Did Addison Russell Solve His Problem?

As a pitcher, when you look up and down that Cubs lineup from the mound, you probably get that sick feeling in your stomach. The National League team in the World Series has some scary bats in the top half of it lineup; with Willson Contreras and now Kyle Schwarber in the bottom half, you could have games featuring sluggers one through seven.

Imagine if they added a patient slugger with plus defense to the mix.

Of course, that precise description applies to Addison Russell sometimes. And sometimes it doesn’t. Like, when he was 1-for-his-first-24 plate appearances this postseason, it didn’t really seem to describe him. But then the shortstop went 9-for-his-next-27 and showed us how that Cubs lineup can turn over when there’s someone producing in the bottom third.

But which Russell will the Cubs get in the World Series? And what’s the reason for all this rollercoastering? There’s one quadrant in the zone with which Russell has struggled, and that’s the thing to watch, the bellwether for his production this series.

Russell likes the ball up. He likes it middle in, and that preference only gets more pronounced lower in the zone. You can tell from the fastballs at which he swings, whether you look at a sample from earlier (left) or later (right) in the season.

That approach has served him well over the course of the year this season, as he’s put in above-average slugging work and been generally league average. Despite the fact that he’s been near league average in both halves, though, it hasn’t been a story of consistency. His exit-velocity chart for the year tells the story a little better than his other outcome stats.

A couple good strong stretches, marred by three slow downs. His missing exit velocity on those balls in play coincided with a difficulty lifting the ball, too.

So you have a guy who likes the ball up, likes it in, but who’s also got a few serious stretches during which he can’t hit the ball hard and is hitting it on the ground. You know what chart is coming next, right? Here’s how often pitchers threw him a fastball low and away this year, as a percentage of all pitches.

It doesn’t line up perfectly in every instance, but particularly late in the season, you can see that pitchers were going to that quadrant low and in (and off) the plate more often, and Russell was struggling with that approach.

Even in his magical run since Game Four of the National League Championship Series began, there have been pitchers who have successfully executed that new game plan against Russell. Check out this plate appearance against Kenta Maeda. The shortstop struck out after four straight sliders low and away.

But even if certain pitchers have successfully executed their plan, that doesn’t mean Russell hasn’t adapted. Game Four really may have been a catalyst for change. At the very least, Russell showed that he can do something other than “not swing” on pitches low and away.

First, he flied out on a pitch low and in from Julio Urias in the second inning. The next time he came up against the young lefty, Russell remained aggressive in a quadrant that’s not usually his best. After a fastball and curveball missed below the zone, Russell was ready for a fastball low and away. Nearly 400 feet later, the Cubs were up, 4-0.

Next, Russell faced Ross Stripling. The Dodgers righty started him with a curveball low and away on the first pitch, and Russell didn’t swing. Then a high four-seam was out of the zone. Russell fouled off pitch three, which was in tight but in the zone. After two more pitches outside of the zone high, Stripling tried to go to a slider low and away to finish off Russell. Surprisingly, Russell swung at a pitch that was outside of the zone and not in an area of strength. He dribbled a soft single.

That ball in play had an expected batting average of zero according to Statcast, and it’s easy to see why with your eyes, since the second baseman threw the ball away.

Still, two good outcomes for him on pitches low and away, and here came Alex Wood (one at-bat after Russell saw just one pitch low and away from Luis Avilan and flied out). Wood started Russell off with a changeup low and off the plate for a first pitch, the shortstop pounced on a fastball low and away for a more legit single (.819 xBA given the exit velo and launch angle).

These good outcomes didn’t completely alter the Dodgers’ approach to Russell, but it did change things a bit. The next time Stripling saw Russell, he threw high and tight a bit more but didn’t abandon the low-and-away quadrant. Except this time he couldn’t get a slider down enough, and Russell got a single.

And that’s the story that you see in Russell’s Game Six double off of Clayton Kershaw, and his Game Five home run off of Joe Blanton — all three were sliders, probably headed for low and away, that didn’t quite get there.

It’s too much to say that Russell has changed fundamentally. He’s still the guy that has produced this BaseballSavant exit-velocity heat map over his career.

It’s also too much to say that he should swing more often at those pitches — they aren’t his pitches. But is it unreasonable to suggest that, if opponents are attacking him in the low-and-away quadrant, that he has to both show them that he can do damage on those pitches while also exhibiting selectivity there? And that lowering his hands, as he said he did after Game Four, might be the right way to convince pitchers of both?

Russell holding his hands higher on a September homer (left) than before his October homer off of Urias (right).

When I asked Joey Votto how he’d turned his season around this year, and how he’d convinced pitchers to stop throwing inside on him finally, he was succinct: “You have to burn them,” the Reds first baseman said. He said you have to swing at some of those pitches and do something with them, or the book would never change.

Maybe Russell was showing those Dodgers pitchers that he was willing to go swing there if they thought that was the book. The question is, now that he’s burned them, how will pitchers approach the shortstop in the World Series?