Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/18/15

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s a Tuesday, but Kiley and I have flipped places this week. He has a pretty big prospect update coming out tomorrow, and we figured you guys would rather ask him questions after that was published, so he’s taking my Wednesday spot at noon tomorrow, so I’m doing the Tuesday chat this week.

Dave Cameron: So, the queue is open, and we’ll get started in 20 minutes or so.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing going.

Comment From WillE
What player were you most wrong on (wrongest?) this season?

Dave Cameron: Has to be Nelson Cruz, right? Though I’m pretty sure that no one saw this coming. 34 year olds don’t generally put up a 180 wRC+ for the first time in their careers.

Comment From Zonk
Who is your NL rookie of the year pick at this point?

Dave Cameron: Coin toss between Bryant and Duffy.

Comment From Pale Hose
If J.D. Martinez was a free agent at end of year what would he get? More or less than Chris Davis?

Dave Cameron: He’s a few years younger, right? So probably a bit more.

Dave Cameron: I’d guess he’d get something ilke 6/120.

Comment From adam
any evidence to support a power surge for Heyward or is this the type of player he will always be?

Dave Cameron: Hard to have a power surge with a 55% GB rate. He’ll have to get back to elevating the ball if he wants to be a slugger. Nothing wrong with what he is, though.

Comment From Ryan
How come college coaches dont jump straight into managerial positions like in NFL/NBA?

Dave Cameron: The college game is further from the pro game in baseball than it is in basketball or football.

Comment From lunch
how good does hector olivera need to be to make that trade worth it for the braves?

Dave Cameron: Above average. Or Alex Wood needs to break down soon, which is possible.

Comment From Joe
If Puig does e moved this winter what type of package would he get? And what are some likely landing spots?

Dave Cameron: My guess is that the Dodgers will use him to land a different MLB player (or players) they like. I don’t see him getting moved for prospects, but I could see them trying to use him to go get another young cost-controlled SP. Maybe they offer him to the White Sox for Quintana and something?

Comment From Rob
Madison Bumgarner, position player, has 0.9 fWAR this season, with a .245/.273/.491 line and 4 HRs in 56 PA, not to mention good defensive numbers for a pitcher. If Bumgarner played a position other than pitcher, what position would he be best at, and what would that look like?

Dave Cameron: Tall, athletic player with a strong arm? Sounds like an outfielder.

Comment From Zonk
Does Dexter Fowler get a QO? With borderline CF defense and the potential for any loss of speed to render him a corner OF, is he worth it?

Dave Cameron: He’s a borderline guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs offered figuring he’ll prefer a three year deal at a lower AAV, and someone will give him 3/36 or something this winter.

Comment From Dustin
Predictions on Chris Davis contract for next year?

Dave Cameron: I bet it’s shorter in years but at a pretty nice AAV, maybe similar to the Hanley contract. 4/$100M, maybe?

Comment From Dustin
Do you think the Orioles have waited too long (and thus priced themselves out of) a Machado extension?

Dave Cameron: Probably, but he’s also a Boras guy, right? So maybe that chance was never there.

Comment From lunch
do you think the nationals turn it around? pretty crazy how quickly everyone went from “these guys and the dodgers are in a tier by themselves” to “the sky is actually falling and our only hope is that ian desmond might catch it oh right he is bad at catching things we’re boned.”

Dave Cameron: I don’t think everyone thinks they’re a bad team now. They’ve had a bunch of good players perform poorly, and their rest of season schedule is super easy. I wouldn’t be surprised if they played .600 ball the rest of the way and took the division back.

Comment From Ben
If the Giants (Posey) and Nationals (Harper) both miss the playoffs who is the favorite for NL MVP?

Dave Cameron: Rizzo, McCutchen, or maybe Greinke, since the Giants missing means LAD wins the division, and voters might be swayed by his 1.xx ERA in that case.

Comment From TKDC
Should Greinke’s 0.6 batting WAR be factored into MVP discussions? If you use RA-9 WAR and add in his batting WAR, he’s over a full win above Harper. If you use the 50/50 hybrid they are tied.

Dave Cameron: Yes, he should get additional credit for his offensive production in MVP voting.

Comment From John
Which upcoming free agent is most likely to get a regrettable contract?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the winner of the Justin Upton bidding is going to end up very happy.

Comment From Mayor of Rush St
If Jake Arrieta wins 19 or 20 games and keeps the rest of his stats in line with what they are now, what are his chances of winning the Cy Young in the NL?

Dave Cameron: I have an NL Cy Young vote this year, so I can’t really speculate on that too much. He’s definitely on my radar, though.

Comment From Zonk
Of all the Cubs young hitters, Schwarber might be the best. Agree or disagree?

Dave Cameron: Disagree. Still take Bryant easily.

Comment From Max
What are you most looking forward to about Saberseminar this weekend?

Dave Cameron: The social aspect. The presentations are always great, but meeting up with friends and meeting new people is the best part of these events.

Comment From Jake
Planning on attending Saberseminar this weekend, will be first time at one of these events. What should I do to get the most out of it?

Dave Cameron: Don’t try and go to everything. You’ll burn out if you try to sit in on every single talk and presentation. Find a few parts of the schedule that appeal to you less than some of the other stuff, and make it a point to hang out with other people instead.

Dave Cameron: I mean, maybe there’s some of you out there who can sit in a meeting room for nine hours two days in a row, but I’m not one of them.

Comment From WillE
The Mets/Nationals playoff odds have changed dramatically in the past two weeks. Is this just because the Nats keep losing, or are the projected performances of players on these teams driving the change in the odds as well?

Dave Cameron: It’s all about the standings. Our forecasts think the Nationals are still significantly better.

Comment From Compton
Since Sullivan is out this week, who is chatting on Friday? Cistulli?!

Dave Cameron: Sporer, most likely. Thanks for reminding me that I have to ask him, though!

Comment From dom
do you ever disagree with the playoff odds? like if you had to put money on the playoff picture outcome and went with a team that is a percentage point or two behind in the odds?

Dave Cameron: I think the Nationals probably have slightly better odds than the algorithm gives them.

Comment From The Boat
So if Miggy was a FA this offseason, what kind of contract would he get? More or less than his 8 year/$240 million extension with the Tigers? (How much less?)

Dave Cameron: It was 8/$248M, right? I think he’d get something close to that on AAV, but not for 8 years. Maybe 6/$190m?

Comment From mcmadbat
Who starts a wild card game for the Jays if Price isn’t available?

Dave Cameron: Dickey for a couple of innings, then bring in the hard-throwers for a change of pace, taking advantage of the knuckleball hangover effect.

Comment From Compton
In the case of you (and mostly everyone else) being wrong about Nelson Cruz, how does that impact your player evaluation in the future. I know you’re a process over results guy, but at what point do results impact the way that you go about your process?

Dave Cameron: N of 1 isn’t ever really going to be convincing of anything. If Cruz was part of a long pattern of aging bat-only guys who routinely had career years in their mid-30s, then a reevaluation should be in order. But the fact that one guy is having an anomaly season — and, worth noting, he’s been caught using PEDs before — doesn’t really count as strong evidence of anything.

Comment From The Boat
Chris Davis to Boston this winter, or will they try Hanley there?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they need any more 1B/DH types than they already have.

Comment From Doug G
With castro being relegated to the bench, do you see theo and co. selling low on his this winter?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think his career in Chicago is basically over.

Comment From Logan Davis
Which active baseball player’s name would be the hardest to say ten times fast? My money’s on “Seth Smith”.

Dave Cameron: Robbie Ray

Comment From Do you believe in this years version of Tyler Clippard? Particulary as it conerns his ROS prospects for the Mets? That xFIP is awful…
Do you like, or have any interest in soccer?

Dave Cameron: In a theoretical sense, yeah. If I was single with no kids, I could see myself getting into following a soccer team, especially if I lived in a city with an MLS club. But from a practical standpoint, I don’t have time for non-baseball sports anymore.

Comment From Matt
Utley staying in Philly – LOL. At this point, shouldn’t Amaro just be getting anything of value that he can?

Dave Cameron: Utley has a no-trade and is apparently using it as leverage to try and get his 2016 option picked up. Hard to blame a GM for not being able to trade a guy with a no-trade.

Comment From Compton
Recent Szymborski chats have been seeing a lot of attention about to whether or not steroids had an actual impact on offensive output. What’s you’re thinking on this, as well the industry consensus?

Dave Cameron: Their influence was vastly overstated. I think they mostly helped older players stick around longer and perform at higher levels for sustained periods of time. So the game has skewed younger with fewer PEDs, but I don’t think the huge offensive surge was all about steroids. I think the strike zone had a bigger impact than people think.

Comment From Sean
Rosenthal said that the M’s are contemplating firing Jack Z… what is the hold-up? Do you think he’s gone?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine the “hold-up” is that Dave Dombrowski hasn’t decided what he’s going to do yet.

Comment From Matt
Some dummy I was talking to thinks Cespedes is gonna get $100MM this offseason. He’s a dummy, right?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get more than $100M.

Comment From Gary
Does whoever signs Greinke regret it?

Dave Cameron: Depends. His next contract is so hard to figure, partly because he’s so involved in his own career that he might just negotiate a new deal himself.

Comment From mmarsden
Should the Cubs look to move Schwarber to left full time or dump Montero over the winter?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see why having a guy who can play two positions is a bad thing, given the extra flexibility it would provide. You need two catchers anyway.

Comment From Kris
Could Teheran for Puig work?

Dave Cameron: Teheran not near enough by himself.

Comment From Neal
I’m a little confused by Cespedes’s contract. Does it mean that the Mets can’t even attempt to resign him? He can’t resign with the Mets at all?

Dave Cameron: He can re-sign with the Mets as long as he does so within five days of the end of the World Series, before other teams have the chance to make him official offers. In other words, he has to agree to bypass free agency. That’s unlikely at best, so from a practical standpoint, they probably can’t re-sign him.

Comment From hscer
I have a really dumb hypothetical trade idea but I’m gonna mention it anyway: Harper/Giolito – Trout

Dave Cameron: Angels wouldn’t be interested. Harper only has three years left on his deal, while Trout has five. And, of course, Trout is better. Giolito doesn’t make up that difference.

Comment From Do you believe in this years version of Tyler Clippard? Particulary as it conerns his ROS prospects for the Mets? That xFIP is awful…
Do GMs bid up Greinke this offseason based on his W-L record and ERA? Or are we past that?

Dave Cameron: We’re almost entirely past that. Not 100%, but close.

Comment From mtsw
Puig for Chapman make any sense as an offseason move?

Dave Cameron: Puig will get back a lot more than one year of a reliever, even the best reliever in the game.

Comment From Neal
Is this the year that a free agent accepts a QO?

Dave Cameron: We think that every year is that year. I thought Granderson would take it, then he got 4/$60M. So I’ll stop expecting anyone to take it until someone actually does. Players really value security.

Comment From mtsw
Gerardo Parra: playing himself into a payday or destined to be the guy who signs for 1/10 at the end of February?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get a nice deal. Not QO eligible, so someone will see him as a potential bargain on a three year deal or something.

Comment From MCG
Anything specific (or general) that you think the Red Sox will do this offseason to right the ship? SP targets? Do they keep putting Hanley in LF next season?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know why the Hanley/LF thing is still happening. Their OF should be Castillo/Betts/Bradley for the rest of the year. Hanley can learn to play 1st or ride the bench.

Comment From The Boat
Who wins MVP, Trout or Donaldson?

Dave Cameron: Trout.

Comment From Dustin
4/$100M for Chris Davis, that’s actually surprisingly less than what I thought it would be. Do you think in this financial environment that’s even that much of an overpay? Obviously under the assumption that he’s somewhere between 2013/2014 Chris Davis.

Dave Cameron: If he’s a +3.5 WAR player for 2016, that’s about right. You’d be buying ~11 wins for $100M.

Comment From Kevin
Machado is actually not a Boras client. I think the point still stands, though.

Dave Cameron: I think I just assume every stud young guy is a Boras client.

Comment From soaktherich
Kiley has hinted in chats that there is some sort of Overall Trade Value algorithm in the works at FG that includes both big leaguers and prospects. If so, how much do the actual moves made last month (and last year’s deadline and last winter) figure into ground-truthing it? SSS but there’s only so much real-world data possible.

Dave Cameron: We don’t have the algorithm calculated yet. It’s a complicated project, for a variety of reasons, the lack of real world data being one of them.

Comment From Matt
How many of Price, Greinke, Zimmerman, Cueto do the Dodgers sign this offseason?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess one, most likely being re-signing Greinke.

Comment From Guesto
What kind of contract is Doug Fister in line for this offseason? 1 year deal to rebuild stock?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Justin Masterson contract, basically.

Comment From Brock Sampson
Genuine question: I understand defensive metrics are still being perfected and need very large sample sized to be meaningful, but what explains wild variances like Gerrardo Parra’s last few years? Two years ago and he was Jason Heyward. This year he’s apparently Hanley Ramirez.

Dave Cameron: Given that Parra had an 84 wRC+ last year and is at 136 this year, doesn’t it seem at least somewhat plausible that he bulked up and has traded some extra strength for reduced athleticism? Brett Gardner did this too.

Comment From Joe
Which awards can you vote for this year?

Dave Cameron: Just the NL Cy Young. They expanded the membership of the Altanta chapter this year, so they had more guys to spread the ballots around to.

Comment From Stevolatte
Are you a Starbucks guy? Also, how much more coffee have you had since becoming a dad?

Dave Cameron: I don’t drink coffee. I’m not really a warm drink guy.

Comment From Gary
Do you agree with the statement “Felix Hernandez is no longer the best pitcher in the AL”? Is it Sale?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s Sale.

Comment From Clunk Hurdle
I don’t think Schwarber is the best, but could he have a Jay Bruce-esque career?

Dave Cameron: Without the same level of defensive value, sure. Friend of mine in the game put an Eric Hinske comp on him. Safe to say he wasn’t a huge fan. Will be interesting to see what his BABIP settles in at, especially given that he looks like a pull-heavy guy.

Comment From Pale Hose
Do you think the Cy Young vote will be easier than the MVP vote (talking about process and not individual cases)?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, because it doesn’t have the silly “valuable or outstanding” variable to deal with.

Comment From Kelly
Speaking of putting up a 180 wRC+ season for the first time in his career, what’s Cruz doing different, if anything? Does it change your outlook on him moving forward?

Dave Cameron: He’s running a .288 ISO and a .354 BABIP. Odds are good he’ll never get close to either again.

Comment From Guest
If you’re Miggy, do you wish you hadn’t signed that contract?

Dave Cameron: I think it’d be hard to ever regret signing a $250 million contract.

Comment From Guest
So the odds have the Dodgers at 21% to win the World Series, while no other team is above 10%. Does the algorithm think they are that much better than the Cardinals/Pirates/Cubs, or is this just a reflection of us not knowing which two of those three will be in the play-in game?

Dave Cameron: Our projections love the Dodgers, thinking they’re something like a true talent .600 team. By BaseRuns, they’ve played .600 ball this year. They’re really good, though I think maybe not quite as good as the projections think.

Comment From Guest
And let’s be fair to Amaro — Utley isn’t bringing back much more than a RP prospect at this point.

Dave Cameron: He’d be a salary dump, basically. Not trading Utley isn’t any kind of disaster.

Comment From Julio Pepper
If JBJ is any kind of hitter, does he stay in Boston and Mookie goes to left, or is he traded?

Dave Cameron: Would imagine one of them would move to RF, which is a lot bigger.

Comment From dom
is there anything comparable to NBA veterans taking veteran minimum salaries to play in San Antonio in baseball?

Dave Cameron: Not really. The spread in talent in baseball is so much smaller between teams that you can’t really put yourself on a guaranteed contender before the season started.

Comment From Richard
Seems to me that some of the conditions of Cespedes’ deal contravene the terms of the CBA (or at least the spirit of it). By allowing it to proceed, has the MLB set a dangerous precedent?

Dave Cameron: This deal pre-dates the current CBA.

Dave Cameron: At least, I think it does.

Comment From Norrin Radd
Better left field defense, Hanley or Manny?

Dave Cameron: Manny. Hanley plays outfield like Adam Dunn struck with blindness.

Comment From Roman
Thoughts on where Cueto ends up?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess the Yankees. He seems like their kind of guy.

Comment From Real
Hypothetically, if Buerhle is offered a QO and rejects, who realistically signs him? A team that has already signed someone and given up a draft pick?

Dave Cameron: Or the Blue Jays, on a two year deal or something.

Comment From Taylor
Re: Puig. What does Friedman add to get Sale?

Dave Cameron: A lot. Sale is just so valuable right now.

Dave Cameron: I can’t see the White Sox trading him.

Comment From kevinthecomic
you seemed hesitant to discuss cy young candidates because you have a vote this year — is there a code of conduct or ethics guideline that voters need to follow or is this your own personal compass?

Dave Cameron: We are requested to not disclose our votes until after the award is announced. Even if I just said “Pitcher X is my favorite at this point” now, it would be easy enough to guess my final ballot assuming things stay relatively unchanged.

Comment From Ryguy
The thought of Machado in another uniform makes me all kinds of sad. What does the terms of his next contract look like?

Dave Cameron: If he gets to FA and keeps playing at this level while staying healthy, he’ll join the $300M club.

Comment From Jeff Gross
Who is the better/more likely FA SP offseason signing for the Cubs – Price, Zimmerman or Cueto – and why? Price because of the lack of injury history and no draft penalty? Zimmerman because of the youth upside?

Dave Cameron: Price has been rumored to be a target of theirs ever since they hired his college pitching coach.

Comment From MFG
So, looking back on it, is there any more clarity on why the A’s gave Billy Butler 3/$30M?

Dave Cameron: No. I didn’t get it then, I don’t get it now.

Comment From Ray
Would Zaidi and Friedman deal Puig for Zach Wheeler plus a prospect?

Dave Cameron: No, they’ll aim much higher than that.

Comment From Joe
Would the Red Sox defense drop off at all if Betts-Bradley played right/left center and Hanley was extra infielder

Dave Cameron: Maybe not. Fun idea.

Comment From Jeff Gross
Parra on a 3/$25 FA deal for the Cubs this winter? Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get more than that.

Comment From HappyFunBall
re: Sale’s value. Given the risk associated with pitchers, wouldn’t the fact that he’s at the peak of his value mean that now (or soon) IS the time to trade Sale?

Dave Cameron: Teams get very attached to their franchise players.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to do some writing. Kiley will be here tomorrow for a discussion of his updated ratings. I’ll be back to normal Wednesday schedule next week. If you’re going to Saber Seminar this weekend, come say hi.