Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 5/8/14
11:40 |
: I’ll be here in 20!
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11:40 |
:
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11:41 |
: In the meantime.
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12:00 |
Hi Eno. Been excited for this chat all week, so thanks for doing it. I’m in an AL-only keeper league and have Brad Miller as my SS. Do you think the Mariners ride out this cold streak, or could Miller really find himself in AAA soon? Also, can you name any American League SS-eligible players that might be completely under the radar right now? The best available options on my league’s waiver wire are Eric Sogard, Ryan Flaherty and Danny Santana, so it’s slim pickings out there!!! |
12:01 |
: You’re stuck! And, for what it’s worth, I think they stick with him a while longer. They’ve started worse bats at the position and he’s playing good defense. If you could pick up Eric Sogard for a bench piece to protect yourself, you might get a few good starts out of the A.
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12:01 |
I remember a Cubs guy very arrogantly saying over the off season that Baez would be up in June. |
12:02 |
: Questioned my sanity and intelligence along the way.
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12:02 |
Hey Eno! I traded Nelson Cruz for Kenley Jansen in 10 tm h2h keeper league…I needed a closer, decent move? Thanks! |
12:02 |
: I’d rather have Cruz in a vaccum, but at least you got a top-three closer.
|
12:03 |
Any reason I should have faith in Ubaldo tonight? The O’s gave him 4 years and I’ve given them all my life… |
12:03 |
: man he lost another 1.4 off his fastball and his control didn’t get any better…
|
12:03 |
Is C.J. Cron the Angels’ answer to the black hole that is Raul Ibanez? |
12:04 |
: Well not if you mean defensively. If you mean offensively, maybe he has long-term upside to beat Ibanez, but maybe not even that. No walks or glove means he has to hit his upper-bounds power projections to be valuable.
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12:04 |
![]() There is quite a lot going on here. |
12:04 |
Any chance the Blue Jays move Brett Lawrie to 2B full-time so that Juan Francisco’s bat can stay in the lineup? |
12:04 |
: Sure. Getz and Goins have nothing goins on.
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12:04 |
Thinking about Zunino, is there any history that shows one can become more patient at the plate with time in MLB after being rushed to the league? |
12:05 |
: Walk rate does improve until about 28 or 29 I think. One of the latest peaks.
|
12:05 |
Not sure about this track, but I did pick up Neutral Milk Hotel tickets for their Hollywood Bowl show in September! Meanwhile, who do you have more faith in ROS, Dyson or Gentry? |
12:05 |
: Gentry. Crisp is always broken and Reddick hurting now too.
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12:05 |
What in God’s green Earth is going on with Carlos Santana’s .139 BA??????? |
12:06 |
: .145 BABIP, 10% line drives. I think he’s getting under the ball too much, his fly ball percentage is high. I still believe in him, but not for average, never have.
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12:06 |
Best pitching prospect to stash, Syndergaard, Bradley, Heaney or Gausman? |
12:07 |
: My answer has been Gausman all year, but I have no idea what focal pneumonia is. Any doctors in the house? I still like him for most innings, but Heaney seems likely to come up soon, and Thor in the second half. Bradley has bad command and his team is trying everyone but him (maybe just till July 1), so I’ll put him third or last.
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12:08 |
BJ Upton’s wRC+ is up 21 points from last year. Do you believe that he’s going to be better than last year or is this an aberration? And if you think he will be better, can he get to 100 wRC+? |
12:08 |
: Too many strikeouts even with his improvements at the plate. 85/90 wRC+ and good defense still make him useful enough I think.
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12:09 |
Hi Eno. George Springer? Thank you. |
12:09 |
: Was always going to be a batting average risk with his contact rate problems. He could still be useful in OBP leagues, but batting average redraft leagues, he’s droppable.
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12:09 |
Drop Chris Tillman for Zach McAllister? Tillman sucks. |
12:10 |
: I agree with the latter but wonder if the former could be a better name.
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12:10 |
Who do you like better? Angel Pagan or Rajai Davis? |
12:10 |
: Pagan plays every day.
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12:10 |
Who’s the closer in Cleveland a week from now? |
12:10 |
: Axford?
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12:10 |
I had a beer from Ommegang and was….disappointed. What is this madness? It was Glimmerglass. This years Game of Thrones beer more than makes up for it though. |
12:10 |
: They don’t hit it with every beer even if they are generally good.
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12:10 |
Should I be concerned about Cole Hamels |
12:11 |
: Hole Camels should be fine. Whiff rate is still there and just needs to find command. He’s in spring training right now.
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12:11 |
With Kipnis on the DL. Whos the best soluation at 2b out of Neil Walker Omar Infante and Danny Espinosa |
12:11 |
: Walker for sure.
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12:11 |
I know its not a sexy question but, SSS aside, is Dom Brown drop-able in 12-team roto leagues? B.J. Upton is out there (category juice) and my current OF of Pence, Cruz, Pagan, Khris Davis, and Ozuna needs work. |
12:11 |
: Yeah but you put Brown on the wire next to Upton, I’m taking Brown.
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12:11 |
With Stults struggling, will Casey Kelly get a chance to start for the Padres? What do you expect from Kelly this year? |
12:12 |
: Wisler could be next. I like Kelly but not for K/9. More of a deep league play.
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12:12 |
what are the best metrics to analyze future hitting production? Pitching? |
12:13 |
: I start with K% for both. I look at gb/fb mixes for both too. That gives you a sense of their floor and ceiling. a guy with great K% and a good amount of fly balls could give you power and batting average. A pitcher with great K% and good GB could give you great Ks wiht low HRs.
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12:13 |
Traded Abreu for Adam Wainwright in a 10 team keeper league. Had too many first basemen and wanted to solidify my pitching. Thoughts? |
12:13 |
: Sure. Not sure Abreu is going to add the batting average to make him a top two guy at the position or anything.
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12:13 |
If you are in last place currently, but have a Blue-Chip trade prospect in a keeper league (i.e. Cabrera, Goldy), What kind of return would you be looking for? |
12:14 |
: If it’s a big dynasty where you keep everyone, I’d like two top pitching prospects (quantity and quality, and I want them to be close, like Stroman and Syndergaard or Meyer and Heaney) and a young bat that’s either in bigs or in Double-A ready to go.
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12:15 |
tired hands is aptly named because every time i go there i’m tired the next day from staying up late cuddling with a growler |
12:15 |
Hey, because I know you, I was able to answer 84-across in last Sunday’s LA Times crossword: 3-letter word for ‘Innovative musician Brian’ 🙂 |
12:15 |
Why be in the meantime when we’re in the Enotime! |
12:15 |
Andrew Heaney…any thoughts or musings? |
12:15 |
: I still think he’s a polished guy striking out minor leaguers with command more than stuff, but the K% jump was nice to see.
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12:16 |
: Hey if you’re in SF, come drink with me tonight! Stock in Trade, 7pm, happy hour prices.
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12:16 |
Is there a reason to start to be worried about Cashner or chalk that up to bad Cabrera defense |
12:16 |
: Eh. Was a bit hittable but maybe now he’ll break out the change and knuckle slider some more.
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12:16 |
Does Jesse Chavez have the stuff to be a top 45 SP the ROS |
12:17 |
: I think so. His cutter is his fastball and he gets 10% whiffs with it. The change and curve both good. Sometimes he hangs the curve, sometimes he throws the four-seam more than he should (2% this year). But he’s good.
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12:17 |
Glad to see the mets finally playing baseball the way we all expected. That is all |
12:17 |
: Wilmer Flores up to butcher the shortstop position!
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12:17 |
I just traded away Gyorko and LaRoche for Dozier and Dunn. I love trades in general because they’re so rare and such excite! But I think I killed this one. |
12:17 |
: Yeah I’d take the Dozier side all day.
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12:17 |
Do hard-hit foul balls get recognized in the determination of FIP and/or xFIP? That is, if a player hits a 450 ft shot 6 inches foul, is that accounted for in FIP/xFIP? |
12:17 |
: Nope.
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12:18 |
Is it appropriate for me to end my final graduate school paper with a conclusion consisting solely of “Draw your own.”? |
12:18 |
![]() Never say die. |
12:18 |
Youtube is blocked at work, so i’m assuming every week you post a John Mayer song? |
12:18 |
: HAH. Black Kids this week. Good lude. HEY YOU GUYS
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12:19 |
I tried selling high on my $1 Mesoraco and got a $5 Matt Joyce in return. I have Buster Posey and Miguel Montero as well, so not really hurting at C. This is an Ottoneu SABR league. Did I do good? |
12:19 |
: Coulda done better if it was a different sort of league, but Joyce more valuable in ottoneu too, since you can slot him in daily and have a platoon mate for him.
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12:19 |
When do I make my first major league start? When should those storing me on their farms call me up? |
12:20 |
: I think I’d wait until after his first start, sometime in the next couple of weeks, before I called him up. Just because he has some homer risk.
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12:20 |
drew smyly making you…smiley? |
12:21 |
: yeah he’s got great control and he’s throwing the change more. 140 IP max, but he’s useful.
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12:21 |
Which surprising team is more legit, Rockies or Brewers? |
12:21 |
: Brewers. They have a few guys under-performing!
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12:21 |
Liriano and Lincecum, big names with small production. Any usefulness left there? Based on your tweets it looks like Timmy is pretty much toast. |
12:21 |
: Done with Timmy and his 90 FB meatballs. Liriano I think could be okay.
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12:22 |
$35 Joe Mauer and $8 Lance Lynn is a fair trade for a $40 Posey if I have a surplus of pitching, right? |
12:22 |
: Sure
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12:22 |
WHy is Andrelton SImmons batting 9th in the order. OBP isn’t fantastic but don’t managers want guys with higher contact rates batting in the middle of the ordeR? |
12:22 |
: I believe the best place for him is 5th
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12:22 |
What is Trevor Bauer’s ceiling (numbers-wise)? And what is your assessment of the likelihood he reaches it? |
12:23 |
: He has three plus pitches and velocity, but pitches in the AL, but pitches in a pitcher’s park. This year I think he could high-threes ERA with 8k/9 or so. Could improve that later. Needs his chance.
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12:23 |
I own Starling Castro and Jonathan Villar. I can’t play both at the same time. No one in my league is interested in trading for either one. At this point do I play Villar over Castro even with the fewer at bats? It’s an .OBP league. |
12:23 |
: Castro for me, pretty squarely.
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12:23 |
Pujols over/under 35 HR this year? |
12:24 |
: Under cause DL stint.
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12:24 |
I am in middle infielder hell. Going forward Kolton Wong or Brad Miller? |
12:25 |
: Miller here!
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12:25 |
![]() This is the sort of thing that should inspire poetry from Maxamuz. |
12:25 |
Edwin Encarnacion… Is he okay? |
12:25 |
: Yeah. He might only hit .260 this year.
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12:25 |
Since today is the first day of the NFL Draft, what do you think the MLB needs to do to make it’s draft more popular? I know not many people watch college baseball when it’s televised, and high school baseball isn’t really a television sport. I think taking it off MLB Network would be a great start since their “analysts” are terrible, but I doubt that will ever happen. |
12:26 |
: Can’t IMO. Bust rate after the first ten picks soars to the point where it’s not that fun to track any more. In basketball, they all play pretty much.
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12:26 |
When is too early in a dynasty league to decide to sell. Both my closers lost their jobs in the first week, and while i expect improvement in my pitching staff otherwise (stras, zim, hamels, minor, floyd, gee), when is it too late to make up ground? I imagine I could fetch quite a bit for some of these guys in their last contract years. On the flip side, when is it not to late to go all in and trade all your minor leaguers to win? |
12:27 |
: you can still make a difference with five months left, and I don’t think the offers are that much worse two months from now!
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12:27 |
Should I be concerned enough about Sale’s health that I trade him for Bailey and Profar? |
12:28 |
: That’s not a terrible return, but why do that now. Selling low.
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12:28 |
B Gardner for D Salazar, who wins? |
12:28 |
: I want Salazar.
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12:28 |
Rick Porcello for Heyward in a redraft. Who wins? |
12:28 |
: I want Heyward, even though I like Porcello.
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12:28 |
“A skinny panda is taking first strikes for free” |
12:29 |
Neil Walker or DJLMeheiu? |
12:29 |
: WALKER. Why people question Walker I don’t know!
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12:29 |
Kris Bryant has to get the call this year. He is an anteater among ants. |
12:29 |
: yeah but he’s an outfielder at third right now.
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12:29 |
Should i go ahead and pull the plug and try to deal Cano? he’s a 1st rounder for me, so I won’t be keeping him next year anyways. And what tier OF could I target? |
12:30 |
: Top ten.
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12:30 |
You guys love Duda. So does the Mets FO, which is why they chose him. Why does TC insist on babying him. He is your first baseman, he has power. Bat him 4th. Or, do they realize you don’t want a guy to bat with runners on who would rather take a walk? |
12:31 |
: If you mean “FanGraphs writers” as us, no I don’t think anyone else joins in my Duda love. If you mean “people in this chat” as us, then I think it’s a cult thing. As for babying him.. well, he’s just a big baby man.
|
12:31 |
I’m a surly beast today. Am now ready to take it out on my fantasy team. Give Verlander his walking papers (in a trade) or will he return to being JV? |
12:31 |
: Sell. Not low, but sell.
|
12:31 |
Hey Eno, I’m in need of a replacement Utility player, currently carrying Emilio Bonifacio since he was having a hot start but now that he’s cooling down I need a replacement, the problem is that he’s providing my team with a majority of its steals, I’m eyeing Daniel Murphy, thoughts? |
12:31 |
: Serviceable idea, if you can’t deal with a .260 batting average.
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12:32 |
Drop Melancon for Janssen? I’m not sure how much longer CJ will be on the wire. I don’t know how to measure Melancon’s risk vs Janssen’s risk. |
12:32 |
: yeah that’s tough, a part-timer for a returner. I think I would make the switch. Toronto pen is screwed. Of course, I’d rather drop a bench piece to have both.
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12:32 |
What’s your expectation for Wilmer Flores? |
12:32 |
: Bad defense, little power, empty batting average.
|
12:32 |
Am i supposed to rough it out with Fielder it gets harder everyday, I foolishly thought he would rake in Arlington. |
12:32 |
: Can still .280/25 and be a top-ten first baseman with his current stable metrics.
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12:33 |
Rosario is my starting catcher, should I keep Montero or Pinto as back-up? Thanks! |
12:33 |
: Montero if you really need a backup.
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12:33 |
Do you think Atlanta will move Alex Wood to the pen in favor of Gavin Floyd? Feel like that’s a fireable offense. |
12:34 |
: They need to limit his innings some, they’ll try something. Could be pen for a few weeks. I’d still hold Wood. (ew)
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12:34 |
This is the first time in months I have been able to be here for the Eno chat. I can barely see my computer screen through all the happy tears. |
12:34 |
If I could make my Sonny Gray and K-Rod for his Greinke and Chapman happen, would I be smart or stupid? |
12:34 |
: Smart.
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12:34 |
Any deep thoughts on Pomeranz’s start last night? I keep wondering where the guy who massacred AA in the Indian’s system went the last few years. |
12:35 |
: Nice swinging strike rate, his velocity was up… they wicked smart.
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12:35 |
Looks like Marte is getting out of his slump. Think the Pirates can make a move up the division? |
12:35 |
: I still like that team. They need to sign Polanco and call him up.
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12:35 |
How much wood should I knock on to make sure Tulo stays healthy all year |
12:35 |
: All of it.
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12:35 |
My batted ball distance of 275 something to worry about? |
12:35 |
: that stuff always declines, but sure a little bit.
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12:35 |
What’s up with Cashner? The article you wrote on him was great… but his SwStr% is so low. What happened to his out pitch? |
12:36 |
: He’s throwing the grounder pitches more. Also, he likes his regular slider but I think his knuckle slider is way better. He said he throws his regular one 75%.
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12:36 |
are you worried at all about Aroldis? |
12:36 |
: no!
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12:36 |
: Okay I just caught up with noon. Wow. I’ll power.
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12:36 |
Kazmir, Peralta, Kluber – who has the better RoS and why? |
12:37 |
: Kazmir per inning. Kluber more innings.
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12:37 |
I was in a dentist chair during the entire duration of your chat last week. Think about how long you chat…man that sucked. |
12:37 |
: Yikes. Good thing we had ludes.
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12:37 |
Does Yasmani Grandal have legit power? I didn’t think he had any power, but this past week he hit 3 hrs and they were all monster shots. |
12:37 |
: yes.
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12:37 |
Which Mariner did you end up interviewing? |
12:37 |
: Chris Young yelled at me about baseball research, it was great. Danny Farquhar. Checked in with Straily.
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12:37 |
Is Panda Droppable? It’s just getting sad. |
12:38 |
: I think he can .275/18 the rest of the way still.
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12:38 |
Who do I drop for Fister coming off my DL: Ian Kennedy or Jon Niese? |
12:38 |
: Niese.
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12:38 |
![]() strike him out – throw him out. |
12:38 |
: reminds me of that Jose Constanza swing.
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12:38 |
YoEno, Could you help me understand how to independently analyze pitch values on Fangraphs player pages. At what point do pitches become above average? Elite? |
12:39 |
: Above zero is good, double digits is great. But those aren’t so great for analysis because look at RA Dickey’s fastball pitch values. Since people aren’t ready for his fastball, they whiff at it and make it look better. It’s just the result that happened on that pitch and doesn’t include sequencing.
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12:39 |
I really want to deal away Justin Upton and his 34% K rate and career high swSTR%/.400+ babip….I have him for $26 in a $260 cap league and want to trade him for $10 Arenado in an ottoneu style points league. Thoughts? (I have Freese/Ian Stewart at 3B w/ Franco on the farm) |
12:40 |
: Get a sweetener, like a pitcher.
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12:40 |
hey can i transfer this IT call to someone? this guy called me and has been talking for ten minutes about his kid deciding what major to pick, i’m not sure he even has a computer problem. he might not even be an employee here |
12:40 |
: Tell him Interpretative Dance is where the money is at these days.
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12:40 |
Miller made two bad errors yesterday – he’s not playing good defense. I expect a move this week if it keeps up. |
12:41 |
: He’s made some errors that stick out but also some great plays that help keep his numbers honest. Saw three great plays in Oakland series.
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12:41 |
Is Jose Abreu for real, or should I sell high? |
12:41 |
: He can do what he’s doing, with a dry spell for homers at some point.
|
12:41 |
Accidentally listened to 20 seconds of the CWS broadcast on MLBTV last night because I wasn’t sure which was the Cubs feed. Hawk shortened my lifespan by 3 days. |
12:41 |
Speaking of Cubs prospects, when do you think Bryant comes up? |
12:41 |
: As a 3b? September. As an OF? any time.
|
12:41 |
You starting Fister tomorrow? |
12:41 |
: Yes.
|
12:41 |
Can you do us all a favor and refrain from answering any brad miller questions today? Thanks. |
12:41 |
: oops
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12:42 |
White chicken chili and a baseball chat with Eno. Now why am I stuck inside at work reconciling invoices with no beer….. No one believes me when I tell them beer will make the invoicing process faster and more accurate. |
12:42 |
Summer beers are starting to be released. What is your favorite season for beer and why? |
12:42 |
: I love wet hopped IPAs, so that’s fall and spring generally.
|
12:42 |
Is Cliff Lee okay? A few really terrible starts but his peripherals are lovely |
12:43 |
: He’s in the zone so much he’s susceptible to Dan Haren problems, though his stuff is better.
|
12:43 |
I am finally back in the big leagues – What do you expect from me? Am I even worthy of a flyer in standard leagues? |
12:43 |
: No I don’t think so.
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12:43 |
Will Sergio Santos regain the closer role or does Janssen takeover when he comes back from the DL? |
12:45 |
: Janssen gets it back. Santos has about a 25% chance of finding his command and getting the role back.
|
12:45 |
what is alex gordon doing with my life |
12:45 |
: i read wife
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12:47 |
: sorry
|
12:47 |
: They paiting at my house because we moving
|
12:47 |
: I have to answer questions. BUT I”M BACK
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12:47 |
is tommy john contagious? |
12:48 |
: Oh god stay away.
|
12:48 |
May I use Homo Semiens as a team name next year? |
12:48 |
: Homo Schoops not going to take off the same way.
|
12:48 |
Hi Eno — should I sell high on Morse in an NL only league? Or do you think he bucks his injury trend? |
12:48 |
: Been healthy one year and got 550 PA that year. So no, I’d put him down for 400 or so this year.
|
12:49 |
HOW COME NO TALK OF OZUNA? OZUNA NO LIKE! |
12:49 |
: I like him, always did. The only thing that worries me is the 15% swinging strike rate. Maybe he can be fine with that as a young man, but it will bite him some day.
|
12:49 |
is Jake Peavy due for an implosion? the spike in his walk rate is incredibly troubling for a guy who’s had good control the past 3 years, and he seems to completely lose the zone at times |
12:49 |
: He’s an old man at this point.
|
12:49 |
What kind of batting average and home run numbers do you see Arenado posting in his prime? |
12:49 |
: .300/25?
|
12:50 |
“Mookie, what is Betts in life?” “To crush baseballs, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their pitchers” |
12:50 |
How much upside does James Paxton have? |
12:51 |
: Does need a third pitch. If velocity sticks around could be really good. Very large range of outcomes still. And his velocity is crazy from week to week.
|
12:51 |
Is there any stat that measures bat speed? I always hear baseball people talk about a player’s bat speed but have never seen it quantified. |
12:51 |
: Might come with new data.
|
12:51 |
Will I still be the starting SS in a month? |
12:51 |
: I can’t believe it.
|
12:51 |
This sucks. |
12:51 |
My sister’s a flight attendant and had a layover in Belgium today, so I had her pick up a few bottles of Westmalle Trappist for me. Should I be excited? |
12:52 |
: Yes.
|
12:52 |
Thoughts on Grant Green? Drop him for Wilmer Flores in a points league that’s heavy on hits and RBI with negative points for Ks? |
12:52 |
: You can drop Green.
|
12:52 |
Eno! So has anyone come up with a ‘lineup factor’ which, like park factor, can adjust for how good a player’s lineup spot is? And if 1 is league average for a first baseman, what would Rizzo’s and Morneau’s be right now? |
12:52 |
: The only thing that lineup spot matters for is PA. So, higher up you are, the more PA you get!
|
12:52 |
Do you approve of Toronto using Stroman out of the pen initially, or do you think that can mess with his ability to start down the road? |
12:52 |
: Hopefully it’s short-term.
|
12:52 |
Given Xander’s struggles, is Mookie Betts looking like a better prospect? |
12:53 |
: Xander is not struggling in my opinion.
|
12:53 |
How soon do the Braves call up La Stella? It certainly feels like they are just buying time to try to avoid Super Two status. |
12:53 |
: Could be. Watch Pena. Uggla already in wrong side platoon.
|
12:53 |
I know you answer this probably 25 times a day, but any word on when Polanco is coming up? He is really mashing, and I’ve got him stashed right now |
12:53 |
: If they sign him to a seven year deal, up tomorrow.
|
12:53 |
Gausman’s “injury” last week was *just* pneumonia. PHEW |
12:53 |
: FOCAL pneumonia wth is that.
|
12:53 |
Gausman’s cleared for pitching |
12:54 |
: PHew.
|
12:54 |
What are your thoughts on Wil Myers so far and his future? |
12:54 |
: .260/25 with a 30+ peak.
|
12:54 |
![]() This requires no explanation. It just is. |
12:54 |
Re your Khris Davis tweet, if I drop him, should I pick up Colby Rasmus or Rajai Davis? Have some SBs, but not a ton. |
12:54 |
: If those are your choices… if you can pick up Davis and put him on your bench and play him v LHP, that’s fine.
|
12:54 |
How do you feel about me? |
12:55 |
: Still warm and tingly.
|
12:55 |
Is it just a matter of time before Sabathia’s performance starts matching up with his peripherals? |
12:55 |
: The only thing that worries me is a homer explosion on a low velocity fastball. Think Tim Lincecum. But! CC can command his FB better IMO.
|
12:56 |
Time to move on from the sinking ship that is Martin Prado or can you see a turn-around coming? |
12:56 |
: He’s watching strike one go by too much. If he starts swinging at that, shouldn’t be hard to .280/15 the rest of the way.
|
12:56 |
Is it time to cut ties with Moustakas? |
12:57 |
: .240/15 seems like it’s a generous rating of his RoS upside at thisp oint.
|
12:57 |
Teixeira is a producer (period). 34 isn’t *that* old. |
12:57 |
: I have him in two leagues.
|
12:57 |
Don’t you think Kuroda changing his repertoire and throwing more sinkers than sliders seems like a bad idea with that wretched Yankee infield. I mean….VIVA EL CAPITAN!!!!!!! |
12:57 |
: yeah and what it means about his slider seems to be worrisome too. He was always old, now he’s older. #yogiism
|
12:58 |
I have done so well in my current leauge that the other owners are worried about making a trade with me. Multiple people are worried that if I want to get rid of a player he is going to fall apart. What the heck should I do. |
12:58 |
: Happens. Sometimes I overpay in this situation and then people think they can get me to overpay and I start getting offers. And if you overpay for needs, sometimes it’s fine. You have the most assets, it’s about winning though.
|
12:58 |
Homer Bailey for Stephenson + Maikel Franco in a dynasty league, who says no |
12:58 |
: Bailey.
|
12:59 |
apparently gausman at one point thought he was having a stroke or heart attack because of pneumonia so that’s a great sign |
12:59 |
Do you think Mejia stays in the rotation? I just made a Jose REyes and Mejia for Iwakuma and Simmons trade but didnt know that about MEJIA :/ |
12:59 |
: I think so, there’s some drum-beat for him as a closer but I think they need to try and squeeze the most innings out of him as possible and I love his stuff.
|
12:59 |
is springer + meyer for masterson a fair deal? |
1:00 |
: Hard to know, don’t know your league. I’d jump at Meyer side. But I don’t veto.
|
1:00 |
Who finishes the season stronger, Garrett Richards or Shelby Miller? |
1:00 |
: Miller’s park and league will make for a nice boost.
|
1:00 |
Hi Eno! I have a handful of top 60 starters and I am hoping to capitalize on matchups. How do you determine when to start a pitcher in leauges with innings limits? Park factors? Opponent wOBA? Thanks as always for the help! |
1:00 |
: Park factors and general team strength.
|
1:01 |
So…Mookie Betts is unbelievable, and the BoSox kind of have a blockage in the form of Dustin Pedroia at 2B, and the Braves have Dan Uggla… Is there any conceivable way that Atlanta could deal for the Mookie Monster? |
1:01 |
: They going to send pitching to Boston now? Doubt it.
|
1:02 |
Have you gathered any data for Beergraphs on Boulevard’s 2014 Saison Brett? I think it just came out on Monday. |
1:02 |
: Oh love that beer. don’t see it yet.
|
1:02 |
Any stats that correlate well with holds? I am having touble finding hold projections. |
1:02 |
: The only thing I found with save opps was team run scoring and team bullpen strength. Then you look for good K-BB.
|
1:02 |
Hello Eno, Jason Kipnis’s injury is killing my fantasy teams. Can you rank for the following month: Kelly Johnson, Infante, Espinosa, S Gennett, B Miller. Should I trade Morse for Bonifacio instead? |
1:03 |
: Morse idea is good. Otherwise, Gennett for batting average, KJ for power and speed.
|
1:03 |
Dom Brown going go turn it around? |
1:03 |
: Maybe too many ground balls to hit more than 25 homers this year, but otherwise yeah.
|
1:03 |
is martin perez a good baseball player? (comparatively speaking) |
1:04 |
: Great change, good sinker. Needs a breaker, but that combo should be good enough to be above-average at least.
|
1:04 |
I’m a doctor, just not the useful kind. |
1:04 |
Samardzija first pitcher traded this summer? What sort of return? |
1:05 |
: Man they’re holding out. Red Sox and Braves seem like obvious fits, maybe more Red Sox. Ranaudo, Betts and another piece?
|
1:05 |
I picked up Wilson Ramos because he was there, but I already have Salty and Wilin on the DL. Who’s the most droppable? C is so deep right now I can’t work out a trade (1-catcher league) |
1:05 |
: Salty
|
1:05 |
So are you opening a bar or what? |
1:05 |
: Yeah that’s not happening now at least. I have a good idea, a space spotted, and an opening in the market here in Palo Alto, but BeerGraphs will be my bar for now.
|
1:06 |
spacehog song now in my head all day |
1:06 |
Thoughts on Henderson Alvarez? If the low K’s are not an issue is he a viable option in mixed leagues? |
1:06 |
: Only not an issue if you don’t have innings limits really. But as a streamer/h2h guy in front of a standout pen, sure.
|
1:06 |
I want Mookie Betts to be a guy who plays all over the field for fantasy lineup construction purposes. Do you think this is likely? |
1:07 |
: Apparently he doesn’t love shortstop. so center/second possible still.
|
1:07 |
Drop Khrush Davis for Brandon Moss? Brandon Moss is basically more consistent power with less speed? |
1:07 |
: Yeah do that. Khrush has terrible swing metrics right now.
|
1:07 |
Which SS you like the best ROS? Everth, Simmons, Hardy, Villar, Escobar, Owings. |
1:07 |
: Simmons, Everth, Escobar, Hardy, Villar
|
1:07 |
Wily the Nilly Peralta looked very hittable yesterday. SELL SELL SELL |
1:07 |
: Agree.
|
1:08 |
Any form of pneumonia is an inflammation of the lungs, it’s usually caused by a bacterial or viral infection, but there can be other causes. I think focal pneumonia means it has very specific localized symptoms. Not sure on the focal part. |
1:08 |
: Sounds like it’s not a problem. Unless it’s pneumonia of the shoulder.
|
1:08 |
I should be cramming for my 3:00 final. |
1:08 |
Improved BB% and K% for Puig thus far, think he can get to a WAR in the high 5’s? |
1:09 |
: Yes I like what he’s doing. Health is an interesting factor suddenly.
|
1:09 |
Colabello is regressing…..quickly…. |
1:09 |
: yuuuuuup
|
1:09 |
Eno, Who has more homers by years end, Votto or Prince? |
1:09 |
: Great one. Votto?!
|
1:09 |
I forgot to mute the sound and thought there was a rat somewhere in the room, so I overturned numerous pieces of furniture trying to flush it out. End transmission. |
1:09 |
Do you think the guy who used to send us photo from class graduated or flunked out? |
1:09 |
: I’m going to tell myself he graduated.
|
1:10 |
Need some outfield help and have depth at 3B with both Rendon and Zimnerman. Thinking about offering Donaldson for Melky, what do you think? Maybe the more important question, is Melky for real? |
1:10 |
: I’d rather trade Rendon for Melky, and I love Rendon.
|
1:10 |
Any thoughts on Gavin Floyd in Atlanta? Think he can post a sub 3.7 ERA? |
1:10 |
: Not a fan.
|
1:10 |
Your thoughts on Mesoraco? When healthy, does he outproduce a guy like Lucroy or Wieters? |
1:11 |
: I was super into him going into the season and thought he could .265/18. That *might* beat Wieters actually, but probably not.
|
1:11 |
Do you believe Collin McHugh’s ridiculous start is even remotely sustainable? |
1:12 |
: The per pitch numbers are great but in a tiny sample. I want another start of dataat least.
|
1:12 |
Higher WAR at the end of the season: Trout or Tulo? |
1:12 |
: Trout doesn’t have the injury history.
|
1:13 |
Which side? Dee Gordon & Jayson Werth for Jay Bruce & Neil Walker? |
1:13 |
: Gordon side.
|
1:13 |
What combination of magic dust and filth is Koehler using to get things done for the Fish? |
1:14 |
: Great slider, okay sinker, curve for grounders, bad change. I think it’ll catch up to him.
|
1:14 |
Is Chase Headley worth owning in a 12 team mixed league? I’d be cutting Asdrubal Cabrera. I have EE at 3B and Peralta at SS. |
1:14 |
: You’re weaker at SS, stay put.
|
1:14 |
A couple years ago Brad Woodrum wrote something up that defined sabermetrics. One of the branches was “Game Strategy.” IMO that branch officially hit puberty last year with shifting and platooning up across the game. Are there any other sabermetric developments you’re excited about on the game strategy front? |
1:15 |
: Bunting vs the shift? With ten starters needed by every team, perhaps the development of a better swing pitcher that is designed to be in pen and also start?
|
1:15 |
How many ughs does it take to produce one Uggla? |
1:15 |
Am I stupid? I’m stupid, right? Or am I just dumb? |
1:15 |
How many other Germaican, beer-swilling baseball writers exist? |
1:15 |
sometimes you have to say die, for instance during board games or if a person actually dies |
1:15 |
Getting a kegerator and need help on picking first barrel. Leaning toward goose island 312 for summer drink ability. Any other ideas? |
1:16 |
: You can do better. If you’re in Chicago, get a Half Acre daisy cutter.
|
1:16 |
Worried at all about Everth Cabrera or Andrelton Simmons? Everth not really running (compared to last year) and Simmons is batting 9th. 9th?! Behind the freaking pitcher. Meaning the Braves would rather Harang get more ABs than Simmons. Whats going on? |
1:16 |
: Not as worried about Simmons. Cabrera am I a bit. He’s striking out like he used to, too.
|
1:16 |
Dave Cameron forces you to represent fangraphs on High Heat with Christopher Russo or MTV2’s Off the Bat. But he lets you choose which one. What are you going to do? |
1:17 |
: oh my god Off the Bat so much so. I’d be dealing with players! I cannot deal with all that yelling.
|
1:17 |
Trade Braun for Encarnacion? |
1:17 |
: no
|
1:17 |
interesting article on daniel murphy being essentially kipnis. and for the same amt. of time. are you a believer? something like 15/85r/70rbi/20sb/.290 reasonable for 2014? |
1:17 |
: No
|
1:17 |
: I don’t think he’ll steal 20. 12 homers maybe.
|
1:17 |
Had a few Mongos last week on a nice warm Saturday. So juicy, so good. Perfect for sitting on a patio. |
1:18 |
If the Tigers don’t go wire-to-wire this year, who catches them? |
1:18 |
: Indians.
|
1:18 |
joyce or gentry in lf? |
1:18 |
: Joyce
|
1:18 |
MLBAM wont go after the S&B podcast will they? |
1:18 |
: We don’t have a team name associated with us.
|
1:18 |
I miss the offseason, when I could get to these chats like an hour late, put some questions in the queue, and still see them answered. We need a way to determine the REAL FANS |
1:18 |
: 12:25.
|
1:19 |
Ever had a Stone Enjoy By? I heard, hype aside, they’re the best. Tangentially, how much attention do you pay to freshness codes on bottles? |
1:19 | : God I love them. You have to look at freshness for IPAs. So important. |
1:19 |
Odor, Alcantra, joc pederson worth a roster spot in a 16 team dynasty league? any chance any see action this year? |
1:20 |
: Alcantara maybe. Odor woulda been up if he’d a been up. Joc super crowded.
|
1:20 |
Any chance we see an upside surprise from Chris Young this year? He is batting in the middle of the Mets lineup now |
1:20 |
: The plate discipline stats are a surprise.
|
1:20 |
: He could be, actually.
|
1:20 |
Viciedo and Yelich for K-Rod/Venable in an OBP league – is the K-rod side a slam dunk? |
1:21 |
: Not really, I’ll take Yelich as best position player in deal, and with Vicideo’s new K%, I might take him over Venable too. Plus I HATE trading for closers.
|
1:21 |
Cigar City Jai Alai(East) vs Ballast Point(West) Sculpin.. |
1:21 |
: Cigar City.
|
1:21 |
You think Alex Meyer is up soon? I know $, etc – but Minnesota’s staff is complete garbage. If he gets call in next 2 weeks – what’s he able to accomplish as a starter with those 125 innings or so? |
1:21 |
: Problem is he might not even have enough innings built up to do that. He hsould be up soon.
|
1:21 |
no way..harold reynolds is spot on everytime, all the time. why, just a few days ago, he mused that castellanos will be AL ROY and said it with a straight face |
1:22 |
What the hell is wrong with Allen Craig? And, should I trade him for Cole Hamels? |
1:22 |
: I’d do that.
|
1:22 |
“in basketball, they all play pretty much” Otto Porter Jr indicates that the “pretty much” is important for the accuracy of that statement |
1:22 |
: My point was more that they make the team immediately and the potential for impact on team results in the next year is way greater than baseball.
|
1:23 |
I have John Axford as my only established closer in AL-only. Therefore if I was to trade him I would be very desperate for saves. Do I still try to trade him now while I can still get value or ride it out and hope he can hang on to the job? |
1:23 |
: They really don’t want to go to Allen, it seems, and Axford owns a lot of gas over Shaw…
|
1:23 |
Gotta talk about that 17-1 minor league comeback, right? |
1:23 |
: I think it was in a pitcher’s league too…
|
1:23 |
I am getting hosed, right? |
1:24 |
: Yeah Tomlin leaves me cold, I don’t get it.
|
1:24 |
Ramos came back from the DL, so I dropped Brayan Pena instead of D’Arnaud. Good call or bad call? |
1:24 |
: good call
|
1:24 |
Is the party over for Kazmir and Chavez? I felt like it was too good to be true… |
1:24 |
: no
|
1:24 |
Nobody loves dillon gee. I get his FIP is around 4, but he is a contact pitcher. Dont they typically outpitch their FIP? |
1:24 |
: He’s actually a strikeout pitcher with an 89 mph fastball that he throws high in the zone. Not a great GB%. I dunno. Borderline for mixed leagues.
|
1:25 |
Will Santana lose catcher eligibility next season? |
1:25 |
I love the typewriter noise used to indicate a new comment. That’s all. |
1:25 |
: yes and yes
|
1:25 |
“It’s May 8, and the Marlins tied for first in the NL East.” Uttering those words in March would have gotten you committed to some sort of institution. |
1:25 |
Is Tyson Ross any good? Do I dump him when Anibal Sanchez comes off the DL? |
1:25 |
: He’s okay as a spot starter but loss of velocity makes me want to start him only at home.
|
1:26 |
![]() why the reason to sell on verlander? |
1:27 |
: Lost two mph on fastball in last two years, and I’m interested to see how much of his command was wrapped up in that. (great velocity can turn balls into strikes by outside the zone misses) Also, he had surgery going into the year, so he represents some sort of added injury risk.
|
1:27 |
Sit/start Keuchel in Detroit today? 10-team H2H QS. |
1:27 |
: I would, SIR Sidney.
|
1:27 |
IT’S ME BIRTHDAY! Estrada worth holding onto? Also, jigger me jibblets? |
1:27 |
: Yes and yes.
|
1:27 |
Sell high on Kazmir, thoughts? |
1:28 |
Brandon McCarthy 12 team mixed league valueable? Do you think his velocity increase is sustainable. |
1:28 |
: Just cause he should miss time. (Kazmir no lock for 150+ IP)
|
1:28 |
: McCarthy: fastball velocity stable after three starts!
|
1:29 |
where does the Dogfish 120 place in your DIPA rankings? |
1:29 |
: in the barleywines.
|
1:29 |
Traded Greinke for Kemp and Ubaldo, was desperate for power. Did I over pay? Thanks Eno |
1:29 |
: Even if Ubaldo doesn’t work out, it’s an okay risk.
|
1:29 |
Cano turns it around in the power department? |
1:29 |
: 23 homers.
|
1:30 |
Are you in agreement with ZIPS ROS for Heyward? 15HR 57R 44RBI 9SB .249 BA or do you see more? |
1:30 |
: I could see more homers since his batted ball mix has changed.
|
1:30 |
Eno, have you been crushed with injuries and poor performance like the rest of us? Am I crazy to start Plouffe over Panda for now? Any hope for him? Danke |
1:30 |
: Starting him but keeping both seems like a good way to go. Have some teams doing well, but overall, this year doesn’t look as good as last year for me.
|
1:31 |
What should I expect from Pedroia going forward? Should I try to trade him? |
1:31 |
: Maybe he’ll just always lose power to some injury or another.
|
1:31 |
WHARR’S ME YARBLES? |
1:31 |
: dunnno
|
1:31 |
Does Zurzles have to knock on the Wood your holding? |
1:31 |
: that might hurt
|
1:32 |
Have many saves does Loup end with? |
1:32 |
: four
|
1:32 |
Howie Kendrick’s walk rate is almost double last years, seems to be laying off pitches outside of the zone. That something that can change that much between seasons, or just noise? Thanks for the chat! |
1:32 |
: swing rates are stabilizing, strikeout rates too, a little more time for walk rates.
|
1:32 |
When do I start making trades based on the roto standings? |
1:33 |
: You can, now, if you don’t see upside in a problem category on your team.
|
1:33 |
rollins or alcides? |
1:33 |
: Rollins.
|
1:33 |
Masterson looks good today. Do you like him ROS? |
1:33 |
: what’s he hitting? velocity wise?
|
1:33 |
That was strike 2 and then he threw the ball into center field. So, don’t strike him out, don’t throw him out. |
1:34 |
The best part of that Maxamuz gif is that the catcher airmailed it into the outfield immediately after. |
1:34 |
Which SP prospect gets called up next? |
1:34 |
: Meyer?
|
1:34 |
Who should I keep in my IF slot: Teixeria or Headley? avg/obp/slg |
1:34 |
: Teix
|
1:35 |
juan pierres mustache, That still beats the guy who called me earlier with an unintelligible accent who was on-site in Texas trying to figure out where to deliver something. For clarification, I’m only billing for the project in Tennessee, no idea how he got my number or why calling a office several hundred miles away was his go to source for driving directions. |
1:35 |
Eno, what’re your thoughts on HanRam RoS? Is he going to hit .300 and go 20/15, or do you think that he’s more pedestrian. There’s a chance that I could get Segura and Yordano plus for him in a deep keeper, I’ve also got Bogaerts. |
1:37 |
: I don’t see him hitting .300, see him ending up with .275/22/20 or something. If you need pitching, SEgura and Yordano is pretty sexy to me, especialy with XB backup plan .I still think Segura can .280 10/30
|
1:37 |
Expecting anything from Profar this year? |
1:38 |
: Yes. some power, some speed, .260 BA or so.
|
1:38 |
Is it a crime that Roenis Elias is unowned in a 16-team dynasty points league? Do I need to rectify that? |
1:39 |
: We’ll have to see if he can keep the fixed arm slot, or his command will leave him again. But I like what I see.
|
1:39 |
When Marcus Stroman makes his first start can someone write an article called “A StroMan Argument” |
1:39 |
Is Matt Cain getting close to droppable in a 12 teamer? |
1:39 |
: Not yet. a Few homers skewing okay line.
|
1:39 |
Have you had Easy Jack? I was highly disappointed. |
1:39 |
: Oh no. Not yet. I heard it was good.
|
1:40 |
Don’t worry, Alex Gordon won’t go past first base with your wife this year. |
1:40 |
Why do I still have a job… |
1:40 |
: NO idea.
|
1:40 |
tell us how you *really* feel about Wilmer Flores… |
1:41 |
: He’s been getting too much credit for being young and I thought we learned this lesson with F-Mart.
|
1:41 |
Eno, I don’t think you’re giving Flores enough credit. Perhaps he’s not worth a flier in standard re-draft leagues, but with 25 HR potential according to some scouts and solid average (.270-.280), he could be a pretty valuable SS don’t you think? |
1:41 |
: I don’t see that homer potential. I see more of an empty batting average actually, and he hasn’t played SS regularly for like three years.
|
1:42 |
What’s my major malfunction? |
1:42 |
: Change is still no good.
|
1:42 |
: Maybe if had gas to go with the Ks. But the command is bad.
|
1:43 |
Maybe Brett Cecil runs away with the Toronto closer job!! |
1:43 |
: answer then question!
|
1:43 |
Punting steals in H2H. Peralta or Simmons. I think Simmons has more potentia, but batting 9th after the pitcher!!!??? |
1:43 |
: Simmons so simmons.
|
1:43 |
No question – but a guy in my fantasy league tried to say QS is a sabermetric stat. HA. |
1:43 |
I have Abreu, Morneau and Teix. Sell high on Morneau? |
1:44 |
: Sure. Injury risk.
|
1:44 |
Saw Mookie Betts, get excited. this guy has to be better than everyone on the sox minus bogie and dustin right? Put him that zobrist role spierer mentioned in his article, seems a callup could be way more imminent. nuts? |
1:44 |
: he just got to Double-A! I love the kid, but we can step off the gas.
|
1:44 |
How much longer can Soriano and KRod keep doing what they’re doing, are they destined for regression? |
1:45 |
: Their velocity screams regression. But their K-BB is great. I might hate on them more than I should.
|
1:45 |
Just curious, how many questions have you read so far (approximately) |
1:46 |
: I think I’m answer one of 15 or so right now.
|
1:46 |
The Zips and Steamer updated projections have Arenado and Beltre putting up nearly identical 5×5 number. Does that sound about right to you? |
1:46 |
: No. I mean, I’d still take Beltre.
|
1:46 |
Should I trade Melky for Homer Bailey? |
1:46 |
: Yes
|
1:46 |
Why doesn’t Everth run? SHould someone start chasing him? |
1:47 |
is .188/.316/.750 not the best triple slash you have ever seen? (Zach Walters in just 19 PA, but still) |
1:47 |
What are your thoughts on Hosmer’s performance so far. I’m interested in your opinion on him as a hitter considering that you have discussed hitting with him. |
1:47 |
: He hasn’t changed his swing plane. So I think he’ll have a good average and 15-20 homers most years. Think Billy Butler with a little more speed. One peak year will fool everyone.
|
1:47 |
Someone’s sister is in Belgium and we didn’t mention waffles. |
1:48 |
: yeah but I don’t have a wafflemaker or a waffle button
|
1:48 |
“They paiting at my house because we moving” Poetry. |
1:48 |
: I’m also a finger down because basketball.
|
1:48 |
FEATURE REQUEST: Additional velociraptors, current player pages have too many numbers, too few velociraptors |
1:48 |
Gotta cut the fat, we’re having locker room problems. Do I cut Khris Davis or Dom Brown? |
1:49 |
: Khris. Swing metrics FUBAR.
|
1:49 |
Will states start cracking down or taxing the daily stuff? do you consider it gambling? |
1:49 |
: I find the line between gambling and gaming to be ridiculous and irrelevant, but I have some libertarian leanings. Some states have stopped it (Washington), but I don’t support that.
|
1:50 |
Being north of 40 and not a fantasy player, I tend to always root for the old guys…. |
1:50 |
: Good stories, not great bets.
|
1:50 |
Eno, just like to say thanks for being awesome and answering fantasy questions from randoms on Twitter. Also, I dropped Hiroki Kuroda to pick up Danny Salazar, and I’m not sure how I feel about it. I feel pretty good I suppose, but I’m scared I might feel pretty bad later on. Comfort me. |
1:50 |
: That is scary, but Kuroda’s new mix and Salazar’s awesome stuff… good luck!
|
1:51 |
Is it me, or is Trout having a really hard time making contact lately? Seems like the majority of his swings end up as foul balls, and he watches way too many pitches go right down the plate. Is the minor shoulder injury he suffered at the end of spring an issue again, or is he just slumping? |
1:52 |
: Contact rate is down, and he is reaching more. Could be going for power. If the BABIP is anything less than superlative (like .380 carer), yes it might be worrisome.
|
1:52 |
Are you particularly encouraged or discouraged by Gerrit Cole so far? |
1:52 |
: Still love him.
|
1:52 |
wondering if the saber-intelligensia community is still up in arms over the Eaton and Davidson “fleecings” …? |
1:53 |
: Eaton is a much better player and asset than Hector Santiago. Reed is a reliever. Davidson always carried a bust rate with him. I don’t see this trade differently now, still love it for Chicago.
|
1:53 |
Getting Jason Kipnis (even with injury) is a no brainer for Carlos Santana, right? |
1:53 |
: Yes
|
1:53 |
Have you tried Heady Topper by The Alchemist? And what are your thoughts on it if you have? |
1:54 |
: I liked it, but it’s not top five for me. I like some of the more malt-forward west-coast style DIPAS a bit better.
|
1:54 |
Is Alex Wood destined for the bullpen this week (or later)? |
1:54 |
: Not for good.
|
1:54 |
You adding Pomeranz in mixed leagues? |
1:54 |
: No
|
1:54 |
If this is an interlude, then what is an extralude? Or an intralude? |
1:55 |
: whoa, lude.
|
1:55 |
Over/Under 125IP for Gausman? |
1:55 |
: under at this point.
|
1:55 |
Have any MLB teams ever tried to contact you or any other Fangraphs writers about consulting or something like that? |
1:55 |
: There are multiple guys on staff that do that sort of thing. I’m not smart enough.
|
1:56 |
I once had shoulder pneumonia, Doc Brown told me I just needed some Pepsi Free. |
1:56 |
Do you think Lucroy is a top 12 catcher this year? |
1:56 |
: yes
|
1:56 |
Mike Fiers…. explain. |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Hello Eno, Jason Kipnis’s injury is killing my fantasy teams. Can you rank for the following month: Kelly Johnson, Infante, Espinosa, S Gennett, B Miller. Should I trade Morse for Bonifacio instead?