Checking in on Last Year’s First-Round Pitchers

Last week, I took a look at some of the hitters taken in the early portion of the first round of last year’s amateur draft. Today, I’m going to repeat this exercise for pitchers, and examine the first eight arms taken in last year’s first round. I’m going to skip over last year’s first-overall pick, Brady Aiken, who wound up not signing with the Houston Astros due to a dispute centered around an issue with his elbow.

At this point, most of these players have something close to a year’s worth of games under their belts. Obviously, all these players are very early on in their respective careers, and still have plenty of developing left to do. Their futures are far from set in stone. Still, their stats from the last calendar year should be able to give us a general sense of how good they are now and, by extension, how good they might ultimately become.

Tyler Kolek, RHP (Profile)
Team: Miami Marlins   Age: 19
Stats: 4.65 ERA, 4.28 FIP between R, A

Kolek came with a lot of hype when the Marlins selected him seconf overall. He was tall, athletic, his fastball touched 100 and he had an impressive curveball, as well. Yet, despite his blazing stuff, he’s endured a rough transition to pro ball. Kolek held his own in Rookie-ball last year, where he pitched to a 3.92 FIP with an 18% strikeout rate. However, he’s really scuffled this year following a promotion to Low-A.

The most disappointing part of Kolek’s 2015 has been his lack of strikeouts. His strikeout rate currently sits at 16% — well below the South Atlantic League average of 20%. His 12% walk rate is also worse than his league’s average. At 19, there’s still plenty of time for Kolek’s performance to catch up with his stuff, but the early returns haven’t been what many had hoped for.

Carlos Rodon, LHP (Profile)
Team: Chicago White Sox   Age: 22
Stats: 3.45 ERA, 3.79 FIP in MLB

At the time of last year’s draft, Rodon was more polished than most pitchers in the draft class, which led many to believe he was nearly big-league ready. Less than a year later, those prophesies have been fulfilled, as he’s currently a member of the White Sox rotation.

Rodon dominated in the minor leagues, striking out a remarkable 34% of opposing batters, while only walking 11%. Yet, despite his minor-league performance, Rodon’s been a little shaky in his 28 innings with the big club. The biggest culprit has easily been his unacceptable 15% walk rate. Rondon’s still working out some of the kinks in his game, but he’s contributing in the major leagues, which puts him ahead of most of last year’s draft picks.

Aaron Nola, RHP (Profile)
Team: Philadelphia Phillies   Age: 22
Stats: 2.33 ERA, 3.47 FIP between A+, AA

The Phillies plucked Nola out of LSU’s rotation, and immediately put him on the fast track. He started out in High-A, where he struck out an impressive 25% of batters faced, while only walking 4%. Then, after a mere 31 innings, the Phillies bumped him to Double-A, where he was slightly less dominant. Although he had a sparkling 2.63 ERA over five Double-A starts, his strikeout rate plummeted to 15%.

Nola returned to Double-A to open 2015, and has once again been lights-out. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 21%, and he’s hardly walked anyone. Nola will be in the majors sooner rather than later, and based on his minor-league track record, he seems to have a bright future ahead of him.

Kyle Freeland, LHP (Profile)
Team: Colarado Rockies   Age: 22
Stats: 1.43 ERA, 3.31 FIP between R, A

Although he was a college arm, the Rockies opted to take things slow with Freeland in his draft year. They started him out in Rookie-ball, before sending him to Low-A to finish out the year. Freeland pitched very well at both stops, but for a pitcher of his caliber facing guys only a year or so removed from high school, anything less would have been a disappointment.

Many had concerns about Freeland’s health at the time of the draft. Although he was technically healthy, he already had one Tommy John surgery under his belt, and his mechanics led many to believe that more injuries were in his future. Turns out, they were right. Freeland’s missed the entire first month of the season with a shoulder issue, and is currently rehabbing in extended spring training. This isn’t to say he’s a failed prospect, of course, but health seems like it could be an issue for him going forward.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP (Profile)
Team: Toronto Blue Jays   Age: 22
Stats: 7.71 ERA, 3.70 FIP at A+

Hoffman was arguably the most highly touted amateur arm heading into 2014, but a Tommy John surgery understandably caused his draft stock to plummet. Nonetheless, the Blue Jays decided they’d bet on a smooth recovery from Hoffman, and took him with the ninth-overall pick.

Hoffman just returned to the mound a couple of weeks ago, so his nine innings of work aren’t all that revealing. But all looks good based on what we’ve seen so far. His strikeout (16%) and walk (2%) numbers have been respectable — and, most importantly, he’s touching 99 mph again.

Kodi Medeiros, LHP (Profile)
Team: Milwaukee Brewers   Age: 19
Stats: 5.06 ERA, 3.34 FIP between R, A

Medeiros got off to a rocky start in Rookie-ball last year. In nine games, he pitched to a 7.13 ERA and walked 14% of opposing batters. However, things weren’t nearly as bad as they seemed. Yes, he walked more than his fair share of hitters, but according to my KATOH research, a pitcher’s walks have no predictive value for innings thrown in Rookie-ball. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate — a more predictive metric — was on point at 28%.

Despite his shaky debut, the Brewers started Medeiros in full-season ball this year, and his results suggest he was up for the challenge. He’s continued to strike out batters at a near-30% clip, while simultaneously cutting his walk rate to 10%. He’s obviously still years away from pitching in Milwaukee, but the early returns have been good for the 19-year-old.

Tyler Beede, RHP (Profile)
Team: San Francisco Giants   Age: 22
Stats: 2.39 ERA, 3.30 FIP between R, A-, A+

The Giants took things slowly with Beede last year. Although he had pitched reasonably well in the SEC, they had him finish out his draft year in short-season ball. He made four starts in Rookie-ball before finishing up with two starts in short-season A.

Beede pitched to a strong 2.96 FIP in his six starts last year, which prompted the Giants to push him to High-A. He’s taken pretty well to the challenge so far. In eight starts, he’s posted a 3.40 FIP on the strength of a 4% walk rate. On the downside, Beede has struck out just 17% of opposing batters. Strikeouts tend to be a better predictor than walks for future success, so Beede’s inability to miss bats will be something to monitor.

Sean Newcomb, LHP (Profile)
Team: Los Angeles Angels   Age: 22
Stats: 2.91 ERA, 3.28 FIP between R, A, A+

Like Beede, Newcomb’s another college arm who’s being brought along a little slowly. But unlike Beede, Newcomb’s pro debut didn’t go so well. In six starts between Rookie-ball and Low-A, he pitched to a 5.03 ERA and a 3.52 FIP.

Newcomb returned to Low-A in 2015, and was extremely dominant. In seven starts, he struck out nearly one-third of opposing batters on his way to a 2.99 FIP. He’s since moved on to High-A, where he’s been merely good (3.67 FIP) in his first three starts. The one red flag for Newcomb is his walk rate, which sits at 14% for the 2015 season. However, Newcomb was a three-sport athlete in high school, so it’s understandable that his command might still be a work in progress.