Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/10/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, y’all, it’s cloudy and rainy here in Tempe as the weekend slate has been disrupted by the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla. We need to precip, though, so it’s all good. Looks like starters for tomorrow’s game got moved up a day? At least it appears Rhett Lowder has. Let’s discuss…

Hazmat Corntail: Where do you see Jonathan Long fitting in long term with the Cubs, or does he need a trade? He seems pretty blocked right now

Eric A Longenhagen: Multi-positional part time corner guy

Ben: Hey Eric, hope you’re doing well. Who are you most excited about seeing in the AFL and why is it Alfredo Duno?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s honestly just the guys I haven’t seen, or at least haven’t seen in a while, which is almost always players from orgs based in Florida.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, and perhaps this was already reported but clearly I’m off the socials so I don’t know, Josue De Paula has a hammy thing and is probably a couple weeks out.

Jason: Hi, just want you to break down the difference between low contact power hitters Bryce Eldridge and Lazaro Montes. Why is one so high and one not ranked? Not debating the rankings as much as I’m curious what the difference is. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. Eldridge contact data: 67% overall, 78% in zone
Montes contact data: 62% overall, 68% in zone

Eric A Longenhagen: For Eldridge we at least have several examples of players with contact rates that low who thrive:

Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Leaderboards – 2025 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Whereas there are none at the rates Montes makes. Like zero.

Miller: Would it be out of the ordinary for a new PBO/GM hire to enter an org and say, I wasn’t as high on certain prospects in recent drafts that this team selected so let me use their value right now to flip for players I am more fond of?

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda think this happened in San Diego right after they hired Preller with Trea Turner etc. I do think there are players in a new PoBO’s org who they probably have preconceived notions and opinions about, and that one might be more inclined to move on from the players you don’t like so much

Eric A Longenhagen: I would be

Guest: Any new trends or developments that you are hearing that might be the next analytical leverage that teams try and explore?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna read Henry Abbott’s new book and ask people about it

Guest: Is there anything new you’ve seen or intel received on Kaelen Culpepper based on the season he had?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just the full season hit data, which is pretty positive from a contact standpoint and a shade below average from a power standpoint. My assessment of his defense is stronger now than when he was in college. Good prospect.

Kate: Not sure how much dope you’ve gotten on this year’s DSL crop so far, but curious your thoughts on Kevin Alvarez‘s 2025.  To my eye, his year looked pretty good from a stat line perspective as he made a ton of contact and appeared to have a good approach and his huge frame would seem to portend big incoming power.  However, I think I heard the EV data was pretty meh.  How much do you rely on body projection for pop with a guy like this and how much do you take into account the current EV data (which obviously needs to be adjusted for age and level)?

Eric A Longenhagen: His current EV data is kinda meh but not *bad*, and you’re right that an adjustment for the level alone needs to be made because guys in the DSL aren’t throwing all that hard….

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s super duper projectable, I consider him an offseason top 100 candidate. My grade when he was coming out was pretty aggressive and he’s at least held serve on that score.

George: I was very interested by Paul Tobinis interview on DC sports radio yesterday. Talked a lot about better marrying player acquisition with development. With your knowledge of the current state of the system and structure of the Nats, how long would that sort of change take to see results? Is it so broken that it’s more of a 3 year process?

RS: How are you ranking Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernandez, and Jhonny Level? Seem like very different paths to success for each.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oops, I’ll don one after the other…

Eric A Longenhagen: To George’s question: It depends on what kind of player dev infrastructure they already have in place, both from a data warehousing and processing standpoint, as well as a technological one. If at least some of that stuff is already in place then I think we’ve seen from some recent regime changes, including in Boston under Breslow, that pitchers can be changed and improved really quickly. I would say by 2027 we’ll wanna start looking at WSH arms with an attempt to recognize patterns of changes, maybe more thru 2028 as far as draft strategy is concerned.

Eric A Longenhagen: For RS: Probably in that order. I could see Level sneaking into the back of the 50 FV tier, I thought he had the arm for SS but not all of my sources think he stays there. He’s a smaller kid. Josuar was a little over-aggressive for me this fall but holy cow the tools, especially the defense. Looks like young Lindor on defense.

Kate: Did you get any looks at Letson after he came back late in the year?  If so, how did he look?  Is this a guy we’re always going to need to ding FV-wise until he shows he can handle a certain amount of innings?

Eric A Longenhagen: i didn’t see him. Lemme looks at the scout WhatsApp group real quick from the time period before he returned to affiliated ball to see if his name is on a lineup card from that week or two, I could maybe find someone who came across him…

Eric A Longenhagen: But you’re probably correct about the innings load thing. Much as I’d like the Picks to Click feather in my cap, the approach of having durable, proven, near-ready guys in the top 100 (like Parker Messick entering the year, for instance, and not some hard-throwing teenager in rookie ball) has been more correct

Eric A Longenhagen: Letson is still maybe two years away from debuting, too. He’s a post-2027 40-man add.

Devon: Hey Eric! I was curious about how you handle reports on makeup or behind the scenes stuff. Are there instances where you are privy to something that you might not be able to put in your written analysis?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. It cuts both ways, sometimes you learn the kid is great. For the bad stuff it can be complicated to cover because a) in attempting to do this job at the scale I do, I can’t get thorough makeup reports for every single dude, and so applying it only for some guys feels wrong….

Eric A Longenhagen: b) sometimes you feel icky for ding’ing a guy’s grade based on stuff he’s done because then you feel like you’re quantifying the infraction. I did this with Verdugo a few years ago, wasn’t great.

Eric A Longenhagen: c) also I try to avoid anything that remotely resembles wrecking or seriously disrupting someone’s life for clicks or clout, especially when they’re such young people who are inevitably going to make mistakes. Sometimes qwhen the draft is involved and a player is falling for this or that reason you have to cover the infraction then, because it’s having a baseball-related impact, I’m not just solely standing in judgement of whatever it was they did.

George: Really appreciated your piece on Fall league guys. I’m interested in whether Seaver King has shown anything more. The rest of his draft class seems to have passed him by, even if he was a relatively raw college bat.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s going to be an interesting one. Scout here already recognize the tools and athleticism, he hit the Charro Lodge the other day. I’ve had guys suggesting this and that fix to his swing to get him going… I know he had a rough year but I don’t think he should be dismissed so quickly.

Mark S.: Hi Eric, how far off were either Elmer Rodriquez-Cruz or Jhostynxon Garcia from your top 100? What gains do they need to make next year to enter that territory? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Password’s chase is the lone thing there that I think will make his production fluctuate quite a bit. Elmer will probably be an offseason addition. He’s a skinny, frail-looking guy but was pumping 97 late in the season, he has the tools to get lefties out even though he’s breaking ball-oriented and throws them a ton of curveballs.. he’s good and likely debuts in 2026…my kind of pitching prospect

Alex B: Is Tucker Musgrove a guy you could see rising up prospect lists this next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: No doubt, touched 100 for me this week. Secondaries are just okay.

sodo mojo: Have you been able to see Farmelo in the AFL?  Obviously a huge talent but he has been derailed by injuries so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep. Physically as impressive as any guy out here, let’s see how the swing plays pretty decent pitching (for Fall League) and how he looks on defense. He’s gonna K a bunch but if he’s getting to huge power and playing CF, that’s okay.

Alex B: Who is the higher ranked prospect this time next year: Kash Mayfield or Kruz Schoolcraft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Schoolcraft, just physically overwhelming.

Guest: Who do you think competes for ROYs next year? guys who may debut/be good but not enough games?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hesitate to answer considering no person on the planet, not Chad Patrick’s parents nor Isaac Collins‘ lover(s), nobody, would have put that group at the top of their list. I might end up getting my preseason Drake Baldwin pick right, though.

Tom C: Any thoughts on River Ryan going into ‘26? Feels like its a make or break season for him in a crowded rotation (albeit one that WILL offer him opportunities)

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him throwing a bullpen at Camelback a few weeks ago and he looked kinda heavy, honestly.

David: Good Morning, no questions today just hope you’re doing well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, you too. Mostly I am.

Cam shafts: should I look at Danny Espino as all or nothing in 2026. Gotta take the training wheels off now. Reminds me of Danny Salazar in talent and storyline. Also, is my bro love for cam collier and cam camitti justified? Thank you

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet Espino breaks camp in Cleveland’s bullpen. Looks pretty good, shot to be a set-up guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Cams: Collier is maybe the most interesting and important eval in the entire AFL. I’ll save my thoughts for when they’re more complete. His swing is weird but he hits, he looks good playing D at first base. Need to see more power production from him in real life if he’s going to be a good big leaguer, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cam Cam looks good, think they mighta tweaked his delivery already, lemme check my notes because I took a little pass at him when I did the end of year 100 update…

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: You can see the arm angle is lower now than in HS and (it’s tougher to see the change) but he looks more cross bodied now, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still digesting these changes, he’s a good prospect of course.

Colton: Is there a correct way to assess prospects trade values? I have a bet with a friend that thinks Brendan Donovan is going to fetch a team’s top 5 prospect in a trade over the offseason. I am on the side that he will not and he thinks it’d be a settle if they move him for only that

Eric A Longenhagen: There is always stuff happening in the background that impacts prospect return. Often that involves older, higher-paid players and teams paying down their salary to get a better prospect return (or not). In Donovan’s case the quick and dirty calc would be: He’s been a 3 WAR player pretty regularly for multiple year. That’s something like $36 million in value before you adjust for his salary, which has been minimal during that span. Now he’s entering arb, so his salary will be higher and there’s a little less “surplus value” there, but he’s still really good for whatever price, I think you’re looking at $20+ million in surplus value for the next couple of years, that’s like a Top 100 prospect and another good piece or two for three years of that guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: If we’re assuming the top 100 guy is a 2-ish WAR producer annually

Erik Bedard: Hi Eric, would you ever consider doing prospects defense videos for other positions that aren’t shortstop (outfield, second, third, first, catcher)? Those shortstop vids were so interesting and am curious for more as someone who didn’t grow up playing baseball and don’t know what I’m looking for

Eric A Longenhagen: I will, probably CF and C

Jonathan: If Cam Schlittler were still prospect-eligible would you still slap a 50 on him or would it be higher after seeing him succeed against MLB hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’d be a 55 or 60

Dan’l: Mr. Goold reported the Cards have heard calls about catcher. What would you do if you’re them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Move Herrera

Oaktown Blues: Is it normal for a guy like Max Muncy with some big league experience to go to the AFL? Does this indicate the FO’s confidence in him, a lack of confidence in him, or neither?

Eric A Longenhagen: Neutral. Every year there are a couple guys in his situation who come here just to get reps. He looks comfortable so far, he should dominate this league.

J: Where are you in your evaluation of Chase Burns after first full pro season?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s awesome

Dusty: Thoughts on Wander Javier, and what’s his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: A classic, like hearing an old top 40 song on the radio for the first time in forever

Guest: Are there fatigue issues for players participating in the AFL after a whole season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of the guys sent here were hurt during the year and picking up innings, so for now I’d say, “no”. Ask me in November, though.

Guest: the philly folk seem to be really bringing the hate right now for rob thomson. what do you think of how the series was managed? obviously has a great record, tons of experience even in player dev

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re pissy because last night sucked, they’ll forget about it shortly. The guys on the team seem to really care about Topper and vice versa, they lost the series because guys didn’t much perform in key moments.

Eric A Longenhagen: I cooked for Mega and Emma Baccellieri and they got to watch me gnaw my fingernails down to the cuticles and then feel terrible for Kerkering, followed by more warmth than is healthy for a man to feel about someone he doesn’t know when Realmuto immediately consoled him.

War2D2: Kevin Alcantara had a tiny cup of coffee at the end of the year, but looked like he wasn’t necessarily overmatched (4/11, 4K). Barring a pillow deal situation, it seems like a foregone conclusion the Cubs will cut bait on Tucker and RF will be Alcantara’s to lose next spring. What’s your forecast for him? An uneven but “fine” Shaw-esque rookie campaign, or more rough waters? His strike zone is so big, and his swing is so long, it seems like he’s going to need a lot of runway to make it work.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think your’e right and it makes more sense for a team in the earlier stages of their building phase to give him that runway

Jim: Do you think Jack Perkins can hold up as a starting pitcher, or is he better suited for the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think ‘pen but I have scout sources who disagree

Lord Thunder: Higher ceiling … Willits or Cholowsky? Most likely to stay at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Willits has the better hit tool, Roch is a 7 defender

The 6ix: What are the chances that Y. Curet improves his control enough to be a viable MLB pitcher? The raw stuff seems to be there.

Eric A Longenhagen: It is but I thought he looked pretty awful when he returned from injury this year. Zero feel for location. Was a top 100 guy for me entering the season.

Lord Thunder: Does Jimmy Crooks have the same limited offensive ceiling of Patrick Bailey?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not a bad comp

Eric A Longenhagen: might run into 15-20 bombs at peak, Hedges like

Mark: I know you dont love fantasy baseball questions but I have a conundrum, who do I want in my dynasty league De Paula or Hope.

Eric A Longenhagen: De Paula

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys can ask fantasy questions, it’s fine. I get people play and love it, I started playing too (yes I won the league)

sliderguy35: willing to believe the data on yohendrick pinango? or is the visual still holding back from a bump in ranking

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, swing doesn’t really allow him to pull the ball at all. Data has been kinda nutty for a couple years now, though.

Goule: Sasaki someone you will move back up the board after this postseason performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: He graduated. If he stays in relief his whole life he’ll need to be Aroldis Chapman to justify having him as high as I did. Glad he looks healthy and stronger.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: Trying to calibrate some pop up 2025 guys… Who’s an SP, and who stands out from Sean Liñan, Braxton Bragg, Ethan Dorchies and Gage Stanifer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Linan looks more like Nabil Crismatt to me, low velo, great changeup, backend starter swingman type. Dorchies is a nice long term project, love his delivery, think his fastball punches up, secondary performance was just ok…

Eric A Longenhagen: Bragg I think is a 40 athlete but he was throwing hard and has a real three-pitch mix before he was shut down. he could be in the big late next year. Less starter-y than Dorchies in a vacuum but way closer to the bigs…

Eric A Longenhagen: Stanifer is a monster fastball guy, slider played like a plus pitch too, delivery is a little weird and he’s not a great strike-thrower, more on the SP/RP line for me

Eric A Longenhagen: but threw over 100 frames this year

sliderguy35: how worried are you about murakami’s NPB contact rates if / when he comes over next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty worried. Whiffing at a 50% clip against secondary pitches. Need to take a look at him in a broad sample and revisit him on defense. Okamoto is better, I think.

victoria: This is a prospect chat…. but what are your game 5 predictions?

Eric A Longenhagen: DET Skub + bullpen gets them there, worried Miz comes out wild but I’m honestly not sure about that NL game.

RAH: Update on Braxton Bragg – he had TJ and will miss most if not all of 2026. He may return to game action, but I doubt he makes it to the bigs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Right, he was a july TJ, thought maybe he’d have room in August, September to be back?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah, it was way at the end of July, yeah then basically out

Guest: Why hasn’t Cleveland been more excited about Wuilfredo Antunez?  He hardly rates a mention.

Eric A Longenhagen: Medium physical prowess, nutty launch, like 23 degrees, no idea how that’ll play, that’s in Ryan Schimpf territory.

Razor Shines for all: Will we be getting a Rule 5/40 man preview???

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna do a roster crunch piece, yes

Eric A Longenhagen: Rule 5 preview, nah. Waste of time imo

Eric A Longenhagen: write them up after they get picked, otherwise you’re writing up like 20 guys for everyone one who actually gets selected, not the best use of anyone’s time

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta split. Thanks so much for coming again this week. I’m going to prep for the day’s AFL stuff, see you out there.