Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat: 10/1/14

Dave Cameron: Alright, so, apologies for the delay.

Dave Cameron: In my defense, I’m still exhausted from last night. Maybe that’s no defense at all.

Dave Cameron: So get mad about the late start, but we’ll go long to make up for it, assuming I don’t pass out first.

Dave Cameron: Chat will kick off in 5-10 minutes, once I get a few more things squared away.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing started.

Comment From Guest
Brewers’ brass are believing they had too many swing for the fences type hitters in the lineup which was the demise of their offense as the season progressed. Your assessment of that perspective?

Dave Cameron: It’s bunk.

Dave Cameron: They dramatically overachieved early on in the season, then regressed to the mean.

Dave Cameron: If they want to win more games, they need better players, and they shouldn’t care too much whether their good players strkeout or not.

Comment From Ed
What gives? Sullivan is on time this week and you’re late? It’s like bizarro FanGraphs!

Dave Cameron: Weird combination of events: I did a radio interview in Toronto at 11:40, which is when I usually launch the chat window. Then Liberty freaked out during the interview, and I spent 15 minutes trying to calm her down. Then my phone rang with a call I had to take.

Dave Cameron: So, yeah. Sorry!

Comment From Matt
when should have Melvin hooked lester last night and why

Dave Cameron: After the 6th, when they took the lead, because tiring starters shouldn’t be protecting one run leads in elimination games.

Comment From Dave
Dave, do you stand by what you wrote about the A’s going for it this year, given all that has happened since?

Dave Cameron: Yep. There was no reason to think the A’s second half collapse was imminent, and all the information at the time suggested that the team was setup for a strong chance at a deep playoff run. It happens.

Comment From Fronk
Do you see Donaldson being traded?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From los
If you could “blame” only one person for yesterdays loss, would it be Lowrie?

Dave Cameron: Melvin, for sticking with Lester too long.

Comment From Bruce
Were any of the 18 bunts last night the right strategy?

Dave Cameron: I’ll do a quick post on this in the afternoon, but there were seven bunts last night, and I only had a problem with two of them.

Dave Cameron: Bunting early is silly. Bunting in extra innings of a tie game is not silly.

Comment From Fronk
Will Samardziza get traded?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see the A’s changing course and deciding to rebuild. They’re a good team that had a bad finish to the year.

Comment From Blasphemer
It’s possible that the A’s would’ve done *worse* had they not traded Cespedes. There. I said it.

Dave Cameron: Not just possible; likely.

Comment From sihtdaertnod
Should Ventura be left off the DS roster?

Dave Cameron: What, no.

Comment From Robert
Are there any instances in which a team has “rented” a player to another? For example, if Team A, who was struggling in July, traded a productive starter to Team B, who was in the playoff hunt, for a prospect. Maybe there’s collateral involved. Then, during the fall, Team B moved the starter back to team A. It seems like a win-win, and I’m surprised we don’t see it more often.

Dave Cameron: You’re not allowed to make trades based on promises of future transactions that aren’t explicitly laid out in the deals. It’s against the rules.

Comment From Guest
Yost getting roasted, but I think you have to disentagle the 2 parts of decision.

Dave Cameron: I have a piece going up at some point today on Fox that defends the Ventura decision to an extent. He’s getting way too much crap for that.

Comment From Henry
How much sleep did you end up getting Dave?

Dave Cameron: About six hours. More than I expected!

Comment From GSon
the trade rumors blather will have Heyward and Stanton as the biggest offseason target.. Can you definitively state neither guy is going anywhere during the coming offseason?

Dave Cameron: The Marlins have said definitively that they aren’t trading Stanton this winter, extension or not.

Comment From Eric
Most frustrating false narrative to come out of last night’s game?

Dave Cameron: The “should have stuck with Shields” argument is the dumbest one I’ve seen.

Comment From Jon
Was Liberty on the radio?

Dave Cameron: Very loudly. She literally followed me around the house barking at me during the interview. I finally had to go upstairs (where she’s not allowed) and close the door.

Comment From Billy Beane
So if Soto doesn’t get hurt, the A’s win that game?

Dave Cameron: Not necessarily. Maybe Soto doesn’t get the RBI single that Norris got. Maybe they still run anyway. Maybe they don’t run and someone hits a HR instead of laying down a bunt. Who knows?

Comment From JPP
How bad does the Addison Russel trade look in hindsight?

Dave Cameron: There’s no reason to judge a decision using hindsight.

Comment From Sirras One
You see a lot of “[Team] asked permission to speak with [coach under contract with another team]” around this time of year. Is that request ever turned down? If so, why?

Dave Cameron: Yes, if it’s a lateral move, a lot of teams will say no. The general rule in MLB is that teams will let their people leave for a promotion, but not if its for the same title.

Comment From Agree or disagree?
Last night’s game was one of the top 10 most entertaining games I’ve ever seen

Dave Cameron: Agree. Maybe top 5.

Comment From Jock
So the A’s were unlucky in the second half, but they were good (as opposed to being lucky) in the first half?

Dave Cameron: They good were and lucky in the first half, and mediocre and unlucky in the second half. Overall, they were a good team.

Comment From Guest
Lot of talk in the Twin Cities in support of Ozzie Guillen as the next Twins manager. Do you have a take on Ozzie as a manager?

Dave Cameron: You don’t want that.

Comment From Jon
How can the A’s improve in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: Upgrade the middle infield.

Comment From Andrew
Is there a metric for “excitement” of a game? You could add the absolute value of change in WPA with each at bat, and this would show which games had the biggest swings in expectation. It’d be nice to see where last night’s game ranked in terms of excitement for post-season games.

Dave Cameron: Average Leverage Index works pretty well.

Comment From Cat Burglar
Harold Reynolds was saying that it makes less sense to bring a normal starter (e.g., Ventura) as a reliever *when there are men on base.* Any merit to this idea?

Dave Cameron: Fun fact: Yordano Ventura, in his only career relief appearance as a big leaguer, came in with a man on first base in the 6th inning. He dominated anyway.

Comment From Heyward wants to know
Who (or what type of player) is the most overrated by WAR?

Dave Cameron: Terrible defensive catchers. So, Ryan Doumit back when he was catching.

Comment From Shawn
Even if you wanted to “defend” Yost bringing in Ventura, weren’t there much better options than that?

Dave Cameron: Yes. It was not the best decision. It was not obviously a disaster either, though.

Comment From Jon
Gut feeling: how much of the 6 A’s called strikeouts last night was Perez’s framing versus Bill Miller?

Dave Cameron: Perez is not a good framer. It was Miller.

Comment From Catoblepas
Who’s chatting tonight?

Dave Cameron: Sullivan and Swydan.

Comment From Tom
Thoughts on the NL WC game tonight?

Dave Cameron: Too much being made about the SPs, not enough about the Pirates significant offensive edge.

Comment From Nick
Should the Mets trade for Jay Bruce while his value is down? He seems like a good fit/likely bounce back candidate

Dave Cameron: The Reds probably agree, so why would they sell low?

Comment From Matt
whats your rationale behind your argument that Melvin kept Lester in to long

Dave Cameron: Basically no starting pticher should ever be allowed to face a line-up a fourth time through the order in the postseason.

Comment From Bip
And it follows that great defensive catchers are most underrated?

Dave Cameron: Correct.

Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
what do you think about the KC- LAA matchup? angels rotation a concern

Dave Cameron: Angels are a better team, but it’s a short series, and so both teams have a chance. I’d say it’s probably 60/40 LAA, or something like that.

Comment From Brad
But what about coming in on one day rest with two on no outs in sudden death game? Why not go herrera/davis/holland for 4 outs each instead of 3 outs each?

Dave Cameron: Agree that would have been preferable. Even using Finnegan or Duffy probably better too. It was not the best choice. It just wasn’t a “WTF you moron!” kind of choice either.

Comment From bob
aramis ramirez to the cubs?

Dave Cameron: Not unless the NL adopts the DH next year.

Comment From Prich
No more than trips through the lineup for Volquez tonight? (unless he’s ridiculously ‘on’?)

Dave Cameron: I’d limit him to 15-18 batters faced.

Comment From Max
Why are there so few, but not zero, bunts against overshifts? It seems to imply they think it’s a good strategy only against a vanishingly small group of pitchers, which strikes me as absurd. Since we’re on the subject of bunts.

Dave Cameron: Bunting for a hit is harder than it looks.

Comment From Guest
Would (Castro/Baez), (Alcantara/Almora), Schwarber, CJ Edwards be enough for Stanton?

Dave Cameron: Not even close.

Comment From Catoblepas
Geez. Are you worried about Jeff potentially dying if the game is at all like last night’s?

Dave Cameron: Tonight is his last chat for the week. I’m taking Friday off to hang out with my wife. We’re trying to keep ourselves from burning out.

Comment From Bip
Couldn’t one also argue that elite relievers are underrated by WAR? By the nature of their job, they pitch in the situations that matter most (even a strict 9th inning close still pitches in very high leverage) so even though part of their value is situational, it’s still a situation that they are put in because of their skill set.

Dave Cameron: Leverage is included in WAR.

Comment From The Big Dipper
What’s a “good” wRc+.

Dave Cameron: 120ish.

Comment From Ned
who is the biggest name to be traded this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Cueto.

Comment From Jim
David Schoeinfield wrote an article during the game entitled, ‘Ned Yost shows why he’s a terrible manager’ in regards to who was brought in to replace Shields. Based on this chat so far, that’s a bit over the top,no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t agree with that at all.

Comment From Fronk
I thought WAR was context neutral?

Dave Cameron: Releiver leverage is an exception, since their own talent dictates that they are used in higher leverage situations, so they “own” that leverage to a dgree.

Dave Cameron: a degree, even.

Dave Cameron: Think of it something like batting order for relievers: good hitters hit at the the top of the order because they’re good hitters, so they get more PAs throughout the year than bad hitters. This gets included into their WAR because they get more opportunities. Better relievers don’t necessarily get more innings, they just get more important innings, and including leverage gives them credit for that.

Comment From Steve
How much of an impact do you think Travis Ishikawa in PNC Park LF will have, especially when you consider than the Pirates will likely have 7 or 8 position players bat from the right side? Dude has 32.2 innings of OF experience and that’s a HUGE left field.

Dave Cameron: Right-handed batters don’t hit balls in the air to left field very often. Pulled balls are grounders, mostly.

Comment From Brad
Does war value offense and defense equally?

Dave Cameron: No. WAR values runs evenly, but there are far more offensive runs to be had than defensive runs in a season. The range of defensive runs in WAR was +22 (Simmons) to -25 (Kemp) this year. The range of offensive runs was something like +60 (Trout) to -35ish (I don’t remember who).

Comment From Bip
“Leverage is included in WAR.” Are you sure? this is what it says in the glossary, I don’t see anything about leverage: WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment + Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

Dave Cameron: That’s for positional players. Leverage is included in pitching WAR, but it only really matters for relievers, since SPs all have leverage indexes around 1 anyway.

Comment From youseriousbro?
Please explain what you mean by “more important innings” I’m no expert, but the last time I checked they tally up all of the runs at the end of the game, and runs from one inning count the same as runs from every other inning.

Dave Cameron: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

Comment From Mike Trout
I’m mad at Fangraphs for reducing my WAR from 8.0 to 7.8 after the season ended. WTF – my defense isn’t THAT bad.

Dave Cameron: UZR updates on Tuesday, so the final update included the last of the defensive ratings being included.

Comment From B
On Ishikawa — more to playing left than shagging fly balls. Huge LCF gap, plus requires range to cleanly field those groundballs on the run

Dave Cameron: Not saying Ishikawa’s defense wont’ be a factor; just see too many people concluding that RH hitters = need for good LF outfield defense.

Comment From The Big Dipper
What is the best barbecue joint in winston salem?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what you’re looking for. if you want Lexington-style pulled pork, a lot of people like Little Richards on Country Club Rd (cash only). If you want non-sauced smoked meat, Honkey Tonk Smokehouse on Jonestown is good. If you want a hybrid blend of types, Big’s is pretty good downtown.

Dave Cameron: Bib’s.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Thanks for writing yesterday’s column “A Few Pieces of Advice for Ned Yost” — at the end of the 5th I told my teenage son that Yost should bring in a reliever to start the 6th otherwise the wheels are going to fall off — he thinks I am now the all-knowing baseball guru.

Dave Cameron: Good thing you didn’t read from my “It’s Time for the Royals to Trade James Shields” piece then!

Comment From Jimbo
What makes pulled pork “Lexington Style”

Dave Cameron: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…

Dave Cameron: BBQ styles are basically all about the sauce here. Lexington style is Vinegar based but has ketchup in there too. Eastern style is just vinegar. Western style can be a few different things, including just ketchup.

Comment From HiddenVigorish
Choosing the last player for a Wild Card roster…would you lean pitcher or position player?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how many of each I had, but you only really need 8 or 9 pitchers for the WC game, so probably position player.

Comment From Phili0p
Better 3b going forward: Rendon or Donaldson?

Dave Cameron: Rendon.

Comment From Matt
Wouldn’t a great pinch hitter be underrated by WAR then? Only brought in in high leverage situations, but not given extra credit for it? Not that pinch hitting specialist is going to have a very high WAR anyway.

Dave Cameron: Yes, but a great pinch-hitter would probably just become an ordinary regular hitter instead.

Comment From Angelino
Do you think Trout will make the necessary adjustments, level his swing a bit, learn to hit high fastballs and return to hitting ~.320? Or is the .280-290 hitting Trout the new Trout?

Dave Cameron: I’m guessing his shift towards power will stay, though he might fix his up-and-in problem and cut down on the Ks somewhat.

Comment From Puppet
Couldnt he just also learn to lay off high fastballs?

Dave Cameron: He had very low contact rates on high fastballs in the zone, though. Can’t lay off pitches that will be called strikes.

Dave Cameron: And high fastballs that miss their spots go over the fence, so even with a high whiff rate, there is value to still chasing to some degree.

Comment From Bip
Craig Kimbrel had a 50 FIP- this year, about the same as Kershaw, in about 1/3 the innings, and was worth 2.2 WAR. Kershaw was worth 7.2. Wouldn’t Kimbrel, by pitching in leverage almost twice as high, extrapolate to more WAR in the same number of innings, if leverage was accounted for?

Dave Cameron: Pitcher WAR isn’t just FIP- multiplied by IP. Kershaw also induced 19 infield flies, which are counted as the same value as additional strikeouts, and there’s the runs-to-wins conversion as well.

Dave Cameron: Looks like Kershaw’s self-created run environment gave him a 7.9 runs to wins conversion, while Kimbrel’s was 9.0.

Comment From Guest
Should McCutchen get extra MVP/value consideration because he played much of the final 2 months of the season with an avulsion fracture?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. It’s a performance award, and a double with a fracture isn’t more valuable than a double without one.

Comment From DTSS
Please include infield flies in FIP or a version of FIP. Would be a more useful stat and make WAR more transparent.

Dave Cameron: There is literally nothing about our version of pitcher WAR which is not transparent.

Dave Cameron: On the position player side of things, the only non-transparent items are UZR/UBR, which we don’t calculate ourselves.

Comment From Eric
“There’s no reason to judge a decision using hindsight.” — you can simultaneously say that a decision made sense at the time while accepting that it turned out poorly.

Dave Cameron: Of course. The second part isn’t judging the decision, though.

Comment From Scott
I’m really not sure you can justify saying your pitcher WAR is transparent when we had no idea there was a leverage component until recently and there’s still no mention of how it’s actually calculated in the glossary (or anywhere else I know of).

Dave Cameron: Neil Weinberg is systematically updating the documentation of on the glossary, and WAR is getting a big overhaul soon. We’ve made it clear numerous times over the years that leverage is included in pitcher WAR. If you feel like our documentation of that has been poor, okay, fair enough. But we’re not hiding anything.

Comment From Scott
Where can we see HOW leverage is included in pitcher fWAR? Honest question.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From DTSS
I just don’t understand why infield flies aren’t in FIP or a FIP-like stat. Would be nice to have them in a comprehensive rate stat in addition to WAR.

Dave Cameron: We didn’t FIP. I think it’s poor form to take a metric that someone else created and popularized, then change the way its calculated solely on our site while keeping the name the same. Once you’ve changed the calculation, you’ve created a new stat, and should call it something else.

Dave Cameron: We didn’t *invent* FIP.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch and write about bunting.

Dave Cameron: Enjoy the game tonight, everyone.