Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/3/15
| 11:59 |
: Baseball time!
|
| 12:00 |
: Well, baseball chat time!
|
| 12:00 |
: Going to start lightning round strictly at 1 and try to get through it quickly – I have a very busy afternoon today.
|
| 12:00 |
: At least I got my sleep back from the deadline over the weekend!
|
| 12:01 |
How long before the A’s cut Ike Davis? He’s basically Daric Barton. |
| 12:01 |
: Well, they kept Barton around forever
|
| 12:02 |
Chances of Severino being in the Yankees’ postseason rotation? |
| 12:02 |
: Depends on whether he pitches well or not, really. No need to make any decision yet.
|
| 12:02 |
Jesus Montero seems like he’s done everything possible to warrant 100-150 PAs between now and the end of the season. What line, if that’s even possible, does he need to put up to let the M’s pencil him in at 1B next year? |
| 12:02 |
: I think that it’s a little rigid. With the season all but over, the M’s really need to be answering as many questions to help them in 2016
|
| 12:03 |
: And so they really need to keep starting him. He’s hit the best he has in the minors since he was actually a prospect after all
|
| 12:03 |
How does ZiPS handle park factors in the projections? I noticed Tulos projection went down massively and Reyes’ went way up after the trades regarding Coors Field. Does it use half the park factors for each stat? Just an overall runs factor? Does it differentiate between parks favorable for lefties vs. righties? |
| 12:04 |
: In-season, a simply model of the park factors, the season-to-season model does (conservatively) include L/R
|
| 12:04 |
Is a 2-win young, controlled player or a star with a huge contract more likely to get claimed on waivers? |
| 12:04 |
: Really depends on the player in question.
|
| 12:04 |
If the Mariners don’t trade Austin Jackson in August and don’t extend a QO, what were they thinking not trading him? |
| 12:04 |
: Well, they weren’t.
|
| 12:05 |
: I’m not sure if the team truly believes the season is over
|
| 12:05 |
Do you think Jon Gray’s stuff will play in Denver? Any expectations for him? |
| 12:05 |
: Cautiously optimistic. Coors Field is a mystery – guys you think shouldn’t do well there sometimes survive and the opposite.
|
| 12:05 |
Thoughts on the Brandon Moss trade? Cards get fleeced? Or did the price of a slugger just go up? |
| 12:06 |
: It’s a little high for Brandon Moss, who has an OPS+ that gets a bit worse every year since that breakout, but the Cards also found themselves thrust into the OF market very suddenly by the Holliday injury.
|
| 12:06 |
How the good golly goodness did the Indians manage to get Kaminsky for Moss!? |
| 12:07 |
: It was a nice trade for the Indians.
|
| 12:07 |
Taijuan Walker flashes brilliance and… not-so-brilliance. Is that more based on his opponents than anything else at this point? |
| 12:07 |
: I don’t know if it’s really opponent based
|
| 12:07 |
: He just goes through these stretches were his command is just off
|
| 12:08 |
JUNG HO KANG FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!!!! |
| 12:08 |
: He’s making his case
|
| 12:08 |
More likely to succeed in 2015: Henry Owens or Jon Gray? |
| 12:09 |
: I like Gray better overall, but Owens has an easier environment to get used to
|
| 12:09 |
Alright. With Jesse Chavez running out of steam, could they move him to the closer role and use Doubront as a starter? |
| 12:09 |
: They could, but I expect Doubront’s mostly there for 2016 back roation end
|
| 12:09 |
If I keep answering every questionably conservative managerial decision with “It was a by the book move”, am I arguing my own way out of a job? |
| 12:09 |
: Books work cheaper
|
| 12:09 |
When do the bucs call up Glasgow with Burnett potentially done? |
| 12:10 |
: I don’t think they do this year, except maybe bullpen in September.
|
| 12:10 |
: I don’t think they bring in Happ if there was a real chance Glasnow would get starts
|
| 12:10 |
: Even with the AJ issues
|
| 12:11 |
Is Upton a big enough free agent that being tagged with a QO won’t really affect his price? |
| 12:11 |
: It always affects the price, it’s just fsor some guys their contract is so big that you can’t really tell
|
| 12:11 |
What’s the deal with Iwakuma? Do the Mariners think that their chances to re-sign are significantly better without trading him, or is it actually in part because ownership didn’t want to trade him? If it’s the latter, that sounds worrisome. |
| 12:11 |
: I have no idea what the Mariners think, generally.
|
| 12:11 |
Which young Cubs stud will end up the most valuable out of Russell/Bryant/Soler/Schwarber/Baez |
| 12:11 |
: Bryant
|
| 12:11 |
Chris Taylor has been sent down yet again after an underwhelming stint in the majors. What’s a realistic outcome for him? Trade to the Cardinals where he will develop into a useful player? |
| 12:11 |
: I think he’ll be fine.
|
| 12:11 |
How do you rationalize the Padres decision not to sell? |
| 12:12 |
: I don’t. It was dumb.
|
| 12:12 |
The Royals’ role as MLB trouble-maker is great for the game, right? 2015 seems to have a lot of colorful characters (Royals, Harper, A-Rod, Flores, Bumgarner, Grienke) that keep things interesting. |
| 12:12 |
: I enjoy troublemaking
|
| 12:12 |
What’s the timeline for GMs getting fired? I want to know when I can expect JZ to either be gone or convince ownership that his five year plan is an eight year plan now. |
| 12:12 |
: No set timeline, depends on the owner. Just as a general rule, I’d say that GMs feel the heat once they’ve gotten their sacrificial manager scapegoat firing out of the way
|
| 12:13 |
How much are you buying RA Dickey’s recent run of good starts? The strikeouts appear to be slowly coming back. |
| 12:13 |
: He’d had a bunch of good starts in a row
|
| 12:13 |
: I tried looking at knuckleballers and consistency at one point, but just decided there were two few knuckleballers to make that particular kind of thing work
|
| 12:14 |
: But I always felt that he’s a 100ish ERA+ guy at this point, so I expect him to stay around his present seasonal numbers
|
| 12:14 |
What would Griffey’s career numbers have looked like if he had taken PEDs? |
| 12:14 |
: As I don’t know if he did or did not take PEDs, it’s hardly something I can guess.
|
| 12:15 |
: And nor are we seeing a great deal of evidence that from a playing standpoint that they’re really *that* big a deal
|
| 12:16 |
: After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.
|
| 12:18 |
: I see it as a *health* issue primarily. It’s good that there’s testing, but primarily so that players aren’t pressured to do something that’s illegal and could cause physical harm
|
| 12:18 |
Astros fan here. Thoughts on Mike Fiers? |
| 12:19 |
: Averageish pitcher, cost controlled. Good signing that helps them long-term though no star potential
|
| 12:19 |
Thor for ROY? Been saying it for a couple weeks now and it just keeps looking more and more likely. He is quite good at throwing baseballs. |
| 12:19 |
: It’s a tough year for ROY in the NL
|
| 12:19 |
The Reds were really dumb to not trade Todd Frazier, right? No way his value will ever be higher than it was this trade deadline |
| 12:19 |
: I believe so.
|
| 12:19 |
Is Didi Gregorius’ July (.317/.360/.427 + solid D) a sign of him growing as a player/getting more comfortable in NY? Or just random sample size stuff? |
| 12:19 |
: He had a really good month after some really bad play. Won’t read too much into it
|
| 12:20 |
Who is a better pitcher at this moment – CC Sabathia, or recently-designated teammate Chris Capuano? |
| 12:20 |
: It’s damn close.
|
| 12:20 |
If someone claims VMart, should the Tigers just let him go, and take the salary relief? Then go someone useful in the field like Heyward? |
| 12:20 |
: Yes.
|
| 12:20 |
Based on the trade for Cespedes and the near-trade for Bruce, it seems like the Gomez trade really might have collapsed for health reasons. So what do you make of his medicals? The Brewers and Astros don’t seem to see a problem. |
| 12:20 |
: Well, remember, the almost-trade fell t hrough because of financial reasons.
|
| 12:21 |
: I’m not inclined to believe that he has a signfiicant hip issue, though it’s possible. Inside baseball, there’s a lot of mocking of the Mets FO.
|
| 12:21 |
Would Jay Bruce pass through waivers and be a potential August trade candidate? It seems like he has a pretty team friendly contract. |
| 12:21 |
: I think he would not pass through waivers.
|
| 12:21 |
Which Ace provided the best return … Price, Cueto, or Hamels? |
| 12:22 |
: Hamels I think.
|
| 12:22 |
Has Preller made a single good decision in SD yet? |
| 12:22 |
: Some of the non-Kemp moves were perfectly acceptable
|
| 12:22 |
What is the appropriate punishment for someone that pays with a check in 2015? |
| 12:22 |
: Bastinado? They’re always ahead of me in th eline at the supermarket
|
| 12:22 |
: It’s not like you have to MAKE the check card. The bank just gives you in an envelope
|
| 12:23 |
: And I’m a lot more comfortable misplacing my debit card than I would my checkbook. Checks have your account/routing right on them!
|
| 12:23 |
Do you agree with the statement “Wilmer Flores is roughly a league average player making the league minimum?” |
| 12:24 |
: I wouldn’t say league-average, but he’s better than replacement. He’s a lousy defensive shortstop, but not the grand disaster that some people were going on about in APril
|
| 12:24 |
Thanks for answering re: Jackson. How can the Mariners not think their season is over? That is mind-boggling. |
| 12:24 |
: The Mariners are visionaries able to turn mindboggling dreams into reality.
|
| 12:25 |
I’ve read Joe Ross is skilled but streaky… Is he just on a hot streak, or is he legitimately improving to a 1/2 starter type? His strikeout to walk rate is insane. Also does he keep a rotation spot when Stras is back? |
| 12:25 |
: Good, but not this good. I t hink the Nats will find a way to keep starting him as long as he’s dependable though
|
| 12:25 |
: It’s really funny how the Nats essentially won a Wil Myers trade between Tampa Bay and San Diego
|
| 12:26 |
: It would be going to the bathroom at the end of the Super Bowl and coming back and a team not playing in the Super Bowl is on the field celebrating
|
| 12:26 |
For redrafts or for teams going for it in keeper leagues, would you specifically target players whose teams are involved in playoff chases? |
| 12:26 |
: Only to the extent of playing time
|
| 12:26 |
What hitter attributes are conducive to hitting 95+ fastballs well? |
| 12:26 |
: Bat speed
|
| 12:26 |
Are there any innings limits guys I need to worry about this year? I have Syndergaard, McCullers and Nola on my team. |
| 12:27 |
: Mostly mets as they’re going to be very careful with their young pitchers
|
| 12:27 |
Orioles didn’t have to give up a lot to get Gerardo Parra but at the same time he’s barely better than the marginal 4th OF types they have a ton of already. Should they have made a run at Bruce, Gomez or Cespedes given that none of those guys seemed to command a particularly high price either? |
| 12:27 |
: The O’s should have gone big or sold. Parra’s a nice pick up so the deadline wasn’t a disaster, but .500 teams being passive is usually a bad idea
|
| 12:27 |
Harvey – deGrom – Syndergaard, who has the best career of the group? |
| 12:27 |
: Still think Harvey but I like all of them
|
| 12:27 |
Given Kang’s success do you expect to see more Korean players in the MLB next season? |
| 12:28 |
: Yes. He’s adjusted marvelously
|
| 12:28 |
do you think grichuk can/will be in the ROY discussion? |
| 12:28 |
: No, too many big guys in front
|
| 12:28 |
: Grichuk has had a huge year, but he’s not gotten the press some others have
|
| 12:29 |
Let’s say the Mets remain in contention for the division – how do they manage their young arms? |
| 12:29 |
: They will likely go back to 6 man (they went back to 5 a couple weeks ago) or shorter outings
|
| 12:29 |
: I dont’ think anybody will just plain be shut down
|
| 12:29 |
Does Jason Heyward approach $200 million in free agency? |
| 12:30 |
: I don’t think so.
|
| 12:31 |
: I don’t think we’re at the point at which teams will put many nine figure deals in front of corner outfielders that get a majority of their value in defense
|
| 12:31 |
: And let’s not forget, defense doesn’t peak. It just declines.
|
| 12:31 |
: Heyward’s someone who I believe will end up getting something like 5/95 or 6/120 or something.
|
| 12:32 |
Are we currently seeing Anthony rizzo at his peak? Or can he get better? |
| 12:32 |
: He could have a crazy best year or something, but I think this is his peak that he’ll maintain for awhile
|
| 12:32 |
What will/should the Orioles do with the $20M or so (after accounting for expected arb increases) of payroll they’re expected to free up this offseason? |
| 12:32 |
: Depends on where the market is
|
| 12:32 |
Do you think projections like ZiPS could be more robust if they also considered Hit f/x and plate discipline statistics in their projections for hitters? |
| 12:33 |
: I do have some plate discipline numbers in there. But each of these data gains give us smaller benefits – the low hanging fruit is the most important part of the projection.
|
| 12:33 |
K. Bryant (3.4 WAR), M Duffy (3.2 WAR), J Kang (2.7 WAR), J. Pederson (2.7 WAR), R. Grichuk (2.7 WAR), N. Syndegaard (2.4 WAR). Pretty sick competition for NL RoY. |
| 12:33 |
: Great year for rookies.
|
| 12:33 |
How many QOs will the Orioles’ free agents get? Chen and Wieters both look like real edge cases. |
| 12:34 |
: I think they may give Chen an offer and not give Wieters one
|
| 12:34 |
What do you think you ZiPS does better than Steamer when it comes to projecting hitters? What do you think Steamer does better than ZiPS? |
| 12:34 |
: I don’t look at ZiPS *vs.* Steamer because with projection systems so close, you can get the wrong ideas about what the differences are between systems
|
| 12:35 |
: I just concentrate on making ZiPS the best I can rather than try to reverse-engineer what Cross/Davidson are doing.
|
| 12:35 |
So I get the idea that closers are married to the 9th inning with leads. It’s lame, but I get it. So now the Nats went and got Papelbon for the 9th, and this means Storen can only pitch in the 8th with leads? What fresh hell is this? |
| 12:35 |
: Paint-by-numbers managing.
|
| 12:35 |
The Wilmer Flores story has been a lot of fun, but does he ever get his OBP high enough to be an everyday player? The power is nice, and he’s still young, but what can we really expect out of him? |
| 12:36 |
: Offense is way down – he can be an everyday player *despite* his OBP, but that’ll limit his upside
|
| 12:36 |
Do you think a team could sign Heyward and make him a CF for the first few years of the deal? I’d like to see the Cubs give that a try |
| 12:36 |
: I would.
|
| 12:36 |
Carlos Gomez on being an Astro: “These guys make me feel sexy” has there ever been an image turnaround of such epic proportions? The Astros went from bumbling, hateable laughingstock to suddenly the toast of the league in ONE YEAR. |
| 12:36 |
: I like what the Astros did. When they saw the benefit of improving, they were aggressive abou tit
|
| 12:36 |
When you say you generally don’t know what the Mariners are thinking, do you think most of the lack of a logical approach comes from the GM, ownership, or where? |
| 12:37 |
: Hard to always tell the exact dynamics – teams don’t like revealing their exact internal thinking and structure even to the really well sourced reporters like Robothal
|
| 12:37 |
: But as a whole, the Mariners don’t really have a coherent plan, as far as I can tell
|
| 12:38 |
What is the best procedure for selecting cat names — pick a name you like in advance, choose a name based on the cat’s personality, or other? |
| 12:38 |
: Oops, t hat was for lightning round
|
| 12:38 |
: I just pick a name and whether or not it comes true, whatever
|
| 12:39 |
: Nobody asks me if Dan is a suitable name fo rme
|
| 12:39 |
Is Grichuk good? He is 3rd in hit velocity and and it hitting the ball hard. |
| 12:39 |
: He’s looking quite good
|
| 12:39 |
Is the reason we don’t see MLB talking more about a possible Brooklyn expansion team that they don’t want to devalue the Mets before the Wilpons sell? |
| 12:39 |
: I dont’ think MLB has the stomach to get into a fight with NY teams
|
| 12:40 |
How soon do teams put players on waivers to make them eligible for August trades? |
| 12:40 |
: Usually very quickly – there’s no benefit to waiting
|
| 12:40 |
Assuming the Tigers head into 2016 with Norris, JV, Anibal, and Greene/Fulmer locked into the rotation- are they in the Sign an Ace or bust mode? Not sure if signing a 2nd tier SP would help them enough |
| 12:40 |
: Again, depends on what happens in the offseason. Too many variables in August
|
| 12:40 |
IMO Griffey didn’t use PEDs. Obviously hard to know, but he put on weight in the places men over 30 usually put on weight and no discernible gain in muscle mass. And he didn’t recover from the injuries he suffered rapidly—-another feature of PED users. |
| 12:41 |
: Take the list of MLB and minor leaguers busted for steroids. Now, how many of those guys were talekd about beforehand because of generic circumstantial evidence?
|
| 12:41 |
: you test for PEDs with science
|
| 12:42 |
: This isn’t science. It’s applying some generic stereotype of 1980s east germans arbitrarily to players.
|
| 12:43 |
: If the eye test meant anything, then there would be someoen watching these guys that would be able to make predictive statements baout future drug testing positives. Haven’t seen any
|
| 12:44 |
: Maybe there are people that totally looked at Everth cabrera and saw steroids. I doubt it.
|
| 12:44 |
Other than a Padre, who was the biggest not-traded surprise this year. |
| 12:44 |
: Byrd
|
| 12:44 |
I drank a lot of beer and played a lot of Mario Superstar Baseball on GC this weekend. Have you played, and who is your favorite player? Luigi for me, with Yoshi a very close second (bunt singles for days) |
| 12:44 |
: I did not play that game
|
| 12:44 |
Brandon Moss deal – overpay for the Cards, or in line with trade deadline market? And does the deal look better based on non-publicly-available batted ball data? |
| 12:44 |
: Overpay, but the cards didn’t have a lot of time to look at plan bs
|
| 12:44 |
Do baseball teams provide full medical coverage for their players, including minor leaguers? Like, I’m sure if they get hurt on the job, it’s covered, but what about stuff like a sinus infection or a yearly checkup? Do they have to pay a copay to see a physician? |
| 12:45 |
: Depends on the organization. You get much better care when you become an MLBPA member
|
| 12:45 |
Taijuan Walker or Daniel Norris, RoS? |
| 12:45 |
: Walker probably, Norris is a little rawer right now.
|
| 12:45 |
It’s impossible to say when a player is not using PEDs, so those data are meaningless. |
| 12:45 |
: There’s *no* time frame
|
| 12:45 |
: And, of course, the null hypothesis is no effect.
|
| 12:46 |
: If what you say is true, then PED testing itself is meaningless
|
| 12:46 |
: If we can’t say that a group of players just busted for PEDs is no less likely to be using PEDs the next year, then there’s no purpose whatsoever for drug testing for performance purposes.
|
| 12:48 |
3 things about Flores: He’s only 23. Daniel Murphy is a free agent. There are no decent 2B free agents next year. |
| 12:48 |
Is literally sitting in a dark room doing nothing a more productive use of my time than trying to explain basic sabrmetrics to people on the /r/baseball subreddit? |
| 12:49 |
: Dunno, I actually don’t follow that subreddit
|
| 12:49 |
so the nats basically cashed in the money in the bank contract during the rays-padres trade |
| 12:49 |
Follow up to the 95+ mph fastballs question, is there data on bat speed somewhere? |
| 12:49 |
: Bat speed itself, not aware
|
| 12:50 |
Do you think any teams have altered their baseball operations decisions based on data statcast has provided yet? |
| 12:50 |
: I think that most ops are still getting a feel for what the data mean.
|
| 12:50 |
Do too many fans overvalue the “clubhouse” guys? Valencia being DFA’d doesn’t make a lot of sense, but the argument that it’ll ruin the clubhouse is just plain dumb. |
| 12:50 |
: Yes
|
| 12:51 |
Beeston will be out in Toronto this off season. So too will the 5 year policy (hopefully). Think they make a huge splash and re-sign Price? |
| 12:51 |
: I don’t think they will.
|
| 12:51 |
Should we just write this year off for Porcello or do youthink he can come back from the DL and at least hold his own for the last couple of months? |
| 12:51 |
: cautiously optimistic for next yea. this year not so much
|
| 12:51 |
Are you a fan of Titus Andronicus? If so what do you think of their new album? |
| 12:51 |
: I am, but i haven’t listend to new album yet
|
| 12:51 |
Thoughts on Latos start yesterday.Is the 1 K worrying ? |
| 12:51 |
: I wouldn’t worry about a start.
|
| 12:52 |
Off that NL RoY year list, is Duffy the player most likely to drop off a cliff next year? Or is he actually a good player? |
| 12:52 |
: I think he’ll maintain a lot of his improvement, though his future is decidedly lesser than Bryant, Pederson, Thor, etc
|
| 12:53 |
Has Ryan Braun shown enough in 2015 where the Brewers might be able to find a trade partner in the offseason? |
| 12:53 |
: Not really. Signing him to an exxtension that didn’t even *start* for 5 years was pretty stupid
|
| 12:54 |
: Rmeember, he’s signed through 2020
|
| 12:55 |
: His last star season was 2012. Would someone give him 5/110 this offseason? I don’t think so.
|
| 12:55 |
: I think the Brewers still have to offer a significant chunk of dough to get any prospect of note
|
| 12:56 |
Will the Reds bottom out like the Phils did? Seems like they are holding when they should be selling. |
| 12:56 |
: Not this year, but eventually. The Reds still have more players that dont’ suck than the Phils do or did last yera
|
| 12:56 |
Do teams take steps to prevent leaking of trade information, or do they not really care? |
| 12:57 |
: It’s tough. People in baseball like to talk
|
| 12:57 |
I didn’t see any PED like visuals from Ryan Braun. I think looking at a guy and trying to determine if they used PEDs is the wrong way to do it. |
| 12:58 |
: Yes. The way to determine PED use is actual science, not a dumb concoction of circumstances and stereotypes
|
| 12:58 |
: If you just took the circumstances around Roger Maris, removed the name and the years, people would automatically assume he used steroids
|
| 1:00 |
: I mean let’s see:
– Had a breakout season immediately after Dianabol was introduced to United States. – Suddenly doubled his home run output – Broke down physically in his early 30s – Had instances of anger with home fans before being traded – Died young of cancer |
| 1:01 |
: Now, if you told someone all these facts without them knowing who they referred to and asked “do you think that person used steroids?” You’ll get a lot of people saying yes
|
| 1:01 |
: But it would be stupid. That’s not science.
|
| 1:01 |
Played Rocket League? Thoughts? |
| 1:01 |
: Have not yet
|
| 1:01 |
There are SO many problems with making any conclusions about PED performance from the tiny sample of caught PED users. As a whole they don’t perform better, therefore PEDs don’t help performance is pretty weak. |
| 1:02 |
: There are a lot, both in the majors and minors
|
| 1:02 |
: But again, the null hypothesis is *no* effect
|
| 1:02 |
: It can tell us enough to that we fail to reject the null hypothesis of no effect
|
| 1:02 |
Honestly Dan, the East German women looked like men. Not an apt comparison. BTW, ARod never failed a drug test. Bosch said he could beat any drug test, so I don’t see how “science” helps. Cheaters use science as well. |
| 1:02 |
: If science fails to catch cheaters, then nothing catches drug cheaters.
|
| 1:03 |
: Science not working for a situation doesn’t mean dumb observations work.
|
| 1:03 |
: That’s like saying “Science hasn’t been able to stop pancreatic cancer very effectively. That means faith healers or guys that piss in 7-Up and make you drink it *can* stop pancreatic cancer.”
|
| 1:03 |
: You think you can identify PED users better than science? Prove it.
|
| 1:04 |
: Back it up or STFU.
|
| 1:04 |
: Post on a website somewhere the next players to be busted for PEDs, based solely on physical observations of tha tplayers.
|
| 1:04 |
: Link it here next week and I’ll post it.
|
| 1:05 |
: This is a chat of science and facts, not complete made-up bullshit.
|
| 1:06 |
: OK, let’s go to the Lightning Round as I’m on a tight sched this afternoon.
|
| 1:06 |
: The rules are as usual: I am *required* to answer any off-topic question given, no matter how stupid, so long as it’s not one of the specifically exempt categories (very explicit, work-related)
|
| 1:06 |
Did you see the VOD of Kripp’s crazy brawl game this weekend? Hearthstone, man. |
| 1:06 |
: Yup, that was hilarious. Saw it in his youtube
|
| 1:07 |
Favorite album(s) of 2015? |
| 1:07 |
: I can’t completely say as I’m a few months behind
|
| 1:07 |
: Baseball season reduces my music listening time
|
| 1:08 |
: But the two (non-classical) albums I’ve listened to the most this year so far that were released this year were The Decemberists What a Terrible World, What a Beautiful World and Belle and Sebastian Girls in Peacetime Want to Dance
|
| 1:08 |
When playing piano, do you have trouble fingering the white keys between the black keys in keys that require it? I have trouble not striking the neighbor keys. Any advice to deal with that? |
| 1:09 |
: How high up are you striking the keys? The farther you’re up the key, the less control you have over the tone
|
| 1:09 |
: It’s not a problem I have, so I can’t relaly give much useful advice there
|
| 1:10 |
: It does sound to me like you’re playing with a fairly rigid wrist, which can get you in trouble
|
| 1:10 |
What’s the maximum number of pets a person can own before you can conclude beyond doubt that person is insane? |
| 1:10 |
: I pet per 500 square feet.
|
| 1:10 |
: 1
|
| 1:10 |
I got a new computer and I can’t remember how to make CIL not upside down… |
| 1:10 |
: Neither do I
|
| 1:11 |
Le Creuset or Staub? |
| 1:11 |
: Not enough an expert, though I do have a dutch oven from the former that I’m very happy with
|
| 1:11 |
How much info do you think the Rosenthal’s of the world have but don’t release? |
| 1:12 |
: Reporting involves sifting through a lot of rumors and both solid things. And people in baseball will frquently work media, too
|
| 1:12 |
Fact of Fiction: Rogers Hornsby was named Rogers because there were originally two of him, but he ate his twin in utero, absorbing his powers. |
| 1:12 |
: INever considered this before, but I could totally see this
|
| 1:12 |
Willie Mays and Hank Aaron used greenies. Everyone stop bitching. Jesus christ |
| 1:12 |
“Dan Szymborski the Science Guymborski” |
| 1:12 |
: Worst TV show ever.
|
| 1:12 |
Is this really FG? Someone claiming the eye test is the best way to identify PED users? BRB gonna search for Ken Griffey Jr plus acne |
| 1:13 |
Do you have any writing on your development of ZiPs that I can read? Or is that mostly hush hush? |
| 1:13 |
: I haven’t written much about the actual development – I don’t write meta-type things very often.
|
| 1:13 |
: The 10 things I learned from making a projection system on THT is probably the most I’ve written about it
|
| 1:14 |
I’m not saying “look at the buff guy he is roided” but saying drugs that are scientifically proven to make you stronger and faster don’t help you in baseball, based on a sample that’s problematic for multiple reasons? Those things are both silly. |
| 1:14 |
: Which is why Glenn Braggs was the best baseball player ever.
|
| 1:14 |
: Baseball is not a direct applciation of strength and speed the same way a footrace is or weightlifting is
|
| 1:14 |
: Again, prove it or GTFO.
|
| 1:14 |
When using a urinal in a workplace men’s room, if others are present, is it socially acceptable to pass gas audibly? |
| 1:15 |
: Yes. It’s going to come out at some point, do you want it in the actual office space?
|
| 1:15 |
Would you call 911 if your girlfriend’s cat ate your bacon? |
| 1:15 |
: No.
|
| 1:15 |
Who will “win” the Fox News GOP Presidential debate? Trump’s Waterloo or does he march on? |
| 1:15 |
: Rubio
|
| 1:15 |
“Back it up or STFU”. That sounds like a rap song I would jam to. |
| 1:15 |
No presidential brawledge again? Sad! If Ronda Rousey broke Teddy Roosevelt’s arm, would he give a 90 minute speech before or after kicking her ass? |
| 1:16 |
: All that stuff’s not back on my desktop – I clean-installed Windows 10 over the weekend and I haven’t restored everything from backups yet.
|
| 1:16 |
Do you care about Summerslam? |
| 1:16 |
: Only one announced match yet? I’m sure I’ll watch
|
| 1:16 |
How do you best deal with the misery and emptiness of day to day life? |
| 1:17 |
: I greatly enjoy my life. Though I enjoy alcohol so if I found misery and emptiness in my daily life, I’m sure I would use alcohol to anesthetize me.
|
| 1:17 |
There’s a theory going around that Trump is and has been a liberal plant intentionally sabotaging the Republican Party from within. Seems incredible but is a decent explanation of a huge percentage of his actions so far. What % chance would you give this theory? |
| 1:17 |
: I doubt Trump has the discipline to maintain something that wacky for that long.
|
| 1:17 |
Have you met any celebrities (non-baseball)? |
| 1:17 |
: Out of sports? No. I don’t really care about celebrity.
|
| 1:18 |
Is “You spoony bard!” the best insult in a Final Fantasy game? If not, what is? |
| 1:18 |
: Tellah to Edward only second best
|
| 1:19 |
: The best Final Fantasy insult is Kefka’s “This is sickening! You sound like chapters from a self-help book!” after some heroic lines made by protagonists
|
| 1:19 |
What’s your favorite tune to play on each instrument that you play competently? |
| 1:20 |
: let’s see – Piano Mozart 20th piano concerto or A minor Piano Sonata or maybe Beethoven 5th piano sonata (the first c minor one)
|
| 1:20 |
: Or chopin Mazurkas are always fun
|
| 1:21 |
: Baritone horn – Ralph Vaughan Williams Sea Songs because you get a pretty sweet solo
|
| 1:22 |
: Recorder – Vivaldi C minor concerto RV 441. Clarinet – Arnold 2nd clarinet concerto final movement
|
| 1:22 |
Have you ever played Chemin de fer? |
| 1:22 |
: I have not.
|
| 1:22 |
True Detective Season 2 the worst followup season since the 2014 Red Sox? |
| 1:22 |
: Actually haven’t watched it yet – on my todo list
|
| 1:23 |
My girlfriend wants a dog in our very small NYC apartment. She insists on a “normal size” dog which in her parlance means a gigantic one. What’s a breed that “looks big but plays small” that would work as an effective compromise? |
| 1:23 |
: Honestly not enough of an expert of dog breeds to give you a real response that you need to have to make a real life decision
|
| 1:23 |
Easy PED solution, hire Spider-Man |
| 1:23 |
I’ve spent a year out of college living at home with my parents, confused about life, and not willing to start my career. I don’t have my stuff together. What should I do? |
| 1:23 |
: I’m not sure I know you well enough. Find what you love and try to make it a job
|
| 1:23 |
Favorite restaurant appetizers? |
| 1:23 |
: ahi tuna
|
| 1:23 |
I doubt Trump has the discipline to maintain something that wacky for that long. Really?! Have you seen the dude’s hairstyle? |
| 1:24 |
: It doesn’t require discipline to maintain that hairpiece, just not having shame
|
| 1:24 |
If you say something racist and your polling numbers go up, are you a liberal plant or just a reflection of reality? |
| 1:24 |
: Depends
|
| 1:24 |
Simpler explanation is that Trump’s an attention whore and is using the presidential race to improve his Q score |
| 1:24 |
: Doesn’t seem to be working.
|
| 1:24 |
: He’s not exactly mor emraketable for TV shows and stuff now
|
| 1:25 |
Isn’t determining how much PEDs helped a player similar to determining how culpable Iago is for Desdemona’s death in OTHELLO? |
| 1:25 |
Do you have a favorite piano concerto? |
| 1:25 |
: Schumann, but I’m still not very good at it.
|
| 1:25 |
to my similarly-named mtsw, I also live in a small NYC apartment and I’ve found the Shiba Inu to the best breed. Looks like a solid-sized dog, acts more like a cat, loves being in small spaces. Plus doge meme! |
| 1:26 |
: DOGE MEME IN FANGRAPhs~!
|
| 1:26 |
Recorder…eewww. You should try tin whistle. For the chiff, you know. |
| 1:27 |
: It’s a tenor recorder, not the high-pitched soprano ones you see kids have
|
| 1:28 |
: My plumwood recorder has a wonderfully dark timbre
|
| 1:28 |
If you were a professional baseball player, would you consider a classical piano piece for your walkup music? |
| 1:28 |
: Sure. Let’s be different.
|
| 1:28 |
Yordano Ventura is threatening Jose Bautista on Twitter now…this is weird. |
| 1:28 |
Can I be mad at my cleaners for shrinking my laundry or is it just desserts for me being too lazy to do it myself or haul the laundry to a different cleaners a few blocks further away? |
| 1:29 |
: I don’t know how people survive without a laundry machine!
|
| 1:29 |
I genuinely enjoyed Wet Hot American Summer: First Day Of Camp. |
| 1:29 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to head out.
|
| 1:29 |
: Thanks for coming guys, hope to see you all next week! Usual reminder you can read my work at ESPN.com, see projections and chats here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, ZimSmash on Twitch (though much less streaming during baseball season)
|
| 1:29 |
: You guys have a good week!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.”
really? can you steer me towards your source for that information? thanks.