Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/16/13
| 11:58 |
: And we are live
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| 11:58 |
: Well, technically close to live, you see what I type after it’s already been typed
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| 11:59 |
: So essentially, I’m speaking to you from the past.
|
| 11:59 |
: Just the very close past.
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| 11:59 |
If Mo stopped by your house on his farewell tour, what would you give him as a present? |
| 11:59 |
: I’m not sure I have anything he wants.
|
| 12:00 |
: How about some of those awesome wood-paneled 1987 Topps and a wicked windmill high-five?
|
| 12:00 |
: He *has* beaten the O’s quite a bit and I don’t want to give him too much of an award
|
| 12:00 |
: He certainly doesn’t need a sack of gold or anything.
|
| 12:00 |
Can you use ZIPS to estimate how much players should get in Free Agency? |
| 12:00 |
: Yes, and i frequently do!
|
| 12:00 |
: Had a Cano piece last month doing it.
|
| 12:00 |
Why are the cardinals still favored over the Pirates? |
| 12:02 |
: The teams are tied, but there are very good reasons to think that the Cardinals are the stronger team.
|
| 12:03 |
: The Cardinals also have a slightly easier schedule, with only 3 games left against winning teams and the Pirates with 6
|
| 12:03 |
how do you think cigriani’s career plays out from here? |
| 12:04 |
: I think to really hit his upside, he’s going to need to have a bigger arsenal
|
| 12:04 |
: His fastball is very tough to hit, but except for knucklers, guys don’t usually have a lot of sucess mostly throwing 1 pitch
|
| 12:04 |
: starters that is
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| 12:05 |
: Mo’s made a career off his cutter, but it’s a very open question how much that would work throwing 6 innings a game instead of 1
|
| 12:06 |
: Cingrani’s got a loopyc urveball with potential, but I’m not sure if he changes speeds well enough to hit his upside yet
|
| 12:07 |
Qualifying offer by the Indians for Ubaldo? |
| 12:07 |
: Assuming it comes to that (the $8 million option is mutual? don’t have it in front of me) they should
|
| 12:07 |
: You can overpay a pitcher when it’s only a 1-year contract.
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| 12:08 |
: The market is not overflowing with awesome pitchers. 1 year, $14 million or so would be an excellent result for the Indians
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| 12:08 |
How close are the ROS projections to the offseason projections? |
| 12:08 |
: Not super close – in-season regression is smaller than season-to-season regression for one thing
|
| 12:09 |
Hello Daniel |
| 12:09 |
I may not always love you |
| 12:09 |
Just so you know its totally okay if you take the next month off to play GTA V. |
| 12:09 |
Who will the Indians be playing in the wild card game? |
| 12:09 |
: I’ve got an odds piece going up in ESPN in the very near future.
|
| 12:09 |
Any reasons for hope that next season will be better for the Jays…? |
| 12:10 |
: They still have a lot of the pieces, many just haven’t worked out that well this year. But they’re not hopeless.
|
| 12:10 |
: Jays do need to figure if they’re going to fold or double-down
|
| 12:10 |
: I’m still optimistic about some of those guys. That Melky was playing with a tumor causing leg weakness at least makes one more optimistic about his 2014
|
| 12:11 |
: Though generally speaking, if you have pain in your back to the extent that your legs aren’t working, you should probably not wait months to mention it
|
| 12:11 |
Pick two for the next week: Kemp, Bourn, Aoki |
| 12:12 |
: Probably Kemp and Bourn. The Dodgers don’t apepar to be rushing Kemp back and Aoki’s a better real-life than fantasy guy
|
| 12:12 |
Does Ron Washington survive this collapse two years in a row? |
| 12:12 |
: If the Rangers collapse, I think he’s toast.
|
| 12:12 |
: GMs generally get 1 sacrificial manager. Sometimes 2, but they usually get 1.
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| 12:13 |
: (Showalter doesn’t really count as he was a carryover for Daniels)
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| 12:13 |
Playoff odds had some massive changes in the last couple days. In particular, the Red Sox going from 30% WS% to 18% while on a torrid streak makes me think you guys changed something. Do you know if this was a change in methodology or something like a zips update? |
| 12:13 |
: No idea. Those are FG estimated odds, not the official ZiPS ones.
|
| 12:14 |
: Anyone can use ZiPS, but I have my own set of Monte Carlo simulations
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| 12:14 |
: With 2 weeks left, I’m also using the version that includes actual pitcher vs. pitcher matchup estimations
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| 12:15 |
Expectations for Josmil Pinto next year and thereafter? Will he stick at catcher? Do you see he and Mauer splitting time at C and DH next year (with some PT at 1B for Mauer)? |
| 12:15 |
: He’ll definitely get a lot of time at catcher. He was kind of under the radar as his defense has not received rave reviews in the minors
|
| 12:15 |
: But the Twins want to Mauer to play fewer games at catcher and they don’t have a lot of great options.
|
| 12:15 |
: To put it gently
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| 12:16 |
Gordon Beckham‘s fate after a dismal 2nd half crushed a solid 1st half? |
| 12:16 |
: Essentially his 5th fullish season, so at this point, the pedigree is kind of meaningless. He is what he is, a stopgap infielder, probably nothing more
|
| 12:17 |
: Now, he can be a good role player, kind of a Mark Lewis type, but his chances of really being a plus are quite low now
|
| 12:17 |
do you think Ramos will be a top-10 catcher (at least by WAR) next season? |
| 12:18 |
: Yup. There were reasons to love him after 2011 and while he’s not the most scientific hitter, it appears he’s over his issues
|
| 12:18 |
Who would you rather sign this offseason, Ubaldo or Kazmir? |
| 12:18 |
: Ubaldo. He’ll at least give you innings.
|
| 12:19 |
: The Indians have been treating Kazmir as gingerly as they can
|
| 12:19 |
: And Kazmir’s not the most efficient guy – he’s got a ton of 5/6 inning starts over 100 pitches
|
| 12:20 |
Some push for Matt Carpenter as an NL MVP candidate lately. You buying? |
| 12:20 |
: It’s not preposterous, but I think McCutchen’s clearly been better
|
| 12:21 |
T or F, 95 wins is enough to win the NL central outright? |
| 12:21 |
: Neither
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| 12:21 |
: Looking at the most recent Monte Carlo run, the average NL Central winner had 95.02 wins.
|
| 12:22 |
: but that ain’t a guarantee
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| 12:22 |
Why do high flyball lefties seem to often defy FIP? |
| 12:22 |
: Southpaw magic!
|
| 12:22 |
: Usually good control.
|
| 12:23 |
: But it’s hard to gauge, I’m not sure the difference is *that* big – junkbally righties sometimes beat FIP for awhile too
|
| 12:23 |
do you think cody asche can be a decent every day player or good role player moving forward? |
| 12:23 |
: I think he’s got a good shot at being a legitimate every day guy
|
| 12:24 |
: The big problem is that he has competition
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| 12:27 |
: sorry, phone!
|
| 12:27 |
: And the Phils might do something dumb
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| 12:28 |
Maybe you could put that to Mo when he pops round for his gift? Or take him to the sandlot and get him to throw 100 pitches at you? |
| 12:28 |
: So that I miss 100 times? No thanks
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| 12:30 |
Last winter the Blue Jays owned all the best moves. That didn’t work out well. Who will own this winter? |
| 12:32 |
: Well, that’s hard to say until the winter happens!
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| 12:32 |
Who would you take at 2B between Franklin and Ackley? |
| 12:32 |
: Probably Franklin at this point
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| 12:32 |
How many more years will Zips project Trout as the best player in baseball? |
| 12:32 |
: Forever and forever
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| 12:33 |
What are the odds that Greg Holland is a mystical wizard? |
| 12:33 |
: OK, I’m off the phone, sorry guys
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| 12:34 |
: How often does he say behold in a low pitched, powerful voice?
|
| 12:34 |
: And I guess it depends on what wizards he would be.
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| 12:34 |
: For example, to be a Tolkien wizard, the White and the Gray/White guy are accounted for
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| 12:34 |
: And I don’t think he’s Radagast the Brown. I guess he could be one of those blue wizards Pallandio and Alatar or something like that that went missing
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| 12:35 |
: I gues she does wear blue
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| 12:35 |
As an O’s fan, should I be optimistic about Schoop? Based purely on minor league numbers, I’m underwhelmed. Robert Andino 2.0? |
| 12:36 |
: Could very well be Andino, but he’s also young enough that a mediocre injury also ruined by back problems isn’t too much to hold against him
|
| 12:36 |
: But he’s a wait and see guy at this point.
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| 12:36 |
: And even then, his minor league numbers don’t look great
|
| 12:36 |
: But he’s also in the sane number AAA league that had like 4.25 runs/game
|
| 12:37 |
: As opposed to the Crazytown league that scored nearly 5
|
| 12:37 |
: (PCL)
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| 12:37 |
Have you tried FFXIV yet? |
| 12:37 |
: Yup, big improvements over the initial one
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| 12:37 |
: I was ambivalent at first, but so far have enjoyed it.
|
| 12:37 |
: (I’m on Brynhildr server)
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| 12:37 |
Will this year’s edition of the dictionary have a picture of Ubaldo Jimenez next to the definition of “contract year”? |
| 12:37 |
: You know what I don’t get?
|
| 12:37 |
: WHERE ARE YOU GETTING THESE PICTURE DICTIONARIES?
|
| 12:37 |
: mine are all text.
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| 12:38 |
: I once got kicked out of Barnes and NOble trying to find a dictionary with a picture of Ruben Amaro Jr. next to hapless.
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| 12:39 |
: All I found was happenstance and other words around there
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| 12:39 |
Ubaldo option: supposedly it became mutual once he was traded…. supposedly |
| 12:39 |
: Yeah, I thought it was mutual
|
| 12:39 |
: because there’s no erason for him to want it
|
| 12:39 |
Any chance the Jays sign McCann and send exile JPA to the Yukon on an iceberg? |
| 12:40 |
: I’m a big fan of sending players out to sea on ice floes, but they’ve had a stubborn unwillingness to do something about Aaron Cibia
|
| 12:40 |
: It would be a good fit, if the Jays go the double-down route
|
| 12:40 |
What do you think the Red Sox do with six starters already for next season (Clay, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, Lackey, Demspter)? Doubront has the most trade value, right? |
| 12:40 |
: Probably
|
| 12:41 |
: Though given injury issues, I expect they keep all of them and have Doubront in a swing spot
|
| 12:41 |
Keep a slightly expensive Vogelsong or a cheap Petit for next year? |
| 12:41 |
: Depends on what they do with Timmeh
|
| 12:42 |
: The team doesn’t seem all that interested in Surkamp
|
| 12:42 |
Are there any teams you expect to surprise some people by being big buyers in free agency or trades this offseason? |
| 12:43 |
: I think KC might do a surprise signing
|
| 12:43 |
: They’re not likely to make the playoffs and the worst thing for Dayton Moore’s future employment would be for the 2013 Royals to be the high-water mark after years and years and years of rebuilding
|
| 12:44 |
Is Moises Sierra a better than average everyday ballplayer? |
| 12:44 |
: I wouldn’t say that, at least not yet. His minor league record is underwhelming
|
| 12:44 |
Which position player could, hypothetically, throw the hardest fastball? |
| 12:44 |
: Brendan Ryan maybe?
|
| 12:45 |
: He’s launched some crazy hard throws from the hole at short after turning on a dime
|
| 12:45 |
: with some pitching mechanics, that could be even better
|
| 12:45 |
Do you run ZiPS projections for players in other professional leagues like the NPB or the Cuban leagues? How reliable are they? |
| 12:45 |
: I do, but only when I need to.
|
| 12:45 |
: They are less reliable as we have a shorter record of data.
|
| 12:46 |
: The ZiPS NPB projections haven’t been less accurate as a group, but that’s probably just a little bit of luck – they *should* be less accurate
|
| 12:46 |
Choo has essentially been Mike Trout vs. Righties. Poor guy can’t hit lefties |
| 12:46 |
: And the defense part
|
| 12:47 |
: Choo’s CF defense is, uh, different than Trout’s
|
| 12:48 |
: And given that any lefty Choo will face in his MLB career is likely a teenager or at least a tween, it’s harder to do a sweep and exterminate all the lefties from the face of the earth
|
| 12:49 |
: I assume. The ideal age for lefty smothering is probably 5 or 6, when the child has displayed his handedness and is still easily smotherable or able to trick with poisoned candy.
|
| 12:49 |
Can I call you Zimm or Zimmer? I want to be reminded of the epic Pedro-Don Zimmer throwdown as often as possible. |
| 12:49 |
: It doesn’t quite work since the next syllable is Bor, which really makes a mess
|
| 12:49 |
I made it to the championship, Mauer’s hurt and been rolling w Navarro. I think I might prefer to punt C given limited PAs (no full time catchers on the wire) to allow myself a few pitch streams as needed… what say ye? |
| 12:49 |
: It relaly depends on your matchup, as annoying an answer as that may be
|
| 12:49 |
If Bonds didn’t have a 120 IBBs in 2004 and we replaced them with AB, what would his final lines? |
| 12:50 |
: More.
|
| 12:50 |
: But to be honest, a lot of those intentional walks would end be intentional unintentional walks
|
| 12:51 |
: After all, those are the scenarios they least wanted to give Bonds something to hit, so they’d probably be in the Danger Zone lower % than other ABs
|
| 12:51 |
Obviously its going to vary according to pre-season expectations, but what do you think the general attitude is towards the one game playoff in front offices? Would they be more likely to consider making it and losing a success or do they consider it the same as losing a tiebreaker playoff. |
| 12:51 |
: I actually think they’re still sorting out their feelings.
|
| 12:51 |
: It is generally considered a success, even if it’s a 1-game and out situation
|
| 12:51 |
: Generally speaking
|
| 12:52 |
: Depends on the team. The Rangers may not have as exciting a view of a 1-game playoff as last year, it was essentially a disaster that they got into that situation
|
| 12:53 |
: While the Cards, who would have finished 6 games out of the wild card last year and instead got an opportunity to get within a game of making the World Series, may initially feel a lot better
|
| 12:53 |
Can we discount every good move Showalter has done with the O’s now that he continues to play Mike Morse in the outfield? |
| 12:53 |
: I don’t know what the hell Mike Morse is doing in the outfield
|
| 12:54 |
: Mike Morse in the OF looks like a cat that missed a jump and went crashing to the floor – wide-eyed, mildly confused, and wondering just how the hell that happened
|
| 12:54 |
do managers cost their teams runs or increase their runs during an entire season? |
| 12:54 |
: Well, they can do either.
|
| 12:54 |
: Though in-game tactics tend to be overrrated.
|
| 12:54 |
: The big, macro decisions are the ones that have the most effect
|
| 12:54 |
It seems like rookie performances getting so good that it’s a bit sad that Gerrit Cole’s performance in the majors is considered disappointing. |
| 12:55 |
: Yeah, Trout, Harvey, etc. have resulted in a new rookie category of ho-hum awesomeness
|
| 12:57 |
What’s your favorite old-timey insult? Personally i loke to go way back and call people papists. Never see it coming. |
| 12:57 |
: dandiprat
|
| 12:58 |
: moldwarp, blackguard
|
| 12:58 |
: rapscallion
|
| 12:58 |
: coxcomb
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| 12:59 |
Bartolo seems to be doing alright with one pitch! |
| 12:59 |
I forget, how does ZiPs projects players with little-no major league playing time? Do you use minor league numbers or MLEs at all? |
| 12:59 |
: Yup. Minor league translations
|
| 12:59 |
: My database goes super far back
|
| 12:59 |
What would an extension for Starling Marte look like at this point? |
| 12:59 |
: That’s a question to ask me on Twitter! Running ZiPS in-chat really slows things down
|
| 1:00 |
: And my phone call already slowed it down a bit
|
| 1:00 |
: (So we’re holding off 10 minutes until the lightning round)
|
| 1:00 |
I’ve been treated so gingerly, you could serve me with a plate of sushi |
| 1:00 |
:
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| 1:00 |
Will Todd Frazier improve, in your opinion, next season after this season’s abysmal year or have we seen his peak? |
| 1:01 |
: His ZiPS projected OPS+ before the season was 99 and he’s at 96
|
| 1:01 |
: Frazier was a sub-.800 OPS guy at AAA, after all.
|
| 1:01 |
THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!! |
| 1:01 |
: I actually upset a little kid at the store over the weekend.
|
| 1:02 |
: This kid, 5 or 6 or 7, was running up and down the aisles shouting with no apparently parental supervision
|
| 1:02 |
: I was in his way in the cereal aisle and he looked at me and said “You’re stupid!”
|
| 1:03 |
: So I told him “Well, at least my parents are getting a divorce because I won’t shut up at the grocery store”
|
| 1:03 |
: aren’t getting a divorce
|
| 1:03 |
: he was quieter after that
|
| 1:03 |
Cutch will win because he’s the best player on the team withe the most interesting narrative. |
| 1:03 |
Adam Dunns avg is still horrible, but hes been at about .270 for the past 3 months after being in the low 100s to start the season. Im guess Zips will predict another .200 avg for next year, but can we assume a changed approach and predict higher? |
| 1:04 |
: I wouldn’t go that far
|
| 1:04 |
: The difference in those BAs is essentially all BABIP
|
| 1:05 |
Do teams run analytics on umpires using pitch f/x data? |
| 1:05 |
: I don’t personally know of a team doing it, though that doesn’t mean they aren’t
|
| 1:06 |
: I probably could find out, but my relationship with front offices is more social-casual than directly connected with my job
|
| 1:06 |
: I’m not really a reporter, after all
|
| 1:06 |
Aside from Fernandez, who among the young SP’s with innings limits in 2013 will be the best in 2014? |
| 1:06 |
: Well, Wheeler’s got a good shot
|
| 1:07 |
Would you rather have the best donut in the world or the best cookie in the world? Does your answer change if it’s the most average donut and the most average cookie? |
| 1:07 |
: donut
|
| 1:07 |
: I like donuts better than cookies
|
| 1:07 |
: But I rarely eat donuts or cookies. I’m round enough eating *well* that I very rarely eat sweets or junk food
|
| 1:08 |
: I haven’t even had a dorito in like a year!
|
| 1:08 |
hello |
| 1:08 |
: what’s up?
|
| 1:08 |
Did you see Travis Sawchik’s article about the Pirates aggressive shifts? Thoughts? |
| 1:09 |
: I have not, over in the trib blog?
|
| 1:09 |
: My day was waking up at 8, seeing the internet was down, cursing and going back to sleep until 10, writing a playoff odds piece, and coming here.
|
| 1:10 |
: And of course, it wasn’t a long drive to come here. I went down some stairs into my office.
|
| 1:10 |
Super important question. I’m setting my lineup for the week. Does Smoak return soon? |
| 1:10 |
: I thought he was supposed to be in today’s lineup
|
| 1:10 |
If the Indians do give Ubaldo a QO, do you think he accepts? Especially considering how free agency went for a more established, albeit older, Kyle Loshe? |
| 1:10 |
: I think he turns it down. Lohse still got a better contract than 1/13
|
| 1:11 |
Biggest issue the Jays need to address this offseason is A) Starting Pitching B)2nd Base C) Defense |
| 1:11 |
: catcher is very important
|
| 1:11 |
: They’ll definitely need some bouncebacks from the returning starters
|
| 1:11 |
What’s your outlook like for Starlin Castro next season? Rebound year? |
| 1:11 |
: I’m optimistic – he’s very talented after all
|
| 1:11 |
If you are the Rockies do you try to move Tulo or CarGo in the offseason? |
| 1:11 |
: I would at least explore the possibility
|
| 1:11 |
: There should never be any such thing as an untouchable player.
|
| 1:12 |
: You always at least listen
|
| 1:12 |
Do you trust ZiPS nearly unconditionally before the year? Or do you gauge the projections and see if anything strikes you as “off” about them? |
| 1:12 |
: My opinion takes ZiPS into consideration, but it is separate from ZiPS
|
| 1:12 |
: No ZiPS projection will *ever* have my finger on the scale
|
| 1:13 |
: And I’ve never changed my mind about reporting a projection based on the result
|
| 1:13 |
: Only exception is if I’m doing something in which I need some theoretical constraint
|
| 1:14 |
: For instance, I have some reported playoff odds depending on what KC does against Cleveland (0, 1, 2, 3 wins)
|
| 1:14 |
My name is Dan, I like video games, indie rock,and statistics. The only difference is that I’m studying actuarial science instead of saber. We should hang out! |
| 1:14 |
: Do you like heavy drinking?
|
| 1:15 |
: And do you play an instrument? My friend base is mostly keyboard and drums.
|
| 1:15 |
: If The Cheeseburger Bourgeoisie are ever to get assembled, I need a guitarist!
|
| 1:15 |
Do you think the Yanks give Robertson the first crack at the closer role in 2014 or do they try to go after someone in the offseason? |
| 1:15 |
: He’s definitely going the inside track.
|
| 1:16 |
: The Yankees priority will be (and should be) Cano
|
| 1:16 |
: and they still want to stay under 189 if they can
|
| 1:16 |
Is Dave Dombrowski the most underrated GM in baseball? |
| 1:16 |
: I think he’s pretty highly rated. At the very least, I believe he’s rated.
|
| 1:16 |
I am typing this comment so as to appear to be taking notes |
| 1:17 |
: What subject? Maybe we can do some lesson-relevant Qs so you feel less guilty about blowing off the clss.
|
| 1:17 |
I bet all of my office buddies that Maybin would go .260 / 15HR / 50 SB. I’m buying lunch next week … but should I make that bet again for next season? |
| 1:17 |
: What do you get if you win?
|
| 1:17 |
: If it’s one lunch for you, but 6 lunches for everyone else, that’s a tough bet
|
| 1:18 |
: And it’s a rough bet, I dont’ think he’s getting near 50 SB and it’s still a tough park
|
| 1:18 |
Do you expect that the Pirates defense will take a nose dive after this season for no other reason than bad luck? (that + Clint Barmes leaving) |
| 1:18 |
: There will be some regression, no doubt.
|
| 1:19 |
Is there a particular type of player over which you and ZiPS often disagree? |
| 1:19 |
: I tend to like guys with hard + moving stuff with poor results more than ZiPS does.
|
| 1:19 |
: Seomtimes that works out (I called Ivan Nova the player most likely to crush ZiPS)
|
| 1:19 |
: Sometimes it doesn’t (ZiPS has liked Jake Arrieta a lot less than me and usually beats me)
|
| 1:19 |
Since you took 3 minutes to answer the phone, will you be adding 3 minutes to the end of this chat, like they do in soccer? |
| 1:20 |
: But like soccer guys, it’s a secret stopwatch in my mind
|
| 1:21 |
If Greg Holland were a mystical wizard, he would have had the power to force himself into the 8th inning yesterday, rather than allowing Ned Yost to place a dagger between his own team’s metaphorical ribs! |
| 1:21 |
: You need a really magical environment to overcome Ned Yost’s incompetence
|
| 1:21 |
Projected starting rotation for the 2014 San Francisco Giants? |
| 1:22 |
: Well, Cain/Bumgarner in obviously, pretyt open after that
|
| 1:22 |
: I think they try to get Lincecum to come back for 1/10 or something
|
| 1:22 |
: Vogelsong really is worth the option
|
| 1:22 |
: (He does have an option, right? For like 6?)
|
| 1:23 |
: petit obviouslyg ets a shot
|
| 1:24 |
: The weird thing on Zito is that it’s not an absolute slam-dunk to not pick up the option.
|
| 1:24 |
: If I’m recalling my numbers right, it’s 7 milino buyout, 18 million option, so given that 7 million is gone, it’s essentially a question fo whether he can be worth 1 year, $11 million.
|
| 1:24 |
: I don’t think he is, but there’s at least an argument
|
| 1:25 |
: Not a good one, but at least above the level of crazy insane
|
| 1:25 |
Thoughts on MLB’s antitrust exemption? |
| 1:25 |
: I don’t think any business or group should have exemptions that others do not have.
|
| 1:25 |
You need to play more EUIV, greatest game of the decade. |
| 1:25 |
: I do. After the seaosn, i will definitely have more time
|
| 1:25 |
: There are lots of games out right now that are competing for my love.
|
| 1:26 |
Syzzle!!! |
| 1:26 |
: D.J. Sizzle’s bringing you all our favorite 80s/90s hip-hop tracks. Are you down with O.B.P.?
|
| 1:26 |
picture dictionaries! Shockingly, U actually IS for Ubaldo Jimenez in this one. None of the children I've showed it to get that one at all. |
| 1:27 |
Aaron Cibia sounds like a restaurant that prides itself on being “sustainable” |
| 1:28 |
: “I’m executive chef Aaron Cibia and I’m bringing you classical Spanish cuisine with modern flair, all from locally-sourced meat and produce. And every Wednesday is paella night.”
|
| 1:28 |
Whose performance has been more surprising: Lackey or Liriano? |
| 1:28 |
: Lackey
|
| 1:28 |
Why did you have to tell me about Crusader Kings 2? It’s like I don’t have a life anymore. |
| 1:28 |
: I’m sorry. 13th century dynastic manipulation is much fun
|
| 1:28 |
Texas a good fit for Beltran next year? |
| 1:29 |
: Possibly. I thought Beltran would be underpaid last contract (and he was), but I think he may be overpaid in the next one
|
| 1:29 |
: Though the Rangers are arguably in a position where an overpay makes sense
|
| 1:29 |
WHo do you like longterm: Wacha or Miller? |
| 1:29 |
: That’s one of those beer vs. taco questions.
|
| 1:29 |
Is Segura keeper worthy? Have to pick three between: Segura, Hosmer, Puig, Upton, Pujols . Other keepers are: Kershaw and Carlos Gomez. |
| 1:29 |
: I think so, but I’d like to trade him, depending on what your league’s rules are
|
| 1:29 |
How worried should Mike Illitch’s kids be about their inheritcance going to Scherzer and Cabrera? |
| 1:30 |
: Ilitch is definitely whittling down their inheritance, but all his kids are doing well at this point, so it shouldn’t be too upsetting.
|
| 1:31 |
: Ilitch’s actuarial position really puts him in a position where the Tigers are going to continue to be very aggressive
|
| 1:31 |
How concerned should I be about Miguel Cabrera as a fantasy owner in two leagues? It’s playoff time and I’m freaking out! |
| 1:31 |
: Don’t be.
|
| 1:31 |
: Or perhaps No! No! No!
|
| 1:31 |
Rumors have the Mets targeting Choo. Can you speculate Choo vs Ellsbury potential contracts. And future values. |
| 1:32 |
: Bah, this is a twitter q!
|
| 1:32 |
Wasn’t Bryce Harper clocked in the high 90s when he was in high school? |
| 1:32 |
I believe that Tulo got it into the mid-90s as a pitcher in high school. |
| 1:32 |
Regarding Strasburg, would it be fair to say we saw his best when he was a roookie when posted a 52 FIP-, which a Randy Johnson in his prime kind of silly? He’s still excellent, but will always be a disappoint in the eyes of many |
| 1:32 |
: Well, yeah. He’s still going to have a terrific career if he stays healthy
|
| 1:33 |
: OK, let’s call the lightning round. This is the best time for random, odd questions.
|
| 1:33 |
I keep hearing all of this chatter about yan Gomes as a dark horse for AL ROY, but didn’t be exceed the active roster time period last year with TOR, and would not qualify then? |
| 1:34 |
: I think he did, actually.
|
| 1:35 |
: I’m trying to roughly count his pre-September playing time.
|
| 1:35 |
: I don’t think he’s under 45 games on active roster
|
| 1:36 |
: days that is
|
| 1:37 |
: At a minimum, not being on active roster day before start of playing time stints or day after, I count 10 for May, 13 for June, 11 for July, 18 for August. That’s 52.
|
| 1:37 |
Even the lefties that aren’t good at pitching? Like Paul McCartney or Ricky Romero? |
| 1:37 |
: I think McCartney could keep Choo to a .650 OPS or so
|
| 1:37 |
People seem to say that the NPB falls between AAA and MLB, but given how many really subpar MLBers make it big over there, can’t we say it’s somewhat closer to AA? (Yu Darvish and Hideki Matsui notwithstanding, I guess.) |
| 1:38 |
: Not really, it’s between AAA and MLB from a pure value, average standpoint
|
| 1:39 |
: But the stats don’t take proportional hits.
|
| 1:39 |
: For example, for a HR-heavy guy in Japan, NPB is like AA relative to MLB from a translation standpoint
|
| 1:39 |
: But for singles, they’re about equivalent
|
| 1:40 |
: The move from US–>NPB is most advantageous for the pure power guys
|
| 1:40 |
I can’t see Choo genetically engineering a supervirus and releasing it to kill all left handed individuals, I don’t think he could grow a big enough mustache to twirl when he released the virus. Plus, he would look silly in the monocle. Wait what was this chat about? |
| 1:40 |
If Youk was the Greek God of walks, what did that make BARRY BONDS. |
| 1:40 |
: The Overgod.
|
| 1:41 |
Do you trust that Smoak won’t regress again next year? |
| 1:41 |
: He’ll regress somewhat, but he did take a big step forward
|
| 1:41 |
Have you ever checked to see if players in a contract year outperform ZiPS on average? |
| 1:41 |
: Yes and have not found it to be the case.
|
| 1:41 |
Follow up on your manager comment, what do you define as big macro decisions, lineup construction…? |
| 1:42 |
: Yeah, like deciding if you want to let Brandon Belt get a full opportunity or bench him for Aubrey Huff every time he goes 0-for-4
|
| 1:42 |
Rank the three NL central contending managers: Hurdle, Dusty, Matheny? |
| 1:42 |
: H, M, D
|
| 1:42 |
Who wins more games next season: Mariners or Angels? |
| 1:42 |
: Angels
|
| 1:42 |
Delmon hit fifth yesterday (WTF) and had two walks. Has he ever had two walks in a single game before? |
| 1:43 |
: He did it twice more this year!
|
| 1:43 |
On a scale of 1-10, how awesome is it that Old Hoss Radbourne’s 1887 Old Judge baseball card is the first recorded instance of a human being flipping off a camera? |
| 1:43 |
: I’m more impressed that he’s still alive and tweeting
|
| 1:43 |
Read a lot on the Dodger payroll at the start of the year. Why isn’t there being anything written on the Yankees having the highest payroll in the HISTORY OF SPORT? Do they get a free pass with the media due to all the injuries (they shouldn’t – no one forced them to sign Team Geriatric). |
| 1:44 |
: Yankees made more, but the Dodgers were more newsworthy because the Yankees payouts were mostly legacy
|
| 1:44 |
: And the Yankees have been making a lot of noise about trying to get under luxury threshold. The Dodgers have nto
|
| 1:45 |
: After this year, the Dodgers have $642 million in long-term contract guarantees
|
| 1:45 |
: The Yankees have $246 million
|
| 1:46 |
Over a full season, Gerrit Cole would have put up a 3-4 win season as a rookie. That’s fantastic, better than Verlander and what Harvey did his rookie year. |
| 1:46 |
: We’re spoiled now
|
| 1:46 |
How amenable would you be to a rival, third major league challenging MLB’s supremacy? It’s crazy that it’s been almost 100 years since anyone tried to established a new major league, given ABA-NBA and AFL-NFL experiences |
| 1:46 |
: It would be fun, but it’s an uphill climb
|
| 1:46 |
: You need mega-bucks to compete.
|
| 1:46 |
: MLB would have to stumble considerably for it to happen
|
| 1:46 |
Why do you take so many questions posted from Sgt. Pepper…on who “Hello”…really!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
| 1:46 |
: It’s coincidental.
|
| 1:46 |
Do you watch Anime? |
| 1:46 |
: I don’t, but have nothing against it
|
| 1:47 |
: Except the male haircuts that defy gravity
|
| 1:47 |
Give me a reason to watch the White Sox at the ballpark next week. |
| 1:47 |
: It’s baseball.
|
| 1:47 |
: Duh
|
| 1:47 |
How good do you think Kevin Gausman can be next year? |
| 1:47 |
: I’m still optimistic. I think he’ll be a solid starter in the majors next year
|
| 1:47 |
Re: Trout rookie season. Trout’s 2011 was clearly sub-awesome. Reason #1 million ROY is a terrible award. |
| 1:47 |
: You gotta set a line somewhere
|
| 1:47 |
Don’t worry, even if it’s been a year since you last had a dorito all the others you ate before that are still with you. |
| 1:48 |
: I’m sure at least a percentage of the doritos entered the sewage system
|
| 1:48 |
: I don’t think human bodies can convert 100% of a dorito into stored energy
|
| 1:48 |
Is team chemistry the most overated thing? I hated most people on my baseball team. But I liked baseball and liked being good. I tried my best every PA or fielding play for myself. I wasn’t paid and didn’t have fans. Yet a professional athletr making millions of dollars performs poorly because he doesn’t “like” his teammates? Baseball is primarily an individual sport anyways. I’m Red Sox fan and I’m tired of it. |
| 1:48 |
: Yeah, it’s always a post hoc explanation.
|
| 1:49 |
Do you have a quota on the amount of St.Pepper questions you answer in a chat? |
| 1:49 |
: I don’t even look at the names. Sometimes, asking a lot of questiosn pays off.
|
| 1:49 |
2013 projections for Martin Van Buren? |
| 1:49 |
: Assuming he came back from the dead, he would need a haircut
|
| 1:50 |
: Ain’t nobody getting elected into office with that hair
|
| 1:50 |
Are defensive ratings really fluky? It seems hard to believe Ryan Zimmerman is the worst defensive 3B in baseball. Other example is Beltre averaging 10.7 Fld over the past 2 years, now he is at 1.7… |
| 1:50 |
: Very. A year of defensive stats is about the same predictive value as 2 months of offensive stats
|
| 1:50 |
How does Zips project someone like Gerrit Cole’s K/9 for next season, where it’s fairly clear form watching him that he has the talent to get more strikeouts and was told by the team to take an approach that suppressed his strikeout totals? |
| 1:50 |
: ZiPS knows nothing of these things.
|
| 1:50 |
My name is Dan, I actually work for PlayStation, I like indie rock, and statistics. I also like heavy drinking and do vocals. The only difference is that I do data/reporting instead of sabermetrics. (Also, I live in California.) We should hang out! |
| 1:51 |
: But it’s a long flight!
|
| 1:51 |
Here’s the link to travis’ article: http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/4689239-74/pirates-defensive-season#axzz2f4pwIpxz |
| 1:51 |
| 1:52 |
: Old Country Buffet
|
| 1:52 |
My name isn’t Dan, my gaming story starts and ends at MLB The Show, I’ve always been pretty terrible at math, but I do play guitar pretty well, and I’m always down for heavy drinking. We should be friends |
| 1:52 |
: Good, I need some non-Dans
|
| 1:52 |
is farrell a lock for moty? is there someone else you’d prefer to see get the nod? |
| 1:52 |
: I think he will get the nod. He’s got the storyline of the Red Sox bouncing back after a disaster season and a season that became a disaster a t the end
|
| 1:53 |
: I’d actually give it to Girardi. He’s had *zero* flexibility at keeping the Yankees togetehr
|
| 1:53 |
: They’re in playoff contention with one of the worst offenses in team history
|
| 1:53 |
: And Sabathia sucking
|
| 1:55 |
The Blue Jays owned all the best moves…..bwahahahaha. The Dickey trade was far from best…..it was bad. |
| 1:55 |
“You’re adopted! You’re parents don’t even love you!” |
| 1:56 |
Re: hardest throwing position player. Don’t forget Chris Davis pumping 92-mph fastballs (for strikes!) against the Sox last year. The man is Ruthian. |
| 1:56 |
What is the best name in professional sports? In MLB? |
| 1:56 |
: Gonzalez German German.
|
| 1:57 |
: err Gonzalez German Germen
|
| 1:57 |
Is the NYY front office conspiring to keep the team from the playoffs to deny A-Rod the good PR from leading the playoff run? “Jeter, limp; Gardner, overswing and hurt your oblique!! |
| 1:57 |
: Heh.
|
| 1:57 |
: Probably not. As long as they have the distraction and a payroll sink, it’s not a bad idea to at least ride it while they can
|
| 1:57 |
why dont other teams call up no-hit speedsters in September? |
| 1:58 |
: Conservatism. There’s no reason to *not* call up guys unless you’re shutting them down for injury/IP limit
|
| 1:58 |
: More options are better than fewer
|
| 1:58 |
Can ZIPS predict how many more live versions of Underworld’s “Born Slippy” I’m going to watch on YT this PM? |
| 1:58 |
: I would need more information to model your tendencies
|
| 1:58 |
If you could only look at one defensive metric…which one would it be? |
| 1:58 |
: *If* only one, it would be TZ, just so I can hav he historical archive
|
| 1:59 |
: Probably UZR if that’s not a consideration – longer track record
|
| 1:59 |
Can you give us a sneak preview of your AL wild card predictions? Or a link to the article you referenced? |
| 1:59 |
: Piece apepars to be up now.
|
| 2:00 |
| 2:00 |
: Hasn’t hit the carousel yet, so the link is best way
|
| 2:00 |
How can teams like the Rays and Indians attract fans? |
| 2:01 |
: Supermodel nudity
|
| 2:01 |
: The Rays actually have a complaint, unlike many small market teams past. They actually *have* put together a good product
|
| 2:01 |
Which Dan Haren is for real? |
| 2:01 |
: I still think he’ll mea mid-rotation guy
|
| 2:01 |
Why hasn’t anyone asked why Kate is going as far away as possible on the bus? She could be in trouble. You people are selfish. |
| 2:01 |
: She could also be guilty of murder
|
| 2:02 |
: And has taken a very inefficient means of fleeing the jurisdiction
|
| 2:02 |
As an American, do you recognize any of the following Canadian entertainers? Wayne and Schuster? Trailer Park Boys? Stompin’ Tom Connors? |
| 2:02 |
: I know none of these things.
|
| 2:03 |
: Should I?
|
| 2:03 |
: They have trailer parks in Canada?
|
| 2:03 |
Maybe we should all announce ourselves as Sgt. Pepper. |
| 2:03 |
You looked at my name. YES! YES! YES! |
| 2:03 |
Have you ever heard of the Mantis Shrimp? You need to google it immediately. It’s probably the coolest think on earth. I’ll help get you started: http://theoatmeal.com/comics/mantis_shrimp |
| 2:03 |
: I’m kind of afraid
|
| 2:04 |
: I’ve been tricked into google search for blue waffle and into lemon party
|
| 2:04 |
I see Fangraphs 2013 projected standings has the Rays with 89 wins and the Rangers and Indians projected for 88 wins. Lucky for the AL they have the Wednesday wild card Play In game. The more bunched up that wild card spot the cooler things get. If nothing else the last weekend in the AL should be great! |
| 2:05 |
: My monte carlo simulations break ties, thanksfully
|
| 2:05 |
No question. Just a new name |
| 2:05 |
Is your best friend Mark Rzepczynski? Do you guys discuss your similar heritages when out for pierogis? |
| 2:05 |
: *I’m* the hard-to-spell guy. I don’t want to be in a room in which I only have the second-hardest last name
|
| 2:06 |
: TAKE A BATH WITH A TOAST, JASON WOJCIECHOWSKI!!!!!!!!!!!11111111oneoneone
|
| 2:06 |
: toaster
|
| 2:06 |
Any chance the Bucs resign Marlon Byrd this offseason to be a placeholder until Polanco is ready? What would it take? |
| 2:06 |
: I think Byrd’s short-term
|
| 2:06 |
My name is , I work for doing . I play video games and enjoy moderate drinking. Does that work? |
| 2:06 |
: Doing like the verb or rhyming with Boing?
|
| 2:06 |
Trust me on the Mantis Shrimp. It will totally blow your mind. There’s even a baseball reference on that page. It’s totally SFW. |
| 2:06 |
OMG! You totally should know the Trailer Park Boys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
| 2:06 |
Do you The Tragically Hip, Carole Baker, This Hour Has 22 Minutes, Blue Rodeo? |
| 2:07 |
: Now I know the Tragically Hip
|
| 2:07 |
: Do I get some kind of credit for having the discography for Zumpano, Destroyer, and Immaculate Machien?
|
| 2:08 |
: I’ve heard of This Hour Has 22 Minutes but haven’t seen it
|
| 2:09 |
: I have heard of Blue Rodeo but nothing else, no idea who Carole Baker is
|
| 2:09 |
I know not of the blue waffle and lemon party. |
| 2:09 |
: Try to keep it that way
|
| 2:09 |
If you’ve ever been to a hockey game you know Stompin Tom Conners’ “Good’ol hockey game” song |
| 2:09 |
Apparently coveritlive isn’t a big fan of angle brackets. It throws them out from responses |
| 2:09 |
Absolutely. |
| 2:10 |
: OK, on that note, time for me to shuffle off for another week.
|
| 2:10 |
: See you all next week, unless I am dead!
|
| 2:10 |
: And even in the event that I am dead, I will do my best to tweet my final moments, assuming they are possible.
|
| 2:11 |
: If I don’t show up for chat next week, tweet me some Jeff Francoeur jokes. If you still hear nothing for me, I have in fact expired.
|
| 2:11 |
Killed by the Mantis Shrimp!!! |
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Oh my gosh! The mantis shrimp is awesome!