Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/14

Dave Cameron: The All-Star Break is almost here, so you know what that means; the trade value list is next week! Oh, you didn’t know that’s what that means? Well, that’s what it means to me anyway.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, so feel free to get your questions in now, and we’ll chat starting at noon or so.

Comment From Semperty
Are there any bats on the market (outside of Zobrist) that could help St. Louis, or are they kind of on their own offensively?

Dave Cameron: I think acquiring either a Zobrist-type or a third baseman who could push Carpenter back to second base is their best path forward.

Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Dave. Can you explain how to scale FIP to runs allowed? I’m trying to replicate the walkthrough but it’s hard to follow.

Dave Cameron: Short answer is divide by .92. The league average earned runs to total runs ratio is usually right around there.

Comment From Starlin Castro
With recent speculation that Washington is looking for a shortstop to take Desmond’s place over the offseason, what are the chances I end up playing in Washington next year?

Dave Cameron: I’d call that unlikely. For as much as everyone has spent talking about the Cubs SS glut, it isn’t that hard to fit all those guys onto their roster: Russell to 2nd, Baez to 3rd, Bryant to RF, Alcantara as super utility guy.

Comment From Nick
One thing that is becoming clear is the importance of hit clustering, since hit clustering leads to better run scoring chances (Baseruns and all that). Doesn’t this again demonstrate the importance of the relatively neglected science of lineup optimization? Hits are important, but having hits follow other hits is even more important.

Dave Cameron: You’re trying to control randomness. You can’t.

Comment From Philbert
Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun says “all the Padres want for Headley, according to scouts, is the Sanchez, Norris and Pompey package.” Realistically, Headley would return something less than one of those three prospects… right?

Dave Cameron: Headley’s not worth much right now. He’s admittedly hurt, hasn’t hit at all, and is a free agent in two months. I wouldn’t even give up a mid-level prospect for him.

Comment From zurzles
Sullivan mentioned last night that Gausman’s flyball tendencies will ruin him in Camden Yards. Will Gausman’s flyball tendencies ruin him in Camden Yards?

Dave Cameron: That doesn’t sound like something Jeff would say.

Dave Cameron: And no, I don’t think it’s true. Other things might ruin Gausman, but it won’t be flyball tendencies.

Comment From Matt
Which team’s current playoff odds do you think will change the most by Aug 1, due to trade, injuries, or anything else?

Dave Cameron: I think the Cardinals have a big trade in them that could shift the balance of power in the NL Central/wild card races.

Comment From Tommy From Quinzee
were the Red Sox last year a well-built team or just a lucky one? are we too quick to credit a team with making smart moves when they happen to work out well afterwards?

Dave Cameron: These are not mutually exclusive things. They were a well built team and a lucky one.

Comment From Rated Rookie
How good (at baseball) can Anthony Rendon be?

Dave Cameron: A perennial all-star and one of the best infielders in the league.

Comment From Tommy
Who wins the AL East?

Dave Cameron: I think I’m still going to stick with Toronto.

Comment From Steve
There’s a lot of speculation about how the change in scenery will effect McCarthy’s production. Where do you land? Marked improvement or same old with even more HR?

Dave Cameron: People vastly overstate the AL East’s offensive potential nowadays. This isn’t the division of 10 years ago. He’ll be fine.

Comment From Beanes conscience
Was Samardzija/Hammel worth Russell? Gut feeling…?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Guest
Could you see Tulo as a fit for the Nats in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: I think they’d be interested, but I don’t know that ownership would want to take on a big deal like that while also knowing that they’re going to have to pony up for some of the Harper/Strasburg/Zimmermann/Fister group in the near future.

Comment From Ben
Hey Dave, huge fan and can’t wait for the trade value lists! Is Jesse Hahn the real deal? Never posted a FIP above 2.80 at any level and the stuff looks impressive.

Dave Cameron: I’m always a little nervous about guys who rely so heavily on their breaking balls, but his curve is very good, and being in Petco will obviously help.

Comment From Patrick
Who would be a suitor for Taijuan Walker and the Mariners? Some are saying a package for Stanton, but with Heaney, Fernandez, and the Marlins slew of other young pitchers, do you really think they would consider trading their best hitter for another pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Stanton isn’t going anywhere.

Comment From Guest
should i sell brock holt?

Dave Cameron: Pretty sure slavery is illegal.

Comment From Drew Stubbs
Does it surprise you that Billy Hamilton is actually valuable this year?

Dave Cameron: I figured he’d have some value; I didn’t think he’d hit this well.

Comment From Jack Z
Setting aside all of our differences, and recognizing that you think the Mariners are unlikely to get beyond the single game playoff even if they get that far, what trade deadline recommendations do you have for me?

Dave Cameron: Get Marlon Byrd for a mid-level prospect and try to pick up a decent back-end starter on the cheap.

Comment From Andy
Tanaka has fared rather worse over his last several starts. Is this more representative of what should generally be expected of him?

Dave Cameron: He’s giving up home runs. This is basically going to be the variable between “good Tanaka” and “dominating Tanaka”. When the ball leaves the yard once or twice per game, he’ll just be solid; when it doesn’t, he’ll be amazing.

Comment From Jack
What could Seattle get in return for a package centered around Erasmo, either Paxton or Walker, and a “change of environment” piece like Ackley?

Dave Cameron: Less than you’d think, probably.

Comment From Stephen
Did you read Billy Beane’s WSJ article?

Dave Cameron: Yep. I’d say I’m a little less sanguine about the wall between insiders and outsiders coming down. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but I’ll believe that MLBAM is going to give us the full, unfiltered StatCast feed when I see it.

Comment From Baseball
Do any FG writers actually care about the world cup? If so, please tell me you make fun of them.

Dave Cameron: Lots of them, and no, I don’t mock people for being entertained by entertaining things. If you can’t enjoy a sport that almost everyone else in the world is enthralled with, maybe it’s you, not them.

Comment From Brett Gardner
Am I probably the most undervalued and least-discussed good LF in the game?

Dave Cameron: You’re in the conversation, certainly.

Comment From Derek
Should the Reds get active in the trade market to fix their glaring problems in LF and on the bench? Seems to me that shipping out what few good prospects they have isn’t worth it when their playoff odds are only around 33%.

Dave Cameron: I’d generally be reluctant to make go-for-it trades when the most likely outcome is a Wild Card berth. A one-game playoff isn’t a big enough reward.

Comment From Mike
Do you feel that MLBAM fielder tracking technology will greatly affect the defense statistics market for companies like BIS and Inside Edge? Or is the data still too new (and too much (terabytes per game!) to prove useful yet?

Dave Cameron: I think it has great potential, but people vastly overstate the timeline of when we might actually be able to make definitive conclusions based on the data. Even if the program is fully functional next year (not a given), and even if MLBAM gives us the data (not a given), we’re going to have access to tiny samples of information and no idea how it predicts future performance. Hey, a guy had a route efficiency of 98 percent in April! What does that mean for May? No clue.

Dave Cameron: I think the system has the chance to be great long-term. But I’m less inclined to think that we’re a year or two away from throwing away all of the numbers currently in use.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Any thoughts on why McCutchen’s RangeR varies so much from year to year + to -8 seemingly each season? Its hard to understand why his range would wildly fluctuate.

Dave Cameron: There’s no reason to think that defensive performance should be static. Most of the defensive value accrued by outfielders is getting to balls that are in the 50-50 range. Would you really be that shocked if, over the course of a few hundred coin flips, we found strings where heads came up four or five times in a row? If a guy has a 50-50 chance of making a play, he’s going to have stretches where he makes some and misses some, and it’s totally normal.

Comment From Theo
Is there a way to calculate a team’s expected runs allowed/scored if given every individuals wOBA’s?

Dave Cameron: Yes. wOBA is essentially just runs per plate appearances translated to the OBP scale, so you can turn it back into R/PA, then multiply it by PA to come up with expected runs. This is what wRC (not wRC+) is on the site, in case you’d rather not do the work yourself.

Dave Cameron: But, keep in mind that team offense is not perfectly linear, so you’re better off with BaseRuns than wOBA at the team level. Which is why our expected runs scored/allowed totals use BaseRuns. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Tom
Should the Mets trade Colon? What could they realistically get for Him, and would it worth the loss in entertainment value?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, i think they should move him, even if they just get a mid-level prospect back.

Comment From Matt
How is it that Mets pitchers have only produced 3.2 WAR as a team, but have a 3.83 FIP and 3.86 xFIP?

Dave Cameron: A 3.83 FIP in a pitcher’s park in the NL in 2014 isn’t very good.

Comment From Guest
Are you starting to believe in JD Martinez, or still too soon?

Dave Cameron: He’s not this good, but yeah, he’s not the same guy he was before.

Comment From Nick
Do the A’s make a move at 2B and if so, who makes most sense?

Dave Cameron: I thought Luis Valbuena would have been a good fit in a Cubs deal, but that didn’t happen. Maybe they go hard after Aaron Hill?

Comment From Jake
Watching the Tour de France at all? Also, how’s the puppy?

Dave Cameron: I don’t have cable, so no cycling races for me. The puppy is doing well, though she doesn’t really like east coast summers. The heat and humidity causes her to sleep most of the day, and then she wakes up when it cools off, making it difficult to have a relaxing evening. I already disliked NC summers; now I really hate them.

Comment From STiVo
Does any other team’s farm system come even close to the Cubs’ top-end talent?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From BORG
Re: Nick. But isn’t there going to be less randomness to hit sequencing if you put your best hitters in optimal lineup positions? For instance, if I bat Mike Trout ninth and hit the pitcher eighth and have Yuniesky Betancourt leading off, that will hurt my hit sequencing, even to a small degree.

Dave Cameron: Sure, but no one does that. The line-ups MLB teams use are close enough to optimal already that the gains made by fully optimizing are just not a big deal.

Comment From Matt
Would it not be more beneficial for the Cubs to trade a couple of the guys where they can be used at a position that will maximize their value? And presumably get some pitching in return.

Dave Cameron: Most people don’t think Baez can play short long term, and Bryant probably fits better in the OF, so why isn’t this maximizing their value? Besides, I’d rather have a slightly inefficient makeup of six good young hitters than five good young hitters and a pitcher who was perpetually one pitch away from surgery. Build around hitters, find pitchers on the scrap heap.

Comment From Marcus A.
The Mariners odds of getting into the one game playoff game are huge. However, their odds of winning the division are tiny. Do you think buying someone like Byrd or Willingham is worth it or just try again next year?

Dave Cameron: That’s the kind of guy that won’t cost you too much.

Dave Cameron: Or, at least, shouldn’t.

Comment From Chris
Taveras package for Price, is that the big trade you are talking about?

Dave Cameron: Price and Zobrist. Cardinals need both.

Comment From Catoblepas
Are we going to see more super-utility Zobrist types? It seems like clubs are seeking out value with less regard for positional gluts, and are more likely to start shuffling people around rather than trading them for less than they think they’re worth.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think the idea that Player X can only play Position Z is mostly incorrect for a majority of players. You can’t move guys to harder defensive positions most times, but if a guy can play SS, he can probably play anywhere.

Comment From Patrick
What is the best theoretical offensive season that George Springer could put together?

Dave Cameron: Maybe something like Chris Davis’ 2013 with more steals.

Comment From Jonah
You are curious about a pitcher and look at his FanGraphs player page. What are the first three things you look at?

Dave Cameron: BB%, K%, GB%.

Dave Cameron: Or xFIP if I’m being lazy.

Comment From mr manager
Is it better to trade for multiple mid-tier prospects or one top-tier prospect? Let’s add in that the total projection of all the mid-tier prospects is equal to the projection of the single top-tier prospect.

Dave Cameron: I’d rather have multiple mid-tier bats than one top-tier arm. If they all play the same position, I probably wouldn’t have a huge preference.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Are the Rangers underperforming their talent by a large margin, or are they just not very good?

Dave Cameron: That’s exactly what my piece on Fox today is about. Stay tuned!

Comment From Guest
Are basball managers uncreative and anti new ways of thinking?

Dave Cameron: Most of them, yes.

Comment From Catoblepas
Dave, I know a lot of your work has been on identifying the different markets for players (midseason trade, offseason FA, international FA, draft, etc.). Any chance at a summary post, listing the ones you’ve identified and the sort of prices relative to production that we see in each one?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s probably an off-season project.

Comment From Guest
Who says no: Tavares for Tulo?

Dave Cameron: Tulo is worth five Oscar Taverases.

Comment From d00d
What should the Dodgers do with their infield long-term, considering Guerrero’s salary and how much Gordon has improved?

Dave Cameron: Probably move Guerrero to another position.

Comment From Guest
Should the Cubs trade Baez for Stanton? How much team control is left on him?

Dave Cameron: If they could, then yes they should, but they can’t, because the Marlins won’t trade him and could do far better than that if they could.

Comment From Oreo Fan
Other than regular season head-to-head, what measures would you look at to determine which league is better? It’s clearly the AL, but by how much?

Dave Cameron: You can also look at the performance of league-switchers, and how guys who change from one league to the next due relative to their league-neutral performances.

Comment From Ben
Tulo for Bogaerts, Webster, and Ranaudo- who hangs up the phone first?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Red Sox, but if they were contending this year, maybe they’d do it. Bogaerts is the kind of guy that is very hard to trade.

Comment From JBD
Are there good reasons to believe in the hypothesis that HR derby participants’ experience power slumps after the All-Star break; or is this simple regression to the mean?

Dave Cameron: It’s regression to the mean.

Comment From Patrick
RE: Mariners and one game playoff, how could you ever bet against Felix Hernandez taking the mound for a do or die game?

Dave Cameron: 1. You don’t know that Felix Hernandez will be able to take the mound for that game. Teams fighting for the wild card are often playing down to the final day of the regular season.

Dave Cameron: 2. Burning Felix in the WC game dramatically reduces the team’s chances of advancing in the ALDS, so even if you bet on Felix in the WC game, you’re now at a big disadvantage in the next round.

Dave Cameron: 3. Starting pitchers are overrated in winner take all games anyway. Good relievers are often more effective than great starters, and the other team could just respond with an army of one inning specialists, many of whom will be just as good as an ace for that inning.

Comment From Jeff in T.O.
What are your thought on Trevor Bauer? I know you were not, shall we say a fan, of his early on. Has he developed into a “pitcher”?

Dave Cameron: I still don’t see much to get excited about.

Comment From Ray
Who, in your opionion, ends up with David Price, assumuing the Rays deal him?

Dave Cameron: I’ve been pushing STL as his destination and I’ll keep doing it until I see a better fit.

Comment From Guest
when you grab lunch at the end of every chat, do you cook or go out?

Dave Cameron: I eat at home almost every day. One of the benefits of working from home is not having to go out to eat.

Comment From bigdaddysmooth
did you enjoy Moneyball? I held off watching it until last night in fear of hating it, and although it was certainly condensed.. I think they did a good job. Confused about the Depo name change though.

Dave Cameron: Depo didn’t give them permission to use his real name, reportedly because he didn’t like the way the character was cast. He wasn’t some fat kid, after all; he played college ball and is a better athlete than most of us.

Dave Cameron: I think the film was fine for what it was. My wife liked it more than I did because she didn’t spot any of the inaccuracies that come from knowing the story ahead of time.

Comment From Jake
ZiPS and Steamer still project Betances as roughly replacement level (ZiPS:-.2 wins, steamer: .3) going forward. That seems ridiculous. What changes can projection systems make to capture guys who’ve clearly had a change in true talent? This seems like an especially big problem for relievers, who can vary so much year to year.

Dave Cameron: The fact that you acknowledge dramatic reliever variation is why the projections are conservative when relievers have wild swings one way or another. Betances has been awesome for 50 innings; Jesse Chavez was awesome for 50 innings in April, then has mostly gone back to being Jesse Chavez. You shouldn’t put more faith in Betances’ 50 innings just because he hasn’t had time to regress yet.

Comment From Ben
If Samardzija and Hammel could fetch Russell, could Ian Kennedy net a top 50 prospect?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Matt
Do you have any idea how much assistant GMs or other front office guys want to move into a GM role (in general)? Do they all want it badly because it’s a move to the top in their field, or is it a position that top front office guys only want to go to if it’s a good situation in their eyes?

Dave Cameron: I think most of them would like to be a GM somedays, but some know it’s unrealistic for one reason or another.

Comment From Theo Epstein
Are you inclined to believe that prospect talent is prospect talent, and getting the best talent possible is important, or should I have acquired pitching prospects to fill out the needs?

Dave Cameron: Trading for need is silly.

Comment From Just Sayin
What’s the latest on Jesus Montero?

Dave Cameron: He’s still terrible.

Comment From Jason
Why do we trust war when it relies on defensive metrics that cant accurately measure a players ability without like 8 years of data

Dave Cameron: Because nothing you just said is true.

Comment From scatterbrian
Hey Dave! On pitcher split pages you can see a pitcher’s wOBA against various splits. Is there a place to find full-season wOBA against, or a sortable leaderboard?

Dave Cameron: There is, but it takes a little work. If you go to the leaderboards and then choose home and away from the split drop-down box, you’ll get wOBA against for that split for each pitcher. You can then export both lists into excel, do a weighted average, and get the overall wOBA allowed for each pitcher. It will be on the site eventually, but that’s the easiest way to get it in leaderboard form now.

Comment From Mike
I’m attending WFU next month. Can you autograph my laptop?

Dave Cameron: That would degrade your laptop. But I’m happy to meet up at some point.

Comment From Robert
Why is Lester’s WAR half a point higher than Tanaka’s, despite the latter having thrown more IP with a lower xFIP?

Dave Cameron: Because WAR isn’t based on xFIP.

Comment From Big DaddySmooth
The article on FG talking with Samardija was cool. One statement stood out to me- where he referenced “back when steroids were prevalent”. I think that they still are…in my opinion everyone is one something, and always will be. what are your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: The players I talk to disagree with you.

Comment From Guest
Do you know of any work being done on quality of pitchers or batters faced with regards to adjusting performance (i.e. not only adjusting for park and league) ?

Dave Cameron: Vince Gennaro has done a bunch of work on this. It matters a little bit, not a lot.

Comment From STiVo
Given 5-years’ worth of seasons, what’s the highest WAR we’re likely to see from a relief pitcher?

Dave Cameron: Maybe 8-9, if you’re talking a Kimbrel-type.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
How many more 10+ WAR seasons does Trout have in him?

Dave Cameron: Well, he’s never not posted one yet, so I honestly don’t know.

Comment From Bret
When the Jays first acquired RA Dickey, you suggested that we should overlook his FIP and xFIP numbers, as they weren’t as applicable to a knuckleballer. Should we look at this season – and now 3.86 ERA – more favorably?

Dave Cameron: Knuckleballers routinely post lower BABIPs than traditional pitchers, so yes, FIP/xFIP will underrate them.

Comment From nick
You are curious about a HITTER and look at his FanGraphs player page. What are the first three things you look at?

Dave Cameron: BB%, K%, ISO.

Comment From JBD
What is the lowest FIP- you think an amazing starter might realistically put together? 50 or so?

Dave Cameron: Pedro had a 35 in 1999. That’s basically as good as it gets.

Comment From kevinthecomic
I’ll trade you NC summers for MI winters!!!

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason I live in NC and not MI.

Comment From Nick
MLBN had it’s Luddite brigade of Bill Ripken and Harold Reynolds on last night arguing against shifts for the umpteenth time. Will shifts eventually reach a level of acceptance from oldschool baseball shutins like those two? Because their antiSabr stance is just reactionary at this point.

Dave Cameron: They’re playing a role.

Comment From Mike
Cliff Lee, Marlon Byrd, and $20 M for Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Chase DeJong. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays.

Comment From AJ
So you save your Ace in the WC game?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think I’d save him, but I’d probably only ask him to go through the order twice.

Dave Cameron: Teams should be extremely aggressive in using their bullpen in winner-take-all games.

Comment From Scrapper
You mentioned that GB% is one of the first pitcher stats that you look at. What % do you look for and what % scares you?

Dave Cameron: There is no good or bad GB%; it just tells me what kind of pitcher a guy is. If you get 30% GB% with a 30% K% rate, that’s totally fine.

Comment From RGIV
I’ve heard a lot of speculation about the Rangers’ trading Beltre, but no attempt to determine whether it’s likely. Is it at all likely?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it’s likely, but I’m also starting to think that the Rangers might not be contenders for a while, so maybe it should be.

Comment From Bryan
I’m trying to find out if there is a way to view combined team stats versus different pitch types, rather than individual players. Is this something that exists within the pages of FanGraphs?

Dave Cameron: Go to the leaderboards, then click team stats, then go to pitch values. That will show you the linear weights values of each team’s performance versus pitch types.

Comment From Guest
What about a 100% GB rate with a 0% KA rate? Also 0% BB rate.

Dave Cameron: That guy would probably be a very good situational reliever. Every time you needed a double play, you know who to bring in.

Comment From Guest
You can tell me to look at BB%, K%, ISO all day but that doesn’t mean I know how they correlate or what they say? And why not look at a summary metric like wRC+ or wOBA?

Dave Cameron: Because you get more information from knowing how a player succeeds at the components than just whether or not he does in total.

Comment From Kevin
How do I succinctly explain to my friend that BA with RISP means nothing?

Dave Cameron: Go play PIG with him. Hit a half court shot. Ask him whether he thinks you can do it again. Tell him that’s hitting with RISP.

Dave Cameron: (This might take a while if you suck at basketball.)

Dave Cameron: Okay, lunch time. I’ll be back next week for a trade value themed chat. See you guys then.