Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/14/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. I’m coming to you live from Golden, Colorado, where it’s about 50 degrees cooler than North Carolina was when I left it on Sunday.

Dave Cameron: And no, I don’t have a Coors in front of me. Or near me.

Dave Cameron: We’re going to do some baseball chatting for the next hour. I might take a break or two to yell at Sullivan and tell him to start writing.

Dave Cameron: (He’s been “making breakfast” for like 20 minutes)

Carrotjuice: What award are you voting for this year?

Dave Cameron: I have an NL Cy Young vote this year.

Dave Cameron: And no, I don’t know who I’m voting for.

Johnler, destroyer of worlds : Second wild card is exciting but shouldn’t teams look to tank at year end to get better draft position?

Dave Cameron: Nope. The marginal difference in value between draft picks isn’t that large once you get past the top few picks, and wins don’t stop having value to your franchise just because you’re eliminated from the playoffs.

Johnler, destroyer of worlds : If Daniel Murphy doesn’t play the next 2 years of his contract will it still be considered a success

Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s basically justified the entire contract in year one.

Carrotjuice: Tim Dierkes of MLBTR said he expects Hill to get 45 mil+ as a free agent. Do you agree with that assessment?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’ll get three years, so $45M seems high to me. I’d probably guess 2/$35M or something in that range.

JTT: The Tigers were always floated as one of the teams with the bleakest long term outlooks. However, they have managed to stay relevant and some of the problematic contracts start expiring next year with Sanchez then Vmart in 2018. With Verlander and Cabrera looking less disastrous, has their outlook improved considerably?

Dave Cameron: No, they’re still headed for a cliff.

Dave Cameron: This is an old team without a good crop of young talent coming up to supplement the coming decline.

Zach: How do I explain Ivan Nova to my children?

Dave Cameron: Ray Searage is good at fixing guys with velocity.

Erik: Which team’s long-term outlook has improved the most this season? Which team’s has taken the largest step backwards?

Dave Cameron: You have to like what the Brewers have done this year.

Dave Cameron: The A’s, on the other hand, have seen few things go right.

Big Joe Mufferaw: *IF* Gary Sanchez reaches 20 HR and the yankees make the post season. Do you think he wins ROY?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s got a real shot.

Q-Ball: It’s weird that nobody wants Danny Valencia. Is there really that much we don’t see that would make a 2-WAR versatile IF a worthless asset?

Dave Cameron: The general consensus is that the defense is horrible, the personality is grating, and as a RH half of a platoon, people seem to think he’s not worth the hassle. It’s kind of weird, though. He can clearly hit.

jjdouglas: Loved the Seager for MVP piece. With Rizzo and Bryant likely taking votes from each other, do you think he has a realistic shot at the award?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know if he’s got enough sexy triple crown numbers to win over the traditional voters, and his WAR is being heavily driven by a very positive UZR, though most people don’t think he’s a real asset defensively. My guess is he finishes a distant second.

Monsignor Martinez: I’m looking at Joe Carter’s 1987 stats. It says he put up 32 HR, scored 83 runs, and drove in 106 RBI, yet that combines for a wrc+ of 101. How are those stats only good for league average?

Dave Cameron: Runs and RBIs aren’t factors in wRC+, because they’re basically worthless metrics.

Big Joe Mufferaw: With a strong end to the season, could Sanchez reach the back end of the Top 50 trade value list?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he’ll crack the offseason update.

Tanner: Hey Dave, wanted to let you know that because of your story, I signed up for Be the Match, so thank you for that.

Dave Cameron: Awesome. Thank you!

Steve: I like your idea about having a taxi squad during roster expansion. However, wouldn’t the easy way to get around that be to just deactivate the other four starting pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, you’d have to essentially put in a rule that prohibits that.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is it all that hard to see the Diamondbacks putting a quality team out there next year? Get a few injured/wildly underperforming regulars back to career averages, hope for gains from guys like Segura to stick, and maybe this D-backs team can be a dark horse? Or, is this getting too far into “absolutely everything needs to go right” territory, and they would be better served conducting a blowup and restart?

Dave Cameron: Nothing is impossible in baseball, but I don’t see it. Even if Miller/Corbin turn back into solid starters, that’s a rotation that is at least one arm short, and Greinke probably isn’t the ace they were hoping he was. The offense is average-ish, and playing guys like Tomas sinks the defense.

Dave Cameron: It feels like they’re a 75-85 win team.

Dan: When should I use RE24 as compared to wRC+ or others?

Dave Cameron: When you want to give the hitter credit for advancing runners.

Barry: So, um, yeah… Is Ivan Nova the 2nd best starter available this off season? What kind of contract does he get?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to be fascinating. Happ’s success will help him. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got 4/$50M or something.

Conor: Hi Dave! I’m currently working on proposals for an undergrad economics thesis, and I’m considering researching whether the defensive value of an elite defender is diminished when they play beside a similarly elite defender. Have any suggestions for reading on this topic? Has anyone else asked this question?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this has been studied a decent amount. Tango recently posted some data using Statcast showing the percentage of balls in the outfield that had the time/distance to be caught by multiple players. You’d probably want to talk to him.

Blue Moon: What’s your take on the recent power surge? Juiced ball, lower seams, etc.?

Dave Cameron: I think the ball being manufactured differently is the most likely explanation, but we can’t prove it.

Jon Daniels: You keep claiming Rangers are not good because of the run difference. But yet, they have the MLB best record again Teams >.500. Have you ever considered the run difference could be a cause that they don’t care to play peon teams like your garbage mariners

Dave Cameron: Rangers fans continue to make a great name for themselves.

Steve: how’s the drive going?

Dave Cameron: Did the lousy KC to Denver stretch yesterday, so it gets better from here!

Kevin: Adrien Beltre is having the second best season for a 37 year-old 3B since 1900 and is likely to finish as the tenth best age-37 season since 1900. That is all.

Dave Cameron: Adrian Beltre is the best.

Craig: Who are your NL CY finalists, if you don’t know who you’re actually voting for yet?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t made a list yet, but it will be the guys you’d assume are in the running: Hendricks, Thor, Fernandez, etc…

jcny: Judging from what you know about the Yankees, do you think they’ll be making a play for an ace pitcher or a #2 (Quintana-type) using some of the prospects they’ve stockpiled?

Dave Cameron: I would bet they’ll talk to the White Sox, but the asking prices in Chicago have been prohibitive to insane.

TCJ: If things stay as they are now , who would you pick in a 5 game match up between LA and the Nats ?

Dave Cameron: With Strasburg on the shelf, I’ll take LA.

Guest: ” wins don’t stop having value to your franchise just because you’re eliminated from the playoffs.” Please explain.

Dave Cameron: Baseball is an entertainment product. People who pay to attend games are more likely to do so again if they go home happy. People are more likely to watch games on TV if the team is winning. Both of those things directly translate to higher revenues. It’s also easier to sign free agents at lower costs if you’re not horrendously terrible, which reduces expenses.

darrenasu: Hey Dave…if you had to start a team from scratch and could choose from Bregman or Bentiendi…who would you go with? Thanks, dw

Dave Cameron: Bregman

Brian: being that you’re in Colorado, do you plan on checking out any of the “green” shops while you’re there ? i don’t know what your stance is on the topic, but i always like to ask about how the experience is like there.

Dave Cameron: I’m happily sober. I don’t drink either.

Pat: People that will vote for Donald Trump are _________

Dave Cameron: still human beings, even if I disagree with them politically.

Dan: Is it crazy to think Chapman can get a 5 / $100M?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s what I expect him to get.

Gabe: Do you actually think Seager should win the MVP?

Dave Cameron: I don’t have any firm conviction between him and Bryant. It should be one of those two.

Guest: Will Rizzo and Bryant really “tak[e] votes from each other”?

Dave Cameron: Depends on if either of the two Chicago beat writers who get votes decide that Rizzo should get credit for team leadership stuff.

Jimi: If Kyle Hendricks’ ERA drops below 2.00 and no one is particularly close, is he a lock for Cy Young, or are voters smarter than that in 2016?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably a lock if he finishes with a 1.xx ERA.

Ryan D: Do you believe playing meaningful baseball in September a positive for young players or do you see it as neutral? (Assuming the young players get playing time)

Dave Cameron: It’s probably a positive.

Allen: Man, I-70 in Kansas is brutal. Condolences.

Dave Cameron: I made Sullivan do it.

Dave Cameron: But I still had to ride through Kansas. We did enjoy the fried chicken in Hays, Kansas, though.

Erik: Is there a team skill of performing well against good teams, apart from the team skill of performing well in general?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Steve: Is Kershaw out of the running for you at this point or is dependent on what he does the rest of the way?

Dave Cameron: Depends on how many innings he throws the rest of the way.

Josh: Concerning the AL MVP, does the weight that is placed on every one of Betts/Altuve/Donaldson’s at-bats in the midst of a playoff race mitigate the 1-1.5 WAR difference that Trout has over them? Trout has had a great season but hasn’t been involved in a meaningful game since April.

Dave Cameron: Just because the Angels are out of it doesn’t make the games meaningless; he’s playing teams that are trying to win and need to get him out every time.

STiVo: Over/under wRC+ for Swanson in 2017: 105?

Dave Cameron: Under

Steve: Who is in on a $20 million closer? I really don’t see the biggest three spenders going there.

Dave Cameron: Did you see last offseason? Reliever valuation has gone through the roof.

butter: Do you think Trout should win the MVP?

Dave Cameron: Yes

Elton: Do you listen to podcasts when driving solo?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I listened to about 6-7 podcasts over the first two days before meeting up with Jeff in KC. The best one was the story of triage on This American Life. It was a fascinating discussion of how you distribute scarce resources in disasters, and how we prioritize life and death when we can’t save everyone.

Dave Cameron: A real uplifting listen…

Brian: Why is Sullivan with you? Did he agree to accompany you on your journey? Pretty good dude is thats the case.

Dave Cameron: I paid for his plane ticket from Portland to KC so he could do the western half of the country with me.

Dave Cameron: But yes, he’s a good dude, despite the fact that he hasn’t written a post this week after taking off the end of last week to go to jury duty…

Dan: Did you at least stop at KC Joe’s for BBQ in the gas station?!

Dave Cameron: No, we ate at Char Bar, since they had a big outdoor dog-friendly eating area.

Erik: Shouldn’t ERA be huge in Cy Young voting? The Cy Young isn’t meant to predict who will do well next year, it’s meant to reflect who did well this year, and someone who didn’t give up many ones indisputably did well this year, even if he did it in an unsustainable way.

Dave Cameron: ERA doesn’t measure pitcher quality; it measures pitcher and fielder quality.

Dave Cameron: And the ERA/RA distinction is stupid.

Big Al: I asked Sullivan to tell me if Nick Franklin is worth caring about last week. Make him write that piece!

Dave Cameron: He told me about that question in the car yesterday.

Elton: I think the triage episode was on Radiolab. I listened to it too and thought it was one of their best shows.

Dave Cameron: Hmm, yes, you may be right; I listened to several Radiolab podcasts too.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, the triage episode is pretty amazing.

Ian: So FIP trumps ERA everytime? Results don’t matter?

Dave Cameron: I didn’t say anything close to the first sentence. I simply pointed out that you can’t measure a pitcher’s results with ERA.

Josh : Would you consider leadership qualities when voting for MVP?

Dave Cameron: If one could show how those leadership qualities translated into actual value for the team, sure. For instance, if a pitcher took it upon himself to teach all his teammates how to throw a dominating change-up, and they all got a lot better because of it, then I’d consider that as part of his value.

Steve: Are you including batting line in your Cy Young thinking?

Dave Cameron: Yes. I wrestled with this last year a bit, but in the end, I’ve decided that the award is for the best player at the pitcher position, not the person who pitched the best. We include pitcher defense in our evaluation of their job, and for the NL, hitting is also part of their job, so should also be included.

STiVo: What about the other premise in Ian’s question: That we shouldn’t care about whether this year’s stat line for an individual should wildly regress in the following year? Maybe a better example is a guy who BABIPs like .400. Results would be amazing. Would you ding that guy in this year’s MVP voting?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t adjust a hitter’s line downwards because of a high BABIP, no. We’re not trying to strip luck out of the results, we’re trying to strip out the effects of the player’s teammates. For a hitter, those are small and mostly negligible. For a pitcher, especially a pitcher on the Cubs, that is not true.

Tim: Nobody cares if a pitcher has a great FIP and loses. I’ll take whoever actually gives up less runs, regardless of other factors every time. Who will be a part of more team wins over a 3 year stretch between player A- 3.00 ERA/4.00 FIP pitcher or player B- 4.00 ERA/3.00 FIP?

Dave Cameron: You’re basically saying you don’t care about giving credit for positive results to the right player. It’s nothing but laziness to believe that ERA is the best way to evaluate a pitcher’s performance.

butter: how do you reconcile the recent offensive power surge with the preponderance of low-to-sub 2 eras in the league lately?

Dave Cameron: Well, I don’t know that we really have a preponderance of sub-2 ERAs, do we?

jon: Can’t it be argued basing your entire pitcher’s evaluation on FIP, which is “lazy” in it’s normalization of defense and contact outcomes? We can measure the effect of whiffs/strikeouts fairly accurate and so our analysis focuses on that, but batted ball distribution is not a settled science, so ignoring in game outcomes would be as wrong as taking them for granted.

Dave Cameron: The difference is that literally no one is saying “just look at a pitcher’s FIP and call it a day”

Dave Cameron: FIP is wrong, because it gives the pitcher zero credit for results on balls in play. ERA is wrong, because it gives the pitcher all credit for results on balls in play. Both are wrong. Only one of the two wrong pitcher metrics is being held up as the ultimate stat for picking the Cy Young winner, and it isn’t FIP.

STiVo: They’re really trying to box you into a corner on this ERA/FIP thing, aren’t they? I’m pretty sure you believe virtually none of the things you are being accused of here. Nice.

Dave Cameron: If this week’s chat had a headline, it would be “Dave Cameron Confronts All Strawmen”

tengopreguntas: How much do you miss the humidity?

Dave Cameron: I woke up this morning, took the dog out, and it was 44. It was glorious.

Dave Cameron: I hadn’t been legitimately cold in months.

Josh : What do you look at when trying to figure out how much credit to give pitchers for balls in play?

Dave Cameron: Their batted ball profile. The data we have that gives us an idea of the contact quality they allowed. The quality of the defenders behind them. Last year, I voted for Arrieta at the top of my Cy Young ballot because I believed we had enough data to show that he was significantly responsible for suppressing hits on balls in play, and that he should get credit for that skill. I’m not just blindly following FIP. No one is.

STiVo: If Sullivan’s there, can you have him explain the hydrologic cycle to us in 25 words or fewer, especially its relationship to relative humidity? Thx.

Dave Cameron: No, he’s busy writing the Kris Bryant MVP piece that he got a late start on because he slept in and then spent a long time making breakfast.

Dave Cameron: But he drove through Kansas yesterday so he’s earned some slack.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that will do it for me this week. Jeff and I are recording a podcast in a half hour that should be up at some point (knowing Carson, probably tomorrow). Next week’s chat will be my first from Oregon. Talk to you guys then!