Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/15

Dave Cameron: After missing last week — my flight to PHX had lousy wifi — I’m back for our normal Wednesday chat. Let’s talk some baseball.

Dave Cameron: Queue is now open.

Comment From Tony G.
Is Austin Jackson being underrated going into this season? Nobody seems to be talking about him, and now that he’s had the offseason to get acclimated to the different time zone playing in Seattle, I feel like he could have a very good season. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Players generally don’t live in the city of the team they play for in the off-season. I would be surprised if Jackson had spent more than a few days in Seattle this winter.

Dave Cameron: He could have a good year because he has a nice base of skills. Having an off-season to transition time zones has nothing to do with it.

Comment From Mike
Who do you think ends up as Toronto’s #4 and #5 starters?

Dave Cameron: Norris and Estrada. Sanchez is a reliever.

Comment From DC
What are some of your take-aways from Arizona?

Dave Cameron: Having nine infielders cover a field while playing whiffle ball is probably too many.

Comment From Phillies113
So…Jonathan Judge’s cFIP stat. It’s cool, right?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Definitely worth checking out the article if you haven’t already: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

Comment From John
Did you see the Hardball Times article about cFIP? What were your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: The concept is really interesting. There’s always a natural tension between metrics that try to both describe past events and predict future events, and so we’ve ended up with a lot of speciality metrics that try to do one or the other. Having a metric that sustainably succeeds at both would be a real step forward.

Comment From Vslyke
Would a Oliveria signing (say 4/40) be as baffling for the Braves as the Markakis signing? More so?

Dave Cameron: Less so. There’s more upside with Olivera than with Markakis.

Dave Cameron: Rebuilding teams should be taking risks with potential payoffs.

Comment From Al
Is there a box score or any type of scouting report for the fangraphs whiffle ball game. Specifically, who hit taters?

Dave Cameron: Dan Farnsworth crushed every ball he hit, but ended up making a lot of loud outs as we positioned Eric Longenhagen perfectly to take advantage of Farnsworth’s pull tendencies.

Dave Cameron: But it was pretty obvious which guy spends a lot of time in the batting cage and which ones don’t.

Comment From Matt
Hey Dave. Big fan of all your stuff. Quick question about the Dodgers. In one of the podcasts, you mentioned that the Dodgers had a great offseason because all of the money they spent (mainly to pay down overpaid players in order to move them), they spent efficiently. However, in a previous chat, you mentioned that it wouldn’t make sense for the Dodgers to pay down Ethier in order to move him. I guess my question is, when does it make sense to pay down players and when does it not make sense?

Dave Cameron: My Ethier comment was about paying almost his entire salary to get rid of him. If they could get some other team to pick up a significant amount of his salary (as they did with Kemp) then dumping him would be an easy call.

Comment From Jimothy
There’s got to be a fit between Toronto and Arizona, given the former’s ownership of Dioner Navarro (and assorted prospects) and the latter’s surplus of OF, SP and RP depth, right?

Dave Cameron: Arizona has SP depth? Their rotation might be the worst in baseball. I could maybe see a Dioner Navarro for Cody Ross deal making sense if AZ equalized the money, but Ross might not really be much better than Viciedo at this point.

Comment From Sean
Do you expect Wil Myers’ 2015 to be closer to 2013 or 2014?

Dave Cameron: In between.

Comment From Eminor3rd
With Sale’s short term injury and Rodon’s strong spring and subsequent agent-driven lobbying about his MLB readiness, might we see the first major service-time suppression case get to the league?

Dave Cameron: Highly doubtful. It’s basically impossible to prove that the team wasn’t making a legitimate player development decision, especially with a guy with so ilttle MILB time.

Comment From Pale Hose
Sullivan and Kiley get all the love, but we should have a Petriello appreciation day.

Dave Cameron: Agreed.

Comment From Rob
Assuming Wil Myers does not work out in CF, would it make sense to try him at 1B and play Maybin in CF?

Dave Cameron: If you’re going to move an OF to 1B, it should be Kemp.

Comment From Guest
Why did the Dodgers trade Heaney for Kendrick? For 2015 it makes some sense but certainly not a smart trade for the Dodgers long term. Heaney and Urias would have been 2 young pitching studs for a long time with the Dodgers.

Dave Cameron: Heaney isn’t a stud, and Howie Kendrick is very good.

Comment From John Farrell
Are we now thinking that Mookie has the inside track on the starting CF job in Boston? What do you see them doing with Rusney if that’s the case?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it seems like Mookie’s probably in line to start the year in CF at this point; I’d imagine Rusney will start the year on the DL and get a nice long rehab stint at Triple-A while they wait for the situation to sort itself out.

Comment From 20longyears
When people discuss pitching prospects, is there too much emphasis on velocity? Results without regard to context? I’m thinking of the excellent Tim Williams piece on Jameson Taillon’s development. http://www.piratesprospects…

Dave Cameron: Velocity matters, but it’s overrated.

Comment From Larry Bernandez
With all the pitcher injuries, do you think teams are going to be changing the way they use pitchers in the future, such as using a tandem instead?

Dave Cameron: Before we start implementing solutions, we have to figure out the cause first.

Comment From Chris
Amaro made a comment on if there’s a lesson to be learned about not trading Lee before a potential injury and he said: “There’s no lesson … because it’s a totally different situation. One guy is hurt. The other is completely healthy.”

Dave Cameron: Ruben Amaro shouldn’t be running a baseball team. This isn’t news.

Comment From dom
if the Cubs miss the playoffs by a game or two they should be criticized for holding Bryant back a couple weeks. Atlanta needed every last win to get Wild Card in 2010 and started the year with Heyward right out of camp because he was their best option. Fix service time rules!!!1!11!!

Dave Cameron: No player in baseball is worth a “win or two” over the course of two weeks.

Dave Cameron: I’m all for fixing the service time rules, but until the league and MLBPA agree on how to do that, holding Bryant down makes sense.

Comment From Josh in DC
Do the Nationals need to trade for another outfielder, or do they have so much breathing room in the division that no problem is especially urgent, especially this one?

Dave Cameron: If Taylor is an elite glove in CF as rumored, then his bat should be okay enough for them to get by. That said, I’d think calling Arizona about Ender Inciarte is probably not a bad idea.

Comment From Mike
Is the fact that the Soler-Baez-Bryant trio went back-to-back-to-back off of Bauer in a spring training start indicative of anything at all?

Dave Cameron: All three have power. Bauer pitches up in the zone. The ball flies in Arizona.

Dave Cameron: Beyond that, no.

Comment From Ike
If the White Sox fail to contend at the deadline approaches in July, do they trade Samardzija to the highest bidder?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess they’ll try to sign him long term.

Comment From Jeff
What are the odds Steven Strasburg is pitching for Toronto this spring?

Dave Cameron: Zero.

Comment From J. Peterman
How much rotation depth is “enough”? In other words, at what point is it smart to trade a decent starter for a position with less depth? It seems like anytime a question like this is asked, the response is something to the effect of “you can’t have too much pitching.”

Dave Cameron: You can have too much pitching if the guys who are not going to make the rotation are going to be a problem about it. You can’t really stash a 10 year veteran #3 starter in the bullpen and expect him not to throw a stink.

Dave Cameron: So your depth almost has to be younger guys who have options and not enough influence to make a scene.

Comment From Rubiks Pube
Do you think Miller and Betances going to split closing duties or do you think one or another will become the clear cut closer by then end of ST?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine Betances will become the capital-c Closer if he pitches well.

Comment From mtsw
Whiffle ball isn’t about power, it’s about softly hitting the ball towards the opponent’s least competent infielder

Dave Cameron: When the entire field is blanketed by defenders, everyone is at least semi competent.

Comment From Warrior
Dave, is the concept of Spring Training too steeped in tradition and profitability to be seriously examined by MLB? It seems to me teams could ease the grind of the long seasons on players by having them start workouts in mid-march, rather than mid-february. most players stay in shape year round now anyway

Dave Cameron: I haven’t talked with one single player who thinks they’re ready to go in just a few weeks. Everyone agrees that it takes a while to ramp up.

Dave Cameron: It’s not about getting in shape. It’s about timing.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Legit wiffleball? With the holes on one side and the skinny yellow bat? Who threw the filthiest pitches? I love throwing risers with a wiffleball.

Dave Cameron: David Laurila was surprisingly nasty until his 9th inning HBP meltdown.

Dave Cameron: We finally got to him by just going full Craig Biggio on him.

Comment From mtsw
The Orioles are rumored to be interested in Ryan Howard. Assuming he’s almost free (PHI eats >75% of his remaining dollars and he doesn’t return any prospects) does a Howard/Delmon Young platoon make sense for the O’s at DH?

Dave Cameron: Unless Philly is eating 100% of the money, I have zero interest. I’m not even sure he’s rosterable at this point, even if free.

Comment From dom
Of all the reasons against the Kemp acquisition, the argument about his power being dampened by their ballpark is the worst. Are they supposed to build a team entirely of Ichiro’s?

Dave Cameron: It worked for the Royals.

Comment From zurzles
Could there be a future where player stat pages offer different multiple WAR calculations? I’d love it if there were a tab on pitcher pages where I could see a spread of WAR calculations based on cFIP, xFIP, SIERA, etc

Dave Cameron: We’ve talked about having a build-your-own-WAR tool, where you basically could pick the inputs you want, but there’s a legitimate pushback that there are already too many versions of WAR, and it would muddy the waters by introducing unlimited new versions.

Comment From Bret
How does the AL East look to you now? To my eyes, Boston is the clear favorite, with the other four teams all looking pretty equal, .500-calibre teams.

Dave Cameron: Sounds about right to me.

Comment From Catoblepas
There were some comments made by the MLBPA on the likelihood of the DH coming to the NL. Do you see that as possible in the next CBA? Which side gains from it, and which side would try to use it to bragain?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I could see it coming sooner than later. More offense in the game, more jobs for one dimensional players, fewer predictable and uninteresting bunts by pitchers.

Comment From Also Dave
By using BaseRuns instead of WAR for team projections does that mean that if a team over- or underperforms their projection, we can’t blame it on WAR not knowing how to value a player? All we’re left with is timing of events and random happenstance?

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns isn’t a projection; it’s a win estimator based on the value of the events that occurred. The difference between a team’s record and it’s BaseRuns record is sequencing.

Comment From dom
A player can’t accumulate a Win or two Above Replacement in 2 weeks but they certainly can make a difference in the outcome of a game or two…

Dave Cameron: You need to look at marginal difference, not “this guy hit a HR and we won by one so he won us the game”

Comment From The Average+Sports+Fan
Is seems like all reviews on Tomas are terrible. Should Dbacks be concerned?

Dave Cameron: While I’m not exactly a huge fan, I think Tomas is the kind of player where the average fan is going to judge him far too harshly off initial observations. He’s fat and doesn’t look like an athlete, but that doesn’t mean he can’t play baseball.

Comment From Investor
Mr. Cameron, Financial Planner. Is a 529 Plan the best way to save for my daughter’s college?

Dave Cameron: I’m generally of the opinion that it’s better to save for your own retirement — which no one will lend you money to finance — then to allocate 401k or IRA dollars to a 529. If you just have so much money that you’ve maxed out your tax-advantaged accounts and have nowhere else to stick all your cash, then sure, start a 529. If you’re not maxing out your retirement accounts, though, save for yourself first.

Comment From adam
at what point does the traditional closer position cease to exist and teams move to a more matchup based platoon? Seems like it was save money.

Dave Cameron: And that’s why players won’t go for it. The league will have to go come up with a new way to pay relievers before they will buy in.

Comment From Mike P.
Any chance Amaro said what he said so he doesn’t come off as a “I’m selling Cole to whoever makes the next call at whatever offer”. Not saying he’s the smartest guy around, but the fact that people take FO’s public statements seriously always makes me chuckle a bit.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, what they say to the media doesn’t matter that much.

Comment From adam
is the arizona fangraphs house as fun as it sounds?

Dave Cameron: We had a great time.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
I’m still puzzled by how little Shields got this offseason. Should the Red Sox have foregone the Panda signing, and signed Shields instead? It’s the same amount of money, and let Hanley play 3rd base. Currently, 2 of Castillo, Betts, Victorino, and Craig have to sit the bench. Meanwhile, Clay Bucholtz and Justin Masterson are their “aces”.

Dave Cameron: The marginal difference between Shields and Masterson isn’t as high as you might think.

Comment From Randy
How is Boston the clear favorite with a starting rotation full of question marks?

Dave Cameron: That division is full of question marks, and there’s more to the game than starting pitching.

Comment From Shawn
How much are park factors influenced by the quality of the hitters of the home team? For instance does a good lineup one year and a bad lineup the next, have a significant impact on the year to year factor?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Park factors are based on the differences between performances from players at home versus on the road, so if you have a good offense that hits equally well in both places (and your pitching staff also had a neutral split), the park factor would come out neutral for that year. And they’re based on multiple years of data.

Comment From Guest
What is the long term (5 years or so) possibility of having a true talent stat that uses cFIP style info combined with batted ball data and possibly some other stuff?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what Statcast data becomes public. If we’re given things like speed and angle off the bat, hang time, distance traveled, we might be able to overhaul all our pitching stats and come up with much better ones.

Comment From Ryan
If Kluber doesn’t sign an extension before the season starts does it make sense for the Indians to just go year to year and let him walk as a FA? Do they still work towards an extension before the season starts despite signing him to his contract today?

Dave Cameron: He seems like exactly the kind of guy that you probably want to go year to year with unless he gives you a big discount. Already on the older side, won’t hit FA until his early-30s, so they already control his best years.

Comment From Curtis
Rate your at-bats in the wiffle ball game…

Dave Cameron: I got HBP’d three times and walked once, so I was basically Kevin Youkilis.

Comment From greg
So is the new FG Starting (chat) Rotation for the forseeable future: 1) Szymborski 2) McDaniel 3) Cameron 4) Sarris 5) Sullivan

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we flipped Kiley and Jeff’s days because Kiley is often busy scouting college games on Fridays.

Comment From Curtis
Who is the biggest eye test failure when it comes to defense – what we see isn’t anywhere near what the stats show? I think (young) Yuniesky Betancourt …. older Jeter?

Dave Cameron: Jhonny Peralta.

Comment From Guest
Did you like having the FG House better than hotel rooms at spring training? Any downside besides the smell of dude and stale beer in the morning?

Dave Cameron: It was great to have a kitchen so we didn’t have to go out to eat every meal. The primary downside was the person/bathroom ratio, which is 2:1 in a hotel but was ~6:1 in the house.

Comment From A cat
I’ve had several financial people mention whole term life insurance as a good college savings tool

Dave Cameron: I’m guessing they were whole life insurance salesman? Whole life plans generally suck.

Comment From Jompo Chief Osoyunti
So what’s the early verdict on who requires more hands-on care: a baby dog or a baby human?

Dave Cameron: Baby human, easily. Can’t just put him in a cage and leave.

Comment From Guest
Will we get a Sporer chat anytime soon?

Dave Cameron: Coming very soon.

Comment From Makes me wanna Schoop
Hi. Curious how you see the PAs breaking down between Schoop and Cabrerra in Baltimore. A true clash of the titans!

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Cabrera wins the job.

Comment From MyNameIs
Hamels for Sanchez, Osuna, and PTBNL with Philly covering half of Hamels salary, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Phillies are apparently not interested in eating any money, which is silly.

Dave Cameron: But if they would eat half the contract, they could do better than that.

Comment From Mike
What are your expectations from Matt Carpenter this year

Dave Cameron: Lots of contact and walks, very little power. .340ish wOBA.

Comment From Guest
was Eno the most intoxicated at the Fg house?

Dave Cameron: One of the least, actually; he was under the weather and didn’t drink that much.

Comment From mtsw
Do players get jury duty? How come we never hear of guys missing games to sit on a jury?

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure they would just get excused for work reasons.

Comment From Guest
If you are dividing up 100%, How much of baseball is Physical,Neurological,Mental, and Effort? It seems like you need a bit of everything, but as your mentioned with Tomas, being in shape is a factor, but it isn’t everything.

Dave Cameron: Completely wild guess with no data to back up my claims: 40% physical, 30% effort, 30% neurological/mental because I don’t know how to split those two.

Comment From Bob
Chances Justin Masterson gets over 50 million next offseason?

Dave Cameron: Probably decent. He just has to have a league average season and then he can comp himself to the Nolasco/Jackson/Santana types.

Comment From Who_Is_Zorbist
Why would MLB allow Philly to cover any of Hamel’s salary? It’s not an albatross. Wouldn’t that essentially be buying prospects?

Dave Cameron: There’s no rule that says you can only pay down contracts for players that aren’t worth their salary.

Comment From Padres Jagoff
Dave, is Stamey’s in Greensboro or Little Richard’s in Winston putting out the best local barbeque, and why is it Stamey’s?

Dave Cameron: I’ve never eaten at Stamey’s, actually.

Comment From Guest
Jhonny Peralta eye test doesn’t differ much from his defensive stats. He was excellent last year by both. The problem is people who stereotype his body type without watching him play.

Dave Cameron: For many fans, the eye test is just a combination of judging body type and repeating what the announcers tell them.

Comment From Job
You’ve been a big pusher of low-cost index funds, but historically active management funds, even after the higher expense ratio, have beaten passive funds in the long run. Of course it comes down to your own personal feelings if someone can beat the market, but there’s nothing wrong with investor class mutual funds.

Dave Cameron: If you have enough actively managed funds out there, of course some of them are going to beat the market over a long period of time simply by random chance. 10,000 monkeys with 10,000 typewriters and all that. The only real question is whether those funds can be identified ahead of time. I have seen no compelling evidence that they can be.

Comment From Sir Nerdlington
With offense down, do you see advantages to the composition of the Astros/Cubs high volatility offenses? Easier to run into a couple home runs than string three hits in five batters together a few times?

Dave Cameron: Power is worth more in lower run scoring environments, but the marginal differences are small enough that you shouldn’t build teams around it.

Comment From Vslyke
Thanks for the answer earlier. If Alex Guerrero does end up getting cut or traded, do you see the Braves as a player? Seems to fit the same profile as Olivera but with less risk.

Dave Cameron: Also very little upside, because if he’s traded, he can opt out of his contract next winter. So if he’s good, you get one year and he’s gone, but if he’s bad, you’re stuck with him.

Comment From Rubiks Pube
Do you think Carlos Martinez solves lefties this year or are we going to continue to see unholy platoon splits from him?

Dave Cameron: I’m not a believer in him as a starter. I think he’s Octavio Dotel.

Comment From Nate
Follow up question on the 40/30/30 player makeup split. Who’s your example elite player for each of those categories? Physical, Effort, Mental?

Dave Cameron: Physical: Aroldis Chapman

Dave Cameron: Effort: Roy Halladay

Dave Cameron: Mental: Mark Buehrle

Comment From ar
should i just be getting 10-yr term life insurance? or is any term/premium structure actuarially the same?

Dave Cameron: Life insurance is essentially a matter of risk preference. If you’re extremely risk averse, get a longer term with a higher premium. If you like risk and want to bet on yourself, save the cash and get a shorter term. There’s no one size fits all for everyone.

Comment From Sir Nerdlington
Seems like there is a ton of issues at the table for the next CBA. Is this more than is typical? I’m assuming prelim negotiations are already underway. When do we start hearing of stances/issues?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is going to be a big one, I think. At Sloan, Manfred said one of the main changes over the years is how much the league and the MLBPA communicate, and you’d have to think they’re already talking about some of the issues that are going to come up. But how they’re going to handle the huge influx of cash into the game could be a real problem.

Comment From Guest
who plays 3rd if Tomas doesnt ? O’Brien?

Dave Cameron: Jake Lamb.

Comment From I Trout
For the guy looking for 529 advice, run away from the whole life salesman. If you want to go the insurance route when saving for college, a cash building IUL would make much more sense. A great 529 alternative is Roth IRAs, make sure you’re max-funding any 401(k)s first, and then contribute the rest to Roths (only $5,500 or $6,500 if you’re over 50). That way, if your child doesn’t go to college, you’re not stuck with a 529 plan and you have a nice tax free pile of cash when you retire 🙂

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if you don’t need your IRA to build up your own retirement and can afford to use it as a potential college fund, that’s a better option than a 529. Some people need both their 401k and their IRA to get enough saved, though, especially those who started later.

Comment From Julian
Why does it seem like teams don’t care a whole lot about players being fat? It seems like with more emphasis on nutrition, especially coming up through the Minors, players could be a lot thinner, faster, quicker. What’s the downside in that?

Dave Cameron: Fat players are often power hitters, and the trade-off because losing weight/losing power might not be worth it.

Comment From seattlecougar
Any chance we’ll get a Cistulli chat sometime? Would be entertaining to see the strange directions that could wander off in.

Dave Cameron: He’d probably take 45 minutes to answer each question, and do so in haiku.

Dave Cameron: (He normally hosts an Opening Day game chat during our live blog extravaganzas. That’s maybe as close as you’ll get.)

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to get some lunch. See you guys next week.