Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/17/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the Dream Series kicked off his morning. My attendance there plus what looks like it might be a looming Roki decision (he’s my responsibility to write up) means our chat will be shorter today.

Eric A Longenhagen: You know where to find the stuff I wrote for his week, I trust. So let’s get to it..

Phil: So all the sign are there. Roki will be a Blue Jay.

Eric A Longenhagen: A GM just told me that when they sourced uncommitted bonus pool amounts that Toronto had $1 million left. Acquiring a reported $2 mil puts them at an available $3 mil without breaking a deal.

Eric A Longenhagen: So we shall see

CY: Any insight on the Rangers pitching development this past year? Seems like they got a lot of breakouts with Alejandro rosario, kumar rocker, emiliano teodo, winston santos, kohl drake, and even some relief-only prospects in bryan magdaleno and skylar hales

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I mean, Rosario’s breakout might be more about the U of Miami’s incompetence more than the Rangers having some kind of magic, and it isn’t like Rocker was *bad*, just hurt. That’s a good system, but I don’t see a specific change or trait happening across that list of names.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Dylan Lesko?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good stuff, scary control, getting past where his wildness can be explained away by a lack of reps.

Felix: Who’s list is next?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working the Gulf Coast clubs now, would guess one of PHI or NYY with PIT, TOR, ATL, DET in the mix

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a Franyer Herrera start on right now

Guest: Who excites you the most from the Mets 2024 draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just Benge, mostly. Maybe they’ll make something out of Tanner Witt? I once thought he’d be good.

doughboy: Fair to say winds of change coming and McGonigle is rapidly surpassing Max Clark as the jewel of the Tigers d2023 draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: Certainly isn’t crazy, McGonigle is good, looks incredible (and comfortably better than Clark) on the spreadsheet.

Mucho: Any idea why Dawel Joseph faceplanted so hard in the DSL last season? Can he rebound?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s just volatility in that market, he was an arrow down guy during the commitment window.

Terry Loves Tech: Alejandro Rosario seems to be getting hyped a bunch. Are you high on him too?

Eric A Longenhagen: He entered the top 100 during the ’24 season, so….

Refugee: Process question: how do you make sure you’re staying up-to-date with the industry? You’ve mentioned how you iterate (especially with certain types of hit tool risk), but that seems to reflect on how you learn from yourself, as opposed to keeping up with front offices and scouts.

Eric A Longenhagen: Are you talking about staying up to date on players, or methodology, or what? This is almost a great question, I hope it’s fine for me to say “yes” and move on.

Phil: Who you taking… Paul Skenes or Roki Sasaki?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess Skenes, more physical and better health track record. I’ll throw Eury Perez’s name into that group, don’t forget about that guy.

Sodo Mojo: Harry Ford seems to be sliding out of a lot of top 100s this preseason.  Given his age and level is that premature or is his lack of power and questions about his position a valid reason to down rank him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I tend to give catchers a wide berth because of their job description. This has worked out for me sometimes and not at others. Like Adley slugged .390 this year, do you think that’s his true talent, or do you think he was dinged up?

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there anything to Esteban Mejía (RHP, 17) for Baltimore? Was decent in the DSL but clearly has generic command/control problems. Upper 90s, somehow changed his arm slot from high-3/4s to low-3/4s based on his official announcement video vs. 2024 game tape. Trying to guess where he’s starting next year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have him up to 97, distinct two and four seamers, slider played like a plus pitch, def a prospect, hope he’s in FL

Johnny5Alive: I have seen a lot of hype articles about zyhir hope. I assume he hasn’t been updated yet or are you not buying the hype?

Eric A Longenhagen: I get questions about him every week, I’ve written about him and think he’s a 45+, smaller data sample from ’24 is masking how much swing and miss he has, similar to Colson Montgomery the year before, think he’s good but flawed enough not to be all-in

Helly R.: Tejada is listed as an org guy on today’s SF, do you have a little more info on that? Is it lack of projection, hit tool, athleticism, etc.?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the numbers are huge but the look is just ok, medium tools and projection

Shirtless George Brett: What do you think of the Royals basically killing the idea of Caglianone pitching? I know they said “this year” but I cant imagine he goes back to the mound afterwards. you think he is athletic enough to shift to LF/RF if he is just gonna hit? His  arm seems kinda wasted at 1B and god do the Royals need help in the OF.

Eric A Longenhagen: Run him out as a hitter and revisit the mound if he flops. Looked bad in the AFL, swing is so long. Let him focus on hitting for a year and see what happens, his ceiling is bigger there and his arm might need prolonged rest, the guy’s velo was way way down last year.

Bork: Do we have any intel on where Sasaki is currently? Or if he’s on a plane flying anywhere? Asking for a friend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, I’m chatting with y’all and trying to figure out how to squeeze a workout in before Dream Series, not trying to play newsbreaker today.

WFTF: Are you doing a “How’s My Driving” for 2018 this year? I imagine it’s super time consuming to produce, but we rarely see publications evaluate past rankings.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s on the prospect week docket

Pinstripe Perry: Assuming Sasaki heads to LA, have you heard any industry grumbling about the perceived Dodgers/Japan pipeline? Or is that mostly a fan talking point.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like there’s predetermination? No. Please delete your Twitters, everyone.

TooDamnTall: I just wanted to say a big thanks for all your work.

Eric A Longenhagen: My pleasure, thank you

SteveS: Eric: Love your work. If you had to invest in 3 prospects (not including Roki) that are likely to contribute this year, who would they be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Matt Shaw, Jacob Melton, AJ Smith-Shawver

Bob: Given the volatility with teenage prospects, international signings seem to be a a real crapshoot. Do you know if there has study correlating signing bonuses and career WAR?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bonus amount was the most influential and telling variable last study I became awareof, but keep in mind the variables we have for that market are limited. Teams are tracking contact rates, hell even growth plates and stuff like that. I don’t have anything like that. Height, weight, DOB, what academy they train at, bonus amount…pretty limited

Bork: FYI Davidi just reported Guardians sent the Jays $3.75m

Eric A Longenhagen: Yowser

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess that’s happening, I don’t think they’d be trading for space unless they knew they had him, wouldn’t be doing it on spec in a race with the Dodgers.

Bork: Oh cancel the $3.75m, it’s just cash. I’m smart.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, see, I can get got in these chats

Adam: Paul Gervase really looks interesting to me. Does he get a shot at the Majors this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s behind he guys already on the 40-man, but conceivable he gets his first taste in ’25, think he’s a really good bet for ’26

Kate: What’s your read on JR Ritchie after his return from TJ?  Velo didn’t seem all the way back.  Is this the new normal and we need to knock him down an FV tier?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll probably hold it where it is and knock him down if it isn’t better during the spring.

TooDamnTall: Is projecting a pitcher to increase velo less likely now that most/all of been through a pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: It depends on the individual, even the ones who have been in a lab aren’t necessarily done growing as people, physically or personally.

Pinstripe Perry: Is there anything specific you’ve noticed with how NYY is developing catchers defensively? Seems they’ve been able to repeatedly help both MiLB and MLB guys improve (Wells, Trevino, etc.). Is that an org skill or happenstance?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Tanner Swanson is good.

Kate: Is Drake Baldwin a Murphy injury away from being the everyday starting catcher in Atlanta?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bet he’d split time with Chadwick initially, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok, someone just texted me that the 2 mil Cleveland sent to Toronto was all of their remaining pool

Jays Fan: If the bluejays sign Sasaki would we kiss our entire class for the upcoming period goodbye or do we keep some

Eric A Longenhagen: This is becoming the question, right? How much money is it gonna take to sign him, and how much can you acquire to try to keep Polanco. If you can’t keep him, who has the money to go get him? Cleveland would have been my answer but now they’re out of money.

Dan the Man: Jac Caglianone or Nick Kurtz in a FYPD draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kurtz

Eric A Longenhagen: Betcha Kurtz is the first bat from 24 to get there

Alex: Should we be scared of Ethan Salas‘ production last year? Or should it be explained away as him being a teenager in A+ ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little of both, if you’re wondering for the purposes of fantasy baseball then you should move on from him, it’s a defense-driven profile.

Alf: I assumed that Toronto (or LA) would be giving Sasaki all of its international bonus pool money (“committed” or not). Are you saying that’s not the case?

Eric A Longenhagen: We just don’t know yet. If the guy didn’t care to make $200 million two years from now, what’s the difference between 3 mil and 7 mil to him?

&Bullwinkle: Robert Calaz is a guy who has shown up on several of Top 100 lists this offseason — He’s #10 on your 2025 COL list after being a way-too-early pick-to-click last offseason. What is keeping you more reserved in on him after his 2024?

Eric A Longenhagen: The K’s, he has so much swing and miss. The exit velos are huge but so were Maikel Escotto’s.  Plus I was told by a scout not with COL that Calaz had shoulder surgery after the season. My Rockies source won’t confirm it to me (either way) and I don’t understand why.

Gram: Any path to the majors for former Baller Elijah Pleasants?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s okay, has the body to add velo if he keeps at it, hasn’t been in pro ball on a strength program all that long. Been on my radar since his Dream Series bullpen, hope it works out for him.

Matt: Any updates on the lawsuit against the Angels for reneging on agreements with DR players from a couple years ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I bugged Passan about it this week and he had no updates on it, either.

sliptoad: It seems like you’ve been the high man on Melton for a while, the consensus on the Tucker trade was that Smith easily slotted in at the top of the farm, compared to other writers are you higher on Melton or just lower on Smith?

Eric A Longenhagen: Higher on Melton

Lord Thunder: Will Thayron Liranzo stat at catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe so, he’s enormous and has a hose

Eric A Longenhagen: the rest I think will be fine with time

victoria: You know Lynch was special because he had a beautiful head of hair pushing 80

Eric A Longenhagen: Truth, and kept it all even though he was a human chimney

Finnegan’s SSW: Yankees and Dodgers (and Jays) haven’t announced any international signings yet, correct?

Eric A Longenhagen: As of my last check, correct.

Andrew: Your writeup of Emil Morales last year was glowing; anything from his performance in the Dominican Summer League that raises long-term concerns?

Eric A Longenhagen: sub-70% contact in the DSL is a yellow flag

ALF: How good/bad would a player have to be in a small sample size like the AFL/LIDOM for it to affect your opinion on him? I guess things like velocity or swing decisions matter more than the actual results at that point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct, there are data points you care about in a sample that small but they’re all talent related more than performance related.

Dan: Am I misremembering or was Anthony Volpe a bat first fringe defender as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: In HS I had glove-first, contact-oriented low-end regular eval

Thomas: Do you have a good memory for names in general, or is it just your constant baseball work and exposure that gives you the encyclopaedic knowledge?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m pretty terrible with them, honestly. Something about sports makes that stuff easier to stick for me. I’ll need to remind myself of someone’s birthday but I know every relevant Purdue pass rusher since I was born.

Blahblahblah: Could you guess the top 2 SPs in the minors in SwStr% last year (min 70 IP)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooooh, uh, i’ll say Jedixson Paez and Jaden Hamm?

AL Central Casting: Top Three David Lynch movies?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mulholland Drive
Blue Velvet
Eraserhead

Blahblahblah: I also noticed today that IFFB% in the minors is way inflated compared to the majors. Why would that be? Classification issue?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potentially, it’s a good catch, might be dependent on the catching player’s position rather than the hit location/

Frank Booth: What does Caden Dana have to do to raise his game to the next level? And what chances does he have at doing so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s already really good, just keep that changeup coming.

Wade Miley: Hi Eric–Off the back of your head, any noticeable risers or fallers from 50 FV grade or better from the 2024 draft class? Looks like Nick Kurtz rose and Charlie Condon fell, but any brewing thoughts outside of those two?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cags’ AFL look scared me

Eric A Longenhagen: Feeling okay about the rest as I glace at it

Mr Burrito: First, always look forward to your  work. The prospect lists are amazing. Second, regardless of Sasaki’s landing place, are the Dodgers the best at pitching development? I would’ve said so prior to last year but eleventy TJ surgeries give me pause. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: LA is up there, CLE, NYY, TB… you can probably guess the ones who are good. Boston…

Bencle Mens: Are you gonna get on Blue Sky, or are you out on social media?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I’m at a restaurant and I know the stuff it’s serving is bad for me, and into the restaurant come so many douchebags such that i want to leave, should I go to the restaurant next door serving the same stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m out.

Eric A Longenhagen: It creates perverse incentives for media, and I can’t take the chaotic nature of the scroll. One thing is about mass death, the next is Livvy Dunne’s abs, the nest is a puppy that needs a home, the next is a funny thing Bill Burr said… I can’t.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta split. Meg and I will update the prospect lists that havealready run to include the new Int’l guys over the weekend, so look for that…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m working on Yankees and Phils prospect lists, those should drop next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Watch a David Lynch thing this weekend, even if it’s just him cooking quinoa on youtube.