Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/14
11:44 |
: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open.
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12:01 |
: Alright let’s get this party started.
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12:01 |
Where do you think the Braves go from here? |
12:01 |
: I’d expect a lot of change this winter. Maybe a new GM/manager, lots of trades, and a very different roster next spring.
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12:02 |
rational mets being being irrational: would a smith,plawecki,niese (+flores/herrera) offer get it done for tulo? adds integrity (when healthy) to lineup w/ a formidable quartet (syndy/matz,wheeler,harvey,degrom) |
12:02 |
: Not even close.
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12:03 |
Thoughts on a Pittsburgh/Baltimore WS… Interesting or a dud? |
12:03 |
: It would be a ratings disaster for the network, but probably a fun series.
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12:03 |
Can a case be made that Derek Jeter has actively hurt his team this season more than any other player? |
12:04 |
: Not a very good one. Kendrys Morales is coming up on -2 WAR in half a season, for instance.
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12:04 |
I’d be surprised if enough voters can overcome the nonsensical “pitchers shouldn’t win the MVP” thinking and give the award to Kershaw…..so removing him from consideration, who wins it? |
12:05 |
: It’s going to be a really interesting race, because there simply isn’t an easy traditional candidate left now that Stanton missed the last few weeks. Voters are going to have to pick some kind of odd MVP in the NL this year.
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12:06 |
Why does everyone seem to be down on Tommy LaStella’s ability to hold down 2b? His minor league numbers show all he does is hit hit hit. Given he held his own what do you see his stats being after full season next year? |
12:07 |
: He had a 112 wRC+ in Triple-A before he got promoted, which isn’t great. He has no power, isn’t a good defender, and at least this year, he’s been a terrible baserunner. He looks like a bench guy to me.
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12:08 |
Over/under $110m for Yosmani Tomas: |
12:08 |
: I’ll go under.
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12:08 |
You’re Neal Huntington. How much can/should you offer Russell Martin for his next contract? And how likely is it that the Pirates find a way to hold on to him? |
12:08 |
: Short-term, high AAV. 3/42 or something.
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12:09 |
Is it just me or do a lot of fans think the Cardinals are older than they really are? Yes, Holliday, Wainwright, and Molina are the older statesmen of the group but a majority of the other players are extremely young. |
12:10 |
: Most of their youth is on the pitching side. The core group of position players — Holiday, Molina, Peralta — are all over 30, and Carpenter isn’t exactly a kid anymore.
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12:11 |
As a Nats fan with a team that just clinched the division, is there any statistical evidence one way or another that says if it’s better to play out the season hard versus resting starters? |
12:11 |
: There is zero evidence that how a team finishes the regular season matters at all in the postseason. Take the rest, get as healthy as possible, and gear up for October.
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12:12 |
What would you say would be a reasonable extension for Kole Calhoun? |
12:12 |
: He’s got one year of service, so it wouldn’t be much. Maybe 6/30 with a team option or two?
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12:13 |
There’s been a lot of talk about the validity and accuracy of WAR recently. What of the major advanced stats are you most certain of and which do you take with a grain of salt? |
12:14 |
: It all depends on what question you’re asking. There are some questions that are easy to answer because they’re very basic — how many times did Player X walk last year? — and some questions that are more difficult because they are more involved. Offensive metrics are ahead of defensive metrics overall, but even with offensive numbers, you want to make sure you’re using the right tool for the job.
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12:15 |
Could you see Posey at third next year with the emergence of Andrew Susac and the potential departure of Pablo Sandoval? |
12:15 |
: It doesn’t really make sense to move Posey off of catcher until it’s physically difficult for him to remain back there.
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12:16 |
The Blue Jays’ rotation could soon include Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris, perhaps even at the start of next year. That leaves Dickey, Buehrle, Happ and (possibly) Morrow, so what do you think the Blue Jays should do with these surplus veterans, who are generally too old/expensive/not great to have much trade value? |
12:17 |
: Keep them all, let Sanchez and Norris continue to develop in the bullpen or the minors, and accept the fact that they’ll likely need 8-10 starters to get through 2015.
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12:17 |
Random variation or not, it feels good to be an O’s fan today. Any thoughts on how their pitching matches up with the other playoff teams? No studs, but 4 #3’s should have a fighting chance, no? |
12:18 |
: The key will be to be aggressive with their bullpen usage. You don’t want Bud Norris facing the line-up multiple times in a playoff game. Get a few innings from a starter and then get to your relievers ASAP.
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12:18 |
Who actually breaks down batted ball info into FB/LD/GB profiles? Is that just the PITCHf/x system or am I missing something obvious? |
12:19 |
: PITCHF/x doesn’t measure batted balls; it’s just the pitch from the mound to the plate. We get our batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions, though there are other companies (Inside Edge, Stats Inc) that also track such things.
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12:19 |
Can Steve Pearce sustain even 80% of this year’s production moving forward? His breakout actually started last year . . . |
12:20 |
: He’s been a +5 WAR guy this year, so 80% would make him a +4 WAR player going forward. Very little chance.
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12:21 |
How close are to we to discerning which pitchers can limit how hard contact is with their balls in play – thus sustaining a low BABIP? Seems like a couple pitchers clearly can limit hard contact where we thought all pitchers were in the .290-.300 range. |
12:21 |
: We haven’t thought that all pitchers were .290 to .300 for years. Knuckleballers and fly ball guys can live in the .270 range.
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12:23 |
Is Kiley going to do more prospect chats? Seems like he did one, and havent seen any others. |
12:23 |
: He’s going to be chatting every Friday going forward.
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12:23 |
There have been some comments in the Baltimore press that Joseph/Hundley are better at framing pitches than Wieters was. Where can I find info about this? And where do we stand as far as the ratings about this skill? Do you feel it can be measured reliably? |
12:24 |
StatCorner.com has catcher framing ratings for every player for the last six years. I’m still a disbeliever in the range of runs saved being credited entirely to the catcher. I think it’s absolutely a skill, but it is not worth 30 or 40 runs at the extremes.
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12:24 |
How aggressive should Rick Hahn be this offseason? I’d like to see them make the most of Abreu’s prime years and Sale probably has a limited number of bullets in that elbow, but they’re more than “one piece away” |
12:25 |
: They should have another off-season as close to last year’s as possible. Continue to collect young, controllable players with uspide.
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12:25 |
Do you think Arrieta has a chance of sustaining this success long-term? |
12:25 |
: Yeah, I’m a believer.
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12:25 |
Do plate appearances for batters have the same value to a team as batters faced for pitchers? Kershaw has faced more batters than any other batter has plate appearances. |
12:26 |
: Position players also get to play the field, so PAs are not the entirety of a player’s value.
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12:26 |
Kluber over King Felix for CY at this point? |
12:26 |
: Nothing wrong with picking either. It’s very close.
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12:27 |
Assuming you buy into the notion that WAR is fairly incomplete (especially given difference in pitcher WAR among websites) isn’t the real issue with pitcher-MVP the fact that we can’t REALLY compare Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw regarding impact on the game? |
12:27 |
: I’d say that the entire premise of your question is incorrect. We can measure Trout and Kershaw’s impact. It might not be precise, but we can get pretty close.
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12:28 |
How do the nationals decide which three pitchers they use in the NLDS or will they? |
12:28 |
: There are very few off-days in the postseason schedule this year, so they’ll use four. It will be the regular rotation minus Roark, most likely.
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12:29 |
What does a 35 year old Nelson Cruz coming off big year in free agency get? Hard to imagine more than 3 years, 45 million? |
12:29 |
: 2/28, and the team that gives it to him regrets it by next May.
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12:29 |
Am I about to get overpaid this winter!? |
12:29 |
: Wildly so.
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12:30 |
It’s official, Taveras won’t bust, but won’t ever live up to any of the expectations. |
12:30 |
: Pretty sure nothing is official after 200 at-bats.
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12:31 |
What kind of expectations do you have for me? |
12:31 |
: As with just about every pitcher with an arm problem, limited.
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12:31 |
Dave, can you identify any CF that would be available in trade during the offseason that could be realistically acquired, i.e., would not require a team to trade a top-5 prospect or otherwise empty its entire system? |
12:31 |
: I doubt the Cardinals will keep both Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay for 2015.
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12:32 |
Nats are going to be playing for HFA. lots of quotes in the postgame yesterday to suggest so |
12:32 |
: Which is why they scratched Gio Gonzalez from today’s start and are going with Blake Treinen instead?
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12:33 |
What the heck will I get in free agency? |
12:33 |
: 1/10.
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12:33 |
Starling Marte has a 195 wRC+ in 150 ABs in the second half of the season. Any evidence he’s figured something out and can do this sort of thing for a full year? |
12:33 |
: Second half performance is a worse indicator of future performance than full season performance. So no.
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12:34 |
if pedroia were a free agent, this offseason, what would he get? |
12:34 |
: 6/120, maybe?
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12:34 |
If you were Brian Cashman how much would you offer for David Robertson? |
12:35 |
: Make him the qualifying offer. If he gets a better offer than that, probably let him go.
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12:36 |
Which struggling SP should teams attempt to convert into lights out relievers, a la Andrew Miller? |
12:36 |
: Trevor Bauer, maybe.
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12:36 |
What kind of pitcher is Tanner Roark going forward? Who would be his best historical comp? |
12:37 |
: The best case scenario is that he’s Doug Fister.
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12:37 |
as many great moves as Rizzo has made, the Soriano thing is one that definitely didn’t work out as planned |
12:37 |
: Not every move a team makes is the GMs decision.
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12:38 |
Which signing from this past offseason will end up looking the worst? |
12:38 |
: Probably Choo.
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12:40 |
What type of changes do you expect MLB to do if offense keeps dropping like this? (since 2006 the changes have been extreme). And what type of changes would you do? |
12:40 |
: If they want to get run scoring back into the game, they’ll make the strike zone smaller again.
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12:40 |
How much stock do you put into the idea that some of Kershaw’s value translates to the bullpen? They can basically empty the pen the day before his starts and then have everyone fully rested on the day after. Seems a fairly significant factor. |
12:40 |
: Writing about this for tomorrow, in fact.
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12:41 |
Given Gio’s bouts of wildness and pitch-inefficiency, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to plan on him only going twice through the order and schedule Roark for some long relief on those days… |
12:42 |
: Or maybe start Roark instead, let the opposing manager stack the line-up with lefties, and bring in Gio in the third or fourth inning.
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12:43 |
Here’s why I think WAR is incomplete – bWAR says Stanton and Heyward are equally valuable. fWAR says Garrett Richards is 0.5 WAR better than Cueto (despite a 60 inning difference). Think I’m allowed a little skepticism here. |
12:43 |
: There’s a difference between educated objections and “I don’t like the conclusions so I’m going to reject something I don’t understand.”
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12:43 |
What do you think of the plan to bring Tanaka back for a couple starts, to see if his elbow holds up? Would it be better just to shut him down, and give him prolonged rest until ST? |
12:44 |
: If you let him rest until ST, and he shows up in March with an elbow that needed surgery, it would have been been better to know that in September.
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12:44 |
Wow. you think Pedroia would get 6/120 at his age after two straight years of decline? |
12:45 |
: He’s an excellent defensive second baseman whose decline has still left him as an average hitter, and if the wrist gets healthy, he could easily get back to being above average. He’s a +3 to +4 win player, and those guys go for $20 million a year.
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12:46 |
If it were any other team (meaning, a team with moderate payroll limitations), would you offer the same advice re: Robertson? |
12:46 |
: A team with a lower payroll might not be able to risk the QO.
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12:46 |
: Which is another reason why the QO system is stupid.
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12:47 |
Bauer hasn’t shown you anything that makes you think he might become a solid SP? |
12:47 |
: Anything is possible, but he strikes me as a guy who needs every bit of velo he can find.
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12:48 |
Given their contracts, age and ability which 1B would you rather have going forward: Rizzo or Abreu? |
12:48 |
: Probably Rizzo, but it’s close.
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12:48 |
If the yankees offered Shane Greene, Luis Severino, J.R Murphy and another Top prospect to the Rockies for Tulo (plus his whole salary). What would the rockies say? |
12:48 |
: “Call us when you’re sober.”
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12:49 |
Should the Cubs be interested in Russell Martin on a higher AAV/shorter term contract? Welington Castillo is merely at best a fringe league average starter, Schwarber probably is 2 years away if he’s able to improve enough at catching to do it regularly at the MLB level, the next best catching prospect, Caratini, is in Low A and not a huge prospect, and the Cubs have money to spend. |
12:49 |
: Yeah, Martin makes a lot of sense for the Cubs.
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12:49 |
Why wouldnt more team annouce a SP, then switch to an opposite armed pitcher after the 1st? IS that just poor gamesmanship, or actually illegal? |
12:50 |
: It’s not worth the hassle in the regular season, unless it’s a final-game-of-the-year situation.
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12:52 |
RE Pedroia: if he produced those 3-4 wins by hitting dingers and being bad at defense, then I could see 6/120, but not a player with his profile. |
12:52 |
: Jacoby Ellsbury just got 7/150 last winter.
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12:53 |
Why do we not see more front-loaded contracts? |
12:53 |
: Because they serve no purpose. The time value of money makes current cash more valuable to a team than a player, so backloading a deal allows a team to invest the saved present dollars in a way that the player does not.
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12:53 |
Who is your favorite position player of all time? |
12:53 |
: Adrian Beltre, maybe.
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12:53 |
: Yadier Molina is up there too.
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12:54 |
could the SP handedness switcharoo be worth the hassle for contenders in September with expanded rosters, to use sparingly |
12:55 |
: If you’re a team that needs every single win, perhaps. The Royals and Mariners should be considering it, for instance. But I’m sure there’s a “bad form” element to it, where the managers don’t want to make enemies.
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12:58 |
Pedroia is younger than I thought he was, I thought he was like 33-34. Still, Ellsbury was coming off a *6* win season. A 6-win season for a guy like Prince Fielder involves 40+ homers. A 30-year-old coming off a 40+ homer season gets way more than 7/150 |
12:59 |
: The question isn’t what a +3 to +4 WAR slugger would get this winter; the question was what Pedroia would get this winter.
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12:59 |
We are almost certainly not going to have a player over 8 WAR this year and possibly only one or two over 7 WAR, which is historically rare. Does this say anything about MLB in general or is it just variance? |
12:59 |
: Trout is at 7.8 or something. I think he’s going to get over 8.
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1:00 |
: Okay, off to grab some lunch and get some work done. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Any chance for Hopeless Joe to have his own chat before his extinction
Personally? I’d say it’s hopeless. 🙂