Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/29/14

Dave Cameron: It’s the final in-season chat of the year. Let’s talk Game 7, or free agency, or trade speculation, or dogs.

Comment From a skepitc
any chance your game 7 pitching plans actually happen?

Dave Cameron: For those that haven’t seen the plan: http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

Dave Cameron: To answer your question: no, I don’t think we see these specific roles used, but I do think both sides will be very aggressive in using their relievers tonight. The big question for SF is how long Bumgarner can go. My guess is Yost would still rather use Herrera-Davis-Holland consecutively, so maybe they only pitch innings 5-9, and he uses everyone else to try and get through the fourth.

Comment From Andrew
Bochy should start Perez tonight…true or false.

Dave Cameron: True. He’s a better player than Ishikawa.

Comment From Sequester Grundleplith, M.D.
You have written in the past that, in one game wild card playoffs, a good strategy is to just empty your bullpen to prevent any “third time through the order” issues. Is that also a good idea in a Game 7, especially a World Series Game 7?

Dave Cameron: Yep. I’d let Tim Hudson face the top of the Royals order a second time, since it’s two RH batters sandwiching Nori Aoki, but no reason to let him face more than 12 hitters. And I’d be even more aggressive with Guthrie.

Comment From the italian stallion
are you a coffee or espresso man?

Dave Cameron: Neither. I might be the only person from Seattle who doesn’t drink coffee.

Comment From Jared
Not that it matters but, if the Giants don’t win in a blowout, is the MVP of the series whoever gets the game winning hit?

Dave Cameron: It’s Bumgarner if Giants win, no matter what happens tonight. If Royals win, then it’s probably whoever is their hero tonight.

Comment From Walter
Will Cistulli continue to contribute to Fangraphs, or is he leaving along with Notgraphs? After the loss of Wendy, I’d be sad to see him go!

Dave Cameron: Carson’s sticking around.

Comment From mtsw
Would you support adding an extra day off in the schedule before a game 7 in the World Series in order to build hype for it? Given the unusual pitching circumstances (everyone available to pitch), it seems like it wouldn’t have an effect on strategy really.

Dave Cameron: No. I’d rather have fewer off days, not more.

Comment From Jeff in T.O.
My sister in law and husband just got two Lab puppies. They have a 3 year old and a 6 month old. What were they thinking?

Dave Cameron: They might be hoping the labs eat the children, giving them reason to put the dogs down, and restoring sanity to their lives?

Comment From War2d2
Trade possibility: You trade Liberty to Cistulli for America and a schnauzer to be named later. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: I don’t want a second dog.

Dave Cameron: And an unnamed second dog would be worse. How do you call it?

Comment From Bill
Do you believe the report that the Red Sox will be in the Kung Fu Panda bidding (beyond token interest)?

Dave Cameron: Yep. I think he ends up there.

Comment From Eminor3rd
How do you feel about the Contract Crowdsourcing results at first glance? They feel like they’ll be more accurate this year to me. Less lowballing on the high end

Dave Cameron: Still pretty light at the top, I think.

Comment From Guest
Old timey strategy/analytics icons: Bill James, Earl Weaver, Peter Gammons. Any use to us today, or just adorable pieces of history?

Dave Cameron: I’m more of the opinion that people’s ideas should be considered on their own merit, rather than judging the value of the opinion based on who said it.

Comment From Andrew
What is your prediction for Pablo in FA? How much and from whom?

Dave Cameron: 6/110 from Boston.

Comment From mtsw
Do we know anything about whether winning Game 6 in a 7 game series makes winning Game 7 more likely? I know “momentum” is mostly a myth but it seems like it could really be a factor in this circumstance.

Dave Cameron: No, it’s entirely a myth.

Comment From Doug
The Red Sox are (publicly) blaming their 2014 failure on relying on too many rookies. Obviously, rookies are harder to predict than veterans or established players, but it’s not like veterans never have bad or off-years either. Should teams try to avoid relying on multiple rookies at once, or should it be looked at as just a one-off failure in Boston last year?

Dave Cameron: It’s a talking point, nothing more.

Comment From mtsw
Dog question: my girlfriend wants a dog that feels like “a real dog,” i.e. not one with short legs or a tiny toy dog. But we live in a small apartment in New York so an objectively large dog is problematic. What’s an acceptable compromise breed?

Dave Cameron: Maybe a bulldog? Short legs thing might rule it out, but they are so thick that they still look like real dogs even though they aren’t tall.

Comment From Stan
The Blue Jays have a 10 MM option on Brandon Morrow and as a Cubs fan I am salivating to see if Chris Bosio can help him stay healthy. What do you say?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Chris Bosio has much to do with health. Morrow should just move to the bullpen full time.

Comment From Eric
Jacob DeGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Juan Lagares for Yasiel Puig — who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Mets, probably. They need quantity of talent more than they need to consolidate roster spots.

Comment From Eric
Among the last 15 world series, where does this one rank? It’s gone the distance, but none of the games have been that special.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, pretty low, I’d say. Not a lot of great games in the series.

Comment From mtsw
Is Jeremy Guthrie the worst starter ever to start Game 7 of a World Series?

Dave Cameron: Oliver Perez a few years ago, I believe.

Comment From BJP
It is almost November, freezing outside. The NBA, NHL and NFL seasons are going. It is great that we have a world series game 7, but shouldnt this have been happening 3 weeks ago ? Wouldn’t it be better for promoting the game? Baseball doesn’t seem like baseball this time of year.

Dave Cameron: If you want an earlier WS, you have two options: shorten the season (won’t happen for money reasons) or start the regular season in March (every other game is rained out). Neither plan is feasible.

Comment From Dave
Most important pending FA to re-sign for Baltimore- Cruz, Miller, Markakis, or none-of-the-above and why?

Dave Cameron: Miller, best of the three.

Comment From Hi Erix
Regardless of whether it’s a good idea or not, do you see a team going 8 years for Scherzer?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. When was the last time a pitcher got 8 years? Mike Hampton?

Comment From Matt
I see readers in Crowdsourcing Contracts once again grossly underestimated team’s willingness overpay for the “top end” free agents. I mean 7/$160M seems more realistic for Lester than Scherzer. Not a chance HanRam gets under $100M.

Dave Cameron: Keep in mind that the published results are the median of all the people who voted. If we polled all the teams, we might get a similar number, but the contract that will actually be signed will be from the team who had the highest offer. If we just published the 95th percentile projections, the numbers would be a lot higher.

Comment From Mooking for Love
Is there a story to the patriotic dog names we haven’t heard, or do you guys just really love the USA?

Dave Cameron: Neither of our dog’s names have to do with patriotism, actually.

Comment From Bruce
You and everyone is saying Bumgarner should go 2 or 3 inings tonight, but there is almost no precedent for pitchers going on 2 days rest. Where does the 2-3 innings come from? How do we know he cant go 5?

Dave Cameron: Pitchers generally throw a bullpen in between starts, and it lasts about 25-30 pitches. Essentially, it moves his throw day into the game action. Bumgarner probably could physically go five, but there are plenty of reasons to think that others would be more effective for those extra innings than a tired Bugmarner.

Comment From David
What’s your guess for worst FA contract handed out? Who and to which team?

Dave Cameron: I think the Victor Martinez contract could easily be a disaster. He’s going to get 4/70 or something from someone, maybe the Mariners, and it’s not going to go well.

Comment From Loose Seal
Should Yost and Bochy go to bullpens early even if their starters are pitching well?

Dave Cameron: Yep. The last thing you want to do is let a mediocre starter lose a game because you were waiting for him to implode before you took him out.

Comment From Albert
Andrew Miller FA contract prediction? He seems like one of the most interesting free agents this off-season.

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 4/40.

Dave Cameron: I think the crowd was way low on that one.

Comment From JK Rowling
Is home field advantage also a myth? And if not, what about it is quantifiably helpful to the home team?

Dave Cameron: Home Field advantage is a legitimate thing. The variables that likely help: comfort, reduced travel fatigue, knowledge of the park, enthusiasm of the fans, umpires favoring home teams subconsciously.

Comment From Guy
“I’m more of the opinion that people’s ideas should be considered on their own merit, rather than judging the value of the opinion based on who said it.”— Should I take this to mean that when Bill James says he’s got no use for WAR, that to you, it’s the same as if some troll said so?

Dave Cameron: He didn’t say he had no use for it. But yes, I don’t put a lot of stock in Bill’s opinion of WAR, because he doesn’t really know that much about it.

Dave Cameron: I can respect Bill James and what he’s done without canonizing his opinions on everything related to baseball statistics.

Comment From please
Once rode in an elevator on the lower west side with a man and his great dane. Don’t get a large dog in New York.

Dave Cameron: There’s a few great danes who come to the dog park where I take Liberty. They are horses, basically.

Comment From Andrew
Anything in particular you see “wrong” with Posey? Worn down, small sample size, maybe a little of both?

Dave Cameron: His stuff just isn’t that good anymore.

Comment From Tanana
Why wouldn’t Bochy just start Bumgarner and ride him as far as he can go? Will his performance really fall off that much on short rest? I feel like the risk of injury deterrence is overblown.

Dave Cameron: The track record of pitchers going on three days rest in the postseason is mostly terrible. Rest matters.

Comment From Matt
Why would any team want Sandoval over Headley? He is a better player, seems to be better bet for health, and I imagine he’ll be much cheaper.

Dave Cameron: Offensive performance ages better than defensive performance.

Comment From Josh
Perez started game 7 of the NLCS

Dave Cameron: Well then it’s a more interesting question.

Comment From Oren
Who’s going to trade for Adam Lind?

Dave Cameron: Oakland, maybe?

Comment From Bill
Did I miss the announcement? Where is Wendy going?

Dave Cameron: She wanted to take a break from baseball writing. You can find her at @hangingsliders on Twitter, and she’ll link to her future writing stuff there, i’d imagine.

Comment From Josh in DC
Hey Dave — I say this as a big fan of your work, so I can’t figure out a polite way to ask this. I mean no offense: what makes you an expert? I really like this site. I really like your analysis. But how did you wind up making a living off this stuff?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think I am an expert. I think my marketable skill is that I’m somewhat able to communicate complicated ideas from people smarter than me to a wider audience, and I’m capable of writing both quickly and frequently. I kind of see myself as a middle man between the real experts and the casual fan.

Dave Cameron: Or slightly more than casual fan, maybe.

Comment From stdeve
biggest name to be traded this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann. Which of those three is the biggest name?

Comment From Bill
Should big money teams consider offering higher salary but shorter years for guys like Hanley? Say 2 for 50 rather than 5 for 100?

Dave Cameron: Players want long term security. They’ll take the years over the AAV.

Comment From Jesse
Would pursuing Jason Heyward make sense for the White Sox? Obviously signing him long term would be essential.

Dave Cameron: They’re not in that spot yet. Keep collecting controllable assets for now.

Comment From Guest
How long are the exclusive negotiating rights for FA after the WS? Any chance the Giants lock up Panda before Boston or anybody else can even talk to him like they did with Pence last year?

Dave Cameron: Five days. And I can’t see Sandoval giving up FA rights this close to reaching the open market.

Comment From Brandon
What’s wrong with a 3-3-1 World Series format? Fewer off days, home field advantage gets exaggerated, seems like a net positive?

Dave Cameron: How are there fewer off days? 2-3-2 has two travel days, just like 3-3-1.

Comment From Bill
Where is Giancarlo playing in August 2015?

Dave Cameron: Miami.

Comment From hats
What’s Friedman’s first big move as head of Dodger ops?

Dave Cameron: I bet he makes an early strike to trade an outfielder and setup the rest of his winter. Maybe Kemp.

Comment From Eric
Which FA projection was the crowd too high on?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Shields gets five years or $90 million.

Comment From Guest
I’m interested to see the whet Contract Crowdsourcing 95th percentile (or even 80th is the 95th is irrational) looks like? Can you make Cistulli get on that? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’ll probably do some more crowdsourcing follow-up posts.

Comment From Dan
From a statistical and analytical standpoint, which do we understand the role of less: catchers or managers?

Dave Cameron: Managers.

Comment From Da Bear
Bill James certainly does have a use for WAR, he just multiplies it by 3, and starts counting from zero instead of 47, and calls it something else.

Dave Cameron: WAR was essentially created because of how terrible Win Shares was. But that isn’t to pile on James; this stuff is not so easy to tackle, especially by yourself. That’s why I wouldn’t put much stock in James saying the concepts haven’t been well thought through.

Comment From mtsw
Feel like I’m skeptical of New York advice from a person who thinks there’s a place in NYC called “The Lower West Side”

Comment From Tanana
“The track record of pitchers going on three days rest in the postseason is mostly terrible. Rest matters.” – so why are you recommending they use Bumgarner at all?

Dave Cameron: Throwing two innings in relief is a lot different than making a five inning start.

Comment From Vanessa Williams
Re: “His stuff just isn’t that good anymore.” What is a batter/position player’s “stuff”?

Dave Cameron: I thought the question was about Peavy, not Posey. My mistake.

Comment From That One Guy
Do you think that Victor Martinez’s switch-hitting and apparent plate discipline will keep his contract, even at 4 years, from becoming a complete disaster?

Dave Cameron: Nope. He’s been a switch-hitter with good contact skills for a while, and he wasn’t very good in the last few years before 2014.

Comment From Prich
Are the Nats going to talk to Werth’s representatives make phone calls to gauge team’s interests this Winter to see what’s possible… Seems like a good way for the Nats to clear salary from an organizational position of strength to me…

Dave Cameron: Werth has a full no-trade. Probably doesn’t want to go anywhere.

Comment From @YancyEaton
Who owns Fangraphs? Is there an office building somewhere? It’s shrouded in mystery.

Dave Cameron: David Appelman founded the site, and is the President of the company. We don’t have an office.

Comment From brian
of Cueto, Zimmerman and Hamels….hamels returns the biggest package? Locked up for more than a year at probably somewhat less than FA value (fewer years if nothing else).

Dave Cameron: Depends on if PHI is willing to eat money. I think Cueto has the most surplus value of the three, probably.

Comment From Bill
Zimmermann has more characters than Hamels or Cueto – so it’s a bigger name! What are Nats looking to add by dealing JZ?

Dave Cameron: Their big hole is at 2B (or 3B, if they stick with Rendon at 2nd).

Comment From The Big Dipper
What is a good discount rate to use when calculating the present value of player contracts?

Dave Cameron: It’s basically impossible to know the right number, so I usually use 5%.

Dave Cameron: But you could really defend almost anything between 3-10%.

Comment From Swiper
Bovada has MadBum’s O/U tonight set at 1 1/3. That’s an easy over right?

Dave Cameron: If he pitches, yes. But there are probably a bunch of scenarios where he doesn’t pitch that would drive that number down.

Comment From Jack
A couple of teams you expect to be active this off-season and will be interesting to watch

Dave Cameron: I think the Red Sox and Cubs drive most of the off-season.

Comment From That One Guy
He wasn’t listed in your big names, so I gather that you do not think the Tigers would trade David Price this offseason? They have some big holes to fill, and while that would open an SP hole, that seems easier for them to fill than CF, RF, RP.

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine they’d move Price, no.

Comment From Fake Walt Whitman
Any tips on going to Arizona to watch AFL games?

Dave Cameron: Hit up Kiley McDaniel on Twitter, @kileymcd. He’ll have better information than I will.

Comment From Bobby A
Why not let MadBum pitch the first 2 innings?

Dave Cameron: You want to maximize the PAs vs LHBs. Why have him start an inning with Escobar and Cain batting?

Comment From stdeve
how many more years would Kershaw have to pitch at his current level of ability for him to be considered HoF-worthy?

Dave Cameron: Two.

Dave Cameron: And then hang around for a little while.

Comment From Greg
What does Shields get in your opinion? Less?

Dave Cameron: 4/78ish.

Comment From Gropx
Unless their contract explicitly states otherwise: if a player opts out of a long term deal, can their club still make them a QO?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From DTSS
Why would Zimmermann be traded? Nats need to win now. Who else could use him more than they could? They’re not rebuilding.

Dave Cameron: They have too many 2015 expiring contracts, and are probably better off moving some of their short term value for longer term value to keep their window open beyond next year.

Comment From Rick
If Dodgers traded Kemp to the Mariners – what could they get back if they ate half the contract?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers probably going to need an SS, and Mariners have depth with Miller and Taylor. I wouldn’t be surprised if Friedman tried to get one of the two.

Comment From Guest
I have a St. Bernard that lives near me. It is basically a slobbering lion with massive paws. It is the most adorable and terrifying dog.

Dave Cameron: There was a St. Bernard at the dog park the other day, and Liberty cowered in fear even though it barely moved. Just the sight of it scared the crap out of her.

Comment From Luke
Prediction for contract and destination for Tomas?

Dave Cameron: Phillies, 6/$100M.

Comment From Joe
Do you think MLB likes having two sub-90 win second place teams in the World Series? Or do you think this will make them tinker with the WC even more?

Dave Cameron: Bud Selig has been trying to get teams besides the Yankees in the WS for 20 years. He probably loves this.

Comment From Bill
Does Elias and Saunders get the Mariners Cueto?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Edward
Who do you view as the most likely to be traded of the Reds’ starters between Cueto and Latos? And if they are traded what is the likelihood of getting a package similar to what the Cubs got for Samardzija, Hammel?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Latos is easy to trade this winter. Huge velo decline last year, plus a DL stint; they need to hold him and hope he rebuilds value.

Dave Cameron: Cueto won’t get you Addison Russell, but he’d command a very good prospect, or a package of solid ones.

Comment From STiVo
Do you think the Strasburg-for-Betts trade could actually happen… or just a statement that Strasburg is the type of value the Sox would require to pull the trigger?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it will happen. I think it’s a fascinating trade for both sides, though.

Comment From ML
If the Red Sox and Cubs drive the offseason, does that imply the Red Sox will go away from their 2012/13 model of useful free agents on shorter term contracts, or will the plunge in, hoping to match a couple of stars with their younger players (and what’s left of Ortiz?)

Dave Cameron: They have a lot of money to spend and need to make several trades to make their glut of OFs work. I think they’ll be very busy even if they don’t go nuts in FA.

Comment From Andrew
so now that you know the question was about Posey, is there anything “wrong” with him? Or simply small sample size.

Dave Cameron: He’s probably fine.

Comment From Guest
Can players put clauses in their contract which makes it unable for the team to tender them a qualifying offer? Why wouldn’t every mid market player do this?

Dave Cameron: Nope, not allowed.

Comment From mtsw
Could you see the QO system being changed so that the offering team receives a draft pick, but the team that gets the player as a FA doesn’t have to give one up? Seems like there’s a class of players whose market is seriously hurt by being given the QO because of the way the draft pick works.

Dave Cameron: That’s the entire point of the system. It’s a tax designed to drive prices down.

Comment From Reds Guy
Who do you see as a better lefty in baseball right now: Bumgarner or Sale?

Dave Cameron: Sale.

Comment From Elvis
with the 10 year US treasury note at around 2.30%, how could you possibly justify the use of a 10% discount rate in calculating the PV of player contracts?

Dave Cameron: The baseball economy is very likely to grow at a higher rate than the national economy over the next decade.

Dave Cameron: No one is signing a 50 year contract, so we don’t have to worry about the long term.

Comment From Fronk
Can I see a picture of liberty?

:

Comment From Tanana
Is Cliff Lee untradeable right now? If so, is that due to his elbow or his contract?

Dave Cameron: Yes, both.

Dave Cameron: If he comes back and pitches well next year, he’ll be tradable at the deadline.

Comment From Grant
When will the FanGraphs PoY award be announced?

Dave Cameron: Monday.

Comment From JayT
A good small dog that feels like a “real” dog is the pug. Very sturdy animals and lots of fun to be around, but they also don’t mind living in apartments.

Dave Cameron: And we’ll end on that note. I’ll be back here tonight with Jeff to live blog Game 7, so come back in a few hours and let’s do this again.