Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/23/14

Dave Cameron: A week and a day until the trade deadline, so I’m guessing these next two chats will be heavily driven by trade rumors/questions/suggestions. Normally, I prefer to avoid crazy trade proposals, but for the next couple of weeks, we’ll indulge everyone’s desire to make fake trades. Try to maintain some semblance of logic, however.

Dave Cameron: Non-trade questions are still allowed too, of course.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open and we’ll start chatting in about 20 minutes.

Comment From Guest
How different is the Rockies Front Office by opening day 2015?

Dave Cameron: Entirely different, I think. We haven’t had much front office turnover lately, but I think we’re going to see a bunch of house cleanings this winter. Arizona, Colorado, and San Diego are all likely to bring in new people, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Ruben Amaro got canned in Philly either.

Comment From Tradey Tradestein
Biggest name to be moved at the deadline will be?

Dave Cameron: If the Rays keep winning, maybe Chris Denorfia.

Dave Cameron: Though I think the Rays will probably cool off enough to justify moving Price.

Comment From kyle
Anthony Gose ROS projections?

Dave Cameron: .Bad/.Awful/.Sucky

Dave Cameron: Seriously, he’s lousy.

Comment From Kevin Towers
How close was AJ Pollock to making your trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Not at all close.

Comment From Guest
How much of Tulo’s trade value is hurt now that he got hurt?

Dave Cameron: Well, it doesn’t help, but I doubt it would move things much. He’s always been injury prone, and this doesn’t seem like a catastrophic injury.

Comment From Rays fan
An article about Kiermayer came out today. What is his offensive upside? Maybe a .330 to .340 woba? He’s essentially Desmond Jennings. Agree?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take the under.

Comment From Evan
What is a realistic deal that the Dodgers probably make?

Dave Cameron: I think if anyone is going to trade for Cole Hamels, it’s going to be them.

Comment From Matthew
Is Jacob deGrom a legitimate NLROY candidate? His season has been pretty impressive so far.

Dave Cameron: Billy Hamilton says hello.

Comment From Kevin Towers
How big a mistake am I making not being more of a seller this year? What are the odds that we make the playoffs in 2015?

Dave Cameron: They should absolutely move guys like Ziegler, but I’m okay with not letting a lame duck GM make too many huge moves. He’s getting fired in a few months, so why let him make franchise altering decisions?

Comment From B.G.
I just camped through a thunderstorm; could you make my day and tell us a good roadmap to writing for Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: Submit stuff to the community blog. If it’s good, you’ll catch our attention. We’ve hired a bunch of guys who showed that they could write there.

Comment From Lars
Hey Dave, what team is most likely to take Colon off the Mets hands without making them pay any of his salary?

Dave Cameron: That answer is going to be the Dodgers for almost every player, I’d think.

Comment From Jake Peavy
Where will I end up playing (preferably somewhere warm)?

Dave Cameron: SFG or STL.

Comment From Matthew
Was any consideration given to Jon Niese in the trade value series? His contract is great and his performance has been good this season, but is he just not good enough for the honorable mentions?

Dave Cameron: Pitchers with history of arm problems have to be really great to show up on that list. Niese is good, not great.

Comment From Jon
Why don’t Strasburg’s conventional stats ever catch up with his peripherals or advanced metrics? Do we still expect them to, or is there something he’s not good enough at that is causing this discrepancy?

Dave Cameron: He’s not good at stranding runners. There’s some evidence that some guys struggle with this over their careers, but it also goes away sometimes. Hard to know whether it will continue or not.

Comment From Brendan Miller
Is Brian Dozier pretty much done at this point? Seems like he’s run out of gas at the plate.

Dave Cameron: wRC+ by month: 124, 104, 130, 104. I think you may be overreacting just a little.

Comment From jocephus
is oscar required for Stl to get price? (assuming he is available)

Dave Cameron: Probably. As Rays keep winning, cost goes up, because reward of not trading him is higher.

Comment From Paul
What do you think of the strategy of a team with very strong playoff odds unloading the farm for someone like Price or Stanton and then turning around this winter and trading him? I think it’s possible the return over the winter, with more suitors in play, could be at least close to what you’d give up at the deadline. I can’t think of a case where this has actually happened… why is that? If anyone were going to do it, I’d pick Billy Beane. Maybe he’ll move Shark this winter.

Dave Cameron: More suitors with more options available to them. Prices are lower in the off-season. You wouldn’t recoup most of your losses, and it’s not great PR to acquire someone like that and then trade him away.

Comment From 21_22
why are measures of variability not more widely promoted in sabr stats? couldnt it make WAR much more palatable if it was widely known how much variability there was each season? something like saying a 2 WAR true talent player has a 68% chance of anywhere from a 1-3 WAR season (just guesses)

Dave Cameron: People like simplicity. Can you think of anywhere else in life where expectation is given to you as a range rather than an average?

Comment From alex
I’m thinking something like Colon for Nick Franklin? Why would either team say no?

Dave Cameron: The Mariners would say no because Nick Franklin is worth more than Bartolo Colon.

Comment From Tom
No matter how many times I think about it- I can’t get past the very simple fact that the Yankees will be the only team to get Cliff Lee. The Yanks are desperate and need to take a chance. The Phils will take any mid-level prospect as long as the Yanks take the salary. No other team will take on that salary dump. (Dodgers don’t need Lee). How is he NOT a Yankee in a week?

Dave Cameron: The Yankees aren’t desperate. They are making exactly the kinds of moves that a WC contender should be making; smart, measured, minor upgrades at low costs.

Comment From Barry
Dave, when comparing two offensive players, which stat is better used for comparing them: wOBA or wRC+?

Dave Cameron: wRC+ is park and league adjusted, wOBA is not.

Comment From Dan
Does David Price to the Cubs make sense? His comments about winning a WS in Chicago stroke that fire–but would Theo want to give up his bats?

Dave Cameron: No reason for the Cubs to trade for Price. If he wants to play there, he can wait until he’s a free agent and just sign with them then.

Comment From Guest
Which season is more legit? Garrett Richards or Anthony Rizzo

Dave Cameron: Both, but Rizzo if I’m forced to pick.

Comment From Sam
If they were able, would the Yankees give a QO to Chase Headley? Would they want him back at 1/15M?

Dave Cameron: Probably not.

Comment From Guest
Do you think Toronto is going to offer Melky the QO?

Dave Cameron: No. I think the days of marginal players getting and declining the QO are coming to an end.

Comment From Dirty Frank
Tai Walker, Brandon Maurer, Dustin Ackley for Starling Marte. Who says, “This is stupid. You’re trade proposal is really, really dumb. Please hang up now.”

Dave Cameron: The Pirates.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Assuming the White Sox picked up a substantial portion of Danks’ contract(60-75%), what is a reasonable return? If there are more teams interested than just NYY. could they approach last year’s Peavy deal as an absolute ceiling?

Dave Cameron: John Danks is bad. He’s not worth anything, even if the White Sox pick up almost all of the contract.

Comment From Shawn
Do you give any merit to a player is better in one lineup spot than another? As a braves fan, for instance, Tommy La Stella is batting .350ish in over 100 ab in the 7th spot, and is 1-20ish batting second. Bj upton has been his most consistent as a brave once he was our leadoff hitter. Is this just random variation in a SSS, or does a change in approach have a legit effect?

Dave Cameron: Completely meaningless.

Comment From Dewey
Phillies can right the ship in ____ years.

Dave Cameron: Three years after they hire someone who knows what they are doing.

Comment From Greg
How do I explain to someone that they shouldn’t be expected to hit any better than their true talent on a day where they took extra BP and changed their swing?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we actually know that is true.

Comment From UkMsFan
The Rays want either Walker or Peterson as part of a deal for Price. Which one would you want to hold onto if you were Jack Zduriencik ?

Dave Cameron: Both are overrated, but I wouldn’t be that interested in trading for Price.

Comment From Aaron
Your take on Kevin Kiermaier?

Dave Cameron: Don’t buy the power long term, but think he could be a good solid +2 to +3 WAR guy.

Comment From Jon
If the Nats and O’s share a market (controlled by the O’s), how do the O’s get a competitive balance pick and the Nats do not?

Dave Cameron: Didn’t the Tigers get a competitive balance pick last year? The whole system is dumb.

Comment From Will
Where do you rank Chris Sale among AL pitchers? Second to King Felix?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, with Darvish in the mix too.

Comment From Dirty Frank
A lot of fans use/cite the RBI stat. If I did, I’d also want to know what’s a player’s RBI per RBI opportunity was. Is that a dumb thing to want to know? And if not, is there a FG stat that is similar?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s not a dumb thing to want to know. However, there’s no need to limit yourself to the definition of just an RBI, since the question you’re essentially asking is how well does a player do when he has opportunities to move baserunners along. Read up on RE24, which credits batters for exactly that, and not just in RBI opportunities.

Comment From Old Lefty
What can be done to rectify the trend of team’s aligning their defenders based on the hitter’s demonstrated batted ball tendencies? It just doesn’t seem fair.

Dave Cameron: The anti-shift sentiment is almost entirely born out of an “I don’t like change” mentality. People reflexively dislike things that are different, even if they are better.

Comment From Xolo
The Padres are calling up Jeff Francoeur but aren’t sure if they should trade Benoit. Can you say something reassuring to Padres fans?

Dave Cameron: The people in charge won’t be in charge in a few months.

Comment From THE average sports fan
5 losses in a row for the Reds. A lineup that is a mess. Is there anything Jocketty can do? Or is the price of stars and scrubs team building?

Dave Cameron: When you have no depth, and a few players get hurt, it’s a real problem.

Comment From mmarsden
Can I get your thoughts on the Brady Aiken/Astros situation?

Dave Cameron: Everyone lost.

Comment From Tom
Could the Cardinals’ benching of Taveras and bullpening of Miller mean that they are likely on their way to Tampa Bay?

Dave Cameron: You generally don’t bench young kids if you’re trying to trade them.

Dave Cameron: It more likely means that they recognize that both players are not very good right now.

Comment From Guest
Doesn’t it make much more sense for the Ms to be targeting pieces like Colon, Willingham and Stubbs than players like Price and Kemp?

Dave Cameron: Yes, though I’d probably go more for Ruggiano than Willingham.

Comment From Rated Rookie
How likely do you think a Price (and Zobrist) for Taveras plus others trade is? It fits with Friedman’s philosophy but does it fit Mozeiliak’s?

Dave Cameron: I think it could happen. Taveras is more of a TB kind of guy than an STL kind of guy.

Comment From TradeFiend
Chance Colorado moves Cargo? Know it’s been talked about endlessly, but with Tulo’s injury do you think they sell?

Dave Cameron: This winter, maybe. Not this week.

Comment From Xolo
What do you think Headley gets this offseason now that he’s no longer attached to a draft pick?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to have to take a one year deal to try and rebuild his value somewhere. If he finishes strong in NY, maybe it’s with the Yankees.

Comment From Guest
What do you think of the Blue Jays decision to break in SP prospects like Stroman and Sanchez from the bullpen

Dave Cameron: It makes sense, especially given that Aaron Sanchez is terrible.

Comment From Ben
Edwin Jackson, Starlin Castro, Josh Vitters for Andre Ethier, Cory Seager, Julio Urias, Zach Lee. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers would laugh at you.

Comment From Josh
Should the Orioles figure out a way to acquire Cliff Lee?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. That’s a lot of money for a pitcher with an arm problem.

Comment From Tim
Dave, I know you had Mike Trout as the highest trade value and I think you had Albert Pujols as the lowest. What if you combined both contracts and both players? Are the combined contracts a good deal or a bad deal for the Angels?

Dave Cameron: Trout has more positive value than Pujols has negative value. But it’s close, actually.

Comment From J6takish
What do you think carson is doing right at this exact second?

Dave Cameron: Taking a nap.

Comment From RK
Think Moore survives the GM turnover if they miss the playoffs? That would be baffling to me.

Dave Cameron: He should have been fired years ago. I’ve given up on thinking the Royals will figure out they need a new person in charge.

Comment From Mike
Does Cliff Lee get traded by July 31st? August 31st? Or offseason?

Dave Cameron: No reason to trade him next week; let him rebuild his value, deal him in August.

Comment From person hscer
how many starting pitchers in MLB would you allow to face more than 18 batters in a Wild Card game?

Dave Cameron: Kershaw, maybe. Felix, if he was at like 60 pitches or something. That’s about it.

Comment From Matt
If you had the chance to be a MLB General Manager, would you rather take over a small market team with a tighter budget (think KC), a mid-market team (Atlanta), or a large market team (Dodgers)?

Dave Cameron: Mid-market. Enough money to try and win, not so much that I had to deal with unreasonable expectations.

Comment From Brett Gardner
How significant is the implied threat by Casey Close that he might steer clients away from the Astros? It seems like the market is the market and he is under a fiduciary duty to do what is best for his clients, and not his ego. I suppose he could argue that they might wrong his clients, but money has to be the prime factor here right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s not going to talk a client into taking less money just because he doesn’t get along with Jeff Lunow. But he can easily advise clients that it’s not a good place to play, and help them come to the conclusion that they don’t want to even consider going to Houston.

Comment From Concerned Adrian Beltre Owner
There’s no chance that Adrian Beltre gets traded, right?

Dave Cameron: Seems like it.

Comment From Shin-Soo Choo
Think I get shut down before the season ends?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Comment From Zach
Jeff Sullivan for Jonah Keri: who says no?

Dave Cameron: We can’t afford Jonah’s poutine budget.

Comment From Rick
If Tanaka hadn’t been injured, would he have made your Top 50 tradeable assets?

Dave Cameron: No. That contract sucks. If he’s good, he gets to become a free agent again in a few years. If he’s bad or injured, they’re on the hook for six more years.

Comment From Mike
How many Phillies get moved before July 31st?

Dave Cameron: Burnett, Byrd, maybe Papelbon and Bastardo. I’d say four or five.

Comment From Guest
What would you say is the demographics of fangraph readers. Sometimes I feel an outsider as a 21 year old college player

Dave Cameron: We lean heavily towards the 18-34 male demographic. You fit right in.

Comment From Jerry DiPoto
Garrett Richards for CY? Tell me why I am crazy

Dave Cameron: Because Felix Hernandez is a thing.

Comment From Guest
Just read your wild card piece on JABO and think the Red Sox should deal away pieces that are not necessary for the future (Uehara, Peavy, Miller, Gomes) Agree?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that would probably be the plan i would take if I were them.

Comment From Yankees fan
Was Brett Gardner close to your top 50 trade value? 4 year 52 mil for a 4 win player.

Dave Cameron: He’s more of a +3 WAR player on the wrong side of 30, so while it’s a nice enough value, he’s not a top 50 kind of guy.

Comment From Ben
Who could the Royals realistically acquire to not only help them this season but also in 2015?

Dave Cameron: They should punt this year and focus on the future.

Comment From Guest
Why are wOBA and wRC+ not weighted by position?

Dave Cameron: Because they are measures of offensive performance, not defensive performance.

Comment From Paul
Maybe a scout question, but re: pitchers who aren’t good at stranding runners… is this just a function of them not being as good out of the stretch?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but it’s hard to prove. Velocity and movement don’t really change with men on base. Location might, but is that a stuff thing, a focus thing, or simply an I-dont-want-to-walk-this-guy thing.

Comment From Pumpsie Green
Between them, the Red Sox and Jays have committed significant dollars to just two players after next year (Reyes and Pedroia). Yet, the franchises are worth Billions with a B. What gives? And, is this the way of the future?

Dave Cameron: Bautista, Encarnacion, Ortiz… plenty of other money on the books for those clubs.

Comment From Sam
Who has more trade value, Nick Franklin or Didi Gregorious

Dave Cameron: Gregorius, probably, since he can play shortstop.

Comment From Ben
Edwin Jackson and Starlin Castro for Carl Crawford, Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Zach Lee. Cubs assume full Crawford contact, and move AA to short or call up Baez. Dodgers move HanRam to 3rd base, and call up Pederson to play CF. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Stop it. You can’t turn Starlin Castro into two of the best prospects in baseball.

Comment From Sean
Considering the haul SD got for Street, what do you think the Diamondbacks could get for Reed? Probably more than they gave up (Davidson)?

Dave Cameron: Well Huston Street is good and Addison Reed is not, so…

Comment From Sam
We know you like Chick Fil A, what are your thoughts on Chipotle?

Dave Cameron: Good, but overpriced and the lines are always too long. Besides, that kind of food is very easy to make at home.

Comment From Pumpsie Green
Has anyone (another fangraphs writer, perhaps) ever offered to keep up the Trade Value list on a more regular basis, say weekly or monthly? It is my most anticipated fangraphs feature, and I think many readers would agree.

Dave Cameron: The rankings don’t move that much, so it would be the same list over and over.

Comment From Kaiser Soze
Headley’s on pace to put up 3 WAR this year — that would have put him at 10th in WAR rankings for 2013 3Bs. I realize he’s not the beast he was a few years back, but doesn’t this return still seem small for someone with that much value?

Dave Cameron: Value is all tied up in his glove. Teams don’t pay for third base defense.

Comment From Andre
Your thoughts on going to a six man rotation to reduce UCL injuries?

Dave Cameron: Worth considering.

Comment From filihok
Bad contract swap. Danks for Crawford. Dodgers send money to Chicago. Crawford can rebuild value by having a guaranteed spot in the lineup (White Sox’ OF is pretty bad). Dodgers save some money at least. Ridiculous?

Dave Cameron: Danks is worse than what Dodgers already have.

Comment From gregorian
3 years for the Phillies? That’s quicker than the Cubs and Astros. Why the quicker turnaround for the fightin’ Phils? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: $175 million payroll.

Comment From Stephen
Montreal is given an expansion club. For their GM, they should go out and hire ______.

Dave Cameron: Michael Girsch.

Comment From Gila Monster
Justify not ranking Gerrit Cole not being on the top 50 trade value? He is a former 1-1 pick that can hit 100mph,has two plus-plus pitches,great ground ball rate,and has put up solid numbers so far. He is under team control until 2020.I know he is injuried, but it is a lat strain, not a elbow or shoulder problem. Would any GM prefer Quintana,Ventura, or Archer over Gerrit Cole?

Dave Cameron: You’re dramatically overrating him and underselling the injury./

Comment From John
Does a package starting with Lindor and Salazar even begin to interest the Rockies for Tulo? Or is it way more than that?

Dave Cameron: It’s way more than that.

Comment From noob
Is a single equal to a walk? I would think a single would be slightly more valuable

Dave Cameron: Singles are slightly more valuable, because they can advance a runner more than one base.

Comment From kevinthecomic
I think I already know the answer, but what is your opinion of Tom Verducci’s contention that baseball should think about an ‘illegal defense’ rule to combat shifts?

Dave Cameron: It’s dumb.

Comment From Anthony
how’s liberty doing?

Dave Cameron: She’s great, but her schedule has changed for the summer, so now she sleeps all day and then is extremely active and energetic in the evenings. Makes having a life after work difficult.

Comment From MJA
Down the road, it seems the Reds are going to have to pick one of Latos and Cueto to resign and then trade the other. What would you do?

Dave Cameron: I might trade them both and keep Mike Leake.

Comment From Zachary
Does a rule prevent the other seven defenders from standing right near the batter, facing away, head tucked down, with a gap for the pitch to get through?

Dave Cameron: Yes; the rule is called workers compensation.

Dave Cameron: Do you want to stand right next to a guy about to hit a baseball 100 mph?

Comment From Brendan G.
Speed the game up idea: no mid-inning pitching changes until the pitcher has faced at least five batters. We’ll make an exception for the starters, who can be pulled at any time. Like it?

Dave Cameron: No. You can’t force a pitcher to pitch injured, so it would become a big game of pitchers saying their arm hurts and need to be removed for health reasons.

Comment From filihok
Don’t get why people think these opt-out deals are bad for the team. The chance to get Kershaw for 4/$160 is amazing. And they still get him for less even if he’s injured than they would have with no opt-out.

Dave Cameron: Because they are all downside. If the player is good, you don’t get any of the excess value, and if he is bad, you get all of the negative value.

Comment From Prich
It seems your argument is the Ms would be wise in using (the overrated) Walker to acquire 2-3 1.0-1.5 WAR players than one 3-4 WAR player, if possible… No?

Dave Cameron: No. My argument would be that if they’re going to trade Walker, they should get something back that won’t cost $20 million next year.

Comment From Rowen Frazer
Does Brandon McCarthy have a stellar xFIP because he is about to become a stellar pitcher, or because he shifted to sinkballing and the stat doesn’t accurately reflect pitch types?

Dave Cameron: Neither.

Comment From Jheff
Why do you hate Aaron Sanchez?

Dave Cameron: I don’t hate him; I just don’t think he’s very good. The most important thing a pitcher can do is throw strikes. He’s awful at that. Maybe someday he won’t be awful at that, but he’s just another example of overrating of hard throwing bad command minor league arms.

Comment From Ralph
You have said previously that Arbitration doesn’t value Kyle Seagar’s skills, so it would be fine to go year to year. Has this year changed your mind?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Arbitration hasn’t changed.

Comment From semperty
Is Oscar Taveras’s production really far enough off of Buxton/Bryant for them to both be top 40, and Taveras be off the list completely?

Dave Cameron: It’s not just production. Taveras has a history of injury problems and a lot of people in the game don’t like his work ethic.

Comment From Jeff
I’m having trouble containing excitement for Arismendy Alcantara. Please tell me why he might not be good so I can stop myself. And then tell me why he’s going to be awesome so I don’t get depressed.

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t control the strike zone very well, so good pitchers can get him to chase bad pitches, which can undermine all other hitting skills. That said, he’s a middle infielder with power, so if he stops hacking, he could be terrific.

Comment From A. Lane
On the complaints about offensive levels, if the strike zone is malleable enough to change in the pitch/fx era, can it not be altered in the other direction?

Dave Cameron: Yep, and this is the easiest way for MLB to alter the run environment.

Dave Cameron: The nice thing is that it’s a change that most people don’t even notice.

Comment From Jon
Chipotle is amazing. Its the Mike Trout of food.

Dave Cameron: Go to the store. Buy a pork shoulder for $2 a pound. Buy some seasonings, a can of chipotle peppers, and a beer. Put them in a crock pot or a dutch oven. Come back in 10 hours. Have Chipotle at home, for like 1/10th of the price, and basically no work.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to grab some lunch and play with the dog. We’ll do it again next week, and don’t forget that Neil Weinberg will be here in about 90 minutes for a chat focused on the site’s metrics and data questions.