Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/20/14

Eno Sarris: I’ll be here shortly. In the meantime, anyone get a Steely Dan vibe from this?

bellesglasgow:

Eno Sarris: Ooops. Forgot to publish this. I’ll give y’all a second. It’ll be like a real-time lightning round!

Comment From Guest
pew pew

Comment From Guest
::lightning::

Comment From Greg
Let’s dance!

Eno Sarris: It’s only us here now.

Comment From Dayton Moore
you’re clearly a bay area homer rawwwrrrr

Eno Sarris: Well I live here, so if you mean homer in that I write about these topics more because I hear about the teams more and know more about the teams and am in the clubhouses more, you got me. Rooting has devolved into rooting for stories and specific players though.

Comment From Why Alex Gordon should have gone for it
Even if they didn’t win the world series, alex gordon had a chance to create one of the greatest baseball moments of all time. If successful, it probably would have been the greatest ever.

Eno Sarris: I think he would have been thrown out and it would have been a stain on his career.

Comment From Why Alex Gordon should have gone for it
It was clear from the footage, God wanted Alex Gordon to go home

Eno Sarris: Which is awesome. He’s a gamer, he wanted to push it. I love him as a player and as an interview. Dedicated himself, changed himself, and came back to the bigs ready to compete in every area of the game.

Comment From hscer
Babe Ruth once lost a WS on a CS. Nobody seems to care. /cuts off anyone claiming I’m comparing Gordon and Ruth as players

Eno Sarris: Well that’s a cool tidbit I’d never heard before.

Comment From Greg
the Mets have all the pitching, will they go use it to acquire a bat? Cespedes would be a start somewhere.

Eno Sarris: If anyone wants Niese, Colon, Gee or any combo of the three, they can probably have them for offense. Does anyone want them?

Comment From hscer
Ich denke, ich hatte eine Frage, aber ich habe es vergessen. Verdammt.

Eno Sarris: I’ll give you some time.

Comment From john
Eno! So if RAJ or Dayton Moore gave either Billy Butler or Michael Cuddyer the contracts that they received from more saber-minded GMs, they would be getting KILLED right now. True/false.

Eno Sarris: A lot of people hated both of those contracts. Dave Cameron, I believe, hates both of those contracts. I kinda hate the Cuddyer one, but here’s something: right-handed power. In both cases, the teams acquiring the bats needed them. Also: most of my post would not have applied had Butler signed the same contract with the Royals.

Comment From Jack
Eno, thanks for chatting! Based on lineup optimization, your best hitters should be 2nd and 4th. Can you explain this to me? I don’t understand why you wouldn’t bat your best guy first and second best guy second, and so on and so forth.

Eno Sarris: I think it’s because of OBP and SLG, to speak roughly and generally. Imagine the perfect scenario: #1 gets on, #2 hits over, #3 gets on or hits over, #4 slugs them all in. With OBP around .330, you’re likely to get one guy on. Then you get your best chance with your cleanup hitter on in the first inning. After that, yeah I guess you just want more PAs for the best guys. But there are 162 first innings at least.

Comment From beermeister jones
kuhnhenn raspberry eisbock release! should I try to trade for some @ $30/12.7oz?

Eno Sarris: That is SO pricey. I don’t even love Cascade but the cascade blackcap sour is less than that per ounce.

Eno Sarris: (and good)

Comment From beerack obeerma
Although the comment section got a little…rough re: Cole Hamels, is there any truth in the concept of a market price v. inherent price distinction? That is to say, Jeff may be right that inherently he doesn’t have that much value; but when the music stops and someone in need of a good SP doesn’t have one, Hamels is there…

Eno Sarris: I think it’s a hugely important thing that’s coming up right now in trade talks for Hamels. Phillies say: He’s a top-five pitcher in the league (which i agree with). Other team says: Yeah but we have to pay him like that. I think the return (if there is one, this sort of conversation may not lead to trading him) will be underwhelming to some.

Comment From Badison Mumgarner
ENO TIMMEEE http://38.media.tumblr.com/…

Comment From cardsjason
What level of defensive player would you expect out of George Springer next season? Steamer doesn’t like his D. Also, favorite Russian Imperial Stout,

Eno Sarris: I think he’s a good defensive guy based on tools alone. I can’t believe he’ll be a negative in the corner. I like Parabola from Firestone Walker, but Alesmith Speedway Stout (and especially the variants like the vietnamese coffee) will always be my favorite.

Comment From john
I see everyone wants the mets to trade for a SS, and yet the only SS they can realistically afford (prospects wise) are not upgrades over Wilmer Flores. Ramirez projects to be 0.3 wins better, but gets paid 10 mil vs the league minimum, and flores will still only be 23 on opening day. Gregorius is a downgrade, wins wise, and so is owings and miller. Why give up a cost-controlled pitcher for a non-upgrade? It makes no sense. At this point, if they cant get Tulo, they should just go with what they have

Eno Sarris: I don’t believe the projections for Flores. I don’t believe he’s a shortstop defensively.

Comment From Miketron
So are we sure that Shelby Miller is broken, not just figured out?

Eno Sarris: I think he could throw the cutter more. 310 of them he’s thrown and it’s above-average by whiffs, grounders, movement and velocity. It’d be a wrinkle. Plus he just started throwing more two-seamers this year.

Comment From Dayton Moore
I meant your fawning over Billy Beane for signing the similarly-named Butler, obviously.

Eno Sarris: Fawning. I said it “might not be crazy.” Fawning.

Comment From Guest
Hi Eno, pitchFX classified curves… some have lots of vertical break like a Mike Fiers, some are more of a slurve like Kluber, some are just plain nasty both horizontally and vertically like wainwright…. to say that a hitter has a given wRC+ vs “CU” seems a bit misleading to me. Is it possible that hitters hit certain “types” of curves better than others? also, what is the most important attribute of having a good curve? break? spin rate? consistent arm slot relative to the fastball? sorry for the whopper…. doing some deep dive on curve balls data and would appreciate ur thoughts

Eno Sarris: Yes, I do try to avoid the hitter vs pitch type thing because of exactly this. Maybe at some point we can be more sophisticated and say, this guy has problems with pitches with vertical break, this one has trouble with pitches with horizontal break.

For curves, the big yakkers, the 6/-6 pitches, those I think tend to get fewer whiffs. They’re slow, the batters see them, and they don’t swing. They can be used well for called strikes. The tighter curves, like Kimbrel’s power curve slider thing, those are better for whiffs. More like a slider.

Comment From Guest
Castro to the Mets makes stupid amounts of sense, no?

Comment From Cichago Cubs
Do you agree that it’s quite stupid to trade Castro? Prospects are not 100% and neither are pitchers. Castro is in the bag already.

Eno Sarris: I mean the Mets need a shortstop in my estimation. But the second is also true. They don’t yet have another shortstop that has shown he’s worthy in the major leagues!

Comment From Guest
Did you hear about Mr. Met? Goodnight, sweet prince. http://www.clickhole.com/ar…

Eno Sarris: 1) Dammit clickhole.
2) NOOOOOOOOOO
3) http://www.fangraphs.com/no…

Comment From matt
What’s an appropriate price in fangraphs points for a top closer? Chapman, Kimberly etc

Eno Sarris: I don’t need to push past $15 really. They only go for $12-15 in the draft. Maybe for the best two (Kimberly autocorrect lolz) you can push it to 18 or so. 20 seems wrong.

Comment From Guest
Ruth CS to end the WS was in 1926.

Eno Sarris: Well my excuse was that I wasn’t up that late and it wasn’t on tv.

Comment From Rated Rookie
I’m in San Diego–WHY DOES ANYONE EVER LEAVE THIS PARADISE?

Eno Sarris: I can’t wait to go down for winter meetings. Have the FanGraphs brewery tour planned already.

Comment From Anthony
Eno, has your impression of the Cuddyer signing changed since the Russell Martin and Victor Martinez signings, and the Stanton extension? Alderson indicated that he thought the market would run high this year, and that’s why he was okay with 2 years / $21 million (plus probably $10 million value of the first rounder)?

Eno Sarris: It’s pretty crazy what the D-first catcher and the old DH got. Numbers starting to get nutty.

Comment From john
As per Petriello;s article on the jays and going for it, and knowning they need a 2b, can Murphy net anything? The mets wont extend him, or offer him a QO, so isnt this the best time to get ANYTHING for him?

Eno Sarris: I’m in this camp. I think his D was always shaky and will get worse, and he’s a BABIP-dependent contact guy at the plate. I mean I kinda like him, but not if someone will give the Mets something for him.

Comment From RotoLando
Why does Billy Butler lack real HR power?

Eno Sarris: He does hit a ton of grounders. Just a bad plane for power.

Comment From hscer
Is it odd that Butler went from an organization with one reputation to one with the opposite reputation because the latter organization behaved as the former usually does?

Eno Sarris: I thought it was a delightful transaction. Immediately wanted to write about it, and started thinking as I was racing after my kid around the house.

Comment From john
hated is one thing, receiving ridicule is another… and I thought dave did a fox piece about how the cuddyer deal might not be so bad

Eno Sarris: Truth. Because wins 82-88 may be worth more now with the second wild card. The market seems to be zooming though.

Comment From Cichago Cubs
I fail to see how the Cubs will not be great. Unless they are bad in the clutch. But what the the odds that happens for a 15th year in a row?

Eno Sarris: Let’s not tempt fate.

Comment From make WAR not love
Founders backwoods bastard – wow thats bourbon-y. You a fan of barrel aged beers?

Eno Sarris: I wasn’t at first, and something tells me I wouldn’t like Avery’s Uncle Jacob (17.5% ABV), but if it’s more like 12% I can handle it and they have so much taste and mouthfeel. They are great beers.

Comment From Sleigh-er
Based on Heyward’s DSR in RF, he could play decent CF right? (I read DrewGROF’s article)

Eno Sarris: The Braves played him there sometimes. Which suggests to me he can do it. Jay’s pretty bad… but Bourjos plus Jay? Might be worth keeping Heyward in the corner more often.

Comment From prognostic8r
Country breakfast gonna drink all the craft beer in the bay area leaving you thirsty and beerless, you should be hating this trade!!!!!!!!

Eno Sarris: Really? He likes craft beer? I do look forward to talking to him again.

Comment From GSon
There has been “talk” about the Indians shopping Nick Swisher. A story (Daily Dish) indicated that Swish back to the NYY’s would make sense.. How likely do you see that?

Eno Sarris: $30m and he’s projected for a half win… unlikely.

Comment From Cichago Cubs
I don’t get Butler hate. He has a lot of years left in my opinion. KC wanted players to hit more grounders as a philosophy

Eno Sarris: Certainly seems that way. They’ve led the league in grounders for a while.

Comment From Forsyth
shouldn’t this be called the Eno Sarris Beerball Chat?

Comment From Cichago Chubs
C.H.U.D.

Comment From Greg
the Mets trio could probably fetch a Carlos Quentin in return, bench guy.

Eno Sarris: Sad but true lude.

Comment From mtsw
Given what we know about Billy Beane isn’t it rational to give him the benefit of the doubt on Billy Butler? The difference between him and RAJ/Dayton Moore is process: if he signed Butler there was probably an intelligent reason, versus a bad GM who would’ve just overvalued his power.

Eno Sarris: I don’t know, man, the question exhausts me. I’m in the Oakland and SF clubhouses all the time, so when the A’s made a transaction everyone hated, I jumped on it from the other side.

I’m German. Consensus freaks the heck out of me. I wrote an article about how saber the Giants were and how the Marlins were well-run. I like to think I always look at the other side.

Would I do it for the Phillies? I don’t know, it would depend on the transaction. But I did just write a story about Shelby Miller when most people liked the trade for the Cards. I do this all the time.

Comment From Chest Rockwell
Kimbrel is owed $33 million over the next 3 years, realistically, what kind of return could the Braves get for him? What if they packaged him with an Upton? Or is that too much salary to move?

Eno Sarris: Hard to tell. It’s like the second-best closer on an almost free agent deal. I suppose he’d get more years and more money on the market, so he is attractive. But what teams really want to go out there and trade for a dominant closer? I think he stays.

Comment From Guest
Oh man I heard that Abita’s bourbon stout is aged in Pappy barrels.

Eno Sarris: 50/50 in Truckee has one too I think.

Comment From Stephen
Ever heard of the Stanford Swing? I heard the term recently but I’m having a hard time finding out exactly what it is.

Eno Sarris: Wrote a whole piece about it in last year’s Hardball Times Annual. Short version: Stanford players are taught to put their foot down really quickly (“you can’t hit with your foot in the air”) and then try to spray up the middle. Some people call that robotic (quoted Keith Law as saying as much). But if you hit when you get to Stanford, you don’t get taught the swing. Carlos Quentin does not swing with the Stanford Swing because Carlos Quentin mashed. Also, Stanford has sent more people to the major leagues than everyone save a handful of schools, and when a school has accrued more WAR than Stanford it’s usually because they churned out a star more recently like Ryan Braun when Stanford’s best was a while back in Mike Mussina.

Comment From gump
did you ever publish the ordered list of states for beergraphs or do we have to read each new post? want to know when mine is coming up

Eno Sarris: I’ll have a link going back. What’s your state?

Comment From hscer
What’s the Marlins’ 2015-17 ceiling if they build on the Stanton contract?

Eno Sarris: They had a decent offense last year and their pitching is about to get better. I think they could win the division in the next three years.

Comment From Stephen
If all the musicians fought all the artists in the world, who would win?

Eno Sarris: Look I know a couple of artists are ‘cut your own ear off’ crazy, but musicians, man, they know how to party and if you party enough, late enough, you end up in a fight. I’ll pick the Badfish.

Comment From Andrew
I have Bryant and Machado in a limited keeper with one UTIL spot. Should I hold on to both in anticipation of a position change for one or both or cut one loose?

Eno Sarris: Hold both. I think Bryant might be headed to the outfield myself.

Eno Sarris: (It’s been a while since I’ve seen him play third, I’ll admit. But he’s huge. And the hands weren’t great when i saw him.)

Comment From john
but the question is, does Montero or Syndergaard or wheeler or degrom or matz, would you give up any of those mets pitchers for didi gregorius or alexi ramirez? because niese or gee are not getting the job done

Eno Sarris: Yes this is the question. I get Nervous around DeGrom, Syndergaard, would say no there. I know some people I trust that love Matz. Montero is good, but I *might* trade him. I like his fastball, and command, but the secondary stuff..

Comment From Dayton Moore
I’m being facetious, Eno 🙂

Eno Sarris: Phew

Comment From Guest
Hey Eno, is it just me, or are the yankees being suspiciously quiet? Big (ish) move on the way? or just not much going on?

Eno Sarris: I think they need some pitching. Probably working on that.

Comment From Gareth
If you and peak afro coco crisp had a head butting contest, who would win?

Eno Sarris: Coco by a mile. I have limp white person hair. It can look big but it’s not tough.

Comment From Marty
Is Heyward a top 40 fantasy OF?

Eno Sarris: He was 34th last year in a down year. Yes.

Comment From Tim
Should Archie Bradley still be viewed as a potential rotation ace?

Eno Sarris: Obviously more dings, but it’s all about finding some command.

Comment From Matt
I finally got a teaching interview a week ago and now they have contacted my references. Good sign?

Eno Sarris: yes! buy a good beer tonight! maybe don’t tweet about it though. they might be watching.

Comment From hscer
Aren’t shortstops just hard to find, period? I mean the Cardinals let Pete Kozma do it for a year.

Comment From dbet
At first I thought we were talking about Jason Castro at short….

Eno Sarris: That would be an interesting solution.

Comment From GSon
Eno.. how do Indians’s fans get you to fawn over the Indians $ 3.5 MM Starting Rotation like you fawn over Billy Butler?. Should the Indians pitchers change their names to Billy Bauer, Billy Kluber, Billy Carrasco and Billy House?. would that do it?.

Eno Sarris: Oh my god I love that rotation. I was set to write the Petriello piece about how I like the Indians so much next year. I’ve written interviews with Kluber and coined Kluberization, I fawned over Salazar even as Salazar was stinking, I was all over Carrasco before Carrasco was Carrasco….

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Are prospects no longer as valuable as they were 5 years ago? Seems like every trade back then was a MLB player for prospects, and now its all based around current MLBers.

Eno Sarris: The Cespedes for Lester thing was amazing. This is what I think: since 85 wins is a good projection now, and a team that good can win it all, the pressure is on fielding a good team this year. So moving from 78 to 83 wins is huge. So why wait around when you can get a guy who can help you do that right now?

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
You- “what I wrote wouldn’t apply to KC” is techinically true, but isn’t that the point of the bias? If Oak signs him, FG digs deep to explain it, if KC does, its a simple bad contract article and move on. It isn’t really that hard to accept that even smart people make mistakes.

Eno Sarris: This is why this is exhausting to me, at it’s core. I am not FG. I am one man who writes on a site. You know, we used to write about every major transaction from both sides when we had a bigger staff. That was an organizational thing. What happened with that article was a man named Eno Sarris thought “hey why did the A’s do this?”

Comment From Hole Camels
If Hamels gets traded to either Boston or Toronto, how much does his fantasy value suffer? He’s probably good for a few more wins on a decent team, but he’s a homer prone guy who might be headed to a bad park for HR. Between the park adjustment, the schedule factors mentioned earlier this week, and the DH, aren’t we looking at something much closer to a top 30SP than the season he just turned in? Am I crazy for thinking hes a 3.75/1.20/8.50 in Toronto?

Eno Sarris: Citizens Bank hasn’t been playing like the homer haven it used to be, but it is interesting that he’s not a groundball guy and he’s had many years with 1+ HR/9. With offense down, I’d make that 3.55/1.18/8.5 in a bad park in AL I think.

Comment From Gareth
What percentage will butler be used at DH and first base?

Eno Sarris: Beane says 1b v LHP only.

Comment From jocephus
create a fangraphs brewery and make a beer that tastes like an old catchers mitt

Eno Sarris: When I was homebrewing more, I had all sorts of beer names based on players. Brett Pillsner.

Comment From Bonus Wagner
That body should age well.

Eno Sarris: Right on the cutoff I used for ‘big players’ at 240, so yeah, could be some DL time in his future based on what I found. But he’s been very healthy and they buying 28-31, not 31-34.

Comment From jocephus
have you sampled butlers BBQ sauce

Eno Sarris: this sounds sexy

Comment From mtsw
Based on Moneyball maybe Billy Beane just has a thing for fat players? Sandoval next?

Eno Sarris: I’m not going to lie I got a DM from a writer who covers the team that was about how Beane loves bad-looking bodied guys lol.

Comment From Snarfle
I’m not gonna lie Eno, I was in a bad way yesterday. Maybe these clouds finally got to me. I dunno. But today, it’s only 9:23 for us, and I’ve already had DMV success when I was sure that I would fail due to not having my passport on me or something, and I fixed the thing with my car AND I may have solved the mystery of the noise that happens sometimes when we turn the heat on. It’s the little things Eno. The little things.

Eno Sarris: One man lude.

Comment From Beanie
What do you make of the rumor that the Padres are preparing to make a big splash?

Eno Sarris: They contacted Pablo and have have new ownership…

Comment From hscer
I have no particularly good quizzes to share today. I guess this one: http://www.sporcle.com/game…

Comment From Beau
Who would you keep Soler or Cespedes? Assuming Cesp stays in Boston

Eno Sarris: Oh man I usually say the more established guy but I’m feeling giddy about Soler and you could own him for longer, since he’s 7 years younger!

Comment From mtsw
Would you support paring the divisons in baseball back down to 4 total? Seems like elite teams clustering in divisions like AL East is a persistent problem.

Eno Sarris: Oh four total. I thought you meant four per league, which could fix some wild card issues. The schedule being unbalanced seems unfair at times, it does. Especially with interleague. At least it’s not football with 16 games and ‘first place schedules’.

Comment From Jimbo
HEY! ENO! Look over there!!! (gently strokes your hair as you look away)

Comment From Badison Mumgarner
JUpton would make sense in RF for the yankees. do they have the trade assets to make this happen? would something like mason williams and phelps get this done?

Eno Sarris: Not sure they have the horses to get thid done.

Comment From Guest
??-Bourjos-Heyward. Who needs to play LF to make that OF defense better than Gordon-Dyson-Cain?

Eno Sarris: As bad as Jay is in center, in the corner, that might get close.

Comment From Snarfle
I believe in a Heyward breakout for a bunch of reasons you’re not supposed to: change of scenery, contract year, Cards magic (the gathering). That and he’s incredibly athletic.

Eno Sarris: Change of scenery could mean change of approach with a new coach. He used to have a more power-happy swing, could get back to that.

Comment From hscer
the Royals: the Singles and Steals offense

Eno Sarris: Not to go on a rant, but I DID INVESTIGATE what made the Royals great. Just because some people didn’t read that piece didn’t mean it didn’t happen. I looked at regular- and post-season correlations for K% and BsR, for example. I looked at four decades worth of regular-season correlations to see if K% was more important now than before.

Comment From Andrew
Is Adam LaRoche going to be more or less of a value after the Butler signing?

Eno Sarris: Well older, but plays in field and has had better seasons (without looking). But one less team that could want him, so price goes down. More.

Comment From jjdouglas
Re: Elite RP in FGpts (Ottoneu). Typically undervalued IMO. Yes, relievers have risk, but the points above replacement level (~150-200) that you get from a top RP over a replacement level RP comes at a cheaper price than buy ~200 extra points at another position OF, SP, MI, etc. If you can load up on reasonably priced elite RP, even if they cost $15, you can afford to save a lot more money at other positions – spending less on SP for example.

Comment From Guest
Is Miggy at $72 worth keeping in ottoneu?

Eno Sarris: If you’re competitive, yes. He’ll go for nearly that much in auction anyway.

Comment From SF Dave
I can’t stay, I have to teach stacking cups to the kids at Robert Louis Stevenson elementary school in the sunset. Yea, teaching Physical Education in the rain can still be awesome. You know what they say: Those that can’t do, teach and those who can’t teach, teach PE!

Comment From Gareth
Belly Butler

Comment From HO-Scaled Misanthrope
Alex Gordon would have been safe. The throw would have arrived at home when Gordon was still close enough to 3B to retreat safely.

Comment From john
du claw sweet baby jesus… peanut butter cup in a bottle

Comment From Derek
Stanford Swing is chopping the ball into the ground

Comment From Gareth
People seem to have forgotten about Prince fielder. How do you see him performing next year for texas after his injury plagued 2014?

Eno Sarris: .275+/25+ with a bit of missed time for some other ailment.

Comment From Drew
What are some reasons to believe in an Andrus bounceback year?

Eno Sarris: He’s the same guy as Alcides Escobar?

Comment From IsIt2015Yet?!
Think Pittsburgh has any chance to improve on last year after losing Russ Martin, replacing him with Cervilli (and Stewart), adding AJ Burnett (again), and likely signing one more FA SP?

Eno Sarris: Based mostly on improvement from young players. Not sure Mercer has any more improvement left, but I love Polanco and think he’s got more in him. Plus I like some of their young starters in the minors.

Comment From Sno Earris
Buying low on McCann for next season? Seems like a good bounce back candidate after he hit an .817 OPS in Sept/Aug.

Eno Sarris: yeah I think he can be good even while being shifted. Perfect park for him.

Comment From Chest Rockwell
Players with a higher ISO than Billy Butler: Denard Span, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jordy Mercer, Jose Altuve, Jose Reyes, also 110 other guys. That’s not exactly intriguing power for a player who doesn’t play a position.

Eno Sarris: Correction: a higher “2014” iso.

Comment From gump
would also be helpful to filter by state on the leaderboards rather than region, but understand if not possible

Eno Sarris: It is possible. Click the state in the leaderboard and you get it. Or manipulate the URL, look see: http://www.beergraphs.com/l…

Comment From Chest Rockwell
Musicians by a landslide.

Eno Sarris: Totally.

Comment From klof
what’s up with almanac’s distribution? CA, NV, and… NY? i came across it in an amazing grocery store in the hudson valley and got a few. seems like an odd collection of states.

Eno Sarris: Distribution in general is super weird. It’s also kind of magical because it makes beer more regional.

Comment From dbet
Do you think that Mejia long term will be a closer? I love watching that guy pitch, and the stomp is the best closer celebration out there.

Eno Sarris: Yes and yes.

Eno Sarris: Just can’t stay healthy as a starter.

Comment From Shameless Shoehorn
Would you rather: Be Mike Trout, or Giancarlo Stanton?

Eno Sarris: 1) California. 2) Angels.

Comment From Shameless Shoehorn
Have you ever played competitive baseball?

Eno Sarris: I was really really really bad in high school. Was it competitive? I might have seen some guys hit 75, saw some breaking balls. Didn’t hit many.

Comment From SmoothCootah
my swag is Jay Buhner

Comment From SmoothCootah
What minor league pitcher right now do you see as the highest likely future “ace” (use your own definition of ace)

Eno Sarris: Syndergaard has good velocity, decent command, and three pitches now that he developed his change further in Vegas. I really like Henry Owens, more than I should I guess. Giolito sexy. Walker. Give me Thor.

Comment From marvandthethronemarys
Hi Eno…who breaks out and who just breaks? Keuchel, Hutchison, Fiers, Hahn, Wada.

Eno Sarris: Wada makes me super nervous at 87 or whatever. Not big into him. Hahn has the injury history, might be most likely to ‘break’ but I like him. If ranking, Keuchel Hahn Hutch Fiers.

Comment From Hawkins
Do you have some sort of hub for all of your pictures of different pitch grips? I would love to be able to compare different pitchers grips of the same pitch side-by-side.

Eno Sarris: Working on this. You can see my articles at enosarris.com in the meantime.

Comment From Zach
Three quick keep-forever keeper questions (say that three times fast): 1) Kipnis or Wong? 2) Trade Kemp to make room to keep Heyward? 3) Bailey, Gausman or Carrasco for last pitching keeper? THANKS ENO!

Eno Sarris: I like what Wong is doing but Kipnis for sure. I’d trade Kemp even though i think he can .280/20+/10 next year. 3) Carrasco based on youth stuff and health.

Comment From Bill (Antioch, CA)
Who replaces Panda, assuming he is a goner (which looks likely)?

Eno Sarris: If it was me, Headley.

Comment From Joe
I have you down for these pitchers to watch for 2015: Allen Webster, Randall Delgado, Chase Anderson, TJ House, Cory Rasmus, David Hale, Henry Owens, Danny Salazar. Any others you like?

Eno Sarris: Shane Greene. After more investigation, I’ve reversed my stance on him. Heard he’s working on refining a pitch, too. Also, Delgado and Hale and Rasmus are on the back end — deep league pickups at best.

Comment From mtsw
In retrospect, the chapter of Moneyball about the draft is hilarious, since it’s all Lewis talking about what a genius Beane is to be passing over a bunch of future stars to pick guys who never ended up playing in the majors.

Comment From Dylan
Where is Chase Headley? I keep hearing about Sandoval, but it seems absolutely foolish to make an offer to Sandoval before you talk to Headley or even HanRam….

Eno Sarris: I think the market usually sets with the top guy signing and then the next guy compares himself to the top guy and goes to the teams that lost out on top guy.

Comment From Guest
ran projections on my current roster, and based on Steamer I’d be ahead of the 1st place counting stats considerably. Do I have a good team, or should I temper my expectations once ZIPS comes out?

Eno Sarris: gotta always work to get better, and check zips.

Comment From john
question – one might argue that jp ricciardi was an awful gm and handed out a lot of bad contracts (wells, rios), like RAJ… But now ricciardi is in a saber front office and hes part of a brain trust. If RAJ got fired for being awful (bc he should, like Ricciardi), but then went to oakland, would we all just forget how bad he was?

Eno Sarris: Omar’s in San Diego doing Latin American work, which is perfect. Sometimes a guy is better in a role.

Comment From Steve O.
Chances the Royals stink next year?

Eno Sarris: They made it based on the two main team aspects least-correlated to team success, so I think they’ll be about a .500 team next year.

Comment From GS1
Where are you getting the data for when you say “X pitch is above average for swings, miss, contact etc…”? Brooks? How do you find average there?

Eno Sarris: we have it on our pitchf/x tabs for every pitcher and here are the averages http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From Dr. Met
Everytime I see a picture of Jeff Wilpon lurking behind Sandy in a press conference, I feel so depressed for my fandom. Just me?

Eno Sarris: I hate the Wilpons, I’ll admit it out loud. Meddling owners who made their money to buy the team in a ponzi scheme.

Comment From Guest
Who’s your guess for A’s SS next season?

Eno Sarris: Stephen Drew into Daniel Robertson?

Comment From Guest
So Brett Lawrie is going to have a post post post hype sleeper breakout next year, right?

Eno Sarris: I still believe. He’s going to kill me.

Comment From klof
Y U NO INCLUDE DC ON LEADERBOARDS?!

Eno Sarris: It’s there now http://www.beergraphs.com/l…

Comment From Guest
Dayn Perry says you stink is it true and what is your stench?

Eno Sarris: My side of the story: I stayed at his house during a week-long bender that started at the all star game in Minny and ended at Pitchfork Fest in Chicago.

Comment From New Prospect vs Old(er) Prospect
Keep a guy who might not be in MLB early next year (Lindor) over Heyward as a 3rd outfielder? Keep 12, 12 team league.

Eno Sarris: Not sure Lindor will be a great fantasy play. I see defense as his best tool.

Comment From john
mejia peripherals werent even good, he contributes more to the mets by playing on a different team

Eno Sarris: By whiffs, grounders and velocity, he has had an elite sinker and slider, an above-average change, curve, and cutter. Last year, his sinker had a top-ten whiff rate, his slider was more than a standard deviation better than league average, and his change and curve improved. He’s got a great arsenal, and I think he can improve command. Plus, stomp.

Comment From Eno!
Trying to win this year and next in a 12 team 5×5 roto… do you have an hesitation signing Jose Fernandez to a 2 year $14 deal? Any way you’d be inclined to stretch that to 3/$19?

Eno Sarris: I like it. I think three years better. There’s a 400-inning TJ honeymoon even if you have two of them, and you get a better AAV, more healthy years past this one.

Comment From Guest
I saw rtj last weekend in portland and tried Pliny the elder, that tequila ipa, and blind pig I feEl pretty accomplished and portland strip clubs rule

Eno Sarris: congratulations!

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Wacha heading into 2015? The injury slowed down the hype train from 2013.

Eno Sarris: Lemme check… still love him.

Comment From klof
TJ House worth keeping at $4 or am I just getting sucked into your positive energy vibe about Cleveland pitchers all being Kluberized?

Eno Sarris: He’s a bad velocity lefty but he has two good offspeed pitches and great command. I’d keep.

Comment From Guest
You really buying Hanram to the M’s, homeboy from mlbtr is pretty confident I’m not so sure?

Eno Sarris: Weird because I’d rather not play him at short an then they’ll have to trade their two shortstops?

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Yankees sign 10 of the top 30 Latin amateur players this year. How would you fix this garbage.

Eno Sarris: Not an international draft.

Comment From Rick
Eno, Assuming C.Martinez does start for STL, would you rather keep him or Gausman in a Keeper League?

Eno Sarris: Martinez. Easier league, nastier stuff.

Comment From Drew
Do you think Wright can bounceback to a 5-6 WAR player?

Eno Sarris: He’ll have more off years, but yes I think he has a couple more excellent years left.

Comment From Tyrone
You think Jon Singleton can figure it out next year? Your thoughts on him?

Eno Sarris: He tried to cut down his swing to make more contact and his strikeouts went up. I only want him for super cheap in the deepest of leagues.

Comment From Rated Rookie
More depressing than a mendacious owner lurking behind a GM is a faceless corporation lurking invisibly behind a GM. Liberty Media is a terrible “owner” for the Braves.

Comment From klof
how is this a thing? http://www.beergraphs.com/l… it’s safe to say i haven’t had the white house homebrew, but how is there even enough data for this to rank #8 in DC???

Eno Sarris: If they all into social media (they probably are) and checked into it proudly (they probably did), then it got into untappd and into our leaderboard.

Comment From Matt
Has you gained a new perception or opinions by being the clubhouse and talking to players? I mean a lot of time they say things like the numbers don’t support, but it is hard to believe there isn’t some truth in what they say.

Eno Sarris: Yes, more appreciation for the role of mechanics in analysis. We regress everyone to league and personal means, but breakouts happen because people change.

Comment From Jefferson
Giddy over Soler – what do you think he’s capable of? Have option of keeping 2 of him, Carlos Rodon, Mookie Betts, Archie Bradley and Byron Buxton as my keepers for 2015. I would like 2015 impact more than future potential of course. And Soler to me is (as a cubs fan) who i’m most excited about. Thoughts?

Eno Sarris: Soler is on my team, and I don’t love pitchers anyway so I take Betts. Buxton so far is broken, Bradley can’t find the plate, and Rodon… well that one’s not super easy, but I take the hitters.

Comment From Bill (Antioch, CA)
What are your thoughts on Hunter Strickland? Is he a AAAA guy or is he someone we will see in the majors going forward?

Eno Sarris: He’s got to figure out how to get life on the fastball, or maybe throw a two-seamer, or something. But the slider is fine, the fastball is straight but super fast, and he’ll get another shot. I think the homers were a bit of bad luck. One was on the outside corner and pulled out. I think he could go inside some. He lives on the outside corner and has good command, but rarely goes inside, so people hang over plate.

Comment From Tyrone
You think Carlos Martinez has a good shot in the rotation? I got him in a firesale

Eno Sarris: Yeah. I mean, the change goes 90 and I’m not totally sold on it, so it might be risky, but I’ll take that velocity. At least he throws his change more than Eovaldi.

Comment From Dylan
You know the FA class is weak when multiple teams are “aggressively pursuing” Tori Hunter.

Eno Sarris: He’s aged so well! He’s also well-aged.

Comment From Avid Mets Fan
d’Arnaud or Plawecki for the future?

Eno Sarris: TdA for me. Great framer, bat’s coming.

Comment From Frank the Tank
Recent research has shown that empirical evidence for globalization of corporate innovation is very limited and as a corollary the market for technologies is shrinking. As a world leader, it’s important for America to provide systematic research grants for our scientists. I believe strongly there will always be a need for us to have a well-articulated innovation policy with emphasis on human resource development, thank you.

Eno Sarris: I agree!

Comment From Avid Mets Fan
Can Niese or Gee get any return

Eno Sarris: More hopeful someone likes Niese and his contract.

Comment From Guest
Great work on the Giants this year. Thoughts on which FA SP they should target? I’d love someone on the cheaper side like Hammel or McCarthy or maybe Sabean will right the wrong and bring Liriano back…

Eno Sarris: That would be fun. Liriano! I think it’ll be a one or two year deal for a vet, Hudson style. Interested to see what Peavy gets.

Comment From Avid Mets Fan
Who’s the ace in our rotation? Harvey/deGrom/Wheeler/Syndergaard?

Eno Sarris: Still Harvey.

Comment From Rick
Retiring soon. What’s the Perfect Retirement IPA? My first plan of action in retirement is to find a designated driver to take me to all the breweries out here in San Diego.

Eno Sarris: Nelson IPA!

Eno Sarris: THE BABY NEEDS ME

Eno Sarris: I love you guys! Probably won’t talk to you next week, but see you soon.

Comment From Rick
Have a Nice Thanksgiving

Eno Sarris: You too!