Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/28/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, y’all. Howdy from Tempe, where I’ve got yesterday’s Combine rolling as we chat (Stewart and Pearce, wowzers) about the Rays, and whatever else you want. I might cut things a little short today because I have to go scoop my car from the shop before today’s games. Let’s get after it.

Jays Fan: Who’s the next team that will drop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tigers and Braves next two, depends on whether James and I write fast together (Tigers) or I sprint on my own (Braves)

Jason: Former prospect question, do you expect Corbin Caroll to have a more normal season after last year’s rollercoaster?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

Cubs: Is 2nd base best fit for James Triantos long term? If the Shaw experiment at 3rd works out then they may already have Nico’s replacement in-house.

Eric A Longenhagen: Left field for Triantos

James W: Do you need someone to look at your broken Gamecube? Can’t promise that I’ll be able to fix it but happy to try.

Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda do, there’s a used game store near the FanGraphs Desert Oasis Compound called Fallout Games, and I was gonna take it there and see what they could do. It’s the best strip mall in AZ, Fallout, Bosa, Ramen, card shop, smoke shop, comic store

Dom: When Aiden Miller takes over SS for Philadelphia, does it push Turner to CF or LF?

Eric A Longenhagen: CF for Trea if they make him move, don’t think Miller is any better at SS than Trea is and think it’s at least equally as likely that the dominoes impact Bohm rather than Trea

TIMMAY: Does Carson Williams take the SS job with a hot spring or is he destined for AAA to start the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Educated guess based on Rays m.o. is that he starts in Durham

TIMMAY: Alex Freeland plays where when he is called up? SS moving Mookie to 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see how Mookie looks and holds up to the beating at SS over a multi-week period, I guess. I think Freeland debuts as a SS

Ricky: Do you have any favourite post-hype sleepers among prospects or early-career MLBers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Volpe

Eric A Longenhagen: Colt Keith

Eric A Longenhagen: Birdsong

Eric A Longenhagen: Maikel Garcia, I’d monitor him

Eric A Longenhagen: Cleveland Luis Ortiz

Billy Bob: Is Brandon Sproat on the same kind of trajectory Christian Scott was on a year ago, to be a relatively early call-up when injuries inevitably require more arms in Queens? Or does his command need more refinement?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s ready to get outs right now. Probably comes up in the injury scenario.

Steve E: Eric, as a guy living in the PHX area, how many of these prospects do you expect to see personally this spring? Any surprises that jumped out at you so far among the NL prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll see a ton, minor league ST schedule stars March 8-11 depending on the team, some scrimmage-type activity has already begun. Some days I’ll have my eyes on four or six games.

Eric A Longenhagen: NL guys? Hmmm. I thought Brannigan looked good yesterday.

Johnny5Alive: How much does the organization impact FV grades? For example, would a chase Dollander have a higher grade/rank if he was in a different organization known for pitching development, i.e., marlins, dodgers, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: It shouldn’t, it’s be a nightmare to change them just because a guy changes orgs, the difference between scouting and predicting. Readers should feel free to make those sorts of adjustments for their dynasty drafts or whatever

Chase: Good morning Eric. When Ozzie Albies graduated, he was a 70 hit / 30 game type of hitter (per FG) and it seems he almost completely flipped his game from contact oriented to pull power slugger in the majors. Do you see anyone currently in the minors who could pull off a similar profile change? Do you think retrospectively scouts could have seen this coming from Albies? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say it was just a mis-eval.

Shirtless George Brett: Am I crazy to think there is a decent chance that by this time next year Austin Charles is the top prospect in KC’s system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mmm, I’d say “non-zero chance” rather than “decent” but you’re not crazy.

Bencle Mens: Hi Eric, it was noted in the comments of the list and on Effectively Wild that there are a large number of catchers on the top 100ish. I think you gave an explanation that made sense (not that an explanation was necessary). But I have a follow up question. How will a challenge system or ABS system affect the number of catchers who “survive” prospectdom? Framing and receiving might be the least physically damaging parts of catching, so should we expect to see more first-baseman sized guys behind the plate as throwing and blocking are more important?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt we get full ABS, and think the challenge system is nearly perfect. It add nuance rather than stripping it away the way most tech integration does, and allows us to retain framing as a relevant skill for all but a couple of pitches per game. You could argue challenging pitches will *add* a way for good catchers to impact the game, rather than removing some of that stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: The other thing that will always create industry demand at catcher is injuries. It’s brutal back there.

Justin: Josue De Paula’s future hit tool grade dropped from a 55 at the midseason update to a 40 now.   Could you talk a little bit about this change?   Was this more about new information that he provided in his post-July performance, or was this more about you re-thinking flaws that always existed?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, his swing looked so weird by th end of the year. Guys this age are going through so many physical changes that they sometimes trend in strange, unexpected ways. I describe it in his blurb, but the way his base degrades as he swings is just weird looking to me, it scares me

Something clever: Do you feel your scouting knowledge gives you insight into who will win the HR derby every year? Moreso than the average fan?

Eric A Longenhagen: lol no

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, I’d never have bet on Mookie winning it or anything like that

Pocket Watcher: What pushes Xavier Isaac into the 50 FV tier and onto the hondo over Spencer Jones? Their offensive reports read very similar to me (damage on contact with an inability to put bat to ball) but the latter has much more value with regard to defensive fit and baserunning.

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s fair, the only gap there is I have a legit future 80 on X’s power

Eric A Longenhagen: but X is one of the last 50s and Jones is a 45+, so the gap between them is razor thin.

Sir Nerdlington: How does baseball iq factor in to scouting given more teams are slashing their scouting ranks (e.g. Cubs this year)? Seems like the incentive is for showcase coaches to teach to the test instead of developing baseball players.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s definitely more of a focus for actual scouts than it is for me. Not because I don’t value it, but just because I’m trying to corral this enormous player population on my own. Scouts who cover three or five orgs, who are sitting on one series for a whole week, can better identify those little things.

Steve E: Eric, what’s your estimated rollout times on the prospects lists of the remaining MLB teams? Is there a pattern to any of them as far as posting dates?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just go as fast as I can without compromising quality or analysis or writing. If I’m doing a list and a half per week I’m on a good pace. Teams who train on the Gulf Coast side of FL are what I’m currently working on. DET, ATL, TOR, BAL, PIT, BOS, MIN remain of that group. Then I’ll move to the West Valley AZ group, LAD, CHW, CLE, CIN, TEX, KC, SEA, SD and I’ll be scouting those systems in real time during minor league ST so the info is fresh af

Afterthought: Hi Eric, just wanted to thank you for this chat and for going on Rates & Barrels, love hearing you talk baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks to DVR and Eno for having me and for the kind words

Kris: Who has the best chance of ever generating positive career war btw Warming Bernabel, Peyton Graham and Adam Hall (I have a roster cut or two to make)?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess Graham

Cromulent: More post-prospects por favor! Thoughts on Brett Baty and Curtis Mead?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t worked on Baty in a minute, Mead looks like he’s gotten more stiff and I’m kinda worried about that one

Sad Jerry: You seem to be considerably lower on the Mariners farm than basically everyone else that evaluates prospects. Is there something that stands out that makes you not as high? They are ranked as high as the #1 overall farm in other places.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t like Montes and Arroyo the way others do, it seems.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Brandon Young sat 95 in his first spring training appearance. I know the entire deal is maintaining that velo on a starter’s workload, but … !!!!

Eric A Longenhagen: yay!

IndyMets: I’m looking for clarification on an answer from the prospect chat.  Someone had a gripe about Colt Emerson’s ranking.  You responded stating he projects as a top 15 player at his position, just by being on the list.  You put at least 15, maybe more catchers on the list.  How can they all be top 15 at their position?

Eric A Longenhagen: Remember PAs from catchers are spread out differently, and some of those guys are just gonna be good LFs or 1Bs or something else

Eric A Longenhagen: Emerson is fine, he’s gonna swing underneath a lot of fastballs away from him, imo. That’s how it’s looked again this spring.

Dude Love: Has Bremner’s early struggles given you pause that he’s a legit early pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re handling him with extreme care, it seems. It’s too early to worry like that, let’s just see how it trends, teams don’t have to make a decision for five months so why should we be so declarative right now?

Adam: What scares you about Brailer Guerrero’s offensive profile?

Eric A Longenhagen: Late to the contact point, corner OF, injuries have limited his ability to actually play

Eric A Longenhagen: super strong guy, exciting power, not sure it’ll actualize

Eric A Longenhagen: good prospect tho!

Yuniesky Betancourt: Who makes more of an impact in the majors this season, Yilber Diaz or Will Warren?

Eric A Longenhagen: Warren, think he’s the first one up if one of their guys gets hurt. Diaz the field is more crowded

Josh: What’s a realistic inning floor/ceiling for Jackson Jobe this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: 20 or so more than last year

Adam: I know you hate having your rankings compared with other lists, but Aidan Smith’s placement is much lower. What are you seeing differently?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do hate it because idk how you expect me to read the minds of what others are seeing knowing that i haven’t (and shouldn’t have) read their reports.

Eric A Longenhagen: I put in his report what I thought

Eric A Longenhagen: doesn’t look like a CF to me, his swing is odd and I worry about the hit tool. he pulls the ball a lot so someone somewhere loves him

Eric A Longenhagen: he might get stronger, etc. i see why the Rays traded for him, he’s a toolsy project imo

Harry: Harry Ford has taken a tumble in most prospect lists. Do you still believe in him or have you significantly downgraded him at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: second division type, still a big leaguer

Eric A Longenhagen: wont hit enough to be consistently in the top half of that position group

Cub Fan and Bud Man: You have been Supportive of Brady House’s development what chance does he have of being similar to Eric Chavez peak years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scary chase, more in the Casey Schmitt area for me at this point

Adam: As the high man on Will Warren do you feel a little vindicated by how nasty hes looked this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, it feels neutral, he looks like he did last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: like, “correct” is how I feel

Eric A Longenhagen: i feel the way I do when I haven’t checked on the cat’s location in a minute and see that he’s asleep on the couch. like, “good”

Pocket Watcher: Shemar Stewart first EDGE off the board after Abdul Carter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta feel like his lack of production means he won’t be

Eric A Longenhagen: Walker, if you consider him an EDGE

Refugee: You ever think about posting an FAQ?

Eric A Longenhagen: tess kinda did one

Eric A Longenhagen: A Visual Scouting Primer: Pitching, Part Three | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: and I did a video Board tutorial at some point, which is like a tool FAQ

ACC: Just curious who do you think will be most productive rookie this year for team.. fantasy wise… Kristian Campbell??

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not Campbell. Crews

Guest: What’s your take on Marek Houston’s start to the season? he looks like he’s added some pop with the new weight. would you say he’s got 45 or 50 power now? Would you move him up on the draft list today? Are he and Dean Curley still behind Aloy to you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely has the skills to be a top 3 pick if the power part sustains, agree he looks a little more physical

Justin: We are only 180 innings removed from when he was a prospect so i’ll go ahead and ask.   Think bobby miller still ends up a decent mid-rotation guy when it’s said and done?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has plateaued long enough to worry he’s a reliever

Justin: He’s old, but is only 114 innings into his mlb career – do you think Osvaldo Bido is an okay backend starter for the Athletics going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do

Homer: How many stolen Bases would you project for Chandler Simpson during his peak season?

Eric A Longenhagen: 90

The Prospector: I’m curious – how is the work split between you and the other writers that come in?  Do you kinda merge your grades with whoever you’re working with?  Or do you assign grades and just get help writing the blurbs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the experience level of the person involved. In James’ case he’s a better writer than me but is newer to the scouting part. There are times when I’ll paint over disagreements with my opinion because this is my shop, and there were times when Tess and Travis had conviction that I bowed to. It’ll be important for James and Gerth to feel the failure of being wrong in front of everyone.

Billy Marlin: Any backfield pitching jump forward chatter yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cameron Sullivan

comish4lif: Greetings Eric. In a deep 12 team, NL only fantasy league. From the available undrafted minor leaguers, who are your top 2 picks from: Wetherholt, Travis Sykora, Cooper Pratt, Jesus Made, Alex Freeland, Drake Baldwin, Zyhir Hope and Konnor Griffin?

Eric A Longenhagen: Baldwin and one of the high-upside young hitters

Steve E: So it seems like the short synopsis on Carl Crawford’s touted son, Justin, is that he can’t pull fastballs with his current swing?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a correct interpretation of the text.

Bencle Mens: I don’t think there is an easy fix for the international amateur system right now. A draft is bad in so many ways. Would an academy system akin to global soccer be a good solution? The big hurdle there is of course that major league teams are finding every excuse to offload the costs of their talent development.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree with you, idk a lot about the soccer system, though…

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe I’d give career death penalties to people who I found to have contact with players prior to a certain age?

John Olerud: Thanks for all your hard work on these lists, Eric! To continue on the question about the Mariners system, I honestly appreciate your hesitancy to include them among the top teams, which helps to temper my own expectations. That said, even in your podcast interviews, I do seem to sense a hesitancy on your part to list them among the better developmental teams, despite their recent, obvious successes (especially on the pitching front). I know the Ms owners leave a lot to be desired, but I was just curious if you are also still skeptical on their developmental team, and if so why?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Mariners *are* among the top teams. I just don’t think they have 8 top 100 guys or whatever. Player dev: Max Wiener left, how much of what he was bringing sticks there even though he’s at Texas now? Not doubting it, just a significant thing that changed fairly recently.

Justin: Do you have any hope left for Liover Peguero?

Eric A Longenhagen: not really

ricky smith IV: any chance we’re all too low on Johsynxston password garcia and he’s something like avisail garcia but consistent

Eric A Longenhagen: The chase portion of his game means there will probably always been variance a la Avisail

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay I’ve gotta go. Thanks for stopping by, check out the FG YouTube channel and please consider a subscription to our website. Note that we have college stats rolling out on the site! Yay! See you next week.