Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/15

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, and somewhere the Dodgers just scored 15 more runs, so let’s chat before they run up the score anymore than they already have.

Dave Cameron: The queue is open, and we’ll start in 15 minutes.

Dave Cameron: Let’s do this.

Comment From hscer
it seems crazy but I feel like Harper’s .308/.442/.675 is actually a realistic full season ceiling. disavow me of this

Dave Cameron: A .360 ISO isn’t really something that he can keep up, so ratchet down the power some, and the average will fall as some of those HRs get caught at the wall. But .280/.420/.580 or something? Sure.

Comment From hscer
what do you make of a pitcher whose current xFIP, FIP, and ERA are wildly variant?

Dave Cameron: They will likely come closer together as the season goes on.

Comment From Phillies113
Tom Tango recently speculated on his blog about the idea of having MLB games only on weekends (Fri, Sat, Sun), reducing the number of games to approx. 78 while having a significant markup in ticket prices to compensate. What are your thoughts on this?

Dave Cameron: This is the NCAA model, essentially. I think the problem is that ticket sales aren’t really the main driver of revenues for MLB teams anymore, and you wouldn’t get enough TV viewers tuning in on weekends to offset the dramatic loss of sellable content. MLB teams would lose a lot of money under this plan.

Comment From hscer
Playoff odds have LAD & WAS a combined 36% to win the World Series…does that seem right to you?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, somewhere in there. They’re really good.

Comment From mtsw
Any idea why some guys like Hamilton seem so bad at bunting? Unlike most baseball tasks, it really seems to just be a matter of practice, and doesn’t require strength, reaction speed or other athletic talents some guys might have more than others. Or is there more to it than it seemed like from playing little league?

Dave Cameron: It seems like he’s just not very good at bunting down the 3B line. It feels like that should be a thing he could learn, but MLB players say bunting is hard, so they’re probably right.

Comment From Shawn
Do you consider Stephen Strasburg as someone who has never “fully recovered” from TJ? Pre-surgery he was the definition of dominanat, but post surgery he seems to just not quite be the same, even when not struggling

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t seem clear that he’s currently healthy. Complaining of shoulder problems, having starts pushed back, getting bombed when he takes the mound, contact rate up 10 percentage points. I would not be shocked if a DL trip was in his near future.

Comment From RBIsAreBest
Doesn’t your article on the “unclutch” A’s ignore a simple explanation: BaseRuns ignores defense, which the A’s have been horrible at this year?

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns does not ignore defense, so no.

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns doesn’t attempt to separate credit between pitcher and fielder for hits allowed, which is one reason why it’s a team stat and not a player stat, but it absolutely is capturing the negative value of bad defensive performances.

Comment From Shawn
Chris Heston looked incredible last night. Just a really night against a strikeoue-prone Astros team, or is he really that good?

Dave Cameron: He’s not this good, but he’s also exactly the kind of pitcher scouts miss on the most. I wouldn’t be be surprised if he turned into a very nice middle of the rotation guy.

Comment From Don Eladio
Better record at end of the year Cubs or Mets

Dave Cameron: Cubs.

Comment From brendan
Do you buy Ethier’s resurgence? Do you think the Dodgers hang onto him after this early surge or is this just a happy boost in market value?

Dave Cameron: Puig and Crawford injuries give them no reason to rush the issue. If Ethier keeps hitting all summer, they’ll find room for him with one of those two likely on the DL for large portions of the year.

Comment From Shawn
Now that you’ve identified the Mets as the best fit for Tulo, what do you think they would have to give up to get him?

Dave Cameron: Tomorrow’s article!

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Thanks for the article on a potential Tulo trade (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…). What are the odds he is traded during the 2015 regular season?

Dave Cameron: I’d say 95%. I can’t imagine he doesn’t demand a trade at this point, and they have no reason to keep him.

Comment From Houzer
Would the Tigers have to give up anything more than a bag of rocks + salary relief to the Brewers for Broxton?

Dave Cameron: No. Anyone who wants Broxton and takes the money can have him.

Comment From Scott
Do you think the Red Sox will trade for a SP to bolster their rotation, or go with someone in house? (Wright, Rodriguez, Owens).

Dave Cameron: Both. They can’t keep rolling Justin Masterson out there, so I’d expect an in-house change soon, then a trade later.

Comment From hscer
Worry factor, 1-10, for Strasburg? he still has a 90 FIP- and his fastball velocity is where it was last year. that’s about where the good news ends.

Dave Cameron: If 10 is most worried, I’d say I’m a 7. The performance on its own is a little concerning, but mixed with shoulder problems, this is pretty high-risk.

Comment From Josh G
Do the Marlins sign Rafael Soriano soon or will they decide to stay in-house for the time being?

Dave Cameron: Seems like a pretty natural fit, though I’m not sure he’s that good anymore.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Van Slyke needs to play….more. Something’s gotta give….too many bats is a good problem….but it’s still a problem for L.A.

Dave Cameron: Why should the Dodgers intentionally make themselves worse?

Comment From Ray
With Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero hitting so well, what do the Dodgers do when Corey Seager and Hector Olivera are ready? Trade Guerrero?

Dave Cameron: Seager will spend the year in the minors. Guerrero’s opt-out-if-traded means he’ll stick around. I could see them flipping Turner this summer, though.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Where would K. Bryant rank on an updated Top-50 Trade Value list?

Dave Cameron: Top 15, probably.

Comment From Josh G
What do you expect from Paxton ROS? He hit 97 consistently last night but suddenly was having control issues.

Dave Cameron: That’s basically what I expect from Paxton rest-of-career. He’s always had bad command of good stuff. No reason to think that will change.

Comment From Kyle
What player’s performance has been the most surprising to you?

Dave Cameron: Stephen Vogt kind of has to be the answer, right?

Comment From Guest
I look at the Angels’ position player leaderboard, and I see four of their main starters at the bottom, three of which have histories of hitting. This has to get better right?

Dave Cameron: They aren’t this bad, but take Trout away and the Angels are the Twins.

Comment From John
what about heston makes people miss?

Dave Cameron: Velocity and breaking balls are overrated by scouts, command, sinkers, and change-ups are underrated. Heston is a command/sinker/change-up guy.

Comment From Greg
Is there any reason for the Cubs to keep Russell at 2nd when he’s clearly a better defender than Castro?

Dave Cameron: There’s a minimal gain to flipping them, and moving Castro off short hurts his trade value a lot.

Comment From Moop
Can you explain why a sacrifice fly = 0-0 while an RBI groundout = 0-1? They are exactly the same thing on paper, so why is the groundout punished?

Dave Cameron: The idea is that you hit a fly ball to score the run on purpose, but the RBI groundout didn’t have the same intent.

Comment From hscer
The Rockies won’t need to take on a penny of Tulo’s salary, would they?

Dave Cameron: No. They can if they want to get more in return, but Tulo’s contract is below market value.

Comment From JL
If you were starting a team from scratch and you had to choose between Betts or Bogaerts, who would you pick?

Dave Cameron: Mookie.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Tulo for Bogaerts and then some. Rockies eat $15m. Done?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the Mets offer.

Comment From Rick
They were not mentioned in your article, but do you think the Braves would make any sense for Tulo? Hart has said they would be open to trading for players under long contractual control that could help them beyond this year. He would just need to move to third base.

Dave Cameron: Zero chance.

Comment From Fister? I barely knew her!
Do you think the Mets would include Flores in a Tulo trade, or is that giving up too much?

Dave Cameron: You mean Wilmer Flores, right? Because unless they have another Flores I don’t know about who is incredibly awesome, that is most certainly not giving up too much. Wilmer Flores wouldn’t even be the best player going back in a Tulo deal.

Comment From Aestil
Kershaw worry factor? Great peripherals still, horrible outcomes. Is this just the sort of thing that happens, or is something wrong?

Dave Cameron: 1. He’s fine.

Comment From bbtb
The Padres outfield doesn’t appear to be working. Matt Kemp isn’t walking or hitting. Wil Myers is somehow a first baseman/center fielder. How would you recommend they restructure their roster?

Dave Cameron: Get a time machine and not make the Kemp trade.

Dave Cameron: Short of that, they’re stuck until they move Upton in July if they’re out of it, or until next winter when he leaves as a free agent.

Comment From Kiners Korner
Did I read that Tulo article correctly with no mention of the Pads?! I must’ve missed them…

Dave Cameron: COL won’t want to trade him in-division, and the Padres destroyed their farm system this winter anyway.

Comment From jocephus
was the lackey for kelly/craig deal actually a crime?

Dave Cameron: Kelly remains interesting long-term, but for a team in win-now mode, it doesn’t look great.

Comment From The Boat
Were the Indians overrated this year? Awful defense, mediocre offense, and some troubling pitching so far…should we have seen this coming?

Dave Cameron: I wasn’t as on board with them as everyone else, but they’re not this bad.

Comment From dom
Do all batted balls struck at the same exit velocity, at the same angle, with the same atmospheric conditions travel the same distance?

Dave Cameron: No. Spin matters too.

Comment From The Boat
Is it basically Seattle and Houston in the AL West at this point?

Dave Cameron: A’s and Angels aren’t entirely dead in the water. This might be a race to 85 wins.

Comment From Boomstick
Where is Xander Bogaerts likely to land on the trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Lower than the last few years.

Comment From mtsw
You’re often critical of scouting evaluations, suggesting their systematically biased towards high velo pitchers and raw power sluggers. Can we get like an hour-long podcast of you arguing about this with Kylie McDaniel?

Dave Cameron: It’s not being critical; it’s an evidence-based reality that the types of pitchers who generally perform far better than scouts expected are guys who throw 88-92 two-seamers with great command and a good change-up. This is just not an easy skillset to scout, relative to 95 with a big curve. It’s not a knock against scouts; it’s a recognition that picking out which of these types is going to be good is just more difficult.

Comment From Guest
“moving castro off short hurts his trade value a lot” — do other teams have that short a memory?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t have to do with memory; it’s a recognition that the team who knows him the best thought he couldn’t play SS while they were trying to win, so they’d put more confidence in that evaluation.

Comment From _David_
Does WAR underrate players like Zobrist who spend a lot of time at positions that carry a large negative adjustment, because of team needs, when they could be playing better defense at a tougher position?

Dave Cameron: If you moved Andrelton Simmons to first base, he’d be less valuable, even though he would be the same player. It’s measuring produced value, not true talent level.

Comment From John
could the padres get carlos gomez? do they have pieces left?

Dave Cameron: And do what with their OF? Move Myers to 1B, displacing Alonso, and get even more right-handed in their line-up?

Dave Cameron: The Padres built an inflexible roster that is hard to fix.

Comment From francis
Is Carlos Gomez a legit trade candidate this year ?

Dave Cameron: I’d be stunned if he wasn’t traded.

Comment From Guest
Who ends the season with more wins, Nationals or Cardinals?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals have a big lead, so even though I think WAS is the better team, STL.

Comment From Joey
Over/under 3.5 seasons before AJ Preller gets fired.

Dave Cameron: Under. If they don’t turn this thing around this year, it’s not clear how they’re going to contend any time soon. Upton leaves, Kemp gets worse, farm system gutted, and Dodgers only getting scarier.

Comment From Jason
When was the last time you did a chat without Betts and Bogaerts coming up?

Dave Cameron: 2008, maybe?

Comment From Houzer
Hypothetical trade .. if the Tigers were to fall out of contention, would Baltimore take Kinsler and Price for Schoop and Gausman?

Dave Cameron: In a heartbeat, but that would be a terrible trade for Detroit.

Comment From Burt Bacharach
Can anything be done to stop the auto playing video ad’s on the website. I’ve got no issue with the video part just the automatic sound that happens. I frequently have multiple tabs open of Fangraphs and it is a version of hell when they all start playing

Dave Cameron: We hate them as much as you do. We made some changes last night that should help. If you keep seeing them, let us know.

Comment From Alvin Davis
With all this talk about cheating and Tom Brady, is there a book you would recommend about cheating in baseball?

Dave Cameron: The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball, by Derek Zumsteg.

Comment From Kiners Korner
come on. for a player of Tulo’s magnitude, the Rox will trade him wherever they get the best deal. The Pads may not have the best chips left but they’ll certainly have interest.

Dave Cameron: Having interest doesn’t make them a legitimate suitor.

Comment From Ben
Hey Dave. Assuming Xander is in do you think the Red Sox would have the trade chips to land both Tulo and a Hamels or Cueto type pitcher? I’m not holding my breath but am curious.

Dave Cameron: Bogaerts probably gets you pretty close to Tulo by himself, I would think, leaving the rest of the farm system in play for pitching. If the Red Sox want to go in on 2015, Bogaerts+ for Tulo and then Rodriguez/Margot/Devers or something for Cueto/Chapman would be one way to do it .

Comment From Guest
nary a well-hyped red sox prospect of the past few years has been able to live up to the predictions. when do we start to wonder if they’re doing something wrong at the development stage?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Mookie Betts and his +3 WAR in half a season has really been a huge flop.

Comment From John
but mike fiers was pretty highly regarded as a prospect, no? and he is the 88-92 two seamer but without command? do scouts also rely to heavily on draft position when making those decisions as well?

Dave Cameron: No, Mike Fiers was never much of a prospect.

Comment From Guest
“it’s a recognition that the team who knows him the best thought he couldn’t play SS while they were trying to win, so they’d put more confidence in that evaluation.” I’m not trying to be rude or dense, but other teams have literally thousands of innings of Castro at SS to review. It’s not clear to me how the Cubs’ decision regarding playing time takes precedent over internal review of that tape.

Dave Cameron: No one knows the strengths and weaknesses of a player like the team that currently owns him. It doesn’t mean they defer entirely, but if a team moves a player off a position, that’s going to carry weight with other teams.

Comment From The Boat
Re: Gomez – Myers could be part of the trade package to Milwaukee, helping with the outfield logjam somewhat.

Dave Cameron: Possible, I guess, if the Brewers included Segura too. I doubt AJ moves Myers so quickly though.

Comment From Greg
Do you think Rizzo has a shot at the MVP this season if the Cubs finish well?

Dave Cameron: Not if Bryce Harper doesn’t cool off.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, he’d be a good second tier candidate.

Comment From Guest
Tough question to ask, but I’ll try anyway. What is a World Series “worth” in terms of prospects? If a team like the Twins could trade Buxton for an extremely high likelihood they would win a World Series, they would be smart to do so right? Obviously, very hypothetical, but curious as to what winning a WS is valued at vs. ten years of a high end “prospect”.

Dave Cameron: Winning a WS has an estimated economic benefit of close to $100M, so worth more than even the best prospect in baseball. If you could swap any player for a guaranteed World Series title, you should probably do it. But you can’t.

Comment From Alvin Davis
What free agent deal should Alex Gordon get this offseason?

Dave Cameron: $100-$125 million, probably.

Comment From Guest
Why in the world would the Rockies swap Tulo for Bogaerts by himself

Dave Cameron: Because they’d also free up $20 million per year in future salary, and Bogaerts + what they could buy with that money is likely more valuable to them going forward than an aging injury prone guy who is about to demand a trade?

Comment From Chris
PEOPLE, why are you so anxious to trade Xander Bogaerts!?! He won’t be 23 until October and he looks great defensively. Yes, he’s struggling with the bat, but most youngsters do. He’s still a VERY good player for his age. I think the “trade Xander” talk needs to be tempered down quite a bit…

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone wants to give him away, but if you can get Troy Tulowitzki, you have to at least think about it.

Comment From Josh
Do you think the White Sox fall out of contention and deal Samardjzia? Could you see him as a solid fit in STL? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he’ll get moved again this summer. Could see him being a fit in LA too.

Comment From T
Cueto, Chapman for Seager Urias? Who says no? Cueto, Chapman, Leake for Seager, Urias?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers would laugh at that. Cueto and Chapman are awesome, but they aren’t worth that.

Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision
Any idea what the economic benefit is for the LOSER of the WS? KC seems rejuvenated

Dave Cameron: Just getting there gets you a ton of future revenue.

Dave Cameron: Less than winning it, but still a lot.

Comment From Guest
bogaets has multiple seasons of not being a particularly good major league baseball player, this isn’t even he’ll-be-good-when-peripherals-line-up betts we’re talking about

Dave Cameron: Those “several years” are at age-21/22. Lots of good players weren’t good big leaguers at this point in their career.

Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision
Guess a date for when the trade season starts?

Dave Cameron: June 15th.

Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s it for me today. Nanny had to take the day off so think of me this afternoon if you hear a baby screaming from some distance land…