Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/18/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Probably a bit less happy if you’re a Cubs fan.

Dave Cameron: Obviously, the playoffs are the thing happening in baseball right now, but if you’ve got off-season questions, we can talk about that stuff too.

Eric: Can the Yankees finally conquer Keuchel?  Who do you think wins the series at this point?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet on this going seven, so I’m expecting them to beat either Verlander or Keuchel, or the Astros pen in one of those two games.

Dave Cameron: At this point, I think it’s probably a coin flip to who wins.

Julio: Do the Yankees count as an “early arrival” team, like the 2015 Cubs and Astros were?

Dave Cameron: Well, like 1/3 of our staff picked the Yankees to make the playoffs in our preseason staff predictions, so not really.

Josiah: Assuming Dodgers finish off the cubs, Seager has to be on the World Series roster, right?

Dave Cameron: Yup.

Dave Cameron: Especially if they have a big layoff and a well rested bullpen, no point carrying a long reliever who will never get used.

Dave Cameron: Even if Seager isn’t healthy enough for Game 1, you roster him so he might be able to play at some point.

fake newss: Would you have any advice for the Yankee hitters on defeating Keuchel?

Dave Cameron: Sinkers down at the bottom of the zone. You’re going to get sinkers down.

Josh R: The Dodgers at one point looked like an historically good team, and on this playoff run, they are again looking historically good. My question is what the hell did happen for those 25 games in late August/early September? It is still one of the strangest things I’ve witnessed.

Dave Cameron: Seager didn’t play for a good chunk of that stretch. They weren’t pushing their good arms heavily.

Dave Cameron: It was weird that they lost so many in a row, but they didn’t have much to play for.

Corey: Keuchel seems to rely on very late movement. I know ML hitters are creatures of habit and routine, but do you think the Yankees could gain an advantage by ‘Darvishing’ – crowding the plate in the front of the batter’s box?

Dave Cameron: Late movement isn’t a real thing.

Bret: I know you’re in the camp that thinks the Jays should trade Josh Donaldson this winter. Who are some teams that look to be fits? As much as Donaldson is an upgrade for most, there aren’t too many teams that seem like good bets to go all-in for 2018 and also have a big need at 3B.

Dave Cameron: STL is the obvious one.

Juan: Is there anybody on the Padres now that you think could start on a playoff team, either now or in the near future?

Dave Cameron: Margot, definitely.

Hugh: You’ve been less skeptical of Betances than Girardi, but after his outing in game 3, in what circumstances would you even feel comfortable using him right now?

Dave Cameron: That was the end of Betances in high leverage situations this year. I bet he doesn’t even make the World Series roster if they get there.

Josh R: Joe Maddon has lost faith in his pen. He has also seemingly lost faith in Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist.  Should Cubs fans be losing faith in Joe Maddon?

Dave Cameron: He’s still one of the best managers in baseball, so you take the good with the bad. But the Cubs should be trying to figure out how to talk him out of his recency bias.

Jake Arrieta: Since it looks like my team is about to be eliminated, what kind of contract do you think I get this offseason? O/U Cueto’s deal? Chances I end up on your worst 10 offseason transactions?

Dave Cameron: I bet he goes short term to maximize salary. Maybe 4/100 with an opt-out after Year 2?

Q-Ball: What is your take on the long-term outlook for the Cubs, assuming they are eliminated this year?  What do you think they need to address this offseason?

Dave Cameron: They probably need to figure out what their real outfield plan is, and Schwarber shouldn’t be part of it.

Dave Cameron: And obviously, they need a few more starters.

Dave Cameron: Plus some RPs that Maddon might trust in October.

Dmitry: Are there any studies about extra rest (ie if dodgers win in 4 vs AL having to play 7) being detrimental or do you always want as much rest as possible this time of year?

Dave Cameron: You want the rest.

Los: Is CC a hall of famer? can’t see it before Moose and Schilling but will the electorate see something different? (I think they all are).

Dave Cameron: I almost wrote about this yesterday, and we talked about it on the podcast that will go up someday.

Dave Cameron: I think he’s a borderline candidate right now, but this postseason will help him a lot. If he throws another great game and the Yankees win it all, he might be > 50%

Rockie Dangerfield: Out of the Rockies’ rookie starters this year (Marquez, Senzatela, Freeland, and Hoffman), who do you see having the best and worst 2018?

Dave Cameron: Marquez is the best of that bunch, Senzatela the worst.

EK: The cubbies look done, the dodgers look calm and collected, the astros look lost, and the yankees are surging. Incredibly, I think the Yankees are the new WS favorites.

Dave Cameron: The team that is one win away from the WS is the favorite over any team that still has to win two to get there. And that’s without factoring in anything about rosters, which would favor LAD.

Dave Cameron: Anyone telling you that anyone besides the Dodgers is the favorite to win it all now is wrong.

Q-Ball: Dave, do you have a NL ROY vote this year?  If so, I know you can’t discuss, but seems pretty easy ballot to fill out, isn’t it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that was my ballot this year. The last few spots actually weren’t very easy, as there were like 10 guys in consideration, all putting up pretty similar years .

Shoot2thrill : Is there any chance you think the Cubs can win or are they done

Dave Cameron: I’d put their odds at about 5%

Dave Cameron: So of course there’s some chance, but it’s not a good one.

Bobert: Dave, I liked your article on Dave Roberts’ decision last night.  But I do wonder as to why he used Jansen to finish off the ninth instead of someone like Cingrani? I mean a lefty was up.

Dave Cameron: Same thing with Girardi using Chapman to finish off a seven run lead. The risk aversion these managers have of letting their B relievers even let a large lead become a small lead defies logic.

greg: This might be a clunky way to ask this.  When talking about run expectancy in any given situation, is the changing scoring environment over time affecting the calculation, or is it just an average run expectancy for that situation as far back as we have data.

Dave Cameron: The RE/WE numbers we use on the site adjust for park/league.

Steve: What pace of play rules do you see being instituted this offseason? The length of these games is ridiculous.

Dave Cameron: Starting to wonder if limiting catcher’s visits to the mound is inevitable. Seems like Contreras went out there every 5 pitches last night.

Dave Cameron: We already limit coaches visits to the mound, so not that far of a leap to cap number of times per inning catcher can go out there.

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Who ends up with the Braves’ GM job?

Dave Cameron: Probably depends on if Hart stays.

Dave Cameron: If he does, he’ll hire someone under him who is fine being a #2, so probably a younger guy who is getting a promotion. If Hart goes (and that’s my guess), then maybe they bring in a guy like Moore who wants to run the whole show.

Pantone 294: Assuming the Dodgers make it to the World Series. Think they have any preference to playing the Astros or the Yankees.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they want to see Verlander going games 1/4/7 and pulling a Bumgarner on them.

Dave Cameron: The Yankee bullpen is scary too, but I think they’d rather face NYY.

Mario Impemba: How much do the Tigers get for Ian Kinsler this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Not a lot.

Dave Cameron: He’s an okay player, but he’s 35, it’s one year, and 2Bs are easy to find now.

Bobert: I think that using Morrow AND Jansen last night was a mistake.

Dave Cameron: Me too.

Josh R: Chances Yu Darvish is heavilly pursued by the Dodgers now?

Dave Cameron: I would bet they’re in the mix but he signs elsewhere.

LegallyEagle: Should the Cubs’ front office have pushed Joe to play Justin Wilson?  At least they should’ve kept him on the NLCS roster…

Dave Cameron: If he says straight up he won’t pitch him, you can’t tell him he has to, since managers get final say on how players are deployed. But yeah, his willingness to discard a quality RP because of 20 bad innings is a problem.

Guest: So, I know we talk a lot about not wanting to leave your starter in too long…and rightfully so. But should Hinch have left McCullers in yesterday longer than he did? Not like he was the first guy to give up a bomb to Judge this year

Dave Cameron: No, they were lucky to get 6 out of him.

Colin : What kind of return would Schwarber warrant? Seems like a younger Matt Kemp?

Dave Cameron: An AL team or an NL team with a 1B opening would still give up something for his bat.

Dave Cameron: He’s got some value.  Just not what the Cubs have thought it was.

IsIt2015Yet?: Is Chapman, Davis, Miller the only bullpen Maddon would trust in October?

Dave Cameron: Even then, he’d probably find some reason to say one of the three doesn’t have it right now.

Ev: Rest is great, but you can lose momentum. Are you in favor of a scrimmage game being played for the team that wins in 4 in preparation for the WS?

Dave Cameron: Momentum is a myth.

Bobby: Viva El Birdos has an interesting piece up saying that with the Cubs graduating and trading prospects, aging starters, and rising arbitration costs, they look more like they’re playing in a win-now window, than a long term dynasty.  Do you have any thoughts on that?

Dave Cameron: The core of a good team for a while is still there. But they went the wrong way this year.

TJ: What kind of contract is the Toddfather looking at? He seems like a true 80 clubhouse guy

Dave Cameron: He’s not.

Dave Cameron: More of the “some love him, some hate him” type.

Jobu: If the Jays add an “impact arm” and an “impact bat” as Atkins said he’d try for in his end-of-season presser, do they have a good chance at a WC spot in 2018?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but I’m not sure how they get those guys.

Aer: Eric yesterday said that the Yankees player dev department might be the best department in baseball in the past 5 years.  Any other candidates from you?

Dave Cameron: Cleveland has to be in that mix.

Sonny: When you say ‘late movement isn’t a real thing’ what do you mean? Do you mean the common way the public perceives late movement isn’t a thing? Hasn’t spin rate given some credence to the idea that some pitches, due to high or low SR break more than others and wouldn’t that be what batters perceive as late movement?

Dave Cameron: Physics doesn’t allow a ball to travel on a trajectory for most of the way to the plate, then dramatically change right at the end.

Todd Frazier: If my one handed, bent sideways, one footed home run didn’t  convince people that the ball has changed and Yankees RH porch is just stupid easy, nothing will.

Dave Cameron: He hit that ball 100 mph.

Dave Cameron: It looked bad, but it was solid contact.

Replacement Level: If Arrieta is 4/100, what does Darvish get?  More years or just more per year?

Dave Cameron: Both

Dave Cameron: I’d put Darvish at 7/175.

Druidiful: How would Verlander start game 1 of the WS if he is pitching game 6 of the ALCS?

Dave Cameron: Don’t have to start him

Dave Cameron: Would guess that if Astros get to WS, Verlander/Keuchel will both pitch in relief multiple times.

That Guy: You’ve been an advocate of teams aggressively using their bullpen, so what did you think of Hinch pulling McCullers after the Judge bomb?

Dave Cameron: It was pushing it to let him face Judge in the first place.

Betances: Am I in NY next season?

Dave Cameron: No chance.

TJ: This question gets asked every week – but what deal has CC pitched himself into now? Seems like he’d get at least 2 for 30 or is that crazy?

Dave Cameron: That’s probably about right.

Quick Hook: Cubs starters have gone 7, 6, 5.2, 4, 4, 5, 4.2, and 5 in its 8 post season games.  Since Joe has no faith in his pen, shouldn’t he be riding his starters more than he has?

Dave Cameron: His starters aren’t exactly dominating either.

John: As a team this year, Dodgers hitters ranked last in wOBA (.216) against pitches 97 mph or higher. You sure the Yankees’ pen isn’t a death sentence for them in the WS?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t seen any evidence that numbers like that have predictive value.

TJ: Do you know if Yanks AGM Fishman is getting any looks for a full GM gig?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t heard his name connected anywhere. Fish is a smart guy, but he’s also pretty quiet. I don’t know if he would want to deal with the media that often.

Steve: Should Royals offer a QO to Vargas and Minor? Vargas I could see either way, and lean towards no perhaps, but Minor just put up a 2-win season with increased velocity and is only 30. If Madson got 3/$23M at age 35, wouldn’t Minor be able to top that.

Dave Cameron: No way.

SignedEpsteinsMother: Scratch that. In his chat last week Eno suggested Stanton, based on eating the full contract, would be worth a good prospect and some meh pieces (80m surplus next year).
Heyward is not going anywhere. Rizzo and Bryant are FA’s 21-22. If u pick up Stanton for Schwarbs and pieces, u could due worse then an out field of Stanton Almora gor, forever, right?

Dave Cameron: No one is taking the full contract.

Dave Cameron: If the Marlins want to get anything real in return, they’ll have to eat money.

Josh: What market are you now considered part of in BBWAA?

Dave Cameron: This is my last year in the Atlanta chapter. I’ll be in Seattle chapter next year.

Doug: Schwarber for JBJ, who says no?

Dave Cameron: BOS has no interest in that.

Brian: What do the Tigers do with Miguel Cabrera in a rebuild?

Dave Cameron: Hope he bounces back next year and hits better, then put him on the trade block.

Jason D: Schwarber for Gerrit Cole?

Dave Cameron: Cubs fans are the best.

Cave Dameron: When are the game live chats coming back? The wildcard / DS ones were great!

Dave Cameron: If the ALCS goes 7, we’ll live blog that game. And we’ll do all the World Series games.

Dave Cameron: If the NLCS goes 7, we’ll do that one too, but not planning on that.

AC000000: Are we seriously criticizing Maddon for not trusting Wilson? If you’ve watched all Cubs games this year, particuarly the ones he’s pitched, you’d understand the hesitation. He has not looked good for more than 1 game at a time since arriving. Something is obviously off about his confidence and it’s having a physical impact. There was no way you could rely on him in crucial high-leverage situations given that handicap.

Dave Cameron: It’s 20 innings.

Dave Cameron: If you watched the Dodgers in August/September, there was no way they were going to win in the postseason.

Dave Cameron: If you watched Lance McCullers in the second half, no way he was going to shut down the Yankees line-up in Yankee Stadium.

Hunky Dory: Betances has no chance of not being traded?  None?

Dave Cameron: He has no chance of not being traded.

Dave Cameron: I’d put a Betances trade as the single most likely transaction of the winter.

SignedEpsteinsMother: Eno (last week, in regards to Stanton): I mean I did the math based on him being a six win guy next year. I found like $180m surplus! That’s a lot. Depth charts call him a 5.5 win guy. That costs him ten wins and gives him $80m surplus, roughly. So maybe one good prospect, one meh one, and pick up all the cash?
What say u, Obi Wan.

Dave Cameron: Stanton has put up +6 WAR twice in seven years.

Dave Cameron: He has as many seasons under 2 and he does over 6

Dave Cameron: Best case scenario, you get him for 3/$80M, then he opts out. Worst case scenario, the knees go out again and you’re stuck with a long-term albatross.

Sleepy: Remember when the Cubs could’ve had Andrew Miller straight-up for Schwarber?  And possibly still had all the prospects from the Chapman deal?  Oops.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Schwarber love affair has had a cascading negative impact on the Cubs.

That guy from France: Why aren’t you live chatting all the games ? not enough staff ?

Dave Cameron: The live blogs are 4+ hour commitments. We can’t ask our guys to produce normal levels of content and then also cover all these games. So we’d be trading live blogs for fewer posts.

Dave Cameron: For high-interest games, it can be worth it.

Dave Cameron: But not every game.

Chin Music: Read your article this morning and agree with much of it. Outside of last night, how do you rate Roberts as a manager, with the postseason in particular?

Dave Cameron: I’d take him over any manager in baseball.

Dave Cameron: I just think that particular decision wasn’t great.

Power Bat: Chances of the Red Sox signing Darvish and trading E-Rod and Bradley for an outfield power bat and moving mookie to center? Or signing JD Martinez and trading for a pitcher?

Dave Cameron: I would bet more on the latter.

Jason D: Can Schwarber handle 1B?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much anyone with appendages can handle 1B.

Brian Cashman: What could I get for Betances now?  With his control issues, his value must be much lower than it has been in recent years.

Dave Cameron: It’s not going up in NY any time soon. With Chapman, Robertson, and Kahnle, the high leverage regular season innings are now spoken for. And that doesn’t even factor in Green.

Dave Cameron: So if the Yankees kept him, he’d be an expensive low leverage guy.

Dave Cameron: His exit from NY was clear last year when Levine went after him over the arbitration thing. Now that he’s pitched his way out of Girardi’s trust circle, no way they keep him.

brant brown dropped the ball: you’re right about the effects of theo overvaluing schwarber, but the guy did hit .400 in the freaking world series that the cubs won. flags fly forever, right? especially this one.

Dave Cameron: You saw what Andrew Miller did in the World Series, right?

Dave Cameron: Having Miller instead of Schwarber, they might have swept.

brant brown dropped the ball: on the yu walk, wasn’t it obvious that this was roberts effectively taunting maddon and carl and the cubs? sending him up was one thing, but having him dance around was just an in-your-face we-own-you move. you don’t think there were some mind games going on that balanced out the numbers for roberts?

Dave Cameron: Darvish says Roberts didn’t say anything to him before his at-bat.

Dave Cameron: So that was all Yu.

Rich: If Nick Senzel makes it to MLB next year where do the Reds place him, and what do they do with the player he replaces?

Dave Cameron: He plays 2B, and Scooter goes back to the bench.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to wrap things up.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for chatting everyone.