Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/21/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, starting early because I have much to do and there are already lots of questions in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: My work slate: James Fegan and I are working to wrap up to Blue Jays list, which will run early next week when Meg has the bandwidth to do something other than just PPRs. After that I’ll be solo’ing the Orioles list. I’ve been on a backfield or two every day this week to lay track for the lists that will follow Baltimore: CLE, LAD, CHW, CIN, MIL…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m writing my PPR (relievers) and my chunk of a Bold Prediction post, both of which will also run next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I might cut short chat at like 45 min today because I’m going to start my day at either Camelback Ranch or in Maryvale and then wrap it in Maryvale for the night big league game, and I’ve gotta write betwixt and between those.

Birds: Zach Fruit has had two pretty impressive spring outings, the second against a lineup of BOS regulars. Stuff+ grades strong from public models. Can he stick as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fruit’s stuff is way up (one of a couple Orioles for whom that is true) and he’s been sitting like 97. Looks reliever-y to me, but it’s great that his stuff is up this much.

Oh Mayer: You raised questions in your Top 100 report about Marcello Mayer’s ability to hit secondary stuff. Now there’s talk is Red Sox land of Mayer being the surprise candidate to beat out Campbell, Grissom, Hamilton to start the season at 2nd base. Have you been able to see if he’s changed his approach this Spring? And if so, do you buy this short sample as sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s still swinging over the top of secondary stuff this spring. Body looks great, definitely had a productive offseason. He’s better than Grissom, who is not a good player and probably won’t be on the 40-man for very long, and a better, more polished defender than Campbell. I think Marcelo will probably always swing over the top of secondary stuff, but still hit for enough power to be a good, productive player. It wouldn’t be crazy if he broke camp with the big club.

Wood: Do you publish Florida camp lists first since you mostly get eyes on the Arizona teams in the spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do it in whatever way allows me to maximize real time info. I’ll do BAL and TOR and then table Florida clubs while I publish all my in person notes from this spring in the AZ team lists. Then I’ll go to Florida for Extended ST/FCL and Florida State League stuff to do the same for the remaining FL org lists.

Archer: Are you more conscious about what you write in your prospect summaries now that David Laurila is showing them to players years later?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do you want me to be?

Andy: Your write up of Jesus Made said he is arguably priority number 1 for you on the backfields during spring training. What have you seen from him?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s real. Medium framed guy, great bat speed and rotational explosion from both sides of the plate, skilled defender with enough arm for the left side. He and Luis Pena are both gonna break camp with the Low-A roster and I agree that’s correct for both.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: What do you see as the Blue Jays biggest impediment to developing pitchers?  Almost all of their pitching prospects end up hurt, busting, or not very good if they do make the Majors.  Is a more of a selection issue, something on the development side, or just an incredible run of bad luck?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there was a stretch where they somewhat ignored some of the visual tenants of scouting in favor of an extremely data-heavy approach, and with pitchers I think betting on athletes and bodies is the right way to go about it.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s one thing to “install” (so to speak) the traits you like in a good athlete, and another to look for those traits already in a guy like Chad Dallas or whatever.

Eric A Longenhagen: Having said that, I think their best prospect right now is a pitcher (Jake Bloss)

Eric A Longenhagen: And Brandon Barriera looked great in his first bullpen back from TJ last Friday

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not a bad system, but I understand why people would be frustrated with Manoah’s extreme decline, etc.

Platypi: How far has Jacob Melton fallen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Platoon corner guy, 45 type, not terrible

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty much what you expect when you pick someone late first round

Cold Turkey Stearnes: That said, which Blue Jays prospect (hitter or pitcher) do you see poised to make the biggest jump based on what you have seen in spring/on the backfields?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still have a couple scout sources to talk to about Jays guys. I really wanna see how Yorman Licourt does in year two. I need to watch Roden in CF this spring to see if that’s gotten better (he’ll move into the 100 if it has, still a good player if he’s a corner guy) Bloss has been pumping 96 with ride, up to 98, and throwing strikes his last two outings.

Guest: When is the next episode with Paul dropping?

Eric A Longenhagen: My schedule has made it tough for us to sit and record for 2 hours at a time, tbd

Nick Z: Is there an old prospect whose hit tool you were an ardent believer in that never put it together in the show?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Luiz Gohara because a scout and I were talking about baseball in Brazil the other day, and he came up.

Preller / Bendix: Elias is gonna come calling this year, for King/Cease/Alcantara… who should I ask for to round out a trade and supplement the headliner of Mayo or Heston?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jordan Sanchez is the sleeper with big ceiling in that system.

Eric A Longenhagen: Baltimiore’s

Darren: Thanks for the chat!  Have you seen Cags in Arizona?  In your write-up you indicated he would benefit from a toned down swing.  Does it seem like anything has changed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, three times now. Swing does look more compact to me, at-bat quality has been better too.

Danny: Do Spencer Jones or Roderick Arias look any different this spring? Any confidence based on their spring training looks that they can close the holes in their respective strike zones?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen Arias. Jones’ swig is definitely different but let’s see how the contact rate manifests over a larger sample.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor: Is Jack Hostetler going to be a thing? Any other totally off the radar guys popping up this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, he’s a thing. Milwaukee dev churning them out. 97-98, plus-flashing changeup, breaking balls are below average. Undrafted out of Whitman. Good for them/him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bishop Letson and Tyson Hardin also arrow up guys in Brewers camp

Eric A Longenhagen: Watched Lucas Wepf sit 94-97 at Dodgers camp yesterday, heavy split. Lower lev RP look.

Eric A Longenhagen: Luis Mey threw strikes for like the third or fourth consecutive time I’ve seen him, touched 102, he’s ready.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cleveland has some fun lower level hitters again. Caceres, Martinez, Rodriguez, Fernandez

Jace, the Mind Sculptor: Updated thoughts on Curtis Mead with his strong spring and added muscle? Or is it just too small a sample?

Eric A Longenhagen: Glad he keeps making adjustments, just need to see how it plays over a long period at this point. I’m officially in “let’s just let it play out” mode with him.

Pop: What are your thoughts on Tyson Lewis? Could he a prospect who gets a ton of helium?

Eric A Longenhagen: Struggling to keep his head on the ball in my looks, tooled up guy with huge contact risk

mario: Eury Perez was a big deal coming up, but injury-interrupted debut season and then TJS, feels like still an unknown. But just a couple years later it seems like there are 20 prospects throwing 100 mph like he did coming up. Where would he rank with this year’s rookies?

Eric A Longenhagen: I want him to be my son.

Squiz: Who is a player you’re lower on that you think could surprise you the most this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aidan Smith looks stronger

Tom M: What player has most surprised you (either positively or negatively) from what you have seen this spring? And what attributes (such as bat speed or velocity) do you look for that you believe ARE indicative and aren’t just small sample size.

Eric A Longenhagen: Physical conditioning and changes to mechanics are things I’d consider sticky at this point. Even velo spikes are suspect right now, everyone is rested. Angel Genao hosed someone from the hole and checked the arm strength box in a new way for me. Josh Stephan velo way up without sacrificing command it seems.

Eric A Longenhagen: Parker messick arm slot is higher

Do you have any Grey Papelbon?: Any pearls about the scouting of Yairo Padilla that can be shared at this time?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure he’s going to hit

Eric A Longenhagen: Consider me the low man, I guess, until I sit with STL for an extended stretch. He’s asked about in chat basically every week.

Nils: With a few weeks passing since you published your top 100 prospects, any players you now have regrets for not including?

Eric A Longenhagen: George Lombard looks much stronger and will move in when I first update it (probably end of ST)

J: With International deals signed years in advance, what can a new International Director (ie Pete Putila in Atlanta) do?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lots of big plyers commit years in advance but it isn’t like 100% of everyone bonus pool gets done that early. There’s still plenty to do with six figure guys, older pitchers, etc.

wheelhouse: does ben rice’s new exit velo bump make you any more inclined to think he’s a potential regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Exit velo bump in what way?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average, max, a certain cross section?

The Prospector: I saw that both Brandon Birdsell and Ben Shields have hit the 60 day DL.  Do you know what ails either or both?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not, sorry

Rupert Jones Fan: Is it time to start moving beyond thinking Kelenic will ever reach potential? Why weren’t his fatal flaws ever considered when he was ranked as a top 5 prospect? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, move on. Way less able to cover elevated fastballs than we expected. Go look at his swing and miss heat map, he gets beat in the zone constantly

Dodgers Blue: Eric – curious about your thoughts on Victor Scott’s dominating spring and Jordan Lawlar‘s demotion.

Eric A Longenhagen: Vic’s swing looks totally different than before but I’m not sure I love it for him since he’s a speed/contact guy with middling bat speed. Now it looks like he’s trying to elevate everything? idk it’s weird

Eric A Longenhagen: Lawlar when you look under the hood at his data and not at his slash lines in Amarillo or whatever hitter-friendly park, he’s been kinda meh. Is that because of his injuries, or is that his talent level?

LiamHicksFan123: Liam Hicks dark horse ROY with his impressive springs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too many other really talented dudes

Razor Shines on us all: Which of this trio of post-prospects has the best chance to vest their MLB pension? Ez Duran, Ed Julien, or CES?

Eric A Longenhagen: Duran

Wood: Have you got any notes on Steven Zobac of the Royals?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked great (which day was it…uh…..Wednesday. 94-96, hard slider.

Lord Thunder: Is Thayron Liranzo a better bet to be a catcher long-term than Josue Briceno?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, Josue is more skilled back there, Liranzo has the hose and freakier size/power

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: unabashed fantasy question.  Trying to future value Schwellenbach versus Roki and Jobe and Painter.  Are the latter three potentially much better than Schwelly?   Bonus question.  Sounds like Roki not fully developed.  Fastball shape may require a third pitch.  How likely do you judge his ability to add a new pitch and how long until the Roki Death Star fully operational?

Eric A Longenhagen: Roki’s heater has lost some vert compared to Japan, he’s going to have an adjustment period to the different baseball. He’s been more in the 15″ vert area. But the guy has a freaky split (it’s basically an 85 mph knuckler), his slider is better than it was in Japan already, he’s reaching back for 101…he’s gonna be fine

Chucky: Gavin Cross KCR thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lower end platoon corner guy

Nick B: Hey! Huge appreciator of all you guys do. What factors do you think play the largest role in a prospect’s 90th percentile MOVING, rather than them just achieving it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Their org’s dev team

ClubberLang: I own Boston Baro in a dynasty league.  Does his spring breakout performance and added weight make you more bullish on his future power (and overall) potential?  I know he was p2c…. Also same question about Mikey Romero, if you have the time!

Eric A Longenhagen: More “confident” than “bullish” I’d say on Baro. As you note he was a Pick to Click to be on next year’s top 100, added strength just puts him on that track rather than trending north of it. Romero’s hands in the box look rad, I agree. Shot to be on there next year, too. Let’s see how the defense looks.

Mike from Philly: Curious if you have a favorite Phillies prospect outside of the top guys like painter, miller, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m an Aroon loon.

Lord Thunder: Tough camp for Edgardo Henriquez. Do you think he’ll pitch meaningful bullpen innings for the Dodgers this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe late, it’s his foot not his arm.

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Alan Roden’s spring? Has he improved a lot since last year or still a likely platoon corner OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll update his report on the Blue Jays list for Mon/Tue, just wanna see everyt CF rep this spring. Watched every swing from ST on Wednesday, think my offseason report (which you can find on The Board) still holds water in that regard.

My name’s Jeff: Do you see Cole Carrigg having enough game power to hit 20 homers in the majors?  Does he end up strictly as a CF, or does he continue to bounce around?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a skeptic as far as his offense is concerned. Want to see him rove on defense if I’m right about the bat.

J: Horton’s velocity is back to his pre-2024 levels. Is he likely to tick back up to a 55 if this sticks?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, his delivery scares me too mcuh to buy that he’ll do it in perpetuity. Still good.

The Prospector: There was an article on mlb.com that basically said the Brewers like Luis Pena as much as Jesus Made. Do you think Pena has that kind of ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re both rad, yes. Pena is the more mature defender right now. Made’s ceiling as a switch hitter tho….

Loser: What does it mean for a slider to have “depth”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The amount it bends downward is its depth

Dr. J: Have you seen anything from Jackson Ferris this spring that changes your evaluation of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely throwing harder than last year. Basically sat 93 in ’24, now more 95-96

If the Richard Fitts: Did you see Jarlin “The Leviathan” Susana in the breakout game?  Sounded like he had a hard time with the control.  With the way last season progressed, do you see him starting the season in Hi-A and finishing in AA, spending the whole season in AA, or other?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not because MLB.tv, for whatever reason, did not log all the breakout games in full. They have condensed games and highlights but not total games. I was bummed, and then taped whatever games replayed on Network to try to see as many as I could. I was at AZ games in person all weekend and only ended up watching TB/BOS, PHI/PIT, and TOR/MIN from the FL slate.

Guest: Love your work Eric.  The White Sox pitchers Burke, Smith and Taylor are getting buzz.  Similarly Roupp for SF.  Which seem the most impactful keepers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Astronaut Taylor

Eric A Longenhagen: Coasting at 96-97 for me yesterday, secondaries look great, up to 101 in the big league games. Smith and Burke feel like long term relievers to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: Roupp I haven’t seen but had him in as a 45 while he was a prospect

Thomas: Any surprises on the Blue Jays list? Guys you’re particularly high or low on?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig Grant Rogers

Eric A Longenhagen: Was encouraged by Maroudis’ velo before he broke

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Bloss, claro

Eric A Longenhagen: still not really on McAdoo

Eric A Longenhagen: Andres Arias me gusta

Nick B: For those of us on the outside, we have no frame of reference for why players like Chase Burns aren’t playing. It felt strange there was a big show of him being included on the Spring Breakout roster but then didn’t play. Does this usually mean a silent, non-major injury? Is it mechanical issues they’re working through?

Eric A Longenhagen: a great question that i also have

Eric A Longenhagen: haven’t seen him, was bummed he was listed second on their breakout roster’s pitching schedule and then didn’t go

JJ: Any good live looks at LDV or Salas this spring for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, that’s one camp I haven’t been to yet. Hoping they play SEA every day next week so I can double up them and TEX/KC

Eric A Longenhagen: Highway closures here this weekend are killing me

YormanTruther: Really interested to see the interest in Yorman Licourt. What you have on him cause I know he’s a old DSL guy who struck out a lot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Signed in May out of Cuba, I have no idea how often he faced live pitching prior to that. Super projectable, monster bat speed. Just an interesting guy to monitor in case his K issues were due to rust rather than talent.

Thinking about Jonny Farmelo: What is the history with baseball players coming back from ACL tears?  If Farmelo continued to produce at the rate he was last season and didn’t get hurt, how would that have changed his ranking/fv for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s maybe their most talented guy

Craig Yoho: Am I gonna break camp with the Brewers?

Eric A Longenhagen: You should, based on your injury history and stuff quality.

Ted: Is Ethan Pecko the next sneaky Astros arm to surprise and become a mid rotation starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good pull, I like him too.

RAH: Enrique Bradfield put his tools on display in the Spring Breakout. Will be up to a 50 for you? Cedric Mullins is a free agent soon. Fans want to know if Bradfield will be ready.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 45 on Enrique, good player but most CFs have more power than he does.

GA Blood: Are there any guys who are just fun and you want to see them succeed? I’m thinking of Cijntje, but he’s an extreme example.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely him, Chandler Simpson, Jose Rodriguez (Dodgers), Jusin Crawford, Endy Rodriguez, Zyhir Hope, Amador…so many guys are fun

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d love everyone to be good, big league baseball is just so hard

Daniel: Thoughts on Parker Messick’s increased velocity this spring? Felt like that was the missing trait for him to be a major league starter.

Eric A Longenhagen: To me the uptick in breaking ball quality is the actual headline there

Eric A Longenhagen: Everyone is throwing harder right now, wait til they get to inning 85

Pitching Ninja: Thanks for taking the time to do these.  They are very informative and much appreciated.  A young pitcher and a young hitter, Ryan Sloan and Josuar Gonzalez.  What do need to see specifically from each from a developmental standpoint to include them on next year’s top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sloan was a deer in headlights during the breakout game and was just all over the place. Stuff is nasty, think he needs to start in Extended and go to Modesto in May. Josuar I just want to see him face pro pitching and see how that goes for two months, and also see where SF deploys him on defense since he could be CF or SS

Dodgers Blue: In your opinion, is the return on a trade for Coby Mayo diminishing by the day for the Orioles?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, if he can’t hit these in-zone sliders then he can’t hit enough to be a 1B

Archer: Re: my question about Laurila’s articles. No, I think you’re very fair and respectful in your write-ups, I was asking more from my own anxiety that I would have if I were in a similar situation.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, it’s a great idea. I’m not precious about missing anymore. Like Bellinger loved my report but didn’t know I put Yadier Alvarez ahead of him that year. I also love an excuse to plug my old video into Dave’s pieces, which I did with Cease today.

D backs fan: Hey there Eric, hope you are ready for the high of 90s this week already. Thanks for all the work you do. Have you been to the Salt river backfields? Any info on D Backs guys early on, and early returns on the big ‘24 draft class for them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg yeah, I was gonna ride my bike to Sloan for Braves/Cubs and then take the light rail to Chase on Monday for the night game but now that it’s gonna be 97 or whatever ,that won’t fly.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not been to SRF backfields, sadly. Been all west valley this spring

Bencle Mens: Have you gotten any looks at college guys this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Barely, though I suppose it’s time to polish he draft list a tad huh>

Parkline: Is Payton Eeles a big leaguer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Eric A Longenhagen: second division 2B, 45 guy. like him, amazing story

Abba Zabba: As fans, we sometimes hear the term “top of the rotation arm” thrown around a lot.  Most fans that read a lot of analytical content know that true “TOR, or Aces” are very rare.  What arms on your top 100 would you consider to be true TOR potential?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Roki, Painter, maybe Susana. End of list.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay folks, that’s my hour. Great questions again this week. Please consider an ad-free sub to our site, it’s about a dollar per week. Look for the Jays list and other stuff I mentioned at the top of the chat next week. Enjoy the hoops and last ST games! bye bye