Edwin Encarnacion Is Not Your Typical Slugger

Hank Aaron. Barry Bonds. Albert Pujols. Edwin Encarnacion.

If one of those names doesn’t seem to fit, perhaps you haven’t been paying close enough attention in 2013. (And you probably didn’t read Dave Cameron’s trade value column.) The fact that Encarnacion is third in the majors in home runs and fourth in runs batted in doesn’t put him in elite company in historic terms, though.

No, it’s something Encarnacion is not doing that makes him unique.

Encarnacion is just not striking out.

At least, not by typical slugger standards. Through 202 games and 444 plate appearances, Encarnacion has struck out just 46 times, an obscenely low rate for a power hitter. No other player in the top-10 for home runs this year even sniffs his 10.5% K-rate and Adrian Beltre is the only one who tops him in the top-68.

The list of boppers with low raw strikeout rates is thin and elite, though there are an abundance of examples. However, Encarnacion is playing at the height of strikeouts in terms of league era. So when we consider league context and create K%+, a shorthand that shows how far above or below league average someone was with respect to strikeouts, what Encarnacion is accomplishing stands out.

The table below shows the lowest K%+ rates since 1961 for players with a home run per plate appearance (HR/PA) rate of 6% or greater. That 6% mark has been hit 425 times in that span, or about eight times per year, thus denoting players among the power-hitting elite.

Season	Name	Team	Age	PA	HR	wRC+	K%	K+	hr/pa
2004	Barry Bonds	Giants	39	617	45	233	6.60%	39.1	7.29%
2004	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	24	692	46	171	7.50%	44.4	6.65%
2002	Barry Bonds	Giants	37	612	46	244	7.70%	45.8	7.52%
2006	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	26	634	49	174	7.90%	47.0	7.73%
1969	Hank Aaron	Braves	35	639	44	170	7.40%	48.7	6.89%
2009	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	29	700	47	180	9.10%	50.6	6.71%
1993	Frank Thomas	White Sox	25	676	41	171	8.00%	53.0	6.07%
2013	Edwin Encarnacion	Blue Jays	30	439	28	149	10.50%	53.3	6.38%
2000	Todd Helton	Rockies	26	697	42	162	8.80%	53.3	6.03%
2011	Adrian Beltre	Rangers	32	525	32	134	10.10%	54.3	6.10%

Elite company, indeed. It appears Encarnacion has become one of the masters of hitting home runs without striking out, an appreciable trait. After all, strikeouts aren’t necessarily bad but fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, potential fly balls, thus producing more opportunity for home runs (and sacrifice flies, hits, etc).

Encarnacion’s drop in strikeout rate hasn’t come from being more passive, though, as passivity could detract from a power-hitting approach. Instead, Encarnacion has a swing rate a little below his career average the past two years and has instead been selectively aggressive with pitches outside the zone, displaying a major spike in O-Contact%.

Year	2B	HR	XBH	150-gm Pace	K%	O-Contact%	SwStr%
2005	16	9	25	54	25.6%	44.8%	10.6%
2006	33	15	49	63	16.7%	48.3%	8.7%
2007	25	16	42	45	15.4%	57.0%	9.8%
2008	29	26	56	58	17.5%	62.0%	8.7%
2009	11	13	26	46	19.8%	64.0%	7.9%
2010	16	21	37	58	16.3%	68.2%	8.3%
2011	36	17	53	59	14.5%	74.0%	7.1%
2012	24	42	66	66	14.6%	72.4%	7.2%
2013	20	28	49	73	10.4%	77.1%	6.0%

Once again Edwin is tops among 2013’s home run leaders, leading the way in O-Contact% and SwStr%. Beltre is close again and teammate Jose Bautista isn’t far off, but Encarnacion rules the roost for those with 20-plus homers.

There’s one other thing you may have caught as you perused these numbers – Encarnacion has more extra base hits (49) than strikeouts (46). This alone isn’t that rare, with 567 players having done it since 1961. But it’s more rare for sluggers, as only about two players a season, on average, hit 30 home runs and have more extra base hits than strikeouts. If we want to get really specific, he’d be just the 69th player with 30HR and more extra base hits and more walks than strikeouts.

With all of that said, this is more just an interesting case than anything of inherent value (e.g. there was no connection between K%+ and wRC+). It’s certainly not a bad thing, and it might also be an additional signal that Encarnacion’s improvements at the plate are real and tangible. Perhaps most importantly, it’s a good sign for his continued power output – fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, and for Encarnacion that means more fly balls, letting his top-20 HR/FB rate go to work.