Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/15

Dave Cameron: It’s my last chat for the month of May — I’m taking next week off — so get your questions in now before the calendar reads June.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll start in 15 minutes.

Comment From Kris
What are the odds that Shelby Miller, Jace Peterson, Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler have more combined 2015 WAR than Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Justin Upton and Craig Kimbrel

Dave Cameron: Not very good. I’d say 5 to 1 or something like that.

Comment From Guest
Did the Braves, against all odds, actually win that Miller/Heyward swap?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure why you’d think it would be against all odds; that trade was a fair swap for both sides, and pretty much everyone said so at the time, I think. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From hscer
Last week Harper was hitting .308/.442/.675 and you successfully disavowed me of the notion he could do that over a full season. But, um…how is this still going on?? His ISO is over .400 now!!

Dave Cameron: He’s very good, but his current wRC+ is something out of Babe Ruth’s peak. I’m as big a Harper guy as there is, so it’s not being down on him to suggest this will not last.

Comment From gareth bale
If the White Sox fall out of the race, what is a realistic return for Jeff Samardzija?

Dave Cameron: A lot less than they gave up. Maybe one good-not-great prospect.

Comment From hscer
Will someone be chatting next Wednesday?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ll get a pinch-hitter.

Comment From JT
Has your estimation of the Diamondbacks changed based on their early season play? They don’t appear to be in the running for worst team in baseball anymore, albeit their pitching staff leaves much to be desired.

Dave Cameron: No, they’re still bad. Bad teams can play okay for a few months.

Comment From KB
How many GMs with a career losing record without a championship to their credit in the history of MLB have been in the position on the same team long enough to fire five different managers? Probably the only thing Doug Melvin has in common with Billy Beane.

Dave Cameron: It will be really quite amazing if Doug Melvin survives this. It seems pretty clear that he shouldn’t.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
How do the dog and baby get along?

Dave Cameron: The dog is still somewhat scared of the baby, and runs away from physical contact whenever we try to put them near each other. But she also loves to walk next to the stroller, so, who knows? I guess she loves him as long as he’s restrained.

Comment From Abe
Who says no. James Paxton for Carlos Gomez.

Dave Cameron: Mariners probably don’t have the pitching depth to give Paxton up at this point.

Comment From Lancer
I’m 45 and self-employed with zero ret. savings. I’m finally out of debt and can now put away $1500-$2000/month. What should I do?

Dave Cameron: Build up a significant emergency fund so that you don’t go back in debt if something happens. Open a solo-401k so you can start saving for retirement. Live as frugally as you realistically can; if you can really put away $20,000 per year for the next 15 years, you’ll be okay by the time retirement comes around. You probably won’t ever have a lavish lifestyle given the late start, but you’ll be fine.

Comment From Tim
Bryce Harper overreaction level has reached critical mass. He’s going to be an MVP candidate (we knew this) but he’s still due a healthy amount of regression right?

Dave Cameron: Of course. But more than just being a candidate, he’s the strong frontrunner for NL MVP at this point. Cardinals don’t have a star that will get votes, since they are just a no-holes kind of winner. Dodgers have too many good players and will split votes. Maybe McCutchen could make a case if he has a huge second half and Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, but Harper is the very easy pick for MVP given his numbers and the Nationals odds of reaching the postseason.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
How big are the error bars on Cal Ripken’s 1991 WAR of 10.6?

Dave Cameron: When you’re at that level, the error bars aren’t really even; it’s more likely that he was a +9.5 WAR player than an +11.5 WAR player, for instance. So maybe +1/-2?

Comment From Tim
Assuming Cueto is gone via trade or FA, do the Reds attempt to keep Leake or Chapman going forward or should they be fielding offers for them too?

Dave Cameron: Blow it up. Start over.

Comment From Josh G
Who do you see the Rangers going with as their closer?

Dave Cameron: They don’t really have anyone good enough to hold that role down for a long time.

Comment From Z
Player currently age 35+ that will have most total WAR over 2016-18 period?

Dave Cameron: Adrian Beltre, maybe?

Comment From jerkstore
encarnacion or bautista to the angels for richards? Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Angels would have no interest.

Comment From Hunter
Late enough in the year to call the Astros legit contenders?

Dave Cameron: I think we have their playoff odds at ~60%, so yeah.

Comment From STiVo
Does Fangraphs update the game odds in the “Live Scoreboard” after lineups are announced? (I noticed that lineups haven’t been announced for most games, but the odds are not 50/50 for those games.)

Dave Cameron: Yes, there are two sets of game odds for each game; pre-lineup and post-lineup. The first one is based on the starting pitcher and the depth charts, and the second one is based on the actual players playing that day.

Comment From Z
What are you doing on your off-week?

Dave Cameron: Taking a family vacation to the beach. Taking the dog, the kid, the nanny, and a bunch of friends. I’m looking forward to paying almost no attention to baseball for a few days.

Comment From hscer
Non-zero chance the A’s and Nats do a trade-back in July, Clippard for Esocbar?

Dave Cameron: Zero chance. Nats need Escobar more than Clippard. They can find another RP without giving up one of their starters.

Comment From Catoblepas
At what point do the Red Sox consider Mike Napoli not worth starting every day? With Castillo waiting for an outfield spot and Hanley trying his best to open one up, it’s not like there isn’t a ready-made replacement scenario.

Dave Cameron: I’m writing about this for tomorrow.

Comment From e
how much would Lindor help the Indians defense? How do they fix this problem moving forward with so many below avg defenders as part of their core?

Dave Cameron: Lindor is no panacea. This is just a bad defensive team, and the only way to fix it is to swap out a bunch of good bat/bad glove types for the opposite, which would hurt the offense just as much or more than it would help the defense. They’ll just have to live with it.

Comment From Mojo
Would the Jays be a good fit for Samardzija? And would Miguel Castro be a reasonable return?

Dave Cameron: Miguel Castro isn’t good.

Comment From mtsw
Besides the Phillies, are there any teams you’re comfortable crossing off entirely from playoff contention? Even Rangers and Rockies are at > 1% playoff odds still

Dave Cameron: Those odds don’t factor in mid-season sell-offs, which are inevitable for teams like the Rockies. They have no real shot.

Comment From Z
Who will be in Boston’s rotation in September?

Dave Cameron: Cueto, Porcello, Buchholz, another veteran innings eater, Miley.

Dave Cameron: Maybe they’ll go nuts and get Cueto/Leake/Chapman in one trade.

Comment From dom
I thought it was funny that Cistuli said when people ask him what he does he doesn’t know how to answer so he says “..well, have you seen the movie moneyball”

Dave Cameron: I say the same thing frequently.

Comment From Matt
Giants seem to be on a roll. Fluke? Or can they legitimately win the West? Dodgers are in big trouble with Ryu now out.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are not in any trouble at all. They’ll win that division by 10+ games.

Comment From Total Clown
Dave, I should know about personal finance, but here we are, and I don’t. If I max out annual permissible IRA contributions to a work-sponsored fund, can I also open a Vanguard IRA as you have suggested in the past?

Dave Cameron: You can have both an IRA and a 401k (or 403b if you work for a non-profit), yes. There are income levels at which you are no longer able to deduct your IRA contributions from your taxes if you have an employer-sponsored plan, but you can just do a Roth IRA at that point.

Comment From MMZ
Please tell Mattingly that Grandal doesn’t need to be platooned. He has hit lefties decently, and is certainly better than Ellis against them.

Dave Cameron: No point running Grandal into the ground; he hasn’t been the healthiest guy in history.

Comment From BC
What is the deal with Bartolo Colon this year, how has he managed one BB and 42 Ks while mostly throwing fastballs?

Dave Cameron: Voodoo. It’s the only explanation.

Comment From Guest
How often does a league have three heavy favorites to win the divisions? It seems like the NL right now is an outlier compared to history.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t remember an entire league being this easy to handicap in a long time. And then, on the other hand, there’s the AL, where every team sucks.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Hey Dave, What do you think the Cubs do in left field? Will they keep the status quo with Coghlin, trade for an upgrade, or bring up a prospect? If prospect, which one?

Dave Cameron: They’ll make a trade, I expect. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to get Josh Reddick once the A’s move into sell mode.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Outside of starting my own (very successful) business, what’s the best way for a 40-year-old making $100K/year to make a significant amount of money in the next few years? By significant, I mean, $1M in five years or something.

Dave Cameron: Do something illegal.

Comment From DJ
At what point could it be reasonably assumed that the Astros are what they are moving forward?

Dave Cameron: You should never evaluate a player or team by their in-season stats alone. You should always, even after 162 games, include prior information in your understanding of their overall talent level.

Comment From hscer
With 3.1 right now, where do you think Harper’s end-of-year WAR will be rounded to the nearest whole? The ROS projection systems already indicate 7.

Dave Cameron: I’ll put +8 as the over/under.

Comment From Zach
We can’t continue this chat until you post your take on cute athlete kids being apart of post game press conferences. THOUGHTS?!

Dave Cameron: I’ve done a few radio hits while holding my four month old, and so I’m clearly in favor of mixing children with talking to the press.

Comment From Brett W
Anthony Rizzo is an MVP candidate too, yes?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s in the mix, but he doesn’t have Harper’s power numbers, and his team is less likely to make the postseason.

Comment From hscer
Scherzer’s 2019-21 salaries are completely deferred. Bryce Harper is scheduled to hit FA in 2019. Coincidence?

Dave Cameron: I’d put the odds of the Nats re-signing Harper at less than 1%. He just seems exceedingly likely to join the Yankees or Dodgers for $600 million or something.

Comment From Josh G
Do you see the Brewers potentially trying to package Braun with Gomez in a trade?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely. Most teams don’t need two OFs.

Comment From Catoblepas
It seems like many GMs now prefer almost Major League-ready prospects over unvarnished, dreamable low minors guys. Do you think that’s based on a new understanding of prospect risk and payoff, or just a normative preference for shorter timelines?

Dave Cameron: I think teams have gotten smarter and now realize that there’s more value in lower ceiling but MLB ready talent than they used to believe.

Comment From mtsw
If Harper makes it to FA without signing an extension, what’s his contract look like?

Dave Cameron: He’ll be heading into his age-26 season, so assuming he turns into the star that we’re all expecting and stays healthy, I think you’re probably looking at a crazy long deal. Given his immense talent and three more winters of inflation, you’re probably looking at the top-end players making $35 to $40 million a year by the time he gets to FA, and then he’ll get a premium for being so young. So, I’ll guess 15/$600M.

Comment From walt
what kind of market would exist for Kluber if the Indians made him available?

Dave Cameron: An extremely robust one. They probably shouldn’t go that far yet.

Comment From Houzer
hypothetical .. if the Tigers can’t re-sign Price, and Victo falls off a cliff, what would you think about dealing Miggy to the Red Sox for Xander, Swinehart, and Mookie?

Dave Cameron: Considering that Cabrera’s contract is one of the worst in baseball, that would never happen.

Comment From e
will anyone ever come close to a Bonds-esque .600 obp in a season? even .500?

Dave Cameron: I would imagine MLB doesn’t want to get back to the offensive eras of the late-90s, so it will be almost impossible for anyone to do that again.

Comment From Guest
what do you make of the As? Still consider them a good team?

Dave Cameron: They’re an above average team that has been destroyed by their bullpen. I’d expect them to be a little better than .500 going forward if they weren’t going to trade away guys like Kazmir and Zobrist, but they probably will.

Comment From _David_
How fun is it going to be when people are debating Trout/Cruz MVP and Trout is literally 6 WAR ahead.

Dave Cameron: You have a weird definition of fun.

Comment From Matt Carpenter
I’ve got a pretty good case going for being the “star” the Cardinals don’t have

Dave Cameron: You’re an excellent player, but you’re not exactly what MVP voters are looking for.

Comment From Kyle
Who would you rather have at their peak, Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan?

Dave Cameron: Johnson, easily. Nolan Ryan was amazing for his durability, but he was never as good as the best pitchers of all time at his best.

Comment From kevinthecomic
I’m in energy risk management — whenever someone asks me what I do for a living, I usually start out with “Do you remember Enron? Well………..”

Dave Cameron: How many times have you gotten punched?

Comment From Bigglesworth
Do the Dodgers possibly acquire Cueto or Hamels now that Ryu’s gone, even if it means moving Seager or Uria ?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’ll ask about both, but they’re not trading either of those guys for Cueto or Hamels.

Comment From Guest
Dodgers by 10+? That seems like a stretch.

Dave Cameron: Our playoff odds have them winning it by 13. And that’s without considering that they’ll get better in July. http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Is the talent in the AL worse than in the NL, or is it just more dispersed?

Dave Cameron: The latter.

Comment From Matt
You mentioned Cubs buying and As selling. Are you implying that you think the Cubs are going for the gold this year?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll definitely be buyers barring a disaster over the next month or so.

Comment From hscer
More generally then, could Clippard be on the Nats radar near the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Sure, I think they’d probably like to get him back, but at a discount.

Comment From Callum
How much wouldit cost the Cubs to get Josh Reddick and Scott Kazmir from the A’s

Dave Cameron: A lot. Reddick’s breakout might be more real than some others, and he’s still super cheap and under team control.

Comment From Ted
Why do defensive metrics love Wilmer Flores? Even in the small sample, it’s not like he has passed the eye test and scouts don’t like him.

Dave Cameron: The eye test is often just code for “he made some errors while I was watching” or “he’s got thick legs”. The eye test is mostly worthless.

Dave Cameron: That doesn’t mean that UZR/DRS are perfect, but they’re more useful than the eye test.

Comment From Guest
Scherzer a darkhorse for MVP?

Dave Cameron: Harper will get all the votes on that team unless he gets hurt.

Comment From War2d2
Schwarber’s bat looks ready, and Baez appears to have found his stroke. How long before one of them comes up to replace Coghlan and his 85 WRc+? Hell, even Vogelbach is killing it—tell the fat kid to play on the lip of the warning track and let him swing.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’re going to experiment with positional changes in the midst of a playoff race. More likely, those two are trade chips.

Comment From dbet
Will the Dodgers trade for a pitcher at this point? Do you think the finalizing of Olivera’s contract make Seager available?

Dave Cameron: They’ll trade for a pitcher, but not any time soon. Frias and Bolsinger are decent enough to hold down the back-end for a while, and they’ll win their division comfortably. The trade will be about finding a better #3 for the postseason.

Comment From dom
I agree Cabrera has one of the worst contracts, but would someone like the dodgers pony up anything of value for him now?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers don’t have anywhere to put him.

Comment From fantasy+baseball
friend is trying to argue that harper is the best player in baseball over trout. how crazy is he?

Dave Cameron: Crazy. Even if you think Harper has caught up to Trout at the plate — and you shouldn’t think that yet, probably — there’s still everything that isn’t hitting that Trout is better at.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Schwarber going to catch in MLB or play OF?

Dave Cameron: He seems like a guy that the A’s will stick behind the plate for a few years before he moves to 1B.

Comment From mtsw
Peak Randy Johnson or Peak Kershaw? Who ya takin?

Dave Cameron: Johnson. Kershaw is great, but Johnson was better.

Comment From Sean
Can you explain how DEF is calculated at a team level? It does not correlate with UZR – is this from park factors?

Dave Cameron: DEF is UZR plus the positional adjustment, so that a +10 SS is rightfully given more credit than a +10 1B.

Comment From Josh G
What position does Semien eventually end up at? He’s atrocious at SS.

Dave Cameron: 2B, probably.

Comment From Guest
Would it really be an “experiment” to shift Bryant to LF and Baez to 3B? Both have played there prior.

Dave Cameron: Bryant hasn’t played OF much at all, and Baez isn’t really a very good hitter yet, so having him displace Coghlan isn’t really much of an upgrade.

Comment From JCougar
How can you say the Cabrera contract is one of the worst, when you expect Harper to get 15/$600,000? It’s not like Harper and the DL have ever met.

Dave Cameron: Harper isn’t getting $40 million a year now, and when he does, he won’t be worth trading three really good young assets for.

Comment From fantasy baseball
dodgers don’t need a 3B?

Dave Cameron: They have like nine of them, and Miguel Cabrera isn’t a 3B.

Comment From PEDRO RULES
Peak Pedro or peak anyone else?

Dave Cameron: Peak Pedro was as good as anyone ever.

Comment From Kris
Schwarber plays for the Cubs

Dave Cameron: Yes, I know that. I was saying he’s the kind of player that seems like a fit for the A’s and the types of catchers they value.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some work done. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you guys in a couple of weeks.