Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/5/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Have my first post-op meeting wth my orthopedist today, so will have to wrap things up a little before 1 pm, but I’ll go longer next week to make up for it.

Pablo: Think the Brewers will make at least a minor trade to try to compete this year? They have a ton of outfield depth in the minors they could deal.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they keep hanging around, and barring a huge collapse, definitely won’t be selling now. I could see them going after a Jason Vargas type, the kind of guy who would upgrade their rotation more than some other teams, and who might be able to crack their playoff rotation but wouldn’t in some other cities.

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they’d prefer a controllable guy, but I would imagine they’ll get outbid for the likes of Gray and Quintana.

The Toe: Should the Cubs try and sell Arrieta and Davis at the deadline? No team has ever won the WS being below .500 on July 5th.

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs will be fine.

Brett W: The playoff odds support the idea that the Cubs should be buyers. But they haven’t looked great all year. Does that make it harder for executives to justify win-now trades?

Dave Cameron: Does anyone actually think the Cubs aren’t a good team?

Jonathan : I’ve been having an argument with my fellow disgruntled Mets fans.  I believe literally anyone other than Conforto should be on the trading block in the right deal (including Thor, assuming market return based on a full recovery).   I just don’t think you get another run like 2015 out of team built around young pitching due to injury volatility.  What say you?

Dave Cameron: You listen on anyone, but I don’t think tearing it down to the bones is the right call.

Dave Cameron: I’d move the rentals and then take another shot next year.

Sandy Ravage: Rangers are in quite the precarious situation. Want to win with Beltre, but need to sell. What should they do, GM Dave?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they sell. I think they want Otani, and keeping as good a team as they can together helps that goal.

Neal Huntington: Who should I trade at the Trade Deadline? Who will I actually trade at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Cutch should and will get moved. I would maybe move Cole too, but I don’t think they will.

J: Would you rather have a 2 WAR player for $10M or a 5 WAR player for $30M? So basically surplus value/total WAR vs WAR/$.  How much would the team’s payroll affect the decision?

Dave Cameron: Depends a bit on payroll, but you probably take the +5 WAR guy. You can’t easily buy another +3 WAR for $20 million these days, so you’re getting a discount relative to market price on the larger WAR by buying the star, even though the cheaper guy costs less per win.

matt: Realistically, what could the Orioles get for Zach Britton at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: If he shows he’s healthy, a lot.

Dave Cameron: But he only has a few weeks to do that.

Jeff: Dave, hope your leg is feeling better. I know the trade value series comes out next week and one person I am really interested in hearing about is Jose Ramirez. He was not an elite prospect but is 24 years old, 7th in WAR over the last calendar year, and signed to an incredibly team friendly contract. I guess the question is do you believe in his performance enough to view him as one of the most valuable assets in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Yep, he’ll be on the list.

Zane: So are the Cardinals buyers (‘cuz the NL Central sucks this year, and they’ve been good recently), sellers (‘cuz they’re below .500), or neither (‘cuz they’re the Cardinals and they never do anything big around the deadline)?

Dave Cameron: I bet they don’t do much.

Brandon M: Today is my 21st birthday. Any good drink recommendations?

Dave Cameron: Water is as free and good for you today as it was yesterday.

Dave Cameron: (Ask Eno tomorrow.)

The Average Sports Fan: Bill Parcels had the famous quote “You are what your record says you are”.  Agree or disagree?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s wrong.

Zed: How much slack should Giolito be given? He’s fluctuating between being awful and just OK in AAA.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably try him in relief.

Stuafoo: Why would the mlbpa agree to the hard J2 caps? Something around 160 mil total for teams to spend when in years previous an individual team could spend in the tens of millions. Do they just want more money to be funneled to the elite players?

Dave Cameron: The J2 guys aren’t in the union.

Dave Cameron: They want more money to go to union members and less to non-union members.

Roger: Would Zack Cozart and Rasiel Iglesias be enough to garner a top-50 prospect return from the Nationals?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, maybe. Iglesias is pretty valuable given his multiple years of cheap control. I don’t know that they’re going to trade for an SS, though; they have the division basically won and Turner should be back by September.

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Hey Dave, not to get all hot and bothered over a likely non-rumour, but what would a Donaldson to Stl package look like? Have to think it starts with Alex Reyes.

Dave Cameron: It’s not even a rumor; just a note that STL likes a good player.

Dave Cameron: I don’t see an obvious fit between those teams.

silvpak: Quintana has been lights out since the beginning of June and appears to be back in form; given the roster crunch for the Dodgers, are Verdugo and Calhoun a valid offer in exchange, or are the Dodgers more likely to aim for another bat and continue their “flexible” interpretation of the 10 day DL (Kershaw and Wood and whomever else is good)?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Dodgers need another SP.

Dave Cameron: I do think Verdugo and Calhoun are probably traded in a few weeks.

ChiSox: Can you explain to me why Melky is so un-valuable? He’s a good switch hitter, has a cannon arm, and plays an adequate corner OF.

Dave Cameron: He’s a DH without power.

RC: Orlando Arcia has been on fire lately and has been fun to watch at the plate and in the field. Seems to be pretty confident at this point but I don’t see much of a change in his profile during the hot streak other than a bump in line drive rate and a crazy high babip. Where do you think his average ends up and do you think the steals will come?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably pre-power surge Elvis Andrus.

Dave Cameron: You should expect something similar.

Phil: What do you think the Dodgers trade for at the deadline? A LF, SP or a RP? Or all or none the above? They don’t seem to have a whole lot of needs, but if there’s a year to go for it and give up a couple top prospects, it’d seem to be this one.

Dave Cameron: An LF

DB: Is pitch movement being affected by the juiced balls? By some accounts the seams are tighter, which might cause pitchers to have less break on their breaking pitches. Could also be part of why we have more HRs.

Dave Cameron: Alan Nathan, who knows this stuff better than anyone, has said he doesn’t think the seam difference would cause much movement difference.

Kevin: I could be wrong here, but IIRC, a few days ago after Mookie’s 2 HR day, he was somewhere around 10-12 in WAR on the leaderboard.  Since that point he has gone 1-10 with a double and 2 walks, yet he’s rocketed up the leaderboard to #3 in WAR.  Is that all defense?  Did he make some spectacular plays over the last few days?

Dave Cameron: UZR isn’t updated daily, so when it does update, it includes a week (or sometimes more) of data.

Dane: “I don’t think the [Astros] line-up is unbelievable. 1B/LF/DH all below average, 3B is okay.” –DC, 6/21/17

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

You, sir, are difficult to impress.

Dave Cameron: Are you comfortable rolling into the postseason starting Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran, and Yuliesky Gurriel?

Dave Cameron: Because that’s three average-at-best hitters, and Bregman might not be much better than that.

Bob: Where is Cutch in a month and what can he bring back?

Dave Cameron: It will probably depend on his willingness to move out of CF again if traded.

Dave Cameron: There are a bunch of teams who probably would play him in left that won’t bid if he says he wants to stay in center.

Frank: Do you agree with Eno that wRC+ is imperfect right now because of the new ball and park factors?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dave Cameron: wRC+ is imperfect, but everyone’s playing with the same ball.

Brew Crew: You imagine they’ll get outbid for the likes of Gray and Quintana, why? They have a top farm system right? Just that they wont feel compelled to?

Dave Cameron: They have a lower level of expected return than other teams. They could be the high bidder for Gray and still miss the postseason just because the Cubs get hot.

Caveman Jones: Is it finally time for the Tigers to sell?

Dave Cameron: Yes

Bob: Any chance Harrison could bring back Devers from Sox?

Dave Cameron: No

Bret: There’s obviously no harm in listening, but should the Jays focus on trading Josh Donaldson at the trade deadline? I tend to think he’ll have a lot more value in the offseason, when more teams may be interested and it’s easier to include cash to offset his salary.

Dave Cameron: The idea that a player gains trade value by having less controllable games/postseasons remaining is just demonstrably false.

Dave Cameron: Any team who would want to trade for him this winter would also want him in July.

Fletch: Should Dodgers be interested in Cutch?  What else would it take beside Verdugo to get it done?

Dave Cameron: I do think there’s a fit there, but only if he wants to play LF.

Dave Cameron: Which isn’t certain.

Nick Markakis: When do the Cubs stop getting the benefit of the doubt? It’s July, they aren’t above .500 in a bad division and people keep saying “they’re a good team”

Dave Cameron: It’s not the benefit of the doubt; it’s being willing to look at all relevant information. There’s a reason projections are done based on multiple years of data.

Robert: Do you think Harper breaks $500 million when he enters free agency after 2018?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how he does next year and how the deal is structured, but yes.

Joe: What’s the % breakdown of the parts of baseball? Batting, base running, pitching, defense

Dave Cameron: 40% pitching, 35% hitting, 20% defense, 5% baserunning

Dave Cameron: Something like that

Eric: Why do Nats fans think Michael A. Taylor is decent trade bait? I still see a talented, but flawed (and overachieving) 4th outfielder, not someone who will make other teams turn over decent relievers.

Dave Cameron: They’re not trading Taylor; he’s their starting CF.

Warren: Is there any reality in which the Braves push for the 2nd Wild Card spot? Do you think they should go after a starter at the deadline or just sell, sell, sell?

Dave Cameron: Could they get within 5 games of the 2nd WC? Maybe. Is that worth going for? No.

Porcho Villa: Do you think Maeda will stick in the rotation this time?

Dave Cameron: He’s in the rotation. It’s just a rotation that has more than five guys and requires that guys get “injured” a lot.

JD: I hope we’re done with the Yuli slander. Guy had one back BABIP month but has otherwise been a VERY good hitter. He doesn’t walk much but the power is there. Astros don’t need another 1B. Are you on the Yuli-bandwagon yet? It’s filling up fast…

Dave Cameron: He’s 33, has a 3% walk rate and a .170 ISO, and his exit velocity numbers don’t suggest that his power numbers have been understated.

Dave Cameron: If you’re trying to win, you want a better first baseman than that.

Phil: Alvarez, Verdugo, Calhoun for Chris Archer. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Archer is worth more than that.

Warren: What is the maximum return the Braves could get for a Adams or Kemp? Is the market strong enough for these guys for either to net a top-50 prospect?

Dave Cameron: Heh.

Dave Cameron: Matt Adams is worth the same nothing prospect he was worth a month ago.

Dave Cameron: Kemp wouldn’t get claimed on waivers.

ErodCal: Belt has xwOBA similar to Rizzo, yet perception seems to be Rizzo elite, and Belt middle of pack.  Can Yankees get Belt on the cheap given that perception?  Of course Rizzo younger but really just 15 mos.

Dave Cameron: Belt is probably more hurt by his home park than almost anyone in baseball. If he played somewhere else, he’d be recognized as a much better player.

Dave Cameron: NYY stealing him from the Giants is interesting, since it does seem that SF doesn’t necessarily love him.

Raisel Igneous Extrusive: Fill in the blank: Devers gets called up to Boston on _________

Dave Cameron: At this point, you have to say 8/15 or something. For whatever reason, they don’t seem interested in giving him a look.

Dave Cameron: For anyone wanting to ask about Scooter Gennett, I unfortunately won’t see your question, as I had to filter out his name due to one person putting their Scooter question in the queue about 500 times.

Dave Cameron: Sorry if you had a really good Scooter question, but I don’t want to reward that guy’s actions.

Michael C: bellinger for judge. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Yankees.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Dodgers too, but Judge is about as easy a marketing play as you can find.

thai: verdugo + calhoun for justin wilson and jd martinez…. whos say no?

Dave Cameron: Detroit will be able to do better than that.

Robbie: What did you think of Swartz’s piece today? How does teams spending efficiently affect the labor market?

Dave Cameron: He’s right. Efficient allocation of payroll doesn’t serve to drive down total payroll. The same forces that are pushing down salaries for overrated 1B/DH types are pushing up salaries for previously undervalued players.

That said, there are weaknesses in the current labor system that make it so that certain types of players (speed and defense guys, mainly) are less likely to receive as much compensation in FA as sluggers, so the shift to properly valuing all types of production isn’t necessarily a linear trade-off for the players. Which is why the MLBPA should be focused on improving the arb process too, not just getting as many guys to FA as possible.

NYTT: I know you aren’t a draft/prospect guy, but do you think player evaluation in the draft and minor leagues have gotten better over the past couple of decades as information has spread throughout organizations and front offices have expanded?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no question.

Billy: Any ideas why a pitcher’s “stuff” might disappear? I get that fastball velocity drops with ages, but what about other pitches? For e.g. Teheran was supposed to have a plus plus change up in the minors and now it’s just a controlled but unspectacular pitch.

Dave Cameron: It’s one of those things I don’t think we understand well, but it happens a lot. James Shields had an amazing change-up, and then it went away. Justin Verlander’s change is garbage now, when it used to be excellent.

Dave: Assuming the Tigers don’t get much in terms of offers for Verlander, would it better to hope he fixes himself (again) for the potential of a better return next deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I can’t see how you move him for any real value at this point unless you’re eating half the contract.

TS: Please. Marwin is incredibly valuable, and is in the midst of a breakout.  Yuli is figuring things out, and absolutely, yes, I would go into the postseason with them. They can upgrade Beltran but Mark my words, you’re gonna eat your words when the Stros win the WS MULTIPLE TIMES.

Dave Cameron: Well at least you’re objective.

Jeries: Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, and Tommy Kahnle for Alex Bregman.  Who says no to this spicy meatball?

Dave Cameron: The White Sox.

HappyFunBall: Seems like just yesterday we were all bemoaning Clayton Kershaw’s mediocrity (relative only to his normal level of awesomeness). Those were such sweet innocent times!

Dave Cameron: The next time someone tells you that Clayton Kershaw isn’t the best pitcher in baseball, punch them in the face.

Manny: JD Martinez and Justin Wilson to Tampa Bay for Willy Adames…..realistic? fair? too one-sided?

Dave Cameron: Detroit can do better than that.

Dave Cameron: Martinez is the best bat on the market. Wilson might be the best reliever on the market. You’re not getting them together for one prospect.

TS: Your point on Yuli – Altuve didn’t walk a lot at all either … Until he learned to.  Yuli is on that same learning path, watch his at bats, he’s being more selective and is just a good hitter. You’ll see.

Dave Cameron: He’s 33.

JD: Not to quibble but Yuli’s ISO is .192 and it’s been trending north for almost two months… 23 2B in 72 games… that should play.

Dave Cameron: .170 in MLB career.

Dave Cameron: He’s a perfectly useful bench piece on a winner or a starter on a team that isn’t trying to maximize wins. If he’s your starting 1B in October, though, you’re at a disadvantage.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to the orthopedist. Hopefully they’ll say I can actually put my foot on the ground today.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Trade Value series next week.

Dave Cameron: Should be a fun time!