Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/6/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Tempe, where it seems like it’s time to pay the price for living here yet again. First day of the Combine is currently forecast for 115 degrees. I might be brief today to go finish up the Rangers list. Padres list went up this week, go check that out.

Matt: Any ETAs for the 2025 draft BOARD update and mock draft(s)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Post Combine most likely

Takao: This is more a “organizational question” than a prospect question, but Baseball America has ranked the Reds minor league hitting development the worst in baseball 3 of the past 4 years (with a bottom 5 showing in year 4). In your opinion, does that ranking accurately reflect the overall system outside of the obvious names (Collier, Stewart, etc.)? Worth noting, Reds fan here and I’d tend to agree that our hitting dev has been atrocious since roughly 2021.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’ve accidentally ended up with a lot of chase-prone hitters, or hitters with a consistently exploitable weakness that would make it hard for them to have sustained success. Lots of guys with “inside out” styles of contact there, too. Would I say their hitting dev is bad though? I think that’s as much of a black box as anything in dev, tough to say from the outside.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: I’ve seen reporting that FCL Orioles’ Joshua Liranzo‘s max EV is up to 106.8 mph, but I don’t really have context for that. Is that number good/average/bad for an 18-year-old? Do you know if he has good EV90 or contact data so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Here are average max exits by age:

Eric A Longenhagen: 26- 108.2
25 -107.6
24- 107.2
23- 106.9
22- 106.7
21- 105.9
20- 104.8
19- 103.5
18- 102.0
17- 100.5 (small sample)

Eric A Longenhagen: standard deviation industry-wide is like 3.5 to 3.8 mph, depending on the year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Those numbers are IN THE MINORS btw

Eric A Longenhagen: So you could say Liranzo has plus power for his age, but compared to MLB average max exits (108), he’s a shade below

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d 45 his present raw, 60 future raw, maybe more if you are inclined to project on his frame.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also btw I have him hitting a ball 111 this year

Takao: What are the odds that Tyson Lewis winds up a top 20 or so prospect in baseball by the end of 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see how his feel to hit trends. I’m apprehensive about that part. Definitely is a Top 50 prospect type of athlete, not sure he’s a good hitter.

Justin: Has Josue De Paula‘s added power in games come as a result of real physical / approach / swing development, or is it just small sample theater?  Also, when you say loose in the hips, is that good or bad or neutral?

Eric A Longenhagen: Super strong for his age, roughly average contact feel that plays up because he’s so selective. Loose in the hips is good. Hip/shoulder separation is a big part of baseball, and really most sports.

Brendan: In your time covering prospects/minor league systems, which team has altered their approach most drastically?

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas’ transition to the Young regime was pretty stark. Baltimore’s under Elias has been, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox and Tampa have probably changed the least.

Afterthought: Not a question, just closing a thread from early May: Luis De León is now back at Aberdeen and Miguel Rodríguez had surgery in April to repair a left ankle fracture (yikes) – thank you for doing these Q&As!

Eric A Longenhagen: De nada

Davis: When you consider both upside and proximity which of these arms rise above the rest? Jonah Tong/ Nolan McLean/ Emmet Sheehan/ Carson Whisenhunt and the Sacramento trio of Jumo. Morales and Perkins. Please feel free to discuss multiple. Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you just want Sheehan for 2025 fantasy purposes, right? He’s rehabbing now, he looks good, the big league team has a need of sorts, he’s been up before, the Dodgers are good….

Eric A Longenhagen: Comets vs. Aviators – 6/1/2025 – Savant Gamefeed

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s his stuff from his last rehab outing. Fastball basically ensures he’s going to be something good.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d put Tong and Whiz next, just more stable than the rest in terms of strikes (Tong) and workload (Whiz)

Jimmy Dugan: McGonigle gotta move up to AA right?

Eric A Longenhagen: They should have a fairly quick hook, but to me that’s like a month of play. Guy has mostly been hurt for the last two seasons and barely played at West Michigan.

Captain Moonlight: yo Eric – I always like the MLB calibration grades. Could you hook me up with current tool grades for like, Ernie Clement?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s such a weird one

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 70 contact and defense, 30 power and plate discipline

Nate: Bazzana wasn’t bad before injury, but given how a couple members of last years draft class have already made it to the bigs with a couple more tracking like higher value guys (Wetherholt, Burns)… did the Guards mess up at the top of last year’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think you could make the argument that if things actually click for Cags from a discipline/chase standpoint that he should have been the guy, in part because that’s exactly the sort of player Cleveland has been lacking for the last little while. But they’re a risk-averse org and this was the risk-averse pick. He’ll be fine, it’s far too early to judge, but I agree that speed/proximity should be a big part of prospect consideration.

Mike B: Thoughts on the impressive season so far from Josue Briceno?? Headed into top 25 prospect territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll end up close to that just via graduations ahead of him. Let’s see how his defense trends throughout the season now that he’s catching again.

Mateo: Raniel promoted to low A – is this the most electric bat through the org since Oscar Taveras?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s freaking awesome. Not projectable at all, he’s bordering on bulky already. Bu holy cow can he play. I had so much fun watching him last week. I’ll try to get video up asap, like tonight or tomorrow, so you guys can see.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely a top 100 addition when I get to the Cards list here shortly (next week or two)

Farce Majeure: How have you liked Alfredo Duno‘s season so far? Thanks in advance!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s still rather childlike overall, which has its merits. Feel for timing at the dish is mixed (saw him a bunch last week, too, at Jupiter) but his tools and size are jus so freaky. Just holding him where he’s at, FV wise, I was already irresponsibly bullish coming into the year.

Fred whitfield: any New names poppping up in the complex leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m digging the Yolfran Castillo & Devin Fitz-Gerald dynamic duo as I work on Texas. Might go out there tonight for one last look before their list publishes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yairo Padilla is really physical. He’s unpolished in all facets but is going to have rare raw power for a shortstop (if he can stay there)

Thomas: Thoughts on Addison Barger’s recent performance? Fulfilling the top end of his prospect projection, or playing out over his skis?

Eric A Longenhagen: He made substantive changes to his swing, I think this might be real uptick.

thelongball24: Victor Figueroa, 1B, SDP, is really buzzy right now after pounding the complex leagues and now Lake E.  Have you had a chance to see him this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, heavy-bodied 1B/DH only type with strength over bat speed. Honorable Mention type.

Refugee: Do you think you’ll ever leave Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the question is “when?” and what might catalyze it. Like if the landlord came to the door today and said, “hey I wanna sell this house” I might gtfo and be a Panthers season ticket holder somewhere in the Triangle months from now.

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhere with better air quality would be nice.

Brandon: How do you get better at scouting pitch shapes and sequencing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Do some prep before you sit and watch a game, and then really sit and watch. Use our charts and graphs to help. Like these:

Eric A Longenhagen: Edward Cabrera – Game Charts | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Sit with a pen and paper and not your phone and just see what comes out of you, chart something however you’re naturally inclined, just watch the ball move and the hitters react.

Nuxie: How easy/difficult is it to teach prospect X to lift the ball. It seems like quite frequently I see that player X just has to learn to lift the ball and the sky’s the limit

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes it’s a feel thing that will naturally develop over time, sometimes teams make proactive changes. I think the proactive change can narrow their focus too early and you lose ceiling. Like you’d never want to pull Miguel Cabrera aside at age 18 and tell him “only pull the ball, son”, you’re capping his ceiling as a hitter by doing that even if it’s strategically sound to apply that thinking to most of the hitter population.

Justin: Who do you think is the most polished, most mlb-ready hitter in the draft.  This is a Pirates question.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kilen

Mr Burrito: Any notable post prospect guys jumping out at you this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Maikel Garcia is going to keep getting better, I think Jonatan Arranda is definitely being seasoned by the hitting environment at Steinbrenner Field but he’s still quite good, I think Josh Jung looks better than his surface stats and still might improve coming off injury.. who else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Abner Uribe looks like it’s clicked

Hi Eric (Heart): There’s an epidemic of commenters saying “if I’m the GM” instead of “if I were the GM”

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d still first purge the people who call it “the MLB”

Nuxie: Which statcast stats would you consider the most relative to a prospect’s future?

Eric A Longenhagen: in-zone contact and either hard hit rate or EV90

Kevin: How has NIL and the transfer portal affected college and minor league baseball the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: The incentives of college coaches and recruiters totally changed. You basically need an amateur and pro scouting staff now. I don’t believe we’ve seen a drop in he number of high schoolers who sign for six figures or so, though my instincts would have been to anticipate a drop. Like my NIL deal at Louisville is X so you need to pay me Y, and you’re not going to so I’m going to school. That hasn’t really happened so far as I can tell.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are definitely examples of that, like the Levonas kid at Wake sounds like turned down north of $2 mil and instead went to school.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely more changes to college than pro due to the portal and NIL.

John: Is Carson Williams cooked? K% has been slightly trending down (to a still unsightly 36.5%) but his in-zone and overall contact rates are horrific. Not sure if he’ll even get to a .220ish guy with 30%K in the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t freak yet. Go look a 21 y/o PCA’s K% at Iowa.

Eric A Longenhagen: That glove gives him a huge floor, same as PCA. He’ll be given ample time to figure it out. Is it a blemish? Yes, and it means you shouldn’t expect a meteoric rise and instant big league success. But I think it’ll be okay over time.

Kevin: What do you know about baseball now that you didn’t know even a few years ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: The public rankings are a bigger aspect of teams’ models than I would have guessed. Visual machine learning capabilities are exploding. Kick changes, seam-shifted wake. Growth plates. Clover Park’s elevator shaft floods when it rains really hard.

Jon: Are you buying the Kevin McGonigle hype? EVs look pretty good and hit / discipline are elite.

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a chance, because of his lack of size, that we’re in Evan Carter territory where his skills are so special that, on paper, it looks like he has bigger physical tools than he actually does. But mostly I really like him and think it’s real.

Insert Witty Name Here: I have young sons who love baseball and if they pursue the game I’m going to support them.  But I’m also not wealthy.  Is there a distinct advantage for kids who have wealthier parents to become prospects, or can internal drive/work negate that advantage?  My initial thought is that being able to play travel ball and showcases pit you up against elite competition which helps development.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re at a disadvantage because the kids whose families who can pay to fly to Fort Myers or Lakepoint every month are going to get seen more and generate more data. Try to get involved in activities that are *scout run* and not corporate, so Area Codes or East Coast Pro tryouts and such. The good news is that college recruiters and coaching staffs have more incentive than ever to understand the juco talent environment, so there are many paths to a scholarship, etc. As far as effort and discipline are concerned, all I’ll say is I’d avoid specializing in baseball. Play a bunch of sports, do theater and other stuff.

Sodo Mojo: Montes has nothing left to prove in Everett right? I assume moving to a more neutral environment like Arkansas will give you a better view of his value moving forward.

Eric A Longenhagen: Correctemundo

Coach73: Is Emmanuel Rodriguez a lost cause? He is NEVER healthy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say he or Walker are lost causes, but I can see why you’re frustrated, in part because you’ve been primed by Buxton’s injuries.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’ve gotta run and finish the Rangers list. Look for that tomorrow morning. I’ll also have contributed to the mailbag tomorrow with some 20/80 scale explainer content. ta ta for now