Gun to your head: Does Yu Darvish pitch again this season?

Dan Szymborski: This comes up a lot. What kind of psychopath demands baseball questions at gunpoint?

Dan Szymborski: And why are they not being arrested?

Dan Szymborski: There should be a paddy wagon outside your house right now.

Dan Szymborski: But assuming you’re a very bad person, I don’t think Yu is back this year.

Comment From Todd Zeile
Ervin Santana has a career K/9 of 7.18. So far this year it’s 8.21. ZIPS has him for 8.31 RoS. Does ZIPS know that he’s improved his pitch mix? Is it looking at his RoS schedule? Before this year, he’s had 5 straight years under 8. What makes ZIPS think he’s going to post an 8.31?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS ROS isn’t that sophisticated.

Dan Szymborski: (Needs to run every morning- can’t be full ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: And you have to remember from his career line that he pitched in a lower strikeout era in a lower strikeout league

Comment From Sean
I’m not sure if I agree that Hamilton “deserves” it on merit. His fWAR is due to vastly inflated defensive numbers due to the smallest CF in baseball.

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit speculative – Choo’s CIN CF numbers were atrocious and Stubbs has continued in Colorado to put up similar numbers and before him, Taveras wasn’t that far off his usual eitehr

Comment From Jimmers
How low do over all offensive numbers have to be for the league to start making changes? I mean, its dropping QUICK!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, to be honest.

Dan Szymborski: I think they go with the flow unless there’s real evidence that it’s hurting ticket sales

Comment From Guest
Has Kyle Hendricks been really good, or is he just lucky? When watching him pitch… it seems like he has some really late movement that makes him hard to square up.

Dan Szymborski: He’s been both. I think he’s a more mid-rotation type

Comment From CS
Although it is common for you and your FG peers to echo the same sentiments about predicitions, etc. Are there ever ‘heated’ internal rivalries or bets about conflicting predictions or opinions? Care to share any examples?

Dan Szymborski: None that I’ve been involved in.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not internally involved with FG on day-to-day basis, so I’m the wrong person to ask

Dan Szymborski: Now, ESPN, I haven’t been involved in any internal rivalries – most of the heated rivalries involve very angry readers

Comment From stinkeye
Seems like the AL went from having a couple of clear favorites to each of the contenders having significant flaws. Am I wrong about this? Are the A’s/Angels still that far ahead of the rest?

Dan Szymborski: I still think so.

Comment From Jimmers
RE: Peyton vs Lerbon, even though Peyton has no effect on defence, you have him as more valuable?

Dan Szymborski: But he has more effect on the part he’s involved in.

Comment From John
Keep hearing rumors the Braves are going to trade Gattis – how likely is it and how dumb an idea is it?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s likely.

Comment From STiVo
I thought you lived in Ohio–how does that make it easy to go to Nats/O’s series? Again, really, not meaning to sound like your stalker.

Dan Szymborski: I’m in Baltimore a lot, sometimes for weeks at a time.

Dan Szymborski: All I need to work is a laptop.

Dan Szymborski: Some places I’ve done chats from include Croatia, Grand Turk, and Bar Harbor.

Dan Szymborski: I also do not have children. So if I feel like going somewhere for a week, I just do it!

Comment From The Oriole Bird
If you want to cry, go read the comments on Cameron’s article on “The Orioles and Accepting Random Variation.”

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t cried since Aeris died.

Dan Szymborski: OK, that’s not true, my grandfather and dad died since then. But it’s unusual.

Comment From Jimmers
Why are there so very little fast guys who can take walks?? Seems like over the last 25 years, the league had PLENTY of them (Ricky, Lofton, Rock, Eric Young, Brett Butler, Offerman, Knoblauch, among many others). Seems like it was an “easy” way to be a valuable player. Is it because we now love the long ball too much?

Dan Szymborski: Probably because in a power age, you need to do more of those things than you used to

Comment From Josh
What do you see Kris Bryant’s numbers looking like next season, if he gets called up late April?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run the projection, but I expect it to be insane.

Comment From Josh
So about Anthony Rizzo… should fans be excited that he can even get better?

Dan Szymborski: No. Don’t be greedy. Big steps forward aren’t generally followed by more steps forward.

Comment From francis
Random LLWS question. Is the reason the US team loses so much because the foreign nations have one all-star team, while we have several local teams ? Does the LLWS like it this way to promote the sport internationally ?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, not sure how to answer that question.

Dan Szymborski: We’re not really organized in a way to have a national little league team in that way

Comment From Just Another Psychopath, Chatting with You
Knife to your throat, who hits more career HR: Puig or Trout?

Dan Szymborski: Puig by a little.

Comment From Just Another Psychopath, Chatting with You
Anvil perched perilously above your head, how many all-star appearances will Rendon make in his career?

Dan Szymborski: 4

Dan Szymborski: So much violence.

Comment From Dave, Toronto
How does the Japanese League handle PED’s? Have players tested positive?

Dan Szymborski: They do drug testing using Olympic standards, I believe

Dan Szymborski: Danny Rios and the utility Luis Gonzalez were both suspended for a year at one point

Comment From phillies
What was the one-game WAR when Rick Wise pitched a no-hitter and hit two homeruns in 1971? http://www.baseball-referen…

Comment From Mark
Have you updated your 10 year ZIPS for Pujols? Seems like his numbers are about three years advanced from where he was expected to be at this age.

Dan Szymborski: I did it recently for a piece on worst current contract obligations.

Dan Szymborski: Pujols was at -$120 million projected at that point, a couple million better than Fielder.

Comment From Josh
Where can I find your projections for players?

Dan Szymborski: Softly whispered in the breeze when the cherry blossoms are at just the right point.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Do you think WARs biggest flaw is that it calculates wins without taking the score and the situation in account. Should it be called True Skill Level?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s an issue – I’m not a fan of game state for just overall evaluation, from a philosophical standpoint.

Dan Szymborski: Even if we accept some form of randomness, we don’t have to *increase* the noise without much purpose

Dan Szymborski: At least, say with FIP vs. ERA, there’s evidence that he pitcher has some influence on hit balls. With WPA, we’re essentially including things like the player’s supproting offense

Comment From ChadBroChill17
Nixon would certainly have the edge in advance scouting over Ike, at least

Comment From Exar Kun
Final Fantasy X had the best story and plot twist of any Final Fantasy. Agree or Disagree?

Dan Szymborski: It was a very good one. However…

Dan Szymborski: I think the second-half of Final Fantasy XII was the plot that interested me the most.

Dan Szymborski: Man that was a poorly paced game – it’d be more popular if you could start about 1/3 of the way in

Comment From Sadwick
Red hot poker precariously close to your eye, why would arbitrary threats of violence change your answers to a question?

Dan Szymborski: While there are scenarios in which I would die out of principle, I won’t die out of *all* principles

Dan Szymborski: “Dan, activate this nuclear bomb that will blow up Chicago or we’ll kill you” OK, that’s a principle to die for.

Dan Szymborski: “Dan, say that Jeff Francoeur is awesome or we’ll kill you.” I’m not sure I’m ready to die in order to not be snarky about Frenchy

Comment From STiVo
Were Wieters’ ZiPS numbers crazy high when he was called up several years back? Or was it just Nate’s numbers?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS liked Wieters, but ZiPS was lower on Wieters than PECOTA, by a healthy margin

Comment From Guest
At what point in a no hitter does it become likely to happen? 1 out in the 8th?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where you’re drawing likely.

Dan Szymborski: I’d put it 50/50 at the start of ninth (since the pitcher is likely at a temporary true level above his normal ability)

Comment From Sadwick
The link to that Rick Wise game reminded me that Tim McCarver was a catcher. It makes a lot of sense though, I know I find it very easy to justify throwing things at McCarver.

Comment From Michelle
Why is the fWAR formula hidden?

Dan Szymborski: All great fortunes are based on a dark, dark secret.

Comment From Dr. Met
Didn’t someone on FG do a bust rate article on prospects a year ago?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible. I’m a rather odd baseball writer, not a database!

Comment From Guest
Does Grant Balfour, Jim Johnson, and Joe Nathan make Papelbons contract more or less “valuable”. He’s still overpaid, but at least he’s consistent.

Dan Szymborski: Relievers are only consistent until they’re not.

Comment From Art Vandelay
ChadBroChill17? Now that’s a throwback. Look back at all the people who graduated out of Derrick Comedy and are on to bigger and better things.

Dan Szymborski: Anyway, on that note, time to wrap it up for antoher week.

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me at ESPN.com mainly, projections and chats here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: And last off-topic note, did any of you hearthstone players watch hyperx invitational yesterday? The last game was insane. Triple Ragnaros!