Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/14
11:59 |
: Salt peanuts.
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11:59 |
: First things first, our usual president-related business.
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11:59 |
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11:59 |
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12:00 |
how crazy would it be if KC fired yost in the next week or so |
12:01 |
: It would be a little weird. It’s not as if he’s anything new. It’s like someone who suddenly decides to stop burning his hand on the stove every morning for 4 years because it hurts. Well, why’d you stop now? Didn’t it hurt before?
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12:01 |
Do you see the Braves making any major changes after a very disappointing season? |
12:02 |
: No, it’s not an organization that makes bold, aggressive changes like that
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12:02 |
Johnson, are you kidding? |
12:03 |
: Uh oh, CiL issues
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12:03 |
: Wait, it hangs while I publish a comment and but I can type my own comments just fine? WTF CiL?
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12:03 |
: Let me try restarting the interface
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12:04 |
I’m not defending the guy, just curious about your opinion: Tactically, how many currently-employed MLB managers are clearly better than Ned Yost? |
12:04 |
: OK, that seems to be better.
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12:04 |
: Yost is my least favorite manager, so all of ’em.
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12:04 |
Does NYY take on another $200+ mil in obligations this offseason? |
12:05 |
: Honestly? No idea. The Yankees have been so weird – they kinda screwed up last season by refusing to go over a number and then suddenly deciding that they can go over after all, missing out on other needs. They got Tanaka, but the offseason was a giant mishandle
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12:05 |
Who SHOULD win the ROY? And to you, who MOST likely will? DeGrom has been fantastic. Do you think he’s for real (number 2 starter)? Or will he end up as a number three for a bad to okay rotation? |
12:05 |
: I think Hamilton’s probably had the best year and I think he’ll get it
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12:05 |
Do you see the Pirates taking a step back next year due to some key players (Martin & Liriano especially) hitting FA? |
12:06 |
: A little bit, Martin’s not super easy to replace. Honestly, they likely have to replace Martin’s production even if they bring him back – he’s a catcher on the wrong side of 30 and he’s got a 140ish OPS+ with a career of around 100
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12:07 |
is pedroia on the verge of a collapse? |
12:07 |
: I don’t think so. He’s likely got aways to go before climbing the cliffs of insanity.
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12:07 |
Yasmani Thomas, over/under $90 mil this offseason? |
12:07 |
: Over, I think.
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12:07 |
I moved to Baltimore in 1998….finally getting to see the Orioles do the the Yankees and Red Soxs what they always did to the Orioles! So satisfying. |
12:07 |
: It is.
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12:07 |
Which are more trustworthy/accurate, the PITCHf/x or BIS plate discipline numbers? |
12:08 |
: It’s hard to tell without a number to compare it to. Otherwise, I’d have to go by methodology and they both seem like they’ve got decen systems.
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12:08 |
Unless by bold you mean overpaying for BJ. That was pretty bold, right? |
12:08 |
: I faulted the Braves for his use this year, but I still think that contract was perfectly reasonable at the time.
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12:10 |
If the stories are to be believed, LBJ could fight off GHWB with a third appendage (and I’m not talking one of his legs) |
12:10 |
: Let’s not forget, Bush was a navy pilot so had at least some fighting training i’m sure
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12:11 |
: I’m surprised LBJ’s beating Bush, personally, but the word of the chat is the result.
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12:11 |
Will Gio Gonzalez be in the Nationals playoff rotation? |
12:11 |
: No
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12:11 |
Based on your experience in fantasy, what do you think is the most important thing that other players undervalue the most? In other words, what is the Moneyball strategy for succeeding in fantasy? |
12:12 |
: Not a particular stat, but more of a philosophical thing. I think people sometimes fall into a trap of evaluating players in fantasy as they do in real life. There’s obviously a relationship, but there’s stuff valued in fantasy that’s not in MLB and vice versa
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12:13 |
Mariners should be at least a little concerned they went 2-4 at home when they really needed to dig into division rivals. Yet they’re only a game out of the 2nd wildcard, so it’s not over. If you are a Mariners fan, are you a) gleeful because your team exceeded expectations, b) dreadful because you think, despite being good, they could really lose to anyone or c) concerned but optimistic because they’re at least as good as any of the other teams vying for the 2nd wildcard spot? |
12:13 |
: The Mariners should be very concerned, simply becuase they’ve got a tough schedule.
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12:13 |
The other day, it occurred to me that Mike Trout’s first two seasons, in which he accrued 20+ wins, was worth about 2 weeks of A-Rod’s 2013 DL stint. I get that these are outliers of outliers and all, but it’s still funny to me, the difference between draft picks and free agents |
12:14 |
Apparently they are making Surge again. I miss the 90’s Dan. It was a simpler, yet better time. |
12:14 |
: You didn’t even know the 90s Dan!
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12:14 |
: WTF CiL?
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12:15 |
: Now it’s eating comments grrrr
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12:15 |
: I couldn’t even buy alcohol through most of hte 90s!
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12:15 |
: Oh, there’s a comma there. Honestly, I thought Surge was awful.
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12:15 |
: Not Mountain Dew awful, but pretty bad.
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12:16 |
: In the citrus-y soda category, I really only like 7-Up. Cleaner than the other ones.
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12:17 |
Please fill in the blanks: Chris Sale *should* win the AL Cy Young if his WAR ends up within __ of Hernandez and Kluber. Chris Sale *will* win the Cy Young if his ERA is below __. |
12:17 |
: fart nugget, scrotum
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12:17 |
Are you aware the the NLCS is on Fox sports 1? I have 200 channels and FS! isnt one of them |
12:17 |
: Shoot, I better check and see if I have it. I honestly don’t know!
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12:17 |
Using Chief Wahoo as a baseline of 100% racist, how racist is the Tomahawk Chop by comparison?? |
12:17 |
: 88%
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12:18 |
HW Bush was actually captain of Yale’s Baseball/soccer teams, so he’s got that going for him. |
12:18 |
Would you stream Stroman @ BAL (Chen) over Minor vNYM (Niese)? |
12:18 |
: I believe I would.
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12:20 |
: I think so. Even assuming Shoemaker keeps pitching as he has (well, before last couple of less inspiring starts) it’s likely the weakest playoff rotation. Definitely in the AL.
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12:20 |
: Oh goody, my answer goes up before CiL feels like making the post
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12:20 |
Do you think Scioscia will have the shortest leash on his starters in the postseason? |
12:21 |
Yankees 2015 rotation without Lester/Shields/Scherzer/League Average pickup or two: Yankees 2015 rotation without signing Lester/Shields/Scherzer/League Average starter or two: Tanaka, Nova, Pineda, Greene, Sabathia. Would Signing McCarthy and one of the above make them the best in baseball? I get that people said that about the 2014 rotation, but lightning tends not to strike twice, right? Right? Right? |
12:21 |
: I don’t think adding one of any available pitcher and McCarthy makes the Yankee rotation the best in baseball.
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12:22 |
: All of tanaka/Nova/Pineda/Green/Sabathia have big question marks.
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12:22 |
: Even Tanaka – we don’t really *know* if he’ll actually avoid TJ surgery
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12:23 |
: 4/5 of that named non-FA rotation has major injury question marks.
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12:23 |
![]() Nectar of the gods. |
12:23 |
: I dislike Mountain Dew.
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12:24 |
Is Kendrys bad or, being a middling athlete to start with, he just wasn’t able to overcome sustained inactivity this free agent season? |
12:24 |
: I think he’s just having a bad year. Even coming back injured players aren’t even that bad usually
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12:25 |
I see Micheal “Almost Mike Trout” Brantley is back towards the top of the leaderboards now. |
12:25 |
Real Sugar in any non-Coke soda is pretty awful. Mountain Dew is suppose to be syrupy and sweet |
12:26 |
: Again, yuck. I like soda that goes down clean, Mountain Dew, after you drink it, you’re unsure if that’s phlegm in your throat or not
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12:26 |
: If you took Slimer from Ghostbusters and blend him and drink him, that’s Mountain Dew
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12:27 |
Without checking, guess where the Jays rotation ranks in fWAR? |
12:28 |
: Middle of the pack? An upgrade would have still been awesome, but they weren’t really as dreadful as some thought
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12:28 |
Mountain Dew or Crab Juice? |
12:28 |
: I’m from Baltimore, so crab juice obviously
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12:28 |
If you keep up this Mountain Dew talk, you will need to rename this the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Slander. |
12:28 |
: Also, I think something’s wrong with CiL becuase my question volume is 10% of what it normally is
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12:29 |
maybe nobody likes you anymore |
12:29 |
: I would think that would be a slow slope of declining like, rather than all of a sudden.
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12:30 |
: I’ve been an internet baseball jerk for more than 15 years, so I don’t think there’s a particular reason to stop liking me now.
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12:30 |
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12:30 |
: I remember that! I always got Hi-C boxes because I hated the Capri Sun pouches. I just could not get into the pouch without the straw going straight through the back of the pouch
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12:30 |
What happens to Daniel Nava next year in Boston? |
12:31 |
: I think he hangs around a sa role player
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12:31 |
Does ZiPS use UZR or DRS (or some combination) for defense projections? |
12:31 |
: Combination, plus for minor leaguers, I have a total zone-ish system that I combine with scouting report parsing.
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12:31 |
: A few years ago, I did research on the predictive defensive value of adjectives in scouting reports.
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12:32 |
Nevermind if, should Roger Goodell stay on as Commish? Who has more investigative resources, a multi-billion dollar entertainment corporation, or TMZ? |
12:32 |
: Of course, it’s not so much a question of resources, but the willingness to use it
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12:33 |
: Not saying excusable, but I think the NFL likes to be a little ignorant until they’re forced to pay attention
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12:34 |
In the coming Fangraphs stage production of The Wire, who are you going to play, Avon or String? |
12:34 |
: Dunno, Bunk Moreland?
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12:34 |
: Or maybe Prop Joe?
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12:35 |
: Though I’d probably end up being Frank Sobotka as I’m balding, white, and part polish
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12:35 |
: Though my bald situation is better than Chris Bauer’s
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12:35 |
Start Strasburg tonight? He hasn’t been great on the road, particularly against ATL? |
12:35 |
: I’d still start him
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12:35 |
Would it surprise you at all if Trout changed his approach again for next year? |
12:35 |
: No, some players tinker more than others
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12:36 |
The Orioles will have Wieters and Machado back next year, but they have been doing this with retreads and an average-at-best rotation. Are they the division winner most likely to regress next year? |
12:36 |
: I think they’ll regress a bit – probably somehwat of an 85-win team.
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12:36 |
: A good team, but without a lot of megastar power, so they need to have really good secondary contributions, which aren’t always a given
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12:37 |
the nfl turns a bline eye to PEDS, except for 1 or 2 players per year in order to avoid people taking notice |
12:37 |
: Pretty much. MLB can’t get away with a tenth the rap that NFL does
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12:38 |
Any truth to the idea that improvement in O’s pitching has been due to switch from Wieters at C to Joseph/Hundley? Joseph, at least, seems like a much better pitch framer. |
12:38 |
: I’d want data before I’d make any kind of statement like that
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12:38 |
: Too easy to look at results and find a storyline that fits them
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12:38 |
The NFL turns a blind eye to PEDS because the human body cannot reasonably do what a modern linebacker does without taking PEDS in some form at some point. |
12:38 |
: Pretty much
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12:39 |
Would you dare start AJ Burnett (@SD & @Oak) two starts this week, or would you rather Morton at home versus BoSox & Brewers? |
12:39 |
: Think I’d go with Morton
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12:39 |
With success of Joseph, and unlikeliness of resigning Weiters, think they put him on the market? |
12:39 |
: They should at least attempt to, see what he can get
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12:39 |
Could use a little support Dan. Arguing with some folks that the only way Ben Cherington got Joe Kelly was by taking on Craig’s contract. I think they’re nuts, right? |
12:40 |
: I dunno, Kelly does have some upside left.
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12:41 |
: Kelly’s wierd in that he has the stats of a mediocre nibbler, not a guy with a nasty, lively fastball and little command
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12:41 |
: Usually, those guys will at least strike out batters while walking a ton
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12:41 |
Steve Pearce: diamond in the rough or flukey-good? |
12:42 |
: Probably a good role player having his best season
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12:42 |
My take is, Goodell is never going to have the capital he had before Rice. I don’t know that Goodell really can go 180 degrees and ban anyone remotely accused of domestic violence without taking piss from the union, he’s going to go light on someone who ends up being guilty at some point, and he’s going to take more flack. In the next five to ten years, when the data on concussions gets firmed up, the NFL is going to look like the aigrette companies, turning a blind eye or worse to clear evidence of severe danger. Goodell is not going to have the capital he needs to weather that. |
12:42 |
Is ervin santana out of gas? |
12:42 |
: He’s been very erratic – he’s really more or less a #3 type when it comes down to it
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12:43 |
Start Ervin tonight? facing WAS and got crushed last start against them. |
12:43 |
: Depends what the alternate is. I’d probably avoid it if I could
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12:43 |
Does Stanton garner sympathy votes due to his current broken face situation, or is Kershaw the runaway MVP? |
12:44 |
: Pitcher MVPs are really weird in that there’s little objective data that points to which pitchers will get MVP votes and which won’t. Pitchers have to get buzz to get MVP votes.
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12:44 |
: Based on the ESPN panelist (about half of us picked him for MVP), I think Kershaw will get significant support and is possibly the favorite.
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12:44 |
: I think any Stanton sympathy vote would be canceled out by the reduced numbers when they sit down and vote on him
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12:44 |
Couldn’t the NFL end all of it’s woes if it just said “We’ll allow the legal system and teams to take care of these types of problems”? Josh Leuke is hated, but still plays baseball. Matt Bush bounced around several teams after beating a high school kid with a golf club(on video),assaulting a woman at a party,..several DUIs before he end up in prison. Nobody blamed Selig. |
12:44 |
: That’s what they should have done from the start.
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12:45 |
: Then they’d have an excuse to not get involved every time something like this happens.
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12:45 |
: But once you wade in, people expect you to not be arbitrary and not lie.
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12:45 |
Have you noticed the trend of people on Twitter angrily tweeting at sports writers for tweeting about baseball during football season? |
12:45 |
: I have not, I’ve actually seen more of the reverse.
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12:46 |
Any news on Wacha and the Cards’ plans for him? |
12:46 |
: They’re being careful and taking a wait-and-see approach as Wacha’s still not feeling comfortable
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12:46 |
Why were people concluding that Stanton would win the MVP? Sure he has HRs but Cutch had the better wRC+ and wOBA on a playoff team. Is it the bad team surprising isn’t awful story line? |
12:47 |
NO Goodell supporter here. But the reason he is doing player discipline, is that his bosses wanted him to do it. That way they are not forced to take unpopular stances against their own players. |
12:47 |
: Dammit, more eaten replies.
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12:47 |
: Shorter version: HRs win MVPs.
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12:48 |
Do you think arbitrary nature of NFL’s personal conduct policy was more a result of PR considerations of “fuck the players’ union” considerations? |
12:48 |
: This chat’s slowing down and I think a lot of comments/questions are being eating in the aether.
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12:49 |
: So feel free to chime in with non-baseball Qs as I’m running out actual baseball Qs. Don’t know why, I usually can only answer about 20% of questions
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12:49 |
: Typically by this point, I’m still answer questions from 1215-1220 or so!
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12:49 |
While we’re ranting about PEDS, can I mention that we’ve had synthetic Testosterone longer than we’ve had a viable synthesized form of penicillin, that steroids in sports started with the 1950’s Olympic weightlifting team, and that anyone who thinks Bonds, Bash Brothers and Co. started the influence of steroids in sports is being totally irrational? |
12:49 |
: And of course Tom House admitted taking steroids and said his teammates did when he was with the Braves in the early 70s.
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12:50 |
Do you think AJ Pollock’s bat is real? He looks the same before and after injury and I don’t see anything that screams regression. |
12:50 |
Do you buy AJ Pollock’s bat this year? Potential all-star next few years? |
12:50 |
: i think he’s made improvement, but some is likely to come off the BABIP
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12:51 |
: Triples are also a young man’s game – they steeply decline through the 20s
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12:51 |
Who’s gonna play McNulty? |
12:51 |
: I would initially think one of the Daves as McNulty’s kinda the center-most character
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12:52 |
: But Cameron doesn’t drink and Appelman doesn’t seem the McNulty tipe
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12:52 |
: Did I just write tipe instead of type?
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12:53 |
: Cistulli or Sullivan maybe?
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12:53 |
Eno is McNulty no doubt |
12:53 |
: Eno may be the best choice.
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12:53 |
By the by, thanks as always for your time Dan. These chats are always awesome, and we know your time is valuable |
12:53 |
: Not *that* valuable considering how much time I spend doing goofy things.
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12:53 |
Have you played Spelunky? |
12:53 |
: Haven’t yet
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12:53 |
Can we request more Hearthstone cards? I know you feel the joke was beating down, but we could use a resurgence! |
12:53 |
: At some point, maybe as they reach next expansion.
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12:54 |
: I still play a lot of Hearthstone, but as you note, I feel the joke had run its course for the time being
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12:54 |
Rank the seasons in order of intro: |
12:54 |
My list: 1, 3, 5, 2, 4 |
12:54 |
: I actually dont’ have all the renditions memorized!
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12:54 |
I can be McNulty. I am talented arrogant alcoholic who loves to hate authority. |
12:54 |
Who’s the worst team in the majors, record-wise, next season? |
12:54 |
: Phillies
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12:54 |
Bryce Harper = Adam Dunn. Discuss. |
12:55 |
: That’s a little premature considering how Harper is still extremely young. Though I should note Adam Dunn was a really solid player for awhile
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12:55 |
Next year josh Harrison is up for arbitration. Would you give a long term deal or not? Sure he can’t keep this up but…? |
12:55 |
: I’d hold off on offering a deal
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12:55 |
What does Matheny gain and lose with the insert-Grichuk-for-Taveras-after-the-7th inning tactic? Is this a case of overmanaging? Or do the numbers support this shenanigan? |
12:55 |
: Matheny is a classic overmanager, I think
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12:55 |
Speaking of the NFL, Why is the MLBPA so strong compared to other sports unions? I imagine a player strike in the NFL would cause literal riots in the streets and billions of dollars of lost business. |
12:56 |
: They had good organization. Miller was an excellent leader.
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12:56 |
: As we get farther from Miller/Fehr, we’ve seen the MLBPA’s resolve decline.
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12:56 |
the correct answer is season 4. |
12:56 |
Can the Astros get to 500 next year? |
12:57 |
: It’s a possibility, but I expect that their next step is to the mid-70s or so. They’re a couple years behind the Cubs
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12:57 |
: The Cubs got to start their rebuilding in a better place than the Astros did
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12:58 |
: When Epstein looked over, the Cubs looked like a convenience store cleared out before a snowstorm. The Astros, when Luhnow took over, looked like that convenience store that was hit by a tactical nuke.
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12:58 |
have you ever played the Sima? Excited for Sims 4 or Destiny? |
12:58 |
: Sims 4 shoudl be fun. While I’m interested in Destiny and it looks cool, I’m not playing a FPS on a console, period.
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12:58 |
: Unless it’s Goldeneye.
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12:58 |
The Phillies!?!?!? B-b-b-b-butttt Uncle Amaro said he thinks we can compete next year!!! Wahhhh!!!! |
12:58 |
: Uncle Ruben says a lot of things.
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12:59 |
How come you don’t have a vote for the Fangraphs Player of the Year Award? |
12:59 |
: I’m not a member of the FanGraphs staff.
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12:59 |
You’re not a member of the Fangraphs staff!?!?! |
1:01 |
: My contract is with ESPN. They’ve been super cool giving me some leeway to do chats and store projections at FG.
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1:02 |
: And the Davids have been cool too, not even asking anything that would put me in an awkward spot.
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1:02 |
Got offered Josh Harrison for Aaron Sanchez in my dynasty league, should I do it? |
1:02 |
: I wouldn’t
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1:02 |
What do you think the Jays need to do to compete next year? |
1:02 |
: Punch everybody at Rogers
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1:02 |
Are you excited for Civ:Beyond Earth? I’m afraid it will just be a Civ 5 mod that costs $60. |
1:03 |
: I’m intrigued, though I don’t generally care for space settings as much. I enjoyed Alpha Centauri, but I didn’t play the hell out of Alpha Centauri like I did the Civilization games.
|
1:03 |
: And of *course* it’s an Alpha Centauri sequel. Don’t insult our intelligence, publisher.
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1:03 |
I got drunk and took the over bet on a George Springer HR line of 39.5 next year. My fantasy team loyalties are getting the best of me. |
1:03 |
: For over/under/ You’re crazy.
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1:04 |
Can Carson play Marlo? Please? |
1:04 |
: I had tiny speck of something and I thought at first that was “Can Carson play Mario.” Which would be amusing
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1:04 |
Baez’s zone contact rate is not awful, not good, but not awful (on par with jd martinez and corey dickerson). His o-contact and o-swing are awful. Can players learn how to pickup pitches and improve those numbers while in the show or is he destined for 40% K% forever. |
1:04 |
: Players can make some progress in strikeouts, but drastic changes are fairly unusual
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1:05 |
Besides Oakland/Tampa (the only two absolute dumps left), what MLB team gets a new stadium next? |
1:05 |
: Atlanta 🙂
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1:05 |
what’s your take on how defense should be counted in WAR? regressed? some given to play, some put into an “other” bucket? average UZR and DRS? |
1:05 |
: I would regress it. I believe, like one-year park factors, that the noise is significant enough that we should be skeptical about the short-term magnitude
|
1:05 |
Are you aware that your last name makes you sound super cool? |
1:06 |
: Szymborski sounds cool? Never heard that before.
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1:06 |
: Maybe if I was like Dan Steel or something.
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1:06 |
What % does username have to do with whether a question is selected? |
1:06 |
: None, I try to not even look at the name.
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1:06 |
Last week, you streamed chat on Twitch. Which video games do you watch on twitch? |
1:06 |
: Hearthstone, some other random ones
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1:06 |
fyi, 40% k rate forever at MLB level is unprecedented. Cubs fans should be worried. |
1:06 |
: It probably won’t be *that* extreme.
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1:07 |
: But he’ll stay a high strikeout player I’m sure
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1:07 |
Rank this year’s Brewer’s collapse all time. Detroit or As if they miss the POs. Worse than Pittsburgh’s collapse of 2011,2012? |
1:08 |
: Detroit or A’s worse.
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1:08 |
: The thing about the Brewers is that projections *always* though they were a slightly below .500 roster, even after the second week of the season
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1:08 |
: And that’s how they’ve played more or less. They peaked at what, 6 game lead in June? Losing that isn’t terrible horrific
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1:09 |
Re: Fantasty vs. reality. Chris Carter is an awful baseball player in real life, but in fantasy, 35 bombs is god-like nowadays |
1:09 |
DotA or LoL? |
1:10 |
: I’m not really into that genre.
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1:10 |
: There’s too much not doing anything and powering up by timing attacks on creeps.
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1:11 |
Dan – is your printed ligament idea something folks are working on or theoretical at this point? |
1:11 |
: Well, they’re working on organs and stuff, but I do expect it to happen
|
1:11 |
: In 30 years, I expect a significant percentage of pitchers to have artificial UCLs
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1:12 |
Green or Red? |
1:12 |
: Apples? No preference. Food? I prefer red meat to greens.
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1:12 |
Which teams stand to be the most improved next year? Red Sox? Rangers? Also, which teams are close to heading off a cliff? I think the Tigers. |
1:13 |
: Rangers should have a good comeback even if they have a lousy season.
|
1:13 |
: Had a piece on it on ESPN. If ZiPS knew the exact composition of playing time, ZiPS would have projected Texas to go 65-97 rather than the 88-74 it did predict.
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1:13 |
in terms of collapge… has every forgot about the sox a few years ago… |
1:13 |
: Now *that* was a quality collapse.
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1:13 |
What position do you expect Franco to land at for 2015? Is he an opening day starter? |
1:13 |
: I don’t think he’s an opening day starter and I doubt the Phillies have an idea what they’re going to do with him
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1:14 |
: On that note, we’ll end this for the week.
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1:15 |
ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter and other places.
: As usual, you can find my work on |
1:15 |
: Hopefully the interface will be more cooperative next week – I had to refresh it about a dozen times when comments got stuck.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
oh god, not the O’s are due to regress silliness again…
When a team plays better than its talent level, those “due to regress” comments are certain to come. And the odds are they’re right.
3d-printed bone and spine spacers and hips have been implanted (and 1 bladder, I believe). Livers and Kidneys are under intensive development–though approval to implant will probably be a several year process. ligaments? Ought to be much easier than kidneys and livers, though not as lucrative/essential so not top priority right now.