Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/4/14

Dan Szymborski: And we are live.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not at home at the moment, so no election today.

Dan Szymborski: (and I have to strictly stick to 1 PM today)

Comment From Guest
With the Mets having one of the best farm systems in the league after the Twins Cubs and ‘stros, and the rest of the NL East teams having below average at best farm systems, can you forsee any time in the near future where the Mets run away with the division every year, or is that just every Met fans fantasy?

Dan Szymborski: I know I’ve talked about this before, but I’m a big fan of the Mets future, simply because they have so many of the necessary elements right there.

Dan Szymborski: The issue is ownership and on-field management.

Dan Szymborski: I know I’ve compared them to a guy with great furniture, but assembly’s required and the instructions are in old norse.

Dan Szymborski: The Astros a few years ago, before they really started rebuilding, were like an episode of Chopped where they have to make a dessert from fish sauce, belly button lint, and styrofoam peanuts.

Dan Szymborski: But the mets are like one of those Top Chef finales where they have access to amazing ingredients. But they’re kind of stuck with having some bitter incompetent eliminated chef as assistants.

Comment From Gary
Did you ever consider spelling it Szyps?

Dan Szymborski: No, simply because the szy can befuddle people.

Dan Szymborski: I’m usually Zim more often than I’m Szym

Comment From person hscer
do you buy the currently 91% odds given by FG that the Nationals win the East

Dan Szymborski: Probably place it a bit lower than that. Havven’t run the latest ZiPS (which will be on ESPN tomorrow)

Comment From Steve
What do you think of Kevin Gausman ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Like. He’s not a guy they’re going to stretch 8 innings but I think he’s the best in the rotation at preventing the other team from scoring, when it comes down to it.

Comment From Lee
Best way to project the 2015 and beyond performance of a pre-arb, non super-2 pitcher? Someone like Peralta on the Brewers..

Dan Szymborski: I have a little model I’ve done for it, but I need to do it individually.

Comment From Dave
How do the you see the rest of the Jays season going, just lost 3 of 4 to the Astros right after the player’s were all sulking because we didnt trade for Martin Prado (seriously wtf? i thought that was a good no move). Storm brewing that could potentially ruin the season? I personally though Janssen’s comments were out of order.

Dan Szymborski: Deadline was a disaster. They had the best opportunity to add value to get the team back into the playoffs in a long time. And they acquired Danny Valencia

Comment From Eric
How does ZiPS project BABIP? A specific example is Mookie Betts. He’s projected for a .260ish BABIP, which seems conservative.

Dan Szymborski: I have a model based on history and in the year-toyear, I use hit ball data from minors too

Comment From jocephus
Fangraphs has Adams at 2.3 WAR in 370 PA, even though he’s having a fantastic year at the plate, and Bourjos at 1.1 WAR in 215 PA even though he’s having a miserable year at the plate. That’s 4.3 WAR/700 for Adams and 3.6 WAR/700 for Bourjos. That’s close to the same player. This year. If Bourjos hits at all (and he’s still coming off an injury) he’s a monster player.

Dan Szymborski: Bourjos remains underrated.

Comment From Brian
How close are we to the tipping point of MLB doing something significant about Kirk Gibson? What would put him over the line in their eyes?

Dan Szymborski: He’d probably have to set off a suitcase nuke or have heard of steroids.

Comment From Brian McNamee
Is this Terry Collins last year as Met’s skipper?

Dan Szymborski: You’d think so, but given there’s no reason for him to be manager now and they employ him, it’s not like there’s going to be any less reason next year.

Comment From David
Are we going to see Joc Pederson this year? Or has Kemp’s hot streak made a promotion unlikely?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a cup of coffee, but that’s about it. I dont think they’re going to find significant playing time for him this year

Comment From Guest
What kind of numbers would Trout put up in NPB?

Dan Szymborski: All of them.

Dan Szymborski: If Trout went and played in a lesser league than MLB at this point, they’d just give him all the numbers and start expressing the statistics of everybody else in letters.

Comment From Ronnie
What do I do now that Goldie is out for the year? I’ve had Duda parked in my UTIL spot, but do you think Napoli would make a meaningful addition as well?

Dan Szymborski: As always, depends on what your other options are. Probably not a bad pickup, given the craptitude that floats around the waiver wires in my league.

Comment From Vic
Who’s a better pitching prospect than Giolito?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably put Jonathan Gray ahead, but Giolito’s right upt here now

Comment From Thurman Merman
The Orioles aren’t really going to send Gausman down – again – to make way for Jiminez, are they?

Dan Szymborski: ZIM SMASH

Comment From Travis
Does it surprise you as much as it surprised me to learn that Jason Heyward is sixth among position players in WAR?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’s a terrific defender. They should probably be playing him in center, I think he’s actually hit a ceiling in how much he can contribute defensively in right

Comment From Vic
Any chance Ackley develops into a Howie Kendrick type player?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Alex
Is Andre Ethier worth a gamble for next season?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Garth Vader
For MiLB guys is there anyway tell if a high K rate is due to contact issues/inability vs plate discipline issues without the benefit of the MLB plate discipline data we have? Scouting reports?

Dan Szymborski: You can actually swing data these days from mining minor league data.

Comment From Stelio…Stelio Kontos
With Price in Detroit, does that signal the end of Scherzer’s time in the Motor City? If so, can he reasonably expect to land a better offer than the 6/144 that the Tigers made earlier this year?

Dan Szymborski: No, because the end was already signaled months ago.

Dan Szymborski: Picking up Price wasn’t Appomattox for Tigers/Scherzer, it was the Stand Watie surrender.

Comment From person hscer
is Buchholz the most maddening pitcher of the last several years?

Dan Szymborski: Probably.

Comment From Sandy Kaz
Loved your take on Price trade. Less shiny wins now are a nice counter to the current status of prospect hoarding. Will this signal a shift in the market as teams begin to realize shiny prospects are only a tremendous value if they turn into average and above players?

Dan Szymborski: Prospects are likely still going to be hot — for very good reason — but my position on the Rays is that in contention, like the Red Sox, they were in a position that it’s appropriate to be more risk-averse

Dan Szymborski: If the Twins or Astros had Price and traded him for that package, that *would* be an issue, because those teams can play for upside and sweat the volatility.

Comment From MoneyBaller
I was looking at it today, and the Mets really have a great prospect at every position. d’Arnaud and plawecki at C, Dom smith at 1b, Hererra at 2b, Flores/rosario/checcini at SS. Wright at 3b. Conforto Nimmo Lagares Granderson Etc. in the OF/ And the pitching is gonna be shutdown. Harvey/Syndergaard/Wheeler/Montero/deGrom/Gee/Nies. youre 100% right about the ownership

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Is Britton throwing his fastball harder than in previous years?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Helps to know that your’e only throwing an inning!

Comment From Dave
So do you think the players were right to air their frustrations in public or do you think they shoulda just sucked it up and play? I cant see how that helps

Dan Szymborski: I think it was properly counterproductive, even if I agree with them.

Comment From Bobs Burgers
Seriously though, what are the Diamondbacks doing? They draft so well and then they piss all that talent away.

Dan Szymborski: The Diamonbacks aren’t confusing. They’re just run by Kevin Towers.

Comment From Bryan
Should the Yankees put in a claim on Kendrick? Pretty terrible year but with phelps down, they need help

Dan Szymborski: It’s worth doing, though I don’t expect there will be a trade.

Comment From Starlourde
Hey Dan, whenever someone cites a guy’s postseason numbers (lots of folks were citing Jon Lester as a good pick-up because he’s been a postseason monster), do you immediately just think small sample size, or do you think there’s really something to some players being better/worse in postseason?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found any predictive value to this.

Dan Szymborski: Now, postseason numbers should be contained in projections, but that’s a different story!~

Comment From Steve
Is Tulowitzki the best trade option for the Mets considering their pitching depth or would you lok elsewhere? Cubs?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Tulo’s a great trade option because he’s an unreal player and it’s an excellent price for him.

Comment From I Did It All For The Mookie
Please tell me the Phillies will fire RAJ this off season. Please.

Dan Szymborski: The Phillies will fire RAJ this offseason. I don’t actually know that, but you wanted me to tell you.

Comment From Lenard
I just traded for Trout. Cost me next years 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks, plus Heyward and Alcantara. Received Trout, Rutledge, and late round picks back. I’m going for it this year and Trout can be kept forever. Heyward and Alcantara can be kept for a long time very cheaply. Too high a price or just right?

Dan Szymborski: Keeping forever, it’s justified. And Heyward is more valuable in real life than fantasy

Comment From Andrew
Your Terry Collins answer leads to very sad inferences for Phillies fans re Ruben Amaro. Could you make me less sad?

Dan Szymborski: If the Mets have excellent furniture with some assembly required, the Phillies have a pile of metal they found in a dumpster that they simply assume goes together somehow because metal.

Comment From Brian McNamee
Most likely to be a Met in 2015 – Matt Kemp, Troy Tulo, or Hanley Ramirez?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly Hanley, but I don’t actually expet any to really be likely to be a Met.

Comment From Brett
Can I ask you to narrow down the number of MLB ABs to ~100 when a player goes from ‘prospect’ to ‘that’s who he is as a MLB player’?

Dan Szymborski: You can ask me, but I won’t do it. When dealing with actual players, there are very few “generic situations” and it’s risky to draw a hard and fast rule on a nuanced statistical matter.

Comment From Matt F
Most sneakily valuable player this year? My Vote goes to Heyward. At one point last week BR had him at the third highest WAR behind Trout/Tulo. Anyone else like that for you?

Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s probably a good pick, though we’ve already been talking about him. You could argue Alex Gordon or even Phil Hughes, too.

Comment From Aaron (UK)
________ ____ _______

Dan Szymborski: Poopbutt McFartpants.

Comment From PG
Tell me something I didn’t know before Thursday about Willy Adames The Great Trade Facilitator

Dan Szymborski: Adames is a trained concert pianist, performed Mozart’s Piano Concerto No. 20 in D minor with John Eliot Gardiner in 2005 and was taught by Alfred Brendel.

Dan Szymborski: You didn’t say it had to be true.

Comment From MoneyBaller
Oakland have one of the best rotations EVER?

Dan Szymborski: Bit of a stretch.

Comment From Cody
Did the Mariners do enough at the trade deadline to win the 2nd wild card?

Dan Szymborski: You kinda wanted to see them keep David Price for themselves, but I think Austin Jackson is a very underrated pickup.

Comment From Bill
How much do you think players’ personalities in the clubhouse affects play on the field? Enough that Boston having, in effect, jettisoned Hall-of-Fame-caliber redasses Pierzynski and Lackey for large goofy puppy dog Joe Kelly, and St. Louis doing the opposite, will affect both teams in ways that ZiPS won’t capture?

Dan Szymborski: People are very complex and it’s hard to simply gauge how people will interact with each other.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not really “luck” but it acts as if its luck, so it’s better focus on things you can better control.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like people are separated into Mean People and Nice People and you can just accumulate Nice People and everything will be hunky dory

Comment From Marion
Lester is easily a top 10 pitcher in the game. What do you think he gets on the open market? 5/110?

Dan Szymborski: More.

Comment From STiVo
How’s your drinking water?

Dan Szymborski: I’m in SW Ohio, not NW Ohio.

Comment From Chris
Who wins the 2016 World Series: Cubs or Astros?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: (Hey, your question lets me take the field)

Comment From Michael
Do you think Sam Fuld was worth giving up Tommy Milone for? Will it come back and haunt the A’s?

Dan Szymborski: Not my favorite trade in the world, but Milone’s not really good enough to haunt them.

Comment From person hscer
is it ah-DAMES, AD-ames, Adams?

Dan Szymborski: uh-DAHM-ess

Dan Szymborski: well, the average of that and uh-DAHM-ace

Comment From tahwmy
This month, Ruben Amaro Jr. will trade ___________ for _________

Dan Szymborski: his allowance, cootie detector

Comment From person hscer
Remember Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt? Good times for “best rotations ever”

Dan Szymborski: That really *did* perform as one of the best rotations of the 5 man era

Comment From Dan
Is Robbie Ray much better than Jake Thompson? Or is the Fister deal that bad?

Dan Szymborski: Fister deal’s bad.

Comment From Clyde
Do you think D.J. Peterson gets a shot at 1B with the Mariners next year?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe. He certainly won’t start with the team and his later season play will depend on how he does at AAA and how many mediocre 1B/DH types the M’s acquire this winter.

Comment From PieTraynee
In your estimation, is josh Harrison a solid regular going forward, or is this still a flash in the pan?

Dan Szymborski: He’s had a nice run, but solid regular still too aggressive for me.

Comment From Marion
6/135? 7/150? Somewhere in that ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Matts
Is momentum for teams actually real? I find it hard to believe it’s just a statistical anomaly that a teams scores 9 runs in an inning or a teams rattles off a 20 game winning streak.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found much evidence of it

Dan Szymborski: Once you use an underlying distribution of “true ability” rather than a single probability, teams aren’t any streaker than one would expect.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, a .”true” 333 team has a 0.03% of going 20 losses in a row and there have been a few more than random chance

Dan Szymborski: but once you accept that a .333 team is sometimes a .300 team and sometimes a .370 team, the probabilities all work out

Comment From Guest number 3.14159
Any Trade deadline based Hearthstone cards?

Dan Szymborski: Been busy, haven’t done any this week!

Dan Szymborski: Also, I’ve really worked that gag the last few weeks, so it proably needs a break

Comment From baltic fox
Regarding the mean people/nice people argument: Jim Palmer and Earl Weaver had thinly veiled contempt for one another. Most of the ’72-’74 champion Athletics loathed their manager Dick Williams, and each other, and it didn’t prevent them from winning in the post-season.

Comment From Reggie
Aren’t you big into video games? If so whats your fav game and system?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. It remains Final Fantasy VI and SNES.

Comment From danny
when the new defensive tracking system comes out next year is it going to change the way we calculate dWAR?

Dan Szymborski: I think people are overestimating the impact of these things.

Comment From Marion
Which Japanese pitcher had the best career? It will probably end up being Darvish but he’s only 3 years in. Kuroda maybe?

Dan Szymborski: Darvish.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, *had*?

Comment From baltic fox
Regarding the mean people/nice people argument: Jim Palmer and Earl Weaver had thinly veiled contempt for one another. Most of the ’72-’74 champion Athletics loathed their manager Dick Williams, and each other, and it didn’t prevent them from winning in the post-season.

Comment From baltic fox
Regarding the mean people/nice people argument: Jim Palmer and Earl Weaver had thinly veiled contempt for one another. Most of the ’72-’74 champion Athletics loathed their manager Dick Williams, and each other, and it didn’t prevent them from winning in the post-season.

Dan Szymborski: wtf?

Dan Szymborski: Right now, it would probably be very close between Kuroda and Nomo, but I expect Darvish to end at top

Dan Szymborski: Since we’re saying this right now, the uncertainty of what’s going on with Tanaka’s elbow is enough to make Darvish the clear favorite right now.

Comment From Alex
The Red Sox should sign him a 6/130

Dan Szymborski: I think if they were really willing to go that high on Lester, he would have already signed.

Comment From person hscer
Runs in a half-inning: mode has to be 0, median MIGHT be 1, mean this year appears to be 0.46. What’s 9 runs in an inning if not at least a statistical anomaly?

Dan Szymborski: You’re not looking at it the right way, it’s Poisson, not normal

Dan Szymborski: Sean Dolinar I think is the most recent to look at this, but you’ll have to google. I actually have the image saved, but it’s not uploaded (I’ll do it over next few questions)

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, I saved it on my laptop!

Comment From Marion
If Tanaka was healthy all year and maintained his pace, would he be ROY over Abreu?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Well, should’ve

:

Comment From Marion
% chance of Tigers extending Price?

Dan Szymborski: coin flip

Comment From Guest number 3.14159
FF6? Save Cid or leap of faith?

Dan Szymborski: It fits the storyline better if Cid dies, though I always try to save him. But I don’t save and reset if the fish aren’t good

Comment From kevinthecomic
is this a real chat or just a zimulation?

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite weird, I think it’s a long way until a Szymborski-specific Turing test is passed.

Comment From Marion
I was supposed to work out 40 minutes ago but I hate missing these chats!

Dan Szymborski: The Dan Szymborski Chat: Stopping the Fight Against Obesity Since 2010.

Comment From dbet
Did you Like FF: Tactics? That is probably tied with VI for me as greatest game. The storyline is just too damn good!

Dan Szymborski: Great game, but the last third of the game suddenly too easy, even if you don’t use Cid

Dan Szymborski: Once you’re past Wiegraf, the difficulty ramps down.

Comment From BassmanUW
Based on Epstein’s and Hoyer’s statements that the Cubs had the money in their budget to sign Tanaka at $20 million per year plus the posting fee, they could have had an MLB budget of about $110 million this season. If that’s the same number they’ll have available in 2015, they’ll have about $50 million available to spend in the off season. Considering that situation, do you see the Cubs going hard after Lester? Should they? Or is it still a year or two too early for that?

Dan Szymborski: I personally think it’s still too early.

Comment From Edward
Do you see the Cincinnati Reds making a potential second half run at the division crown or Wild Card?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, it could happen, but the Reds have serious depth issues that are biting them that aren’t going away

Comment From zurzles
any under-the-radar players who might end up with hall of fame careers?

Dan Szymborski: Does Buehrle count, assuming he keeps putting off his threat to retire?

Dan Szymborski: Last I checked, ZiPS actually has Buehrle nearing top 50 of all pitchers in career bWAR bys eason’s end.

Dan Szymborski: He’s likely to get win 200 before the end of the year at 35.

Dan Szymborski: Every modern pitcher with 200 wins through age 35 is either a Hall of Fame or got significant support

Dan Szymborski: The worst pitchers in that category were Lolich (who got a little support and Hunter (who got in) and Buehrle’s actually better than both

Dan Szymborski: (and he has a better ERA+ than all the 190s through age 135 excepct Perry who did get in)

Comment From person hscer
http://stats.seandolinar.co…

:

Comment From Edward
Is Billy Hamilton the Rookie of the Year favorite in the National League at this point in the season?

Comment From john
DeGrom have a legit shit at NL Roy?

Dan Szymborski: I think Hamilton’s the best candidate, but I think DeGrom will get serious consideration.

Dan Szymborski: Hamilton’s season is weird, in that the shape isn’t quite what we expected.

Dan Szymborski: His extra-base hitting has actually been more valuable than his stealing has been

Dan Szymborski: He’s only got a couple of stolen base runs

Comment From Dr. Met
PSA for gamers: Target doing a B1G1 25% off steam xbox and playstation cards.

Comment From Steve
Final Fantasy VI was/is so good.

Dan Szymborski: Still a good game.

Dan Szymborski: I still remember the day I bought it

Dan Szymborski: I had reserved it at software etc. in towson town center months before.

Dan Szymborski: And I got my own car over the week before (got my license that August) and going to the mall to pick it up was the first time I drove somewhere by myself in my own car

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, gotta race through the last few mins.

Comment From Chris
Tying together the video game discussion with baseball, do you think having the only good baseball video game (The Show) be on one system could hurt the game in the long run? Soccer is growing very quickly in popularity in the US, and the availability and popularity of the FIFA games is cited as one reason for this. Should MLB be working harder to have good video games available to a much larger audience? (no, RBI Baseball and the 2k series don’t count).

Dan Szymborski: Possibly, I don’t think the exclusive licensing deals have been good for baseball or football.

Dan Szymborski: MLB the Show is an amazing game

Comment From Ace
Holy crap, I just noticed that starting in 2001, Buehrle has pitched at least 200 innings EVERY YEAR.

Comment From john
Dies it hurt Hamilton chance that expectations were sky high while help DeGrom’s were non existent?

Dan Szymborski: I think it does. Some might ding him for the fact that he’s not stealing 90 or something.

Dan Szymborski: And the value of SLG and real defensive value are more subtle for many

Dan Szymborski: Crap, I can’t find the post-hoc analysis Q. Don’t remember the exacts, does MRT apply to your istuation?

Dan Szymborski: Ack, gotta go. Have an appointment

Dan Szymborski: yada yada ESPN FanGraphs DSzymborski insert joke