Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/11/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, everyone. Your boy woke up with a fever so there’s a chance I cut things short depending on how I trend over the next hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: Quickly, some links:

Eric A Longenhagen: O’s! Baltimore Orioles Top 50 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Giants tweaks and other stuff: Prospect Notes: Giants List Updates, the Quinn Priester Trade, and More | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox list is next! Very exciting.

Billy: Is Christian Oppor a dude? Looks like Hjerpe with more velo to my eye

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s isn’t quite the comp I’d make but his fastball is *really* sneaky

Eric A Longenhagen: Got a ton of whiffs on it this week from the Guardians kids.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a prospect

Billy: Anything on Dylan Questad?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was like 90-94 the other night, threw more sliders than heaters, got 11 whiffs. He’s okay, more depth starter look for me at first blush.

soko: at some point you compiled a video of nick swisher (?) saying “josh breaux” a bunch of times. is this important document still online anywhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, I did. I don’t know if I have that laying around anywhere anymore. I promise to go looking for it and republish it somewhere if I can find it.

Baby Cubs: How much can we take from Cade Horton’s fb velo/shape improvement through 2 starts?

Eric A Longenhagen: It looks great, he’s up to ticks and movement wise isn’t pronating as much as May ’24. Delivery looks a little less violent, too. Very positive.

Brandon Hyde: Super interesting Orioles list, lots to look forward to. What did you mean exactly when you said the O’s don’t have the kind of “high-end impact” that helps in October — young flame throwing bullpen pieces? Who would be your pick for a guy or 2 to be a part of a successful October O’s pen — maybe McDermott or De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah you’re right, I meant “starters”, but it’s totally feasible for either of those two guys or Fruit and Wells to be bullpen weapons by the end of the year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been yelling “Are you rrreeeadddy to smaaash some Fruit?!” all week

qane: On the edge of my seat awaiting the Red Sox prospect list. Two questions on the topic. (1) There are those who seem to think Franklin Arias is a year or two from being one of the best prospects in baseball. Him not making your top 100 would suggest you think otherwise. Love to know more. And (2) your inclusion of Jedixson Paez on your top 100 when few others have him even in the Sox top 15 was surprising. Do you have thoughts on this different perspective? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, I *like* Arias a good bit, he’s a real SS with a real arm. I am a bit more reserved about how much offense to project. He’s a smaller-framed guy with a mostly oppo-geared swing. I don’t see him as an Elly De La Cruz type of talent or anything like that, or a Willy Adames type where I’m ready to project big future power based on his build even though he’s young. There are more than 100 good prospects in baseball, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would it surprise me if Arias is on the 100 eventually? No. If he proves the offense part is real against better pitching, I’d be foolish not to adjust where I value him. But  at this stage he’s more in that 45 or 45+ area for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: Paez idk why others aren’t as on him, I can’t speak to that. It’s a good question for them.

Keith P.: Thanks Eric! Any chance George Lombard Jr. develops even an average hit tool? It seems like everything else is Grade 50 or better

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re hitting it hard enough you can make a below average rate of contact and still have a good batting average

MiLB: Who are some backfield guys that really impressed you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna send you to Chris Blessing’s podcast episode from April 2 where I go into detail on my spring looks. The Eyes Have It – A BaseballHQ Prospect Podcast – Podcast – Apple Podcasts

20longyears: Temarr Johnson has a ___% chance of developing into an above-average MLB second baseman.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 10%? Has to get to the power, I’m not sure he’ll be able to sustain a 15% walk rate in the bigs.

Eric A Longenhagen: Brandon Lowe is the positive comp to make at this point

Johnny5Alive: You had really moved Alex Freeman up your list prior to the season and suggested a possibility he even breaks camp. He obviously didn’t, but given the dodgers IF, chances he gets the call sooner rather than later?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought so for the reason you mention, but he was clearly pressing and striking out a ton all spring

Guest: Khal Stephen has looked super good through 2 starts. What have you been seeing?

Eric A Longenhagen: An SEC guy getting a Low A assignment should generate a big eye roll from everyone, but he looks pretty good. Sat 93-94 in his first start then 92-93 in his most recent one. Got a ton of whiffs on his changeup even though many of them finished in an odd location.

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks fine, he’s a good prospect, not different enough to move him unless the cambio keeps doing this for a longer period of time

Lord Thunder: Does Seattle prospect Ryan Sloan have a shot at reaching Jobe, Dollander, Painter territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s definitely nasty. Painter is tough because Sloan doesn’t quite have that size, but yeah he has star-level talent.

Han Tyumi: Who are the next couple SP prospects you see getting the call that you would roster in a 12 team roto league with QS? Excluding bubba chandler.

Eric A Longenhagen: Logan Henderson, Brandon Young, Cade Horton

Scotty: Eric! Luis Pena is lighting up A ball but hasn’t been hitting for much power at all. Thoughts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, it’s only a week, let it air out a bit.

Sky Bri: Poor baby. I’ll come over and make you feel better……. And you can tell me when the A’s will stop effin around and call up Kurtz…

Eric A Longenhagen: If you have bangs and tattoos we can work that out.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Kurtz stuff will work itself out via injury, I’m sure. Sodastream is crushing it.

D backs fan: Thanks as always for the work you do Eric. Hope you are surviving the heat? Has anything changed in your opinion on Ryan Waldschmidt or Slade Caldwell since the December write up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, still like both those guys a good bit. Waldy’s defense was shaky in my sparse spring looks at those two, saw them in road big league games at the very end. Slade plays his ass off.

MrMet: Thank you for everything you do. It’s been interesting to see how your valuation of Brandon Young has wavered between 50/45 FV. Your latest write-up sounds promising, but is it the lack of high-end velo that worries you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those are both good grades within a shade of one another, it’s not like one is good and one is bad. He’s going on 27 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had a the peak of a 50, but his years of control are going to encompass age 32-33 season and at that point he might already be in decline phase. The lone thing he hasn’t done is work deep into games for a whole season. This is his gamelog from last year: Brandon Young – 2024 Pitching Game Logs | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s clear that I really, really like him.

SalisburySteak: If you’re KC, at one point (if at all) do you start giving Caglione reps in RF? The obvious need on the big league team is outfielders. But at the same time I get that you don’t want to ask too much of him and mess up his development as a hitter, which is the first priority.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d just let him hit for now, and if by June he’s kicking the door down as a hitter, start with the RF stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: I generally agree with you though, and they need to have a premeditated plan for this

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Taxonomy question: is there a reason you don’t break out sliders between bullet/gyro sliders and sweepers the way Statcast has?

Side note: Michael Forret throws a kick change (he features in Tread videos on the subject), which could (?) explain the splitter-like movement.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t agree with how liberally Statcast throws Sweeper around, we only have so much space on The Board for different pitch types, and I’d be lying to you if I thought I could analyze each guy with this level of specificity. I have my own high speed cam, of course, but I’m not training it on every single minor leaguer and milb broadcasts often aren’t good enough for me to make a confident assessment based on grip and release like you could while watching a big league game.

Eric A Longenhagen: That Tread Youtube is cool, isn’t it? Thanks for that, my Orioles contact wouldn’t confirm that they’re teaching all kick changes to these guys, but that’s sure what it look slike.

Eric: What should we expect from Chase Meidroth?  Playing time, position in order, stats?  Not sure the power increase so far in AAA is sustainable with the EV numbers posted.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s good.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think James and I might reassess what I wrote from the time of the trade

Dan Grant: Thoughts on Demetrio Crisantes? I notice quite a bit of variance on him on the different top prospect lists.

Eric A Longenhagen: Smaller skillful guy, plus second base and first base defender but not a SS/3B for me. Swing tends to cut through the bottom of the zone, I wonder how he’ll handle elevated velo as he climbs. Good prospect, great pick where they got him.

Wannabe GM: So I found out my daughter’s science teacher is a cousin of Nick Markakis and she is the school’s softball team coach.   Pretty cool.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kewl

Vic: Will Shane Smith stick in CWS rotation?    Hope you feel better!!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s real, they made him better than MIL did, which is a great sign for that org.

Alek: How is ethan holliday doing? Its so hard to get reports on him

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, the high-profile HS guys reports are fully baked. Short of adding the pop up guys to my draft list. Aside from checking in on their conditioning/strength and such, I’m way more interested in how they did against their elite peers last summer than I am in watching them hit 450 foot tanks with an aluminum bat against kids throwing 82

Eric A Longenhagen: Ethan will go really high, maybe first

Eric A Longenhagen: He has enormo power but didn’t really get to it in games on the showcase circuit.

Dodger Fan: What’s it going to take for Hyun-Seok Jang to lock in his control and fully harness his stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just time, saw him twice this spring and his stuff was down, more 92-94

David: Seth Hernandez with his recent performances.. is he trending to be the favorite for 1-1?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be shocked if anyone took a HS pitcher first

Springfielder: Is there a more dishonest stat than Yohel Pozo weighs 201?

Eric A Longenhagen: lol, that’s maybe the craziest one.

sup3rjosh: How are you feeling about Dasan Hill early on? IIRC you had a first round grade on him last year

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw he shoved but there’s no broadcast so I didn’t double back to check on it. He sat 94.5 to 97.5 that day, though, so yeah so far good call by 2024 Eric.

David: Any thoughts on the Development plan for Jurrangelo Cijntje. Primary starter RH with a Left handed relief appearance between starts.

Eric A Longenhagen: WOoot, called it: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I had no advance knowledge of this, I was just spit balling on the phone with Jordan Schusterman and conceived of it as a possibility, and now that’s happening.

For The Birds: Just saw from Aram Leighton that Allsup averaged 96.5 in his start yesterday. 24 swstr% 10 Ks, 19 whiffs on 79 pitches (that’s a LOT if you look at how Os starters were limited last year in the lower levels). Do you have any takeaways from that start?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s true, he was 96-98 for most of it, cutter 88 or so, slider 80-82, Threw about that hard each of his first two outings. Careful not to get too overzealous with him, that body is scary and he’s had volatile performance in the past. Claro, I have a favorable grade on him, for a guy who was a 4th rounder last year to be a 40+ already is nuts.

Lord Thunder: Do you know what type of injury has sidelined KBO 3Bman Do Yeong Kim for all but 2 at bats this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone told me and then I forgot, I think Laurila knows.

planet zebulon: Is zebby matthews velo bump real? is the command effected? what does this make him now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s good, haven’t watched him though, he’s no longer a rookie.

notbrandonzink: Now that the O’s list has dropped, where do you feel that their system sits compared to the rest of the league? I’m used to seeing them with a slew of 50 FV + prospects, it seems like their system has thinned out considerably with promotions and trades and they are sitting maybe in the 7th to 10th range for their total system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote about this in the System Overview. I think it’s an above-average system. On average each team has three top 100 prospects, and they’re right there at that mark. The depth of 45 and 40+ guys is really strong and exciting. They were 6th last year with a “worse” system Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

Name Fan: What’s your favorite name (literally the name, not player) with a realistic chance to make the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dick Fitts is already there, Name Fan.

Tyler: How quick are you to edit your priors based on early season data? Ex: if a prospect hit a ball with max EV 5 MPH harder than their previous career high on Day 2, would that be enough to bump up their power grade on its own?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna see more than just one of those.

Eric A Longenhagen: When I’m souring data I’m souring a huge amount of it at one time and essentially calling in a favor to do so. I’m not about to do that after a week

Guest: Does the NCAA’s (pending) settlement that removes scholarship limits make it easier for Manfred + Co to further slash the minors even though it’s clearly harmed the development of young players? Cannot believe these owners insist on saving pennies to the detriment of the big league produt.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think MLB would like to outsource dev to NCAA as much as possible as a cost-saving measure. IDK how many owners view dev as an investment rather than a cost. They will need to be the ones who speak up about this during the next CBA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, thanks for coming here again this week, please consider a sub to our site if you don’t already have one. See you next Friday.