Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/13

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to this Haphazardly Scheduled Special Edition of Dan Szymborskirama.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
BREAKING: Szymborski suspended through 2014 for Twitter hijinks.

Dan Szymborski: Dave just got the link up now (good reaction time, he did it within a minute of me emailing him)

Dan Szymborski: But right now there are only *10* live readers (usual is about 700-1000), so it may be slow for a few minutes.

Comment From NobodyBeatstheBiz
Mets: Top 10 rotation in August 2014?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, add in Montero and Noah Syndarg…Synderga…Smith and it’s looking pretty sweet with Niese, Harvey, Wheeler

Comment From JEB
When’s this damn suspension gonna happen? Quit putting it off MLB, I need the Tigers to take the hit with JP gone for the ROS.

Dan Szymborski: Supposed to be 3 o’clock now

Dan Szymborski: When 2:30 comes, they’ll reschedule it to 9 PM. Then at 8 PM, to Friday. Friday, to the wild card play-in game.

Comment From Mike Honcho
Best OF options going forward…Viciedo, Ludwick, Willingham?

Dan Szymborski: Ludwick’s really the most interesting.

Comment From Guest
are you taking football keeper questions ?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take pretty much any Q on a day like this. Everybody’s focused on the suspensions after all – Wendy Thurm’s doing a post-suspension chat later, so it makes more sense to ask her the particulars

Dan Szymborski: Given that we don’t know any of the particulars really!

Dan Szymborski: I will have a piece up on ESPN spitspot.

Comment From bdhudson
only ten of us! all of the questions!

Comment From Dan
Forgetting about PEDs, can we just all agree Alex Rodriguez isn’t very good at baseball anymore?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s something we can all agree on. He’s not prime or even subprime A-Rod.

Dan Szymborski: He’s dude in a dark alley wearing a zoot suit and flipping a nickle with a toothpick in his mouth while he grins and has a pencil mustache A-Rod

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know any loan sharks, so that’s what I believe they look like.

Comment From Pete
Would you trade Wil Myers and Austin Jackson for Jacoby Ellsbury. I just don’t know if I want to give up Myers…

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t

Comment From STiVo
Do you think George Springer will make an appearance for the Astros in 2013? What says ZiPS about his true talent?

Dan Szymborski: DOn’t have ZiPS fired up at the moment, but I think he’ll just get a sip.

Comment From bdhudson
how many serial killers will be used in A-Rod analogies today?

Dan Szymborski: Lots. I’m hoping someone calls A-Rod baseball’s John Wayne Gacy because OMG HE RAPED AND STRANGLED THE DREAMS OF CHILDREN!

Dan Szymborski: As I was telling my editor, I’m half-hoping that Jeter is on the list, just to see baseball media go absolutely apeshit and result in a divide by zero error that brings the whole system down

Comment From JEB
Which team takes the biggest hit with the suspensions? Tigers? Rangers?

Dan Szymborski: Rangers I suspect

Comment From Steve
Tigers are better with Iglesias at SS, right?

Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t say better, but the Tigers actually did some planning

Comment From MikeB
Ervin Santana is probably due for some regression, but given his increased sinker usage, what do you see as his “new” true talent level?

Dan Szymborski: Probably a 2/3 guy at this point

Comment From Ben
What kind of contract do you think Ellsbury is going to get? Any predictions as to wear he signs?

Dan Szymborski: That’s one I might save for ZiPS simply because it’s hard to discount injury risk in my head for him

Comment From Keith, Manchester, CT
Thanks Dan. I’m a big Anthony Rendon fan. Are you optimistic about his future, and is there any chance his bat picks up next month as the Sept. call-ups thin the pitching quality?

Dan Szymborski: He had a rough July, but he’ll be just fine. I wouldn’t worry about it – bad months happen all the time. The bigger risk for awhile is always going to be injury

Comment From Guest
Dan,

Dan Szymborski: Guest,

Comment From JasoninDallas
What if any changes to the JDA do you expect before 2014 season??

Dan Szymborski: None short-term. I think it depends whether the players involved are treated like Mikhail Tukhachevsky or, like, well, people with rights to due process and all that junk.

Comment From Ron
Do you think Xander Boegarts debuts this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Comment From tehzachatak
Dan, Dan, he’s our man, if he can’t do it, no one can!

Dan Szymborski: That would be bad news for society. I can’t be a doctor and, assuming my knowledge of biology isn’t woefully incomplete, I don’t think I can have babies.

Comment From Star Buck
Farquhar? Unhittable since the All-Star break…his job to lose?

Dan Szymborski: He finished off the last couple games against the O’s. M’s aren’t invested in anyone, so they’ll pretty much let him go out there until he sucks or something

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, Farquhar has a very entertaining FIP/ERA inconsistency

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Hey, so Jonah Keri thinks the Marlins have the right prospects to be a very good team in 2015. My question is, how can Loria most efficiently ruin that?

Dan Szymborski: If I had a time machine, I’d go back in time and ask dr. seuss to make a customized oh the places you’ll go for Jeff Loria’s graduation, full of the horrible things he’s going to do later

Comment From JWoods
Josh Johnson is getting killed (high BABIP + lots of home runs) with runners on base / working from the stretch. Is this bad luck and noise, or he essentially unusable in real life and fantasy until he proves otherwise?

Dan Szymborski: Latter

Comment From Bog Loblaw
What does Cruz’s suspension do to Texas’s playoff odds? If you assume he’s worth about 1 win for 50 games and the Rangers probably have to replace him with a replacement level player, his suspension probably costs them 1 win, right?

Dan Szymborski: That’s about right. I actually have that ZiPS thing open right now so gimme a sec.

Comment From ROS
If a player has been injured in the past and Zips has them pegged for somewhat less than 162 games, but they have been very healthy so far this year, is is safe to assume good health ROS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is less complex in-season, so that it can be run easily.

Dan Szymborski: In-season playing time hasn’t been the priority – I prioritize improving in-season performance itself

Dan Szymborski: I think people are better at projecting playing time

Comment From zack
Do you have any explanation for Jhoulys Chacin? Historically low hr to fly ball rate and pitches half his games in coors.

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to look at the charts – nothing really pops off the top of my head

Dan Szymborski: These types of Q are difficult in-chat

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Do you think the O’s will bring Gausman back for innings out of the bullpen when rosters expand?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Ryan
What’s your favorite predictor for future pitcher performance?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS! I use FIP a lot because it’s easy, accessible, and generally well-acknowledged by this point

Comment From Guest
Ooh, only ten people; now’s my chance! Jhoulys Chacin has a 5.27 K/9, but is still kicking butt. Proof that a pitch to contact guy can survive (thrive, even) in Coors Field?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still skeptical of that long-term. He has survived, but there are also instances of people falling out of planes from altitude and living

Comment From Bo
I read Dave’s article on Chris Johnson… What are your thoughts on his offensive production?

Dan Szymborski: I remain very skeptical.

Comment From Alex Cole
Dante Bichette is bald!

Dan Szymborski: At the moment, I sort of am too. Attempted to shave my head.

Dan Szymborski: Did not finish as my clippers were apparently *not* charged that well

Dan Szymborski: so I have a number of areas of long hair, I look like I just started chemo or something

Comment From Bryan
Any projections in the last couple years you’ve had that were really far from the norm, yet turned out to be spot on?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to look that up to give a better answer. I try not to dwell on individual cases, because that focus can hurt attempts to make a generally solid system

Comment From tehzachatak
How good is Christian Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: Very, though I wouldn’t call him a completed project yet

Comment From Joey
When did MLB turn into Michael Scott in the first Halloween episode…when he kept putting off firing someone in October until he was forced to at the Halloween party.

Dan Szymborski: MLB’s not Michael Scott – Scott was a well-meaning doofus.

Comment From juan pierres mustache
what is a spitspot?

Dan Szymborski: Watch Mary Poppins

Comment From zack
Should the marlins player development people get a lot of credit? Whatever you think of Loria, they keep churning out quality players

Dan Szymborski: Nothing wrong with the player development system. The problem is that the major league part of the system, thanks to Loria, is developmentally disabled

Comment From Rocket Roger
Will Jesus Montero be able to play minor league games if he is suspended by MLB

Dan Szymborski: no

Comment From STiVo
Why does Fangraphs not list a ZiPS projection for lots of minor league players (e.g., Bogaerts!)

Dan Szymborski: FG doesn’t have an in-season translation mechanism

Comment From zack
If a yankees prospect struggles is it fair to say it is ARODs fault?

Dan Szymborski: Everythign’s A-Rod’s fault. Disillusionment with A-Rod betraying America’s children is what’s causing a poor increase in the number of full-time jobs.

Comment From NobodyBeatstheBiz
Lucas Duda and Ike Davis: Major league hitters next year, or no?

Dan Szymborski: I think yes. Though obviously Ike’s outlook is *way* down

Comment From zack
Is it sad/funny that Yankees third basemen have been so ruinously awful that a aged, broken down, deroided AROD is an upgrade?

Dan Szymborski: It can be both. Graig Nettles would be an upgrade. Now

Comment From Sam
Is a team full of the absolute average (about 2 WAR) player at each position an 81 win team in theory? If not, why?

Dan Szymborski: Well, average of 2 WAR isn’t really exact.

Dan Szymborski: But 18 WAR from lineup, 10 from starting pitchers, 5 from relievers, gets you right around 80-81 wins depending

Comment From pr
could you pls explain how ZIPs ERA projections work? I would think they should be more based on historical FIP/xFIP whereas they appear to be more based on historical ERA?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS regresses FIP based on sample size.

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to believe Matt Cain’s ability to outperform his FIP to be significantly more real than a rookie’s

Comment From Three Fingers Stump
Who do you like coming out of the NL Central and will that team make it to the WS

Dan Szymborski: Cardinals are still the most dangerous NL Central team. I think either them or Braves in WS

Comment From zack
What do you think will happen to Aj burnett this offseason? Will he take a discount to stay in Pittsburgh? There was talk that he might retire.

Dan Szymborski: He’s talked about retirement, but don’t generally believe players until they *actually* do so

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll at least stay in the NL

Comment From David
Favorite to win the National League as of today?

Dan Szymborski: St. Louis

Comment From Milhouse
Can I really trust F. Liriano the rest of the season to keep throwing QS’s?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. I liked him a lot coming into the year (I’ve been lucky with the pitchers I praised last winter), and his season isn’t exactly going to dissuade me from likign him

Dan Szymborski: The whole bases empty/runners on thing was way overblown

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he had trouble with his slider with runners on base, but you have to be very careful about making a predictive statement based on that

Comment From juan pierres mustache
Is the Vaccinator actually useful, or do people just use it because it makes medic more interesting?

Dan Szymborski: Woo, TF2 Qs!

Dan Szymborski: Vaccinator is inferior in competitive, but in pub games, it’s quite useful

Dan Szymborski: In a pub game, there’s generally less of the high-end teamwork, in which case the vaccinator as a general support weapon is very handy

Comment From Wyld Stallyn
Who would you choose for a 2014 Home Run Bat Flip Derby? Puig and Myers would obviously be the Captains (alternate rank: Swag Lords).

Dan Szymborski: heh

Comment From LaLoosh
more bizarre than usual so far…

Dan Szymborski: That’s saying something

Comment From Anon21
If the Nationals go on to finish below .500, can you think of any recent *negative* surprise of similar magnitude? Preseason best-team-in-baseball favorites to losing record would be pretty strange.

Dan Szymborski: Angels and Jays pretty negative too – very little worked out for them

Dan Szymborski: I’m having a better year with individual player projections than teams I expected to be really solid

Comment From Sam
Off the top of your head, who would you say is the most “average” starting pitcher in the league, and which advanced statistic would you use to know for sure?

Dan Szymborski: Jeremy Guthrie

Dan Szymborski: To be most average

Dan Szymborski: For most average, I’d do ABS(PLAYER ERA+ – 96) and take the lowest

Comment From Adam
Is it a complete travashamackory that Trout will likely be beat out by Chris Davis in the MVP voting? I can understand Miggy, but seriously Davis is having a great year, but Trout’s all around production is sick.

Dan Szymborski: I think Trout’s got a little Tim Raines disease

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard for the media to latch onto a guy who is amazing at absoultely everything than a guy who is fucking amazing at one particular aspect

Comment From zack
Delmon Young has 285 PAs. Is he the worst regular in baseball and how should Phillies fans reflect on the fact that he played everyday this season?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, he’s one of the players I’d least like my team to acquire, but Keppinger and Yuny and the Nerk and Upton at least have been worse

Comment From LarryA
But…A-ROD would improve the yankees right now if he played right?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Guest
I traded away Pujols in a keeper league for Anthony Rizzo. I’m in the hunt and he’s last, did i do alright?

Dan Szymborski: Perfectly cromulent

Dan Szymborski: When Pujols signed with the Angels, I said that the Cards got the Beatles, while the Angels would get the solo albums

Dan Szymborski: but it’s looking like the Angels just got Ringo

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
So Derek Jeter on PED’s would cause a Y2K like fall of civilization? Is that’s how the Terminator started?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much. Though I haven’t done much Jeterpocalypse planning, simply because I don’t think fat nerd baseball writers are very useful after the collapse of civilization

Comment From zack
Is there any chance we see Jameson Tallion in the big leagues this september?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s good enough to be useful even in a pennant race, though the contours of that will affect what his role would be

Comment From Sam
What pitching and hitting stats do you think tell “the whole story”?

Dan Szymborski: Really, if you have OBP, BA, SLG, ERA, FIP, SB, CS, and some defensive thing, you’ve got most of the book written

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there might still be a Qarth storyline that’s going nowhere that Martin couldn’t figure out how to get it to move along, but you’re mostly there

Comment From zack
Is Verlander injured or just fatigued? Velocity down substantially and his ability to throw strikes has decreased.

Dan Szymborski: The drop in velocity does concern me

Dan Szymborski: THough he’s still pitching well enough that hopefully it’s nothing major

Comment From Adam
Assuming some some sort of health, would the Brewers be able to get 2 b prospects for Aramis? If so, do you think that they should move him, or keep him and hope for better things next year?

Dan Szymborski: No, that’s too much. He’s declined, there’s not a lot of time left, and the injury risk would still remain

Comment From Des
Did you agree with the ESPN article Dave did on Cleveland? Using Rayburn as why they can’t sustain this run was poorly researched.

Dan Szymborski: I agree that the Indians have a tough road, but I probably would use a slightly different argument

Comment From east bay
Is Josh Reddick a buy-low candidate in fantasy? Or is Reddick simply done?

Dan Szymborski: Not a fan of Reddick

Dan Szymborski: I think we saw his career year – I thought before it that he’s a 4th outfielder type and I’m not sure that’s wrong anymore

Comment From Steve
Do you think Jonathan Schoop gets a Sept call up?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. They might shut mouthwash down becuase he’s had a stress fracture in his back and they may let him get the extra rest

Comment From zack
Wheeler or Cole longterm? Cole has missed a few less bats, but has thrown a ton more strikes. Do you think Cole is trading K’s for increased command/control?

Dan Szymborski: I still like Wheeler better

Comment From Guest
Considering the weakness of the AL Central and how well the Royals have been playing this month, is it possible we live in a world where Dayton Moore is a genius and we are actually the assholes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but betting on Dayton Moore being a genius doesn’t sound like a great use of funds

:

Comment From Dr. Met
Can we call Farquhar Shrek? not sure if he’s been given a nickname yet

Dan Szymborski: Wait, why shrek?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get.

Comment From Chris
I read over at Camden Depot, that Nate McLouth is having near a career season. Do you think he will get something similar to what Melky got last offseason? Is such a deal for McLouth just as likely to end horrifically as it has for Melky and the Jays?

Dan Szymborski: I can see him getting 8 per. Honestly, 8 million isn’t a lot of money at this point.

Dan Szymborski: 2008 was clearly his career year though

Comment From Northsider
When do you think the next MLB expansion is going to take place? Potential cities?

Dan Szymborski: A l-o-n-g time. The obvious new cities aren’t really all that good options

Dan Szymborski: Vegas would be a really lousy destination, for example. It’s better to use Vegas or Portland as a threat

Dan Szymborski: Long-term, I can see a team in NC, but you can’t just add one team

Comment From Ron W.
What do the Tigers do with Scherzer this offseason? Can they afford to give him an extension?

Dan Szymborski: They can afford it. Ilitch is in win-now mode, for reasons of human biology

Comment From Shoots First
More likely suspended for PEds: Chris Davis or Yasiel Puig?

Dan Szymborski: Davis, not becuase there’s actually any evidence, but he’s had the opportunity to do something with biogenesis or somewhere longer

Comment From Chris
How many pet crocodiles do you have? I promise not to tell Maryland DNR.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have crocodiles! They’d eat my cats!

Comment From steve
How much money (money, not players) would a team have to offer Loria for him to sell Stanton?

Dan Szymborski: Commish will kibosh straight money trade like that

Comment From Sam
So Kurt Suzuki has a terribly low BABIP throughout his career. Is this due to bad contact or is a candidate to bounce back? Does he just suck?

Dan Szymborski: He’s always going to have a fairly low BABIP, somewhere in the 260-270 range

Dan Szymborski: He may be slow and his power has faded, but nobody’s really a .230 BABIP – that’s what pitcher BABIP tends to be around

Comment From Sonny Cheeba
How does ZiPS project defense for MiLB guys?

Dan Szymborski: I have a total zone-ish method with game logs and hit location data, though that’s obviously going to not be accurate as the MLB methods

Dan Szymborski: In one of my wackier successful experiments, I played around with historical scouting reports and found enough correlations to actually have Excel parse out hundreds of keywords

Dan Szymborski: (for example, players that Baseball America historically use the word “excellent” to describe defense averaged +5 UZR/150 over first 3 season in majors)

Comment From Riley
What do you think is wrong withe Reddick this year? He has been pretty bad all year and neither Zips nor Steamer would predict a major improvement.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anything’s wrong with him, I think he’s just a fringe player having a poor year.

Comment From Sam
Is Timmy Lincecum actually underrated or is this just who he is? Does he take a potential Qualifying Offer this winter?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know how to evaluate the guy anymore!

Comment From Scott
Tell me everything you know about Roughed Odor and what he could potentially be in the majors? Worth a stash in dynasty leagues?

Dan Szymborski: Defintiely worth a stash – Rougned Odor has been rocking it in the minors this year and he’s very young

Comment From John
Is Cutch now the NL MVP favorite?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. I’d give it to Gomez, but I don’t think he’s gotten enough buzz of the type to overcome Brewers record

Dan Szymborski: And Arizona languishing is going to hurt Goldy’s shot

Comment From Steve
Who has the better career Giancarlo or Wil Myers?

Dan Szymborski: Giancarlo

Comment From Scott
Who is the best prospect in the TEX system now?

Dan Szymborski: Do we still get to count Profar?

Dan Szymborski: Its a tough call. Olt and Grimm gone, Profar maybe not count. Buckel definitely not

Dan Szymborski: Font probably safer at this point, but I may go with Odor or maybe Sardinas

Comment From Grady
O/U Blue Jays wins in 2014?

Dan Szymborski: 85. I still think they have the core of a team that *could* be good

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Who did you want to see the Indians acquire at the deadline? I’m glad they stood pat and didn’t give away Salazar for 2 months of Javier Lopez, or spend top prospects on a rental (Garza) or gotten Norris given how many back-end starters we already have.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is the Indians lost a little ground, the O’s *did* make marginal improvements as did the Tigers

Dan Szymborski: I would have liked to see the Indians get Lee, but in this fictional world, Ruben Amaro also evaluates his players properly

Dan Szymborski: Which is a *real* fantasy world

Comment From Mike
Beltre is 34 now. Can he keep this level of performance for two more seasons?

Dan Szymborski: Given his age, I’ll still expect some deterioration, but nothing that would make him not terrific

Comment From Shark Mapiro
Predict Alex Rodriguez’s box score line for tonight:

Dan Szymborski: 1-for-4, 1 K

Dan Szymborski: a single

Comment From person
Last week the talk was how MLB was going to use the best interests clause to hammer ARod, so that he couldn’t appeal … and nary a peep from the MLBPA. Now all of a sudden it’s going to be a drug suspension that he can appeal, because MLB is worried about a fight? Am I the only one having flashbacks to Selig at the All Star Game tie, looking like he’s got no clue at all?

Dan Szymborski: MLB was bluffing, plain and simple.

Dan Szymborski: They have a very, very poor success rate at punishing players off-CBA

Dan Szymborski: Notice that as soon as A-Rod’s camp started to make serious public noise about fighting instead, MLB’s publicly started hinting at the safer options

Comment From Eminor3rd
Can/will the Player’s Union or the owners push back against the MLB for the heinous handling of the Biogenesis situation (sitch-you-ay-shee-UN)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to be tough. I hate to pick on a guy who’s struggling with a terminal disease, but Michael Weiner has been more Ken Moffett than Marvin Miller

Dan Szymborski: The owners are *always* looking for a chance to split the union and you need some serious leadership to keep the union together and sell some of the hardliners in the union on the fact that there are bigger issues in play than just the drugs

Comment From zack
Better longterm: Smoak or Hosmer?

Dan Szymborski: Still Hosmer, though it’s nice to see Smoak be in the land of the living this eyar

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Scott Feldman rest of season: Ugh!, meh, or yeah!?

Dan Szymborski: Meh. But honestly, the O’s needed some meh in the rotation.

Comment From Justin
Why is Loria lambasted for selling off veterans to rebuild with prospects, while the Phillies are mocked for refusing to do the same thing?

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s little reason to think Loria is doing it for baseball reasons

Dan Szymborski: Amaro’s a doofus, but at least he cares about the team winning rather than the team winning if it doesn’t interfere with the bottom line too much

Dan Szymborski: And fact is, Loria *said* that the new stadium would lead to investment of the team.

Dan Szymborski: Now, Miami was pretty stupid, but you can still feel bad for them

Comment From Eminor3rd
Are you going to make a Biogenesis-themed MS Paint drawing?

Dan Szymborski: I did have a steroid-fueled drawing a couple of years ago

Dan Szymborski: That’s actually one I don’t think I’ve posted

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Comment From The Oriole Bird
If you opened your ZiPS thingie, do the Springer thang.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll get Springer fter, I just have the team thing open

Dan Szymborski: Which reminds me. Rangers!

Dan Szymborski: OK, I have the loss of Cruz dropping Rangers from 62% to 56%

Comment From Alex
Oh look! Some suspensions happened!

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, that means time to go for me!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joing me guys, hope to see you all next week!~

Dan Szymborski: No spiel – writing time