Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/13/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where the temps are starting to crank to 20+ degrees above what is typical for March. I’m sure it’s fine, my dad says this is just cyclical.

DR: Are the Yankees doing something specifically bad with their high dollar international talent?  I know the fail rate is pretty high when considering a 14-17 year old population. But it seems (perhaps because NYY prospects get more publicity generally) that they have had significantly worse outcomes among their high dollar guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreeing to deals earlier and earlier opens you up to more risk of failure. It’s already a volatile market due to the youth of the players on signing day, the error bar is bigger when you’re reaching verbal agreements with 12- and 13-year-olds, to say nothing of the ethics of it.

Seth: If you’re Steve Cohen, should you leverage your immense wealth to find advantages beyond the field, like building an electrical substation near Dodger Stadium?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have a robust scouting staff even as teams like the Cubs and Braves hemorrhage scouts. Start cultivating and/or understanding talent in places that are either largely unscouted (like Africa) or places with a finite amount of space, like Asia. Obviously, the Dodgers have already manufactured a revenue and talent stream from Asia and have a head start in Africa. Better get going.

DR: Does Vance “Spring Training Babe Ruth” Honeycutt’s absurd ST output allay any fears that came up during his bad 2025?  I know Aberdeen is a terrible place to hit, but he was bad everywhere. I don’t think anyone who saw him in Aberdeen would’ve predicted this many HRs in 2026 as a whole, let alone ST

Eric A Longenhagen: He struck out SO MUCH last year, you’ve gotta let it air out over a larger sample and see what happens.

Will: Have you learned anything eye opening from your How’s my Driving?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do a better job identifying guys with 70-grade command or breaking pitches.

Sidd Finch: Are there any high school juniors you’re particularly excited about for the 2027 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Carter Hadnot

Baseball learner: Sounds like the Yankees system is light on purpose? Like the strategy is “trade the guys who probably won’t make it slash the ones we don’t need for big league players we might need now”? Do you think you that they are running out of what to deal for on

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there is an elevated sense of urgency for Cashman to keep his job, and also some “we don’t really think this guy is going to hit, let’s trade him while he has value” to it.

Kelly Clarkson: Any popup prospects piqued your interest this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies A-ball kids not named Ethan Holliday looked good this week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Brito, Arguelles, Andujar

Erick: if the A’s are frisky, what do you see as the ETA for de vries?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be this year if he keeps looking like this

Spring Breakout Games: What players are at the top of your watch list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone who was a Pick to Click

Dylan: Has your view on any prospects been significantly changed by spring training? Do you take spring training at all seriously when looking at these guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not from a box score performance standpoint. Physical growth during the offseason, added velo, new pitches… that stuff I care about.

szakyl: What’s a reasonable expectation for DeLauter’s average PA per season?

Eric A Longenhagen: 450

Dorian Soto: When do you get eyes on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I go to Pennsylvania April 2-10 and then Ft Myers April 10-??, I need to get my hands on Extended ST schedules for Florida.

Erick: I know he’s a graduated prospect, but will warren’s stuff+ appears to be up significantly this spring. is this a blip or has he made positive changes?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he looks great but you’re talking to the guy who has historically been high on Warren.

ZH: Why is MVP Baseball 2005 still the greatest game ever made?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, Breath of the Wild is pretty rad.

doughboy: after the smoke has cleared after the 2025 season, how do we make sense of Jackson Jobe‘s FV? His stuff+ on all pitches were league average to plus; but he wasn’t missing as many bats as you’d hope. There was some talk about his limited arm extension and fastball being too true. What do you anticipate from him in 2027?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess we’ll see, but I think all the tinkering that was going on during the last couple of years was maybe a sign the Tigers didn’t think things would work as constituted.

Oaktown Blues: If a prospect who previously was in the DSL gets some Spring Training ABs in AZ, is that a good indicator that the team plans to bring them stateside to start the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: If a guy is up here he’s almost certainly going to remain up here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Rayner Arias is the only one I can recall who went back for a bit.

Kate: Did something change with Tornes’ profile that moved him from a 45+ to a straight 45?  Or was this just kind of re-calibrating how to value these kinds of far off guys with a lot of questions to answer?

Eric A Longenhagen: 71% contact rate in the DSL is a little bit scary, likely corner guy. Still looks like a first round HS bat but probably more toward the back half than inside the top 10, which is more what a 45+ is.

Kate: Is there anything we can look for in smaller guys with meh pop coming out of the draft to guess at who will actually develop meaningful impact?  Thinking about a guy like McGonigle.  I tend to miss on this profile of smaller, good hit tool guys who end up developing pop no one saw coming.  Like looking at a guy like Gavin Kilen and wondering if something like that might be in there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hip/hand separation, maybe an uptick in measured bat speed if we have access to the amateur number from showcase/college tournament stuff.

Wood: Do you have any updated notes on two Nats prospects Luke Dickerson and Marconi German?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nats are on deck for mid-April update, I’ll see three of their affiliates in PA and maybe their Extended group if Miami brings enough arms up from the D.R. for me to drive across the state for a few days.

Eric A Longenhagen: So for now I’m fine sticking to what I wrote last list cycle.

Erick: BG discussed this in his chat, so figure i’ll get your view on it too: Painter’s fastball shape appears not to have returned yet even after phillies said he spent the offseason working to get back to his pre-injury arm slot. If you knew – with certainty – that painter’s pre injury fastball shape and velo are not returning would he still be 55? a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Shape AND velo? 50

Baseball learner: Odds Lagrange is the Yankees setup man come September?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a little too specific. Odds he’s a meaningful part of their bullpen? 25%? He’s a postseason 40-man add so if he’s one of their best 12 arms end of year he should be up (unless they’re not contending)

Oaktown Blues: I think I remember you saying a bit back that the A’s prospect list was ticketed for late Spring, after you got looks at some of the guys – is that still on target?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, they’ve been my focus this week. Astros publish next, I know Meg and gonna be swamped with editing preseason content and list publication will take a back seat while that stuff rolls out but I’m officially working on A’s, Cubs, Rockies (BG and I both), SFG (ditto).

Bernie: Eric!  I’m in a deep dynasty league and your work has always been incredibly helpful — thank you!  Are there any recent draft picks/IFAs attracting buzz on the backfields beyond the marquee guys (in my draft, top 2 rounds of MLB draft and top 10ish DSL guys already gone)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Well the Rangers two-way kid from Korea pitches and leads off today so maybe we’ll get some dope there. We’ve only had two or three days of minor league games so far…

Kate: What do you make of the new Zac Veen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think it made a difference in how quickly his hands get going.

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages: Does Vahn Lackey end up a first rounder?

Eric A Longenhagen: Serious question, because I’m curious: Are you Allan Eric Carlson?

Eric A Longenhagen: (and yes, I love Lackey and think he goes inside the top 10)

Eric A Longenhagen: Because your IP address sure puts it in play, would be a blast from the Crashburn Alley past for you to be in here.

ZH: Random 40+ or below hitter or pitcher that makes the leap to a 55 by end of the season? Can be a Pick to Click but the ones you just have the most gut feel for.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yairo Padilla. Physical, switch-hitting MIF? Sign me up.

War2D2: Eriiiiic! Just my weekly nag asking when the Cubs list will be released. Can we expect any pop-up talent that was off the radar last time through? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ll probably move up the queue here because I’ve been told they’re not playing any Extended Spring games. Gotta get in what I can during minor lg ST.

jk: Who are your favorite 2026 impact pitching prospects who haven’t debuted yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Gage Jump, think the A’s are motivated to move their pitching quickly.

Rickey: what do you see holding Luis Morales back (beyond the ballpark). Seemed to have plenty of stuff coming up, and did fine once in the majors last year. Many seem down on his chances of being a No 3-4, but what do you see as the limitations on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I really like him, he’s crude but I buy that the stuff and athleticism will allow him to flourish over time. Just not the most polished/poised guy yet.

Oaktown Blues: I know that in order to succeed with a <70% contact rate, you have to hit the ball really hard. This Spring, Henry Bolte has an average EV of 96.5 and a 59% hard hit rate. Is that enough oomph to make up for his 68% contact rate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen games and he’s looked pretty good, is he on time enough to elevate the ball a little more? -1 degree avg launch last year…

Crabcakes: Did 2025 change your opinion on Nate George at all?  I think you were skeptical of his ability to hit, and then he hit something like .330 across a couple levels last year.  Did he satisfy your concerns, or is gonna get exposed against better pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m comfortable taking the under compared to what Chat seems to think. Extreme oppo spray, I worry how he’ll handle actual MLB quality fastballs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Toolsy kid, though. Just copying and pasting my Aidan Smith takes from last offseason.

War2D2: I’m going to be in Scottsdale for my yearly trip to spring training next week. I’m going a couple weeks later than I usually do because of family commitments. Was really excited to see that instead of the 80° weather I’m used to it’ll be 110°. Yessir, reeeeaaaally excited.

Eric A Longenhagen: Our average temps are 80 this time of the year, truly a terrifying sign of things to come. MLB should start preparing to fight with golf courses for water here.

Sandwich: Which orgs do you think do the best job of spreading out their risk in the IFA market while still finding upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee

Buff: Lots of buzz about Roldy Brito. Have you seen or heard anything about him that would move him up on the Board?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on our top 100. Skillful kid, like him in CF and at 2B, grinds out tough at-bats. Beeg thinks he has a Zobrist feel to him, I dig that.

Opifijikl: You mentioned last year that you thought the Red Sox were telling their guys to swing less, or that they had premeditated swings and misses. I believe a Laurila interview w/BOS player development refuted that. The data seemed to match what you were saying though, so do you have any guesses about what’s happening there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s absolutely true for Anthony and Campbell

Steve O: Why’s Franklin Arias rated so highly? He doesn’t look like he’ll hit much and he doesn’t walk. It’s hard for me to reason that he’s the 14th best prospect when he doesn’t hit and he’s not fast. I’d think if any team rated him that highly the Red Sox should’ve trade him yesterday.

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus shortstop defender with plus (maybe better) bat to ball skill.

Tony Graffinino: Favorite personality or funniest prospect you have scouted extensively?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jake Burger. Hilarious guy. Lawrence Butler also seems like a blast. I also find the uncontainable aspects of Abner Uribe’s on-field antics to be funny but he’s not *trying* to be funny.

Matt: Is Misiorowski the dream for Carlos Lagrange? Lagrange seems to be in a very similar place now to where Miz was two years ago. Seems like you’re already marginally more bullish about his ability to start than you were a month ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: Deliveries and fastball angles are totally different so I would say they aren’t great comps beyond the velo. Lagrange’s changeup looks like it’s going to get to a better place than Miz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Would agree that Lagrange’s mechanical consistency is better (or at least my assessment of it is indeed more bullish)

flightsongs: Which prospect name have you chosen to have rattling around in your brain as like a fork in a garbage disposal as you one day shuffle off this mortal coil? Mine’s “Ibandel Isabel“.

Eric A Longenhagen: Franklin De La Paz

Eric A Longenhagen: Ibandel Isabel has a musicality to it that absolutely caused it to pop into my brain at random, too. It’s really amazing you’re on the same wavelength.

Eric A Longenhagen: And in my head I’m saying the “b” kinda like a “v”

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages: Given all the Epstein stuff, the live streamed holocaust of Palestinian children, the state of youth here going on 3-4 generations…other than being old and increasingly senile in the suburbs, what makes it possible for sports consumers to ignore the economics anymore? IFA bonuses, draft bonuses, caps on both, salary caps/“luxury tax”, options, later debuts, service manipulation normalized, etc etc

Eric A Longenhagen: ^This is why I was wondering if you’re AEC because even though your worldviews don’t seem to align you do post a ton of stuff like this in chat. Like a lot. It’s a good question, though. I think a lot of us are made numb by how pleasurably distracting our entertainment options are, and it’s tough to mobilize yourself (let alone enough people that would actually facilitate change) when we’re sitting around watching sports, or marvel movies, or reality TV or whatever it is. I’m as guilty as anyone.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yay!

Eric A Longenhagen: Couple more, then I’ve gotta handle some car stuff (lock housing busted on the GTI) before I go to the field

Genghis Khan II: I just can’t get down with the Dax Kilby hype given the SSS. He might be A-Rod, but 18 games with a .431 BABIP in A ball? 18 games! This looks and smells like stereotypical Yankees prospect hype.

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree let’s not go crazy putting a 70 on his hit tool or anything for the reasons you said, but I had that guy stuffed pre-draft and thought he looked pretty good playing SS in pro ball. That’s what moved the needle for me was the defense.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: Have you ever done a “how’s my driving” on your projected pitcher roles?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’d love to do that and analyze everyone’s performance on the team lists instead of just the 100s

Crabcakes: I have a frequent debate with my SO about pro athletes and mental health.  I say guys who struggle under pressure get weeded out long before they make the highest level because there’s always pressure in sports.  My SO points out that we regularly see guys appear to choke.  Add some perspective for us please, do you see prospects either fail to advance or advance in spite of struggles with the pressure to perform?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it depends on the person. I agree that there’s always an element of pressure and some of the very fragile folks get weeded out at a certain stage. But I also think perception impacts how anyone handles a given moment. Like if you have fear of flying, it’s arguably irrational based on the actual rate of deadly crashes compared to driving, but lots of people still fear it and I’m not skeptical that they fear it despite its irrationality. I think that can apply to sports.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like Jorge Lopez, I worry about that guy. He made it here but still seems to melt.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok friends, time for me to go. Great chat this week, let’s have another next Friday!