Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/15
11:40 |
: It’s Wednesday, and after tonight, we could be out of baseball for a while. Let’s talk about games while there are still games to talk about. Or, if you’re a fan of the other 26 teams, we can do offseason stuff too.
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11:41 |
: The queue is now open, and we’ll get started in a bit.
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12:00 |
: Alright, let’s get going.
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12:00 |
Will the Mets re-sign Murphy? |
12:01 |
: No, I don’t think so. I think they’ll try harder to re-sign Cespedes, and if they can’t get him, go after an SS upgrade and move Flores to second.
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12:01 |
Who are the top 4 teams best set up for a dynasty run |
12:02 |
: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Astros. The Mets would be there if their young core was hitters instead of pitchers, but pitchers break down too much to believe they’re going to have a dominant rotation for years and years.
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12:02 |
Any teasers on trade value movers for offseason update? |
12:03 |
: I haven’t spent much time thinking about it, honestly. The big shifts usually come from injuries. Joc Pederson is going to fall, obviously.
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12:05 |
Do you think LAD ultimately outbids everybody again to keep Greinke? Or could he be heading up to the Bay? |
12:06 |
The Jays aren’t even eliminated yet, but talk radio in Toronto this morning featured discussion about whether the team should trade Tulowitzki to go with a Goins/Travis middle infield, how David Price isn’t worth more than a 5-year deal, and how could this team ever move forward. What is wrong with mainstream sports media? |
12:07 |
: I don’t think it’s just the media; people in general vastly overreact to the most recent events. We’re just really bad at putting things in proper context, especially when it comes to events where one outcome isn’t necessarily meaningful.
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12:07 |
Use 1 word to describe the Mets’ season to date? |
12:07 |
: Fun
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12:07 |
Can we do offseason stuff for the 4 teams too? Just curious your thoughts on Dalton Pompey. He seems ready to jump to the MLB for the 2nd time but is not really a 4th outfielder and is blocked by Pillar/Revere/Bautista. Do you think the Jays will be trying to move him or will they keep him for depth and to be a potential starter in 2017 when Bautista and Revere are FA’s? |
12:08 |
: I don’t think there’s anything wrong with using him, Revere, and Pillar in a three-guys-for-two-jobs platoon.
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12:08 |
If you are the Cubs, what do you do with Schwarber next year? Commit to LF, split time at C, or trade him? He does have some pop, if you haven’t heard. |
12:09 |
: I’d probably keep him around for one more year, and see how the staff responds to him catching a little more regularly. You don’t make him the starter, but maybe he gets 50-60 games behind the plate, and you try to figure out if that’s something that can still be worked towards, and you deal with his outfield defense for the other 100 games.
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12:10 |
: I’m guessing he probably needs to end up in the AL, but I don’t know that we know that for sure quite yet.
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12:10 |
When will Dan Farnsworth held his first FG chat? |
12:11 |
: I think we’re aiming for January. The organizational reports are a ton of work, and we want to give him a good amount of runway to try and get through those before we bog him down with too many other side tasks.
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12:11 |
What should the Pirates do with Pedro Alvarez? If they tender him at $8 mil or so, how much trade value does he have going to an AL club? |
12:11 |
: Non-tender.
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12:11 |
Who’s the best upcoming FA pitcher that will fit the Giants in their hopes for the #EvenYear to continue? |
12:11 |
: Jordan Zimmerman seems like their kind of pitcher.
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12:12 |
While it’s very unlikely for both, which team is more likely to come back, Chicago or Toronto? |
12:12 |
: The team that only needs to win three instead of four.
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12:12 |
Is Cueto actually losing free agent money with his bad second half, or do we see “recency effects” fade over the course of the offseason? |
12:12 |
: He’s still going to get paid, but it will be less than what it would have been if the season ended a few months ago. I’d bet $130ish million now.
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12:12 |
As a Cub fan, should I feel very positive about this year anyway? We have a great young core, are basically ahead of schedule, with cash to spend and a still productive farm system. Is glass half full the right way to look at it? |
12:13 |
: Absolutely. The postseason isn’t deterministic of anything, really, and your team had a great year, with an amazing future coming.
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12:13 |
What’s the Brewers’ short/medium term SS plan? Do they keep Segura around and give him one last chance to recapture some of that 2013 magic, and then if he sucks, bring Arcia up in June or so to start? |
12:14 |
: Probably, but I could see Stearns shipping Segura out and going with a less toolsy but more productive player as well. I doubt Segura is his kind of player.
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12:14 |
How much does post-season performance impact FA value? The agents for David Murphy and David Price will likely be pondering this question….. |
12:15 |
: It matters, but it’s not going to move the needle so dramatically that teams change their entire valuation. You have to adjust Daniel Murphy’s power ability up somewhat, so maybe he gets 4/$50M instead of 3/$36M, but he’s not going to get 6/$100M or something.
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12:16 |
who is the biggest name traded this offseason? |
12:16 |
: I’ll guess Yasiel Puig.
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12:16 |
Perhaps this is too reasonable of a forum, but can you let everyone know that the result of this Mets-Cubs series doesn’t mean the Cubs have a fatal flaw and don’t need to make sweeping changes? Thanks. |
12:17 |
: Yeah, I think we probably need to write a post about this. Drawing conclusions about teams based on postseason performance is silly.
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12:17 |
Does it make more sense for the Astros to re-sign Rasmus for a few years (and maybe platoon him with Marisnick) or go after, say, J Upton for more years/more money? |
12:17 |
: Always depends on specific costs, but I’m not optimistic that the team that signs Upton will be happy with that.
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12:17 |
Are you concerned at all about Arrieta’s dip in velocity, or do you think this is just a tired arm after a long season? |
12:18 | : I wrote about this the other day. |
12:18 |
How stupid would the Mets be to not at least offer Murphy the QO? |
12:18 |
: It would be crazy. Even if they didn’t want him at $15.8M for next year, he’d have positive trade value at that price. It’s an easy decision now.
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12:19 |
For the long run, what young core would you rather have: Mets (Conforto, 4 pitchers), or Cubs (Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Schwarbs, Soler. Baez)? |
12:19 |
: Cubs. Bats over arms.
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12:19 |
Dave what do you make of the Mets ratcheting up their aggressiveness on the basepaths this postseason? 4 steals of 3rd in 8 games vs 5 in the 162 regular season games is a stark change–do you agree with the approach? |
12:20 |
: Yeah, it’s good baserunning. They’re not taking crazy risks; they’re exploiting the element of surprise.
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12:20 |
What do you see the Mets doing this offseason? I’m thinking sign a few bullpen arms, get a bit of pitching depth through minor league signings, maybe go after a trade for a shortstop if there’s somebody available for a reasonable price (seemingly unlikely) |
12:21 |
: Depends on how the next few weeks go. If they win the World Series, that probably puts some pressure on them to do more to keep this group together, re-sign Cespedes, keep Harvey, etc… If they end up falling short, I think they may shake things up a bit more, go for an SS upgrade, maybe look for a better 1B than Duda, etc…
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12:21 |
What will the Astros do or try to do this offseason? |
12:22 |
: They’re going to add a starting pitcher, probably, and I could see them going after another relief ace type, plus they’ll need a left fielder and a first baseman. Lowrie or Valbuena probably get traded.
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12:22 |
If you were Lunhow, what would you do at 3B going forward for the Astros? Is Moran a good enough prospect that you start the year with Valbuena as a stopgap, in hopes that Moran is up by midseason? Or do you try to capitalize on your current roster of inexpensive good players and add a guy like Longoria or Frazier via trade? |
12:22 |
: I’m not that high on Moran, but I think Valbuena is good enough for now. I’d probably focus on other areas of the roster unless there was just a deal too good to pass up for a 3B.
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12:22 |
I’m getting flak for predicting the Nationals at around 88-90 wins next year. Am I crazy? |
12:23 |
: Depends on how their offseason goes, but probably not. If they make a few solid moves to solidify their depth, they still have a very good roster.
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12:23 |
What do you think the first player to accept a QO looks like, either general profile or a player or two? |
12:24 |
: I could maybe see a mid-tier pitcher taking one this winter, given the depth of this class and the weakness of next year’s group. If a guy like Yovanni Gallardo believes in himself, taking 1/$16M for this year and hitting the market agains next winter when there isn’t a Price/Cueto/Greinke/Zimmerman on the market might not be a terrible idea.
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12:25 |
3-1 deficits suck, but if you have to have one, it helps to have the Jays lineup and Estrada/Price/Stroman in the queue, no? |
12:26 |
: Yeah, it isn’t at all crazy to think the Jays could win out. Today’s the tough one, with Estrada and an overworked bullpen, but if they can blast Volquez and get a big lead which lets them ride Marco for 7 innings, Price/Stroman and that offense in the last two isn’t a terrible spot to be in.
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12:26 |
When faced with 4 consecutive must-win games, should a manager try to balance the current must-win game with the need to win 3 more? If so, is there any way to do that other than pray for the scheduled starters to go 6+ at least for the first two games? |
12:27 |
: Yeah, down 3-0, you can’t just play to win every game individually. If it was 3-3, maybe you throw Lester on short rest today, but that doesn’t help you win four straight.
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12:27 |
Starlin Castro for Andrew Cashner. Who hangs up first? |
12:27 |
: Padres, easily. Castro isn’t worth Cashner at this point.
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12:27 |
That ivy play was ridiculous. If Mets ended up losing 4-3 I think fans would rightfully be upset. |
12:27 |
: It’s in the ground rules. It’s been that way forever.
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12:28 |
Assuming they make it, who do you think wins the WS: Mets or Royals? |
12:28 |
: I think the Mets are the better team, but in a short series, it’s basically unpredictable.
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12:28 |
Why do you think it’s so hard for people to understand that when an unexpected outcome occurs, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the forecast or model needs to be discredited? |
12:29 |
: The people who usually say that the model is worthless already held that opinion, and are looking for evidence to support what they already believed. It’s just confirmation bias most of the time.
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12:29 |
Care to give a quick estimate for a Machado extension? Something like $7/13/20 for arb years, then $25-30 for 3-6 FA years? |
12:30 |
: I don’t know why he’d sell his FA years for anything less than $30M apiece, and should probably aim higher.
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12:30 |
Should teams try to steal 3rd more often with one out than what we’re used to seeing (a la the Mets)? Or is the change in W/E not worth the risk? |
12:30 |
: I think stolen bases in general are a little underused right now.
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12:31 |
Which would you rather have over the next 3-5 years, the Mets trio of deGrom/Harvey/Syndergaard or the White trio of Sale/Quintana/Rodon? |
12:31 |
: Mets trio.
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12:31 |
Not in reaction to this series in particular, but are Cubs fans going to be let down next year? It’s almost a given that all of Arrieta, Lester, and Bryant will be less valuable next year, and they’ll probably not have the pitching health luck they had all this year. Even if Schwarber/Baez/Russel/Soler take steps forward — which seems unlikely for all of them — they have a lot of ground to make up to be as good as they were this year. |
12:32 |
: Well, they don’t have to win 97 games every year either. Yeah, they might take a step back next year, but they will still project as a 90+ win team.
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12:32 |
You don’t like the Mets core of hitters like, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Gavin Cecchini and Dominic Smith? I mean, they’re no Cubs, but the pitching is better, |
12:33 |
: There’s way more uncertainty around the Mets minor league hitters than the Cubs major league hitters.
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12:33 |
So Murphy will obviously get at least a medium term deal, but it wont exceed the AAV of the QO, right? |
12:33 |
: Yeah, he’s not getting $16M per year on a long-term deal. I think he gets $12M to $14M per year for 3-4 years.
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12:34 |
I really like John Gibbons as a manager, but I know the perception is that he hasn’t handled is cards that well in the playoffs. How much blame should he get? |
12:34 |
: His bullpen usage has been lousy, but he’s falling into the same traps most managers do. I don’t think we know enough about the stuff managers do that we don’t see to judge.
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12:35 |
Desmond to a New York team? |
12:35 |
: Mets are the most obvious fit. Would imagine Yankees are happy with Gregorius.
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12:35 |
If you had to pick one offseason move that is now the most regretted by that team, what move would you pick? |
12:36 |
: Probably the A’s trading Donaldson. Barreto might turn out to be really good, but if they had hindsight to know that Donaldson would turn into this, they would have kept him.
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12:36 |
Does the Yankees surprising WC birth let them keep on track for shifting away from giving large contracts to old, declining players, or do they break the bank for a couple of guys this off season? |
12:36 |
: Cashman seems pretty committed to depth over stars at this point.
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12:37 |
Schwarber could play 1st, no? He’s can’t be any worse than say, Ryan Howard. |
12:37 |
: Yeah, he could probably play 1st, but Rizzo is in the way.
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12:37 |
2011 Victor Martinez should be schwarbers role. Primary DH and backup catcher so a team isn’t playing someone like drew butera twice a week |
12:38 |
: Managers hate having their backup C start at DH, because if your starting C gets hurt, you have the pitcher hitting, and that’s embarrassing for an AL manager.
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12:38 |
At least the Jays have enough IFs and OFs (and Saunders is also in the OF picture). But what are they going to do about their pitching staff, which is going to be losing a lot of guys? Should they move Osuna and/or Sanchez to the rotation (especially in light of today’s FG article about Osuna’s likely lifespan as a reliever)? |
12:39 |
: I don’t think Sanchez will ever be a good starter. I’d probably try to develop Osuna as one, though. They’re going to have to find some undervalued guys to fill out behind Stroman, though.
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12:39 |
Referencing your comments about young hitters being less injury prone and therefore safer bets than young pitchers, does it make sense for the Mets to trade one of the Harvey/Matz/Wheeler troika (assuming Wheeler comes back and shows he can still throw) for a high end hitting prospect? Harvey has less team control and obviously has had minor issues with the organization, and Wheeler and Matz are both highly regarded prospects. Would the return be worth diluting what looks like a dominant five man rotation in 2016 and beyond? |
12:40 |
: Well, the return is already going to factor in the risk of pitcher attrition. The team trading for one of those guys is going to price that risk in, so you’re not going to be able to turn them into a Carlos Correa or anything.
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12:40 |
Cubs have $150M tied up in Lester, Arrieta FA in a couple of years. So do they sign another $200M for someone like price or do they go they more moderate route for say $90 for Shark or just sign a cheap, short term, reclamation project. |
12:40 |
: I think they go mid-rotation, spend on OF instead.
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12:40 |
Could Strasburg be one of the better/most interesting trade chips available this year? |
12:41 |
: I don’t think they’ll trade him unless they tank next year and are out of it at the deadline.
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12:41 |
Puig for Harvey. Mets re-sign Cespedes. Cespedes/Puig outfield. Yes please? |
12:41 |
: Conforto/Granderson in the corners next year in NYM, so I don’t Puig ending up with the Mets.
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12:42 |
Cubs collapse: small sample? They are good, right? Need a second baseman, some starters, but talk all the Cub fans off the ledge |
12:42 |
: What collapse? They lost three games in a row to a very good team who gets to lean heavily on four guys who throw 98.
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12:42 |
What kind of contract do you predict Dexter Fowler gets, assuming Cubs hang a QO on him? Where do you see him potentially landing? |
12:43 |
: I’d guess something like 4/$60M, but I might be underselling his value a bit.
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12:43 |
What player would you say, right now, has the most NEGATIVE trade value? |
12:44 | : I said Cano in July. |
12:44 |
: Interestingly, the top four guys on that list all had very good second halves. I’d probably still go Cano, but the numbers for the dead money on those guys is all less than it was.
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12:45 |
What is the biggest single upgrade the M’s have to make this offseason (knowing they really have to make several upgrades)? |
12:45 |
: They need a viable major league catcher.
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12:45 |
Could it be possible to make up room for Pompey by moving Bautista to 1B? just looking at his fangraphs page his Def rating went from -5.8 to -18.9 , thats a huge dropoff. |
12:45 |
: If you close off 1B to add another glove-first guy, then the line-up remains too RH-heavy.
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12:46 |
Assuming they don’t pony up $200+ mil for Heyward, would Puig make a viable trade target for the Cards? Puig has a reasonable contract and the Dodgers seem to be ready to part ways with him. The Dodgers won’t just give Puig away, so what would the Cards have to give up to get him? |
12:46 |
: Not their kind of player.
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12:46 |
does lucroy get traded this offseason? |
12:46 |
: They should trade him, absolutely. I don’t know that ownership will go for it though.
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12:46 |
Quick estimate – what would you have projected Johnny Cueto’s free agent contract to be at the all-star break and what would you estimate it be now? |
12:47 |
: 7/160, 6/130, something like that .
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12:47 |
As a Pirates fan, should I be really concerned? Cardinals are Cardinals, and Cubs look like they will be really good as well for some time. Can we move to another division? |
12:47 |
: Your team is still good. It’s the Reds and Brewers who are royally screwed for a while.
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12:47 |
How many years do you think the Royals have in this contention window? |
12:48 |
: There’s no other great teams in the AL Central, so I think they’ll hang around for a few more years, but I’m going to expect another big step back next year.
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12:49 |
Baseball: kinda like the NCAA tournament. It’s about the journey, not the ending. Sometimes you lose. Most of the time you wont win it all. |
12:49 |
: The postseason is for our entertainment, not for determining the quality of a team.
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12:49 |
Think any teams are going to blow up their roster this off-season? Or are they going to wait until the trade deadline? |
12:50 |
: The Mets are just about to reach the World Series after getting projected as a .500ish team, following the Royals doing the same thing last year. Teams don’t want to punt anymore, because the postseason keeps giving them reasons not to.
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12:51 |
Over/under 40% chance Shark takes the QO and becomes the first player to take one. |
12:51 |
: 0% chance he takes it, so under.
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12:52 |
Throwing Arrieta or Lester on short rest isn’t worth it, right? Barring question of whether either of those is better than full-rest Hammel/bullpen, they still need four more starters if they’re making a comeback anyway. |
12:52 |
: Exactly. You have to win two games started by non-Arrieta/Lester pitchers anyway, so no point hurting your chances of winning the games those two do start just to get them up sooner.
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12:52 |
You taking a nice long well deserved vacation after the WS? |
12:53 |
: Well, the offseason starts five days after the WS ends, so not really. The slow time for FG is January/February, after almost all the hot stove stuff is over. That’s when I generally disappear for a bit.
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12:54 |
Seems like the game is getting younger. Is that right? Is that because young players are now better, or teams are smarter about not paying vets? Or lack of PEDs even? |
12:54 |
: No question the game is getting younger. The lack of PEDs has probably had a real impact on how long older players can hang around, and the big velocity gains of late have incentivized teams to go with younger pitching.
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12:55 |
Over or under 7/200 for Price this offseason? |
12:55 |
: Over. I think he’ll get Scherzer’s deal without the backloading.
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12:55 |
What position does Schwarber play, long term. |
12:55 |
: 1B/DH. He’s a left-handed Mike Napoli, I think.
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12:56 |
everyone says the mets trio, but there are a lot of people who think matz and wheeler are as good, if not better than those 3… isnt that nuts? |
12:56 |
: Yes, anyone who thinks Matz and Wheeler are better than Harvey/deGrom/Syndergaard is nuts.
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12:57 |
Does Ben Zobrist start at 2B for Kansas City next year, or is the $18 mil in sunk(!) costs on Infante too big a bar? |
12:57 |
: They won’t be able to afford him. I could see the Yankees making a big push for him to be a 2B/OF hybrid for them.
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12:57 |
Doesn’t $30m per FA year for Machado price him (or any youngster signing long term) for perfection? Where is the upside to the team in that contract? uch greater likelihood of underperformance due to injury than outperformance |
12:58 |
: Uh, no. Price of a win by the Machado gets to FA will be over $10M, probably.
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12:58 |
no way the Mets sign Desmond. Alderson would never do that. Strikes out WAY too much for a SS. What’s wrong with Tejada/Flores combo until Amed Rosario or Gavin Cecchini is ready? |
12:59 |
: They very nearly traded for him last winter, so I don’t think your read on Alderson’s desire to acquire him is correct.
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12:59 |
Wait, Murphy at $16M has trade value? That may be a stretch. Anyway, he’d be unlikely to accept the QO now, so it’s moot. |
12:59 |
: $16M for one year. Teams pay a premium for avoiding long-term risk.
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1:00 |
True or false: If the A’s still had Donaldson, they could get a better package now with one less year of control than they did last offseason. |
1:00 |
: True, but it also wasn’t reasonable to expect Donaldson to do what he just did.
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1:00 |
Thing is Donaldson *was* this. |
1:01 |
: This is just clearly wrong. 129 wRC+ last year, 154 wRC+ this year. From +6.5 WAR to +8.7 WAR this year.
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1:01 |
Hey Dave I am trying to write an auto-ethnography for my college writing class and I am choosing to do it on sabermetrics in baseball and i was curious if you would be willing to talk to me and answer a few questions I have for it? |
1:02 |
: Sure, hit me up on Twitter and we’ll work out the logistics.
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1:03 |
What free agent contract do you think is the most difficult to predict this offseason? |
1:03 |
: Matt Wieters, maybe. Lots of variables there.
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1:04 |
Puig not being the Cardinals kind of player – due to his his attitude, flashiness, etc.? I might argue that’s exactly what the Cardinals need…inject some life into the team & add a player with immense upside. |
1:04 |
: They like contact hitters and have some magic voodoo that teaches guys with no power how to hit for power. They’ll add swing-and-miss sluggers in role playing spots, but when was the last time they had a core guy who was power-before-hit?
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1:05 |
Would you have pinch-hit for DeGrom in the sixth last night? Second and third, two outs, and the Cubs’ heart of the order coming up for his third time through. |
1:05 |
: Absolutely, yes.
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1:06 |
With that back-up slider and all the changeups, does K. Hendricks remind you a little of G. Maddux? Both very cerebral as well. I’m aware that you’re never, ever supposed to compare people to Maddux. |
1:06 |
: I’d say he’s a shorter Doug Fister.
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1:06 |
In the playoffs good pitching beats good hitting, and the Mets are showing that right now. Why do you think the Cubs are better positioned for the future then? The Mets have 5 awesome young pitchers, so one or two injuries shouldn’t hurt them too much. |
1:06 |
: Your cliche is false.
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1:07 |
Do you think Mets make a real run at resigning Cespedes? I just don’t buy him as the guy Alderson wants to waste the big bullet on… |
1:07 |
: I think they make a run at him in the same way the Red Sox made a run at Lester. They’d like to have him back at their price, so they’ll offer him a below market deal, most likely.
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1:07 |
Zobrist contract possibility? |
1:08 |
: 4/70
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1:08 |
If he doesn’t resign with the Mets who do you think signs Daniel Murphy? Would this be the type of outfielder DiPoto would like likely target? |
1:08 |
: I could see him with the Angels, as either a 2B or 3B. They want an LH bat and he fits their roster.
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1:09 |
left handed Mike Napoli? Seriously? Even if the catcher experiment is a complete bust and he’s unable to stick in the outfield, Mike Napoli would mean you expect no growth at all from Schwarber at the plate. He’s been raking in the big leagues this year at 22. |
1:10 |
: What’s he going to improve, realistically? He doesn’t have a contact swing, so the strikeouts are always going to be part of his game. He already has developed power, he draws walks, he’s not going to get better defensively as he gets older…
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1:11 |
Does FanGraphs disclose which exact BaseRuns formula it uses in the Projected Standings page? |
1:11 |
: We use the one with SB/CS included.
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1:11 |
Hey Dave, is Puig a fit with the Braves? Seems like they’re destined to go after him or Soler… |
1:12 |
: I don’t see it. I think they probably have a more low-key off-season while they prep for the stadium to open.
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1:12 |
I would argue Schwarber does n’t have a strikeout swing. It is very compact and with strong bat speed. He wasn’t a huge K guy in minors or college. Bryant on the other hand, has a strikeout swing. |
1:13 |
: 67% contact rate in the big leagues this year. Even if he can get that up to 70-75%, that’s still a lot of swing and miss.
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1:13 |
Thoughts on what a Heyward contract may look like? If it becomes too pricey for the Cards what other teams could you see being in the running? |
1:13 |
: I’m guessing 9/$195M. I could see the Cubs pushing hard to get him away from STL.
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1:14 |
: Okay, on that note, I’m off to get some work done before the games start. Enjoy the rest of the LCS, everyone.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Should the Jays consider moving Bautista to first base next season? Seems like Heyward (ideally) or another left handed bat in right (who can play above replacement level defense) would be a good idea.