Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 1/22/15

Eno Sarris: be here shortly.

Eno Sarris: my car is cold, and for some reason that puts my shuffle on the fritz, and this is the first song in my ipod so I’ve been listening to a lot of this recently

{“author”:”RHINO”}:

Comment From Fish
Haven’t been to one of these in a while. Is it still weird?

Eno Sarris: Probably.

Comment From Tony G.
I realize that this is a broad question, but I hope you’ll answer it anyway. I’m in an AL-only league and currently focusing on the type(s) of strategy I will use going into this season. Care to share some thoughts/pointers based on your own approach? Thanks!

Eno Sarris: One thing that’s different about onlies is that the replacement level is is really bad. So floor becomes a little bit more important, relatively, than ceiling. Sure, take a shot at a couple guys so you can win, maybe, but don’t take a ton of shots. And pitchers still easier to find on wire than hitters.

Comment From Jays Fan II
Think Shields ends up with the Jays? If not, where does he go?

Eno Sarris: Think the Tigers have to be a possibility nobody is talking about, too.

Comment From Bobbly Blownilla
How similar will Fister and Henderson Alvarez be in a QS league this year?

Eno Sarris: By steamer, Hendo is replacement level and Fister is a $6 pitcher. I don’t think QS changes the needle much, and even if I think the gap is smaller, it’s still sizable.

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
In terms of an AL-only league, is Derek Holland a solid keeper at $7?

Eno Sarris: yeah. I don’t believe he’s as good as he’s been, but that was a knee injury, so I think he’s young, relatively safe, and has a bit of excitement about him. Even if he gives up more dingers and is more of a 3.75 guy this year, he’ll be worth $7 in ALO.

Comment From Eric
Keep one or neither in ottoneu 5×5? $43 Strasburg, $43 Cargo

Eno Sarris: Stras. Cargo’s injuries are somewhat mitigated by the deep lineup, but that’s a bit rich. I do think there’s a big chance both go for that much in the auction though.

Comment From Guile
Thoughts on Brandon Moss in 2015? Would he be someone you prefer to target or shy away from?

Eno Sarris: I like him. Park should actually help him. I like leg injuries more than arm injuries for hitters. Now he could/should be fixed.

Comment From Jake
Are you higher on Soler or JD Martinez in a roto format this year?

Eno Sarris: Soler. I like his minor league contact rates.

Comment From Jake
What is your favorite non-California Brewery, Sour?

Eno Sarris: Cantillon St Lamvinus maybe? I like Boulevard Love Child series. All things Drei Fonteinen.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Eno…this has been a rough week, I’m extremely pleased to be spending my Thursday morning here. Thanks for the chat man.

Eno Sarris: And we’re almost at the weekend. Sick this week and editing FG+, so yeah I’m with you.

Comment From Mark
What are your thoughts on Tony Cingrani moving forward? Is the breakout imminent?

Eno Sarris: If you’ve only got one pitch, it’s good if it’s your fastball. I’ll still be watching for a third pitch, be it curve or change, this spring.

Comment From Strasburg (DC)
Who will take on me? Who will take me on?? Would a dare package to Rizzo consisting of Baez and McKinney be enough to get done? Wondering when I’ll be gone???

Eno Sarris: Not happening, in my mind. Zimm is the guy that goes if someone goes. Roark as depth is okay, too.

Comment From rabbit ears the third
you buying stock in Gausman this year? I have a few shares in dynasty, and I’m a little worried he’ll never get the strikeouts to be an elite fantasy SP.

Eno Sarris: I’d hold, but buying…. I’ve never seen a pitcher make it with a fastball/straight change/splitter combo. Not saying it can’t be done, but…

Comment From Curtis
Given the off season and seeming parity, who would you pick to be the 5 worst teams, by record, at the end of 2015? harder to pick this year than most other years?

Eno Sarris: Braves, Phillies saeem reasonably easy to throw in the bottom. DBacks too. Beyond that… dunno.

Comment From Ozzie G.
Early on, I’m feeling Adam Laroche big time as a sleeper for my AL-only auction. He seems like a solid bet for 25 HR and 80 RBI (or better), and should come far cheaper than some of the top 1B options. Am I being too optimistic?

Eno Sarris: Don’t forget that DHing is a skill, and one we’re not sure he owns. We could see a 10% drop in his numbers across the board, plus aging.

Comment From jocephus
you’ve been listening to a-ha?

Eno Sarris: Well, among other things, but I actually don’t rush to fix the ipod until after a-ha, which is some Indian dub stuff that isn’t always what I want. A. R. Rahman or something.

Comment From Thorn
Which FA pitcher do the Cubs sign next offseason- Price, Zimmerman or Cueto, Greinke, Latos, Leake, Shark?

Eno Sarris: Shoot for Price, sneak on Cueto?

Comment From Snarfle
I’m I the only one who went into this offseason thinking that Rasmus would get a lot more? I had his contract a little under Melky’s. Not that it would be a good deal, but he’s got power and some upside, and you figure someone will make that bet.

Eno Sarris: no, the crowd gave him 3/30!

Comment From Marty McFly
What would you pay for Collin McHugh in a mixed league, as well as AL-only? Thanks!

Eno Sarris: Steamer doesn’t like him as much as I do, and gives him $5 in mixed. I’d change his numbers, but would still want to pay the steamer price, even if my values will probably have him 2-4 bucks better.

Comment From Andy5
Is there any evidence that learning/playing a new position can have a significant impact on a player’s offensive performance? I’m thinking about Carlos Santana. He was brutal while trying to play 3B and looked like himself once they put him at 1B and left him there. Just a coincidence?

Eno Sarris: Well, we know there’s a DH penalty, so we know that you hit a little differently at one position at least. Moss told me he liked hitting while playing first a lot better, and I can’t believe other hitters don’t have personal preferences. But a year later, will Santana still stress about third base?

Comment From Snarfle
In future communist Russia, car drives you. But first, future capitalist US.

Comment From jocephus
a-ha and e-no….now i get it

Comment From adam
prince fielder will hit 24 home runs

Eno Sarris: Mid-season form.

Comment From Pretty Tony
Is Huston Street the Angels closer next year?

Eno Sarris: For 50 innings. He’ll go on DL this year. When he does, if it’s for the short-term… I guess Smith steps in. If it’s longer term, there’s outside chance they look at Cam Bedrosian.

Comment From adam
In terms of offense: Melky or Zobrist?

Eno Sarris: Melky. If position doesn’t matter, I’ll take his batting average, call power even, and I doubt Zobrist steals enough bases to be better.

Comment From CubsFan
Why aren’t the Dodgers exploring trades for Alex Guerrero with so many teams obviously needing infielders?

Eno Sarris: I doubt other teams covet a guy that couldn’t get a shot when the Dodgers needed a second baseman, pre-Dee. his numbers in Triple-A are age and park inflated. And now they playing him in LF.

Comment From 20longyears
Pirates pitching vs. Cardinals pitching. Your thoughts?

Eno Sarris: I wouldn’t sleep on Taillon, I love Cole more than I should, Kingham is pretty good. Carlos Martinez might have platoon problems… I’ll take Pirates, is that crazy?

Comment From adam
good pre-game bars in chicago’s north end?

Eno Sarris: Best North Side bars are l&l tavern and gingerman for a dive, goose island brew pub or sheffields for best beer.

Comment From mymaus
Does steamer project quality starts? If so, where do I find that? Or can I generate a projection of that based on steamer projections using steamer projected IP & GS. I know that would be far from exact, but if every SP is subject to the same calculation, I think it would get me close from a relative point of view.

Eno Sarris: No but FG+ will project QS for you…

Comment From Astros the Pimp
Over New Year’s I stayed in a hotel in Salt Lake City with 5 breweries within 1.5 miles. It was very very awesome. EPIC is the best around. Great scene and you need to check it out. Plus High West Whiskey is up in Park City.

Eno Sarris: For a state with silly beer laws, they make good beer

Comment From Jimmer
Greg Amsinger from MLB Network went on another anti-metrics rant last night talking about how metrics attempts to ruin people’s perceptions of fan favorite players trying to say they were just okay players as opposed to great ones. He points to three players to make his point . One was Ozzie Smith. I find this hilarious because it’s traditional stats that diminishes Ozzie both in hitting and errors/fielding % while advanced stats, like UZR and WAR tells us he’s the 6th best shortstop all time (5th if you discount ARod). Does Mr Amsinger spend too much time with Harold Reynolds? 🙂

Eno Sarris: Numbers are not a monolith that need to be railed again. The stupidest thing is that you can slice the numbers in stupid ways to be stupid — think of people that rail against sabermetrics because they supposedly tell you what a guy does in high socks on Saturdays. But the best thing about numbers is that they can lead you onto the deepest, most thoughtful, windy pathways that usually make you appreciate how amazing baseball is. Think of a Jeff Sullivan piece.

Comment From mtsw
Given what we know about the times-through-the-order penalty, could teams with bad plate discipline (the 2014 Orioles, for example) have a secret advantage since opposing starters will last for more PAs on average?

Eno Sarris: Above my paygrade to figure out, but I’ll ask around.

Comment From Noreaster
There seems to be a lot of variance on projections for Gattis, now that he a) won’t catch much and b) will be in the Juicebox. I think he will be a Top 5 catcher this year … what’s your take?

Eno Sarris: On steamer alone, he’s third-best by a hair. I could give him second-best with some love, but not number one.

Comment From adam
i think there should be an otto league where regular joes can compete against fangraph pros

Eno Sarris: Cameron has a league like that! For charity.

Comment From Brian
What positions could Alcantara end up eligible at this year if he is used as a super sub utility guy? Could we see him get either SS or 3B?

Eno Sarris: Definitely third and second and CF and maybe another OF spot. Probably not short.

Comment From BoB Barker
Yovani Gallardo or Jimmy Nelson – better 2015 fantasy option?

Eno Sarris: Huh. I think I’ll take Gallardo actually. I always hated that he went to the sinker more.

Comment From Snarfle
A dolphin propels itself out of the water, it’s body describing a perfect arc in the open air. For a moment it takes in the Pacific expanse from above, feeling the crisp and chaotic air against the water still clinging to its back. “Oh yeah,” she thinks, “it’s good to be me.”

Comment From Marty
Aint no party like an Eno Sarris Party, cause an Eno Sarris Party don’t stop!

Comment From Maxamuz

I said hotel, motel, holiday inn.

Eno Sarris: Look good guys, looking good.

Comment From BoB Barker
Henderson Alvarez – #12 overall SP ranked in The Sporting News Fantasy Guide for 2015…your thoughts?

Eno Sarris: Mother said to keep your dang mouth shut if you don’t have good things to say.

Comment From Al
Over/under 150 IP for Pineda in 2015? And Tanaka?

Eno Sarris: Under and…. under.

Comment From Brad
I have $3 remaining for keepers (standard 5×5 H2H), and will probably keep Billy Hamilton for $2. Who would you rather spend the last $1 – Y.Ventura, A.Sanchez, Archer, or Paxton? Also, would you rather keep GoGo or Adam Jones?

Eno Sarris: GoGo over Jones. pitchers? I think Aaron Sanchez will close, so I’ll take a starter. Even if it’s Anibal, I’ll pass. I like Paxton, but I like Ventura better. Archer v Ventura is interesting. I’m still worried about Archer’s change, though. He might be slightly higher floor, better injury risk, but Ventura’s ceiling seems higher to me.

Comment From Nate
Is a Mookie Betts a no-brainer auction keeper league keeper @ $10? $280 budget and OBP/SLG and TB count.

Eno Sarris: Yeah I’d keep him. Steamer has 580 PA and $19 value in OF. There’s PA risk, but not that high. Has the perfect statistical background to have a super high floor. Smallest bust rate among prospect population, to me.

Comment From Nate
Who do you like better for 2015 and beyond: Hamels or Lester?

Eno Sarris: Hamels. I might be crazy, but I would make sex with that changeup.

Comment From Kris
Javier Baez has K’d 21 times in 43 PAs in the PR winter league. Where you at with him?

Eno Sarris: Where I’ve always been: out.

Comment From Nate
.275/20/15 a good bet for Frazier?

Eno Sarris: Under on steals.

Comment From Snarfle
For a while I was thinking I would add a stats–something like .8-.9 on R, RBI, W, etc., but now I’m thinking that BA, ERA, SB aren’t much easier to predict. Maybe I could boost Ks and HR–those feel a little more stable, but Ks more than HR. But, generally, how do you feel about broad adjustments for projectability?

Eno Sarris: Ks, HRs, SBs — I bet you could do a nice thing with a projection system that just did those three stats.

Comment From mtsw
Even if Dylan Bundy is ready to pitch in the majors coming out of spring training, do the Orioles keep him out of the rotation due to their glut of starters?

Eno Sarris: no, will be too easy to say he needs to stretch out or get ready or whatever. You keep as many players on your team as you can until someone forces your hand, and if they bring up Bundy, something has to give.

Comment From Maxamuz
I’m going to be drafting Lucas Duda this year and probably will get him for $1.

Eno Sarris: I said that once, and then everyone got mad at me when they paid $10 and he busted.

Comment From Kelvin
Is part of the reason the Braves haven’t traded Kimbrel because they couldn’t get a big name back in return to please the fan base, even though they could probably get several quality guys back?

Eno Sarris: I don’t think they make moves based on that, but if you take the fans out of it, there might be something there. They can’t get what they want back, that’s why.

Eno Sarris: Just came on my shuffle

{“author”:”Dennis Brown – Topic”}:

Comment From Mark
Do you like Straily with the Astros? You’ve mentioned him as a sleeper, so the clearer path to a rotation spot has to help despite the move to the AL, right?

Eno Sarris: Yeah Peacock’s not ready, too. he’s been an average starter, and through all his tinkering with the change, it’s been above-average. Plus slider. There’s only one thing that makes me nervous: his decline in fastball velocity. Getting right with health or mechanics would give him McHugh-like upside.

Comment From Nate
Bold prediction: Stroman finishes as top-10 fantasy pitcher.

Eno Sarris: I’m all over him this year.

Comment From Snarfle
It’s frustrating, especially because we can’t stop talking about it, but it does make sense to see what you have in Flores, what the Rangers and Cubs have with their MI gluts, and how Tulo is looking.

Eno Sarris: I hate Flores as a shortstop and yes I still think this is an okay line of reasoning. Makes him easier to sell, too.

Comment From John
Just back from Jamaica – so given what Kang finally got, how mad are you as a mets fan? and the recent reports that they wont be in on moncada? and to boot, wilpon being named chair of the finance committee? pretty bad couple of weeks for mets fans, no?

Eno Sarris: I HATE ALL OF THIS. especially the Jamaica part.

Comment From jocephus
have you ever done a “best shape of his life” and results analysis. if not and you do, i want credit

Eno Sarris: Craig Calcaterra collects them, but Collette did him one better by collecting ‘new pitch’ guys and tracking them.

Comment From Kelvin
Name an actor you wish would do a baseball movie.

Eno Sarris: Was going to say Matthew McConaughey, but the internets tell me he was an Angel in the outfield, something I didn’t remember. It would probably be really really bad, but I’d laugh out loud to see Christian Bale in a baseball movie.

Comment From Paul M
Which beerweek events in SF are you interested in?

Eno Sarris: Going to the Gala as a Member Of The Press. So that’ll be interesting. The rest? Will see what the wife lets me do.

Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts
Eno, I have some sorachi ace hops to use before they go bad, what style should I brew?!

Eno Sarris: You know I bet it would taste good in a white pale ale.

Comment From IamRangers
do you expect Trout’s steal numbers to increase?

Eno Sarris: no, that generally doesn’t happen.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Sorry play the part of the Braves homer but I think a rotation of Teheran, Wood, Miller, and Minor will keep them away from the bottom. Now, the batters will be plenty bad.

Eno Sarris: I do like Wood and Miller more than their projections. Minor… and yeah those bats. Those bats.

Comment From Spin
Highest ceiling: Appel or Stephenson? Moncada or Seager? Thx!

Eno Sarris: Stephenson but I have to tap out on Moncada. No idea. Love love Seager though.

Comment From Walt
what advice would you give to someone applying for an analyst position in a front office? (i’m currently an analyst at a fortune 500 company)

Eno Sarris: You’re better off than 75% of the applicants probably. I would play to your strengths as a numbers guy. I might write up some research, even if you don’t publish it, as part of the application. Winter meetings kind of suck, but come and get in front of as many teams as you can, with research in hand, and your analyst creds…

Comment From JD
When’s FG+ 2015 come out?

Eno Sarris: Early February!

Comment From Nelson
If you stopped buying beer today, how long could your fridge and cellar sustain you? Do you have a 2 month emergency supply as all economists advise?

Eno Sarris: nope. Maybe two weeks.

Comment From Guest
Santana or Fielder next yr?

Eno Sarris: Santana!

Eno Sarris: hmm. Steamer says I was off by $10 there. Maybe no.

Comment From neal
if you could magically obtain pitchf/x data for any one pitcher from history, who would you choose?

Eno Sarris: Pedro 99-01.

Comment From Guest
Vogelsong back to the bay?

Eno Sarris: Sure but doesn’t move my needle much. Makes Lincecum and Petit both swing men, which is weird.

Comment From George
Trying to start a new ottneu league this year. SABR points. Looking at the numbers, it seems like the format lends itself to very low $$ for RPs. Does it make sense to pay more than $3-$4 for any reliever?

Eno Sarris: I usually don’t. Well, I’m competitive, and when you get to the top three-four teams, that point for saves vs holds (there is a one point difference in ottoneu SABR points) can make a difference. So I’m keeping Cody Allen at eight bucks.

Comment From merv throneberry
Greetings Eno…is Bogaerts already who he is or is there more? And can Chris Carter pull off another 3 months of .255 to go with that FB rate?

Eno Sarris: Bogaerts is young, so there’s definitely more there. I could see a .280/20+/5 peak.

Comment From John
the mets havent done enough, imo, and they clearly want to move a sp… they also have murphy who they have no interest in extending and isnt good enough for a QO… jays need pitcjer nd 2b… anything a package of gee or niese and murphy can net?

Eno Sarris: Unfortunately they won’t give up an outfielder. So if that happened, it would be for a second-wave arm, an arm that’s further away than what they have. Nothing that could help the Mets this year, I don’t think.

Comment From Joe
Keep 1: Abreu in Rd 4, Alex Wood in 14, or Benoit in Rd 23. In-division save chasing is insane

Eno Sarris: i’ll just take Abreu because BAT.

Comment From Stephen
Eno, what is your feelings on coffee? Are you as much of a connoisseur of coffee as you are with beer? Or are you not picky because you are a tired dad?

Eno Sarris: I don’t do caffeine, he said snootily.

Comment From My Ears are Lonely
Any idea when we can expect the next Sleeper and the Bust?

Eno Sarris: Today.

{“author”:”Ter Gui”}:

Comment From Brad
what did you think of zips poor projection of carrassco as a starter?

Eno Sarris: I think there’s some risk there. He got a velocity boost last year with move to pen. What if he loses two MPH and all of a sudden those command problems are front and center again? Last year, everyone wanted Salazar and I got Carrasco. This year, based on prices, I’m likely to reverse that.

Comment From ar
hey eno.. i can keep melancon in the 26th round in a 12 person league. i feel like that can’t possibly be right, but it also seems like great value. fwiw, my other keepers will be dickerson in the 24th rd, Harvey in the 22nd, and arenado in the 15th. The other option would be arcia in the 19th or Torii Hunter in the 14th… thoughts?

Eno Sarris: You got the right keepers and well done.

Eno Sarris: Arcia over the closer is possible-, but I don’t think you NEED to do it.

Comment From Mike C
With Showalter saying De Aza will lead off, I have him projecting a roto value around Crisp, Eaton, and Pollock – is that too high or just right?

Eno Sarris: Did you cap his PA around 500-550? He’ll sit against a lot of lefties.

Comment From Rex Banner
ENNNOOOO! The Rockies’ SBNation blog was throwing around Tulo trade speculation this morning, and the most exciting was Tulo for Strasburg and Desmond. What do you think? It seems very interesting, but I shudder to think what the altitude will do to Strasburg’s beautiful breakers

Eno Sarris: Desmond is a one-year asset, I can’t believe they’d go that direction. I think they’d want to restock their entire farm system and get a credible SS for now.

Comment From Dan Duquette
With all the talk about fair compensation for me, if you had to guesstimate WAR for a GM, how many wins do you think a good GM is worth? I realize my effect is not just realized in the current year, so maybe how many wins am I worth over say the next four years?

Eno Sarris: I’d guess it was gradual. Like in year one, maybe just a win or something. But by year four, maybe as many as five or more?

Eno Sarris: Because the FA market isn’t great, and a lot of how the GM can impact the team is longer-term moves, development decisions.

Comment From Sirras One
What is the value proposition of FG+ to non-fantasy people?

Eno Sarris: There are 11 long pieces and a non-fantasy person would find seven or eight of them interesting for baseball reasons. Like a study on how the RMSE of release points correlates to command. Or how a new player can impact an entire team’s outcomes. Or a Farnsworth study of Kang’s swing.

Eno Sarris: And then I’d say about 50% of the player caps would be interesting to a non-fantasy owner, if because they are funny or highlight an interesting aspect of that player’s production.

Eno Sarris: And then you get access to all the ESPN insider pieces all year.

Eno Sarris: And it’s one of the few ways to give back to the website that gives you all sorts of great content for free.

Comment From Maxamuz

Comment From Marty
What do you think of Eovaldi going into the year? I dont love the lefty HRs, and why won’t the velo translate into Ks?

Eno Sarris: Still missing the third pitch. I think he should ditch the change and embrace the curve. That could happen in New York. This is his last chance, for me.

Comment From cwsoxfan
Why won’t my Sox win the Central? Where’s the glaring weakness, in comparison to the other division teams? Thanks

Eno Sarris: Second base, starting pitching. They have possible answers for one, but the other seems very shaky.

Comment From mymaus
Is that FG+ QS projection based on steamer projections and can it be exported smoothly with steamer’s projections?

Eno Sarris: Based on steamer. I’ll try to make sure it’s easy to export.

Comment From Bart S.
I was offered a challenge trade, my Adrian Beltre for their Carlos Santana (1B/3B eligibility). Both can be kept. What would you do?

Eno Sarris: I have Beltre way ahead this year in 5×5. There’s some risk for later, but take Beltre for now.

Comment From The Earl of Baltimore
With the caveat that it is 1/22/15, which of the Rays, Indians and A’s do you think have the best chance to win their respective division?

Eno Sarris: Indians or A’s. I’ll take Indians. Like what they are building. Most of their question marks have possible answers in the minor leagues, and their starting pitching depth is excellent.

Comment From pair-a-dice
Drop TJ House in Dynasty?

Eno Sarris: He’s competing with Salazar for a spot, so he might be droppable, but in the world where he pitches 200 MLB innings this year, I want him.

Comment From JJP
Heading to Miami this weekend. Any breweries I should check out while I wait for my late flight home?

Eno Sarris: If you can make it up to Boca Raton, then do Funky Buddha. Otherwise, Miami seems a bit barren http://www.beergraphs.com/l…

Comment From Eric
What do you think Castellanos’s ceiling is?

Eno Sarris: .275/20?

Comment From RotoCat
Hi Eno! If I plot x and y at same time points via scattershot does the R2 give me correlation grade?

Eno Sarris: R2 is about predicting variance. The square root of that is R is correlation.

Comment From RotoLando
Mellow Greetings, Citizen. Here’s my boggle: I have Schoop and Semien in my MI slot in a points league. Can only keep one.

Eno Sarris: Semien I guess

Eno Sarris: Semien with contact is more well-rounded than Schooop with more contact.

Comment From Mark
What the hell is Chicago’s “North End”?

Eno Sarris: he corrected a spot later but I didn’t want to post both

Comment From Shawn
I’ve never had the Bourbon County Stouts (not available that I know of in CT), but the more availble Goose Island beers are just pretty meh to me

Eno Sarris: Yeah It’s all about BCBS and their sours (Halia, Juliette). And if you can get to their brewpub in Chicago, that’s really good.

Eno Sarris: (Although I do like Matilda, their brett beer that they claim is the first American brett beer)

Comment From RotoLando
My clamato-chugging competition is going to be called The Great Annual Clam Slam.

Comment From Maxamuz

I'm keeping Mookie for $8 ($200 budget) so I can trade him to the Red Sox fans who overpay for players.

Comment From hscer
yo

Comment From hscer
that was the entirety of my contributions today

Eno Sarris: Win some lose some lude.

Comment From Ryguy
So who is the player(s) that you have unconditional Lucas Duda-like love for this year?

Eno Sarris: Betts I guess. it was Rendon last year. Trying not to make it Grandal this year.

Comment From Skeeter Valentine
Just moved to Columbia SC. Any good beer/brewery recommendations that I can get in the SC area? Tried Westbrook IPA and loved it

Eno Sarris: Westbrook dominates SC http://www.beergraphs.com/l… but RJ Rockers is good too. And if you can get some NoDa or Wicked Weed or Foothills from NC http://www.beergraphs.com/l… than you’re good. It’s actually a great place to be for beer right now.

Comment From Rated Rookie

Think Javier Baez starts the year in Iowa?

Eno Sarris: High probability to me right now. Spring training will be big for him.

Comment From Nate
What do you see as Christian Yelich’s fantasy upside?

Eno Sarris: Long term? .280/20+/20. This year? can’t push that power needle past 15 as hard as I try.

Comment From Capn Cook
Hanley. Where does he go in redrafts?

Eno Sarris: Early second? Have him worth around the same as Donaldson by steamer alone.

Comment From Phil I. Stine
“Ks, HRs, SBs — I bet you could do a nice thing with a projection system that just did those three stats.” – Care to elaborate?

Eno Sarris: I think R/RBI are super hard to predict. and BA has all that BABIP noise.

Comment From Shawn
Talk about that sandwich from yesterday- pastrami & bacon!

Eno Sarris: yeah well it was a bit of overkill since pastrami is so close to bacon, but since the bacon was in the brussel sprouts, which was in the cream cheese, it all worked out. I took a bite without the cream cheese and it was wrong. Probably too many words on this sandwich now.

Comment From RotoCat
Do you think Oaktown goes platoon at closer?

Eno Sarris: no. I think it’s Doolittle. They signed him to that deal and he’s solid.

Comment From Spin
Your projection for Jung-Ho Kang?

Eno Sarris: I love him more than I should probably. I’ll say this: I don’t know if he can play shortstop. But Harrison has some downside, Walker’s been hurt, and so there’s opportunity. IF he got 600 PA, I’d feel okay giving Kang .260/18+ type numbers, but that’s really reining in my optimism about his power. You gotta read this Farnsworth piece.

Comment From RotoCat
stroman or wheeler and why?

Eno Sarris: Stroman. Wheeler’s change is no good, and while Stroman’s is not a lot better, he doesn’t need to make many changes because his command is better. For now, Stroman’s velocity is similar, and he added that sinker. I like wheeler, I LOVE Stroman.

Comment From RotoCat
you ever gonna do a fangraphs pod with cistulli?

Eno Sarris: He calls me up when I do something noteworthy, but with my own pod, which I’d like to get back to twice a week again soon, it’s tough to do regularly.

Comment From Guest
Now name a baseball player you wish would do a non-baseball movie.

Eno Sarris: Hunter Pence would make a hell of a Bad Guy.

Comment From Guest
have you ever been to a cakepoppery

Eno Sarris: ?

Comment From Joe
Thoughts on Nelson? You think he needs a better change or curve right? Without it, what are we looking at?

Eno Sarris: Worried he’s a reliever. If he had great command, he might be able to do something like Masterson, but even Masterson in his bad command years is not great.

Comment From max fisher players
ENO!!! Am I crazy to punt average in H2H league, feel like it has more variation compared to other stats

Eno Sarris: It’s the easiest one to punt in H2H, opens up a ton of players.

Comment From Steve
What do you think of Matt Shoemaker this year?

Eno Sarris: Decent midrotation guy.

Comment From Rated Rookie

After landing Harper and Mookie in trades recently.

Comment From John
Jamaica – best weather we’ve had in my 4 years visiting… Did 22 dives, took the students to dunn’s river falls and ocho rios… only downside is the indian restaurant we always eat at in ocho (passage to inda) was closed. so we ate lunch at mongoose instead

Eno Sarris: Awesome! 22 dives! amazing.

Comment From Joe
Micah Johnson stand a shot at opening as starter? I am in a draft league and need a few more bags and backup 2B. Round 26 now.

Eno Sarris: yeah via his best beat (Dan Hayes), he’s in the front spot for that job. Stayed till last day of spring last year.

Comment From Brandon
Has there ever been a beer on which you’ve particularly disagreed with as to its listed BAR or Style+?

Eno Sarris: Heady Topper is not my number one, but it’s still good. I don’t need to agree with each one, that’s not the point.

Comment From Rated Rookie

Third base coach.

Comment From Guest
a toy store, but with delicate china on the bottom shelves and a very strict “you break it, you bought it” policy

Comment From jocephus
sleeper and the bust to the tune of “benny and the jets”

Eno Sarris: hey lets save the peak stuff for later in the season please

Comment From Nolan
Bogaerts or Machado? Who has the better career?

Eno Sarris: I like Bogaerts better. At short, no injury concerns…

Comment From adam
mejia this season will do or be what?

Eno Sarris: Take over as closer at some point.

Comment From Kris
Speaking of the Braves caring about the ‘fans thoughts’ I believe the plan is a Zoilo Almonte/Jonny Gomes platoon in LF. So, yeah, I don’t think the fan’s interests are the main hindrance to a Kimbrel trade

Comment From MASN Profiteer
Eno! I’m an O’s fan, but I’m also a believer. I can keep Gausman over Smyly, right? It’s a 12 team 12 keeper keep forever (no penalties). That’s not super crazy is it?

Eno Sarris: Man I’m all over Smyly this year. $5 difference by steamer and I’d up his IP projection and make Smyly about a $10 pitcher to Gausman’s $1.

Comment From Guest
when should i have my fantasy baseball drafthanks

Eno Sarris: I like everyone to be on the same page by information so either before spring training begins or as late in march as possible.

Comment From jocephus
is total recall arnolds best movie?

Eno Sarris: Is it the best movie?

Comment From Guest
Who plays 2nd more Lawrie or Semien?

Eno Sarris: Beane was sure to point out to me that Semien was at shorstop, that they saw Lawrie as a 2b/3b, and Forst told me he thought Ravelo could play third. I’ll say Lawrie.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
I think that the impact of GMs is largely underrated. Having watched Huntington come in and overhaul every aspect of the approach regarding player evaluation and acquisition, it has to be more like 15 or 20 wins. over time. Look at how fast the Cubs went from hopeless to promising with a good front office.

Eno Sarris: Yeah I think you have to give GMs more than three years. Five years even. And by the seventh year… especially if you add up the years, you can easily get to 20 wins. If you mean 20 wins in one year… I’d have to think on that harder. Seems like a ton.

Comment From Guest
Frank Sinatra for Elvis Presley who says no first

{“author”:”John Blaney”}:

Comment From Joe
Brett Anderson’s innings?

Eno Sarris: 120

Comment From klof
re: chicago beer bars: hopleaf!

Comment From Marty
Do you have shares of Yoan Moncado?

Eno Sarris: nope, but really only one league where I could own him by now

Comment From Tom
Will FG+ have the position rankings and tiers? Or do we have to wait for that?

Eno Sarris: I”M ONLY ONE MAN. (rankings will be free, we’ve got to get on those, too)

Comment From klof
which strategy is going to turn out better: the nats’ whole-rotation-of-aces or the red sox and O’s strategy of all-threes?

Eno Sarris: Nats rotation is better suited for postseason.

Comment From metalica
do youmiss snow

Eno Sarris: no

Comment From kevinthecomic
Take On Me by Aha — that song WAS my 1985

Eno Sarris: I actually remember watching that video

Comment From Guest
Have you ever been to one of those all-you-can-drink 2oz pour-only beer fests? What’s a good plan of attack, both logistically and in terms of taste? Ideally I’d work my way through all of the amazing beers, starting with lighter and moving darker from there, but the barrel aged stouts/barleywines are likely to go quick. If I flip the script, though, and start with the 10-15% ABV BA stouts, I’m gonna be toast before things even get underway.

Eno Sarris: actually stouts are less hoppy, so you could do stouts first. use sours to cleanse palate. hit your number one brewery no matter what they make first because that line will just get longer. Leave the sleepers for the wandering around moments.

Comment From Shawn
How much time or how many starts do you give a pitcher who struggles, but you expected to make a jump at the beginning of the year?

Eno Sarris: Three starts gives you velocity in stable form. I like to get 100 each for my pitch type analysis, which takes more than five starts, but I might fake it after five.

Comment From George
here’s a question i’ve been wanting to ask for a long time … is there anyway to see league-wide data for a given pitch. for example, i’ve heard you say, “Pitcher X gets an above-average amount of swings-and-misses on his changeup.” Does FG have this data?

Eno Sarris: http://www.fangraphs.com/fa…

Comment From Curtis
Throwing a party for 20 or so 30-55 year olds….how many different beers/beer types would be safe to cover the crowd – assuming a variety of beer preferences….

Eno Sarris: Three should suffice. IPA, Pilsner, Brown/Dark Lager. If you’re going to have some crazy beer geeks, then the stouts become more interesting. I like saisons and sours, but they can be expensive and you don’t need them for a good party.

Eno Sarris: You can fake it with just an IPA and a Pils. If I went to a party with people I liked and they had Lagunitas IPA and Victory Prima Pils, I wouldn’t think twice about the beer and go find a conversation. In a good way.

Comment From klof
we’re making an IPA this weekend with nelson sauvin and galaxy dry-hop. That stuff is pricey and difficult to track down. Will report back on how it turns out.

Eno Sarris: I want

Comment From Guest
I just said screw it and cut a $12 Des Jennings in 4×4, good call?

Eno Sarris: yeah he’s not going to get much better and you don’t get his steals

Comment From Guest
what beer is in the glass

Eno Sarris: I think it’s actually a Faction IPA, from the Rose and Crown in Palo Alto

Comment From Honcho

Your fearless leader…

Eno Sarris: That’s great.

Comment From Kris
Columbia guy – drive to Charlotte and the new Conqeust brewery in Cola is actually pretty good.

Comment From Maxamuz

Eno Sarris: God I love that moment in cinema.

Comment From RotoLando
You’re German. What’s with that poop shelf on their toilets?

Eno Sarris: Gotta inspect it before it you flush it?

Comment From klof
is anyone else having issues with the chat scrolling wildly on its own? also why is it still scrolling up? i thought this was going to end.

Eno Sarris: Hold on, let’s figure this out. I’m going to change something. REFRESH everyone

Eno Sarris: then tell me what’s up

Comment From Guest
what’s the most badass thing that has resulted for you from being a baseball writer?

Eno Sarris: Standing on the field watching batting practice.

Comment From Peensy
Hey, projections for Zobrist in the Coliseum?

Eno Sarris: About the same as before in the Trop.

Comment From Guest
cakepoppery = establishment that crafts and sells cakepops. cakepops = cake balls at the end of a lollipop stick

Eno Sarris: …. wow

Comment From Barthomelew
in dynasty should i be trying to move waingwrght or syndergaara3d thx

Eno Sarris: You’d get more for Waino and I think this is the time to move Waino. Right now.

Comment From Joe
Was Jesse Chavez’s 1H repeatable/expandable? In other words, was it a stamina issue or did he get lucky?

Eno Sarris: I do think it was a stamina issue, but going to the cutter as your primary pitch does limit your long-term ability to retain your velocity. In other words, I like him some, but only super cheap.

Comment From HuGLy McDonverbean
WILL JAYSON WERTH HOLD UP IT SEEMS LIKE HIS SKILLSET WILL AGE WELL (NOT THE SBS MAYBE I GUESS)

Eno Sarris: Problem is that he’s a righty that was thought to be a platoon bat for so long that he debuted late. Makes me think he had to be closer to his peak to be relevant, which might be important as he falls from peak. Also, he’s been injury-prone his whole career.

Comment From Ben
What are your vibes on Jorge Soler this season? Think he has a chance to go 25/90/90/5 with a respectable average?

Eno Sarris: I’m in love with him.

Comment From Steve
Who would you rather have at equal cost – Kipnis or Mookie?

Eno Sarris: Steamer says it’s 2x Mookie, and though it might be closer in my mind — projections systems underproject power from players that played through injury — even if I up Kipnis’ power projection to 17 HR, he comes up short. But if I up his r/RBI to 170 combined, he’s about equal! Interesting. Certainly has higher floor due to longer track record and estabilished spot.

Comment From Shawn
How’s the new little one? I have a 7 week old and it’s amazing the changes from week to week

Eno Sarris: Wake me up when he’s walking, talking, and sleeping through the night. (He’s my second so I’m allowed to be jaded? no, it’s great, just super tiring)

Comment From Drew
How much should batting WAR count for factoring a pitcher’s value? Colon was worth -.7 WAR at the plate last year, giving back almost 1/3 of his value

Eno Sarris: Such a tiny sample, though. I guess those things happened, but it’s not how we judge pitchers.

Comment From Guest
Wait is Mejia not already the presumptive closer? Steamer projects him for 28 SV

Eno Sarris: Terry said Parnell is the guy going into the season.

Comment From Mark
Does Severino come up this year?

Eno Sarris: With all those injury prone guys? I think so.

Comment From Marty
Total Recall? T2 was badass…and also a legit good movie.

Eno Sarris: Waited in line around the block on the first day for T2 with my dad. But Recall is funny and badass.

Comment From Jefferson
Seeing a lot of projections very down on Matt Harvey. He was claiming to be ready last season, so workflow will be almost normal (imagine an inning or two less a game). What do you feel for him? I’m of mindset if he comes back ok he’s a top 5 starter.

Eno Sarris: yeah I like him. Had some command blips in minors, so I guess if he’s not all the way back there, that could be bad, but I do like that he’s taking his time. I found that longer recovery times were better for pitchers.

Comment From Liam
Harvey worth drafting as a fantasy #1?

Eno Sarris: Only if you draft two or three other #2s with #2 upside. Only as part of a strategy to pay less for your ace.

{“author”:”Pchelos”}:

Comment From Megan
Think Soler or Betts are reliable as #3/4 OF if the core is Harper and Trout? No one on earth likes young Bryce anymore, but I do?! Let me tell those dudes in my league to suckit.

Eno Sarris: Your set. that’s a great OF. You can always find replacements in the OF and you have TONS of upside plus two of the top five-seven guys at the position.

Comment From Guest
which strategy is going to turn out better: a lineup with 9 very good players or with 9 pretty good players?

Comment From Joe
You think about run support when drafting pitchers or only their stuff?

Eno Sarris: I don’t usually think about wins.

Comment From Guest
Party commenter: If you’re going to go stout definitely go irish dry or foreign extra; more casually drinkable and lower ABV than contemporary american monstrosities. Unless I’m going to like a beer-focused party or bar I just want something easy drinking and tasty enough.

Comment From Guest
ROSE AND CROWN, classic establishment.

Eno Sarris: Love that place.

Comment From Guest
I have never seen a poop shelf in a german toilet. I must have been pooping in the wrong toilets in my travels all this time.

Comment From Guest
BOOO HISSS

Comment From ar
IT’S GOING DOWN WOOOOO!

Eno Sarris: Okay I finally figured it out.

Comment From janJAng
aggressively go after Crush Davis in OBP? thx!

Eno Sarris: Yeah I think so. Attainable power, no real warts in OBP.

Comment From Guest
WILL ALL CAPS BECOME THE NORM IN MY LIFETIME AND LOWERCASE WILL SIGNIFY YELLING

Comment From jocephus
sour soler – brew that beer eno

Comment From Mendoza Line
Do you think the ottoneu format is going to continue to gain in popularity? It seems to fit so much better with baseball analysis, but at the same time most fantasy advice is exclusively roto (even here on FG)

Eno Sarris: We’ve got a couple good Ottoneu guys in Brad and Chad. But yeah it does lineup with front page stuff better. It’s fairly labor intensive, but it’s really fun.

Comment From Terrence
Sonny Gray for Dozier in dynasty 5×5… who wins?

Eno Sarris: Dozier, and I think it’s a decent idea for the Gray owner.

Comment From Guest
Troeg’s NugNec — you dig?

Eno Sarris: yes. Like an IPA/red/amber thing. Reminds me of the Ninkasi imperial red.

Comment From Goat
Steamer has Souza going 18/20 this year… Nice!

Eno Sarris: Took him in the fourth round of the BP prospect draft!

Eno Sarris: I picked tenth in that draft, and here’s my haul: JP Crawford, Carlos Rodon, Maikel Franco, Steven Souza, Aaron Nola, Michael Conforto, Alex Blandino, Francellis Montas, Travis Demerritte, Ketel Marte.

Comment From ar
follow up to the keeper question: given that i’m getting harvey in the 25th round, or whatever, what kind of guys should be my second and third pitchers?

Eno Sarris: I think you’ll want to pick your second pitcher relatively high with a good floor. Lester / Zimmerman / Hamels. Cobb / Shields for third pitcher?

Comment From Guest
I was happy earlier because I heard word that a high-up supervisor liked my work. I then thought to myself is this really what I live for

Comment From ONE I
poop shelf=no splash back

Comment From Maxamuz

Comment From Guest
” James Schmehl ?@jamesschmehl 8m Side note: This is the first time Cespedes has seen snow. He seemed excited, but being the cynical person I am, I assured him it’ll get old.”

Comment From Rated Rookie
Is it worth dropping Taijuan Walker and Carlos Rodon in order to move up in the draft and have a shot at drafting Stroman and Carrasco? Or rank these for 2015 and beyond: Walker, Rodon, Stroman, Carrasco.

Eno Sarris: Huh. I like Walker a lot but 2015 and beyond both have Stroman ahead, for me.

Comment From Joe
Schechter’s book talks about taking one starting pitcher every 5 rounds. I have used this recently and it seems to be viable for balancing your team. You adhere to something similar?

Eno Sarris: I have places where I like to take them, yes. 5-7, take a break, 12-14. So I guess my spacing is longer, and then there’s a spot in the 18-20 where I want a bunch — I don’t want to buy the very last sleeper pitchers. I think I would say ‘take two SPs every eight rounds’ instead. Same thing, but it’s a little different.

Comment From RotoLando
No splash back (from poop, anyways, unless you have “The Blasters”), but you do run the risk of Rectal Tickle if you have an unusually large pile.

Comment From Maxamuz

Comment From RotoLando
I’ve now made more comments about German poop shelves than baseball players.

Comment From Marty
Poop shelf…huh. What about streaks? Are we getting too graphic now?

Eno Sarris: Streaks happen in Germany.

Comment From RotoCat
thx Eno so back to the correlation question -> I’m plotting x and y in excel on scattershot, then I’m adding a linear trendline and looking at the r squared value. To get the correlation I then need to squareroot the resulting r squared?

Eno Sarris: That’s my understanding. But the r2 gives you a better idea if it’s predictive (is it over .5)?

Comment From jocephus
whenever i hear steamer, i think of ricky the dragon steamboat

Comment From Dave
Re: Parnell – Its hard to be the guy if you start the season on the DL

Eno Sarris: Is true. But it does say something about Terry Collins (addled?) mind on the issue.

Comment From Marty

{“author”:”Flying Nun Records”}:

Eno Sarris: Okay! I gotta get back to editing!

Eno Sarris: See you guys next week.

Comment From Marty
thanks eno. later man