Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/2/14

Dave Cameron: Today’s chat will be a little abbreviated, as I’m traveling this afternoon, but I’ll try to get through as many questions as I can before I have to run.

Dave Cameron: Reminder: I’m not a fantasy guy, and I don’t know if you should trade three mediocre players for one big named guy.

Comment From person hscer
I mostly agreed with the Harper/Span/Espinosa piece, but Espinosa should get at least some starts vs. LHP. Career wRC+ vs. LHP: Espinosa 118 (416 PA), Span 102 (1113 PA)

Dave Cameron: Of course. Nothing wrong with playing Espinosa a few days per week.

Comment From AJ
Hey Dave. How much could the ChiSox realistically get in returns for Alexei, Beckham, Viciedo, and Danks? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: I think Ramirez will get them a decent prospect, Beckham a flyer, and Viciedo and Danks are worthless.

Comment From Jon
Is Altuve actually good now?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably go with above average. Future value might depend on his defense, which UZR hates. Astros shifting could be throwing things off there, though.

Comment From Brett
Jake Arrieta – what’s going on here?

Dave Cameron: Looks like a guy who figured out how to throw good stuff for strikes. Don’t want to bet on a guy just finding command overnight, but it happens sometimes.

Comment From Ben
Dave, what do you make of Xander Bogaerts’ recent slump? Cause for concern or just rookie growing pains?

Dave Cameron: He’s 21.

Dave Cameron: He’s still got all the tools to be a star.

Comment From SR
Shoudl the Pirates be aggressive in dealing prospects at the deadline or are they better off keeping their fingers crossed that Volquez, Locke and Worley can continue to be serviceable back of the rotation guys?

Dave Cameron: There’s a big area between stick with Vance Worley and be aggressive dealing prospects. Take on some money and get A.J. Burnett back, for instance.

Comment From Alex
do you think the mets will have to rebuild again before they even compete?

Dave Cameron: It’s not really rebuilding again if you never finished rebuilding in the first place. They’re in the process of rebuilding. That process isn’t over yet.

Comment From Guest
NL/AL ROY awards go to?

Dave Cameron: Tanaka and Hamilton.

Comment From Ilan
What will the Rockies do with their OF when Cuddyer/CarGo comes back? Who is the odd man out, Stubbs?

Dave Cameron: I’d call those ifs rather than whens. Rockies season is basically over, so no need to rush back injured guys.

Comment From Ben
What is your opinion on teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, who are rumored to be willing to incur the maximum penalties for this year’s international prospect signing period? Good or bad strategy?

Dave Cameron: The system incentivizes teams to do just that. They’re just following the logical path set out by the rewards.

Comment From WillieBoy
Are there Park Factors somewhere on the Fangraphs site? I’ve heard mention of them, but haven’t found them. Could you do me a kindness and point me there?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/gu…

Comment From Ken
Noah Syndergaard – bust or growing pains?

Dave Cameron: Pitching prospect in Vegas = ignore the results.

Comment From _David_
Has your opinion about the idea of offering Kyle Seager an extension changed at all?

Dave Cameron: Not really. His skillset doesn’t do very well in arbitration.

Comment From Guest
Hey Dave – with the lack of any real ‘close’ OF prospects for the White Sox, might they be better holding on to Viciedo to see if anything improves?

Dave Cameron: Should a homeless person horde beanie babies in case that fad returns?

Comment From Douglas
The Brewers have the 2nd best record in baseball, but only the 20th best rosW%. What is driving that disconnect?

Dave Cameron: They’ve played like a .524 team, not a .600 team. http://www.fangraphs.com/de…

Comment From _David_
Is Chris Young’s secret throwing high but on a downward plane? What if other tall/over the top pitchers tried that, but threw 7mph faster?

Dave Cameron: They’d probably be really good. Now you just need to find a bunch of 6’10 pitchers with 95 mph fastballs, and you’re all set.

Comment From Shawn
James Shields- are all the innings catching up to him? Just a rough patch or the start of the decline?

Dave Cameron: He’s 32 and his peripherals started going the wrong way last year. This looks like decline.

Comment From Chris
So the Mariners keep winning. How?

Dave Cameron: Kyle Seager is playing like a +6 WAR guy and their bullpen is pitching way over its heads. Neither will continue.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Does your caveat about not knowing if someone “should trade three mediocre players for one big named guy” mean that Luhnow is not allowed to ask questions in this chat?

Dave Cameron: You’re giving him too much credit; he wouldn’t offer up three players in the same deal. Limit one per customer when shopping in Houston.

Comment From Jeff
Strange, World Cup inspired question. As someone who is relatively soccer ignorant, I was surprised a team could play to a draw over 60 minutes being down a man. A friend and I agree that in basketball, hockey and football, being down a man for half the game would basically reduce your chances of winning to near zero. What do you think for baseball? Especially considering that fewer players could actually be some advantage when batting.

Dave Cameron: Seems to me that it’s mostly about the percentage of necessary space that player covers that can’t be covered by another player. In basketball, you’re hosed because that leaves another player unguarded on defense at all times, and four can’t cover five. In soccer and probably baseball, you could shift the defensive alignment enough that the extra space is somewhat limited. Two outfielders would be a problem, of course, but having an RCF and an LCF behind a GB pitcher might not be a total disaster.

Comment From Josh in DC
When a team like the Nationals has a difficult decision to make about which players should start and which should rest, how much does the GM weigh in on that decision? Or is it just up to the manager?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure it’s a collaborative process, though the manager probably gets the most say.

Comment From Ben
What kind of error bars do you mentally put on a single season UZR?

Dave Cameron: +/- five runs.

Comment From Dan McGRAWWW
I suppose there is no way to determine a “clutch” value for players, is there?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

Comment From alex
Will you guys add RA9 to leaderboards and player pages?

Dave Cameron: Yep. It’s on the to-do list.

Comment From Catoblepas
Should Boston deal Lester? Seems increasingly unlikely they’ll compete this year, even with a relatively small gap, because of how many teams are crammed into it. What could they get for him? How likely is it that they re-sign him if they don’t trade him, and that the contract doesn’t look like an abomination in 2016?

Dave Cameron: I think the recent talk of re-engaging on an extension was because they’re trying to figure this out themselves. If they feel they can’t extend, they’ll trade him. The problem is that he’ll be behind both Price and Samardzija on the pecking order for most teams. Might actually be a decent fit for Toronto, who seems to prefer a rental, and BOS probably wouldn’t have a problem trading a rental within the division.

Comment From Guest
what is the best stat to use to judge a team’s offense- runs scored, run differential or something else?

Dave Cameron: wRC+.

Comment From Dave
Most people seem to doubt that the reds are a playoff team this year, but isn’t that rotation one of if not potentially the best in baseball?

Dave Cameron: No, it’s not even really close to the best.

Comment From Ryan
Tell me something happy about the Cubs, please.

Dave Cameron: Your pitching is quite good and Kris Bryant is awesome.

Comment From Stephen
Will Adrian Beltre be available at the trade deadline? Would he be a fit with the Cardinals?

Dave Cameron: I doubt Texas trades him.

Comment From Jason
You tweeted last week that you feel bad for anyone trying to get the 2nd wild card and playing the Angels, sticking to that with a 1 game playoff w/ Felix? M’s have the best record in baseball the past 2.5 months.

Dave Cameron: It’s humorous how people assume that the wild card teams have time to set their rotations so that their ace pitches in the wild card game. It almost never happens that way, especially in a crowded race. Look back at the guys who have started previous WC games. It’s full of guys like Joe Saunders.

Comment From atoms
Why is 2014 Chris Davis so much worse than 2013 Chris Davis? Were his improvements in 2013 not legit or sustainable?

Dave Cameron: They are called career years for a reason.

Comment From Jacob
Hypothetical example: A true 5 WAR player has a fantastic 2 months and accumulates 3 WAR, while a true 4 WAR player has a dreadful start and is at 0. Going forward which player would you take for ROS? Bet on regression or talent baselines?

Dave Cameron: If a +4 WAR player is replacement level for two months, then after those two months, you wouldn’t think of him as a +4 WAR player anymore.

Dave Cameron: The mean you regress to includes the most recent data, not what you thought the mean was two months ago.

Comment From Derek
How many wins would having MGL or Tango a teams bench be worth

Dave Cameron: Probably negative wins, due to all the forfeits from players getting in fights with MGL during the games.

Dave Cameron: Sorry, Cover It Live took a dive for a few minutes.

Comment From David
Dave, has the Cubs asking price scared teams off Jeff Samardzja?

Dave Cameron: No reason to think that’s true. It’s July 2nd. Most big targets don’t get traded in June.

Comment From Marc
Any truth to what Ortiz said about why the Cubs are no good?

Dave Cameron: No one should care what David Ortiz thinks about anything besides hitting a baseball, really.

Comment From Steven Souza, Jr.
There’s no chance Denard Span finishes 2014 as a National… is there??

Dave Cameron: Of course there is. He’s a good player on a contender, and they’re better with him than without him.

Comment From Jays fan
Edwin Encarnacion is playing left field today…should be interesting!

Dave Cameron: Guess we’ll have to start calling him E7 now.

Comment From Los
I commented on your article yesterday re: Harper and was hoping to het your opinion. Could he catch in the big leagues this year if the bench called the games?

Dave Cameron: No. He’s never going to catch again.

Comment From Brules Rules
J.D. Martinez, complete fluke, better than before, or Bautista/Encarnacion redux?

Dave Cameron: Marlon Byrd 2.0. Real improvement, but the swing-as-hard-as-possible-at-everything approach has limited upside.

Comment From Pennsy
If the x axis is WAR and the y axis is ATTRACTIVENESS TO POTENTIAL SEXUAL PARTNER is there anybody else with Anthony Rendon in the upper right quadrant?

Dave Cameron: Congratulations, you’re hired to write for NotGraphs.

Comment From Guest
Are ridiculous trade proposals the norm or do the other GMs find Luhnow annoying?

Dave Cameron: This is standard operating procedure for some teams. Others find it annoying.

Comment From Guest #1
But do you think that Luhnow is alone in offering those crazy deals, or do you think they all do that?

Dave Cameron: Not all, but more than just him. I’ve heard some hilarious offers over the years. Jim Bowden was famous for making ridiculous demands.

Dave Cameron: Mike Rizzo does this too, only people say yes when he offers them, which no one understands.

Comment From John
What are your career expectations for Joey Gallo?

Dave Cameron: I know Chris Davis seems like a lazy comparison because of the Texas connection, but he’s the closest thing I can think of.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Does Price become the first $200M pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Clayton Kershaw says hello.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Beltre a HoFer for you?

Dave Cameron: Yes. And I’ll be one of the loudest supporters of his cause until he gets in.

Dave Cameron: This is hilarious. @CoverItLive just tweeted this out: CoveritLive @coveritlive
Have some tough #fantasyBB Questions? Join the @fangraphs Live Chat with @DCameronFG now bit.ly/1kep91B

Dave Cameron: High quality troll job there, @coveritlive.

Comment From Mikey
Granderson up to a 121 wRC+… still dont like the deal but maybe Mets fan can finally step off the ledge thinking he was cooked after a 1-2 month sample of poor play.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s a fun reminder that we basically can never tell when a player is “done” or not. Not sure any player in history has looked more useless than April Curtis Granderson, and then he’s a beast ever since. We cannot watch a guy suck for a month and determine that he’s lost his skills forever. We can’t do it.

Comment From Aaron (UK)
Presumably Rizzo’s first offer is even worse, to let the anchoring effect set in? “Lombardozzi for Fister?” “No, we need much more.” “OK then, Ray as well.” “Still no.” “Go on then, you can have Krol too.” “Done.”

Dave Cameron: The Tigers were actually the one pushing that deal. Believe it or not, the Tigers asked for more than they got, the Nationals turned them down, and the Tigers reduced their ask in order to get the deal done. It’s all so strange.

Comment From Dr. Koothrappali
Billy Beane needs to go big this month and make one of his early 2000s “F—ing A” type trades. Any ideas on a big splash? He won’t give up Russell so they’re out on Price, but perhaps Zobrist? Murphy?

Dave Cameron: They will never have another chance to win the WS like they do this year. You can find another Addison Russell. Go for broke, Billy.

Comment From Sweet Lou
Re: your answer re: Tigers/Nats deal, do you know what the Tigers originally asked for, before settling on Ray/Krol/Lombardozzi?

Dave Cameron: Yep. It still would have been a bad deal for Detroit.

Comment From (not that) James
You (rightfully) recommend we trust projections. Is there any player for whom you think the ROS projections are wrong, for whatever reason? Like maybe the player (Arrieta, for instance) has shown real improvement that the projections just haven’t picked up on yet.

Dave Cameron: J.D. Martinez, Marlon Byrd, Zach Duke.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I really have to run now. Enjoy your 4th of July, everyone, and we’ll do this again next Wednesday.