Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/1/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Game 7 Day everyone!

Dave Cameron: Should be a fun night.

Dave Cameron: I’m on live blog duty tonight, so come back and join me as we watch two great teams fight it out for the title tonight.

Dave Cameron: We’ll start this chat in a few minutes.

Charlie Morton: When am I pitching tonight?

Dave Cameron: Let’s say McCullers goes 4-5. Keuchel is probably first guy out of the pen, and he’s probably good for 2. That leaves 2-3 innings for some combo of Morton, Peacock, and Verlander, my guess. Peacock is probably the “closer”, so maybe Morton gets the 7th?

Bleh: How long can/will Jansen go tonight?  Two innings last night seems to knock him down to maybe only 1 tonight.  I don’t envy Dave Roberts

Dave Cameron: I think he’s counting on adrenaline overcoming exhaustion. I doubt he’ll ask Jansen to get 6 outs, but I could see him coming in in the 8th to put out a fire if need be.

Grimace: Odds of seeing Rich Hill for a bit tonight? Threw less than 50 pitches last night obviously

Dave Cameron: Don’t think they’ll need him. With both Kershaw and Wood available as LHP starters out of the pen, plus Watson and Cingrani, they have no shortage of lefty arms.

Dave Cameron: My guess is Roberts hopes for something like Darvish for 5ish, then Watson/Wood for some of the bottom of the order outs, then Kershaw/Jansen when the line-up turns over.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Over/under 3.5 dingers tonight?

Dave Cameron: Under

Jeremy B.: Without being biased by the results, can we say that Dave Roberts bringing his second-best reliever into a high-leverage situation in the fifth inning (with his team TRAILING) was an excellent decision?

Dave Cameron: In the context of winning Game 6, yes, it was a bold call that showed the courage of his convictions. I’ve never seen a manager get booed by his home crowd for a pitching change at this point in the year. Given how bad Morrow was on Sunday, it took some serious stones to take Hill out at 58 pitches and put Morrow in at that point.

Dave Cameron: But, there is an argument that the decision might have been a won-the-battle-lost-the-war decision. By pulling Hill there, he left himself with a potentially weakened pen tonight.

Patagent: Is this the best World Series in recent memory?

Dave Cameron: Last year was amazing.

Dave Cameron: This is up there.

Dave Cameron: I’ll leave it to others to part whether this is better than last year.

stever20: In some ways, with having Wood and Kershaw a day fresher, isn’t this a better insurance policy for the Dodgers in case Darvish wasn’t good?  Especially given the actualities of how the game 6 actually went?

Dave Cameron: They were going to have Kershaw today either way. Having Wood fresh tonight isn’t all that helpful, given that the guys they need to get out crush lefties.

Josh: Where is Morrow in the Dodger’s pitching hierarchy tonight?

Dave Cameron: I would bet we see him, but maybe just for a few batters.

Bobert: Dave, do you think using Wood tonight is a smart move for Roberts?

Dave Cameron: If he pitches much, Darvish probably struggled again.

Hannah Hochevar: Was it just me thinking they should have hit for Verlander with 2 on?

Dave Cameron: Wasn’t two on; the bases were loaded. But no, mathematically, taking the offensive upgrade there is a better play than getting more outs from Verlander. But no manager would have even considered it.

discord: What has more trade value: five years of Boston outfielder Andrew Benintendi or five years of Houston infielder Alex Bregman?

Dave Cameron: Bregman

Guest: Did you agree with Roberts bullpen strategy last night? Riding the big 3 again and pulling Hill early?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t have gone to Kenley in the 8th up two.

Dave Cameron: And tried to steal an inning from one of the lesser guys there.

Guest: Any unexpected gut feelings on tonight?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know why, but I think the Dodgers jump on McCullers and get a big early lead.

Robbie: When would you have taken out Verlander last night?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much when Hinch did.

Patage nt: Which team has been making better in game decisions?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers

Randy: McCullers, Morton and Harris with Keuchel as the lone lefty in the pen. That should be it for the Astros right?

Dave Cameron: I bet Verlander comes in at some point if it’s close

kevinthecomic: Yesterday you had a post about how the dodgers should use darvish in game 6 because otherwise “Roberts would either have to continue to wear out Brandon Morrow, Kenta Maeda, and Kenley Jansen — leaving them less effective for another must-win tomorrow” — so, this is exactly what roberts did — are all 3 going to be less effective tonight?

Dave Cameron: I doubt Maeda even sees the mound tonight

Dave Cameron: And I wouldn’t push Jansen for 2 full innings.

Jeremy B.: Is Kershaw the first Dodger pitcher out of the pen tonight? Maybe to start the 5th? Can’t see any point in saving him for later in the game.

Dave Cameron: With Darvish being a righty, I bet they’re hoping to get 23 batters faced out of him, and as long as he’s throwing well, they’ll let him go through the top four hitters a third time.

Dave Cameron: In an ideal world, he even gets you through 6.

ryth: Will we see kershaw, and more importantly if we do is that a bad idea?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no.

Dave Cameron: It’s his throw-day.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t push him too hard but a couple innings should be okay.

BT: wait they would throw verlander again tonight?

Dave Cameron: For a couple of batters, yeah.

Mike: What’s the % Josh Fields gets an out tonight

Dave Cameron: 0%

Nick: Most likely to get the last outs of the world series. Peacock, verlanda, jansen, verlander, or other

Dave Cameron: Jansen

Dave Cameron: Peacock probably #2

JB: Should Roberts consider starting Kershaw, having him pitch 2 innings or so, and then start “bullpenning” from there?

Dave Cameron: No real reason to force him to face the good righties and then bring in Darvish.

Kimball: Is Kip coming over for the game tonight?

Dave Cameron: No, I’m live blogging in solitude tonight. Those guys were distracting!

weezy: do you see any merit or credibility to a reliever TTO penalty? In the playoffs, each team sees the others best way more than they do at any point in the season

Dave Cameron: Ben Lindbergh looked for that last year and found nothing in the data.

v2micca: Which team would benefit more from a rain-out pushing game 7 back a day?

Dave Cameron: LA, by a lot.

Bagel: Do you think the Astros should be concerned about McCullers tonight? He really didn’t look all that great in game 3.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is where Hinch’s lack of trust in his relievers will be problematic.

Dave Cameron: If McCullers gets in trouble, what does he do? Morton isn’t a quick get-ready guy.

Dave Cameron: Much higher probability that Hinch asks McCullers to get out of a big jam and gets burned, putting the team down big.

PTBNL: Dave, I see/hear a lot of broadcasts say things like “this pitcher gets better as the game goes on” and then they show that his ERA is lower in later innings than in earlier innings. Couldn’t this be kind of misleading? The only time a pitcher gets to the later innings is when he has his good stuff and is keeping his team in the game. If a starter is throwing meatballs early on his manager will take him out early, but if he’s dealing he’s likely to be pitching later in the game.

Dave Cameron: No pitcher gets better as the game gets on.

Dave Cameron: And anyone showing you ERA, without accounting for relievers coming in and stranding the runners a starter left on, isn’t worth listening to.

Hunky Dory: Re: using Morrow – we can never know for certain if Roberts won the battle lost the war.  We know he won the battle, but if the pen doesn’t pitch well tonight, that can’t indubitably be chalked up to pulling Hill when he did.

Dave Cameron: In the same way, we can’t know that Hill wouldn’t have gotten Bregman out.

Sleepy: If the Dodgers win a low-scoring game tonight (meaning none of their hitters finishes the Series with a crazy stat line), could Rich Hill be named Series MVP?  As a starter that didn’t see the sixth inning in either start?

Dave Cameron: Nah

Guest: What’s the chances we see Giles?

Dave Cameron: 1%

Nick: would you  have trusted Stripling or Fields to steal some outs against Correa and Gurriel with a two run lead in the 8th in a do or die game?

Dave Cameron: I’d have gone with Cingrani, probably

Baby Bunting: How likely is Roberts to feel it necessary to use Jansen for the save, and is that a bad decision no matter the circumstances?

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll want Jansen facing the Springer-Correa group, and he’ll use him against those guys whether its the 8th or 9th.

Dave Cameron: And if he has to pull him against Reddick or McCann because he’s out of gas, so be it.

Matt: If Joc Pederson hits a dinger and the Dodgers win, is he the World Series MVP?

Dave Cameron: Very possible

ryth: Does it make sense that the ‘Stros have been running Reddick out there so consistently? I like him, and love his arm, but at what point should they have been maybe subbing in Maybin?

Dave Cameron: Maybin isn’t very good.

Baby Bunting: If you’re Hinch, do you trust Devenski or Giles with late inning work?

Dave Cameron: Me? Yes.

Guest: Chances Musgrove sees Joc Pederson again tonight?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think Musgrove pitches.

Ava Addams: If either team falls behind early, even by one run, should any pitcher see an at-bat, or should PH’s be used?  Or does it just depend on too many other context details at the time to say right now?

Dave Cameron: Darvish and McCullers should probably only bat once.

Dave Cameron: But I’d bet Darvish bats twice.

Ava Addams: If the Dodgers could have a do-over, do you think they would choose Granderson on the roster for the World Series over Fields or McCarthy, just for the sake of having an extra PH?

Dave Cameron: No, but I bet they’d swap out Fields for a different RP.

AJ Hinch: Dave, if I have a lead in the 7th inning, who do I go to for the last 9 outs tonight?

Dave Cameron: Probably Keuchel-Peacock

Forrest: should/will Gregerson be used as a fireman for Mccullers, considering Morton takes more time? Seems to be only reliever Hinch trusts at this point

Dave Cameron: I’d trust Harris more.

Craig: What kind of difference would Hand or Britton have made for Houston this postseason?

Dave Cameron: Who knows? Giles is better than Hand by a lot, and similar in talent to Britton, and he’s been terrible.

Dave Cameron: The Astros didn’t need another reliever; they needed their relievers to not suck.

Babe Lincoln: So one team scores ~8 runs in the first 2 innings.  How does the other manager use his pitchers?  Any change, or last-game-of-the-year-can’t-hold-anything-back-now?

Dave Cameron: If someone has an eight run lead, probably less likely to be as aggressive in pitching changes. Stick with your starter a little longer, let each pitcher go a full inning, etc…

Dooduh: Pederson for LAD, but who among Springer, Altuve or Bregman would be mvp for the Stros?

Dave Cameron: Springer

Kimball: What was the point of IBB’ing George Springer with two outs yesterday in the 5th, especially to then bring in a new pitcher whose command that day you haven’t seen?

Dave Cameron: Bregman is a worse hitter than Springer, and much worse against RHPs.

Dave Cameron: So it gave them the highest probability of getting out of the inning with the lead.

Anthony: If you were managing the Astros, would you move a lefty up in the lineup to force some tougher decisions about Roberts’ pitching changes?

Dave Cameron: Which one?

Dave Cameron: Astros fans didn’t like it when I said mid-summer that the team could use a better LH outfielder, but Marwin turning into a pumpkin this postseason has been a big problem for them.

Baby Bunting: Reddick has turned into a pumpkin at the same time, though, correct?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, but nothing they could really do about that. The Marwin-reverting-to-Marwin thing was a bit more predictable.

Really?: Getting the impression everyone is dismissing the Astros already. However, the pressure is on the Dodgers. I don’t see them winning this game.

Dave Cameron: You can’t see a 104 win team with home field advantage winning a game started by one of the best pitchers in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Both teams have a real shot, and I’d say it’s almost a coin flip, but clearly LA has a real shot.

Baby Bunting: This Marwin reverting thing seems like cherry picking.  Marwin has an amazing season of 600 AB, and now he’s reverting to not being very good?

Dave Cameron: His regular season numbers were not real.

Dave Cameron: https://goo.gl/YCagAE

Babe Lincoln: What pending/possible FA helped his stock most this postseason?  Hurt his stock most?

Dave Cameron: Morrow probably helped himself the most.

Dave Cameron: Or Sabathia

Dave Cameron: Hurt himself? I don’t know.

Dave Cameron: Wade Davis wasn’t great.

Dave Cameron: But he’s still getting paid.

Baby Bunting: Dave. You are picking the sample size of 40AB to be real over the 600.  Is that tongue in cheek?

Dave Cameron: I’m not saying Marwin’s postseason performance is his true talent. I’m saying he’s not a great hitter and they could have used a better alternative in left field so that they didn’t have to run him out there everyday when the luck wore off.

Babe Lincoln: Noticing the xwOBA-xOBA leaderboard you just linked to has a lot of fast players at the top (i.e. overperformed) and slow players at the bottom (i.e. underperformed).  Doesn’t that imply that *some* of the over/underperformance is due to talent rather than just luck?

Dave Cameron: Of course. Marwin’s not one of those guys, though.

Mike: I guess this is really just a WS chat

Dave Cameron: It’s Game 7. There will be plenty of time for off-season stuff next week.

Matt: Who gets more outs tonight: Kershaw or Jansen?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw

Lawdog: Is Jeff Sullivan the most chill guy you’ve ever met?

Dave Cameron: Have you heard him go of on GIF pronunciation?

Dave Roberts: Yu loads the bases in the 2nd inning with 0 outs. 0-0. What do I do?

Dave Cameron: Depends who is coming up

Dave Cameron: If it’s back to the top of the order, probably stick with him, since it’s right on right and their other options aren’t better against those guys.

Dave Cameron: If it’s the bottom of the order, maybe Watson or Cingrani to go after the lefties.

Baby Bunting: How much does the homeplate umpire matter to the outcome of tonight’s game?

Dave Cameron: Wegner has a smaller zone than most, which is probably bad news for McCullers

Guest: did you read linberghs piece on reddick a few months back and are you a believer he just isnt clutch?

Dave Cameron: I did, and I’m not

Dave Cameron: With as many players as have played baseball, someone was going to put up insanely bad clutch numbers

AG: Is there an offensive stat for Strikeouts Looking?  There’s seemingly been an uptick in the World Series and I haven’t known how to compare.  Thanks!

Dave Cameron: You can look that up on Savant.

Dave Cameron: 28 called strikeouts in WS so far: https://goo.gl/vbgQds

Sonny: How many innings has the game gone if Josh Fields retires the last batter?

Dave Cameron: 26

Dave Cameron: Okay, that will wrap up the pregame chat.

Dave Cameron: I’ll be back in 7 hours to watch the game with you all in real time.

Dave Cameron: Come hang out with us tonight. It should be fun!