Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/13
11:58 |
: Is party time.
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11:58 |
: One week, I’m going to do a very angry chat with no explanation, just to confuse people. But not today.
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11:58 |
Dan, Dan, he’s our man. If he can’t do it, someone else probably could with a lot less snark…. |
11:59 |
: Me snarky? I’m a regular Huell Howser. I love everything and everybody.
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11:59 |
: And everything farts sunshine rainbows and magical leprechauns with hats of love and mutual respect all the time.
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11:59 |
As a heads-up I’ll be asking lots of q’s about fringy guys this week. Hope that’s cool. |
11:59 |
: You mean Bashar al-Assad fringy?
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12:00 |
: TACTICAL MISSILE STRIKE DAYTON MOORE’S HOUSE
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12:00 |
ROC – Rizzo or Goldy? |
12:00 |
: Goldschmidt, simply because he’s safer
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12:01 |
Dan old buddy |
12:01 |
: Old, I’m 35! And I’m not your buddy, pal
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12:02 |
do you answer fantasy questions |
12:03 |
Eyeballing it, Yusmeiro Petit had about a 93ish FIP+ coming in. Has his current season translated well or too many homers in the PCL? SF seems like a great D/park for him to carve out a niche. |
12:03 |
: Yeah, but not too many as they’re very specific to the person
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12:03 |
: Don’ thave it off hand and I’m multi-tasking, can you ask me on twitter
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12:03 |
Nah, Meir Kahane fringe-y. Thoughts on the American Nazi Party? What Prison gang would you be most likely to join? |
12:04 |
: I’m kind of aryan
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12:05 |
Why have BIS plate discipline numbers changed so much relative to the Pitch F/X numbers over the past few years? |
12:05 |
: You have different algorithms – I haven’t actually checked to see the differences
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12:06 |
Going to have to bite the bullet and drop someone I don’t want to. Drop Asbrubal, Headley or McCann. Keeping in mind that the guy I’m playing against has a black hole at C and would pick up McCann. |
12:06 |
: Ouch
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12:06 |
: Sorry, phone call from editor
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12:06 |
: Honestly, in a redraft, it might be Headley that has to go
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12:07 |
: Asdrubal’s expectation going forward is still higher than his season stats and his defense doesn’t hurt you
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12:07 |
I’m not your pal guy… |
12:07 |
: I’m not your pal friend!
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12:07 |
Switching to Dynasty and get to take 2. Trout is a no-brainer, but which stud rookie is the better 2nd, Jose Fernandez (QS) or Puig? More importantly, better real career? |
12:07 |
: I’d probably take Fernandez, but Puig is safer as a htiter.
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12:07 |
I’m not your pal, friend |
12:07 |
how long after starting baseball activities do players typically return to game action? |
12:08 |
: Depends on the exact injury and the circumstances.
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12:08 |
: Don’t take too much into the “resumed baseball activities” announcement.
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12:08 |
Going to need a 1B in a deep pts. keeper league next year. These guys (gulp!) might be available: Belt, Smoak, Alonso, Duda. Awful selection but… |
12:08 |
: Belt’s the best of the group, even in a terrible park.
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12:09 |
What LCS matchups would you like to see? |
12:09 |
: I’d love to see the Detroit vs. Boston showdown
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12:09 |
Mike Trout’s WAR is totally gonna be on the scoreboard once he reaches 10.0, right? |
12:09 |
: You wish
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12:09 |
Why you gotta harsh my mellow like that, man? Also, what would a sweep of Cleveland do for KC’s playoff odds? Or does it depend too much on what everyone else does? |
12:09 |
: Well, it would help obviously, but the problem with a lot of moving parts is that 1 team’s misfortune helps the other guys, not just you
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12:10 |
: If you’r ereading my ESPN piece today, there’s a little graph that shows KC vs. each possible component and you can see quickly how adding up guys that are just barely ahead to KC knocks down the odds
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12:10 |
I’m in a lecture hall and the only power outlets are in the back of the room. My eyesight is bad so I can’t see the board. Do I sacrifice education for Fangraphs chats? |
12:11 |
: I slept through most of my classes and I ended up OK…uh…maybe you should sit closer and pay attention
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12:11 |
If a pitcher, say Ivan Nova for example, has owned the Orioles over 3 starts this season, but gotten destroyed by the Jays over 3 starts, can we expect a continuation of similar results in his 4th start vs both teams? |
12:11 |
: Don’t expect that to continue. Noise crushes the signal
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12:11 |
Related to Petit (since he made a great grab the inning he came in as a D sub), Juan Perez has 8.3 fangraph fielding runs in 134 OF innings. Odds he’s an elite fielder with little bat? (Not asking for a specific zips, these types just fascinate me.) |
12:12 |
: He’s not atrocious offensively – yeah, his minor league numbers are kind of blecch with the PCL knocking ’em down
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12:12 |
: But yeah, ti’s evidence he’s a really good fielder, but don’t draw too much into limitedstats
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12:13 |
The Rays have been using Delmon Young as a clean up hitter. Ummm WTF? |
12:13 |
: Yeah, I’ve been less than pleased by that an analyst, but more than pleased as an O’s fan
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12:13 |
: At least he’s DHing.
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12:13 |
“Microsoft doing a smack talk surface vs. ipad commercial really reeks of sadness. Like a Blue Jays fan talking smack in 2013′ is definitely your best tweet ever. |
12:14 |
: I’m still generally annoyed by Windows 8, so even though I’m a PC guy, my MS love is at a very low level right now
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12:14 |
: At its nadir so to speak.
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12:14 |
: Replaced my old laptop. New one has Windows 8 and it’s just as obnoxious as the preview.
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12:15 |
: Start8 got installed very quickly and I had to get windows 7 drivers for my touchpad because every damn movement had some kind of stupid gesture that did something I did not want.
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12:15 |
: DO NOT WANT
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12:15 |
Does Victorino finish his career as RHH only?Or do the split police arrest him and put him back in LHH purgatory? |
12:16 |
: He’s actually always had big platoon splits – people forget that switch-hitters frequently still have huge platoon splits
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12:16 |
What prison gang would the ZiPS machine join? |
12:16 |
: protective custody I hope. 3930k CPU is expensive to replace.
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12:17 |
Cashner starting @Phi and @Atl or Uehara (w/ Red Sox playing Rays and Yankees) ? |
12:17 |
: Depends on what you need!
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12:17 |
I was talking with a friend about Edgar’s case for the HoF when we saw that Todd Helton was vying for 2500 hits. My friend said that Helton had a great career but not HoF worthy and we compared their statistics. I found that Helton had less WAR than Edgar despite playing for a year longer and having superior offensive numbers. Could you explain this difference to me? Thanks |
12:18 |
: I’d actually put them both in. Helton has more defensive value, but when you take into account the environments, Edgar Martinez has a 147 OPS+ in 8700 PA vs. Helton’s 133 in an extra year
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12:19 |
: And remember, Martinez was a 3B for awhile and wasn’t really as dreadful as advertised – just couldn’t stay healthy playing defense
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12:20 |
Overall, what is the best use of time? |
12:20 |
: The best use of time is to measure the duration of events and the interval between them.
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12:20 |
Do online editors have porkpie hat JPEG’s? |
12:20 |
: I have a porkpie hat!
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12:20 |
Fact or Fiction: Jay Bruce will hit .270/.330/.500 until the end of time? |
12:20 |
: Well, until he declines.
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12:21 |
: Bruce breaks probability. He could hit .540 for half a season and then go hitless the rest of the way just to get back to .270
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12:21 |
Can Will Smith be decent enough against righties to be an elite swingman type? His numbers v. lefties are video-game-y. (Feel free to make Will Smith jokes. I’m lazy.) |
12:23 |
: It’s kind of a new thing for Smith – he had the same splits in the minors this year but before 2013, not much in the way of splits
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12:24 |
: A Will Smith joke is too easy
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12:24 |
: I would instead make a reference to William Smith, the lawyer who attempted to seize power over Hawaii in the 19th century
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12:24 |
The Red Sox could be just as good next year if their only FA move is McCann, with Nava/Carp/Gomes patrolling left and first, JBJ in center, Middlebrooks/Bogaerts in the infield, 6+ starters, and plenty of arms in the bullpen that just need to be utilized correctly. |
12:24 |
: True.
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12:24 |
2013 Pirates: Done? |
12:24 |
: No.
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12:25 |
How come no one ever updates the positional adjustments for WAR? That feels like something that needs updated every year. |
12:25 |
: You want to do it against long-term trends – it shouldn’t fluctuate drasticallys eason-to-season
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12:25 |
Dan, 35 is old. It’s at least post-prime. |
12:25 |
: But not for a writer
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12:26 |
: If I’m in MLB, there has probably been some serious decimation of mankind by a super virus
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12:26 |
Last player to produce back to back 10 WAR seasons, go! |
12:27 |
: Did Yaz do it? If not, I’m positive Mays did
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12:27 |
Its ok Dan if I have any questions about the course material I’ll just ask you instead of the professor. |
12:27 |
: Remember, I did a lot of drinking and sleeping in college.
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12:27 |
Does it burn anyone else’s ass that Castellanos is sitting in favor of Matt Tuiasusopo, who proved Voros’ Law in April/May and then went back to being Matt Tuiasusopo? |
12:27 |
: It annoys the hell out of me, though if it causes physical pain to your anus, you should visit a physician.
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12:28 |
: You don’t want to confuse an enlarged prostate with Tuiasosopo.
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12:28 |
: Bad players aren’t metastatic unless Dayton Moore has money to spend.
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12:29 |
: (or Ruben Amaro)
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12:29 |
Have you seen Scooter Gennett, if so, what do you think…so far his numbers are great? |
12:29 |
: I first saw him in 2010. I was kind of disappointed that he was larger than someone nicknamed Scooter should be.
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12:30 |
: I was expecting him to be much smaller, like David Eckstein who sleeps in an empty box of matches at night
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12:30 |
: He’s not *this* good though. I think he’s more likely to be a role player in the long tern
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12:30 |
Safe to say that most would highly debate individual awards, so who do you think has actually had the best rookie season? |
12:31 |
: I’d go with Jose Fernandez over Puig, Puig’s made it a fight, but Fernandez has been just too good and has benefit of more time
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12:32 |
: Now, AL, that’s more itneresting
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12:33 |
: No super obvious selection. Leonys Martin doesn’t have eyepopping numbers (but a good case). Might get to Wil Myers
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12:33 |
Nate McClouth or Rajai Davis better fantasy options than Josh Hamilton RoS? |
12:34 |
: I’d still take Hamilton.
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12:34 |
: Unless you need the SB
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12:34 |
can you tell me more cool things about mike trout please |
12:34 |
: Hitler actually won WWII, but Mike Trout uppercut him through time and we’re now on the good timeline, like that episode of Yesterday’s Enterprise with Christopher McDonald
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12:35 |
Is Kershaw’s peak going to be higher than Verlander’s? |
12:35 |
: Possibly. You could argue it already is.
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12:35 |
I had to activate Roy Halladay today. Did I just ruin my season? |
12:35 |
: It’s worth a test. If you activated him, you’re probably not dominating.
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12:35 |
Has Junior Lake at least earned a chance to prove he’s not an everyday major leaguer? |
12:35 |
: Yes
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12:35 |
What is Trout’s prime going to look like and could he actually average at least 9.0 WAR a year for his career? |
12:36 |
: It’s dangerous to assume growth – the thing about superstars is that once they flourish, they don’t just keep getting better or anythign
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12:36 |
Any thoughts on Hurdle actually thinking that Garret Jones is a decent DH in Texas? |
12:36 |
: It’s not like they have David Ortiz hanging around.
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12:37 |
How many home runs would Mark McGwire have hit if he played his home games in pre humidor coors? |
12:37 |
: That’s what the baseball-reference player neutralizer thingy is for!
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12:37 |
With 3b covered and Murphy under contract through 2014, what do you think the mets ultimate plan with flores is/should be? |
12:38 |
: If they’re comfortable enough with him playing 2B, Murphy won’t stop them.
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12:38 |
Helton is going to get the Larry Walker treatment and be punished because Coors. Not that I necessarily think he’s deserving anyway. |
12:38 |
: I think he is. Problem is, Walker was an even better candidate.
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12:38 |
: Let’s be honest, the BBWAA voting is fucking awful.
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12:39 |
: Yeah, I’m supposed to watch the language, but there’s just no other word to describe how awful they are.
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12:39 |
: Last year’s vote is like having a buffet of wonderful dishes from chefs with Michelin stars, and isntead you consider taking the play-doh topped with gravy (Morris) and decide in the end to eat nothing and starve.
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12:39 |
If AROD helps power the yankees into a playoff spot Bud Selig will…..? |
12:40 |
: I’m hoping stamp his feet like Rumplestiltskin and split in two
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12:40 |
If you lived in Oakland/Texas and could only buy 1 playoff ticket, would go to the Wildcard game, or game X of the divisional series? |
12:40 |
: Wildcard game. It’s the only game you know ahead of time will be an elimination game.
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12:40 |
What do you have to say for yourself on declaring V-Mart done? |
12:40 |
: I’m glad he’s not!
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12:40 |
: He’s been crushing.
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12:40 |
: Let’s be honest, he looked like warmed over feces early on.
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12:41 |
How come more people aren’t talking about HOmer Bailey’s breakout year? Not enough wins? |
12:41 |
: It’s been excellent but not crazy-awesome. And a lot of people remember Homer Bailey, Eternal Pitching Prospect
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12:42 |
: Gregg Jefferies actually became a pretty good player, but nobody cared
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12:42 |
I don’t think he can ever live up to his contract, but how much would you anticipate Werth dropping off offensively? How much of his value, strictly in terms of this season, can be attributed to his above-average HR/FB percentage? |
12:42 |
: He’ll still drop off, though the outlook has improved. Still have the oldest years in his contract to go and even with his 2013, he’s actually slightly behind his contract so far
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12:42 |
Whats the deal with patrick corbin lately? Just a streak of bad luck or was he pitching way above bis head to begin with? |
12:43 |
: The boring answer here – the middle.
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12:43 |
Will Yu Darvish ever fix his issues with the long ball? |
12:43 |
: Probably not. But lots of great pitchers give up a few more HR than you’d like
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12:44 |
: Could the Rangers start scoring some damn runs for him? His start against Oakland sucked, but Texas didn’t score anything against some pretty awful teams before that
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12:44 |
: And now he’s not getting his 14.5 wins, so I lose that bet.
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12:44 |
Are Harper’s injuries to his knee and hip concerning that he might end up shorting his potential? |
12:44 |
: Not that degree. Yet.
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12:44 |
Is there an “elite swingman type?” Isn’t that like Hall-of-Fame backup catcher?” |
12:45 |
Those Blue Jays fans were probably bragging about them being the linear World Series Champions, if you assuming baseball was like boxing. |
12:45 |
There’s a player named Kevin Pillar, lol. Is that some made up publicity stunt for Intentional Talk? |
12:45 |
Do you think the current Cardinals rotation will be the starting 5 next year (Wainwright, Miller, Lynn, Kelly, Wacha)? |
12:46 |
: Not a bad guess.
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12:47 |
: Trying to remember Westbrook’s option terms off-hand and I can’t
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12:47 |
: Luckily, I think it’s finally dawned on them that he sort of sucks.
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12:47 |
: ($1m buyout if team declines)
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12:47 |
: So that’s not worth worrying about
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12:47 |
Please remind Buck Showalter that Morse cannot play the field and shouldn’t be used there ever. He’s played Left and Right field almost exclusively since he was acquired, while DHing only once. Thank you. |
12:49 |
: How much does a full page ad cost? If not too much, I could buy a few in the Baltimore Sun every year bitchily snarking about things that are annoying me.
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12:50 |
: Of course, it’s too much, I’m sure.
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12:50 |
What are the NL Central standings at the end of the season? |
12:50 |
: St. Louis, Pitt, Cin
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12:50 |
Dan, one could argue that you haven’t even hit the typical writer’s prime |
12:50 |
: Bingo. I have so much untapped anger and my liver is still functional
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12:50 |
What are the odds of the Pirates finishing tied for the second wild card at 81 wins and losing game 163 to continue the streak? |
12:51 |
: Next to none. They have an 8 game lead on the Nats.
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12:51 |
: Wild card game most likely Pit vs. Cin
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12:51 |
: And almost certainly between the 2 non-division-winning NL Central teams
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12:51 |
10+ WAR seasons…. Bonds 01-04 |
12:52 |
: My memory of bWAR is better than fWAR. Though I’m goign to get into trouble for that.
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12:52 |
Does ZiPS run career projections as well? If yes, who has been the most interesting to you that you have seen? |
12:52 |
: ZiPS does. Stanton’s projections are always interesting becuase of the younger crowd, he has so much pure power and got to use it at a young age
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12:52 |
The Fangraphs standings page has the Red Sox at 30% chance of WS champions. That seems high. Does ZIPS really love them or something? |
12:53 |
: Those aren’t ZiPS odds.
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12:53 |
: I do my own thing.
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12:53 |
: I have a world series feature in an upcoming ESPN mag, assuming it survives the final cuts.
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12:53 |
Is Yadier Molina a HOFer? |
12:53 |
: A little premature, especially because the voting is full of dumb at the moment.
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12:53 |
Come on Dan. Bonds produced a 4 season streak of 12.5,12.4,10.1,11.7 WAR season from 2001-2004 |
12:54 |
: Sorry, had remembered off-hand that defensive numbers hated him at that point more than they did
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12:54 |
which players have earned their huge contracts? |
12:54 |
: A-Rod’s first contract was actually right on
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12:54 |
: Of course, the Yankees screwed it up with the extension
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12:55 |
I hope when you get into the BBWAA you get that made into a pin for meet-ups “let’s be honest, the BBWAA voting is fucking awful.” “Hello, Mr. Chass.” |
12:55 |
: I’m probably not doing myself any favors by continually blasting the BBWAA.
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12:55 |
: But I have trouble not commenting on the dumb things I see.
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12:56 |
: And I’ve already given explicit permission on Twitter that if I ever become an angry old crank like Chass, I may be smashed in the head with a shovel.
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12:56 |
McGwire comes out with 737 HRs through the B-R “2000 Coors” tool. |
12:56 |
Would a poll of the general public produce a better HOF than the BBWAA. Has it gotten that bad? |
12:56 |
: It’s quite possible. Lot of silliness in casual fans, of course.
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12:56 |
: I though the ESPN all-time vote we did last year came out pretty well.
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12:56 |
Also, wouldn’t the BBWAA illustrate the modern philosophical problem you could then call “Journalist’s ass.” |
12:57 |
Finally dropped Derek Jeter. It felt good. Now my opponent in 2nd round of playoffs is starting him. Can’t wait to win FPCT |
12:57 |
: If your categories include awkward jumping throws, you’re dead.
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12:57 |
What is your favorite drawing that you have made. |
12:58 |
: I’ll have to find it.
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12:58 |
: Two candidates.
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12:58 |
: First
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12:58 |
:
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1:00 |
:
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1:00 |
Is Jurickson Profar going to end up like Homer Bailey or Gregg Jefferies? |
1:00 |
: Too soon to say that
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1:00 |
Did you see the infield bloop single Ichiro had where Drew dove and still couldn’t get to it? Total craziness |
1:00 |
: I actually did not see tha tplay
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1:00 |
How would Shin Soo Choo’s value change if he was a -5 defender in right rather than a -15.6 in center? |
1:01 |
: He’s more valuable in right – he’s a pretty bad CF. He actually may be better than that in right.
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1:01 |
Are we still expected Bryce Harper to be better than Mike Trout? I mean he is 20, but his platoon splits are vomit inducing….guy can’t hit lefties. |
1:01 |
: I’m not.
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1:01 |
: Nothing should be projected to be better than Trout.
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1:01 |
Have you played any EUIV yet? If so what do you think. I think its incredible. |
1:01 |
: It’s fun, but I haven’t had time to play a ton yet!
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1:01 |
Who’s your NL ROY? |
1:02 |
: Fernandez
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1:02 |
Once Hicks figures it out will the Twins OF be Hicks, Presley, Arcia? Willingham is looking pretty washed up. |
1:02 |
: I still think teh Twins don’t fully realize how much they suck.
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1:02 |
Back to the D. Young thing batting cleanup for the Rays. Almost any other team would be skewered by the analytical community but the Rays seem to mostly get a pass. It’s bad enough that they even signed him for the organization but now the brilliant J. Madden is putting him in the lineup> How do you explain their moronic move that could contribute to their missing the postseason? |
1:02 |
: It’s a small enough difference, but it’s a really bad move.
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1:02 |
Why do you need to buy adspace your job is literally to write things that people read. But if not you could always start a kickstarter. |
1:02 |
: Yeah, but an obnoxious newspaper ad really gives me the opportunity to troll.
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1:03 |
Help this Royals fan cling to hope: Where can I look up Colorado’s playoff probability on this date in 2007? |
1:03 |
: I could actually run that, but you’ll have to remind me.
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1:03 |
: I have a gigantic headache and have to get off PC in a few minutes
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1:04 |
Whats your go to beer style? |
1:04 |
: Wheat or a nice pale ale.
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1:04 |
: Though I drink a wide variety of beer.
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1:05 |
: I really don’t like smoked beers.
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1:05 |
Joe Morgan had mutliple 10+ WAR seasons in the 70s |
1:05 |
: But not bWAR!
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1:05 |
Are plate discipline stats available anywhere for minor leaguers? I mean, available to us plebes? |
1:05 |
Minorleaguecentral.com has some of that stuff.
: |
1:05 |
: I mine my own for myself.
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1:06 |
Don’t you just hate those people who laugh at every single mildly amusing thing a professor says. I just want to punch them. |
1:06 |
: I think I had a love/hate relationship with every professor/teacher I ever had.
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1:06 |
: I’m really obnoxious and argumentative.
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1:06 |
The NL Central has gotta be one of the oddest looking division standings we’ve seen. |
1:07 |
Can it be assumed that the answer to “Who was the last person to perform impressive offensive feat X” is more likely than not going to be Barry Bonds. |
1:07 |
Less informed electorate: BBWAA or the American public? |
1:07 |
: I don’t know. The American public isn’t keen on bombing Syria
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1:07 |
: But if you asked BBWAA members, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got confused and voted yes on a missile strike on Suriname.
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1:07 |
I’m curious on your thoughts….Why do we believe PED are bad? I mean I believe it is unfair of elite players like Bonds or A-Rod to use PEDs to move from Hall of Fame players to being top 5 all time players. But for you average player/person, wouldn’t using science,intelligence, and will to conquer natural genetic difference? In fact, most agree PED use just allows your to train harder and longer, Why are we frowning on people for trying harder? Especially for AAAA players trying to break into the big leagues to make a living. Shouldn’t be ban player’s children from playing? Seems like a much more unfair advantage…. |
1:08 |
: It depends. If PEDs have negative side effects, it makes sense for players to restrict what players can use, by agreement.
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1:08 |
: Otherwise, I don’t have many qualms. I don’t care if it’s illegal, for instance.
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1:08 |
Smyly – Doomed to a life in the bullpen? |
1:08 |
: I think so at this point
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1:09 |
so who are your mvps this year? |
1:09 |
: Trout/McCutchen or Kershaw
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1:09 |
If you could had to pick a pseudonym what would it be? |
1:09 |
: Demosthenes Jones. Any multiple syllable word before Jones is awesome.
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1:10 |
: if I have to keep my name, something ridiculous, like Szap Szymborski.
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1:10 |
Do the Pirates win more games in 2014 or 2013? |
1:10 |
: Probably 2013.
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1:10 |
im impressed you knew christopher mcdonald (the real actor’s name) for that episode of STTNG |
1:11 |
: He’s a well-known character actor.
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1:11 |
Ted Williams: 3 straight 11 WAR season and 4 straight 10 WAR seasons in 42, 42, 46 and 47 (didn’t play in 43, 44, 45) damn Hitler. Mays had 4 straight 10 WAR seasons from 62 – 65. WOW, just WOW |
1:11 |
: Yeah, but I figured Mays did it and Mantle earlier, so no need to go that far back
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1:11 |
: I really though that Bonds was in the 9s most of those years off-hand.
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1:12 |
: And on that note, time to go for the week! Sorry for the abbreviated chat
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1:12 |
: But I’ve got a bigger headache than the volume of air displaced by Jeff Francoeur swinging at a slider.
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1:12 |
: See you guys next week!
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1:12 |
I just moved in with a roommate that is apparently the best player on his DOTA team, which is currently in a N. America/Europe tournament, and they are in the finals playing against the European team. How impressed should I be? I keep telling him it’s not fair that they excluded Koreans, but he seems to shrug this off. |
1:12 |
: There’ ssome high level dota playing, you should be impressed
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1:13 |
: Of course, if this is a subdural hematoma or something, I may in fact be dead for next week and someone will have to fill in with nerdy snark.
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1:13 |
: But it’s probably not.
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1:14 |
:
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Bonds was actually close to back-to-back 10 WAR seasons in ’92-’93 as well.