Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/1/15

Dave Cameron: It’s a Monday, but you’re stuck with me this week, as Dan Szymborski and I flipped days this week. You can bug Dan on Wednesday, but today, you get my hazy post-vacation musings.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll get started in about 15 minutes.

Dave Cameron: (And after I typed all that out, I forgot to actually open the queue. So now we’ll push the start time back a little bit to let you guys get some questions in while I finish this piece about the Twins.)

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this party started.

Comment From dom
Is becoming Joe Panik a best case scenario for Rob Refsnyder’s development? How likely is that to happen

Dave Cameron: Panik is a weird comparison for Refsnyder, who might actually have some power but probably is a negative defender at the position. I’d guess he’s more Kelly Johnson or something.

Comment From CruzBettsonBlackmon
is it possible that Aaron Sanchez is the new Chris Young, the pitcher who consistently outperforms his peripherals?

Dave Cameron: Nope. GB pitchers generally run higher BABIPs than average, not lower ones. Young beats FIP by being an extreme pop-up machine who generates a lot of infield flies, which are basically the equivalent of strikeouts. Power-sinker guys do not induce infield flies.

Comment From Bret
Hey Dave – with the draft approaching, teams will begin thinking about their trade positions over the next few weeks. How do the Blue Jays and Red Sox evaluate? Their records are both very bad, but they’re still close in the oddly poor AL East and both were projected to be much better pre-season, especially Boston.

Dave Cameron: I think both teams still hold at least and probably buy, given the weakness of their division. Neither team is great, but 85 wins might take that division, and it’s not impossible for either one to get hot in the second half.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
If the playoffs started today, would the Royals be the favorites in the AL?

Dave Cameron: Probably, but swap out the Rays and Twins for better teams and I’d say no.

Comment From Houzer
Just how broken in Teheran?

Dave Cameron: Teheran and Chris Tillman are great examples of why you don’t want to bet on pitchers playing the weak-contact game for too long. It dries up fast and without warning.

Comment From mtsw
Crazy trade idea: Joc Pederson for Wei Yin Chen and Bundy or Gausman (whoever you like better at this point). Dodgers get mid-rotation arm rental to fill in for Ryu and blue chip pitching prospect, Orioles get huge upgrade over current Pearce/Snider/Young/Lough corner outfield crapfest. Crazy or crazy enough to work?

Dave Cameron: Insane for the Dodgers. Chen and a broken pitching prospect might get you Jace Peterson, not Joc Pederson.

Comment From John S
Hey Dave, Eduardo Rodriguez impressed in his first start. Do you think he sticks in the Red Sox rotation and, if so, what do you expect from him this year?

Dave Cameron: They’ll give him every chance to keep pitching well. I’d expect probably more decent performances than great ones, though.

Comment From mtsw
Rangers are weirdly hanging in there. Any chance they could hang around and be in the discussion for a WC spot?

Dave Cameron: Any chance? Sure. But they’re still not a very good team, and I wouldn’t count on this lasting much longer.

Comment From Lumpy
The twins were my biggest questions. So what do you think they need to be serious? Trade? Demotion/promotions? No brainer I feel is to at least swap out Santana for polanco at ss. Also a hamels or cueto acquisition. I’d prefer a short term with cueto since we have a lot of depth in the minors that could pan out

Dave Cameron: Stay away from any of the big targets. You don’t want Cueto or Hamels or any of those guys; they’ll cost way more than the Twins should pay. Aim for the lower tier; guys who will only cost someone you don’t really care about.

Comment From Johnson
Would Pompey, Boyd, and lower level prospect like Nay or Alford be enough the net Cueto and Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Not enough for either, much less both.

Comment From maqman
How do you see the AL West ending up?

Dave Cameron: With a mediocre team winning a bad division.

Comment From Chris H
Hi Dave – Do you think there’s anything “wrong” with Yadier Molina or are we just seeing some variance with his HRs so far this year?

Dave Cameron: He’s a 30+ catcher who lost 25 pounds over the winter; I wouldn’t expect his power to ever come back.

Comment From Andrew
With Javier Baez catching fire a bit recently, what do you think the Cubs plan is for him? How soon do you think it is until we see him in the majors again?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet he’s traded in July, and whatever team trades for him promotes him right to the big leagues afterwards.

Comment From Donald
Last year, Cistulli identified Jace Peterson (along with Francisco Lindor and JP Crawford) as a rare prospect who had the top bat, discipline and fielding tools in his organization, joining guys like Heyward, Posey, Cutch, Bourn and Pedroia. Is there anything that hints whether Peterson’s future is closer to being a guy like Bourn or Pedroia, or closer to his current ZIPS projection (which is, um, bad)?

Dave Cameron: Jace Peterson is not good, and show the limitations of using the Best Tools as projections.

Comment From adam
Where do you stand on Teheran long term?

Dave Cameron: Mid-rotation starter until he breaks down.

Comment From Pinstripe Wizard
How was your vacation?

Dave Cameron: Really nice. Highly recommend Duck as the Outer Banks town to visit if you have a dog. Liberty enjoyed playing in the ocean so much she actually sprained her tail, which I didn’t know was a thing that was possible. But the town is really neat, and super dog friendly.

Dave Cameron: Also, if you live anywhere near a Duck Donuts shop (they’re expanding up the east coast), go right now and order a dozen. They’re amazing.

Dave Cameron: I might go back to Duck just for more donuts.

Comment From L. Scott
Any chance Joey Gallo gets a call-up to fill in for Beltre?

Dave Cameron: Would think they might want him to get some AAA time first.

Comment From I am the Walrus
Who has the better next 5 years…Stanton or Harper?

Dave Cameron: Harper.

Comment From FM Mood
Hey Dave, I’m about to start work at one of the big four but would love to work in baseball (or write about it) in the future. What should I focus on during my time in accounting to make this a possibility?

Dave Cameron: Focus on enjoying your accounting career and play fantasy baseball for fun; you’ll be better off.

Comment From Lurk
Your best guess: Rangers, buyers or sellers? If sellers, should they try to dump Fielder/Choo?

Dave Cameron: They’ll be holders; teams have to be really out of it to sell now.

Comment From Martha
Hi, Dave. Is Syndergaard already the Mets second best pitcher after Harvey?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Dave Cameron: DeGrom might have an argument too.

Dave Cameron: But those are the top three.

Comment From Bret
Speaking of Joe Panik, is that just a player “we” missed on in predicting success from. First round pedigree, did enough good things in the minors at a position with defensive value, but never really seemed to get on scouts and analysts radars.

Dave Cameron: Sometimes high contact/low power guys figure out how to hit for power and they become really good. Most of them don’t, though, and i don’t think anyone has figured out how to identify which ones will and which ones won’t.

Comment From Guest
Where is the best place to flag errors in the Fangraphs depth charts? (i.e. Ed Easley 1B playing time on the Cardinals)

Dave Cameron: Send Paul Swydan a note on Twitter; he’s @swydan. He manages the depth chart team.

Comment From Guest
GB pitchers also have a lower SLGBIP. As you have mentioned in the past, using a stat in isolation doesn’t tell the whole story.

Dave Cameron: That lower SLG comes entirely from allowing fewer HRs, which FIP captures. The question was does Sanchez’s profile suggest he can be a FIP-beater. The answer is still no.

Comment From Bob Loblaw
This hot streak for Texas obviously isn’t going to last, but it’s not hard to see how with the full complement of pitchers back, Texas could actually contend with this lineup… Right?…

Dave Cameron: Their lineup isn’t anything special; they have a 97 wRC+ as a team.

Comment From Guest
What will the Dodgers do when Olivera is ready?

Dave Cameron: Promote him; that’s what the Uribe trade was about, I’d imagine. Olivera/Turner/Guerrero share third base, with Turner playing some other IF spots and Guerrero also playing the OF some.

Comment From Kris
I’d say Teheran’s issues are more the near double walk rate this year than the ‘weak-contact game’ gone wrong

Dave Cameron: Career 104 mark in both FIP- and xFIP-. If he’s not posting low BABIPs, he’s pretty meh, and his BABIP this year is .316.

Comment From Dustin
By several measures, Paul Goldschmidt has been the best hitter in baseball since the beginning of 2014(OPS, wOBA, wRC+). Does he need to fire his agent, re-hire him, then fire him a second time for signing the extension that he did?

Dave Cameron: In terms of money left on the table — given what sluggers command in arbitration — this deal may be worse than Longoria’s overall.

Comment From ajgdrums7814
Any recommendations on good books dealing with financial advice?

Dave Cameron: http://www.amazon.com/Smart…

Comment From Nolan
Is Kluber on his way to best pitcher in the game right now?

Dave Cameron: Not unless he’s sneaking up on Clayton Kershaw with a lead pipe in his hand.

Comment From Guest
Does the Fangraphs projected RoS W% include consideration for strenght of schedule?

Dave Cameron: On the Playoff Odds page, yes, schedule is included.

Comment From Frank Lee Hye
That guy mush have been trolling Dodger fans with his Joc trade question, right? With that said, it is fairly obvious the Doyers will be looking for some SP at the deadline. Joc, Seager, and Urias seem to be untouchable. De Leon has impressed. Do you think he brings someone sexi back?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go lower-end. With Kershaw/Greinke, you don’t really need another frontline guy, because your #3 is only going to start one game in a five game series. You don’t need an ace.

Comment From Greg
If Baez goes what does that mean for Castro’s future with the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think they’re all that related. Can trade Baez for help now, then figure out what to do with Castro this winter.

Comment From Warrior
Dave, should the Red Sox be running Rusney Castillo out there all year to see what they have in him? Or platooning him to give him the best change to post decent numbers and become a tradeable asset?

Dave Cameron: They didn’t give him $70 million to make him a trade chip; he’ll be a starting OF there for years to come, and should probably be playing everyday.

Comment From L. Scott
What’s a good website to see Pitcher vs. Batter stats? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Don’t do it. They’re not worth anything.

Comment From Jerry
What would you do with Kyle Schwarber were you the Cubs? Seems like the bat is ready right now, and the Cubs have a need in LF, but they seem to be committed to keeping him a catcher for the time being.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably just convert him to OF now, see how he does, and think about making him a Napoli-type if they’re really convinced he can catch a little bit in the big leagues down the line.

Comment From Haaaank
Dave, my girlfriend is at Wake Forest for the next couple weeks — any highlights of Winston-Salem she should try to get to?

Dave Cameron: She should spend some time wandering around Old Salem at least once, if she’s at all into history. Hanging Rock State Park has some really cool hikes if she has a car.

Comment From hscer
…so how much weight did you gain on vacation then 😛

Dave Cameron: Only two pounds, surprisingly. We did pretty well with actual meals, eating a lot of seafood and low-calorie proteins for breakfast and lunch. But between the donuts and the crazy amount of good ice cream in that area, we doubled up on dessert every day. It was great.

Comment From dom
Is it safe to assume that if a Scott Boras client signs an pre-FA extension, it will be a bad deal for the team? Andrus comes to mind, trying to think of others

Dave Cameron: No, that’s too broad of a brush to paint with. Weaver overruled Boras and took a below-market deal to re-sign with the Angels.

Comment From Stever
Noticed that the Dodgers’ data research job opening requires a PHD from a prestigious university. Is this the norm throughout baseball, or Friedman being Friedman?

Dave Cameron: Teams are getting pickier. There’s so much supply of talent willing to work for next-to-nothing in baseball that they can raise the bar on what they’re looking rather than drive costs down any further.

Comment From neal
ia the Homer Bailey contract one of the worst in baseball now?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From PatoSan
Dustin Pedroia is on pace for another 4 win season. If he was a free agent as a 32 year old this winter, would he get something similar to the 6/84 left on his contract?

Dave Cameron: More.

Comment From Forsyth
We took our pups to the beach once. They swam in the ocean and ended up drinking a bunch of ocean water while swimming/playing fetch. Diarrhea the whole way home. Hope Liberty didn’t have the same outcome.

Dave Cameron: Nope, we avoided that problem. But she was pretty pitiful the last day with her sprained tail. Gotta be frustrating to be in pain and want to lie down but lying down causes more pain.

Comment From Warrior
Does Farrell make it to the all star break as manager in Boston?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think they’re going to blame him for things that aren’t in his control. He can’t make Hanley Ramirez know how to play the outfield.

Comment From Forsyth
Re: “more decent than great outings” for Eduardo Rodriguez. Is that a product of this being his first year, and expecting some adjustments, or do you see him as more of a 4/5 than a 2/3?

Dave Cameron: He strikes me as a guy who is always going to have some significant platoon splits. Probably going to need to develop his change-up more to become more than a solid mid-to-backend guy.

Comment From mtsw
Is any “financial advisor” company with enough money to advertise on TV sort of inherently likely a ripoff/borderline scam?

Dave Cameron: It doesn’t mean they absolutely are a ripoff, but you know that advertising budget isn’t coming out of their profits, so it’s most likely coming in the form of higher fees to you.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
Care to give us a prediction what Baez is traded for?

Dave Cameron: Wild guess: I’ll say he ends up in Philly as part of a Hamels deal.

Comment From Hi Erix
Maybe Goldschmidt should hold out during spring training like all the football players who want more money. Why does that happen in football and not in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Baseball has guaranteed contracts, football doesn’t. That goes both ways; it’s also why football teams can cut guys without owing their future salaries while baseball teams cannot.

Comment From Scrapper
Would Starlin Castro for Noah Syndergaard make sense for both teams? Who would be more likely to say no to that deal?

Dave Cameron: Thor is worth much more than Castro.

Comment From JP
Are we sure Cano’s contract isn’t on its way to being the worst in baseball?

Dave Cameron: It was always going to end badly. I don’t think he’s done yet, though.

Comment From Eager Seager Beaver
What’s the ETA on Seager coming up for the Dodgers? Does the Uribe trade potentially accelerate it, or no?

Dave Cameron: Seager is a 2016 guy. Uribe cleared room for Olivera.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Ignoring costs, would you rather have Correa or Buxton in your system right now?

Dave Cameron: Correa.

Comment From a eskpert
Would you, as a pitcher (yourself, not MLB pitcher Dave Cameron), rather face Chris Davis/Giancarlo Stanton or some generic fast middle infielder that makes contact?

Dave Cameron: The slap hitter; less likely that 100+ mph comes right back at my face.

Comment From Zonk
What rookie would you rather have? Kris Bryant or Joc Pedersen?

Dave Cameron: Bryant, by a good margin.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me today; have some more work to do before recording the podcast. Szym will be here on Wednesday and I’ll be back to normal Wednesday chat schedule next week.