Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/3/15

by Dave Cameron

August 3, 2015

11:59

Dan Szymborski: Baseball time!

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Well, baseball chat time!

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Going to start lightning round strictly at 1 and try to get through it quickly – I have a very busy afternoon today.

12:00

Dan Szymborski: At least I got my sleep back from the deadline over the weekend!

12:01

Comment From Dann
How long before the A’s cut Ike Davis? He’s basically Daric Barton.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Well, they kept Barton around forever

12:02

Comment From Ted
Chances of Severino being in the Yankees’ postseason rotation?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Depends on whether he pitches well or not, really. No need to make any decision yet.

12:02

Comment From Lars
Jesus Montero seems like he’s done everything possible to warrant 100-150 PAs between now and the end of the season. What line, if that’s even possible, does he need to put up to let the M’s pencil him in at 1B next year?

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I think that it’s a little rigid. With the season all but over, the M’s really need to be answering as many questions to help them in 2016

12:03

Dan Szymborski: And so they really need to keep starting him. He’s hit the best he has in the minors since he was actually a prospect after all

12:03

Comment From Matt
How does ZiPS handle park factors in the projections? I noticed Tulos projection went down massively and Reyes’ went way up after the trades regarding Coors Field. Does it use half the park factors for each stat? Just an overall runs factor? Does it differentiate between parks favorable for lefties vs. righties?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: In-season, a simply model of the park factors, the season-to-season model does (conservatively) include L/R

12:04

Comment From Aron
Is a 2-win young, controlled player or a star with a huge contract more likely to get claimed on waivers?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Really depends on the player in question.

12:04

Comment From Bart
If the Mariners don’t trade Austin Jackson in August and don’t extend a QO, what were they thinking not trading him?

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Well, they weren’t.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if the team truly believes the season is over

12:05

Comment From Miggy Azalea
Do you think Jon Gray’s stuff will play in Denver? Any expectations for him?

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic. Coors Field is a mystery – guys you think shouldn’t do well there sometimes survive and the opposite.

12:05

Comment From Tom
Thoughts on the Brandon Moss trade? Cards get fleeced? Or did the price of a slugger just go up?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little high for Brandon Moss, who has an OPS+ that gets a bit worse every year since that breakout, but the Cards also found themselves thrust into the OF market very suddenly by the Holliday injury.

12:06

Comment From Actually Jody Gerut
How the good golly goodness did the Indians manage to get Kaminsky for Moss!?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: It was a nice trade for the Indians.

12:07

Comment From Clint
Taijuan Walker flashes brilliance and… not-so-brilliance. Is that more based on his opponents than anything else at this point?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it’s really opponent based

12:07

Dan Szymborski: He just goes through these stretches were his command is just off

12:08

Comment From Joe
JUNG HO KANG FOR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR!!!!!

12:08

Dan Szymborski: He’s making his case

12:08

Comment From Josh G
More likely to succeed in 2015: Henry Owens or Jon Gray?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: I like Gray better overall, but Owens has an easier environment to get used to

12:09

Comment From Dann
Alright. With Jesse Chavez running out of steam, could they move him to the closer role and use Doubront as a starter?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: They could, but I expect Doubront’s mostly there for 2016 back roation end

12:09

Comment From Matt Williams
If I keep answering every questionably conservative managerial decision with “It was a by the book move”, am I arguing my own way out of a job?

12:09

Dan Szymborski: Books work cheaper

12:09

Comment From Rogerthat
When do the bucs call up Glasgow with Burnett potentially done?

12:10

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do this year, except maybe bullpen in September.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they bring in Happ if there was a real chance Glasnow would get starts

12:10

Dan Szymborski: Even with the AJ issues

12:11

Comment From TKDC
Is Upton a big enough free agent that being tagged with a QO won’t really affect his price?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: It always affects the price, it’s just fsor some guys their contract is so big that you can’t really tell

12:11

Comment From Derek
What’s the deal with Iwakuma? Do the Mariners think that their chances to re-sign are significantly better without trading him, or is it actually in part because ownership didn’t want to trade him? If it’s the latter, that sounds worrisome.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea what the Mariners think, generally.

12:11

Comment From Syed
Which young Cubs stud will end up the most valuable out of Russell/Bryant/Soler/Schwarber/Baez

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Bryant

12:11

Comment From Travis
Chris Taylor has been sent down yet again after an underwhelming stint in the majors. What’s a realistic outcome for him? Trade to the Cardinals where he will develop into a useful player?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine.

12:11

Comment From Compton
How do you rationalize the Padres decision not to sell?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: I don’t. It was dumb.

12:12

Comment From ZachA
The Royals’ role as MLB trouble-maker is great for the game, right? 2015 seems to have a lot of colorful characters (Royals, Harper, A-Rod, Flores, Bumgarner, Grienke) that keep things interesting.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: I enjoy troublemaking

12:12

Comment From AJ Preller
What’s the timeline for GMs getting fired? I want to know when I can expect JZ to either be gone or convince ownership that his five year plan is an eight year plan now.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: No set timeline, depends on the owner. Just as a general rule, I’d say that GMs feel the heat once they’ve gotten their sacrificial manager scapegoat firing out of the way

12:13

Comment From Josh G
How much are you buying RA Dickey’s recent run of good starts? The strikeouts appear to be slowly coming back.

12:13

Dan Szymborski: He’d had a bunch of good starts in a row

12:13

Dan Szymborski: I tried looking at knuckleballers and consistency at one point, but just decided there were two few knuckleballers to make that particular kind of thing work

12:14

Dan Szymborski: But I always felt that he’s a 100ish ERA+ guy at this point, so I expect him to stay around his present seasonal numbers

12:14

Comment From Kim
What would Griffey’s career numbers have looked like if he had taken PEDs?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: As I don’t know if he did or did not take PEDs, it’s hardly something I can guess.

12:15

Dan Szymborski: And nor are we seeing a great deal of evidence that from a playing standpoint that they’re really *that* big a deal

12:16

Dan Szymborski: After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.

12:18

Dan Szymborski: I see it as a *health* issue primarily. It’s good that there’s testing, but primarily so that players aren’t pressured to do something that’s illegal and could cause physical harm

12:18

Comment From Rob
Astros fan here. Thoughts on Mike Fiers?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: Averageish pitcher, cost controlled. Good signing that helps them long-term though no star potential

12:19

Comment From MSW
Thor for ROY? Been saying it for a couple weeks now and it just keeps looking more and more likely. He is quite good at throwing baseballs.

12:19

Dan Szymborski: It’s a tough year for ROY in the NL

12:19

Comment From Homer
The Reds were really dumb to not trade Todd Frazier, right? No way his value will ever be higher than it was this trade deadline

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

12:19

Comment From ZachA
Is Didi Gregorius’ July (.317/.360/.427 + solid D) a sign of him growing as a player/getting more comfortable in NY? Or just random sample size stuff?

12:19

Dan Szymborski: He had a really good month after some really bad play. Won’t read too much into it

12:20

Comment From The Boat
Who is a better pitcher at this moment – CC Sabathia, or recently-designated teammate Chris Capuano?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: It’s damn close.

12:20

Comment From Houzer
If someone claims VMart, should the Tigers just let him go, and take the salary relief? Then go someone useful in the field like Heyward?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

12:20

Comment From Stan
Based on the trade for Cespedes and the near-trade for Bruce, it seems like the Gomez trade really might have collapsed for health reasons. So what do you make of his medicals? The Brewers and Astros don’t seem to see a problem.

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Well, remember, the almost-trade fell t hrough because of financial reasons.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: I’m not inclined to believe that he has a signfiicant hip issue, though it’s possible. Inside baseball, there’s a lot of mocking of the Mets FO.

12:21

Comment From Bryan
Would Jay Bruce pass through waivers and be a potential August trade candidate? It seems like he has a pretty team friendly contract.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: I think he would not pass through waivers.

12:21

Comment From Houzer
Which Ace provided the best return … Price, Cueto, or Hamels?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Hamels I think.

12:22

Comment From TKDC
Has Preller made a single good decision in SD yet?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Some of the non-Kemp moves were perfectly acceptable

12:22

Comment From Pale Hose
What is the appropriate punishment for someone that pays with a check in 2015?

12:22

Dan Szymborski: Bastinado? They’re always ahead of me in th eline at the supermarket

12:22

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like you have to MAKE the check card. The bank just gives you in an envelope

12:23

Dan Szymborski: And I’m a lot more comfortable misplacing my debit card than I would my checkbook. Checks have your account/routing right on them!

12:23

Comment From Julio Pepper
Do you agree with the statement “Wilmer Flores is roughly a league average player making the league minimum?”

12:24

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say league-average, but he’s better than replacement. He’s a lousy defensive shortstop, but not the grand disaster that some people were going on about in APril

12:24

Comment From Bart
Thanks for answering re: Jackson. How can the Mariners not think their season is over? That is mind-boggling.

12:24

Dan Szymborski: The Mariners are visionaries able to turn mindboggling dreams into reality.

12:25

Comment From Chuqui
I’ve read Joe Ross is skilled but streaky… Is he just on a hot streak, or is he legitimately improving to a 1/2 starter type? His strikeout to walk rate is insane. Also does he keep a rotation spot when Stras is back?

12:25

Dan Szymborski: Good, but not this good. I t hink the Nats will find a way to keep starting him as long as he’s dependable though

12:25

Dan Szymborski: It’s really funny how the Nats essentially won a Wil Myers trade between Tampa Bay and San Diego

12:26

Dan Szymborski: It would be going to the bathroom at the end of the Super Bowl and coming back and a team not playing in the Super Bowl is on the field celebrating

12:26

Comment From Compton
For redrafts or for teams going for it in keeper leagues, would you specifically target players whose teams are involved in playoff chases?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Only to the extent of playing time

12:26

Comment From Danny Steinberg
What hitter attributes are conducive to hitting 95+ fastballs well?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Bat speed

12:26

Comment From Food Taco
Are there any innings limits guys I need to worry about this year? I have Syndergaard, McCullers and Nola on my team.

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Mostly mets as they’re going to be very careful with their young pitchers

12:27

Comment From mtsw
Orioles didn’t have to give up a lot to get Gerardo Parra but at the same time he’s barely better than the marginal 4th OF types they have a ton of already. Should they have made a run at Bruce, Gomez or Cespedes given that none of those guys seemed to command a particularly high price either?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: The O’s should have gone big or sold. Parra’s a nice pick up so the deadline wasn’t a disaster, but .500 teams being passive is usually a bad idea

12:27

Comment From MSW
Harvey – deGrom – Syndergaard, who has the best career of the group?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Still think Harvey but I like all of them

12:27

Comment From mtsw
Given Kang’s success do you expect to see more Korean players in the MLB next season?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s adjusted marvelously

12:28

Comment From jocephus
do you think grichuk can/will be in the ROY discussion?

12:28

Dan Szymborski: No, too many big guys in front

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Grichuk has had a huge year, but he’s not gotten the press some others have

12:29

Comment From Stan
Let’s say the Mets remain in contention for the division – how do they manage their young arms?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: They will likely go back to 6 man (they went back to 5 a couple weeks ago) or shorter outings

12:29

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think anybody will just plain be shut down

12:29

Comment From Food Taco
Does Jason Heyward approach $200 million in free agency?

12:30

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’re at the point at which teams will put many nine figure deals in front of corner outfielders that get a majority of their value in defense

12:31

Dan Szymborski: And let’s not forget, defense doesn’t peak. It just declines.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s someone who I believe will end up getting something like 5/95 or 6/120 or something.

12:32

Comment From Syed
Are we currently seeing Anthony rizzo at his peak? Or can he get better?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: He could have a crazy best year or something, but I think this is his peak that he’ll maintain for awhile

12:32

Comment From mtsw
What will/should the Orioles do with the $20M or so (after accounting for expected arb increases) of payroll they’re expected to free up this offseason?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: Depends on where the market is

12:32

Comment From Danny Steinberg
Do you think projections like ZiPS could be more robust if they also considered Hit f/x and plate discipline statistics in their projections for hitters?

12:33

Dan Szymborski: I do have some plate discipline numbers in there. But each of these data gains give us smaller benefits – the low hanging fruit is the most important part of the projection.

12:33

Comment From ZachA
K. Bryant (3.4 WAR), M Duffy (3.2 WAR), J Kang (2.7 WAR), J. Pederson (2.7 WAR), R. Grichuk (2.7 WAR), N. Syndegaard (2.4 WAR). Pretty sick competition for NL RoY.

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Great year for rookies.

12:33

Comment From mtsw
How many QOs will the Orioles’ free agents get? Chen and Wieters both look like real edge cases.

12:34

Dan Szymborski: I think they may give Chen an offer and not give Wieters one

12:34

Comment From Danny Steinberg
What do you think you ZiPS does better than Steamer when it comes to projecting hitters? What do you think Steamer does better than ZiPS?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: I don’t look at ZiPS *vs.* Steamer because with projection systems so close, you can get the wrong ideas about what the differences are between systems

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I just concentrate on making ZiPS the best I can rather than try to reverse-engineer what Cross/Davidson are doing.

12:35

Comment From Happy Fun Ball
So I get the idea that closers are married to the 9th inning with leads. It’s lame, but I get it. So now the Nats went and got Papelbon for the 9th, and this means Storen can only pitch in the 8th with leads? What fresh hell is this?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: Paint-by-numbers managing.

12:35

Comment From Kyle
The Wilmer Flores story has been a lot of fun, but does he ever get his OBP high enough to be an everyday player? The power is nice, and he’s still young, but what can we really expect out of him?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Offense is way down – he can be an everyday player *despite* his OBP, but that’ll limit his upside

12:36

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Do you think a team could sign Heyward and make him a CF for the first few years of the deal? I’d like to see the Cubs give that a try

12:36

Dan Szymborski: I would.

12:36

Comment From Art Vandelay
Carlos Gomez on being an Astro: “These guys make me feel sexy” has there ever been an image turnaround of such epic proportions? The Astros went from bumbling, hateable laughingstock to suddenly the toast of the league in ONE YEAR.

12:36

Dan Szymborski: I like what the Astros did. When they saw the benefit of improving, they were aggressive abou tit

12:36

Comment From Kevin
When you say you generally don’t know what the Mariners are thinking, do you think most of the lack of a logical approach comes from the GM, ownership, or where?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Hard to always tell the exact dynamics – teams don’t like revealing their exact internal thinking and structure even to the really well sourced reporters like Robothal

12:37

Dan Szymborski: But as a whole, the Mariners don’t really have a coherent plan, as far as I can tell

12:38

Comment From BillyBuffoon
What is the best procedure for selecting cat names — pick a name you like in advance, choose a name based on the cat’s personality, or other?

12:38

Dan Szymborski: Oops, t hat was for lightning round

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I just pick a name and whether or not it comes true, whatever

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Nobody asks me if Dan is a suitable name fo rme

12:39

Comment From Matt
Is Grichuk good? He is 3rd in hit velocity and and it hitting the ball hard.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: He’s looking quite good

12:39

Comment From mtsw
Is the reason we don’t see MLB talking more about a possible Brooklyn expansion team that they don’t want to devalue the Mets before the Wilpons sell?

12:39

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think MLB has the stomach to get into a fight with NY teams

12:40

Comment From Doug
How soon do teams put players on waivers to make them eligible for August trades?

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Usually very quickly – there’s no benefit to waiting

12:40

Comment From Houzer
Assuming the Tigers head into 2016 with Norris, JV, Anibal, and Greene/Fulmer locked into the rotation- are they in the Sign an Ace or bust mode? Not sure if signing a 2nd tier SP would help them enough

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Again, depends on what happens in the offseason. Too many variables in August

12:40

Comment From baltic wolf
IMO Griffey didn’t use PEDs. Obviously hard to know, but he put on weight in the places men over 30 usually put on weight and no discernible gain in muscle mass. And he didn’t recover from the injuries he suffered rapidly—-another feature of PED users.

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Take the list of MLB and minor leaguers busted for steroids. Now, how many of those guys were talekd about beforehand because of generic circumstantial evidence?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: you test for PEDs with science

12:42

Dan Szymborski: This isn’t science. It’s applying some generic stereotype of 1980s east germans arbitrarily to players.

12:43

Dan Szymborski: If the eye test meant anything, then there would be someoen watching these guys that would be able to make predictive statements baout future drug testing positives. Haven’t seen any

12:44

Dan Szymborski: Maybe there are people that totally looked at Everth cabrera and saw steroids. I doubt it.

12:44

Comment From Mark S. Truman
Other than a Padre, who was the biggest not-traded surprise this year.

12:44

Dan Szymborski: Byrd

12:44

Comment From Art Vandelay
I drank a lot of beer and played a lot of Mario Superstar Baseball on GC this weekend. Have you played, and who is your favorite player? Luigi for me, with Yoshi a very close second (bunt singles for days)

12:44

Dan Szymborski: I did not play that game

12:44

Comment From BillyBuffoon
Brandon Moss deal – overpay for the Cards, or in line with trade deadline market? And does the deal look better based on non-publicly-available batted ball data?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: Overpay, but the cards didn’t have a lot of time to look at plan bs

12:44

Comment From Compton
Do baseball teams provide full medical coverage for their players, including minor leaguers? Like, I’m sure if they get hurt on the job, it’s covered, but what about stuff like a sinus infection or a yearly checkup? Do they have to pay a copay to see a physician?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the organization. You get much better care when you become an MLBPA member

12:45

Comment From This Guy
Taijuan Walker or Daniel Norris, RoS?

12:45

Dan Szymborski: Walker probably, Norris is a little rawer right now.

12:45

Comment From TKDC
It’s impossible to say when a player is not using PEDs, so those data are meaningless.

12:45

Dan Szymborski: There’s *no* time frame

12:45

Dan Szymborski: And, of course, the null hypothesis is no effect.

12:46

Dan Szymborski: If what you say is true, then PED testing itself is meaningless

12:46

Dan Szymborski: If we can’t say that a group of players just busted for PEDs is no less likely to be using PEDs the next year, then there’s no purpose whatsoever for drug testing for performance purposes.

12:48

Comment From Mark S. Truman
3 things about Flores: He’s only 23. Daniel Murphy is a free agent. There are no decent 2B free agents next year.

12:48

Comment From mtsw
Is literally sitting in a dark room doing nothing a more productive use of my time than trying to explain basic sabrmetrics to people on the /r/baseball subreddit?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I actually don’t follow that subreddit

12:49

Comment From jake
so the nats basically cashed in the money in the bank contract during the rays-padres trade

12:49

Comment From Danny Steinberg
Follow up to the 95+ mph fastballs question, is there data on bat speed somewhere?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Bat speed itself, not aware

12:50

Comment From dom
Do you think any teams have altered their baseball operations decisions based on data statcast has provided yet?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: I think that most ops are still getting a feel for what the data mean.

12:50

Comment From Oboy
Do too many fans overvalue the “clubhouse” guys? Valencia being DFA’d doesn’t make a lot of sense, but the argument that it’ll ruin the clubhouse is just plain dumb.

12:50

Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:51

Comment From Rich
Beeston will be out in Toronto this off season. So too will the 5 year policy (hopefully). Think they make a huge splash and re-sign Price?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they will.

12:51

Comment From Peskys Pole
Should we just write this year off for Porcello or do youthink he can come back from the DL and at least hold his own for the last couple of months?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: cautiously optimistic for next yea. this year not so much

12:51

Comment From Alex
Are you a fan of Titus Andronicus? If so what do you think of their new album?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: I am, but i haven’t listend to new album yet

12:51

Comment From Bigglesworth
Thoughts on Latos start yesterday.Is the 1 K worrying ?

12:51

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry about a start.

12:52

Comment From Art Vandelay
Off that NL RoY year list, is Duffy the player most likely to drop off a cliff next year? Or is he actually a good player?

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll maintain a lot of his improvement, though his future is decidedly lesser than Bryant, Pederson, Thor, etc

12:53

Comment From Josh G
Has Ryan Braun shown enough in 2015 where the Brewers might be able to find a trade partner in the offseason?

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Not really. Signing him to an exxtension that didn’t even *start* for 5 years was pretty stupid

12:54

Dan Szymborski: Rmeember, he’s signed through 2020

12:55

Dan Szymborski: His last star season was 2012. Would someone give him 5/110 this offseason? I don’t think so.

12:55

Dan Szymborski: I think the Brewers still have to offer a significant chunk of dough to get any prospect of note

12:56

Comment From BillyBuffoon
Will the Reds bottom out like the Phils did? Seems like they are holding when they should be selling.

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Not this year, but eventually. The Reds still have more players that dont’ suck than the Phils do or did last yera

12:56

Comment From Josh G
Do teams take steps to prevent leaking of trade information, or do they not really care?

12:57

Dan Szymborski: It’s tough. People in baseball like to talk

12:57

Comment From Mark S. Truman
I didn’t see any PED like visuals from Ryan Braun. I think looking at a guy and trying to determine if they used PEDs is the wrong way to do it.

12:58

Dan Szymborski: Yes. The way to determine PED use is actual science, not a dumb concoction of circumstances and stereotypes

12:58

Dan Szymborski: If you just took the circumstances around Roger Maris, removed the name and the years, people would automatically assume he used steroids

1:00	Dan Szymborski: I mean let’s see: – Had a breakout season immediately after Dianabol was introduced to United States. – Suddenly doubled his home run output – Broke down physically in his early 30s – Had instances of anger with home fans before being traded – Died young of cancer

1:01	Dan Szymborski: Now, if you told someone all these facts without them knowing who they referred to and asked “do you think that person used steroids?” You’ll get a lot of people saying yes

1:01	Dan Szymborski: But it would be stupid. That’s not science.

1:01	Comment From mtsw Played Rocket League? Thoughts?

1:01	Dan Szymborski: Have not yet

1:01	Comment From Jim There are SO many problems with making any conclusions about PED performance from the tiny sample of caught PED users. As a whole they don’t perform better, therefore PEDs don’t help performance is pretty weak.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: There are a lot, both in the majors and minors

1:02	Dan Szymborski: But again, the null hypothesis is no effect

1:02	Dan Szymborski: It can tell us enough to that we fail to reject the null hypothesis of no effect

1:02	Comment From baltic wolf Honestly Dan, the East German women looked like men. Not an apt comparison. BTW, ARod never failed a drug test. Bosch said he could beat any drug test, so I don’t see how “science” helps. Cheaters use science as well.

1:02	Dan Szymborski: If science fails to catch cheaters, then nothing catches drug cheaters.

1:03	Dan Szymborski: Science not working for a situation doesn’t mean dumb observations work.

1:03	Dan Szymborski: That’s like saying “Science hasn’t been able to stop pancreatic cancer very effectively. That means faith healers or guys that piss in 7-Up and make you drink it can stop pancreatic cancer.”

1:03	Dan Szymborski: You think you can identify PED users better than science? Prove it.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Back it up or STFU.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Post on a website somewhere the next players to be busted for PEDs, based solely on physical observations of tha tplayers.

1:04	Dan Szymborski: Link it here next week and I’ll post it.

1:05	Dan Szymborski: This is a chat of science and facts, not complete made-up bullshit.

1:06	Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s go to the Lightning Round as I’m on a tight sched this afternoon.

1:06	Dan Szymborski: The rules are as usual: I am required to answer any off-topic question given, no matter how stupid, so long as it’s not one of the specifically exempt categories (very explicit, work-related)

1:06	Comment From Andy Did you see the VOD of Kripp’s crazy brawl game this weekend? Hearthstone, man.

1:06	Dan Szymborski: Yup, that was hilarious. Saw it in his youtube

1:07	Comment From Trevor Favorite album(s) of 2015?

1:07	Dan Szymborski: I can’t completely say as I’m a few months behind

1:07	Dan Szymborski: Baseball season reduces my music listening time

1:08	Dan Szymborski: But the two (non-classical) albums I’ve listened to the most this year so far that were released this year were The Decemberists What a Terrible World, What a Beautiful World and Belle and Sebastian Girls in Peacetime Want to Dance

1:08	Comment From Matt When playing piano, do you have trouble fingering the white keys between the black keys in keys that require it? I have trouble not striking the neighbor keys. Any advice to deal with that?

1:09	Dan Szymborski: How high up are you striking the keys? The farther you’re up the key, the less control you have over the tone

1:09	Dan Szymborski: It’s not a problem I have, so I can’t relaly give much useful advice there

1:10	Dan Szymborski: It does sound to me like you’re playing with a fairly rigid wrist, which can get you in trouble

1:10	Comment From mtsw What’s the maximum number of pets a person can own before you can conclude beyond doubt that person is insane?

1:10	Dan Szymborski: I pet per 500 square feet.

1:10	Dan Szymborski: 1

1:10	Comment From Sgt. Pepper I got a new computer and I can’t remember how to make CIL not upside down…

1:10	Dan Szymborski: Neither do I

1:11	Comment From BillyBuffoon Le Creuset or Staub?

1:11	Dan Szymborski: Not enough an expert, though I do have a dutch oven from the former that I’m very happy with

1:11	Comment From Sgt. Pepper How much info do you think the Rosenthal’s of the world have but don’t release?

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Reporting involves sifting through a lot of rumors and both solid things. And people in baseball will frquently work media, too

1:12	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Fact of Fiction: Rogers Hornsby was named Rogers because there were originally two of him, but he ate his twin in utero, absorbing his powers.

1:12	Dan Szymborski: INever considered this before, but I could totally see this

1:12	Comment From Johnny5Alive Willie Mays and Hank Aaron used greenies. Everyone stop bitching. Jesus christ

1:12	Comment From Compton “Dan Szymborski the Science Guymborski”

1:12	Dan Szymborski: Worst TV show ever.

1:12	Comment From Art Vandelay Is this really FG? Someone claiming the eye test is the best way to identify PED users? BRB gonna search for Ken Griffey Jr plus acne

1:13	Comment From Joe Do you have any writing on your development of ZiPs that I can read? Or is that mostly hush hush?

1:13	Dan Szymborski: I haven’t written much about the actual development – I don’t write meta-type things very often.

1:13	Dan Szymborski: The 10 things I learned from making a projection system on THT is probably the most I’ve written about it

1:14	Comment From Jim I’m not saying “look at the buff guy he is roided” but saying drugs that are scientifically proven to make you stronger and faster don’t help you in baseball, based on a sample that’s problematic for multiple reasons? Those things are both silly.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Which is why Glenn Braggs was the best baseball player ever.

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Baseball is not a direct applciation of strength and speed the same way a footrace is or weightlifting is

1:14	Dan Szymborski: Again, prove it or GTFO.

1:14	Comment From Chuqui When using a urinal in a workplace men’s room, if others are present, is it socially acceptable to pass gas audibly?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s going to come out at some point, do you want it in the actual office space?

1:15	Comment From Josh G Would you call 911 if your girlfriend’s cat ate your bacon?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: No.

1:15	Comment From mtsw Who will “win” the Fox News GOP Presidential debate? Trump’s Waterloo or does he march on?

1:15	Dan Szymborski: Rubio

1:15	Comment From Vance “Back it up or STFU”. That sounds like a rap song I would jam to.

1:15	Comment From Joe No presidential brawledge again? Sad! If Ronda Rousey broke Teddy Roosevelt’s arm, would he give a 90 minute speech before or after kicking her ass?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: All that stuff’s not back on my desktop – I clean-installed Windows 10 over the weekend and I haven’t restored everything from backups yet.

1:16	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Do you care about Summerslam?

1:16	Dan Szymborski: Only one announced match yet? I’m sure I’ll watch

1:16	Comment From Guest How do you best deal with the misery and emptiness of day to day life?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: I greatly enjoy my life. Though I enjoy alcohol so if I found misery and emptiness in my daily life, I’m sure I would use alcohol to anesthetize me.

1:17	Comment From mtsw There’s a theory going around that Trump is and has been a liberal plant intentionally sabotaging the Republican Party from within. Seems incredible but is a decent explanation of a huge percentage of his actions so far. What % chance would you give this theory?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: I doubt Trump has the discipline to maintain something that wacky for that long.

1:17	Comment From L. Scott Have you met any celebrities (non-baseball)?

1:17	Dan Szymborski: Out of sports? No. I don’t really care about celebrity.

1:18	Comment From @RationalMLBfan Is “You spoony bard!” the best insult in a Final Fantasy game? If not, what is?

1:18	Dan Szymborski: Tellah to Edward only second best

1:19	Dan Szymborski: The best Final Fantasy insult is Kefka’s “This is sickening! You sound like chapters from a self-help book!” after some heroic lines made by protagonists

1:19	Comment From BillyBuffoon What’s your favorite tune to play on each instrument that you play competently?

1:20	Dan Szymborski: let’s see – Piano Mozart 20th piano concerto or A minor Piano Sonata or maybe Beethoven 5th piano sonata (the first c minor one)

1:20	Dan Szymborski: Or chopin Mazurkas are always fun

1:21	Dan Szymborski: Baritone horn – Ralph Vaughan Williams Sea Songs because you get a pretty sweet solo

1:22	Dan Szymborski: Recorder – Vivaldi C minor concerto RV 441. Clarinet – Arnold 2nd clarinet concerto final movement

1:22	Comment From Eric Have you ever played Chemin de fer?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: I have not.

1:22	Comment From mtsw True Detective Season 2 the worst followup season since the 2014 Red Sox?

1:22	Dan Szymborski: Actually haven’t watched it yet – on my todo list

1:23	Comment From mtsw My girlfriend wants a dog in our very small NYC apartment. She insists on a “normal size” dog which in her parlance means a gigantic one. What’s a breed that “looks big but plays small” that would work as an effective compromise?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: Honestly not enough of an expert of dog breeds to give you a real response that you need to have to make a real life decision

1:23	Comment From Cain Marko Easy PED solution, hire Spider-Man

1:23	Comment From Confuso I’ve spent a year out of college living at home with my parents, confused about life, and not willing to start my career. I don’t have my stuff together. What should I do?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I know you well enough. Find what you love and try to make it a job

1:23	Comment From Sid Favorite restaurant appetizers?

1:23	Dan Szymborski: ahi tuna

1:23	Comment From FP I doubt Trump has the discipline to maintain something that wacky for that long. Really?! Have you seen the dude’s hairstyle?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t require discipline to maintain that hairpiece, just not having shame

1:24	Comment From Liberal Plantasia If you say something racist and your polling numbers go up, are you a liberal plant or just a reflection of reality?

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Depends

1:24	Comment From BillyBuffoon Simpler explanation is that Trump’s an attention whore and is using the presidential race to improve his Q score

1:24	Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem to be working.

1:24	Dan Szymborski: He’s not exactly mor emraketable for TV shows and stuff now

1:25	Comment From Vance Isn’t determining how much PEDs helped a player similar to determining how culpable Iago is for Desdemona’s death in OTHELLO?

1:25	Comment From Joe Do you have a favorite piano concerto?

1:25	Dan Szymborski: Schumann, but I’m still not very good at it.

1:25	Comment From MSW to my similarly-named mtsw, I also live in a small NYC apartment and I’ve found the Shiba Inu to the best breed. Looks like a solid-sized dog, acts more like a cat, loves being in small spaces. Plus doge meme!

1:26	Dan Szymborski: DOGE MEME IN FANGRAPhs~!

1:26	Comment From BillyBuffoon Recorder…eewww. You should try tin whistle. For the chiff, you know.

1:27	Dan Szymborski: It’s a tenor recorder, not the high-pitched soprano ones you see kids have

1:28	Dan Szymborski: My plumwood recorder has a wonderfully dark timbre

1:28	Comment From Joe If you were a professional baseball player, would you consider a classical piano piece for your walkup music?

1:28	Dan Szymborski: Sure. Let’s be different.

1:28	Comment From Guest Yordano Ventura is threatening Jose Bautista on Twitter now…this is weird.

1:28	Comment From mtsw Can I be mad at my cleaners for shrinking my laundry or is it just desserts for me being too lazy to do it myself or haul the laundry to a different cleaners a few blocks further away?

1:29	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how people survive without a laundry machine!

1:29	Comment From MSW I genuinely enjoyed Wet Hot American Summer: First Day Of Camp.

1:29	Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out.

1:29	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming guys, hope to see you all next week! Usual reminder you can read my work at ESPN.com, see projections and chats here at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, ZimSmash on Twitch (though much less streaming during baseball season)

1:29	Dan Szymborski: You guys have a good week!

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nate

8 years ago

“After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.”

really? can you steer me towards your source for that information? thanks.

-4

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG