Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/25/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, and Kris Bryant hasn’t yet homered today. Let’s chat before he hits one of us with a baseball.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Would the Reds have been wise to trade Cueto this offseason or did the 2nd WC change their thinking? It seems to me the Reds have one of wider ranges for win-loss records this season. They could lose 95 games or win 88.

Dave Cameron: I think they should have more aggressively picked a side; they need a lot to go right to contend this year, but they also gave up a prospect for Marlon Byrd. It was a weird winter.

Dave Cameron: That said, Cueto will have a lot of value at the trade deadline.

Comment From Vslyke
Do you see the Braves trading Kimbrel at the deadline? And if so, who gets the higher return, Chapman or Kimbrel?

Dave Cameron: If they’re as bad as we project them to be, I think they’ll at least listen to offers. Chapman would bring back more.

Comment From Jordan
Carlos Martinez is the cardinals 5th starter, true or false?

Dave Cameron: False. He’ll go back to being a setup guy, where he belongs.

Comment From xavier
Can Brandon Phillips be league-average, even in his decline phase?

Dave Cameron: Sure. He was basically that last year.

Comment From JWA
Is Lucas Giolito the Kris Bryant of pitching prospects?

Dave Cameron: Not even close.

Comment From Pale Hose
Do you see McCutchen as the present day Tim Raines? I am thinking in the sense of a great player being overlooked because of greatest player. Why isn’t there room for more than one great?

Dave Cameron: Well, he does have an MVP award. I think he’s more of a playing-in-Pittsburgh thing. If he was in a bigger market, he’d be more famous.

Comment From Pennsy
Scale of 1-10, how concerned about Anthony Rendon should I be?

Dave Cameron: I’d say a 7. Long history of leg problems make this more concerning for him than others.

Comment From Guest
Is the limit on commenting for only registered users (which is free) going to be the position into the foreseeable future or is this a test period?

Dave Cameron: A test for now, but may be permanent. You probably have noticed that the trolling had gotten out of control.

Comment From working….
What young outfielder would you want as part of your core? Springer, Pederson, Betts?

Dave Cameron: Betts

Comment From Guest
How much outcry would there be if the Cubs kept Bryant in the minors long enough to make him miss the super-2 cutoff?

Dave Cameron: That would be silly.

Comment From Jason
Realistic expectations for George Springer? Does he become a genuine star this year?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he ever becomes a star. Solid but flawed player.

Comment From Nick
Do you agree with Brandon Phillips that placing value in on-base percentage is “messing up baseball?” Just kidding. What a nonsensical rant, though.

Dave Cameron: It isn’t nonsensical. He grew up being told/coached how to play the game a certain way, and has had a remarkable amount of personal success while subscribing to his philosophies. He’s been paid extraordinarily well, and the media is constantly reinforcing his own beliefs. It would take a very strong willed person to think that he’s actually had it all wrong this whole time.

Dave Cameron: That doesn’t make Phillips correct, of course, but it’s perfectly understandable why he believes what he does.

Comment From dom
At the time, the Astros were applauded for their unprecedented contract to Jonathan Singleton, who had zero service time. What are the chances that they regret guaranteeing him millions?

Dave Cameron: Their worst case scenario is they end up wasting like $7 or $8 million. Zero chance of regret because the cost was so low. You do deals like this knowing some of them won’t work but you’ll come out ahead in the aggregate.

Comment From dom
Is there a reason Steven Souza was/is relatively underhyped, with those great numbers? Is it his age?

Dave Cameron: Late bloomer, PED suspension.

Comment From Kris
I’m not saying Kris Bryant is going to turn into Pedro Alvarez, but doesn’t it concern anyone that he has put up Alvarezian strikeout percentages in the minors? This seems to get brushed to the side by a lot of folks but I think there is a real chance Bryant will be a good player, rather than an elite player.

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll be better than Alvarez, but I do agree he’s more of a high floor top prospect than a super high ceiling. I don’t see him putting up too many +6 WAR seasons, but I’d expect a lot of +3 to +5 years.

Comment From John
Everyone is touting the Dodgers front office for getting Olivera. But at 60+ mil, thats not a lot of surpluss value, for a guy who hasnt really played in 2 years, is injured, and doens’t necessarily profile to be any better than guerrero who cant even crack the dodgers line up. Just because you have money doesnt mean you should spend it. Am i missing something?

Dave Cameron: Everyone is touting that? I saw a lot of skepticism yesterday. I am skeptical as well.

Comment From Guest
What is the best solution to the service time and super-2 issues in your opinion? What is a solution that the owners and the union would both agree to?

Dave Cameron: Codify the seventh year of team control in exchange for making a service year a very small number of days.

Dave Cameron: And then the union gets something in exchange.

Comment From Catoblepas
Hi Dave! I know Jeff usually is the Community Blog czar, but I thought he said someone was going to be managing it while he was gone. Any reason it hasn’t updated in days?

Dave Cameron: Sorry about that; this is on me dropping the ball. I’ll try to get to that tonight.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
If the Cubs came to Bryant today and offered him a 10 year $125m deal, would he overrule Mr. Boras and accept it?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He got a huge signing bonus as a draftee, so he doesn’t need to sell his upside short.

Comment From anonymous
Recent change to the site that is awesome and long overdue: requiring a log in to comment. Alternately, the ads seem to have gotten a lot worse — I’ve had to hard quit my browser every time I look at the positional power rankings, which sucks.

Dave Cameron: We are working on that too. If you see a lot of redirect ads when browsing on Mobile, please let us know. We are trying to fix it, even though we’re not the ones doing it.

Comment From John
Where do you think the Rays will finish in ALE this year? PECOTA is awfully high on them with 87 wins, no?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that seems overly optimistic. I’d guess 80-84 and a third place finish.

Comment From Bill
Assuming Greinke has another good year and then opts out, what kind of contract do you think he’ll be looking at? Will Freidman give it to him?

Dave Cameron: He’ll ask for a Lester type deal, and probably get it. Won’t be from LAD, I wouldn’t think.

Comment From Nick
Do you think that Dave Stewart’s comment about Mark Trumbo not being up for trade is just a smoke-screen of sorts? Maybe in hopes of getting a team to over-trade, if you will? I do not think there are very many players in baseball that are good enough for a GM to not even be interested in ANY offers regarding them.

Dave Cameron: I think Stewart is honest to a fault. I don’t think they want to trade Trumbo.

Comment From Vslyke
Thanks for the answer. Why would Kimbrel bring back less – is his contract so long that the extra years decrease his value?

Dave Cameron: He also doesn’t throw 102.

Comment From Gregory
In the library, it says that Win Expectancy considers run environment. Does that mean that it more heavily weighs data from eras with similar Runs/game figures, or what?

Dave Cameron: It means that if you’re down five runs in Colorado, you will have a better chance of coming back than if you’re down five runs in San Diego.

Comment From Job
Can you explain Justin Smoak to me? He’s been an awful player, but I’m trying to look at all the parts as to why. Not a lot of strikeouts, decent walk rate, plate discp profile is like average across the board, below league average or so LD/GB. A lot of FB leading to a low BABIP? He doesn’t seem to have any one trait that is a glaring doom other than the FB/BABIP. No real platoon split.

Dave Cameron: He’s just not strong enough to hit for enough power to make up for the fact that he strikes out too much for a first baseman without power.

Dave Cameron: You can be a gap power 1B if you make contact, or you can be a strikeout 1B if you hit homers. Smoak doesn’t do either.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Percentage that Baez “busts” and is replacement-level at his peak: 60%

Dave Cameron: Maybe even higher. But on the 1-in-3 chance that he figures it out, he’s really good.

Comment From Guest
If Boras isn’t Bryant’s agent, do you think he’d be on the Opening Day roster because an extension would be far more likely?

Dave Cameron: No. That extra year is valuable no matter who the agent is.

Comment From Catoblepas
How do you deal with criticism of your writing? I assume you know that you have a somewhat polarizing style, but do you actively avoid critiques from sources you aren’t personally close to? (Ignore the critiques of your UK Conservative party leadership)

Dave Cameron: I do my best to ignore the personal attack type of critiques. If someone is attempting to offer legitimate genuine feedback because they’re either trying to help or because they want to have a conversation about what their problem with what I said was, I try to listen as well as I can. Most criticism doesn’t fall into that category, unfortunately.

Comment From Jersey
As an O’s fan, I am basically resigned to them dumping Matusz for a C-grade prospect, then watching him pull an Arrieta for the other team. I’m being overly pessimistic, right? He probably won’t become a good starter, right?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see Matusz ever getting RHBs out, which keeps him in the bullpen.

Comment From Catoblepas
How are the Dodgers somehow without much SP depth? It’s weird for the team so rich (in almost every way) to not have capable 6th and 7th guys. Is it because it’s harder to buy potential starters who can be stashed in the minors (and are often young) than the standard free agent?

Dave Cameron: Joe Wieland is okay, and they’ll pick up someone like Erasmo Ramirez for nothing.

Comment From hack
Lets say the dodgers contacted the Nationals because of Ryu’s injury and they needed a starter for this year A) what starter that the Nats own would get Seager?

Dave Cameron: Strasburg. But it wouldn’t be a one for one, most likely.

Comment From Sean
While the Diamondbacks have seemed pretty foolish with regards to their position players, isn’t their method of acquiring several near-MLB pitching prospects a smart one? They may not have an ace from this bunch – that’s probably Bradley or Blair – but if one or two stick as 2/3 types, it’s a pretty big win.

Dave Cameron: I’d be more on board with the idea if I liked the guys they were stockpiling. I don’t.

Comment From Snarfle
How do you feel about the trend of extending players through arb years plus a couple more? On one hand, it feels like a win-win: player is set for life should things so south and team probably gets a discount. Still, it underscores how the 6 years of team control system depresses young player wages for no just reason.

Dave Cameron: It does it for one very simple reason; to redistribute money to veteran players. Unions reward service time in every business. Baseball’s union is no different.

Comment From mtsw
Does Scott Boras generate real value for his clients or is he mostly just a middleman who gets more-or-less what anyone who can correctly read the market could?

Dave Cameron: He gets most of his clients far more than anyone else would.

Comment From zwibi
To help people with the problem with ads. If you use google chrome. Go to the chrome store and download the addon adblock plus. Absolutely ZERO ads when looking at fangraphs.

Dave Cameron: Do you want us to go out of business? Because this is how you put us out of business. If you use an AdBlock program, you’re effectively making sure that we get no revenue from you in any way.

Comment From dom
I’ve never been to Seattle. Is the thick marine air that suppresses offense noticeable to a fan sitting in it? Like does it feel different than New York or Baltimore

Dave Cameron: In the summer, absolutely. You can actually go outside and not be miserable. It’s amazing. East coast summers are the worst.

Comment From Gregory
Does it also mean if you’re down 5 runs in colorado in 1995 you will have a better chance of coming back than if you’re down 5 runs in colorado in 2015?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Snarfle
How long until pitchers are wearing sensors that record all sorts of biometrics?

Dave Cameron: Lots of companies are trying to do sensor-free versions of this. It won’t be that long before someone figures out how to do it perfectly and teams have live biometric data being fed to them in real time.

Comment From Sean
What do you think will be more valuable with MLB statcast? Getting a true value for fielding contributions or getting a better understanding of batted ball data?

Dave Cameron: Fielding data.

Comment From dom
would you say field dimensions or atmospheric conditions have a greater impact on park factors?

Dave Cameron: Atmosphere, by a lot. Not a coincidence that all the parks on the west coast are pitcher friendly.

Comment From neal
speaking of upcoming contracts, how do you think johnny cueto will be valued? good results, but he has some injury history + questions about how much his performance is sustainable, especially if he changes teams

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll come in around $125M, assuming he has a good year. Injuries will keep him out of Lester territory.

Comment From Ajay
If you had to pick a pitcher that has yet to make his MLB debut to start a must win game for you right now, roughly how high is Urias on your list?

Dave Cameron: Very low.

Comment From mtsw
It’s often reported that mega-deals like the Scherzer contract are made “at the ownership level.” Were you an owner, what would be the threshold at which point deals would require your explicit approval?

Dave Cameron: I think, theoretically, I’d be pretty hands off. Easy to say when it’s not my money, though.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Think Boras’ posturing on Bryant may have the perverse effect of keeping Bryant down longer? My concern – if the Cubs now believe a grievance is a real possibility perhaps they don’t pull him up in the vicinity of game 9, and wait a few more weeks to support the baseball reasons for holding him back in a possible grievance hearing.

Dave Cameron: I’d say there’s a good chance they hold him down for an extra week or so in order to make it not so obvious.

Comment From Catoblepas
Teams already have a decent set of batted ball data, right? If I’ve learned anything from Tony Blengino articles, it’s that

Dave Cameron: Yes, HITF/x data has been in the team’s hands for a few years.

Comment From mapsamountainrange
RE Ads: The only issue Fangraphs has with ads is on mobile. There are ads with no user interaction that redirect to the app store to candy-crush type games. These are very unfriendly to mobile users.

Dave Cameron: This is actually an Apple problem, not a FG problem. It happens with a ton of mobile sites, and there’s no clear fix, because we can’t identify who is doing it in order to stop them. We’d love to fix it. We hate it too.

Comment From Michael
How surprising is it that the Red Sox have, as far as we know, not tried to extend Rick Porcello?

Dave Cameron: Not surprising. He’s a Boras guy.

Comment From mtsw
It seems like sprawling sunbelt cities (e.g. Phoenix, Atlanta, Tampa) punch below their market-size when it comes to sports fandom in all major sports. Any good theories on why this would be?

Dave Cameron: Old people don’t like sports as much as young people.

Comment From Curioso
Who’s the first expensive signing Cuban that turns out to be a huge bust?

Dave Cameron: Tomas is the easy pick.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Is Tomas Dayan Viciedo?

Dave Cameron: This is the comp everyone wants to make, because of body type and the fact that he looks like garbage in ST. But it’s also a pretty lazy comp.

Dave Cameron: No reason to only compare Cubans to Cubans.

Comment From Guest
Weather/atmosphere effects example #1: Wrigley Field.

Dave Cameron: Coors is probably #1. One of the biggest parks, dimension wise. Doesn’t matter.

Comment From dom
Are you optimistic about Dozier repeating his 2014?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. I’m always wary of guys who are that extreme to the pull side.

Comment From Should Javier Baez start the season in the majors or AAA?
Couldn’t Aroldis Chapman double the value of his next contract simply by stating that he wants to be a starter? Wouldn’t several teams be willing to pay him over $100 million on the chance that he could become a Cuban Randy Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Last time the Reds tried him as an SP, he was throwing 91-93.

Dave Cameron: It’s possible, but I don’t think a team bets $100M until they see him do it.

Comment From dom
is there an infield position that is relatively marginalized by increased shifting? I feel like it’s easier to hide a poor second baseman now

Dave Cameron: I think this is probably true. Not a huge difference, but enough of one to lean slightly more towards a bat than a glove at 2B than it used to be.

Comment From Guest
If Viciedo is a lazy comp, how about Nelson Cruz as a bit more ceiling based comp for Tomas? Bad OF,Power,bad plate discipline.

Dave Cameron: That’s probably more what Arizona is hoping for.

Comment From Lee
What do the Red Sox do with Rusney Castillo? He looks like he’s already a much better option than Shane Victorino. But there’s only so many spots in that outfield. I just can’t see them sending Castillo to AAA simply because they have too many outfielders.

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a DL stint with some rehab time in AAA. Easier than optioning him.

Comment From Catoblepas
Do teams have a long-term incentive to see the StatCast data released to the public? It seems like Fangraphs and related sites have had a large role in a) advancing the methodology used by teams and b) identifying developing talents for those teams to eventually hire.

Dave Cameron: The teams would rather it stay internal for competitive advantage reasons. But everyone is better off as a whole if it gets released.

Comment From KB
The Milwaukee Brewers recently extended Ron Roenicke beyond 2015 and are said to be in talks with Doug Melvin to do the same… WHY?

Dave Cameron: So they don’t have to answer questions all year about their contracts. It’s basically protocol now to make sure a guy isn’t in his final year. It won’t have any effect on whether they get retained or not. Just think of it as extra severance pay.

Comment From Jerry Dipoto
What do you think of my performance with the Angels?

Dave Cameron: Mostly unimpressed.

Comment From daneytko
Mat Latos: over/under 3.50 ERA, why?

Dave Cameron: Over, because he doesn’t have enough else to succeed without his peak velo.

Comment From Larry Bernandez
I once saw a play years ago where a slow guy popped up a ball to 2nd base with a speedy runner on 1st. The 2nd baseman dropped the ball intentionally to force out the speedy runner. Why don’t more players do this?

Dave Cameron: The infield fly rule.

Comment From Scrapper
If the idea is to tweak the balance between hitting and pitching/defense, what would be a reasonable adjustment? How about lowering the mound a few inches?

Dave Cameron: Shrink the strike zone.

Comment From Catoblepas
What competitive advantage, if it’s internal to every team?

Dave Cameron: The data would be available to each team, but not each team’s analysis of that data. Every team thinks they can find an edge.

Comment From Guest
Are you surprised we don’t we more pitching extensions where a team will give a top pitching prospect something like $10-$20M once they join the rotation? I was looking at Cory Luebke the other day and I can only imagine how glad he is for getting a contract.

Dave Cameron: I think teams aren’t that incentivized to do those kinds of deals with lower tier arms.

Dave Cameron: They’ll do it with their best prospects, but not guys with lower perceived upsides.

Comment From Catoblepas
Hm. But can’t you keep your analysis private, even if the raw data is public? Or are you thinking of the analysis of the really raw data, the terabytes per game or whatever?

Dave Cameron: If the data is public, the sheer amount of smart hobbyists will find/publicize nearly everything a team could come up with themselves, just by sheer force of numbers. And once it’s public, every team can adopt it. Even if you think some other team might figure out the thing you figured out, then you only have to beat one other team for that advantage, not all other 29.

Comment From jvetter
Do you think the Dodgers were partially motivated to sign Hector Olivera to keep him away from San Diego?

Dave Cameron: That was probably part of it, yes.

Comment From Hi Dave can you summarize the next 3 years of Alex Wood supposing he stay healthy?
Alex Wood, any chances of CY votes in the next 3 years?

Dave Cameron: Sure. He’ll be good until his arm explodes.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Since you asked, I often listen to your podcast while working out, and it seems about 25% of the time i load the FanGraphs page it automatically launches the app store to a presumedly advertised app.

Dave Cameron: We made some changes last night that might fix this. If this persists, let us know.

Dave Cameron: The best we can do is try things, though. We’re not the ones selling/making those ads.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to go get some work done and then try to keep my son alive. Thanks for hanging out this week.