Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 4/5/17

Dave Cameron: Happy first Wednesday of the season, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Sorry for the late start. Cistulli is to blame, of course.

Dave Cameron: I’ll go a few minutes extra to make up for his distraction.

Stevie: How much do you think Bundy adding his cutter will help him this season?

Dave Cameron: I think command is probably the bigger issue. Having a cutter won’t change things dramatically unless he’s back to putting the ball where he wants it.

Victor: It’s august 2017, and the Red Sox are playing good baseball and leading the Al East. Their starting first basemen is (insert name here).

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess Matt Adams. He’s a Dombrowski kind of player.

Erik: Who will produce more career WAR: Byron Buxton or Manuel Margot?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take Buxton, but without a ton of certainty.

Philip: Who is a team you are way higher on than zips/steamers projections? And one you are lower on? I am liking Pittsburgh

Dave Cameron: In general, I don’t think the projections are that far off for any team that it’s wise to be “way higher” on any one team. I’m more optimistic about the Yankees than most, but part of that is that they have a huge ability to add in-season, and so it’s not that I’m disagreeing with the projections as much as I think their roster could change dramatically.

Erik: Why is Kyle Hendricks behind John Lackey in the Cubs’ rotation? Seniority? They don’t actually think he’s worse than Lackey, do they?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess workload.

Dave Cameron: And rotation spots don’t really matter.

James: Do you think Gallo sticks once Beltre returns?

Dave Cameron: Probably not.

Kyle: Michael Feliz a great reliever in saves+holds leagues? Can he be a poor mans Dellin Betances?

Dave Cameron: He’s like the fifth best reliever in that bullpen. So, no.

Dave Cameron: If he was somewhere else, maybe.

Jason: With more and more early extensions being signed by players, what are there ways the union can help reduce the amount of money left on the table?

Dave Cameron: We’re actually seeing a decline in early extensions relative to a few years ago, and by a lower tier of player. A couple of years ago, we had guys like Trout signing away their arb years; now it’s PIscotty and Odor.

Pretty Tony: Why do some organizations have consistently weak aspects of their team year-in and year-out? As a Tigers fan, the team has had a middling-to-bad bullpen for the last ten years. Is it organizational philosophy? Stubbornness? It seems like if you know where your team was weak the previous season, you should do something to address those weaknesses.

Dave Cameron: I think that’s part of what got Dombrowski fired; his velo-above-all-else pitching philosophy didn’t really help him identify good RPs.

Ned Yost: McCullers looked fantastic last night. 61 strikes out of 86 pitches. 3 of the 5 hits allowed were infield singles. 7 Ks to 2 BBs. Maybe you do know a little about baseball.

Dave Cameron: To be fair, you don’t have to know a lot to know that a guy with a mid-90s fastball and a plus curve has potential.

Seymour: Are there any other 25 and under trios that are in the majors now, that you’d take over Sanchez/Bird/Judge?

Dave Cameron: Bryant, Contreras, and Russell.

Dave Cameron: And probably Harper, Turner, and any random under-25 guy on the Nats.

Dave Cameron: Trout’s still 25, so him and two young Angels fans.

Colin: What does knowing a pitcher’s rpms on a given pitch tell us that a scouting report doesn’t?

Dave Cameron: High spin pitches get whiffs, low spin pitches get groundballs. They’re complementary. If you tell me a guy throws a 97 mph four-seamer, I want to know whether it’s a high-spin pitch or not, because if it’s a four-seamer that doesn’t miss bats, that’s not as attractive.

Tom: Did dbacks finally find a role Bradley can thrive at? Possible closer?

Dave Cameron: Why waste him at closer if he can be an effective multi-inning guy?

Dave Cameron: This is the perfect year for AZ to experiment a bit, and he’s a great option to try in that 2-3 inning role.

Grant: Since Dombrowski came to the Red Sox, 4 of the pitchers he’s acquired (Smith, Thornburg, Pommy, Price) have been injured. I know you have no inside knowledge here, but do you think this is a result of a blind spot in Dombrowski’s evaluation or just bad luck?

Dave Cameron: Bad luck, mostly. Can’t really blame him for Preller withholding information about Pomeranz.

Dave Cameron: Smith was a high injury risk, but the price reflected that.

JJP: Your thoughts on Otani posting after this season?

Dave Cameron: Unless he legitimately doesn’t care about money, he should wait until after next year.

Tyler: Gsellsman or Glasnow

Dave Cameron: Glasnow has more upside, Gsellman more certainty of starting. Depends on your risk tolerance.

Odor’s Horses: Do you think the change in bullpen strategies in the last few years will affect how teams develop pitchers? It seems that Starting pitchers are doing less and less complete games

Dave Cameron: I think we’re going to see less of a resistance to moving starters to the bullpen, especially if the multi-inning role catches on. With innings limits, having a guy like Urias throw ~100 IP in 2-3 inning stints could be an ideal way to break in a young pitcher.

Jewel: I was in Milwaukee Monday for Opening Day. For 4 innings, Gray was dominant, but in the 5th he couldn’t get anybody out… and I have to say, it seemed like both versions were the real Gray… awesome upside, but can be hit. What do you see out of him?

Dave Cameron: I think if he didn’t pitch in Coors, he’d already be seen as a legitimate ace.

Scott: Are the Dodgers’ struggles against lefties going to be a real thing again this year, or just a weird fluky thing?

Dave Cameron: The line-up is better against RHP, but they’ll be fine against LHPs.

CRW: This might be a question for Longenhagen, but when did Trout assert himself as the 65/70 FV player he currently is now? If he were listed on a prospect list similar to the ones Eric is doing would that FV have been indicated early on or after MILB success. Just curious as to what his tools would have been graded right after being drafted.

Dave Cameron: You have Trout as a 65/70 now? If he’s not an 80, 80s don’t exist.

Dave Cameron: And Trout made it clear he was going to be a monster pretty early. I saw him at the Futures Game when he was an 18 year old and it was clear he was the best player there.

James: Is there any correlation with pitcher arm slot and opposite-handiness batter wRC (or OPS+, etc…). Seems to be that lower arm-slot pitchers stand to gain more from the development of a changeup to neutralize their splits- is this true?

Dave Cameron: Lower arm lots = higher platoon splits. It’s also very hard to throw a change-up from a low arm slot.

Dave Cameron: These things are related.

Nick: What are your thoughts on Kendall Graveman? Is the velo bump for real? Jeff Zimmerman isn’t sold, but Brad and Sullivan seem to like him a lot.

Dave Cameron: I’d like him more if he wasn’t just a fastball guy. He threw 90% fastballs the other night.

Mackel: Why doesn’t fangraphs show the current team a player is on at the top? If it’s a player I’ve never heard of before I usually have to go and dig a little to figure out what team they are on. Shouldn’t this be an easy thing to fix?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s a good suggestion.

Andrew: What are your thoughts on the current, sometimes opposing viewpoints of the effectiveness of the shift?

Dave Cameron: People who think the shift doesn’t work are kidding themselves? It’s not responsible for the entirety of the downturn of offense like some people claimed, but it clearly works.

Dave Cameron: And this is the only sport where “put your defenders in the optimal spots” is even a discussion. Can you imagine it being called “the shift” if an NBA player double teams LeBron?

Skm: I’m a Rockies fan and I want to overreact. Should I overreact to (A) Gray and Anderson getting roughed up, or (B) the bullpen being lights out?

Dave Cameron: The bullpen being good is closer to being real.

Borkins: Your take on Tommy Joseph going 30/100

Dave Cameron: Is that 30 walks/100 Ks?

Dave Cameron: Because asking a HR/RBI question on FanGraphs is grounds for expulsion.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Is there any logical reason why there’s not a day game every day?

Dave Cameron: Day games get lower TV ratings, and TV is baseball’s primary source of revenue.

EvanC: Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale have the exact same career WAR. Which pitcher is more likely to end up in Cooperstown?

Dave Cameron: Bumgarner, easily. The playoff stuff helps a lot.

Erik: Which team will have the highest entertainment to wins ratio this year? Which team will have the lowest?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to watch a lot of Brewers games even though I think they’re going to be bad.

Dave Cameron: I think the Cardinals will be good, but not particularly interesting.

John: What would you do with Gallo? Seems like he has nothing left to prove in the minors but theres nowhere to play him in the majors, unless you put Profar in the same situation

Dave Cameron: He wasn’t very good in the minors last year. He’s got plenty more time to show improved contact.

Eergo: The Mariners have always stumbled out of the gate in April and it really frustrates me because there’s so much hype and potential. Anyways, do you think this is just an adjustment the lineup has to make because they have only scored 1 run in 2 games and the hitters haven’t been hitting the ball that hard especially yesterday against Mccullers

Dave Cameron: The team traded offense for defense, so expecting the line-up to be as good as last year would be wishcasting. But mostly it’s just Keuchel and McCullers are good.

Jon: What happens first, the MLB shortens service time to 5 year or the MLB minimum doubles based on NPV?

Dave Cameron: I can’t imagine a scenario where the owners agree to reduce the service time needed for FA.

Jon: Thanks for chatting. I am reading this instead of finishing my PhD, which is due on Tuesday.

Dave Cameron: Wise choice.

Fro: I get Moncada is down to save another year of team control, but as soon as that date in May hits (May 12th or 13th I believe) do you think he is called up unless he’s struggling down in AAA?

Dave Cameron: He’s not a finished product. A half-season in Triple-A won’t hurt him.

Doug: Betts, Bogaerts and Benintendi

Dave Cameron: Oh, yeah, there’s another pretty good under-25 group.

EvanC: So you prefer Contreras to Schwarber or Baez?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Matt: Chances Baez (or Schwarber) finish the season on the South Side, and Quintana is in Cubby blue?

Dave Cameron: 0.

Sonny: Arrieta looked off and Cubs have little SP depth, how strong is the urge to scream ‘this is why the Dodgers had a higher projected win total!!!’? you know, if you were the screaming type

Dave Cameron: Arrieta and Lester both way down in velo in first starts. I wouldn’t freak out yet, as it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the team has prepped guys to back off a bit early in the season in order to save bullets for the end of the year.

Dave Cameron: But if they’re both still down several mph in a month, yeah, it’s an issue.

NYtoLA: Re: Spin rate. Is that something that can be taught? Would think that most would try and go for high spin rate if possible.

Dave Cameron: From what we know right now, spin seems to be innate.

Pitching: As it’s Chris Sale day in Boston, what is the single trait that makes Sale so dominant?

Dave Cameron: Command. The stuff is very good, but he puts it where he wants it.

Paul: I remember you saying that Quintana is “alot” better than Teheran. But I see Julio owns a better career ERA, WHIP, and K/9, I don’t see a big gap at all.

Dave Cameron: Those are bad measures of pitcher value. Also, adjust for park/league.

Al: In a world where no one hit a ball at Andrelton Simmons all season, he’d rate awfully by the defensive metrics, correct?

Dave Cameron: No, he’d rate as average.

Erik: Is being able to throw multiple innings as a reliever a specific skill, or mostly just a function of how your manager uses you?

Dave Cameron: You need to be able to get both RHPs and LHPs out.

Dave Cameron: That’s a skill.

Erik: Are there teams out there waiting for the results of the Christian Bethancourt experiment before trying a similar one of their own, or are they evaluating whether or not to try something completely independently of how it works out in San Diego?

Dave Cameron: If something works, it becomes more accepted, but this is a trend not just in SD. Jordan Schafer was trying this in STL before his elbow blew out.

Colt Holt: Any idea on the breakeven point of creating more value in a multi inning reliever than mid rotation starter? It seems like the belief is still that Andrew Miller is less valuable than a true number 3…so what is the breaking point?

Dave Cameron: It’s different in the regular season versus the postseason. A dominant multi-inning guy who throws ~80 innings in relief is probably a +3 WAR pitcher, so that’s a #3 in how must people use that term. But once the postseason rolls around, that reliever is more valuable than any pitcher besides your ace.

Robin: Do you think that Wladimir Balentien would be successful if he came back stateside?

Dave Cameron: Do you consider Jorge Soler successful? Because he’d be that.

JJP: After reading the Angels farm report, I am sad. Is there anything you can say to cheer me up?

Dave Cameron: You have Mike Trout.

False Hope? : Patrick Corbin looked great in spring but looked pretty bad last night in his first real game. Is he the same old Patrick Corbin or is there hope for progress this year?

Dave Cameron: He has to figure out how to get RHBs out.

Dave Cameron: Until he does that, not sold.

JRuby: Regarding Trout or others on the 20-80 scale, I’ve heard that 50 is a purely average starter and every 10 points is about a standard deviation. So, a 60 player would be top 15% of all starters (maybe top 50 players in the league), a 70 player would be top 3% (top 10 or so), and an 80 would be top .3% (top 1 or 2 players in the league). Is that a useful way to think about it?

Dave Cameron: That’s roughly correct.

CRW: Sorry, my ignorance of the scouting scale. I had this idea no one could be an 80. I guess because there are so very few. So were his tool appreciably different when you saw him and when he was drafted? Why was he not in the Harper category of hype (SI writing articles about him when he was 15)?

Dave Cameron: He played in New Jersey, where it was cold and he was harder to see play games than the California kids or the guys who play in the warm weather in the south.

Dave Cameron: Once everyone saw him playing against other recent draftees, it became clear pretty quickly that he was really good.

tristan: alexei ramirez used to eat a mayonaise between two krispy kreme donuts as a pregame snack…

Dave Cameron: He should have had them more often because he’s still like 120 pounds.

Dave: Can Otani sign a 1 year deal and be a free agent afterwards? $25 million for one year doesn’t seem like a bad investment.

Dave Cameron: Nope. MLB will not allow any agreement that circumvents the international signing rules.

Harvey: A hypothetical re: Bumgarner vs. Sale – if the Red Sox win the world series this year (and Sale pitches well, maybe not Bumgarner playoff well, but still good), does your answer on cooperstown odds flip?

Dave Cameron: No. Bumgarner has 3 WS titles and several of the most iconic playoff performances of his time. Sale is way behind in October mystique.

Cameron: Most important quality of a big league manager, in-game decision making or ability to manage personalities?

Dave Cameron: The latter, by a lot.

Andrew: who has a better chance of outperforming their projections: lamb or castellanos? Steamer and zips seem to be down on both

Dave Cameron: I’d take Lamb learning to hit lefties over Castellanos learning to field.

Charley: Who would you say is the best player who ever had a legitimate 20-grade tool for the majority of their career?

Dave Cameron: Jamie Moyer had a 20 fastball for a long time.

Dave Cameron: Johnny Damon’s 20 arm?

Erik: What player furthest from 3000 hits would you give at least a 25% chance of reaching the milestone? How about 500 HRs?

Dave Cameron: Has to be Trout for both, right?

Paul: Braves are playoff competitors in what year?

Dave Cameron: 2019, maybe.

Dave Cameron: I’m not that high on their short-term chances.

Tom A.: People criticize Dombrowski for the Red Sox lack of depth and link that to the prospect trades. Crazy to say trading prospects for starting players eroded 2017 depth, right?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it’s so much the trades as it is that this is always been Dombrowski’s philosophy; he’s a stars and scrubs GM.

Tom A.: Nolan Ryan must’ve had 20 command for a long time, no?

Dave Cameron: No, 20 command guys don’t make the majors.

Dave Cameron: Nick Neugebauer had 20 command.

Dylan: Is Roy Halladay a Hall of Famer?

Dave Cameron: Easily yes for me.

Dave Cameron: But then Mussina and Schililng are also clearly deserving from my standpoint too.

Snarfle: Braves follow-up, do you think the Swanson-Albies combo will be star level or merely good? And is Albies going to be really entertaining, because he seems like it.

Dave Cameron: I think Swanson is probably more of a high-floor/moderate-ceiling guy than an elite upside prospect. Albies is interesting, and might have the higher ceiling of the two.

Al Kaline: I said on air that Nick C will have the best season of any tiger hitter including Miggy. Am in insane? Or is everyone not in Detroit sleeping on Nick?

Dave Cameron: You’re insane.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next Wednesday.