Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 5/4/16

Dave Cameron: Back after a nice vacation last week, so let’s try to get two weeks worth of questions in today.

Alan: As a miserable Atlanta fan, can you give me some hope? And when’s the earliest you could see this franchise back in the mix for a playoff spot?

Dave Cameron: Have you seen what Swanson and Albies are doing in the minors? There’s a real chance that could be your starting middle infield next year, and those guys could represent a massive improvement from the disaster that Aybar/Peterson have been. Inciarte is still a nice player when he gets healthy, Freeman will bounce back. They are halfway to a decent lineup. The pitching stinks, so this will take a few years, but there are pieces in place.

O’s Lover: Is it time to give up on Schoop? All predictions had his breakout year coming – too soon to pull the plug?

Dave Cameron: He is what he is; a powerful slugger with lousy command of the strike zone.

S: Rockies fans have to be encouraged by Jon Gray so far, right?

Dave Cameron: I’d like to see him dominate someone besides the Padres, but sure.

Tom: Should Luis Severino be back in Triple A right now?

Dave Cameron: No; his struggles are mostly about runner stranding. He’ll be fine.

Jacob: Top 5 position players in the game right now?

Dave Cameron: Trout, Harper, Machado, Donaldson, and Posey.

S: In hindsight, Jeff Bridich unloaded Tulo just in time before his value flopped. Would current Tulo bring back anything close to Jeff Hoffman and others?

Dave Cameron: No; his value is way down since the trade. That said, so is Jose Reyes’, so the Blue Jays also dumped a toxic asset who was about to become immovable.

Cubs.: Cubs? Cubs!

Dave Cameron: They are what, 19-7, and underperforming both pythag and BaseRuns. It’s crazy.

Eric: Kris Bryant has cut his K-rate from 30% to almost 20%. Still somewhat of a small sample, but it’s been over 100 PA. Do you think he can maintain these gains? Can he be a .300 hitter going forward?

Dave Cameron: Contact rate is up from 67 to 75%, which is more encouraging than the cut in strikeout rate by itself. Still hard to hit .300 with a 75% contact rate, but he could do it.

Dr. Henry Killinger: What’s your thought on Taijuan Walker these days? You have (justifiably, in my opinion) expressed skepticism before, but from what I can see he seems to be legitimately improving. Barring an exploded arm, see any reason to still be particularly wary?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this version is just better than previous versions. I don’t think he’s this good, but he’s definitely proving my skepticism wrong.

njs: if you know: how many singles does it take to create the same offense (runs scored?) as a HR? i ask b/c i’m interested in the tipping point between when a player should trade contact (singles) for power (hrs).

Dave Cameron: This site has the variables we use to calculate wOBA, which will help you derive your answer. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

Johnny Appleseed: If the world series this year somehow ended up being Cardinals/Yankees, would you just take time off and go hike the Appalachian Trail? I’d imagine it would be mighty tempting.

Dave Cameron: Well, I won’t be able to hike the Appalachian Trail during the World Series, because I won’t be living in North Carolina in October. The wife and I are heading west this fall, and I’m pretty excited about it.

Young Jeezy: What’s your outlook for Michael Conforto? Does he continue his breakout through the rest of the season?

Dave Cameron: He’s not going to keep hitting for this kind of power, but he’s clearly a very good hitter.

Dave Cameron: These new emoji reaction things are weirding me out.

Shoeless Joe: How long do the White Sox need to play at this level before everyone is a believer?

Dave Cameron: Well they aren’t this good, so no one should be a believer that they’re a .650 team. But the AL Central isn’t very good, so this hot start should allow them to be a legitimate contender all year.

Dave Cameron: Alright, taking a pause to figure out how to turn these emoji reactions off.

Dave Cameron: Apparently I can’t turn them off mid-chat.

Dave Cameron: So let’s just try a public request; how about people stop using them? It’s highly distracting.

Dave Cameron: I guess I should have known that wouldn’t work.

Ben: Early thoughts on the roster Jerry Dipoto put together? After a disappointing 2-6 start, they’ve now won 6 series in a row. Are they overperforming or is this pretty much what we expected?

Dave Cameron: The bullpen won’t keep pitching this well forever.

Dave Cameron: But they’re a decent .500ish team.

Confortod for the Jokes: Are the rays better off with Erasmo as their 5th starter, or in the bullpen and Snell in the rotation?

Dave Cameron: The latter.

Hamist02: Can you please explain how the high fastball and pitching up in the zone helps a pitcher. For example, how is pitching up in the zone helping Drew Smyly. I thought traditional wisdom was staying down in the zone was better.

Dave Cameron: You get more whiffs up in the zone. Pitching low in the zone leads to more contact.

Kevin: What is the protocol with Rich Hill? Ignore the lack of innings and just keep throwing him out there because he is 36?

Dave Cameron: Pretty much, yeah. There’s no long career to protect here. You throw him until he breaks.

Concerned White Sox Fan: How long do you give Avisail Garcia at DH before you start looking elsewhere? Any trade partners that you see as a good fit for the White Sox for another bat?

Dave Cameron: I would have been looking for other options a month ago. The sooner they bench him, the better.

THE MAN WITH THE PLAN: ANDREW BENINTENDI: WHAT SAY YOU?!

Dave Cameron: He’s going to be fantastic.

Turbo: With several aces off to weak starts, what do you make of the theory that they are being given fewer borderline strikes? E.g., their status got them “benefit of the doubt” calls that they aren’t getting now that the zone is being monitored more closely, and they haven’t adjusted yet, sending walk rates way up

Dave Cameron: No real evidence to support it.

Bloodwaters of Dr. Z: Kid watching mind-numbing children’s tv yet, or is that still to come?

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t have any interest in screens. It’s great.

Bloodwaters of Dr. Z: What is Dave’s drink of choice when he’s out for dinner?

Dave Cameron: Water.

Nelson: Would the return for Braun be higher now or at the trade deadine?

Dave Cameron: Teams aren’t ready to trade yet, so in a month or two. Everyone always waits until after the draft to get serious about trade season.

Frankie Fast Hands: I was surprised to see you comment that Phillies won’t catch Nats or Mets in the next two years likely. As a Nats fan I’m very worried about next year. Crawford, Williams, and decent pitching depth in upper minors. Weaknesses at 1st base and bullpen are easy to upgrade, and they have plenty of money. You really don’t think they can be playoff contenders next year?

Dave Cameron: No; their current record is an illusion. The offense is atrocious — 70 wRC+ right now — and Crawford won’t fix that by himself. The pitching gives them a higher floor than previously thought, but they need six or seven new hitters.

JTT: Dr. james Andrews being involved adds a lot of legitimacy to Sandovals injury but why was the whole situation so sketchy and secretive?

Dave Cameron: Well there’s a federal law that protects patients health records.

Dr. Frank Jobe: Should Boston pull the trigger and get Ryan Braun as you suggested, do they become the team to beat in the AL?

Dave Cameron: I think so, yes.

Eddie Oropesa: You mentioned on Twitter last night that the Phils may have an ace in Nola. His ceiling was basically universally accepted as a #3, likely because of velocity limitations. But we’ve seen a ton of “#1s” throw in the 90-92 range. When can we start to make that distinction for a guy like Nola?

Dave Cameron: Obviously he needs to do this for more than a month, but the command looks pretty great, and it’s not easy to run a 30% strikeout rate and 50% groundball rate for even a month; he’s better than advertised.

Erik: BaseRuns has the Cardinals as the third best team in the league so far. Do you buy that?

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns isn’t forecasting anything, it’s just saying they’ve played like a team that deserves a better record than they have. I don’t believe Aledmys Diaz and Jeremy Hazelbaker will keep hitting .450, no.

Christian: Is it too early to just give up as a Yankees fan? There’s gotta be something…right?

Dave Cameron: They have something like a 125 ERA- and an 85 xFIP-. The results will improve.

B Bop: If Corey Seager has a career that is more or less identical to his brother Kyle’s, would that be considered successful for him, or disappointing?

Dave Cameron: Successful.

PhilsPhan: The Phillies are 16-11, but projections still have them finishing at 70 wins for the season. In order to do that, they need to have a RoS W% of .319. Looking at monthly records from last season, they only managed to dip below that W% one month. Considering the improvements this team has made from last year to this, doesn’t 70 wins seem low?

Dave Cameron: I think your math is off; we have them playing .400 ball the rest of the way in order to finish 70-92. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Brett: It sounds like multiple Braves beat writers think Albies and Swanson could be up in the second half. Wouldn’t that be a mistake in terms of team control?

Dave Cameron: The team control deadline is already passed, and Super Two will pass in about six weeks. After that, it doesn’t matter when they come up.

Curtis: What is the single greatest factor in prospect failure? With the information as deep as it is these days on players, it seems odd that as many top prospects fail to even make it to the big leagues… it’s also part of what’s enjoyable about the game – not the failure but the rise of others and the anticipation of a Correa or Harper as well…

Dave Cameron: I would guess it’s work ethic.

Nick: 50/50 odds or better that Swihart is traded for a pitcher at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Not sure it will be for a pitcher, but I’d bet his Red Sox career is over.

Scotty: Any change the Nats trade for both Lucroy and Braun, maybe including Werth to offset salary?

Dave Cameron: Ramos hitting well probably make that unlikely.

Jerry: The Cubs are off to a pretty incredible start yet, as a Cubs fan, I still find myself somewhat bummed about the Kyle Schwarber injury. And feel like eventually he will be missed dearly. The statistical community seems to have mostly minimized the loss since the day the news broke. I’m curious why that is. (and if you respond, please offer up something more than “doesn’t look like they’ve missed him so far”)

Dave Cameron: The difference between Schwarber and Soler in left just isn’t that huge, especially since Baez is also showing some value and getting playing time due to the injury.

Josh: Best guess as to when Washington calls up Turner?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess they’ll leave him down as long as they’re winning, with a don’t-mess-with-what’s-not-broken mentality.

Dave Cameron: But if they start losing, he’ll be up.

Tommy: Shelby Miller…..panic time? He’s been beyond terrible so far.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t panic, but his mechanics are clearly out of whack. When you are scraping your hand on the mound, you’re doing something wrong.

Greg: Why would any owner want the MLB to expand since they can’t protect all their players. Obviously there are some albatrosses (Howard, Pujols) that owners would want to dump, but there can’t be THAT many, no?

Dave Cameron: They get massive checks from the owners who pay expansion fees to acquire a new franchise.

mtsw: Will the Yankees’ unexpected struggles make them sellers at the deadline? Some intriguing pieces (Chapman!) on the roster and a lot of salary they would probably like to unload in return.

Dave Cameron: Depends how long this lasts. I don’t think they’ll panic and sell early, but if they’re out of it in July, yeah, they’ll be trading Chapman.

Wagon Train: Heading west? Moving back to the PNW or somewhere new?

Dave Cameron: My wife accepted a job at the cancer center in Bend, Oregon. So a new part of the PNW for me.

Owen S: I just clicked that link you gave on wOBA calculations. Why in Jesus’ name has a HBP been worth more than a BB every single year?

Dave Cameron: Walks are sometimes issued strategically, so some of them come in situations where the value of the walk to the offense is quite low. HBPs are mostly random, and aren’t distributed in the same way as walks, so the offense gets more value from them not being issued when it helps them the least.

Rocky: Do you think the Braves could pull off a trade for Arenado or K.Seager for 3rd base in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: No.

RIcky: Is Jake Arrieta the best pitcher in baseball?

Dave Cameron: No one is in Kershaw’s class.

some guy: from our side, if you click on the head-shot above “send” you can turn off the emoji’s

Dave Cameron: Here’s to hoping they don’t show up in the transcript.

Matt: Does FG have a policy on web-scraping?

Dave Cameron: If you’re just using it for your own research, I doubt Appelman would care. If you’re going to scrape the site to put it up on your own site, that’d be not cool.

Support: While you can toggle the reactions display for yourself in the settings panel, individual users can choose to hide the reactions in their own settings dialog/section.

Dave Cameron: FYI, sounds like you guys can make it so you don’t see them. And I’ll make sure they’re turned off for all future chats.

Chuck: Think the Astros can still win the West?

Dave Cameron: Can? Sure. But I wouldn’t bet on it anymore.

What have i done: Just found out my wife is pregnant. Any books you’d recommend reading before the birth?

Dave Cameron: I think the best thing we did was not read the millions of parenting books you’ll be inundated with. Get a pediatrician you trust, ask them questions, believe that they know what they’re doing, and don’t freak out over every little thing.

Ken M: Dave Cameron at his spunkiest puts what on his saltine crackers? A little extra salt?

Dave Cameron: I use saltines to eat tuna.

Stu: Can you answer the actual fantasy baseball questions? This is a fantasy baseball chat.

Dave Cameron: No it’s not.

Erik: Is BaseRuns universally a better estimate of a team’s true talent than W-L record? Or are their scenarios in which good old fashioned record is more informative?

Dave Cameron: If you could play 500 games with the same roster, W-L might pass BaseRuns for real information, but over 162 games, you’re better off with BaseRuns, and since rosters change from year to year, multi-year W-L doesn’t really tell you anything about a particular team.

Roger: Where do you stand on the recent conversations regarding Robinson Cano as a possible or probable Hall of Famer?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s going to fall just short. At +45 WAR now, probably ends career with +60ish, which is where a lot of not-quite-elected guys end up.

E: what is the worst part of your job?

Dave Cameron: Emoji reactions in chats.

Bobo: Re: Swihart. Think Braves could be possible trade partner? They are very slim in the catching department.

Dave Cameron: Could be, but don’t know what they have that Dombrowski would want. They aren’t going to trade for Inciarte.

NL East: You say the Phillies need 6 or 7 new hitters, but won’t they basically have that? RF, LF, SS, 1b, and C are all basically guaranteed to be different next year, with a strong bet three of those come within the org (Williams, Crawford, Knapp/Alfaro). They’ve got strong capital to make a trade or just sign improvements for other spots.

Dave Cameron: You’re overestimating the success rate of prospects. Odds are that you get one good big leaguer out of that group.

Kole: You’ll love Bend! Summertime in Eastern Oregon is absolutely gorgeous. Will the Mariners fandom reignite back in the PNW?

Dave Cameron: It was 75 and gorgeous when we were out there for the interview, so yeah, easy to see why everyone is moving there.

Views from the 6: Bend Oregon is a long way from any MLB stadium.

Dave Cameron: So is Winston-Salem. I’m used to it.

Mark : Hahahahahaha Remember when you said Swihart was untouchable in any Hamels trade?

Dave Cameron: No, because i didn’t say that. I said that I’d trade Swihart for Hamels, but not Mookie Betts.

STiVo: I’ll give the flip-side of the advice you gave on parenting books: If you’re the kind of person who needs to know the very basics, such as if neither of you is in the medical profession, then go with a simple overview like “Eat, Sleep, Poop.” This should actually help reduce freakouts, because you will be able to focus on what matters and cut out the insignificant in many circumstances. That said, trying to learn everything about parenting before the kid comes is a fool’s errand. (Bonus: If you love data, and are interested in pregnancy itself, read “Expecting Better.”)

Dave Cameron: Could also be a good approach. I’m sure there’s no one way to do it.

Phil: Ichiro is going to be short of +60 WAR, but he seems like a sure-bet HoFer… is that more of cultural significance or people giving him credit for Japan?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get credit for Japan.

Urban: Will chats be later from Bend, or no change?

Dave Cameron: Plan is no change; I’m just going to get up earlier and go to bed earlier, which sounds pretty nice…

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out, and thanks to all of you who didn’t send poop emojis…