Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/14/15

Dave Cameron: Happy American League Elimination Day. Two pretty exciting games on tap for this afternoon that we can discuss, or we can cover the Cubs vs Mets/Dodgers upcoming NLCS, or talk about Chase Utley some more, or we can all make fun of Kiley on his last day working at FG.

Dave Cameron: Alright, we’ll start a couple of minutes early today.

Comment From dom
thoughts on DeGrom warming up last night?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t really call what he did warming up. There’s a difference between just throwing off a mound and getting ready to come into a game. Having him just play catch probably isn’t a big deal, and it doesn’t look like he ever really threw like he was preparing to pitch.

Comment From Kris
Could the Blue Jays go Stroman through 5, Price 6 & 7, Sanchez 8, Osuna 9? Only thing that could seemingly rationalize pitching Price in relief in game 4

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they use him today. I bet the hope is Stroman for 6 or 7, then Loup against a tough LHB, then the RH relievers to close it out.

Comment From dom
do you think Toronto’s advancement in the playoffs will have any effect on them being able to keep Price this winter, Bautista and others in the future?

Dave Cameron: If they have a deep run, it will lead to a significant future revenue boost. So, yes.

Dave Cameron: But I doubt they make any real effort to keep Price.

Comment From Garold
Where’s Kiley going? I really liked his content. He will be missed.

Dave Cameron: He got an offer to be Assistant Director of Baseball Operations for the Braves. It was the kind of in-baseball job he couldn’t pass up.

Comment From MeowMix
Who should the Cubs be rooting for tomorrow night?

Dave Cameron: Extra innings? I think the Dodgers are a better team, but I don’t think the gap is so huge that there’s a strong preference either way.

Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Dave. Is the presently called strike zone closer or further away from the rule book strike zone than when pitch f/x started?

Dave Cameron: Much further away. The strike zone has grown every year for the last five years.

Comment From Pete
If Dodgers win tonight, would you start Kershaw Game 1 of NLCS on short rest or wait it out as he would be able to pitch twice in the 7 game series regardless?

Dave Cameron: No reason to push him for Game 1.

Comment From The+Dude
I’d like to nominate myself to replace Kiley as chief prospect analysis. My experience is solely based on reading his posts: I know nothing else about scouting. When can I start, and do I get full health benefits?

Dave Cameron: We’ve already conducted interviews with people we think could do a very good job at continuing FG prospect coverage going forward, so despite your generous offer, we’re going to go with one of them.

Comment From Dr Johnny Fever
Is there any rational explanation for running Price out in relief ahead 7-1? I just can’t wrap my head around that a major league manager would do that.

Dave Cameron: Using him for a little bit was okay; using him for three innings, no, I don’t think that can be justified. It’s fine if they wanted to start Stroman, but they would have been far better off having Price around to pitch multiple innings if Stroman faltered. They limited their options today. It will work out fine if Stroman is great, but if he struggles early, they’ll regret not having Price around to bridge the gap.

Comment From Phillies113
When FanGraphs contributors leave, do you have a Stone of Triumph (or Shame, depending on circumstances) that they must carry with them as they leave?

Dave Cameron: No, but he is going to be required to wear a FanGraphs t-shirt to the office everyday.

Comment From Sean P
Cubs use Cahill, Richard, and Rodney in the highest of leverage games yesterday. Their prior teams did not want these pitchers. What does this mean in regard to building an effective bullpen?

Dave Cameron: Pitchers can be fixed.

Comment From johnny_mapleleaf
Is Gallardo the guy to relieve Hamels in the early innings based on how he pitched in Game 1?

Dave Cameron: I would bet the Rangers live and die with Hamels.

Comment From JG
Was were you expecting Kiley to be a relatively short term guy to set up the prospect page infrastructure and then move on to a team, or is it a surprise to have him leave already?

Dave Cameron: To be honest, we didn’t know that Kiley would be that good when we hired him. We were optimistic that he could do a good job, but he killed it in such a way that it became pretty clear that teams were going to come calling sooner than later. So it wasn’t any huge surprise when he told us, though obviously we’d have liked to keep him. But props to him for doing work at a level where he opened opportunities for himself that were just too difficult to ignore.

Comment From Jeff
Make fun of Kiley? Please! We should be begging him to stay! He is going to be hard to replace, so please tell me you’ve got somebody good lined up to write about prospect.

Dave Cameron: There’s no question he set a very high bar, and our next prospect guy is probably going to be unfairly expected to live up to that level. There probably isn’t another Kiley McDaniel out there, realistically, but we do think there are some guys who can do excellent work in their own way, and we’re excited to give one of them a shot.

Dave Cameron: But, I’m also reminded of the fact that Kiley exceeded anyone’s expectations as well. The next guy may very well do that too.

Comment From Adam
Are all of the Fangraphs writers going out for some sort of happy hour in honor of Kiley’s last day?

Dave Cameron: We’re going to watch two elimination playoff games. That counts as happy hour for us.

Comment From Luke
Do you think Thor and Harvey are available tomorrow? Should they be?

Dave Cameron: Definitely not Harvey. Thor, maybe, but I think deGrom is good enough and the bullpen deep enough that they shouldn’t need him, especially after an off day.

Comment From Tim
Hi Dave. In the short time he’s been in the AL, Cueto’s BABIP against is monsterously higher than career. If he stays in the AL, should we expect his BABIP to normalize to .290-.300 like everyone else? Or is this a blip for a guy who is unusually good at inducing weak contact.

Dave Cameron: This is a blip.

Comment From Mats
Who would you rather have as your starter today: Hamels or Stroman?

Dave Cameron: Stroman.

Comment From Jeremy B.
How exactly is it that Fox’s announcers gush about the Royals’ ability to “grind out at-bats” when they finished last in the league in pitches seen per plate appearance?

Dave Cameron: They basically just mean they don’t strike out.

Comment From Dr. Johnny Fever
Why would Price want to play for a manager who does not trust him?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure that’s not how he sees it.

Comment From dom
has the wind been blowing out at Wrigley these past couple games or are guys just hitting bombs

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From Ray
Enrique Hernandez – every day starter or more of a utility player?

Dave Cameron: He’s good enough to start for a lot of teams.

Comment From Alex
Has Alex Gordon’s lackluster return from injury hurt his projected value in FA this offseason in any meaningful way (assuming he still turns down his option)? How likely is it the Royals re-sign him?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, i think his chances at getting a huge deal are probably diminished. I’d guess he probably does re-sign in KC, since he’s said he wants to stay, and they should be able to afford him.

Comment From dom
Mike Francesca has repeatedly said that the Dodgers are not a good team outside of Kershaw and Greinke. It seems teams like the Dodgers that have a solid 1-8 lineup but no MVP type hitter are consistently underrated. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: This is the thing people get most wrong; baseball is not a star driven sport, and people like Francesca who only know the names of the three or four players they see on Sportscenter are never going to properly evaluate teams with depth.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are excellent because they have no weaknesses, but you have to know all 25 guys on the roster and their relative value to see that.

Comment From Kimball
Schwarber is awesomely fun to watch now, but hasn’t the Cubs approach of rushing him been completely at odds with their careful development of every other prospect? Am I off-base to anticipate a significant step back for him next year?

Dave Cameron: They rushed him? He was a polished college hitter who crushed the minors.

Comment From ljc
Does the way the Cubs have been utilizing all of Castro, Baez, and Russell as middle infielders from September on indicate they may keep all around for the foreseeable future?

Dave Cameron: No, I think Castro goes this winter.

Comment From Ty
Give this Dodger fan some hope, deGrom is beatable right? He has to have some weakness!

Dave Cameron: Of course he does. Every pitcher is beatable.

Comment From Miggy Azalea
Re: Price pitching in relief – not that I agree with pitching him 3 innings the other day, but I still gotta believe that they go to him if their backs are up against the wall today, no?

Dave Cameron: He threw 50 pitches and has one day of rest. At this point, it’s fair to question whether he’d even be effective if they wanted to use him.

Comment From ljc
When was the last time you wore a Fangraphs t-shirt?

Dave Cameron: A couple of weeks ago.

Comment From Marc
Thoughts on seeing Estrada come out the pen today?

Dave Cameron: I’d say it’s unlikely. They have a lot of power relief arms and none of them have pitched in a few days. Don’t see them going with the guy who throws 89 when they have lots of 95-100 available.

Comment From Jeremy B.
Thoughts on Harold Reynolds criticizing Gibbons for pulling Dickey one out shy of obtaining the sacred win? At what point does obsession over that flawed statistic shift from trivial to legitimately harmful?

Dave Cameron: It’s Harold Reynolds. Who cares what he says?

Comment From Guest
Is next year going to be a tough one for STL? Their offense isn’t getting any younger, and pitching regression will only be mitigated so much by the return pf a 34-yo coming off injury.

Dave Cameron: They’re the Cardinals. They’ll probably turn Tommy Pham into a 6 win player.

Comment From Steve
Are you writing anything for the Hardball Times Annual this year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, my piece is on the upcoming CBA negotiations and what the primary issues will be.

Comment From Alex
How diverse are the backgrounds of the people at Fangraphs? Did some people mainly come from journalism, or statistics, or something completely different…?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d say it’s a pretty diverse group. We definitely have some with writing backgrounds and a handful with quantitative chops, plus some people like Sullivan who just showed they have ability without getting a degree in either writing or math.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
Mets have any shot tomorrow?

Dave Cameron: Of course; even the worst team in baseball has like a 30% chance of beating the best team on a given day. And the Mets are a lot better than a bad team, so at worst, you’re looking at a ~40% chance.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, my internet went down for a few minutes.

Comment From BabaBooey
Seems like there is a gap between how non-players (like me) and players view the game. For example, seems like many players were generally on #Papelbum’s side but not many fans were. similar with the Utley “slide”: more players than I expected were ok with it. Am I right with this thinking? Is it simply because I have never been in a clubhouse?

Dave Cameron: There’s no question that players see things a lot differently than we do. There’s a culture of baseball that they are a part of that has very different norms than the outside world. I think it’s important to realize that our perspective isn’t the same as theirs, but sometimes, their perspective probably needs to be overruled in the best interest of future players.

Comment From Charizard
Could the Cubs trade Javier Baez for a cost-controlled SP like Steven Matz or is that a pipe dream?

Dave Cameron: Pipe dream.

Comment From Kimball
Other than bullpen roles, is the ace-on-short-rest the most glaring exception to the growing adoption of pitching metrics? It seems odd to me that there is an increase (I think) in the number of guys going on short rest in the same postseason that times-through-the-order has finally sunk in.

Dave Cameron: Actually, I think those two things are related. Aces on short rest often pitch fewer innings per start, so they go through the order fewer times. I think teams are deciding that they may be better off getting the first 2-3 times through an order more times in a series than saving a guys arm so he can pitch a fourth time through in one start.

Comment From Justin
Has your opinion on Piscotty changed at all since they called him up?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I undersold his power. How the Cardinals keep getting these low-power guys to turn into high-power guys is a mystery I hope we eventually learn the answer to.

Comment From Guest
You think Castro goes and Russell/Baez cover SS/2B respectively?

Dave Cameron: I could see them bringing in an LH veteran to serve as a depth piece or starting 2B if Baez fails, but yeah, that would be my guess.

Comment From groucho
as a cardinals fan, can you give me something to be happy about??

Dave Cameron: Your team had an amazing season, and the postseason is mostly a crapshoot.

Comment From TF Fredrik
Is there a reason you think Castro goes this winter. obviously hes no superstar, but wouldnt keeping him around go with having a deep roster? Or you think they can get a solid return?

Dave Cameron: His second half probably gave him enough trade value to get something back while also dumping the whole contract, so they could probably reallocate his salary towards other needs on the roster, and get something as valuable in a LH package to give them more balance and better match-ups.

Dave Cameron: More balance in the middle infield, anyway; I know they already have LH hitters.

Comment From Rick
Have any other FG writers gone on to work in professional baseball in the past?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, a good number of them.

Comment From Alex
You need three outs, up one run. Trout, Harper, and Cabrera are due up. Which current MLB relief pitcher (you can choose any) do you bring on? (you can only use one pitcher)

Dave Cameron: Wade Davis, maybe.

Dave Cameron: Chapman is insanely good but two RHBs due up makes me lean right.

Comment From bill
Was amazed to see August Fagerstrom was only interning at MLB. He’s fantastic, huge return to the fold for you guys.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’re really thrilled to get August back. He’s great.

Comment From iyh
do you routinely get overtures from teams? you’ve been killing it for a lot longer than kiley has.

Dave Cameron: There are a lot of people out there who can do what I can do; there are fewer who can do what Kiley can do.

Dave Cameron: But thanks for the compliment.

Comment From bill
Assuming good amount of thought went into this—why run the contract crowdsourcing pieces now?

Dave Cameron: They take about 3 weeks to get through, given how many free agents there are. If we waited until the off-season started, guys would be signing before the results were in.

Comment From Raindog
Wanna take a guess at Chris Davis’ next contract? Does he rival Heyward or Upton for most hitting $$ this winter?

Dave Cameron: No, he’s a high variance guy so I think he’ll get a shorter deal. I’d guess 4 or 5 years at $25M apiece.

Comment From Thom
How much would you pay for Cespedes this off-season, and how much more will he actually get?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the franchise and their financial situation, but I think something like 6/$140M is probably about right.

Dave Cameron: He’ll get more than that.

Comment From Who do you like in the McHugh v. Cueto matchup?
Who do you like in the McHugh v. Cueto matchup?

Dave Cameron: Cueto’s the better pitcher and Royals have home field, so I’d give them slight favorite status.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
Justin “Gimli” Turner: Unwanted bench player to clean-up MVP of most expensive team in baseball. Wha happened?

Dave Cameron: He learned how to hit the ball hard without trading off contact. Power and contact is a good combo,

Comment From dom
are the TV deals for the playoffs worked out well in advance? for instance this year the National League is the big draw, do the networks speculate in advance which league will draw more interest?

Dave Cameron: No, they trade off years. TBS will have the AL next year.

Comment From Prich
Which still possible 2015 WS matchup intrigues you the most… the least?

Dave Cameron: Cubs-Jays is probably the most fun series I could imagine.

Comment From cornflake5000
As a Cubs fan, am I crazy for wanting to play the Dodgers? Kershaw & Grienke are better than Arrieta & Lester, but the Dodgers have no SP either and they seem like a dead ass team. The Mets seem to have a similar vibe to the Cubs.

Dave Cameron: You’re nuts.

Comment From Jeff
Is there any kind of push to get more diversity in the FG ranks, both among women and minorities?

Dave Cameron: It’s a problem, no question, and one we don’t totally know how to fix. We were proud to have Wendy Thurm as part of our staff for several years, and we are always looking for more women and minorities to add to the staff.

Comment From bill
Do you think Mets should have more of a bullpen game/all hands on deck mindset last night? The runs came early but still

Dave Cameron: No, I was fine with how they handled it.

Comment From Johnny5Alive
given the cardinals always seem to be the cardinals, and the cubs got here faster than anticipated, are the pirates screwed?

Dave Cameron: No, but the Reds and Brewers are, at least short-term.

Comment From Joe
Are you worried that an MLB team is gonna steal Cistulli?

Dave Cameron: Thankfully, no one needs a Director of Run-On Sentences.

Comment From Pale Hose
RE Times through order: If you would rather have starters pitch on short rest and only go through order twice, then this implies the penalty is more about familiarity than fatigue, right?

Dave Cameron: I believe it is, yes. It’s both, but I think it’s more familiarity.

Comment From Kevin
What jersey will David Price be wearing next April?

Dave Cameron: Dombrowski keeps saying he’s getting himself an ace this winter. We already know he thinks Price is one.

Comment From Tommy Lasordid
Wouldn’t it have made sense for Utley to accept the suspension for the two games in NY? I would think Mattingly would have been very reluctant to put him on the field in that environment.

Dave Cameron: Utley doesn’t think he did anything wrong, and likely didn’t want to set a precedent that MLB can suspend players for this. Fighting the suspension wasn’t about NLDS strategy.

Comment From Cory S.
Does the whole ‘Cespedes is a plus runner’ thing hold any weight? Rarely steals a base, but has good home-to-first numbers.

Dave Cameron: He has plus speed. That doesn’t always translate into good baserunning.

Comment From Guest
Cubs-Mets would be fun, Dodgers put me to sleep

Dave Cameron: Yeah, who wants to Kershaw pitch?

Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
You mentioned earlier in the chat that the strikezone has expanded in each of the past five years. Why do you think that’s the case? Having Pitch/fx available seems like the strike zone should be settling in at the rule book zone rather than deviating from it.

Dave Cameron: MLB doesn’t want the strike zone to be the rulebook zone. The decrease in offense has helped everyone buy into the narrative that PEDs are out of the game, even though the decrease in offense is mostly because of the increasing size of the strike zone.

Comment From Derek
If all the Fan graphs writers were a slow pitch softball team, who’s the SS, who’s the 3 hole hitter, and who’s playing catcher because they can’t throw a ball to save their life?

Dave Cameron: We had a whiffle ball game in Phoenix last year. Dan Farnsworth was the best guy on the field by a mile.

Comment From Go Jays
Where would Marcus Stroman rank among the Mets playoff rotation for you?

Dave Cameron: Pretty close to Syndergaard, ahead of Harvey and Matz, behind deGrom.

Comment From Chris
You said “the decrease in offense has helped everyone buy into the narrative that PEDs are out of the game.” Are they?

Dave Cameron: I think they are likely heavily reduced from a decade ago, but I think it’s naive to think that they’ve been completely eliminated. And I also don’t buy into the idea that the entire offensive boom of the late-90s/early-00s was all steroids.

Comment From senpaisanto
am i wrong for being grateful to matheny for pitching siegrist against rizzo and schwarber?

Dave Cameron: Yes? Siegrist is good.

Comment From Al
is that because Harvey is coming off TJ or overall?

Dave Cameron: They’re all terrific, but Harvey was a little less dominant this year.

Comment From Robinson Chorizo
Who is better over the next 3 years: Harvey or deGrom?

Dave Cameron: I’d take deGrom.

Comment From CircleChange11
The Cubs didn’t win because they’re good, they won because the Cardinals made too many mistakes, true?

Dave Cameron: Why is it either/or? The Cubs are good and the Cardinals made too many mistakes.

Comment From Northsider
I’ve noticed you answer a lot of questions from Cubs fans that make us look like goofballs. For the sake of my people, can we just ignore those questions going forward?

Dave Cameron: It’s not intentional.

Comment From dom
do teams value defense now more than at the turn of the century? would mark Trumbo types get more playing time back then?

Dave Cameron: For sure, yes. The game has moved away from valuing bat-only players as much as it used to.

Comment From Alex
How do you predict Zobrist’s contract? He’s 34, but it seems like people think he

Dave Cameron: He’s going to get paid. I’m guessing 4/$70M, or something like that.

Comment From Rob
https://twitter.com/ShiDavi…

Comment From Rob
Loup’s unavailability in today’s game now confirmed. Tweet also implies that Loup was unavailable in game four.

Dave Cameron: And now burning Price is even more indefensible.

Comment From Go Jays
Jays did 4.17 million viewers in Canada alone Sunday, have the 3rd biggest attendance in MLB since the deadline and team owned media where TV revenues are variable based on performance yet they’re not the favorite to land Price? Riddle me that

Dave Cameron: The team has a long stated aversion to deals longer than 5+ years. Anthopolous said he’d go six in the right situation, but Price is getting 7 or 8.

Dave Cameron: Alright, have to get some work done before the games start this afternoon. Thanks for hanging out everyone.