Effective W-L Records

Over at the Inside the Book: Blog a week or two ago, TangoTiger discussed a method in which a pitcher’s “effective win-loss record” could be calculated using primarily the +WPA and -WPA components found here at Fangraphs. For all of the gory details, click here. For more of a calculation summation, this modified record can be produced by doing the following:

1) Double the +WPA and -WPA, otherwise known as Win Advancement and Loss Advancement
2) Regardless of the + or -, add the WA and LA (if a pitcher has a +8.50 +WPA and -6.50 -WPA, he would have 17 WA and 13 LA)
3) This new number gives us the GA, Game Advancements
4) Multiply the GA by .308
5) Subtract the product from #4 from the WA and LA to get the ‘Effective W-L’

With the exporting feature on the leaderboards I was able to enter this into a spreadsheet to calculate the effective w-l record of all those who qualify. Via winning percentage, the top five pitchers in this category are:

1) Ryan Dempster, .823 (12.3-2.6)
2) Cliff Lee, .813 (14.1-3.2)
3) Tim Lincecum, .724 (13.2-5.0)
4) Justin Duchsherer, .705 (9.6-4.0)
5) CC Sabathia, .691 (14.0-6.3)

Ian Snell clocked in with the lowest winning percentage, a .328 spawned from his 5.8-12.0 effective record. To view the spreadsheet I used and see everyone’s winning percentage, click here.

Whether or not this metric will find itself ingrained in the general saberstream or not is yet to be determined but it definitely serves the purpose of leveling out a pitcher’s record. By adjusting it to be indicative of the positive and negative shifts in win expectancy we are really looking at how much a pitcher helped his team win or lose.