Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/22/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Everyone is in camp, games are happening shortly… baseball is almost back.

Dave Cameron: Let’s talk about the 2017 season, or just about anything else on your mind.

The Average Sports Fan: What pace of play initiative are you most in favor of? Most opposed to?

Dave Cameron: I’m pro-pitch clock. Almost every pace/length problem gets solved if we shave 2-3 seconds off the time between pitches. In 2015, when players actually were trying to speed things up, it was really noticeable, and the game was way more enjoyable to watch. And then it all went away last year for no reason.

Dave Cameron: In terms of most opposed, no one thinks that runner on 2nd in extra innings thing is a good idea.

ChiSox2020: What is holding up a White Sox-Nats trade? Sox need C Nats need CP. Seems perfect, make the cash work.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Wieters signing does anything to make a Robertson trade more likely. They could have already traded Severino for Robertson and cash if they wanted to; having Wieters around on a one year deal doesn’t change that calculation at all. And Norris/Lobaton have very little value around the league, so the White Sox aren’t going to be jumping at the chance to land either.

Dave Cameron: If the White Sox want to just take Norris, maybe they’ll make a small trade, but Washington now has less money to spend, and the White Sox aren’t going to pay Robertson down to get a meh catcher.

bl27: Robbie Ray was solid in 2015 with a 3.52 ERA and a good HR/9 rate. What to expect from him in 2017 ?

Dave Cameron: I think his strikeout rate and quality of contact allowed were directly related. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stopped throwing the ball down the middle so much, so he threw fewer strikes, and both his BABIP and K% went down.

Charlie: What do you think about the new/proposed rules?

Dave Cameron: No one will miss the intentional walk once games begin; the yelling about it now is just because people don’t have anything else to talk about. I would have liked to see the strike zone raised, because it’s simply gotten too big.

The Cincinnati Kid: With quite a few divisions being so top-heavy, could you see a lot of sellers this year and less buyers at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: No, because the wild card contenders are all meh, so there are going to be a lot of .500ish teams thinking they have a chance.

Pinto: Seems like the Tigers were holding on to all their stars to see if they could give Illitch a title. With his passing, does the plight of their future now change?

Dave Cameron: I think 2017 is probably the last hurrah for this group. If they aren’t winning this summer, J.D. Martinez is an obvious trade chip, but I’d bet they listen on Verlander too, and then shop Miggy next winter.

Jose Q: I’m REEEEAALLY starting to think I’m still gonna be oitching for ChiSox on OD – please advise.

Dave Cameron: All depends on spring training injuries. If one of the teams that was kicking the tires on Quintana suffers a big injury, talks could heat back up quickly.

Brett W: Dave, would it be rude to tweet at players in friendly and respectful language that fans would like the union to cooperate with the league on pace-of-play issues? There should be limited concern among players because these issues would presumably affect all teams and players equally.

Dave Cameron: If you’re friendly and respectful, and just send them one message, that’s probably fine, but I think most people are self-interested, and players aren’t going to want to change their routine just because you’d enjoy it more.

Chuncey Wiggins: Would you be on board with limiting pitcher/catcher conferences to just once an inning or once a batter as a better way to speed up the game?

Dave Cameron: Yep. No other sport has unlimited timeouts; MLB doesn’t need them either.

mtsw: What exactly is Rob Manfred doing with this intentional walk nonsense? Seems like a good way to turn hardcore fans against him for an EXTREMELY marginal return on game length.

Dave Cameron: If you’re turning against him because he got rid of the intentional walk, you need a therapist.

Jeff: If Justin Upton has a more usual JUp year (3-4 win player) will he opt out considering Cespedes got $110M (Upton would have 89 mil left)

Dave Cameron: Depends on if he really wants out of Detroit. He’s unlikely to get a raise unless he has a monster year.

Jeff: Where do you see Derek Norris ending up now with the Wieters signing?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays took him.

mtsw: The arbitration system rewarding saves seems pernicious because it not only screws players, but also messes up the on-field product by encouraging teams to use their bullpen sub-optimally to prevent arb-eligible guys from accumulating saves. Should baseball’s management re-examine this even if it results in a net loss to owners?

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t have to be a loss for owners. Both sides have an incentive to make sure that players are compensated in a way that makes sense. This shouldn’t be that hard for the league and union to agree on.

Natitude Adjuster: Wieters over/under wRC+ in 2017 with the Nats: 85?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the over on 85, but not by a lot.

Youngman: Assuming the Braves are not in the playoff picture by the mid-point, do they attempt to flip most of their short term pieces like Colon, Garcia, Markakis and so on? Could an absolute dreadful 1st half push Coppy into trading core pieces like Teheran, Freeman, and Ender?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll probably end up keeping most of their short-term guys, just because no one is giving up much for a Colon or Dickey type, since those guys wouldn’t start a playoff game anyway. Garcia maybe if he has a good year. At this point, it seems pretty clear that the organization thinks their rebuild is almost over, and they won’t be trading core pieces.

Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: True or false: it’s best for baseball if Trout spends his entire career as an Angel.

Dave Cameron: False. It’s best for baseball if he plays in October.

Erik: Currently, six teams (Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nationals) are projected for 90+ wins, with a decent-sized gap separating them from the rest of the pack. What team from outside that 6 would you be least surprised to see having the best record in the league at the end of the season?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mets. We have them at ~85 wins with no starter throwing 200 innings, and only Thor throwing more than 180. If they get good pitcher health, they should push 90.

Von Schloss: Does Mallex Smith have a much of a chance at playing time or does he need the Rays to make some moves to clear that logjam?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably a 2018 piece.

lunch: a year from now, could swanson /albies be the poor man’s correa / altuve? seems like wishful thinking.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think both are probably a bit overhyped at this point, and Correa/Altuve are special. Maybe Crawford/Panik is more likely, and would still be a great outcome for ATL.

Paul: Do you think Matt Kemp might show some improvement defensively after losing 30 pounds this offseason?

Dave Cameron: It can’t hurt, but then again, Matt Kemp has been thinner before and has never been a good defender.

Roadhog: Could Sonny Gray still be traded to the Astros before the season? Are they still looking to add a starter?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they really need one. Especially with the depth of their bullpen, I have no problem rolling with Fiers, Morton, and Musgrove at the back-end of their rotation.

Colin: How long does Billy Hamilton remain a 50+ steals threat?

Dave Cameron: He’s fast enough that I would think only an injury is going to knock him out of that group.

GERB: Do the projected standings take strength of schedule into account? I would think the CLE and DET would get a pump for playing 1/3 of their games against the Royals, Twins, and Whitesox

Dave Cameron: The projected standings do not include a schedule adjustment. The playoff odds, which will come out soon, will take schedule into account.

Ryan: In addition to the pitch clock could the rule be enforced to keep players in the batters box? I don’t need to see Bryce Harper re-adjust his gloves after every pitch during every at-bat.

Dave Cameron: Yep. I think if you reduce the extra stuff in between pitches, by both hitters and pitchers, you solve almost all of the problems.

Tommy N: thoughts on Carter Capps delivery?

Dave Cameron: Should be illegal.

Jaff: Who has a better 2017 Jharel Cotton or Tanner Roark?

Dave Cameron: Roark.

Doug: What’s the holdup with Joe Blanton? He could be a big addition to pretty much any bullpen.

Dave Cameron: He’s got to be waiting for someone to get hurt at this point.

Guest: What do you make of the very public fight between Levine and Betances?

Dave Cameron: Levine is an idiot.

Jason : I’m trying to educate myself better on the metrics associated with Statcast. Any books or sites you could direct me to?

Dave Cameron: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast

Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Best long-term prospect: Kopech or Y. Alvarez?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take Kopech.

Steve: Which side of the Robert Gsellman argument are you on? Guy has been a pretty polarizing topic of conversation this offseason

Dave Cameron: He looked pretty good to me last year. The stuff is there, he missed bats, he throws strikes. I know he came out of nowhere, but hard to argue with what he did to MLB hitters, and it’s not like he’s throwing 88.

Mike M: Can we ever get metrics on players’ pages to help understand them? For example, Bryant had a 30.8% O-Swing% last year. It would be nice to see how much above or below average that is, or what percentile.

Dave Cameron: You can click “show averages” and it will give you the league average for that year.

Drew: How do you deal with the raising of the strike zone disproportionately affecting some pitchers and teams? Do you have to build in a warning period to allow teams to adjust to that? I don’t think Hisashi Iwakuma would have a career anymore if they raised the strike zone, for example.

Dave Cameron: The guys who were disproportionately helped by the zone dropping for no reason don’t really have standing to claim they’re getting screwed by fixing it.

J: Why is everyone talking about the Nats pen? It’s not deep but Kelley should fine right?

Dave Cameron: On talent, Kelley is fine, but I think there’s probably some merit to not wanting to push a double-TJ guy too hard. As a setup guy, you can give him off days more easily than as the closer.

The Oriole Bird: PSA: It appears ZiPS are in for player pages. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: They went up over the weekend.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you feel like there is a pace of play/length of game issue?

Dave Cameron: Absolutely. Even if you think the game is the perfect pace/length now, you can’t ignore the trends; the game is getting slower and longer.

Dave Cameron: That’s a problem.

Andrew: It’s July and the Jays are struggling. Donaldson for Bregman: who says no?

Dave Cameron: You’re not giving up a franchise cornerstone for a guy who has 1.5 years left at arb prices.

v2micca: I’m willing to bet $100 that by midway through the 2018 season, if there is even a discussion regarding the intentional walk, it will be along the lines of “why did we waste so many years making the pitcher lob four balls?”

Dave Cameron: I have literally never heard anyone say they were really interested in watching four-ball walks until the idea of it going away was raised. It’s such a non-issue.

v2micca: Phillips over/under wRC+ in 2017 with the Braves: 95

Dave Cameron: Under.

RMR: On pace of play, you don’t think that the drastic shift toward “three true outcomes” is a crucial part of the perceived problem? I agree time between pitches is important, but decreased frequency of batted balls strikes me as the bigger aesthetic difference.

Dave Cameron: They’re all issues. Baseball needs more balls in play, less time between pitches, and if they can get the average length of game down (especially in the postseason), then that’s good as well.

Mike: What did you make of the Thomas Boswell column in the Washington Post in which Daniel Murphy talks about how he studies FanGraphs to figure out how to hit better? Is this a surprise to you? Or just another day in the life of Dave Cameron?

“I read FanGraphs a lot. I’m kind of a geek,” he said. “It’s cool because with all the data we’ve been given now, we’ve kind of been given some of the answers to the test.”

Dave Cameron: It’s always fun to hear players are reading this stuff, but it’s stopped being a surprise. The incentives for players to understand how they’re being evaluated are real, and even if they don’t buy into everything, you want to know what your owners and GM are looking at.

Dan: Has MLB even considered making RPs face 2 batters unless an inning ends, and being ready to throw when they come in mid-inning? Those are the two things that slow down the game the most in my opinion. And they’ve only gotten worse with endless pitching changes (especially in September).

Dave Cameron: The problem with all the suggestions about limiting pitching changes is that you run into an issue where you’re potentially endangering pitcher’s health, and thus the PA will never (and should never) go for it.

Dave Cameron: You can’t have pitchers blowing out their arms because they weren’t allowed to be removed.

Dave: The first game you attend this season will be _____

Dave Cameron: Probably a Nationals game at the end of April. I’m tentatively in for the Pitch Talks events in KC on April 27th and DC on May 1st, and I’ll likely take in a Nats game in between those.

DTH: Over/Under: 2.5 Top 20 prospects traded between now and August 1st

Dave Cameron: Under.

Dave Cameron: Teams hate moving guys like that.

TKDC: Do teams control what they do in Spring Training? Could a team just decide that playing games is mostly stupid and reduce its schedule to maybe 7 games or so?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Spring Training is a cash cow for the cities that host the Cactus/Grapefruit Leagues, and the teams don’t get to just opt out of that.

Pinstripe Wizard: Do you think the Yankees will be somewhat forced to trade Betances after Levine’s comments? I can’t imagine that he’s not going to be a little bit sour all year long which could have a negative effect on the entire clubhouse.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t think they’ll be forced to, but if they’re sellers at the deadline, he’s their most obvious trade chip.

JWR: True or false: if you are a ML outfielder and are really fast, you are probably a good defensive OF?

Dave Cameron: It’s not a guarantee, but most fast OFs are good defensively. Most.

Colin: Is wRC+ position adjusted? Basically, is 100 average for the league, or for the league at a players given position?

Dave Cameron: It’s position agnostic.

DTH: which of the presumptive 2017 free agent SP’s has the best walk year: Arrieta, Cueto, Tanaka, Darvish? And which would you be most likely to give a 200 million dollar contract to after the season?

Dave Cameron: Of that group, probably Darvish to both answers.

Roy: Which young player is the most likely to become the face of MLB — in other words, a player recognizable even to non-baseball fans a la Jeter?

Dave Cameron: Kris Bryant. Good looking superstar on an historic franchise bringing them back to winning ways.

Von Schloss: What does it take for MLB to declare Capps’s delivery as illegal and keep him from doing it? Seems like that should have been a no-brainer.

Dave Cameron: I would imagine if it starts to catch on, and it’s not just one guy, they’ll be forced to deal with it.

Dave Cameron: Right now, it’s easier to just be like “well, whatever, he’ll get hurt anyway.”

BC : I have another pace of play idea. Instead of allowing managers to call replay/review booths for advice on a call, you give them only 20 secs to determine whether they want to challenge or not. Managers have to use their judgement; tens of minutes of games aren’t wasted. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: I’d just junk the whole challenge system. Have a replay ump who makes those calls.

v2micca: It seems like the SOP for developing a starting pitcher is to give him a changeup to deal with opposite handed hitters. But, it seems like a cutter would be ever bit as effective and I rarely hear about it being taught to prospects.

Dave Cameron: Cutters can be effective against opposite handed hitters, but some guys who just throw “baby sliders” instead, and those get crushed if they’re not located well. And there’s still some thought within the game that cutters mess with your breaking ball.

Andrew: Hey Dave, thanks for the chat. Any chance of you and Sullivan and whoever else doing a PNW meetup this summer?

Dave Cameron: Yup! We’ll both be at the Pitch Talks show in Seattle on June 5th, and at the EclipseFest game in Salem-Keiser on August 21st.

Jack: McCullough over/under WHIP of 1.3

Dave Cameron: Andy? Over.

Greg: You mentioned the Braves thinking the rebuild is almost over and keeping core pieces. Do you agree or disagree?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how many of their lottery ticket pitchers pan out. Right now, they’re still pretty far away.

Dylan: Would the Weiters deal have topped your 10 Worst Transactions article?

Dave Cameron: Topped? No. It was like the Gallardo/Smith deal, in that it was kind of a pointless move, but it didn’t actively make the team worse.

Phantastic: how do you deal with a delivery like Capps’? Defining exactly what is illegal about it and understanding how to enforce it is going to be tricky

Dave Cameron: “You can’t hop when you throw.”

Dave Cameron: That wasn’t hard.

Erik: According to Eric’s report, JP Crawford is only a 50 runner but is no doubt to stick at short. Is that as rare as it sounds, or are there other current shortstops who are very good defenders with average at best speed?

Dave Cameron: Andrelton Simmons comes to mind.

seth r: who is the worst defensive ‘fast’ outfielder?

Dave Cameron: Rajai Davis, maybe?

A. Reitz: Thoughts on Patrick Corbin? Feels like a bounce back guy to me but I’m seeing little talk.

Dave Cameron: Has to figure out how to get righties out.

Hunky Dory: Don’t cutters break glove side? And sinkers break arm side? So wouldn’t a sinker be the pitch for an oppo batter?

Dave Cameron: Sinkers/two-seamers break into opposite handed hitters bats. That’s bad.

JWR: Who is the best “slow” outfielder?

Dave Cameron: Heyward isn’t really all that fast. Alex Gordon?

Paul: I haven’t seen an answer to this yet, but will pitchers still be able to start with the “unintentional” intentional walk, get to 2-0, and then just signal to put him on? Or must it be determined before a pitch is thrown?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure you’ll be able to signal at any point.

A. Reitz: Am I crazy for thinking E. Thames projections are so far off that he’s a part timer by mid season and losing at bats to Travis Shaw and Hernan Perez?

Dave Cameron: What incentive would MIL have to pull the plug that quickly?

Dronefinger: Did MLBPA Union Cheif Tony Clark mess up this new collective bargaining agreement by letting the commissioner and owners make unilateral rule changes going forward in 2018? How big of an oversight was it? Should MLBPA find a new union chief?

Dave Cameron: That clause was already in the old CBA.

Von Schloss: Just got a Golden Doodle puppy, good choice or great choice?

Dave Cameron: Hope you enjoy razors on your hands for the next few months!

Dave Cameron: (But once the puppy teeth fall out, great choice.)

Kevin: Best offensive/speed potential, long term : Buxton or Moncada?

Dave Cameron: Probably Buxton. Moncada is fast, but Buxton is faster.

Dronefinger: Why is Manfred so insistent on pace of play and speeding up the game? If it is because he is trying to draw in the casual fan won’t he be alienating the real fans with his rule changes?

Dave Cameron: Because the game is trending towards slower/longer, and if unchecked, those trends are really bad for baseball.

Dronefinger: If Colorado built a new stadium would/should it be domed?

Dave Cameron: I think it’s good for baseball to have some weird parks. I don’t know if it’s good for the Rockies, though.

Guest: IF, god forbid, the blue jays are out of contention at the deadline, what type of return could they get for Estrada, Bautista, and those kinda guys? Maybe even Donaldson?

Dave Cameron: Well if they’re not in it in July, Estrada and Bautista are probably not playing very well.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to finish a piece about why Eric Hosmer is historically unique.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.