Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 9/17/14

11:44
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat. The queue is now open.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Alright let’s get this party started.

12:01
Comment From Kris
Where do you think the Braves go from here?

12:01
Dave Cameron: I’d expect a lot of change this winter. Maybe a new GM/manager, lots of trades, and a very different roster next spring.

12:02
Comment From Dan
rational mets being being irrational: would a smith,plawecki,niese (+flores/herrera) offer get it done for tulo? adds integrity (when healthy) to lineup w/ a formidable quartet (syndy/matz,wheeler,harvey,degrom)

12:02
Dave Cameron: Not even close.

12:03
Comment From IsIt2015Yet?
Thoughts on a Pittsburgh/Baltimore WS… Interesting or a dud?

12:03
Dave Cameron: It would be a ratings disaster for the network, but probably a fun series.

12:03
Comment From Jian
Can a case be made that Derek Jeter has actively hurt his team this season more than any other player?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Not a very good one. Kendrys Morales is coming up on -2 WAR in half a season, for instance.

12:04
Comment From Vic Romano
I’d be surprised if enough voters can overcome the nonsensical “pitchers shouldn’t win the MVP” thinking and give the award to Kershaw…..so removing him from consideration, who wins it?

12:05
Dave Cameron: It’s going to be a really interesting race, because there simply isn’t an easy traditional candidate left now that Stanton missed the last few weeks. Voters are going to have to pick some kind of odd MVP in the NL this year.

12:06
Comment From Shoedog
Why does everyone seem to be down on Tommy LaStella’s ability to hold down 2b? His minor league numbers show all he does is hit hit hit. Given he held his own what do you see his stats being after full season next year?

12:07
Dave Cameron: He had a 112 wRC+ in Triple-A before he got promoted, which isn’t great. He has no power, isn’t a good defender, and at least this year, he’s been a terrible baserunner. He looks like a bench guy to me.

12:08
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Over/under $110m for Yosmani Tomas:

12:08
Dave Cameron: I’ll go under.

12:08
Comment From 20longyears
You’re Neal Huntington. How much can/should you offer Russell Martin for his next contract? And how likely is it that the Pirates find a way to hold on to him?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Short-term, high AAV. 3/42 or something.

12:09
Comment From Sean
Is it just me or do a lot of fans think the Cardinals are older than they really are? Yes, Holliday, Wainwright, and Molina are the older statesmen of the group but a majority of the other players are extremely young.

12:10
Dave Cameron: Most of their youth is on the pitching side. The core group of position players — Holiday, Molina, Peralta — are all over 30, and Carpenter isn’t exactly a kid anymore.

12:11
Comment From Alex
As a Nats fan with a team that just clinched the division, is there any statistical evidence one way or another that says if it’s better to play out the season hard versus resting starters?

12:11
Dave Cameron: There is zero evidence that how a team finishes the regular season matters at all in the postseason. Take the rest, get as healthy as possible, and gear up for October.

12:12
Comment From Not Jerry DiPoto
What would you say would be a reasonable extension for Kole Calhoun?

12:12
Dave Cameron: He’s got one year of service, so it wouldn’t be much. Maybe 6/30 with a team option or two?

12:13
Comment From Dan
There’s been a lot of talk about the validity and accuracy of WAR recently. What of the major advanced stats are you most certain of and which do you take with a grain of salt?

12:14
Dave Cameron: It all depends on what question you’re asking. There are some questions that are easy to answer because they’re very basic — how many times did Player X walk last year? — and some questions that are more difficult because they are more involved. Offensive metrics are ahead of defensive metrics overall, but even with offensive numbers, you want to make sure you’re using the right tool for the job.

12:15
Comment From Dan
Could you see Posey at third next year with the emergence of Andrew Susac and the potential departure of Pablo Sandoval?

12:15
Dave Cameron: It doesn’t really make sense to move Posey off of catcher until it’s physically difficult for him to remain back there.

12:16
Comment From Paul
The Blue Jays’ rotation could soon include Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris, perhaps even at the start of next year. That leaves Dickey, Buehrle, Happ and (possibly) Morrow, so what do you think the Blue Jays should do with these surplus veterans, who are generally too old/expensive/not great to have much trade value?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Keep them all, let Sanchez and Norris continue to develop in the bullpen or the minors, and accept the fact that they’ll likely need 8-10 starters to get through 2015.

12:17
Comment From Who Cares
Random variation or not, it feels good to be an O’s fan today. Any thoughts on how their pitching matches up with the other playoff teams? No studs, but 4 #3’s should have a fighting chance, no?

12:18
Dave Cameron: The key will be to be aggressive with their bullpen usage. You don’t want Bud Norris facing the line-up multiple times in a playoff game. Get a few innings from a starter and then get to your relievers ASAP.

12:18
Comment From Kennys G.
Who actually breaks down batted ball info into FB/LD/GB profiles? Is that just the PITCHf/x system or am I missing something obvious?

12:19
Dave Cameron: PITCHF/x doesn’t measure batted balls; it’s just the pitch from the mound to the plate. We get our batted ball data from Baseball Info Solutions, though there are other companies (Inside Edge, Stats Inc) that also track such things.

12:19
Comment From Aint the beer cold
Can Steve Pearce sustain even 80% of this year’s production moving forward? His breakout actually started last year . . .

12:20
Dave Cameron: He’s been a +5 WAR guy this year, so 80% would make him a +4 WAR player going forward. Very little chance.

12:21
Comment From Tim
How close are to we to discerning which pitchers can limit how hard contact is with their balls in play – thus sustaining a low BABIP? Seems like a couple pitchers clearly can limit hard contact where we thought all pitchers were in the .290-.300 range.

12:21
Dave Cameron: We haven’t thought that all pitchers were .290 to .300 for years. Knuckleballers and fly ball guys can live in the .270 range.

12:23
Comment From Guest
Is Kiley going to do more prospect chats? Seems like he did one, and havent seen any others.

12:23
Dave Cameron: He’s going to be chatting every Friday going forward.

12:23
Comment From baltic wolf
There have been some comments in the Baltimore press that Joseph/Hundley are better at framing pitches than Wieters was. Where can I find info about this? And where do we stand as far as the ratings about this skill? Do you feel it can be measured reliably?

12:24
Dave Cameron: StatCorner.com has catcher framing ratings for every player for the last six years. I’m still a disbeliever in the range of runs saved being credited entirely to the catcher. I think it’s absolutely a skill, but it is not worth 30 or 40 runs at the extremes.

12:24
Comment From Gabes
How aggressive should Rick Hahn be this offseason? I’d like to see them make the most of Abreu’s prime years and Sale probably has a limited number of bullets in that elbow, but they’re more than “one piece away”

12:25
Dave Cameron: They should have another off-season as close to last year’s as possible. Continue to collect young, controllable players with uspide.

12:25
Comment From Doug
Do you think Arrieta has a chance of sustaining this success long-term?

12:25
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m a believer.

12:25
Comment From Craig
Do plate appearances for batters have the same value to a team as batters faced for pitchers? Kershaw has faced more batters than any other batter has plate appearances.

12:26
Dave Cameron: Position players also get to play the field, so PAs are not the entirety of a player’s value.

12:26
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Kluber over King Felix for CY at this point?

12:26
Dave Cameron: Nothing wrong with picking either. It’s very close.

12:27
Comment From Tim
Assuming you buy into the notion that WAR is fairly incomplete (especially given difference in pitcher WAR among websites) isn’t the real issue with pitcher-MVP the fact that we can’t REALLY compare Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw regarding impact on the game?

12:27
Dave Cameron: I’d say that the entire premise of your question is incorrect. We can measure Trout and Kershaw’s impact. It might not be precise, but we can get pretty close.

12:28
Comment From Guest
How do the nationals decide which three pitchers they use in the NLDS or will they?

12:28
Dave Cameron: There are very few off-days in the postseason schedule this year, so they’ll use four. It will be the regular rotation minus Roark, most likely.

12:29
Comment From Jeff
What does a 35 year old Nelson Cruz coming off big year in free agency get? Hard to imagine more than 3 years, 45 million?

12:29
Dave Cameron: 2/28, and the team that gives it to him regrets it by next May.

12:29
Comment From VMart
Am I about to get overpaid this winter!?

12:29
Dave Cameron: Wildly so.

12:30
Comment From Hamilton Porter
It’s official, Taveras won’t bust, but won’t ever live up to any of the expectations.

12:30
Dave Cameron: Pretty sure nothing is official after 200 at-bats.

12:31
Comment From Dylan Bundy
What kind of expectations do you have for me?

12:31
Dave Cameron: As with just about every pitcher with an arm problem, limited.

12:31
Comment From That One Guy
Dave, can you identify any CF that would be available in trade during the offseason that could be realistically acquired, i.e., would not require a team to trade a top-5 prospect or otherwise empty its entire system?

12:31
Dave Cameron: I doubt the Cardinals will keep both Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay for 2015.

12:32
Comment From hscer
Nats are going to be playing for HFA. lots of quotes in the postgame yesterday to suggest so

12:32
Dave Cameron: Which is why they scratched Gio Gonzalez from today’s start and are going with Blake Treinen instead?

12:33
Comment From Chase Headley
What the heck will I get in free agency?

12:33
Dave Cameron: 1/10.

12:33
Comment From RetireNutting
Starling Marte has a 195 wRC+ in 150 ABs in the second half of the season. Any evidence he’s figured something out and can do this sort of thing for a full year?

12:33
Dave Cameron: Second half performance is a worse indicator of future performance than full season performance. So no.

12:34
Comment From PR
if pedroia were a free agent, this offseason, what would he get?

12:34
Dave Cameron: 6/120, maybe?

12:34
Comment From Yuniesky Betancourt
If you were Brian Cashman how much would you offer for David Robertson?

12:35
Dave Cameron: Make him the qualifying offer. If he gets a better offer than that, probably let him go.

12:36
Comment From Market
Which struggling SP should teams attempt to convert into lights out relievers, a la Andrew Miller?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Trevor Bauer, maybe.

12:36
Comment From Nats fan
What kind of pitcher is Tanner Roark going forward? Who would be his best historical comp?

12:37
Dave Cameron: The best case scenario is that he’s Doug Fister.

12:37
Comment From hscer
as many great moves as Rizzo has made, the Soriano thing is one that definitely didn’t work out as planned

12:37
Dave Cameron: Not every move a team makes is the GMs decision.

12:38
Comment From Eric
Which signing from this past offseason will end up looking the worst?

12:38
Dave Cameron: Probably Choo.

12:40
Comment From Shamless Shoehorn
What type of changes do you expect MLB to do if offense keeps dropping like this? (since 2006 the changes have been extreme). And what type of changes would you do?

12:40
Dave Cameron: If they want to get run scoring back into the game, they’ll make the strike zone smaller again.

12:40
Comment From Zap Brannigan
How much stock do you put into the idea that some of Kershaw’s value translates to the bullpen? They can basically empty the pen the day before his starts and then have everyone fully rested on the day after. Seems a fairly significant factor.

12:40
Dave Cameron: Writing about this for tomorrow, in fact.

12:41
Comment From David
Given Gio’s bouts of wildness and pitch-inefficiency, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to plan on him only going twice through the order and schedule Roark for some long relief on those days…

12:42
Dave Cameron: Or maybe start Roark instead, let the opposing manager stack the line-up with lefties, and bring in Gio in the third or fourth inning.

12:43
Comment From Tim
Here’s why I think WAR is incomplete – bWAR says Stanton and Heyward are equally valuable. fWAR says Garrett Richards is 0.5 WAR better than Cueto (despite a 60 inning difference). Think I’m allowed a little skepticism here.

12:43
Dave Cameron: There’s a difference between educated objections and “I don’t like the conclusions so I’m going to reject something I don’t understand.”

12:43
Comment From Doug
What do you think of the plan to bring Tanaka back for a couple starts, to see if his elbow holds up? Would it be better just to shut him down, and give him prolonged rest until ST?

12:44
Dave Cameron: If you let him rest until ST, and he shows up in March with an elbow that needed surgery, it would have been been better to know that in September.

12:44
Comment From David
Wow. you think Pedroia would get 6/120 at his age after two straight years of decline?

12:45
Dave Cameron: He’s an excellent defensive second baseman whose decline has still left him as an average hitter, and if the wrist gets healthy, he could easily get back to being above average. He’s a +3 to +4 win player, and those guys go for $20 million a year.

12:46
Comment From Prich
If it were any other team (meaning, a team with moderate payroll limitations), would you offer the same advice re: Robertson?

12:46
Dave Cameron: A team with a lower payroll might not be able to risk the QO.

12:46
Dave Cameron: Which is another reason why the QO system is stupid.

12:47
Comment From e
Bauer hasn’t shown you anything that makes you think he might become a solid SP?

12:47
Dave Cameron: Anything is possible, but he strikes me as a guy who needs every bit of velo he can find.

12:48
Comment From Fan
Given their contracts, age and ability which 1B would you rather have going forward: Rizzo or Abreu?

12:48
Dave Cameron: Probably Rizzo, but it’s close.

12:48
Comment From Shamless Shoehorn
If the yankees offered Shane Greene, Luis Severino, J.R Murphy and another Top prospect to the Rockies for Tulo (plus his whole salary). What would the rockies say?

12:48
Dave Cameron: “Call us when you’re sober.”

12:49
Comment From BassmanUW
Should the Cubs be interested in Russell Martin on a higher AAV/shorter term contract? Welington Castillo is merely at best a fringe league average starter, Schwarber probably is 2 years away if he’s able to improve enough at catching to do it regularly at the MLB level, the next best catching prospect, Caratini, is in Low A and not a huge prospect, and the Cubs have money to spend.

12:49
Dave Cameron: Yeah, Martin makes a lot of sense for the Cubs.

12:49
Comment From Marlo
Why wouldnt more team annouce a SP, then switch to an opposite armed pitcher after the 1st? IS that just poor gamesmanship, or actually illegal?

12:50
Dave Cameron: It’s not worth the hassle in the regular season, unless it’s a final-game-of-the-year situation.

12:52
Comment From Bip
RE Pedroia: if he produced those 3-4 wins by hitting dingers and being bad at defense, then I could see 6/120, but not a player with his profile.

12:52
Dave Cameron: Jacoby Ellsbury just got 7/150 last winter.

12:53
Comment From Kretin
Why do we not see more front-loaded contracts?

12:53
Dave Cameron: Because they serve no purpose. The time value of money makes current cash more valuable to a team than a player, so backloading a deal allows a team to invest the saved present dollars in a way that the player does not.

12:53
Comment From Randy Johnson
Who is your favorite position player of all time?

12:53
Dave Cameron: Adrian Beltre, maybe.

12:53
Dave Cameron: Yadier Molina is up there too.

12:54
Comment From hscer
could the SP handedness switcharoo be worth the hassle for contenders in September with expanded rosters, to use sparingly

12:55
Dave Cameron: If you’re a team that needs every single win, perhaps. The Royals and Mariners should be considering it, for instance. But I’m sure there’s a “bad form” element to it, where the managers don’t want to make enemies.

12:58
Comment From Bip
Pedroia is younger than I thought he was, I thought he was like 33-34. Still, Ellsbury was coming off a *6* win season. A 6-win season for a guy like Prince Fielder involves 40+ homers. A 30-year-old coming off a 40+ homer season gets way more than 7/150

12:59
Dave Cameron: The question isn’t what a +3 to +4 WAR slugger would get this winter; the question was what Pedroia would get this winter.

12:59
Comment From Mark
We are almost certainly not going to have a player over 8 WAR this year and possibly only one or two over 7 WAR, which is historically rare. Does this say anything about MLB in general or is it just variance?

12:59
Dave Cameron: Trout is at 7.8 or something. I think he’s going to get over 8.

1:00
Dave Cameron: Okay, off to grab some lunch and get some work done. Thanks for hanging out, everyone.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

2 Comments
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Malcolm-Jamal Hegyes
9 years ago

Any chance for Hopeless Joe to have his own chat before his extinction

Ruki Motomiya
9 years ago

Personally? I’d say it’s hopeless. 🙂